A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Uh oh failed to break the 200. We're going to crash into the eye wall!
SPXBearish thrusting day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is waiting for retest. Closed above the 21 SMA but below the 233 SMA. Midpoint now above 10EMA. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1050.47). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint below 10EMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back below the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 86.21).
VIXHammer day. Midpoint below 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still below the weekly 3LB mid and below 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBearish harami day (or is it a head fake?). Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1188.60).
JNKSpinning top day. Tested the 14.6% retrace (passed) and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
HYG/LQDShooting star day. Tested the 50.0% retrace (passed). Gapped above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.806).
WTIBearish harami day. Trading above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Tested the 50.0% retrace at 75.69 (failed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 69.41).
BPBearish long day. Bullish harami star confirmation rejected. Closed back below the 0.0% retrace. Still below the 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.86).
GSBearish long day. Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10EMA. No test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. New low on daily 3LB (reversal still 144.95).
39 comments:
Thanks Amen-Ra
I think BP is a buy.
Hey Ironworker, thanks for the link on the other thread.
Thanks AR, still on a working vacation. Same old nonsense it seems.
Wunsacon,
You are very welcome. Pretty decent read til p.30 or so, then you just have to kinda "wade in". It became apparent to me in fairly short order that I should be thankful to have gotten my first look into EW now, at age 41. It may well take me 1/2 way from here to retirement age to be able to do anything useful on my own with it (and that's no guarantee). Best of luck.
IW
IW
@AR, that's view at the golf course - priceless.
@Nic, why is BP a buy? Seriously, I asked Ben earlier.
Could anyone explain to me how IYR (real estate) is bulletproof right now? Is it people looking for any yield at all or is it pure technical strength?
Who is ready for one more dose of cold steel?
BP is a buy from a technical perspective because it is at the 61.8 fib retracement from the 1992 lows to the all time highs. Sentiment is as bad as it could be and the market has essentially priced in a dividend cut. It is not a trade for the faint-hearted but small stakes it might have some nice risk:reward
18yr chart here: http://chart.ly/f6g72m
Nic
I don't know about BP. I'd wait for a daily 3lb reversal (if anything). Or a close above the 2009 low.
Ah, what a day. Greece formally acknowledged to be junk...can Spain be far behind with 20% unemployment? Our clueless leader wants another 50 billion of taxpayer money..we haven't a chance in hell of winning in Afghanistan...soooo reminds me of Vietnam...
And the democratic nominee for the senate apparently rode the short bus to school all his life. What a country.
Good day though. I am still much smarter than Leftback...
Ben,
I am a little worried that what I have been talking about (A-B-C with B being an expanded flat) is looking like highest probability count now. Also the Fibo days (which I'm sure I lifted from CV or Ra somewhere along the line) is now in to play. Shittiest thing is I did not have the testicular fortitude to stick by my count and now I put 1/6th in TZA around 6.75 today with 1/6 remaining waiting for a pop at the open or a decisive break of 1078-1080.
Looking at the NAZ and the RUT, one more push tomorrow would bring the whole stack of cards down or they may already be crumbling with a running flat complete????
The Wizard, Tiny Tim, and Ass-Kicker in Cheif should have known better - and I'm sure they did. I figure Johnny will be fooled one more time before it is all said and done. Most likely this fall.
If things play out as I expect, I am not going to be worried about my first 1/3 position too much longer.
Not sticking by my count above meant getting in waaaaay too early.
Neely is always good for some sensationalism....to get people to sign up for the Trading service:
From his weekly plot on gold:
"For a day or two, small wave-b (of larger wave-d) exceeded the high of wave-c. That implies a tiny amount of strength, which will increase if
small wave-c ends higher than small wave-a’s low. If price unfolds as expected, the stage will be set for Gold’s most powerful advance in
years. That Long trade will be managed in the Trading service."
He believes that we're in a wave-d of what will become an expanding triangle....so basically an ass-ripper of a wave-e higher is coming soon (next few weeks).
...let 'er rip
John Mauldin suggesting inflation? Just saw his newsletter -dated today, "Print baby print and the quest to buy inflation".
