Morning Audibles 6.09.10 Now I've Heard Everything

Headline on BLOOMBERG NEWS...


"Waste on Freight Cars Gains in Confirmation of Rebound"


I'm telling you people, you can't make this stuff up... Hear that people? Go back to buying stocks because Choo Choo Charlie is hauling more and more of the useless crap you've bought from the Chinese to the landfills...




Excerpt(s):

"Shipments of waste and scrap have a higher correlation with economic growth than coal or copper, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. (To see an Interactive Insight version of the story, click here.)


“It’s sort of like measuring horsepower by looking at the smoke coming out of the tail pipe,” Carl Riccadonna, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, said in a telephone interview. “It’s consistent with our broader view that economic growth is accelerating.”

I don't want to list ALL the problems I have with this kind of analysis (or else I risk getting more confusing than the extrapolation of the story itself)...

My only "kinship" with this kind of article would be to say that, as a journalist, on a slow news day (such as perhaps, TODAY - [thanks to more "miracle kicksaves" in equities by an entity with a printing press]), one has to dig far into the nether regions to pull out a story, and slop it onto your plate like a prison chowline.




"It's sort of like measuring horsepower by looking at the smoke coming out of the tail pipe"... Can somebody please explain to CV how THAT is done, exactly?... If I'm out of my league with these new HIGH TECH forms of analysis, please somebody set me straight in the process...

And what's the data sample?

I mean, is there a new CZAR, or some position like that on the government payroll that you're paying to produce these helpful data bits? Does Bernanke get a 10,000 page report plunked on his desk to peruse while sipping on his morning kool-aid coffee?





CV has some possible explanations, ranging from the obvious:

- "Gee, I'm thinking that when people get booted out of their houses, office spaces are abandoned, and strip malls become ghost towns, there's potentially a lot of mess to clean up"
OR
- "Gee with a mobilized force dispatched to the Gulf area to clean up tar balls, there's gotta be a lot of waste to clean up in the process"

Or, I'm happy with the "outlandish" as well...

"Maybe those "shovel ready" jobs are just people on opposite sides of the CSX train tracks loading crap to be transported back and forth"

I know that there are some blogs who relish this type of data as TYPICAL... But please BLOOMBERG... Please!... Don't tell me that we're all "pinning our hopes for a recovery" on trash!









272 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 272 of 272   Newer›   Newest»
karen said...

I found Onlooker at KidDynamite's !!!

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=14963913&postID=5237091794098608203

McFearless said...

Nice find karen, hope he's good.

karen said...

where is DL, now? should I stay or should I go with my faz and drv today.. might just bank it..

mcHAPPY said...

We are coming dangerously close to the flash crash lows on the S&P and the DOW is just below 10K..... What does all this mean? Sweet F*CK all.

McFearless said...

the bulls couldn't even get this up to 1080 today.....

you can def. see five up off the lows yesterday to today's high, but the short term squiggles are hard to count still.

CV said...

@mcHappy

Yeah... Those "FAT FINGERED" flash crash lows seem to get trampled on as often as 10K does...

What's that? 11 years now?

CV said...

Note to FRBOY (otherwise known as 33 Liberty)...

Thanks for "scaring away" all the shorts yesterday...

Now there is effectively NO BID under this market...

mcHAPPY said...

I'm still watching 1057.80.

karen said...

Pimco Buying Treasurys, says economy to slow

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704575304575296504254560156.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business

Trader Mark sold this morning's long index position

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/06/bookkeeping-sold-this-mornings-index.html?

karen said...

Just pulled up the p&f of aapl as I was curious what could get down to 230.. and 230 was the Met Bullish PO..

CV said...

Interesting chart here...

http://pragcap.com/an-inverted-death-cross-in-investment-grade-credit

karen said...

great find, CV! also, two black candles for jnk now..

karen said...

Also on that site, nly's monthly letter:

http://pragcap.com/annaly-capitals-monthly-commentary

"We begin this month’s commentary with the same sentence we used to close our last one: In case anyone needed a reminder, the financial crisis is not over."

I-Man said...

Get short.

McFearless said...

smackdown.....

karen said...

US House Blocks Effort To End Fannie, Freddie Taxpayer SupportFont size: A | A | A
3:07 PM ET 6/9/10 | By Jessica Holzer

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday blocked an effort by Republicans to end the taxpayer support of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R., Texas) tried to force a vote on a measure that closely mirrored an amendment sponsored by Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.) that was defeated in the Senate last month during the debate on financial regulatory overhauls.

Under the House measure, the government would end the conservatorships of Fannie and Freddie in two years and either wind them down or spin them out as entirely private companies.

House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.) argued the bill wouldn't save taxpayers a penny because the companies aren't taking losses on the new business they have conducted since they were seized by the government in September 2008.

