Morning Audibles 5.26.10 - Let's "Dance this Mess Around"

I know I'm TOTALLY being a TURKEY here... But I'm going to WIMP out on this mornings post with a music video and some SONG LYRICS... (Note: I might do this on occasion in the future -as well - as the situation dictates)...


Trust me... It's NOT a way of "copping out"... I acknowledge, IT COULD BE CONSIDERED as such... But let's just describe it (today)... IN PARLANCE... as a "slow news day"... (or expectation thereof)...


Believe it or not, what CV ADORES is "pop culture"... POP CULTURE is MORE than "Capital Markets"... We've all discovered that CAPITAL MARKETS are capable of being hijacked from time to time by PRINCETON & HARVARD "NERD-O-FILES"... 


POP CULTURE endures a more scrutinizing jury cast (not the simple DUPES who vote in national elections and THINK it's the same as voting for an "American Idol" winner, or voting someone OFF THE ISLAND)...


Irrespective...& without further ado... We passed a certain MILESTONE yesterday in equities (a potential "correction" bottom - or "Slope of Hope" bottom as the case may prove to be)... 


Notwithstanding... (CV's FAVORITE word in the English language), after such an affair, "clean-up" crews are inevitably left to deal with the aftermath... 


I've gotta admit... I'm not the DISHWASHER type (although that WAS, actually, CV's first "paycheck" job - back in the day)... But I've moved UP in the kitchen hierarchy... I'm more the CHEF type now (to be more specific - a STEAK CHEF armed with a meat cleaver ready to challenge ANY client who desires to DEBATE the degree of "rareness" I prepared their dinner)...


So where does that leave this thread?... Well - Unless the two "Korea's" go to war in the next 8 TRADING DAYS, or the Euro detonates, or Obama tells everyone he's "gay"... Over the coming MEMORIAL DAY weekend in the USA (and, on the eve of the World Cup Soccer)... I'm prepared to cede these next 8 days to the GODS of TRADING...


GODS... Do what you will... Enjoy yourselves in the process (we ALL should)... Even more SIMPLY stated... DANCE THIS MESS AROUND!... (Roll it over in your minds)... After 8 days I'll be saying... "It's time to do 'em RIGHT"... "I'm just ASKING"...









Remember when you held my hand
Remember when you were my man
Walk talk in the name of love
Before you break my heart
Think it over, think it over
Roll it over in your mind
Why don't you dance with me
I'm not no Limburger
Just a limburger

Dance this mess around
Dance this mess around, 'round, 'round

Everybody goes to parties
They dance this mess around
They do the Shu-ga-loo
Do the Shy Tuna
Do the Camel Walk
Do the Hip-o-crit

Ah-Hippy Hippy forward Hippy Hippy
Hippy Shake, Hippy Shake

Oh-it's time to do 'em right
Hey now, don't that make you feel a whole lot better?
Huh?
I say, don't that make you feel a whole lot better

What you say?
I'm just askin'

Shake-Bake-Shake-Bake

Everybody goes to parties
They dance this mess around
They do all 16 dances
Do the Coo-ca-choo
Do the Aqua-velva
Do the Dirty Dog
Do the Escalator

Ah-Hippy Hippy forward Hippy Hippy
Hippy Shake, Hippy Shake

It's time to do 'em right
Hey! Fred, now don't that make you feel a whole lot better now?
Huh?

Say, don't that make you feel a whole lot better?

What you say?
I'm just askin'

Yeah, yeah, yeah...
Stop!
Dance on over
Yeah, yeah

Dance, dance, dance this mess around
Dance this mess around

Shake, shake-a-bake shake
Shake, shake, shake, shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
Dance this mess around
Yeah, yeah, yeah........




188 comments:

Nic said...

Hello CV
Cool tune! I'm not around today but wish you all a good one. I would not be surprised to see an inside bar today and then a rally into the holiday weekend.

mcHAPPY said...

Albeit unlikely we could still head down hard anytime between now and 1088-1090. I'll be selling in to any weakness today to unload TZA - unles we break hard at some point.

bob said...

You really are a poet CV, and an excellent host.

Cheers.

bob said...

Retail Investors Seek Shelter in Cash, Shunning Buffett Advice

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601014&sid=aBAIZZvVBqT4

Some good AAII numbers in there. Why does the weekly data come from a wednesday? Anyone?

"First Net Withdrawals

Investors pulled an estimated $14 billion from U.S. stock and bond mutual funds in the week ended May 12, the first net withdrawals since March 2009, according to the Investment Company Institute, a trade group in Washington. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has declined 5.2 percent this year and has gained 59 percent since the market low in March 2009. "

CV said...

