A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Was that a rogue wave?
SPXBearish short day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is the new kryptonite. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Back below the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (wuss). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1071.59). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day (again). Midpoint above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes. Acting like a cat ready to pounce.
VIXHammer day (uh oh bulls). Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing Wednesdays did go down. Held the 23.6% retrace and still above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Still confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDSpinning top day (again). It's still confirming bullish piercing and is above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1188.60).
EURUSDSpinning top day (again). Looks similar to a four day continuation pattern (mat hold?). Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Tested the fibo .2058 at 1.2028 (failed). Coming soon is the test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2201).
GSBearish long day. Getting weaker. Still diving below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. No test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).
BPBearish short day (not an inverted hammer because the upper shadow is too short). Closed way below the 14.6% retrace. Still below the 10 SMA. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 43.86.
HYG/LQDSpinning top day (again). Tested the 38.2% retrace (passed). Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.806).
---STRASBURG---
Takes the Field
The Warm-Up
First Major League Pitch
First Big League Cuts
Handwritten Scorecard - Insane
Strikes out the last 7 batters in a row... The plan was to take him out after 90 pitches NO MATTER WHAT... They could have let him continue in the game and he might have reached 20 strikeouts!
Insane!
More INSANE that I have him on my FANTASY BASEBALL SQUAD :-)
82 comments:
I like that the 23.6 is still holding on VXX, bullish.
re the discussion about Palin today, I would just note that women seem to be winning some key political victories of late and as we have discussed in the past, waves of social mood have revealed that women gain power and authority in negative social mood/bear markets. So, Palin 2012? Perhaps, I'm skeptical, but I wouldn't rule it out, perhaps Hillary Clinton sounds more interesting though....
Last...
Strasberg anyone?
how un crude of you, AR.. heading down to the beach in hope of a rogue myself! thx for the wrap ! (you can add crude for me if you want : )
ben, ben, ben, pls don't frighten me with palin.. i promise i would leave the country..
The recovery is Finnished...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10272574.stm
I'd be right behind you, karen.
...and me, one step behind you manny
I wouldn't even wait for the inauguration.
I'd move to Alaska or Hawaii (hoping they'd be sold to The Australians)...
@McF
Strasburg? :-)
See above (tail end of Amen Ra's thread)... I added some photos my friend sent from his camera phone (he was at the game)...
you are all lying-
no way- no matter who wins in 2012- you would leave the country-
I would leave the country for many reasons- but that would be the last reason-
and my SDS that I bought last night ended up in the green- as I had hoped-
couldn't happen to a nicer guy
and CV- you're core BP position- that's some funny shit there-
although I called BR out on BP today- but after re-reading the "buy what you hate redux"- BR was only posting what the creator of Dilbert was saying about buying BP-
BR has no position
@ahab
Nuff of that... we're talking about Strasburg here...
Ben - Here's the "idiot" thing...
We drafted the Fantasy Baseball League in March... Here's how people think... "Oh well, he's not going to play a game in the BIG Leagues until June so I won't take him until way later (if at all)...
So CV waits it out a few rounds (and draft Albert Pujols, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and some other sluggers/specialists in the process)...
Look people... DO THE MATH!
Let's talk STRIKEOUTS... OK so what if I have a NOT AVAILABLE roster spot holding until June?
The Nats have played 58 games out of 162 thus far... That means they have 104 more games... Strasburg (barring injuries) is going to get a start in a 4 pitcher rotation (which means he's going to get somewhere between 22-26 starts)...
F*** Dude, he could STILL win 20 games!... Further - His ERA is going to be low, and what CV loves is STRIKEOUTS...
Dude had 14 K's... 14X26= 364... I mean, 270 was like, TOPS in the MAJORS for a FULL SEASON last year...
Not that he'll fan 14 every game, but even if he averages 8 or 9... You're talking 200+ minimum...
The other dudes were drafting PITCHERS with their 2nd & 3rd picks to produce those numbers...
I got Strasburg in like the 12th round!
GIB
@ahab
I think I was addressing "scharfy" (who it seems BOUGHT BP if I wasn't mistaken)...
and from everyone's favorite show- Fast Money-
The S&P failed at 1087, adds Steve Grasso. Technically that’s significant and it says to me we're going lower. If we can't hold 1040 I think we plunge to 1000.
CV's take as well I believe
CV-
didn't catch that- scharfy buying BP-
I had misread BR's post from yesterday- so I was asking him if he had 2nd thoughts-
alas- no position
@ahab (7:49)
What's the world coming to when people start coming around to CV's POV...
I MUST BE WRONG!
I'm going to have spend the entire night RE-EVALUATING (because something's OBVIOUSLY not right here)... :-)
@Amen
Goldman Formally Lowers EURUSD Target From $1.35 To $1.15
Along the same lines as "ahabs" (7:49)...
