AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


España


SPX
Doji day. Possible start of evening star. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is still waiting for retest. Closed above the 21 SMA and above the 233 SMA. Midpoint now above 10EMA. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1064.88). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.



DXY
Doji day. Possible start of morning star. Midpoint below 10EMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back above the 76.4% retrace (barely). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is now 88.40).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps (still holds true)." Still below the weekly 3LB mid and below 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bearish thrusting day. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1188.60).



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Possible bearish thrusting. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Back below the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (thanks GS). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes(reversal is 1.1924).



JNK
Bullish day. Didn't need to test the 23.6% retrace and now above the 233 SMA (barely). Midpoint above 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bullish short day. Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10EMA. Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).



WTI
Spinning top day. Trading above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Tested the weekly 3LB mid at 77.58 (failed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 74.61).



XHB
Doji day. Tested the 21 SMA and failed. I guess housing starts means "a time to rethink" for the homebuliders. Midpoint above 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.38).

62 comments:

Nic said...

Thanks Ra :)

BinT said...

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/06/16/ap/national/main6588014.shtml?tag=cbsnewsTwoColLowerPromoArea;morenews

Feds: Woman Flies Quarter-Ton of Pot to Ohio

Lisette Lee Arrested After 13 Suitcases Brought on Board Chartered Flight from California Drew Suspicion

...How many times do you have to tell a woman...13 is an unlucky number! Now if she'd just tried this with 8 suitcases...

Anonymous said...

alright- regarding the previous thread-

the 20 billion "set aside" is extortion- pure and simple-

doesn't stop BP from being sued by individuals, industries, states, etc-

so it's like- ok- here you go- 20 billion- will you STFU now?

BP should have told the Obama administration to pound sand- however they probably knew that their licenses to drill were probably at stake-

bullshit if you ask me- that's why there is a legal system- but no- we have Obama riding in on his white horse- to save his reputation- extorting money from a company and pissing off our closest ally-

what a stooge-

and the left wing of the democratic party very upset that Obama wasn't more demanding and harsh in his speech last night-

what fucking children- being mad that a company was putting up its own money and taking the risk to drill for something that they would gladly buy every second of their lives-

I said it the other night and I will say it again-

people want all that oil provides- as long as they are oblivious to its downsides-

result- drill anywhere but here in the good ol' USA

CV said...

@Ra

Espana...LOL

@wunsacon

You know, I think both of us "practice" (as individuals) as much as is humanly possible...
God knows I do...

Anybody around here should know that already (unless I'm just fabricating the whole thing and lying through my teeth)...

What bugs me are the loud mouthed liberals who are never short on "talking the talk" but rarely "walk the walk"...

I hardly have to walk out of my front door to see this play out in real life...

At my "Suburban" residence (not the farm)... Situated smack dab in the middle of wealthy BLUE'S... You should see... I practically don't even run water (collect rain off the roof - channel it into irrigation systems that I built by hand - all out of sight)... Hardly ever run lights or electricity (you should see my electric & H20 bills - nothing)... Don't run the air conditioner... Spend most of the time in a converted basement (which "climate controls" all by itself... and many other things...

Meanwhile... All my "Hope & Change" neighbors (ALL OF THEM)... Burn electricity & water like it's going out of style... Worse... They look at me "cross-eyed" like I'm some kind of freak... It's totally ironic...

This is real life my friend... I'm not making this stuff up... So excuse me if I feel at liberty to RANT about this "propaganda claptrap" that I hear all the time...

Until I see people actively putting money where there mouth is...

CV said...

"their" mouth...

Nic said...

Here is the thing, Halliburton built the well, to BP's specification, which was approved by the MMS, days prior. They are not allowed to drill without MMS approving the specs of the well.
They are not allowed to do anything without their approval. MMS could have required relief wells. MMS could have required different concrete/specs/whatever.
Yet no one from MMS even showed up at the congressional hearings ... scandalous. But then the Govt is partially liable and much easier to make BP pay.

CV said...

@Nic

Face it... The MMS part (which fully implicates the government as being equally negligent), will never be heard by the masses...

All we'll get is this "ranting and raving and posturing" by the Administration and various politicians...

... and what good will it do? How will it help mitigate the problem?

Don't answer, I already know...

Privately Employed said...

Actually, I kinda think were are getting more like Europe than we know. I have been mulling over the extreme costs of higher education a little today, and I wonder if we are to do as the English have done...to more or less permanently split the population into strata based on the educated and uneducated definers. I would hope not. It has always seemed to me that education was the great equalizer, and certainly it has been in spades in my life.

I guess we'll see.

CV said...

@PE

We should all get PHD's & MBA's, & law degrees...