@bob

"Investors pulled an estimated $14 billion from U.S. stock and bond mutual funds in the week ended May 12"

Brian will have everyone over at the barbecue this weekend trying to convince them of the ERROR of their ways...

He'll talk about the 83% run-up from March '09...

And the moonshot off 1040 yesterday... "Correction over" folks "buy stocks"...

He'll conveniently fail to mention that the market is at 1998 levels (and that gas and food inflation are eating away his savings)...

Anonymous said...

Yesterday, Marketwatch.com covered their ass both sides. In the morning, Paul B. Farrell," A Warning: Crash is dead ahead. Sell. Get liquid now". Then in the afternoon, Nick Godt,"End of correction may be near".

WTF?

mcHAPPY said...

I learned how to do pre-market trades today. Sold all my TZA for a loss at close to yesterdays gains.

Unless we break 1090.16 being in third of a third is still on the table - although it seems remote given the amount of gaps overhead, all the other fine insight given here, and the lack of selling pressure yesterday.

While some bulls may look at this as a positive in reality it makes things look much dire/bearish in the intermediate term with wave i being 1173-1040 for 133 points and a wave iii being anywhere from 215 (1.618) to 348 (2.618). If we retrace .618 (around 1120) we could be looking at bottom for wave 3 around 905-772.

Anonymous said...

@CV, I am surprised you havn't got a call from some hedgie yet.

You'r smart A$$.

BR's looking for clients - min 500k. Touting his call to go in cash before the crash. Saw that thread at his site yesterday.

bob said...

He doesn't have to "convince" them of that, they already "know". I've been acosted by more and more inflationistas over the past two weeks.

But, retail prices are actually about where they were two years ago. Their heads almost blow up. They forgot they fell last year.

Try explaining that down 10% one year and up 11% the next puts you back to less than even and they call you a witch.

bob said...

I read your comment too quickly. Gas and food inflation still aren't at the fed's "target" of 2%, and going forward it seems the $ is the last on the devaluation train.

Some parts of the country where they are more heavily dependent on gas for food and most other good (southwest) are getting it, but the rest are, by my quick and dirty math, doing about the same, if they are still employed.

karen said...

Morning! Entertaining post, CV, as always. I awoke to a birdie in the house this morning and I could hardly get the darling out! He was so confused and left a lot of droppings on my chair back, too. Quick note that tomorrow is the full moon.

call me ahab said...

good thread CV-

pop culture is cool- for instance- my avatar is total pop culture-

attending to a few closings of some "trouble" deals this week- so been pretty busy- in fact gotta roll out as I write-

all have a good day

karen said...

Toll Brothers Inc.'s (TOL) fiscal second-quarter loss narrowed, and the luxury homebuilder said it believes a recovery in the housing market is underway.

"It appears our business has finally emerged from the tunnel and into a bit of daylight," said Founder and Chief Executive Robert I. Toll. "We believe many markets are turning the corner, and housing in general is beginning its recovery."

However, he cautioned that with high unemployment and volatility in the financial markets, "we don't expect housing to roar back right away."

CV said...

@bob

Everything is so convoluted...

Here's something to think about... The whole "global warming" thing has been COOKED UP to slowly feed the idea/need for a carbon tax...

So great - when we finally get a CARBON TAX, the ones 'collecting' the tax will get RICHER if we burn more, right?

Hell, I expect to see commercials telling people to "turn the lights on"!

Kind of like pharmaceuticals... "You can't live without this drug"! Ask your doctor!

WARNING: May cause sudden violent convulsive torturous death (but it'll cure your snivels)....

bob said...

CV, My local electric utility is arguing for a rate increase because people are using less electricity. They are only the carriers remember(deregulation), they are getting less of a cut.

I still haven't seen anywhere in the local or national press about how said utility, based in the UK, lost a ton forward hedging their revenue. GBP down, they got killed. Rate payers pick up the tab.

Leftback said...

Ts are selling off this morning ahead of the 5y and 7y auctions today and tomorrow, as predicted, but if we are back in bear market action then this will be merely a buying opportunity, as Ts are now in Buy The Dips mode, whereas equities are in Sell the Rips mode.

Please bear in mind that a big retracement up to SPX 1150 is possible over a couple of weeks, although the continued weakness of EURJPY suggests not too much participation by leveraged players, which in turn suggests that HFs have "switched sides" to the bear camp. Will be watching credit spreads and LIBOR closely.

karen said...

i guess it is going to be a quiet morning here.. that's okay cuz i'm very out of sorts myself! looking to buy some srs, i think..

Leftback said...