Now Goldman is switching from their previously published 1.18, to the number you've printed here on a nightly basis for over 6 weeks now...
Dammit! BOTH OF US now are going to have a serious night of "re-contemplation"...
Now that the GIB is "signing-on", there has to be something seriously wrong with our POV's!
CV-
contrary to your intentional outward projection- you know and I know- and everyone here knows- you're a pretty smart dude-
have you considered a seat on Fast Money?
@ahab
Footnote:
As CV has stated MANY TIMES already this week...
I actually think BOTH of those occurrences may happen very shortly...
I penned a few weeks ago that I anticipated "completions" to occur on either June 7th or June 14th...
We had the opportunity to complete on June 7th, but THE WIZARD (in all his "Wizardry" saw to it that that would not happen)...
So now it's time for Mr. Market to BOOT STOMP him in the cojones...
Therefore - Both of the above PRINTS I think will occur (before next Monday - maybe even overnight tonight)... It'll happen so fast though most won't even be able to catch it...
It'll be FLASH CRASH-ish...
If I'm deft with my fingers, I'll try to go LONG at those levels (Both Euro-USD and SPY)...
Then I can have a relatively comfortable month until AFTER Citi reports in July and all hell breaks loose again...
@ahab
F*** FAST MONEY...
Anyway... They don't want BEARS, they want Cheerleaders...
They only bring Prechter on every once in a while to beat him up...
amusing- hat tip Kid Dynamite
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zt617zYAbng&feature=player_embedded
@ahab
All I try to do is to get the correct "musical choreography" to accompany the storyline...
CV-
but your mind is clicking pretty fast- quicker than most-
you know- the lone bear- getting the last laugh
yeah....Steve grASSo he's, "the man".....those are some real serious technical calls he's making now....you better shut up and listen to ASSO:
http://wallstreetandmain.com/blog/2010/04/09/video-robert-prechter-on-fast-money-he-says-stocks-present-a-great-short-opportunity-the-fast-money-guys-disagree/
@ahab
Nervous twitch...
I'll die of:
- an aneurism
- dementia
- alzheimers
- boredom
But I'll die "laughing" (so I've got THAT going for me)... :-)
BTW - where did you & your kid settle on for burgers?
@McF
Did you see the Strasburg fotos (up in the thread)?
CV-
dude- we were talking about crab cakes on your blog-
so guess what-
crab cakes and soft shell crabs which I had served as an appetizer-
couldn't get it out of my head
Grasso is the man-
dude's got it down-
but on a serious note- I did find it interesting that his comment was very similar to what CV has said recently-
who knows- maybe he reads the blog
CV friggin "LOVES" soft shell crabs!
In July, I'm going across the Bay to Crisfield and do some "crabbing" (softshell too - the "flashlight" method)...
@ahab
Cv is nothing more than "Cliffs Notes"...
Which, by the way scored me many "A"'s in school...
Gimme the 10 second version of something, and CV will take it to it's conclusion... Or otherwise, "mezmerize" you into thinking my conclusion is better... :-)
Jedi Mind Tricks... "These aren't the droids you're looking for" - lol
C,
I did see the pics, pretty cool. He looked pretty awesome so it would seem a huge steal in your fantasy league. We'll see how many K's next game....it was the Pirates.
Great pics, CV. Great point, ben. Playing the Pirates is like pitching against a Triple A team anyway. ;-)
Not to diminish the performance. It WAS awesome, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.
Ben,
Thanks for that RP/CNBC clip. It was a good laugh. Always funny to look back just two months.
Steve Grasso: Do you see any stoppage of the pumping? We're just talking about his timing. To call a fallout in May, to call a fall off the cliff in May is ridiculous.
And the winner for biggest DOUCHE-BAG of the year goes to..... *drum roll*.......
STEVE GRASSO!
*music blares but he does not appear*
Ah, Steve you here?
Steve?
Would anyone care to accept this douche bag on Steve's behalf?
mcHAPPY: Ummm, sorry Steve could not be here tonight. But I will be happy to accept this douche bag on Steve's behalf. I must say I was watching that clip in April and it gave me strength to carry on as a bear. I was about to throw in the towel. But Steve and the boys gave me the will to persevere. Thanks, Steve - you giant douche bag.
*applause and fade to commercial*
Our next award for the evening is Worst Comeback to a Deflationist ever.
*Drum roll*
And the winner is..... *friggin' envelope will not open*.... Surprise! Surprise! STEVE GRASSO!
*cut to clip*
"But Robert, we are operating on 14 times forward earnings."
Crowd roars in laughter and Steve is nowhere to be found to accept his award - again.
"Would anyone care to accept this steaming bag of shit on Steve's behalf?"
Even mcHAPPY will turn this one down.
Thanks, Steve. For all your thoughtful insight, a sincere thank you.