"Passing that bill tomorrow wouldn't save anything because their current operations aren't losing money," Frank said.

karen said...

anything under 1065 means bulls should just give up.

AmenRa said...

Market update:

$Trin
SPX 1.74
NYSE 1.25
NASDAQ 1.74

NYSE TRIN 1.26

CV said...

Paging Kateherine

AmenRa said...

Clearing throat: "K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!! K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!!"

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/has-bp-sprung-counterparty-risk-leak

AmenRa said...

ARMS reversal signal...debunked

McFearless said...

Ra,

I wrote the EWI message board about that yesterday, re ARMS. They haven't responded to me yet.

AmenRa said...

Ben

Did Richard send out another note to his subscribers telling them to ignore the previous message?

Mannwich said...

Looks like that little rally short lived.

spoonman said...

bounce into the close still possible, I feel. Short but nervous...

karen said...

i'm short and nervous, too! trend is down but market is a cr*p shoot, no doubt about that..

Mannwich said...

Cramer likes C. Anyone else here?

Mannwich said...

@karen & spoonie: Which is why I'm mostly watching these days. Not an active participant for the most part, unless you count sitting in my TLT.

CV said...

@karen

If you liked the other charts, you might like the latest expanded one up now in the thread...

NEWER CHART in THREAD Expanded

mcHAPPY said...

Any bounce in to the close would be for serious shorting consideration - even more.

'Something' ended at 1077.74 - an A or a ii.

If A ended and we just finished B, A=C would come out to be 1090-ish.

wunsacon said...

>> CV, your comment finally posted at TBP.. directly above mine which has been there all day..

Karen, CV, if I might infer from Karen's comment, you might wonder whether BR has any of you/us on a gray list. I don't think so.

Why not? Because that "posting delay" happens to my posts as well. Sometimes. And, if you haven't noticed, I agree with BR on almost everything. (A little less so on some of his current comments about the recovery, which perhaps are too nuanced for me to really understand.) So, don't sweat it. I doubt any of us are on any kind of "tape delay". It's probably some unintentional filtering issue.

CV said...

Sure, there's a little risk of a bounce going into the close...

But TIME is compressing for bulls... This reversal has to be very discouraging...

CV said...

@wunsacon

Usually if I attack BR directly, he's man enough to give me a direct reply...

I'll give him credit for that...

Basically... I'm AGREEING with what you're saying... I don't think those "moderating" things are all that sinister...

mcHAPPY said...

Gap on the Nasdaq filled from the open but the RUT is not.

AmenRa said...

I feel a push below 1050 is in the works before the close.

karen said...

wunsacon.. i agree, i think it was a filtering issue.. that's why i wanted to try hyperlinking or whatever it's called that i did.

cv, i do get that new chart, but also see weakness here and agree with your 3:30 comments.. thanks for the chart! i'll probably hold for tomorrows orwellian data unless there is a cliff dive into the close.

spoonman said...

OTOH, Karen, we could tank into the close also...

CV said...

@mcHappy

I'd frankly see 1068 as tough resistance before that...

mcHAPPY said...

Gotta love freestockcharts.... scratch that... the RUT has been filled.

karen said...

below 1050 would be particularly dire for the bulls, AR..

mcHAPPY said...

CV,

I would concur if 1077.74 was the end of a ii.

I-Man said...

Weekly close at 1030...

mcHAPPY said...

If we could just break 1040.78 I would sleep so sound this evening. Asking too much?

CV said...

If we hang down near the lows into the close today...

Watch for some EXPLOSIVE news from Europe overnight... (Like some fund blowing up over BP)...

We're close enough that we could get a GAP DOWN below 1040, followed by a quick whoosh and a hammer recovery (tomorrow)...

I wouldn't be surprised to see an 80 point swing move (40 points down & 40 back up in SPX tomorrow)...

CV said...

@karen (3:35)

x2

CV said...

@Manny

Hell... If they'd quit trying to defend 1040 and let the market find a new lower level...

I might look at the landscape and jump on board with Cramer on "C" (if only to hold through earnings season reporting in July)...

McFearless said...

"Did Richard send out another note to his subscribers telling them to ignore the previous message?"

Ra, Russell's dow theory letters are getting more bearish by the day, I have seen nothing at all to indicate he's going to flip bullish, every day we go up, like yesterday, he remarks that the bear is playing with us.....

CV said...

People... It's a done deal...

EUR-USD is going to get hacked overnight...

McFearless said...

did you all see this!?!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charting-treasurys-delusions-tim-geithners-latest-projections-us-public-debt

CV said...

Plus - I was reading on some other blog someone making a case for "backing up the truck" on RIG...

Looks like it's a "core holding" now for that portfolio...

McFearless said...

I've counted at least 12 headlines on google today giving Bernanke credit for moving markets, gold, s&P, bonds.

what

a

joke

McFearless said...