This is sounding like Bear and Lehman:

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA has been unable to renew about $1 billion of short-term funding, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people with knowledge of the matter.

BBVA hasn’t been able to renew the funding in the U.S. commercial paper market this month, according to the Journal.

CV said...

@karen

I'm a little bummed that the "stars" didn't align properly on C

I was talking last week about picking some up for a trade at 3.50 (thinking it could whiplash back to around the 4.30 level after the wave completed)...

It just traded too kooky (in that it hit 3.53 last week - but I wasn't planning on "jumping" until Tuesday)... There was a 3.56 print yesterday... But bot those lows were a few cents off where I wanted to be...

That's such a great stock to play with because since it's cheap you can buy a ton of shares and sell "covered calls" on it all day long...

I kno DL is going to jump on me here and say you can still "sell calls" anyway...

But CV only likes doing COVERED... Worst that can happen is they get called away...

CV said...

BTW -

I still think C makes it back to 4.30 - ish (probably beyond)...

CV said...

That would have been a nice 30% (from 3.50)

Anonymous said...

@ Ben, Cv, we talked about just few days ago - war between China/India coming over fresh water within a decade or earlier.

"China, India water shortage means Coca-Cola joins Intel in fight". www.bloomberg.com

"Wars may start over the scarcity of water...Li Haifing..Beijing Enterprises Water Group Ltd."

CV said...

I'm guessing we'll get to around 1094 here this morning...

Then the activity ought to die down...

AmenRa said...

Odd the gap up this morning wasn't confirmed by the NYSE TICK which opened at -2.00. Normally it should hit 500 or higher to confirm the gap up. Trin is below 1 and inching higher. So the bulls are still in the pen but the gate is open.

CV said...

@Anon

I know this sounds far fetched... But I always imagined (in a pinch), they could just send SUPERMAX tankers down to Antarctica and pick up all the fresh water anyone would need (in ice cube form)...

karen said...

Oh, well, on C... it still looks BAD to me so you may get another shot at 3.50! Ha! and by then you won't want it, I bet..

CV said...

@Amen

That's what I like about the way the tape is playing out...

It's perfectly saying "All these moves are TEXTBOOK technical"...

CV said...

@karen

Oh most definitely...

Next time it hits 3.50, I doubt I'll be wanting it...

karen said...

my vxx order only filled 115 shares.. bummer! and srs is driving me crazy.. i might have to raise my limit by a dime..

Anonymous said...

@CV 9:44. Or bring all those people to Antatica or BETTER YET TO SO CAL,in Karen's back yard.

karen said...

There is no water in so cal, either..

New Oil Forecasts Looking Much Lower

I-Man said...

Watching 1090 for resistance first half of the session, if its broken, then 1106-1108.

Agree with Andy from last night, its a tough spot for me to be short.

Rather just sit it out and wait for the 1126.

Aww, who am I kidding? You know I'd be inclined to ride the wave up there also...

If only in the intraday...

karen said...

got my srs.. hope it's not one of those be-careful-what-you-wish-for trades.. 28.70..

AmenRa said...

Karen

I was going to say don't raise. The algos were enticing you with whispers of sweet nothings.

AmenRa said...

from ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-demand-dollars-spikes-€54-billion-wake-failed-german-auction-spanish-bank-cp-proble

European Demand For Dollars Spikes To €5.4 Billion In Wake Of Failed German Auction, Spanish Bank CP Problems
Earlier today, Germany conducted a €7 billion Bobl auction, which however filled out the entire order book at a sub 1x Bid To Cover with just €6.12 billion in bids submitted, a €0.9 billion shortfall. In other words, this was a failed auction, with the government having to "retain" €1.555 billion in order to make the BTC seem an acceptable 1:1. Combining this negative news with the disclosure that BBVA may be suffering a commercial paper liquidity crunch, as reported earlier, has resulted in a material spike in demand in today's ECB's 7-Day Dollar auction, which came in at 5.4 billion, compared to 0 a week earlier. Expect the Fed's FX swap lines to increase by a comparable amount when the Fed's updated H.4.1 data is released this Thursday. The euro continues to slide on the negative news, although stocks both in Europe and in the US, continue trading higher as momentum programs once again take control.


**Failed auction happened sooner than I even expected.

Leftback said...

504K New Homes. That's really going to help the situation a lot....!

This print probably represents the high water mark for the homebuilders in the raging housing boom of 2010.... the double dip is up next.

BTW, who were those guys the Czech Republic beat easily last night and what have they done with the real USA soccer team?

No equity trades here. Just watching.