God knows the "great wonders" in society that have been created by Central Bankers, Wall Streeters, & lawyers...

mcHAPPY said...

@Nic

Did you read the Denninger link re: BP?

He is pretty much saying the same. This is beyond ridiculous. Since Ben is away, I'll have to pick up on the social mood - negative. People, and therefore politicians, are not focused on looking for ways to fix/stop the leak, organizing/coordinating the cleanup, making/requiring improvements for the future within the industry, or working towards less oil dependency - rather people just want to point fingers and lay blame. Does this solve anything? Hell no. It only makes things worse because the root of the problems are not being fixed. What a ridiculous show and what a ridiculous president.

Real hope and change is coming one day - but it will not be by choice rather necessity. I just hope it is not in a hateful leader with global domination and/or eradicating a ethnic/religious group as a main agenda. If I recall, the last time that happened it did not end very well.

Anonymous said...

"Busted: BP CEO Caught Smiling After Leaving Meeting With Obama".

www.businessinsider.com/

And BP shares rise!

Anonymous said...

"getting more like Europe"

PE/Bruce-

dude- that appears to be the destination- if we had great espresso and baguettes at every train stop around our little country it would be awesome- unfortunately we are as big as all the European countries combined-

w/ a very non-homogeneous demographic-

no way on this planet they will "track' children for college/not college-

and besides- higher education is one of the few money making industries we have left

PE/BinT said...

oh,I agree, fellas. My point is not education as a snobbish idea. I was by far the poorest kid in my class. With my parents, my brother and I stood no chance unless we started our own business with nothing. I meant the tone of my thoughts to be more the Horatio Alger type of thing...that education, or guts, or fire in the belly or something saves some kids. I am thinking this massive increase in the cost of an education is a very bad thing....very very bad. I finished med school with no debt, (yeah, walked to school uphill both ways in the snow...I beat you to it)and wouldn't have tried it knowing I'd be 300k in the hole when I started....just would have done something else.

Anonymous said...

. . .and I have to say that it got a chuckle out of me that Karen based her whole buy/sell decision on AAPL on whether she could get an iPhone 4- now!!!

wow- that's loyalty(-:!!!!

mcHAPPY said...

There is quite a lack of chatter on the market. Hopefully bears are frustrated and bulls are greedy.

The end of today should not inspire confidence in any bull. However, the tape is also not giving anything for bears to be overly confident about either.

All people should be aware of is that all requirements are met to go down hard. The only question is does this turn in to a triple of some sort. Given the implications I have no doubt. Luckily if this transpires any bear who jumped the gun - like me - will have an opportunity to get out even, maybe with a little profit.

Looking for a quick trip to the 1070's at some point soon followed by a just as quick trip back to the 1100's. It will either be a B or an X or a ii.

If you are looking for definitive answers, CV had best pull out the magic 8 ball again.

CV said...

@BinT

Want education? Reduce dependency on oil? Lower carbon emissions? Eat healthier? Reduce waste? Be more eco-friendly?

Simple... teach everyone how to construct an "aquaponic system" in their own living space...

Hell - Even LB could fit one in the space of a mid-town Manhattan apartment to feed himself AND the twins...

- You EAT... So you don't have to drive around looking for food (which, in of itself, has to be "shipped" to market)
- Work? Work out of your home...
- Energy? Turn off a few lights

What else am I missing?

Will Americans do this? HELL NO...

So...

STFU - (and "annihilate" your species in the long run)...

Have a good day! :-)

Enjoy your World Cup (on the BIG SCREEN), your Domino's pizza, your "horsepower", and your fat ass...

Anonymous said...

Enjoy your World Cup (on the BIG SCREEN), your Domino's pizza, your "horsepower", and your fat ass...

CV-

regarding "fat ass" I prefer to think of it as "Baby Got Back"

unless it's a dude of course(-:!!!

CV said...

@ahab

"Oh MY GOD, Becky... Look at her butt!" - LOL

I-Man said...

I like big butts and I cannot lie...

AmenRa said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-top-kill-and-every-other-top-down-leak-operation-will-fail-2010-6
Here's Why Top Kill And Every Other "Top-Down" Leak Operation Will Fail

...
So you have to ask WHY? Why make it worse?...there really can only be one answer and that answer does not bode well for all of us. It's really an inescapable conclusion at this point, unless you want to believe that every Oil and Gas professional involved suddenly just forgot everything they know or woke up one morning and drank a few big cups of stupid and got assigned to directing the response to this catastrophe. Nothing makes sense unless you take this into account, but after you do...you will see the "sense" behind what has happened and what is happening. That conclusion is this:

The well bore structure is compromised "Down hole".