C,

As we have been saying for a long time, people will buy the dips all the way down in P3. I think the talk about RIG, BP, etc. proves as much thus far.

Privately Employed said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aOIXWet891dQ

June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Overnight deposits with the European Central Bank rose to a record as the sovereign debt crisis made banks wary of lending to each other.

Banks lodged 364.6 billion euros ($436 billion) in the ECB’s overnight deposit facility at 0.25 percent, up from 362 billion euros yesterday, the Frankfurt-based central bank said in a market notice today. That’s the most since the start of the euro currency in 1999. Deposits have been close to or above 300 billion euros for the past nine sessions.

Banks are parking cash with the ECB instead of lending it on amid concern that counterparties own too many bonds from Europe’s most indebted nations. While deposits exceed those during the post-Lehman Brothers crisis, the overall amount of money in circulation has also increased as the ECB has flooded money markets with cash since 2008.

CV said...

@McF (3:48)

Ask yourself what happens if the USG has to "fund" that debt at NORMAL interest rates?

Anonymous said...

CV, did you place "ultrashorts" today @1065 spx? I did in the morning. i am loving it. thanks again.... you are on a roll...
DP

CV said...

@McF

I remembered that article by that guy (on RIG), because the idea "sounded good" in theory...

Then I looked at the chart and said to myself... NOPE... After another 70% haircut, you might interest me in that trade... lol

AmenRa said...

Ben

Sorry about that. I meant Dick Arms. I was reading something else when I typed that.

wunsacon said...

Might call me crazy. But, I bought some NE.

Even if we don't drill here, I think (er, hope??) a foreign company would like to lease NE's drill ships. Heck, if I were Singapore's Temasek or another sovereign wealth fund, I would consider buying the company.

Talking my book...

CV said...

@Anon

Actually, I didn't add any positions there... (or 1071)...

The chart, to me, at the time, looked like at best it was going to go sideways for awhile...

I'm fine tho with what I still have...

Basically, I'm short ENOUGH... (and todays move is taking some of the "cold steel" feel away)... :-)

karen said...

Nothing like full disclosure:

une 9 (Bloomberg) -- Distressed debt investors won’t have to disclose key details of their investments when they participate in bankruptcy cases under new recommendations from the U.S. judiciary.

Hedge funds and other investors that team up during bankruptcies as creditors wouldn’t have to reveal the prices paid for a company’s debt or the date of purchase, according to a proposed change by the Judiciary’s Advisory Committee on Bankruptcy Rules.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ar66udDX4GPM&pos=6

CV said...

@Anon

I'm telling you... If we can just get a FLASH MOVE down tomorrow morning (anything below 1116 would be fine with me - but I'd be hoping for 1000)...

I'd switch right around and go long...

wunsacon said...

Hey, anyone have any idea who's on the other end of an index put? If -- just "hypothetically speaking" -- some s***bag financial institution stops marking-to-myth and admits its insolvency, my puts could turn to dust. Right??

I might start worrying about that (again) if or when we drop another 50% from here...

wunsacon said...

>> Distressed debt investors won’t have to disclose key details of their investments when they participate in bankruptcy cases under new recommendations from the U.S. judiciary.

Holy cr@p!! They're telling even the COURTS to ignore facts and to lie!

Ya know, I'm not sure that courts have to actually abide by that in all cases. This could get interesting, legally speaking. (As our "interesting times" aren't already "interesting" enough...)

CV said...

@wunsacon

If/when we drop another 50% from here...

$10-$15 trillion of QE will come rolling in...

So you'd probably be paid for those... The next ones after?????

wunsacon said...

>> The next ones after?????

I'll accept payment in quatloos.

"I wager 10,000 quatloos that QE will fail and the USD fiat will have to be destroyed!"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gamesters_of_Triskelion

CV said...

@wunsacon

If Bernanke would just send the $15 trillion to CV, I would see that it gets dispersed in a fair and equitable fashion...

- one for you, one for me
- one for you, two for me
- one for you, three for me
- one for you, five for me

I abide by the FIBO-NOMIC principle of distribution...

karen said...

CV, normally you leave early on Wednesdays.. ??

wunsacon said...

But, what will you *do* with all that money?? Hmmm....

Treasure bath!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTH8_elwCpA

CV said...

OK all... CV is heading to the gym...

I'll see you all later in AMENS CORNER (hey Amen... US OPEN is NEXT week... We'll have to go with this for AmenRa's Corner)...

http://www.golfcourseartwork.com/pebble%20beach%207%20117.JPG

CV said...

@karen

Nornally yes... Because I have have "back to back" classes...

But the 4:30 is off the schedule for the summer (because everyone is at the pool)...

So just a 5:45...

C ya! :-)

karen said...

is 1083 the 38.2?

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