A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Another rogue wave. Even the eye isn't safe.
SPXBullish long day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) was the new kryptonite (not anymore). Midpoint still below 10EMA. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (BS). Daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1050.47. Still confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish long day (finally decided direction). Midpoint barely above 10EMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back below the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXSpinning top (failed to confirm hammer). Midpoint below 10EMA. Fear is waking up and realizing WTH was that today?. Failed the 23.6% retrace but still above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Still confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBearish long day. Profit taking? JPM? Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1188.60).
EURUSDBullish long day. GS must be short. Midpoint below the 10EMA. Tested the fibo .2058 at 1.2028 (passed). Still coming soon is the test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2201).
JNKBullish long day. Finally confirmed inverted hammer so risk is back on (suckers). Tested the 14.6% retrace (passed) but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish long day. Asked the market "What about me?". Well below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10EMA. No test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. Daily 3LB reversal (down) with reversal now 144.95.
BPSpinning top day. Possible bullish harami star (ok stop laughing). Closed way below the 0.0% retrace. Way below the 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.86).
WTIBullish long day. Trading above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Tested the 50.0% retrace at 75.69 (passed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 69.41).
54 comments:
Thanks Ra
Business Insider say Prechter bullish on the Euro
Nic,
from bottom thread re: Najarian...those stats make me think a big rally is coming, so it reinforces what I said this morning, we are likely looking at wave five down not three and a pretty big retrace rally is coming soon...
Nic
Until the euro breaks the weekly 3LB mid I won't be convinced. He may be right though especially if they let the European banks lie about their balance sheets like ours do.
Two views, both bearish:
My preferred, we go higher. That A-B-C is looking real good on the hourly chart off 1040.78. A solid 3-3-5. A is a clear three waves up. We have an extended flat going where the second wave in B (1105.67) extended beyond A (1103.52) and then C blew past A end (1069) to finish at 1042.17. C started here and is not showing 5 waves up. Get ready then for three waves down (might be a good chance to unload some shorts) then a final five waves up.
Because in the larger picture this is a flat correction, C should extend just beyond the start of A (again, 1103.52).
The alternate view is:
we finish a 4th of minor three. Invalidation point is quite clear: 1091.81. On the way down a break of 1052.25. This view lacks the additional cold steel, but also potential profits as well. We'd be looking around 1020 if 5 equals 1.
One thing is for certain after today...there is no "third of third" developing down. We may still be in some kind of larger degree wave-4 (beginning on 5/25) that leads to a fifth extension off the highs. But, at this point, those EWers with "third of third" setups are definitely incorrect.
I still like my abc-x-abc count down from the highs. I'm praying that we be a b-wave instead of the x-wave so that we get a better level to sell. It would feel orgasmic to be able to sell 1150s again.
McHappy,
maybe it's what you meant but if you are counting an expanded flat then the C wave should end more substantially beyond the ending level of Wave A rather than "just beyond" so on your count 1120's to 1150 would seem more likely for Wave C.
There is a wave 4 triangle potentially at work, or other variations of double ZZ.....in any event, I feel good that bulls have only one count right now and bears have several.
McFearless I agree about the rally and will be bigger than people expect. Remember how bearish we all felt in Jan and look what happened. I just hope this summer is better than last or I handle it better than the last one :)
AT,
I agree, the three of three of three isn't logical anymore, doesn't fit.....I also doubt we get up to 1150 but you are right if we do,....man is that a huge short.
I like your large corrective count, it provides a little more flexibility and is still bearish.
I got my ass handed to me today on the gap up, and then I compounded it with some boneheaded decisions. That did not feel good. I'm still up on the year, but I need to just relax for a bit.
@McF or Andy
I'm looking back at some of the models...
and I can't find the abc-x-abc slide...
Do you know which day that was posted?
Thanks...
CV,
It's on the June 6 update on slide 5, notice on bottom left AT mentions the 4th wave option as an alternate to the count he presents, which is a count I was looking at all day today...
CV, Andy
In that count if you visualize it as a 1-2-3 and we are in 4 now...then wave 1 and wave 3 are equal basically so I'd be interested in hearing AT's thoughts on the probable sizes of wave 5....I have some ideas but would like to hear AT's if he's around.
@McF
Thanks
OT, how about this!:
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/ncf/news/story?id=5267933
A fifth wave extension in that case would be quite powerful--it would look like a crash.
It should be at least 161.8% larger that the next largest wave--so, 875 ish depending on where the fourth wave concludes. It would happen quite quickly.
Again, that's not my primary count, but it's something that is in the back of my mind.
AT,
I was using a general idea of dow 8,500 with that count....it would actually make the flash crash somewhat "tame" by comparison. That's the exact personality of a Primary Wave 3 at this degree.
We'll see, I'm not so sure. I think either way in terms of a trading strategy it's not the time to be all in short but you should leave something on if you can handle the risk, if the move happens, even a smaller position will provide a very good gain.
@Andy
We may still be in some kind of larger degree wave-4 (beginning on 5/25)
If that is true, it would seem logical that the 200SMA might be a target...
After all, last July when that line was backtested, we finally had a big breakout on 7/13... Shot straight up for almost a month... Something like 15 green candles and only 5 red...
The market never even "looked" at the 200SMA until the flash crash pierced it, and then we closed UNDER it on 5/20...