That is something which is a "Worst nightmare" conclusion to reach. While many have been saying this for some time as with any complex disaster of this proportion many have "said" a lot of things with no real sound reasons or evidence for jumping to such conclusions, well this time it appears that they may have jumped into the right place...

...
A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons.
There will be erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the "system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil "Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long that race will be?...no one really knows....However now?...there are other problems that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad situation.

This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

Anonymous said...

Ra-

dude- why was BP allowed to drill out in deep water?

answer- it's far away from shore and doesn't block the scenery-

so- you see- we want all the conveniences of oil- the cheap fuel- the luxuries of heat and air conditioning- the plastic sippy cups- but none of the realities-

as Al Gore would say- that's an inconvenient truth

AmenRa said...

ahab

I'm waiting for the satellite picture of the Gulf when it's filled with oil.

Wes said...

...Ra/ahab -

yes, that is what is going on...the relief well and the ability to "kill" the original well is, unfortunately, not a slam dunk - highly uncertain still...

why are we drilling in these conditions? 5,000 ft water depth and 18,000 ft total measure depth...i guess the easy stuff is running out...peak oil is real...

...but, this is nothing compared to what folks are looking at - 8-10,000 ft wd and 30,000 ft wells...are in the plan...i am working on it, sorry....

CV said...

@Amen (9:19)

"I'm waiting for the satellite picture of the Gulf when it's filled with oil..."

As Colbert put it...

Robert Gibbs says... "We'll just re-name it the BLACK SEA"...

Get those SPIN gears cranked up... Within a year, they'll be turning it into a "SLIP & SLIDE FUN PARK"...

CV said...

@Wes

Well there WAS, supposedly, fairly easy to get to stuff in Alaska...

But some kind (or type) of activists (with a certain political lean), put a stop to that...

Bravo!

CV said...

After all...

What a nuisance!

Why cover seals in oil when you can cover penguins, shrimp, oysters, fishermen, & beachfront property in oil?

Makes no sense!

Anonymous said...

and a follow up to my last post-

I want to make it clear- that my point is- if we want the "luxury" of oil- then we have to except the tragedy of oil-

oil pumps off the coast and oil being pumped in "off limit" areas-

otherwise- we can't complain if we are sending massive amounts of wealth to other countries-

that are polluting their own countries to provide us with oil-

but- I guess- if the gasoline magically appears in our gas pumps-

then who gives a shit- let's continue on with our dreams of perfect shores and sunsets

I-Man said...

Just have to share that I-Man is now the proud owner of a new HP Pavillion Elite HPE-209f desktop pc (AMD Phenom II x4 925 processor, 8GB ram, 1 TB hard drive) paired with dual LG 21.5" lcd 1920x1080 resolution monitors... and a new HP color laserjet to print I and I price charts on.

Feeling happier than a pig in shit about this setup.

Never had a monitor bigger than 17" let alone two of them... pretty damn sick.

The whole setup was quite reasonable, and under budget by a wide margin, allowing me to go with the 21.5" monitors instead of 20".

Funny thing is, put more thought into this purchase than I did the car!

BTW- Anyone want to buy a fully loaded 2003 VR6 Jetta (Tiptronic 5 speed) with 40k miles on it?

I-Man is getting a bike.

:)



Didnt check the market today, so thanks for the wrap, Ra!

Andy T said...

Anyone else catch the Spain/Switzerland game live? It was fantastic....

We were going crazy in our office with the Swiss scored that goal.

It was a great game....was very wide open...some of the boys in the office became 'fans' of the soccer after watching that one....

Wes said...

I...awesome...all the best on your new venture...very sweet...i can talk to you about bikes and biking, if you like...

Nic said...

I-Man ... wow enjoy your new setup!

CV said...

Al Gore says...

"An amazing type of jet fuel magically appears in the jets that fly me around the world to talk about global warming and pick up my Nobel prizes & Oscars"...

"Also, my 10,000 sq. ft. home is magically heated and air conditioned by my Jesus like, internet inventing aura cloud"...

"To power my caravan of SUV's (on the way back & forth from the airport)... My fleet runs on turbo exhaust recapturing manifolds from tubes rammed deep into my fat ass"...

Wes said...

ahab@9:44 - such passion, my man..and, so true...could not agree more

CV said...

@I-Man

Sweet!

Now... TRADE YOU F***ER! :-)

Nic said...

I agree with you Bruce about education.
Is there any chance that credit in the student loan system dries up? What happens then? Prices come down or less get college educations?

Nic said...

Ahab, very true.
No one wants to know what happens in abbatoirs, no one wants to know what happens in wars ...

