A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
I'd rather be in the hurricane!
SPXBullish day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is waiting for retest. Closed above the 21 & 233 SMA's. Midpoint now above 10EMA. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (BSx2). New high on daily 3LB reversal with reversal still 1050.47. Still confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish short day. Midpoint below 10EMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back above the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint below 10EMA. Fear is here no matter how the market trades. Closed below the weekly 3LB mid and below 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBullish thrusting day. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint below 10EMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1188.60).
EURUSDBearish short day. Midpoint below the 10EMA. Still above the fibo .2058 at 1.2028. Still coming soon is the test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2201).
JNKBullish short day. Tested the 14.6% retrace (failed) and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA (barely). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBullish thrusting day. Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10EMA. No test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 144.95).
BPDoji day. Not a good confirmation of bullish harami star. Closed back above the 0.0% retrace. Still below the 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.86).
WTIDark cloud cover day. Trading above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Tested the 50.0% retrace at 75.69 (failed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 69.41).
48 comments:
http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2010/06/07/so-just-what-did-canada-do/
And yet, there it is. Suddenly everyone wants to know about Canada. Specifically about Canadian government finances during the 1990s. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is only the latest in a line of treasury ministers wondering how he might be able to reproduce the Canadian economic miracle at home.
And what a miracle it was. Taking over as finance minister in 1993, Paul Martin inherited a looming disaster. The government was running a deficit worth 6.6% of GDP. By the following year, gross government debt had hit 101% of GDP, while net debt was over 70%, even as GDP registered a strong rebound–it grew 4.8% in 1994–from the recession of the early 1990s.
His 1995 budget planted a flag in the sand. “Come hell or high water,” Martin said, he would get the budget under control.
Ha, Bruce, what miracle? All that debt was transferred to provincial(state) governments' books. A big 15% tax(GST&PST) was introduced. A lot of medicare was cut.
Chop, Chop, Chop!
CV, I don't know why I am having trouble reading comments if they go over 200. Up to 200 no problem.
@Amen
(from other thread)...
I tend to agree with your comment on the WEEKLY SPX candle...
But it seems I haven't made myself clear...
I think we're going down (below 1040), possibly next week... But after Thursday, I'm discounting the idea that it might be from a higher level...
1110? 1120? 1130? I don't know...
My "feeling" is that it'll resolve quickly (possibly even by the JOHNNY HOUR on Monday)...
That's what I'm watching for...
I want to go ULTRA SHORT this market (and I'm already short but with a hedge)... I'm just trying to be a proper as possible on the entry point so as to have as little "cold steel" as possible applied...
Undoubtedly there will be some (as I have no fantasy about picking the exact entry spot)...
Candles tell me though, in this moment, that it might be slightly higher than this weeks close...
As usual... I may be wrong...
We're back to the point of WEEKENDS BEING NERVOUS FOR EVERYONE... (except for DL who thinks that it'll take 3 years to "skippity on down" to a 20% correction)...
@Amen that "Thursday" (from above) meant yesterday...
Thought for sure Henry was going to nail that free kick...
@Amen
Look at that SPX candle... Poised to break over the 21SMA (or not)...
If it does, it'll set off a stampede... FALSE - IMO...
But that's what I'm looking for... Stars are aligning here...
(for BEARS - I mean)...
Ra,
I apologize... THANK YOU for the wrap.
And btw, 1078 is still krptonite... to I.
CV
I'm thinking that any test/close over 1110 is the trigger. It has cycled through the range of 1110-1041. It NEEDS to close above 1110. A test of 1110 and a close below it and I'm going short (again).
@ LB
Time for a new Avatar.
Remember this image tomorrow...
@Amen
That's funny because that's EXACTLY what I was going to say (but then decided to leave open ended)...
In fact... I think that's EXACTLY what we do (early next week)...
I'll be curious to see HOW HIGH a move like that might go... A move which stretches into the 1120's that gets reeled back in might be an interesting day...
Give the VIX one more down day, then pull the trigger...
Popcorn?
CV
Sure. But make mine cheese and caramel :-)
@Amen
Hey man...
I'll have Supermodels feed it to you on a velvet barcalounger if you want :-)
CV
Works for me!
Figures this news would hit after the market closes: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asZJpgCqtFkg&pos=6
Exchange Co-Location Advantage Targeted in CFTC Access Proposal
By Nina Mehta
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a rule requiring futures markets improve access to their exchanges, an attempt to eliminate advantages for customers who pay for the speediest connections.
Commissioners are seeking approval of a plan that would provide equal access and fairer pricing for a service known as co-location, which allows traders to house their computers within feet of exchange trading engines or data centers. Co- location reduces the time it takes to transmit data and act on prices, making it a favored service of automated trading firms.