We may just be going up to have a peek...
It's also very close to that chart gap (and kind of lines up nice with an ascending wedge for the "4" you're describing)...
Hmmm (since closing below 1110):
RGRGRG
RRGGRR
GRG---
Tomorrow will be down, then we'll have Momo Mondays followed by Turnaround Tuesdays.
@Ben 5:40
I could very well be incorrect but the way I was viewing the ABC was a abc wave for A up to 1103.52. The B wave was an extended flat with a going to 1069, b to 1105.67 and c to 1042.17. The current C would have started from 1042.17. Again, could very well be wrong. Any flaws in my counting would be appreciated. My EWP book is barely a month old but it is showing signs of wear!
Monday is the 13th day off the May 25 low which was 21 days down (april 26-may25). Thursday would be the 16th day.
@Andy 5:30
How could we be in a larger degree 4th wave? Wouldn't the 1065 'flash crash' and 1094 the following day make that a major no-no for EW rules? Or are you speaking of a 4th off the 1173?
mcHappy. On slide 11 from a weeks ago, you'll see the wave-4 possibility.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/32277623/SP500-Update-31-May-10
@Andy
At what point would that "4" hypothesis be negated?
All the way past 1150? or before?
mcHAPPY
Fibonacci time zones. Does your charting software offer that as an indicator?
@ben: You don't think Pete Carroll knew that was coming, do you? Just a coincidence that he fled for the NFL? I think not.
No coincidence...
He claims he's "shocked", "SHOCKED" by the ruling though.
hmmmm . . . .
interesting- big rally-
based on China's export numbers supposedly-
pretty sad the whole world is pinning their hopes on China-
not that I don't appreciate communist one party absolutism-
i guess it has its pluses- like cheap labor I guess-
so much for spreading democracy
spreading "kleptocracy"
That wave-4 theory should get negated on action above 1093 (the low of the wave-1), but it would actually take a settle above 1110 to absolutely kill it. I know that doesn't help too much ...
not looking at any charts- and taking BR's word that volume was woeful-
does it appear to anyone else that low volume = up- high volume = down-
just wondering
spreading "kleptocracy"
of course- what the hell am i thinking
@Andy
Bottom line is... Notwithstanding today...
BULLS still have a HELL OF A LOT OF WORK TO DO...
McHap,
so I'm not confusing what you are saying, do you mean to say expanded flat, rather than extended?
How about "EXPENDED"? :-)
Gene Krantz (Apollo 13) says...
"OK... Let's look at this from a MISSION standpoint... What do we have on the ship that actually works?"
well . . .John Borchers has turned bullish-
I suggest you all start setting up for the inevitable rally
. . .and this is for BinT-
Stasi-Style Doctors On The Way
what do you think dude?
. . .and for those wondering- John Borchers was a poster from way back when on TBP-
he was buying the banks all the way down-
now stating on BR's blog that he is turning bullish- from bearish I guess- for how long is anyone's guess
@ahab
I wasn't around in the John Borchers days...
CV-
you just missed him then- I started posting in late fall 2008-
I am pretty sure you started posting in the Spring 2009-
didn't miss much-
banks tanked of course- but we had those stress tests and some accounting changes-
and now the banks are solid(-:!!!
CV, you have company. Soros.
"George Soros see fall of financial system as we know it". www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-stories/
From Marketwatch.com - ECB is buying euro zone govt. bonds(QE). How is that good for the Euro?
It's all a race to zero...
@Anon
The interests behind the central banking systems of the world got what they wanted in 2008...
They got a prize "flunkie" (who still doesn't understand that he's playing the role of a flunkie)...
Flunkie says...
"I'm not a President... I just play one on TV"...
What you all need is a little Cage the Elephant....you got my back against the Wall.
Cage The Elephant
The video is bizarre but the song is great.
@Andy
You'll see in tomorrows thread that I'm stone cold sober...
I'm even using a HOUSTON theme...
Wow, an epic fourth quarter by a bench in the NBA Finals! Doc showed some brass balls going with those guys for so long.
Who was it that said the bench would be the key for the Celts before the series? ;-)
Anyone? Anyone?
I'm not sure what to make of this, but shipping rates have surged lately back to late 2008 levels, after grinding along the bottom for all of 2009. Harper Peterson & Co. maintains an index of shipping rates called the HARPEX and it's been on a moon shot lately. It's kind of surprising that the touts haven't latched on to this story; maybe it's too obscure a data point for the likes of Cramer.
To put it in perspective, though, HARPEX is only just back over the lowest level reached during the 2002 recession.
@Ben,
Yes, extended meant expanded. SOrry for the confusion. I was lookinsg a lot at extensions this week.
Ra,
Anything you get from me is done with pen and paper and a caluclator. Nothing exotic here.
Thanks, Andy. I should be doing a better job of checking back to your slides. Finding it difficult lately to juggle everything and my new found interest in EW.
I'm still confused though how the 4th could extend in to wave 1 territory.
What's important is where the fourth wave concludes relative to where the first wave concluded. Also, in the beginning stages of a wave development, the market can be "turbulent," so some minor overlaps are probably forgiveable.
If you plotted the market on "line on close" basis I think it should be clearer.
Actually, not just "thanks" but thank you a lot. That really adds some clarity and fixes soem of the assumptions I had. I had been extremely rigid in following the three main rules.
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