A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
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SPXBearish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is kryptonite. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Back below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back below the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1071.59. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day. Indecision (it wants to go higher). Midpoint above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Now above the 85.4% retrace. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 86.21.
VIXBullish short day. Not as volatile as I thought it would be. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing Mondays do go down. Held the 23.6% retrace and still above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBullish long day. Confirmed bullish piercing. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1188.60.
EURUSDBearish short day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. 1.2028 (the .2058 fibo) not touched and the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is next. Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Imagine a game of musical chairs but there's only one chair. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.2201.
JNKInverted hammer day (we'll see). Risk is OFF so not sure about a reversal. Tested the 0.0% retrace (failed) and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish long day. Confirmed doji. Back below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. No test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).
WTISpinning top day. Start of morning star pattern? Closed below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Tested the 23.6% retrace at 69.65 (passed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 68.01).
36 comments:
wonder if anyone here will be able to call the top in the dollar.....
Just back from the track missed the close. Interesting.
I read the notes about TWSWB. Did I miss the point? Was he poking fun at the Bearish side of the market, and then when the comments on his blog got too tough said he was only 25% long now?
If that IS the case, we have a word for that here in the south. Starts with an "H"...
McF:
Is that a challenge?
Ben
That depends on how bad it gets.
Hey, Ben.
We are now down just over 12% from the 2010 high. Predictions?
As I repeatedly stated, I think the Gulf will be a huge drag for the rest of the year, maybe longer. And I really liked Laffer's WSJ article, although I am not a fan of his in general. This article though about bringing forward GDP for tax advantages struck a chord with me. Done it myself.
You are here! Too funny! Ben, what a challenge! At the beach, tho.. it'll have To to wait. Thanks, AR!
"wonder if anyone here will be able to call the top in the dollar....."
Well, I think we did pretty well calling the bottom, so what's to prevent us from getting a "top?"
ahhh....I figured that would get the squad riled up.
Karen,
nice ruby slippers.
re: VIX, I'm thinking nobody linked this today:
http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv
MrTopStep w/ Danny:
http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv#p/a/u/1/UPDR71SRJcc
TWSWBs is a funny guy. His post this morning on double dip or "soft patch" was silly.
Finally got to it and this was my response:
------------------------------------------
“Um, we are 75% cash — or doesn’t that mean anything to you guys?”
So, what are you saying with this? That you’ll be the tallest midget if the market stumbles hard? Congratulations….you may outperform Ken Fisher and Bob Doll if things go to real shit.
You portray yourself as this “data driven” and “analytical” type investor. And, that’s cool. But where’s the data and analysis here?
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“As Yale Professor Robert Shiller pointed out in a recent Sunday NYT article, “When inflation-adjusted G.D.P. has come out of a decline and posted three or four quarters of gains, it has never immediately begun to fall again — at least not since quarterly numbers began to be issued in 1947.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Is that the data point which supports this thesis? What’s the sample size there? Is it statistically significant? Good luck with that….
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Indeed, even Capex and employment plans for the upcoming year show a potential upswing. ISI reports that their mid-year survey of CFOs shows the percentage of companies planning to boost their capex & hiring in 2010 has increased markedly. This would be heading in the opposite direction if we were on the verge of a double dip recession.
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A forward looking survey of CFOs? What the hell man? From what I can gather of this post, those are the two main ideas upon which you are hanging your argument: a) Just because it hasn’t happened since 1947; and b) a survey of CFOs.
I know there’s probably more rigor in there somewhere and this is only just a blog entry. The technicals suggest that the 1200+ ticks on the S&P were the top for “some time” to come. I don’t think we’ll see a “crash” or take out the lows of 666, but a deep correction (think 800’s) is “in the cards” over the next couple of years, if not within the next several months.
Good Luck.
AT.
following up on AT's post and something I touched on earlier-
has anyone noticed the amount of dissent over at TBP?
the crowd has definitely turned against BR and his "it's a typical recovery" mantra- and-
I find it almost shocking that BR doesn't have some amount of respect for the deflation tailspin argument-
it appears that he is sitting on 75% cash until his buy signals kick back in because he is so certain that the "typical recovery" is a done deal-
personal opinion- his man is in the White House- so he's all in on the recovery bandwagon
You know,"they" say bear markets grind you down...profit is hard....
Maybe this is still a bear market.
@ahab:Not been watching (and posting comments) @TBP on such a regular basis as you. However, I believe you're being somewhat paranoid about it.:p
@ahab
All I know is that CV is glad "somebody" (or a few people) finally taking up the torch that I started when I started RANTING INCESSANTLY about the "typical recovery" thing...
Only thing now is... If too many people get on board with it I might have to change my viewpoint... LOL :-)
Frankly...
I think ben put the issue soberly this weekend in some comments of his I read...
The synthesis is this...
- Most people are "BULLS" by nature... (Frankly, CV is a bull, because I have a positive outlook on life itself... I enjoy the challenges, and I even relish the occasional pain & heartache_... I SINCERELY BELIEVE in a better future...
- However, I'm not against seeing IMBALANCES... And when something is being done wrong in an OPERATIONAL sense, my instincts tell me so... I will purposefully set my agenda into DISMANTLE mode if I feel something needs to be TORN DOWN COMPLETELY to make way for the NEW...
- Many others cannot make that distinction... That's not a criticism, just an observation... They see TEARING DOWN as moving BACKWARD... I see TEARING DOWN, SOMETIMES, as moving forward...
- So going back to FUSION... I think Ritholtz is a pretty smart guy underneath it all... The problem is, since he has signed on a whole bunch of new clients, his "tone" has to be in a way that they can probably understand... THUS the dichotomy...