The role of high-frequency investors has come under increased scrutiny after lawmakers questioned their role in the May 6 stock market crash that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down almost 1,000 points. Such companies use electronic strategies to capture tiny price discrepancies and make up more than 60 percent of U.S. stock trades, according to New York- based research firm Tabb Group.
“The provision relating to fees would ensure that cost is not used as a means to deny access to some market participants by pricing them out of the market,” the CFTC said in a statement on its website. It is considering how to respond to the expansion of high-frequency and algorithmic tactics “to ensure that these traders do not have a negative impact on the stability of commission-regulated futures and options markets.”
Checking out and reading TBP....there are some real numbnuts over there now. The whole oil thing was a "hoot."
I swear BR is a lefty liberal/borderline socialist, if not a full blown STATIST on various issues.
check it out-
what ever happened to stewardesses like this-
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user971/imageroot/airlines003.jpg
man- the one's I see nowadays- woeful- sometimes they're even men- even more woeful
Andy-
don't you understand- the bad bad oil company is drilling for something that everyone gladly pays money for every single second-
they are polluting the earth by making me buy their products to fill up my car, heat my house, run my air conditioning- even my damn running shoes need that oil-
bastards- how come they can't just sell me hemp instead
and here is a great post from ZH- very long (but very good)so save it for later in the weekend-
$34 Billion Asset Manager Says Market Prices Are Manipulated, Accuses NYSE Of Intellectual Property Theft, Debunks HFT "Liquidity Provider" Lies
ahab at 8.07PM
That's funny man...
"The EVIL companies forced me to drive and AC my house. CURSE them! Bastards!!!!"
@ahab,
do you remember the SW Airline stewies from the 70's,
....ok let me find an image/video to link...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR7JApjgIGw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHnqnyzegfc&feature=related
...the good, old (gold) politically incorrect days...
@AT- the evil oil companies indeed...bastards!
@ahab
Re: (8:03)
They became this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lhakmbwf1dg
'Anon' statements are incomplete at best.
What Canada did was exactly as described in the article linked by BinT. My only disagreement is on the welfare/unemployment system. Not too sure on the development of it as I've never availed of the system (but pay in quite a bit!) but the unemployment insurance (actually called E.I. or employment insurance to put a positive connotation on it) is generous considering it is 'free' money. A person in Canada is better off on EI than making minimum wage - which is why my heart goes out to the working poor here, they choose not to take a handout.
The GST came about from the previous PC government in Canada. An idea by Mulroney at 9% that later came in at 7% in 1991. This was a value added tax (i.e. federal sales tax) on pretty much everything in Canada in addition to the provincial sales tax (think state sales tax for American readers). PST in Canada ranged from 0% in Alberta to 12% in Newfoundland. IN the last number of years HST (Harmonized sales tax) has been implemented by many provinces such as the Atlantic provinces (15% - 8% PST/7% GST). In 2005, with the PC's back in power, the GST was cut to 5%.
Medicare (actually called MCP here) is a provincial responsibility as determined by the British North America Act of 1867 (this was eventually replaced by the Canada Act of 1982 when Canada actually stopped having to send our legislation to Britain for final approval). The Queen now is a figure head more than anything else but still has a respresentative in Govenor General (who convenes Parliment and dissolves government). MCP may have been hampered by the decrease in transfer payments via federal government but this would have only placed more onus on provincial governments.
The 90's were extremely difficult for Canada as it became less of a socialist country but still far from the once capitalist USA.
I must say the talk of Canada the last few months is quite disturbing. We have the most debt of any G20 country and are carrying 144% debt to income ratio. This exceeds by nearly 10% the US at its peak.
A $75 BILLION stimulus package here would be the equivalent of $750 Billion in USA. We are running massive deficits once again and it seems ol' Stevie Harper is doing all he can to F*CK up 10 years of belt tightening and sacrifices in as short of time frame as possible.
The previous Liberal government stayed too long and was too greedy towards the end (see sponsorship scandal) much like previous PC government stayed too long and became corrupt (see Airbus Scandal and Mulroney/Schrieber scandal).
It seems Canada's best days was when we were still a laughing stock (see Blame Canada - "They aren't even a real country anyway!") with little military involvement but huge peace keeping efforts and a focus to paying off debt rather than creating more.
I hope for the days to return soon - and Harper to be on his ass.
CV,
The trend is down and it will resume this week.
The only question is when does it happen. Monday and Thursday are the days I'm circling.
Option 1: After Johnny hour open the trap door.
Option 2: A significant drop Monday followed by a rally for a few days and then the trap door is removed.
Option 2 will allow me to get out of my stupid 1/3 short position even. Option 1 will make me forget my lapse in judgement.
Wes-
Exactly- those were the days- WTF is going on up in the skies now?
