A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
You are here...still
SPXBullish day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is kryptonite. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Still below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (wuss). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1071.59). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day (again). Midpoint above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXBearish long day (really? why?). Midpoint above 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing Tuesdays should go down (turnaround...argh). Held the 23.6% retrace and still above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDSpinning top day. Still confirming bullish piercing. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1188.60).
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. 1.2028 (the .2058 fibo) not touched and the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is next. Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2201).
JNKBearish short day. Did not confirm inverted hammer so risk is still off. Tested the 0.0% retrace (closed on it) and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish short day. Still weak. Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. No test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).
SLVSpinning top day. Moving too fast? Probably not. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Still below the 21 SMA. Tested the 76.4% retrace (failed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.12).
47 comments:
Ra,
Great descriptions on the charts man and thanks as always for the wrap. The hurricane pic is sweet....spirals, phi, life.
A cool site for any golfers here:
http://www.oobgolf.com/
Ra,
You getting the impression that the downtrend may begin to accelerate a bit here?
When I look at your SPX/EURUSD charts, I feel like we need more space at the bottom of the chart... I keep trying to scroll down on them.
Ben,
I did not see this initially, actually saw it when I checked for the last few posts after I finished the Webinar from EWI tonight.
From previous thread re: losing decent coin when first discovered EW due to a lot of trading.
I've been pretty patient - until today. Two positives going for me: not all in and trend is most definitely down. Probably experience some severe discomfort for a few days.
@ I
re: trying to scroll charts down
I was thinking the same thing the last 2 days. I cannot find anyting that I consider to be a bottom after 1040.78.
I see what you guys do, lots of air under there....does make me think that we can see 800's before the year is over.
Picked up some great numbers from EWI webinar this evening for the next time anyone confronts a brainwashed fool professing the greatness of buy and hold and/or over 10 years you can't lose in the stock market:
Since 1999
Strategy 1: rolling over 3-month t-bills every redemption and profits returned 31.36%
Strategy 2: S&P including dividends -8.46%
Ben,
Finally going to unload a rental property. Put up for sale hoping to make $100K in 2 years. Fingers crossed. But don't worry, there is no bubble in Canadian real estate ;)
I-Man & mcHAPPY
My other fibo levels are already on the chart. When they come into range you'll see them ;)
McHappy,
I'm no expert on Canadian RE but based on what I've read that seems like a good idea. Good luck man, hope it works out.
Ben
I was not even thinking about Phi when I chose that pic...lol. Must be a subconscious thing.
It looks like we need one more small jog lower on the Euro to about 118 to complete a small little "five" lower. If we get some sort of "freakout" headline overnight that sends the Euro to 118, it would be very tempting to take a small shot on the long side for the obligatory dead cat bounce.
Anyone else getting pumped for World Cup? I took a lot of bets against the US vs. England as an "emotional" hedge. Would LOVE LOVE to see the US take down England.....but I don't think it happens. US is 4:1 long shot.
http://dealbreaker.com/2010/06/jimmy-lee-credit-markets-are-wide-open/#more-22592
I'm looking forward to world cup...gotta get ready for fantasy still.
over the memorial day weekend, i planted a "fibonacci garden"...based the design on the perfect spiral of life...not a veggie garden, but a garden using native TX plants grouped in whole fibo numbers...
For the S&P 500, would you characterize the pattern of yesterday + today as a piercing pattern?
Was the June 2, 3, 4 pattern an evening star, or does it not count because it was not during an uptrend?
Is there any significance of getting a hammer on the 25 May following a harami, and now, what looks like a piercing pattern? (I.e., is it trying to iron a bottom?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jDEjTqzIqE&feature=digest
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DWL6boFnls&feature=digest
Sorry if someone else already linked these today....they were both good updates
one more
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9I3HrL9tgFs&feature=digest
Wes,
very cool on the fibo garden!
Anon
Not a piercing (to me) because today needed to open equal to or lower than yesterdays close. More of a bullish harami (but needs confirmation).
thanks ben, it is pretty cool, too...
i've been trying to let you know, on some random and rare comments, that i learned a lot from you and LB re. dollar strengthening...took a while for DGDF kinda guy to catch your drift, so to speak...
...and have acted accordingly...thanks for your persistent and consistent point of view...
@Wes, second your 7:59.
Yes, Ben and CV and most people around here are cool, special.
"Forget the v-shaped U.S. recovery". - CNNMoney.com via yahoo.com. Worthless, after the fact news. Not good for traders or investors.
From Canada.
1. Who sold gold today? Was there a large margin call somewhere?
2. Was is the fear of 1040 or 1050 that drove the market higher?
3. Are the bulls nervous because short covering wasn't a driver in the move higher?
Big game for the Green Team tonight! A win tonight and I think they grab #18 in 5 or 6.
After closing under 1110.02 (fibo .09) we've had days: R-G-R-G-R-G R-R-G-G-R-R G-?
Next pattern is G-G or G-R?
@Amen, re gold. Broke record in several currencies i.e. CAD and INR.
Lot of nervous and worried Indian parents( dowry).
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Lumber prices are sinking. And while that might make a trip to Home Depot cheaper, it's also a sign that the global economic recovery and the U.S. housing rebound are in danger of stalling.
Only a few months ago, inflation was the main worry of many economists. But falling prices for the raw materials of many industries, including lumber, have set off deflation warning bells for some economists, who worry that they could signal another global economic downturn.