So it is probably normal, that a bunch of us here on the blogosphere can point fingers at him (because most of are more aware of the UNDERTONES of the situation at large - whereas his "clients" may not)...
BR is "doing the song & dance"... I suppose it's not unlike taking a company public...
You're like... "Oh crap - Now I have to push paper, file reports, and hire a PR firm to handle my image"...
Who the hell needs that?
But at the same time, BR chose that path... So we "garage banders" can wag fingers at him all day long and tell him he sold out to THE MAN... LOL
Meanwhile - He's sipping his fine scotch in his mansion in Bel Air saying... "Yeah - Life's really tough here at the top of the Billboard Charts"...
wolf-
dude- what happened to the penguin? Also- not sure how adept you are on the nuances of the English language- but paranoid is not the right tag-
I am almost certain that BR is not out gunning for me(-:!!!
CV-
his "soft spot" post today sent me over the edge-
but I find it interesting how many people are now challenging him on his own blog-
I am wondering now- if like F411- recovery is in the bag for BR because he likes the current WH/congressional mix
Many others cannot make that distinction... That's not a criticism, just an observation... They see TEARING DOWN as moving BACKWARD... I see TEARING DOWN, SOMETIMES, as moving forward
exactly- the big reset-
get people to come down to reality-
to what is important and real
@ahab
It's hard to get people to do that...
You gotta tear them away from their AMERICAN IDLE first...
Note: I didn't misspell that
Turn around Tuesday? Futures green.
to follow on anon @ 9:07
Bloomberg poll-
"Almost 4 of 10 respondents picked the U.S. as the market presenting the best opportunities in the year ahead. That’s more than double the portion who said so last October, when the U.S. was rated the market posing the greatest downside risk by a plurality of respondents.
Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, said this attests to Obama’s success in “restoring the United States to strong economic fundamentals.” He added that “while there remains much to do, the U.S. economy is growing.”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA-
Summers' is either posting the party line at gunpoint or is delusional-
I hate partisans and bullshit
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704080104575286760022273010.html
Drop in Home Sales in Wake of Tax Credit Tops Forecast
"Economists and real estate analysts expected home sales to slow after the tax credit, of as much as $8,000, expired at the end of April. But early data from real-estate brokers indicate that the sales decline has been far more substantial than expected, with some markets showing declines of 25% to 30%."
.....Apparently something was stimulating the housing market other than demand, or as they say, demand was tremendously brought forward...
Laffer may not be a genius, but I think he's on to something...and it ain't housing rebate crack...
@Ahab, US market is best of the worst lot. U$D coming home. Nothing more.
@ahab
"almost 4 in 10"... That's nice! Let's see, mathematically it's LESS than 40%...
38.2 would be a nice FIBONACCI fit for that ratio...
But hey, didn't Clinton himself get to be President in 1992 with only something like 43-37 (because Ross Perot stole 19%)?...
But that success was FISH FACE Larry's springboard to success, so he should undoubtedly be impressed with such figures...
Or is "40" the number of BILLIONS he depleted out of the Harvard endowment because of bad bets...
Cv's math is a little fuzzy...
...after all, "It's the ECONOMY stupid"...
@anon
USD...
Be careful... If you've been reading here, the "game" here (as of tonight) is to "call" the wave 1 top... (which is likely coming within single digit trading days)...
Not that anyone really probably needs to GET SHORT...
The wave 2 "correction" targets for the dollar probably co-incide (more or less) with the early May levels...
@anon
Futures GREEN don't phase me that much (unless you were a lightning quick trader)...
Don't quote me on this, but if there's a rebound to 1065 early in the session, CV may go ULTRASHORT...
Thanks, C!
Hussman's weekly market comment is also what you, Ben and Ament are saying. Too much sovereign debt and not enough income to cover it. Hence, deflation coming.
hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100607.htm
I read this and laughed: Euro Rises From 8-Year Low, Stocks Gain on Bernanke’s Comments
The U.S. economic recovery is “moderate-paced” and started late last summer, Bernanke said yesterday, boosting investor confidence after concern over Europe’s debt crisis drove benchmark U.S. stock indexes to seven-month lows. The U.S. has supplanted China and Brazil as the most attractive market, with investors betting money on President Barack Obama’s stewardship of the U.S. economy, according to a global quarterly poll of investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers.
“Bernanke’s comments have had a soothing effect on markets after what’s been a pretty bleak few sessions,” said Tim Waterer, a foreign-exchange dealer with CMC Markets in Sydney. “The mood on Asian equities is a bit calmer and that’s allowed some of the currencies that have been heavily hit, like the euro and Aussie, to eke out gains.”
and now ZH's take on BB: Is Excess Economic Slack No Longer A Factor For Ben Bernanke?
Ciao.
@Amen (11:00)
"The U.S. has supplanted China and Brazil as the most attractive market, with investors betting money on President Barack Obama’s stewardship of the U.S. economy, according to a global quarterly poll of investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers"...
...so they have THAT going for them...
Ahab@somewhere around the clock:don't worry about the penguin:p
The lad has been around for free. He'll find his way through any bitter times(unlike many others).
Kind of natural meritocracy OS.
How fuckin great is this Amen Ra guy?
Can I get a witness?
I-Man's got it all on lock, check this:
SPX cools out at 920 in July, probably could get long that and enjoy some short covering festivities, then some good ole fashioned low volume churn higher that will feel dirtier than Lil Wayne with a bowl of grits but you'll love it...
Top out in October around Phi (1078 if you aint privy) and get back to bidness on the short side.
.
.
.
And thats how you let the beat build...
1126 on an overshoot in October because I like the sound of that number...
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