CV- lmao-
not that there is anything wrong with that- lol
On my Canada rant, bottom line:
Anyone praising us should be looking at 1993-2005 in terms of budgets/financial matters.
2005 onwards has been getting worse and worse.
Nic's link from early today sums it up quite nicely:
http://fundamentaltrader.wordpress.com/2010/06/11/bitumen-bolts/
I come back from work to discover the market has gone UP!? Who's *ass* do I have to kick to trigger some forced hedge fund liquidations?
mcH-
who's praising Canada?
I haven't heard one person- although- the beer is pretty decent-
and Vancouver is pretty cool- and Alberta- up in Waterton Lakes NP is pretty cool
I agree McH ... Worse and Worse.
Some breathtaking (and heartbreaking) pictures from the Gulf of Mexico.
The land is beautiful here.
The taxes will kill you, you literally pay tax again and again every time you sell something. You are expected to pay taxes if you sell your junk in a yard sale. If you buy a used car you have to pay tax, not on what you actually paid for the used car but what the Govt decides is the price and which has not been altered since the bottom fell out of the market.
Healthcare is a nightmare.
Toronto where I am has corrupt police who are paid more than any other police force in Canada and that ain't going to change recession or not.
The legal system is unaffordable for just about everyone on a normal income and when that happens you may as well have no laws.
I actually would prefer to be in Britain and that's saying something
Oh dear, do I sound a bit bitter tonight.:)
Have a good weekend. I (and I am sure LB) will try not to be too obnoxious when England wins tomorrow.
@Andy T
Relax about BR Andy...
It's only his way of constantly reminding people that the has a big phat boat and that his hobbies are
"fat cars & fast women"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=einZgVrnfG0&feature=related
Nic-
the earth survives always- until the sun explodes-
in thousands or millions of years- there is no sign of any disruption from any cause-
we like to think how the earth should be-
and that is a joke always- it will go on with or without us
should we slop it up- my thought is no-
is it the end of the world- well of course not- the world doesn't need us to continue on
McHappy we all pay EI and it funds itself. In 2008 EI paid out about 16 billion to those who were unemployed.
The problem is that on March 31, 2008 there was a 56 billion surplus in the EI account so the Government just helped itself and put it in the general budget.
Now if we really do have a nasty recession that money (paid for by people as insurance) has gone and who will pay then?
@Nic
"who will pay then?"
Obama... & he'll take care of your gas and mortgage while he's at it...
Thanks for making me smile CV
and to follow up on my last post-
what about London or Cleveland?
at different times they were the filthiest places on the planet-
different centuries- but Cleveland as recently as 1969- had rivers on fire-
that's pretty damn polluted-
sadly- when you burn things to make things- it all gets pretty nasty-
thankfully its all in China now
. . .and I guess my ultimate point is- no-one in the Western world wants to see the environmental degradation of their own actions-
let the pollution happen in China- for all the things we want- god forbid we would have to endure it here-
oil? anyplace else but here- it just sucks otherwise and ruins the scenery-
yes- I want all the conveniences- and none of the associated problems-
beyond lame- in the end- we want the conveniences without the acknowledgement of the costs- unknowing-
oblivious of our own actions
Ahab you are right.
When you think about the tainted baby milk in China and the melamine in the pet food god knows what it is like there.
alright- I'm out for the night-
Nic- thanks for acknowledging my posts- I was wondering if I was saying shit like I was wandering around in the wilderness-
but- alas- someone heard me(-:!!!!
have an awesome night(-:!!!
You're the man Ahab, we love your posts.
I-Man is getting very pumped for tomorrow...
I love ya Ahab!
I particularly love how you go over to TWSWB and call him on out on his shit ;)
Try again. This chart is a bit worrying
Where's the S&Ps PE ratio now? [chartoftheday]
>> beyond lame- in the end- we want the conveniences without the acknowledgement of the costs- unknowing-
Ahab, but who's to blame for that? I'll speak in defense of liberals.... Liberals (including "liberals" like Ross Perot) wanted trade barriers commensurate with the difference in enviro and labor laws. So-called "fair trade". Liberals did *not* want cheap goods at the expense of their jobs and the expense of Chinese workers' health. Many knew full well what would happen when we pass these "free trade" agreements.
From Jesse:
There are a number of IPO's coming out next week, including one for the CBOE. Goldman Sachs is an underwriter on most of them.
So we might expect some shenanigans on the equity front, as they will try and support the markets while they get the IPO's priced and out the door. The primary downside risk there is 'headline risk' as volumes remain light. Few actually believe that there is an economic recovery.
Cr@p, just noticed you said you're out for the nite, Ahab. That must mean I'm too lazy, er, tired to read.
G'nite, all.
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