AmenRa said...

and another ZH:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spains-bbva-unable-renew-1-billion-commercial-paper-funding


Spain's BBVA Unable To Renew $1 Billion In Commercial Paper Funding

More troubles for both Spain and the Commercial Paper market. Spanish top bank BBVA is said to have be unable to renew a $1 billion commercial paper line, according to the WSJ, which touches on the topic we discussed yesterday first about complications developing in the top-tier ECP market. BBVA still has substantial european-based funding and deposits, and another $9 billion in CP, which will likely also soon be pulled. This will certainly put further pressure on CP spreads, as the European liquidity crisis is alive and well. The news has impacted both the EURUSD and the price of European financial firms, which have sagged since this news has come out.


***it just keeps getting better [snark]

mcHAPPY said...

Oh yes... forgot to mention the numbers above 905-772 would be only the end of wave 3. I have a feeling we will come close to March '09 lows or a break at which point a viscious rally will ensue with the talk of double dips/don't worry and new highs to follow. Of course this will only be the opening act for intermediate 3 of P3.

bob said...

LB

I wonder how many people were buying "calls" on houses before the tax credit expired? Deposit, sure, sign the contract, sure. Pay for the house when push comes to shove, nah, don't want it.

bob said...

LB

Good to see you again.

Leftback said...

One quick thing about housing: there are rural markets in the US that never bubbled and those are likely the source of some of the new home sales. Of course some of the new home sales are also condos and spec homes that the builders finally managed to unload during The Recovery.

Which is now almost over, btw. LB's guess is that Q2 GDP will be 1.5% and Q3 GDP will be more or less flat, with the Double Dip becoming visible in Q4. This is absent Son of Stimulus and QE2, of course. The Treasury market is in the process of pricing this in.

Leftback said...

Textbook technical counter-trend rally in progress.... 1090 ahead.
2-3 days of this? SPX 1110 Thursday?

karen said...

quick, check the spx 30 min candle.. let's see if there is follow thru for fun..

I-Man said...

Ha, thats not our real team Left...

I bet you wish it were, tho.

Yall are going to have "Altidore" tracks all over your backfield.

I-Man said...

I'm watching the following shortterm support levels on SPX:

1086
1082
1075 (gap support... probably alot of daytrader stops at that level this morning)

1068

karen said...

just watched Cashin at TBP.. his number is 1092..

CV said...

I'm not sure how much 'fret' the market is in, but 1099 was the low CLOSE after the "flash crash"...

We haven't traded above that number since the market melted down last Thursday...

It would seem to me that at this point algos might be keen to try and regain that (as a starting point)...

You know... The whole "slope of hope" thing...

CV said...

I'm more inclined to stick with the basic FIBOS (so 1094/5 is where I'm looking)...

karen said...

Tomorrow is GDP and jobless claims..

I-Man said...

I and I get the feeling that 1090 is about to get busted...

Ramp job in progress...

BinT said...

I did find two guys who understand a lot about our crisis. The video is short, but to the point.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/05/20/2905304.htm

karen said...

I-Man, look at JNK on 30 min chart.. that was what i thot the spx would do.. i'll check spy next.

I-Man said...

K,

I'm afraid JNK is going to get bid hard at 37.40...

If that number breaks decisively, I'm with you.

(I'm watching gap support from Monday, and the trendline off the low on the 10min)

karen said...

37.40 is 20 ema on 15 min chart.. (10 ema on 30 min).. holding tight for now..

karen said...

crude and jnk say we are going lower..

I-Man said...

TLT does as well...

I-Man said...

74.60 looking pretty key on the AUD/JPY...

Watching that level for support here.

I-Man said...

JNK trap?

"They" arent done playing games just yet... apparently.

I-Man said...

Here come the SPY bandits...

I-Man said...

Ra, you know what level they're battling over here in the SPY?

108.57

CV said...

@I-Man

You mean they're not battling it out for Wangers "magic number" anymore?

I-Man said...

Wanger's math was dubious...

karen said...

I-Man, you really aren't alone here.. i was going to leave for a bit and do some odd jobs.. but watched a little video and just caught the 1078! I really do need to fix my mailbox, however..

I-Man said...

Call me punk, but I've got that Bear Trappy feeling...

I-Man said...

Funny K, I just installed a new locking mailbox at my place yesterday afternoon.

Babylon tweakers stealing mail again. Bumbaclot bitches.

CV said...

@karen

here's an ODD JOB...

http://thenationalevil.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/oddjob-goldfinger.jpg

CV said...

I'll show you guys in a minute what I'm looking for...(with a chart)

"The conclusion of A"...

mcHAPPY said...

I am pretty confused about everything and anything shorter term i.e. a couple of days. Good time to be out I guess. Here are my thoughts:

1) 1220-1040 happened pretty quick given how long it took to get up that high. I was thinking we should be in for a hard bounce but it is not proving to be the case.