Prices for framing lumber have tumbled 21% from their peak only five weeks ago, according to figures from the National Association of Home Builders.
Anon
Are parents informing daughters that they'll have to reschedule the wedding? Are men asking any woman who walks by to marry them?
...ok, now that i have commented, the contrarian thinks this means a bounce in the USD...he, he, he,...no prob...
@wes
Totally cool about the garden... Fotos please (I promise I won't fumble it like the meatballs)... :-)
@Privately Employed
CV can say from the ground that with regards to the LUMBER situation, it's been VERY capricious lately...
I'm a BIG BUYER of lumber... (for the farm)...
But I buy it incrementally (at Home Depot)... I've probably trucked 12 tons of it back to the farm this year alone... I'm always looking for what's ON SALE...
Sometimes I'll just "stock up" on future needs (if I see a good sale - and there have been many)... Yet they also seem to last for only a short while (maybe others are wise to the same idea)...
Frankly, I don't know how to assess the situation... Except to say this...
EVENTUALLY - all the lumber gets sold (but often it'll just sit there until they mark it down to MOVE IT)...
...cv, that's funny...no problems, luv ya man...
CV, like Ben 22, I have decided to change my name.
BinT/PE
@Privately Employed
...and to add to that... My notion is this...
Despite the housing downturn, my view is that it would be very unusual to ever see an absolute ROUT in lumber prices...
When you consider it (versus base metals & other commodities)... It really doesn't have a "2nd life" value...
Eventually - things wear out and morph... Base metals can always be collected, and tossed back in to be "re-smelted" for a 2nd life... You need real growth for bottlenecks to occur there...
Same for many plastics (I'm being OVERLY GENERAL here), glass, paving, concrete, rebar (which falls back into the base metals category), etc.
Lumber, basically, has a single life (again - oversimplified thesis, but I hope you know where I'm going with this)...
@BinT/PE
I'm still CV... LOL
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f9cdbb64-7319-11df-ae73-00144feabdc0.html
Obama in scathing attack on BP chief
"The president – who will make his fourth trip to assess the damage to the gulf coast next week – said if he were in charge of BP, the chief executive “wouldn’t be working for me after any of those statements”.
...Well, let's see, who did we pick to work for us? Tim Geithner? How will history rate OUR picks?
...Never ends... George Jefferson.
@McF
So - What do you think of "Rosie's Boys" (Quant Desk) coming out with a newsletter saying:
"Go to Cash - Now"
BMO CAPITAL
@PE
Pots & Kettles
@McF
Wait...
Here's my favorite part of that newsletter...:-)
Our call is to go to cash, or cash-like instruments to the maximum of your mandate. Consider this our third and final warning/escalation.
Hear that?
"3rd & Final Warning"
This from CR tonight:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,697680-2,00.html
"Bonds worth about €3 billion are now being purchased on every trading day, with €2 billion of the bonds coming from Athens. At the moment, there is no improvement of the situation in sight. "The ECB and the national central banks operating on its behalf are currently the only buyers to speak of," says one market insider.
This policy effectively makes the ECB a so-called "bad bank" (a bank that buys up toxic assets as a means of helping out other institutions), all protestations of its president to the contrary. The pile of junk bonds on the ECB's balance sheet continues to grow. The fact that the ECB is keeping prices artificially high is downright encouraging banks to unload their risky assets onto the central bank.
Thorstein Polleit, the chief economist of Barclays Capital Deutschland, puts it this way: "The ECB is creating excess supply by buying at overinflated prices." In other words, many creditors are more inclined to sell their risky assets to the central bank under these terms. "It's a free lunch," says a top Frankfurt banker. "Anyone who doesn't take advantage of this opportunity to get rid of his securities now only has himself to blame."
@PE
Anybody in America who is behind in their house payments or has credit card debts should just call up their bank and sell the loan to JCT...
Problem solved...
PE in TN...
I dig it.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/08/news/economy/states_medicaid/index.htm
Medicaid: States' $24 billion black hole
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Governors and state lawmakers are anxiously waiting to see whether Congress will send them another $24 billion to help cover their ever-expanding Medicaid rolls.
Only a few months ago, the money seemed like such a sure thing that about 30 governors included it in their fiscal 2011 budgets, which start on July 1. This assumption spared them from cutting even deeper into social services, education and public payrolls.
con't
With only weeks to go before their fiscal years start, states are talking about slashing services for children, the poor and the sick. Schools would receive less state aid, parks would close and state workers would lose their jobs.
"If the money doesn't come through, then most states will do even more budget cuts," said Michael Leachman, senior policy analyst at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning think tank in Washington D.C.
@Amen
Well by all means we can't have that...
Send 'EM the cash for crying out loud! There are people out there who NEED the new iPAD dammit!
CV
All I know is that food stamps are up 23.7% Y-o-Y/ 1.49% M-o-M. And it's still increasing.
Tough one. Ray-Ray 0-13? Yikes. A cruel game sometimes. Games 4 and 5 must wins now.
The officiating both ways continues to be atrocious. I honestly think they just guess half the time.
Aesthetically a very ugly game but great intensity and effort.
@Amen
Those food stamp subsidies are what allows someone to afford their iPhone bill (with the unlimited texting option), and a new pair of Pumas...
Post a Comment