CV said...

Nobody wants to see sausage getting made

AmenRa said...

I can't take it anymore!!! If I see that "shake weight" commercial one more time...

karen said...

¡España! Qué listo..

I-Man, I missed you so today! Hardly posted at all.

Ahab, you know I am not buying aapl : P

karen said...

AR, if you were as I am.. tv-less, clueless, you wouldn't even know what "shake weight" was. I feel better now.

karen said...

Oh, Nic, I am very impressed! I thot only LB could teach me new words, abbatoirs; thank you very much.

Anonymous said...

alright-

out for the night-

all have a great evening!!!

Karen- now that you know you can get an iPhone 4- you're all in- don't lie(-:!!!!

Wes said...

@karen...

i was the last commenter a week ago Sat...wah, wah, wah, i guess someone has to be...

..funny, that was also my 29th wedding anniversary...and my youngest son's high school graduation day

...here it is...


Wes said...

@Karen -

Awesome, I thought you were further north...

i've surfed Cotton's and Trestles, but, that was many, many moons ago.

I was recalling that Cotton's was a left break near the old Nixon complex...just a stroll south from San Clemente...

There were no houses between the SD freeway and the beach at Trestles way back when, I think we had to trespass Camp Pendelton to get there...

I guess it has changed - very cool beach at Trestles, dunes, and a great walk to the beach, lower, in particular...and it was a right break...

i ride goofy foot...so, i really liked Cotton's point, but the swell had to be pretty good size for it to come into it's own...sweet

June 6, 2010 11:05 PM

Nic said...

I am so disappointed in Obama.
I keep reading what a great job he did wresting fund money out of BP but what about all those promises he made to get elected?
What about closing Guantanamo / ending rendition / habeas corpus / Bagram prisoners / ending warrantless wiretaps / whistleblower protection etc.
He is worse than Bush, at least you knew what you were getting with the smirking chimp.

karen said...

Wes.. there is a left and a right at cotton's! sometimes the left at cotton's reminds me of windansea if you ever surfed there.. truth be told, i'm still in bathing suit with salty hair.. i hope you saw the surfline.com links i posted. i'll have to find the morey boogie ad i was in at windansea and post is as my new avatar.. (which reminds me, i've yet to see Nic's wing walking avatar!!)

well, congrats on your anniversary and son's graduation.. i'm a year behind you on the wedding anniversary and a year ahead of you on my youngest son's HS graduation.

karen said...

Nic, i voted for him! i am more disappointed than you! the HOPE dissipated immediately.

I-Man said...

Ditto.

I-Man said...

CV @ 10:15

Working on it brah...
They have to observe the I first, before he gets the keys to the castle, so to speak.

I-Man said...

Nice doji today...

I like dojis and think they say alot about the tape.

CV said...

@I-Man

I'm happy you're chasing your passion brah... & puttin' it on the line...

That says a lot about character right there...

I-Man said...

Big decision.

I-Man said...

Copper and AUD/JPY compared to the SPX tell an interesting story in the 60min timeframe.

Somethings gotta give...

AmenRa said...

I-Man

re: SPX
Since the body of the doji was inside the previous days body we have a bearish harami. Rooting for a lower close tomorrow :-)

I-Man said...

This is one nice looking chart:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=h1

Nic said...

See that suggests yen breaks down and weaker yen usually means stronger equities. Which is odd because everything else is telling me weaker equities tomorrow ...
Hmmm I am seeing an up then down day tomorrow.

I-Man said...

I think that looks yen bullish...

You dont think that looks like its going to break out?

I-Man said...

Ahh... thats supposed to be the 60min chart, not the daily.

Gotcha. My bad.

I-Man said...

But the daily dont look too shabby either...

:)

wunsacon said...

CV,

Thanks for explaining.

Certainly, you do more as an individual than 99% -- including me. (As an apartment renter, there's not much I can "invest" in on my patio...and I'm still priced out of the local RE market by 20%+. Also, my comment about the V6 notwithstanding, I hope to buy a Nissan Leaf when it comes out...maybe drag race against BinT in his Prius...) To be sure, I remember enough of what you wrote on TBP to respect (and be envious of) your work for and progress towards self-sufficiency.

wunsacon said...

Massive *firings* at the MMS (resulting in loss of pension as well) would not only be "just" but instill the requisite fear into other agencies that they should do their f'n jobs.

But, when Oh-bama doesn't even replace his Treasury nominee for faulty tax filings, what should we expect?

wunsacon said...

Folks, by the way, sorry if I've been rambling or chiming in "too much" lately on politics. I realize it's slightly OT or at least that the length/depth can be "inappropo"...

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.