2) There is an obvious gap above. At minimum I would expect 1115 to be tagged.

3) We have not actually retraced .382 yet which would be needed for a wave 2. Minimum needed, assuming 1173.57 is start of minor 3 and 1040.78 is the end of minute 1, would be 1091.505.

These are just some of the thoughts racing through my mind.

DL said...

I'm sticking with my view that if you short at the 1090 level, you won't have to wait long to cover at a profit.

(I'm also sticking with my view that if I get a chance to go long at the 1040 level, I'm going to take it).

Leftback said...

1090 level tagged and rejected first time. Now we will see if we are in a declining wedge... or do we run up to 1110-1115 later this week?

DL said...

I have no problem believing that we get to 1110 next week.

I'm inclined to think that it won't happen this week.

mcHAPPY said...

Sorry - scratch 1) above. Again thoughts racing through my mind. Should have been 1173-1040. But even my thinking there is flawed.

I know one thing - when 1091.5 is hit I would hate to be long ANYTHING.

CV said...

NEW CHART IN THREAD

This chart is a possibility...

We stretch this wave out to maybe 1099 (in a rush at the end of the day)...

That concludes WAVE A (from 1040)... B (tomorrow) takes us back to the 1070's...

Friday we do the late day boogaloo and start running it back up again (in a C)...

Happy Memorial Day Weekend... Tuesday - MOMOS come in and take it up to where we eventually reach near 1120 (and fill some gaps in the process)...

The we squiggle around for a week (frustrating the THETA on the June contracts), and about a week before Opex Friday all hell breaks loose...

That's CV's VIEW

DL said...

CV @ 12:41

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see a big runup on Tuesday... ESPECIALLY if we manage to retest 1040 this week.

CV said...

I doubt we retest 1040 this week...

Somewhere in the 1070s would be my guess... Just enough to cover todays GAP...

Ben22 said...

Whats up all.....busy today, looks like what was mapped out last night, the start of a countertrend rally. Even the targets have remained in tact.

Good luck with everyone's trades.

mcHAPPY said...

CV

Nice chart work. Wondering about your thoughts regarding the gap around 1115. Is it covered on this retracement or after the end of intermediate 1 of P3? i.e. sometime this summer/very early fall.

Ben22 said...

and the A wave could have already completed today....

Leftback said...

Selling tomorrow is possible, especially after the 7y auction, and some rotation into Ts ahead of the three day weekend.

I like the TUESDAY MOMO idea as well for next week. ADP on Wednesday 2nd, whatever that one means.Then we wiggle a bit ahead of the jobs number on Friday 4th. Lately the selling has been on Thursdays, so they will be selling ahead of the news.

CV said...

@McHappy

The 1115 gap gets closed on this go around IMO... (I'd say in the June 14th time period)...Or, it could happen on June 7th... If it hits EARLIER, I'd be prepared for an entire week of SIDEWAYS on the charts...(or-"chop" that keeps covering the same territory)...

DL said...

Yes, absolutely we get to the 1115 level by June 14th.

I-Man said...

CV,

Would you please repost the league info if you get a moment?

I cant remember what day that was...

Leftback said...

5y auction was weak. Look for a stronger performance of 7y tomorrow.

karen said...

GS going down.. barely green now. thanks for chart, CV..

I-Man said...

Should be able to clear 1090 this time...

DL said...

The chart of XLU is not all that inspiring for those who are trying to be bullish over the next several weeks. First, it’s been in a decline since December 14, and second, it has yet to take out its “flash-crash” low.

DL said...

I-Man @ 1:40

I hope not.

I-Man said...

I'm with you DL, failure at 1090 will say a lot more to me about the tape then success at 1090.

If it clears 1090, I'm comfortable that we'll top out again fairly soon.

I-Man said...

They're going to ramp it into the close...

Target 1100.

Got to have the sheep thinking its safe to buy again before the liquidation continues...

I-Man said...

I dont even want to know how many buystops are set right above 1090...

Leftback said...

They're going to ramp it into the close...

Otherwise no barbecue at Brian's. I need a nap.

I-Man said...

I miss Brain... hasnt posted in awhile.

Come to think of it, havent heard from Tawny either...

Or Giles Straightarrow...

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Trin has been above 1 for most of the day. If it doesn't push lower soon it may ramp into the close. A downward sloping ramp.

I-Man said...

Only thing we're missing at this point is a little afternoon CB "intervention" in the fx...

EURUSD anyone?

Ben22 said...