Talks about EU printing and all that money will find home.
Nic @ 7:17
Regarding BP... worth buying for those with "patient capital". (I suspect, however, that not many here have Warren Buffet-type patience).
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That Ashraf Laidi site is worth adding to the list of sites to visit from time to time (http://www.ashraflaidi.com/).
I have his book (Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis) which is actually not bad.
Wes @ 8:32
I take it your a surfing fan.
(I also have an appreciation for a good wave... for looking at and/or riding).
I like some the missives from this Reason.com site:
Why Doesn't Obama Save You?
DL
I am an Ashraf fan ... helped me a lot with learning correlations.
I am looking at everything and to be honest until SPX breaks out or breaks down the range 1040-1108 then its really anyone's guess where risk goes and that includes gold and currencies. My gut says higher because sentiment is so poor but is it poor enough?
I was watching EURUSD and SPX today and they were moving tick for tick in lockstep again. The Greece downgrade was the clanger there. But EURUSD was stuck below strong resistance at 1.2150 until last nights breakout and the downgrade didn't even send it down low enough to retest that so a squeeze on the cards perhaps.
...stopped me out
@DL -
yeah, i'm in to surfing...waves...oceans, etc..
I think we've discussed this before, but here's a message for professional athletes give the Vince Young experience:
1) don't carry a gun--if you feel the need to go out to nightclubs, bring a bodyguard with you
2) don't drive yourself if you're going out at night--there are only negative outcomes.
3) don't go to strip clubs--if you really need to see the ladies dance naked, arrange for them to visit your place. Party it up in your own crib. Maybe it'll cost a little extra, but it's worth it, isn't it?
4) Save your money. You'll need it. See Antoine Walker as a recent example of how quick the money can go away.
5) See #4.
The idiocy and immaturity of these guys is amazing at times...
Apologies. Musical Rambling to follow.....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Been on a bit of a Metallica Rush the past few weeks....
This sort of feels like Metallica's "peaking moment," similar to what Gun's N Roses experienced with November Rain and Estranged. It's getting a lot of play in our office right now: "that soothing light is a freight train coming your way."
No Leaf Clover with San Francisco Philharmonic
Compare and contrast that with this performance at the Monsters of Rock in Russia in 1991.
It's no wonder rock stars are so full of themselves. Who wouldn't be after that kind of performance?
Good news, everyone!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aenFYHtqk5Gw
You see? You guys worry too much...
AT - good day?
@wunsacon - remember, deflation first, inflation second...
Wes.
Everyday is a good day....I work in an office where guys can blast a little Metallica when warranted...ha.
Agreed, Wes. But, it's good to know Bernoccio has "tamed the bond vigilantes", whenever inflation *does* come. ;-)
I think we'll see 1082 come into play next few days, maybe even a shake or two lower, but ultimately we'll be back to test 1100 next week, before the big continuation move down.
I said it earlier off the cuff, but I'll reiterate it now- any "right shoulder" action at this time is capped at 1116. No 1126, no 1150... for now anyway. Tape is just too weak... too many longs want out, too many shorts want in.
If I have the energy after supper I'll throw a few charts up to illustrate.
Its all in how this next move sets up imo that is up in the air.
I'm pretty certain that the 920s will be tested in July. 960s at least.
Andy, you just seemed kinda pumped this pm...das good
wun- it's all about "me"...can you say social mood?
@Wes. Been waking up at 5AM the last few weeks for this "Boot Camp" exercise course. It's been tough, but the strength is coming back now. I'm tired as hell, but feeling better...if that makes any sense.
..AT- yes, it does...
DL & Nic
Thanks. I've spent the last hour or so reading articles on Ashraf Laidi's site. Good stuff. Probably will buy his book soon (bookmarked it at Amazon).
Pretty cool that comcast has all the world cup replays for free on demand...
Nic
Done and done :-)
This is an amazing comparison and why 10k is so important..
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-haunting-look-at-the-line-in-the-sand-in-1930-dow-jones/
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