@mcHappy
LMFAO :-)
Hello!!!!! Missed you all so much
Got Lymes last year and have just had a bit of a relapse but feeling better. See you all here tomorrow.
I'm not totally sold on a huge drop tomorrow. Still some cold steel to apply me thinks, if we cannot break 1042.17 and then 1040.78. Could easily be working on a C wave here with one finished and two close to completion (or done!) OR we could be working on some sort of triangle or triple zigzag to work out over the next few trading days. MOnday and Thursday next week would be FIBO days (.618 and .786) off the 21 days leading to May 25 low. In case anyone doubts this as a possibility I ask you to think about June/July '09, October '09, and January '10. This shit can go on longer than we (or at least me) can keep sanity.
HOwever, and this is why I am 2/3's short here, we could easily hit 1000-1020 over the next 2 days.
Given the ramifications of hitting 1109-1115, I won't be too upset if this happens.
I swear... If I was ever on that show, I'd probably get into a fight with Najarian every single night...
Which would in turn...
Make him BEAT THE HELL OUT OF ME off-set after the show... CV can handle himself pretty well, but I SERIOUSLY DOUBT IT against Najarian...
I'd end up with more broken bones than Evel Knievel...
Nic!
We miss you SO MUCH!
I was ready to ask what happened... But now we know...
See you soon! :-)
That was some funny shit man...
both the clip and the screenplay!
Steve ASSO is a douche.
Seriously, what a friggin chump piker piece of shit.
CV,
Not that size has anything to do with anything but I'm 6'7" and 235 fairly solid pounds. I got you.
I hope they DO have Bobby back on in a few months so he can say...
Now what was that about forward earnings???
damn mchappy-
did you rehearse that in front of a mirror?
Nic-
sorry to hear- thought that shit was curable with antibiotics?
Hi Nic! It will be great to have you back... should be some good fun in the yen crosses just in time for your return.
@Mchappy
Come to think of it... I wouldn't be surprised to see something like a 1116-ish print...
- Fairly decent bounce off of that, but then some "wiggly squigglies" that explore around and find the TRUE PRINT...
Anywhere from 992 - 1116 is my BOX OF INTEREST... I don't have to catch the precise bottom...
I think that would set up for a WICKED "2" (which maybe goes all the way back up to 1150)...
Sorry... 1016 print... then 992-1016
CV-
Najarian- you grab that pony tail and smack his head into the table- on camera
then run run like a girl- off camera
CV,
This gap is what has been driving me insane. It has been a sore thumb. You've mentioned it and it has been discussed at EWI. Whenever intermediate 1 of P3 is over, there will be some crazy bounce on the long side as there is also the gap around 1150 I believe. And of course, Steve Grasso will be the first telling everyone to buy in at 1149. I can hear him now, "But we are operating on 12 times forward earnings here! Historic average is 16!! Think about that 16! We can even get up to 25 just like in 1999!"
Back to that clip when RP is talking about dividend yield, in the EWI webinar a couple of nights ago they talked about this. I've always thought about the dividend yield as one of the main ways to get an idea of a stock market's valuation, however, given the insights in the webinar I would have to say it is THE measure. Think about all the accounting changes over the last 30 years. We are not operating on the same fundamentals and valuations as Peter Lynch was in "How to Beat the Street."
CV,
Scary man. You better change your approach if you are thinking like me... or wait have I been subconsciously taking your thoughts as my own. lol.
Pretty much the only thing I'm working on these days is EW, here, Ra, and I-man.
Nic,
Glad to hear you are doing better and good to have you back.
McHappy,
man, that was hilarious.....that guy....he's 'that guy'.
@mcHappy (9:06)
That comes close to my point... In a nutshell, here it is...
- GAP at 1016
- GAP at 1116
- GAP at 1150
- GAP in the low 900's
So which gets targeted first (and in what order thereafter)?
- Well - let's start with the EASIEST TARGETS (1116 - 1016)...
- We're basically HALFWAY INBETWEEN
- We're coming to an OPEX WEEK
- Treasury has to cover some Bills & Bonds
- We can "blame it on BP & the Euros" if we have a few volatile days (in the next week)
- End of Quarter is coming
- 4th of July BBQ's on the heels of that
- WORLD CUP in play
- Earnings season (banks reporting first) a few weeks away...
Doesn't it make sense to GIVE IT UP (here and NOW) for a few days, then go ahead and start the upwards grind (which would be bolstered by all the news JOHNNY wants to hear)?
"We've finally hit bottom"
"Typical recovery"
La-La-La-La-La
Plus, then BUCKY could have completed it's "5" wave (and it would have all made sense)...
Just saying!
We can "blame it on BP & the Euros" if we have a few volatile days (in the next week)
...and on that note - VIX put in a hammer candle today... Just saying...
CV,
No doubt on all that. It is tough to figure out where we go right now because of all the variables and options.