Andy put up a chart of Ford many months ago and I've been keeping an eye on it ever since....that might be worth a harder look at the chart for anyone looking to trade some individual names...

I-Man said...

These fuckers are so predictable...

Anyone just catch that move on the 1min EURUSD?

I-Man said...

Like cornered rats, they are.

DL said...

I willing to bet a roasted rooster that we don't get above 1095 today.

I-Man said...

I'll take you on that bet, just for fun.

I-Man said...

Strictly on the basis that a cornered rat can be a worthy adversary...

DL said...

I-Man,

Whose rooster are we going to roast, BTW...?

I can't think of anyone off hand.

I-Man said...

I was hoping you knew where to get one, and would hook me up with their contact info...

I-Man said...

I might need that info pretty soon here...
LOL.

CV said...

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner says...

"It's about time the ROOSTERS got barbecued"

Ben22 said...

some new potential social mood stuff from The Socionomics Institute:

Do you think the current obesity epidemic is directly related to social mood and wave counts?

Responder: The Socionomics Institute Date: 5/25/2010
We have done preliminary research on this topic which suggests a possible relationship between obesity and social mood. As a result of this question, I just found a cool document that offers great potential for a study; there is a lot of material. Throughout history, advanced civilizations have left obesity figures in the historical record. Egypt had obesity. Hippocrates was concerned with it. At first glance, it appears that widespread obesity is more likely in major fifth waves. For example, there was an important paper on obesity published soon after the South Sea bubble. We plan to continue our research, stay tuned. -- Alan Hall, The Socionomics Institute.

I-Man said...

AUDJPY and EURUSD over the past few minutes are looking very "liquidation-y"...

We might be getting some nasty credit related news overnight...

P3'ers will cheer.

CV said...

In any case, make sure you do the BBQ right...

http://www.motivatedphotos.com/?id=4881

I-Man said...

Word at FX Live is that China is getting a little nervous about their euro bonds...

Ruh-roh...

karen said...

Goldman Sachs $1.25B 10-Year Senior Notes Yield 6.034%
2:35 PM ET 5/26/10 | Dow Jones

NEW YORK--Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) priced $1.25 billion of senior notes in a self-led deal on Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the deal.

CV said...

@I-Man

PERFECT... We still RAMP into the close, finish at 1099... The OPEN tomorrow morning at 1069...

The wizard does something magic & probably illegal and we spend the rest of Thursday & Friday covering the GAP...

Then MOMO comes in and saves the day next Tuesday after Brian tells him "stocks look cheap here" over the weekend...

Piece of cake...

karen said...

CV, I shouldn't have looked! I didn't need to see that : (

karen said...

I'm with DL and AR, the only ramping we do into the close is down.

I-Man said...

What, you against roasting roosters Karen?

72bat said...

karen -
you were asking yesterday...
as now reported by the times picayune, the story seems a little changed (180 deg reversal)... rather than schlumberger leaving of their own accord on their own helo after bp co-man refused to top kill, schlumberger is reported to say that bp sent them away on a regularly scheduled helo:
Costly, time-consuming test of cement linings in Deepwater Horizon rig was omitted, spokesman says"BP hired a top oilfield service company to test the strength of cement linings on the Deepwater Horizon's well, but sent the firm's workers home 11 hours before the rig exploded April 20 without performing a final check that a top cementing company executive called "the only test that can really determine the actual effectiveness" of the well's seal.
"A spokesman for the testing firm, Schlumberger, said BP had a Schlumberger team and equipment for sending acoustic testing lines down the well "on standby" from April 18 to April 20. But BP never asked the Schlumberger crew to perform the acoustic test and sent its members back to Louisiana on a regularly scheduled helicopter flight at 11 a.m., Schlumberger spokesman Stephen T. Harris said."

I-Man said...

FX says RISK OFF...

When EUR/CHF looks like this, it isnt good news for the euro banks.

Something is going down this afternoon across the pond we dont know about yet.

I-Man said...

Nic... we need you.

Someone page her, quick.

karen said...

bat.. thanks for posting that follow-up.. i was really curious about it..

BinT said...

The European markets ended in a downdraft, and it looks like we do the same...

I-Man said...

Agree Bruce, MIGRATION CANCELED.

Mannwich said...

The big fade here?

CV said...

There was a failed auction in Germany today I believe...

BinT said...

The Greeks want to renegotiate their deal?

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-news/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=10508770

ATHENS, May 26 (Reuters) - Greece is trying to renegotiate the terms of a drastic pension reform required under the terms of an economic rescue deal agreed this month with the EU and the IMF, senior government officials said.
In the first sign of glitches over the 3-year bailout plan, officials said they wanted the EU and IMF to agree full pensions should be payable after 37 years of contributions instead of 40, as set out in the deal, and allow the reform to be implemented later than foreseen.
"The (EU/IMF) memorandum will be implemented but I want to have the option to negotiate to the end," Labour Minister Andreas Loverdos said in a television interview. "I'm fighting for this, I'm not saying I will win."
Greece needs to comply with the memorandum to receive quarterly aid instalments from its international backers, and faces a tough battle if it insists on re-negotiating conditions it must meet under the 110 billion euro ($135.1 billion) deal.
Pension reform is a crucial performance benchmark for the debt-choked country under the EU/IMF plan, and any problems over this could raise doubts about the government's resolve to carry out the harsh austerity programme.
Perceptions that the Greek pension system was much more generous than their own helped fuel widespread opposition among Germans to footing the bill for Greece's rescue, in which Berlin will pay the biggest national share. The German retirement age is being raised to 67, while Greek men currently retire at 65 and women at 60.
Centre-left daily To Vima said Loverdos was "bluffing" and would not be able to renegotiate the terms of the deal. "The Labour Minister's statements that he is in negotiations ... over pensions are creating confusion," the paper said.
The European Commission sent Greece a letter to remind it to stick to the terms of the deal regarding the pension reform, a spokesman for the EU executive said on Tuesday.

Anonymous said...

Someone is selling the Euro and buying Canadina banks. Where will they hide when it's time sell cdn banks?

I-Man said...

USD and Govies...

I-Man said...

No PHI for you!!!

CV said...

Yeah, where are they going to hide all that 100x leveraged paper that nobody even actually holds?

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.apartofny.com/2010/05/spx-synth-count-update/

apartofny has been pretty accurate with this synth count.

Ben22 said...

guys, be very careful getting too bearish. this is mapping so well right now as an ABC corrective in the middle of wave 3....if we are going down now it could only be the B wave and that C could carry us quite a bit higher.

good luck.

Ben22 said...

Figured DL might enjoy this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Third-Obama-Year-May-Be-the-tsmf-3715307294.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

Lord Blankfiend said...

Wait until after the 7y auction at least, we are going to mess with you until after that is over.

DL said...

Ben22

A lot higher before the Friday close?

karen said...

there are some interesting posts here and a big $spx ew chart:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/

I-Man said...

I smell fear on your breath Blankfiend...

BinT said...

Ben,

I agree with you comment above. In these manipulated markets, it seems to me very hard to make predictions.

I was just wondering...what will happen in Europe IF the Greeks decide to change the terms of the bailout after the initial funds were paid. We all read the headline that no one now in the EU will be allowed to default. It seems to me that there might be what we used to call "flop sweat" in Germany if the Greeks said, Yeah, well we've thought it over, and the inital terms were too tough. We want what CV has when he plays golf, a mulligan....

Ben22 said...

DL,

time is the least reliable aspect of wave analysis, all that I know is the Wave A target identified last night was achieved today, it would be at the bottom of Dan's blue box if you looked at his count I posted here last night, and once hit, we went down, it looks like a B wave so this correction higher isn't over, the C wave would likely carry us to around 1120's and possibly a bit higher. Once that C wave is over....well, we'll all want to be short if that is the right count, the next wave down would have to be at least 133 S&P points.

There are several options strategies that you could use to play this count.

AT mentioned yesterday's candle, and I would agree, near term I wouldnt' want to shrot right now, wait for the C wave....but I would be curious what his count is, yesterday's low made for a very clean five waves down, textbook really.

Mannwich said...

Whoa Nellie.

ben22 said...

test????

BinT said...

Now that's a Swan Dive...

I-Man said...

Looking pretty risk off to I and I...

mcHAPPY said...

That is/was quite the fall.

DL said...

Ben22

"time is the least reliable aspect of wave analysis"

* * * * * *

How about this:

Some day the market will be a lot higher.

(The information is free, and worth every penny).

Ben22 said...

Bruce,

I'm not sure how this all ends up for Europe, I'm that crazy guy that's preparing for a big bounce in the Euro.

But these types of statements:

"We all read the headline that no one now in the EU will be allowed to default."

People that believe that are likely to be surprised...there will be defaults in the coming years, I have very little doubt about that.

I-Man said...

1046? Thats all I can come up with at the moment for a close... and that would be kinda intense.

karen said...

yeah, so my vxx and srs are green : )

BinT said...

Ben, I agree with you again. The rational observer says you can't ban default with pen and ink. When these elected morons were children they probably were more sensible than they seem to be as adults in positions of power. Now they seem to have lost the ability as Kipling said "to see ourselves as others see us"...

Ben22 said...

DL,

ah, typical response.