Glad I could provide a laugh.
Goodnight all. Maybe tomorrow we can finally get some answers to this riddle.
@mcHappy
Strictly wave... It's probably 50-50...
I'd give the "timing" edge to DOWN FIRST - UP SECOND...
via ZH- Pento says-
I look at markets and I look at economics, and since this whole rebound was derived by artifical means, why would I ever believe that we are not going into double dip recession. Should I listen to Ben Bernanke or should I listen to the price of oil which contracted from $85 to $72 a barrell in few weeks, should I listen to the 10 Year that went from 4% to 3.2%
in a few weeks, should I listen to Doctor Copper that went from $3.50 a pound to $2.77 a pound: where would I want to put my allegiance with, markets or Ben Bernanke. We need to sell assets, and we need to allow the deleveraging process to consummate. We are going in a wrong direction and that's the double dip recession is virtually assured.
good observation there
OK you wave guys ... I have been reading wave analysis for AUD which is my favourite risk predictor and they are all really bearish, as in five down completed, ABC up and we are on our way down again. Is that how you guys are seeing the SPX?
I am just kind of leaning to more of a bounce before we break 1038. AUDUSD has triple bottomed off a big pivot level from 1995 so I am more risk bounce inclined ... (not trend change, just a swing)
(Sorry if you have been talking about this endlessly already, it will take me til dawn to read what I have missed)
@Nic
My "synthesis" is that I'm expecting to break support (1040) here, but the "effect" of it to be FLASH-CRASHISH...
IOW - A "breakdown" here (scary as it may be) - might present some short term BULLISH scenarios... (as it did from FLASH CRASH 1065 all the way back up to 1173 in short order)... Something to that degree...
Factor it in that way...
Thanks CV - that makes sense.
Great Clip on RP and Fast Money.....
That'll be an instant classic.
The only one who made any sense there is Simon, the british host.
...and Prechter,
of course...
those other folks seem like real bozos
Haha, just watched the video. What's up with that guy who looks like he's glowing? Just to the right of Simon(our left). Looks like he just ate plutonium. He should have a doctor check that out.
just to make sure every one is on the same page-
that Prechter video is dated April 8-
sad to see how hostile everyone was- RP only stating his case-
which so far has proven to be "on the money'
thanks ahab, I didn't realize that. Usually I catch Prechter videos when they come out, but I hadn't seen this one, so I assumed it was new - didn't catch the date. Maybe I was too distracted by that guy's glowing skin...
ahab,
yeah, I guess I should have mentioned that was April, which is why Asso's calls now look even more ridiculous.
it's pretty evident in the video which traders were approaching the market from an emotional standpoint and which tradER was not.
and they had all the "right" arguments....
but p/e
but forward earnings
but you're discounting cash flow
but you need an event, a fundamental catalyst for large move down
and those that doubt wave or TA in general for that matter for it being "subjective"....compared to what?
you have to see this
http://yelnick.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c563953ef0133f07a04b1970b-popup
DP
This guy BR is beautiful:
" Since then, we deployed about 25% long but fully hedged with QIDs"
Does anyone else remember that "with QIDs" caveat?
I don't....but congrats to him...he's always right.
I wonder if he has a "magical mystical number" in mind...
Anon,
but dicks arm said.
b22-
RP is cool- he is the calm in the center of the storm-
that one of the Najarian's is asking him to be specific as to how much the downside would be-
what a stupid fucking question-
as if anyone would know that answer-
next thing is they will be asking for his specific stock picks-
stooges
@AndyT 10:57
"LOL" (really, it was there the whole time)
nic -
was just about to ask karen if she had heard from you on the sideband. so sorry to hear you were laid low. didn't realize that relapse (recurrence) was all that common. hope you have licked it once and for all.
Nic
WB! Glad you are feeling better.
---------------------------
Futures are churning waiting for a catalyst.
ahab
They are always asking for specifics. But they start stuttering when you ask them to be specific.
Actually, he did say this on May 25th:
“We are 24% long, with a 6% short position in the QIDs. Hence, our net exposure is 18%.”
Somewhere along the way he went "fully hedged."
Good for him.
RP looked like he couldn't wait for the segment to be over...lol.
Did anyone send them the clip as a reminder of how wrong they were?
Ra @ 11:14-
no doubt-
re the fast money crew being reminded of how wrong they were-
I don't think Prechter really cares- he states his case and if you don't buy it-
your loss
out for the night- will check in in the AM
>> It's probably 50-50...
But only a 10% chance of *that*.
Is that other Barry, Steve Barry, still holding his QID positions bought oh so many qtr's ago?
McFearless I have a good socionomics article for you (and what a waste of tax dollars too.)
http://bit.ly/bHo4H6
Crime rate way down, incarceration rate massively up.
Glad you're on the upswing, Nic. Good to have you back.
IW
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