Aces.

Wave form and price are what matters, if you have a target in mind and you are trading your plan...who really cares how long it takes and waves allow you to place stops where you know you'll be wrong if you want to use stops. This idea that wavers not only need to get the count and price right, but they need the specific date.....its dumb. I'm not sure how you trade but I build positions, I'm not proud enough to think I can pick every top and bottom.

The C wave shouldn't take more than 5 days to two weeks, I can't give you any better than a range.

I-Man said...

Nice work Karen, way to stick to your guns.

Ben22 said...

are people charting VIX at all?

I-Man said...

Those Swiss sure are gluttons for punishment...

Yikes.

karen said...

i could make a case for 1065 holding..

I-Man said...

Just broke the uptrend off yesterdays low on the 10min SPX...

Now serving as resistance at 1072-1073 (rising resistance)

Leftback said...

JNK is off 1% again, spreads are continuing to widen.

Way to go Karen, EURJPY has been red all day, no way to generate a big move without the carry trade. Maybe they will hold it up here hoping for decent numbers tomorrow...?

BinT said...

I can't remember whether this is a day I'm supposed to wear the 10k thingy, or put it back in mothballs. Off, on, off, on...Soooooo confusing!

Leftback said...

2s10s down at 238 bps from the peak at 294 bps.
So much for the bull steepener, Kudlow....

karen said...

Love this comentary!

This is a test, this is only a test of the 1.2177 level
Written by Jamie Coleman
May 26, 2010 at 19:46 GMT
We took one more run at the downside and EUR/USD equaled its low of 1.2177 from yesterday morning in London but help. A bounce in stocks and a bounce in EUR/USD have coincided with one another. Look for EUR/USD to be a sale on rallies as the China/FT story cast a further and more significant pall over the euro.
If you are looking for a sell signal tonight, wait for the official denial from China that it is concerned about its eurozone holding. Sell that rip.,k looking for a further dip..As the old saying goes, never believe it until it is officially denied.

Ben22 said...

anyone done any research on the PHYS?

Anonymous said...

FAT FINGER. Paging F. F.

Leftback said...

Karen, crude up today - even as inventories continue to build !!

Anonymous said...

LB@ 3:50. Saw a crude chart by Gartman today at Moneytalks.net. He's saying crude is oversold.

What's your opinion. Some money coming out of Euro and into crude?

Ben22 said...

AT,

If you happen to be reading this, have you ever seen an LD in a Wave 3.

Leftback said...

Longer term, crude has to go lower, just look at inventories and BUCKY. Once Blankfiend's basement is full, there's nowhere left to store it.

Leftback said...

Rough week in Jamaica... not much chillin' in West Kingstown.

AmenRa said...

SPX bullish thrusting...CONFIRMED

Mannwich said...

Breaking headline at NYTimes.com:

BREAKING NEWS 4:04 PM ET Dow Closes Below 10,000 for the First Time Since Feb. 8

Does Johnny see that and finally pull the plug? Or buy the dip? For peeps here, the Dow means squat, but for the masses, it arguably means something.

karen said...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Department of the Treasury said Wednesday it sold 1.5 billion shares, or 19.5% stake, in Citigroup (C 3.89, +0.01, +0.26%) for about $6.2 billion. The Treasury had received the shares as part of the Capital Purchase Program which was aimed at boosting capital at financial institutions. "Treasury currently owns approximately 6.2 billion shares of Citigroup common stock and expects to continue selling its shares in the market in an orderly fashion," the Treasury said in a statement. It has entered into a second trading plan under which Morgan Stanley will have the discretionary authority to sell an additional 1.5 billion shares under certain parameters by June 30.

CV said...

Bill Muny says...

"Deserving's got nothing to do with it"

Leftback said...

EUR-JPY 109.5650 -1.8280 -1.64%

and that folks, is the story of the day in carry trades.

Leftback said...

TIPS spread widened, tends to move with oil, not surprisingly.

BinT said...

Top Stories
Stocks climb after durable goods, home sales rise- AP
The stock market steadied Wednesday after upbeat economic reports reminded investors that there are reasons to be optimistic about the economy.

...I think the AP writer had a golf date, and wrote his story just a teensy bit early...

DL said...

I managed to make some money today, but am afraid to take a position (long or short) at the moment given that the market is in the middle of the recent range (1042 to 1090).

BinT said...

Karen;

That comes out to 4.13 a share...

Leftback said...

"but am afraid to take a position (long or short) at the moment given that the market is in the middle of the recent range (1042 to 1090)."

Yup. Let's see where we go tomorrow and Friday, LB has to disappear again for a while. Travel bites. Apologies...

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