A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
SPXTakuri day and is also a bullish thrusting. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still history. Midpoint submerged below 10 SMA. The 233 SMA (1080.74) wasn't touched. Still below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. No daily 3LB changes (UFB). Trending down on the daily 3LB. UFB (oh wait I said that already). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back above the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Fear of the truth of how bad it really is. See Spain. Still below the 38.2% retrace and back below 40. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Still trading well above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).
GOLDBullish short day. Back above the 21 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1220.30).
EURUSDTakuri day. Confirmed evening star. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 and passed. Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.
JNKBullish long day (but still closed lower). Still didn't close the gap. Still above the 14.6% retrace but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
XRTBullish long day. Why? Consumer confidence? HAHAHA Midpoint below 10 SMA. Closed above 89 SMA. Rising wedge apex coming soon. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.07).
3 month/Overnite Libor SpreadAll you need to know about what's really going on.
21 comments:
The Bond Report 5.25.10
Risk was sold early, but then HY caught a bid and for the rest of the day outperformed IG and Ts. The 30y yield breached 4% again transiently before retracing. The yield curve was again shallower (2s10s 241 bps), as a lack-luster auction of 2y notes held the short end in check.
Corpies: LQD -0.48%; AGG 0.12%; JNK -0.19%; HYG -0.12%;
Govies: TLT 0.49%; IEI 0.11%; TIP -0.33%
We finally sold some more long bonds today. TLT is close to putting in a double top close to 100, but no hedges here right now. Looked hard at HY for a trade but didn't pull the trigger. The increase in LIBOR is quite sobering for those pondering some falling knife action. Watch the zero coupon sector of the FI universe, if they start buying T bills (Hasn't really happened yet) then it's no time to get long risk.
I just want to know were people buying the dip or TPTB trying to stop armageddon?
I was debating selling TZA back and forth back and forth then the market closed. The profits I made today are going to be gone by the morning. Oh dear. Hopefully this serves as a lesson for anyone else that if you plan your trade, make sure you trade your plan. I've learned this once already, it is a shame having to make the same mistakes twice. It would be nice to mess up for once and have it be profitable! Good night all and good luck tomorrow.
I-Man, great call!
CV:
Teach me something here. This is just my hobby, so if this sounds stupid, ok. Did you close out your position today, after I asked you this morning? If not, why not? And with 100k on the line, does the positive futures for tomorrow bother you.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Lacking brass b...s, I'd probably have sold today.
UK Telegraph:
Double-dip fears over worldwide credit stress
Great calls today I-Man :)
CV may have touched on this last night- but great idea I think- "old school" real outdoor football for the Super Bowl-
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37341389
and great call I-Man- don't even know what it was- but I am all into the enthusiasm from everyone else
@BinT
No... It was a "good" question...
Answer... TOTALLY hedged...
I had already set some levels in my mind... If you read this blog (that's RHETORICAL)... You know that I've been talking since last week about a possible "wave completion" on Day 21 (that was today)...
I's already set the 1042 level (in my mind) of the next FIBO extension (after 1110)... So I waited for that...
But I had the cash... Instead of SELLING and taking profits... I hedged... I BOUGHT dollar for dollar, UPRO, when SPX hit 1042...
So as it stands now... My UPRO position is doing better than the SPXU position...
I'm VERY MUCH on board with "Dan's" wave thesis (which McF referred to earlier)...
Therefore... I expect to wait about 8 more days (while an A-B-C completes)... Perhaps up near the 1120 level...
I'll take a look at the landscape at that moment... I'd expect to be at the front end of a "3" of a "3" at that moment...
So if the market holds no more shenanigans, I'll sell the UPRO there and "double down" on the short side...
In any case... For 8 days now, I'm hedged DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR up and down (basically like being in cash except I'm actually holding positions)...
I'll "lose" a little smidge (because these levered ETF's are vampires)... But 8 days isn't going to kill me...
If my thesis is WRONG (I'll know 9 days from now)... I'll cash out BOTH...
In any case... I profited on the move from 1082 - 1042... That's a fact Jack!
@Bruce
I would have made WAY more money trading E-Minis on the same idea...
But i don't trade e-MINIS...
So that's that...
thanks.
Bruce
I'll be surprised if we don't see the 1050 level again by Friday.
CV
Great call yesterday. I made lot of money today thanks to you. I sold most of it in the afternoon. your thoughts are priceless. great blog.
indeed DL, the pop AH happened on no volume and it's now reversed.
I was wondering if anyone had noticed that.
AmenRa,
Noticed what? The futures. I've been watching them closely. I went short ESM0 at 1072 (the 4 P.M. price). However, I may have to hold on until Thursday.
DL
It looks like they are trying to keep futures from getting out of hand. Usually if ES is only higher by 5 then that will lead to weakness in the cash market.
@anon
Glad to be of service (even if I'm not trying to be)... LOL
For the record... This whole TRADING ENVIRONMENT is "bizarro city"...
I'm just trying to work the MATH...
DAY 21 (from 1220) brought 2 possibilities to me...
- a CONCLUSION
- or a CONTINUATION
At the close, yesterday, we seemed to be CRUMBLING (in fact - if you read the comments all day yesterday - everyone had basically saying "WTF" all day long)...
I'd already pre-set 1042 as a support level (because it was the next FIBO extension from 1110)... So instead of SELLING... I hedged...
"Plan your trade - Trade your Plan" (as Andy T aptly points out)...
I wasn't sure if we wouldn't roll right back over (but I was fairly confident of at least a BOUNCE around 1042)...
Early on... I'd expected as high as 1067 (a 76.8% retrace)... So I waited and waited...
I should have known that the PPT would be in full force (and by the afternoon - it was obvious)... When I saw DOW hit 9950 (late in the day)... I KNEW it was going to close over 10,000...
So now, many BASIC EWI scenarios are in place... I'm ENTIRELY unemotional about it...
FWIW - I'm probably on board with what McF pointed out... "Dan's counts"... An A-B-C move that might take us to 1117-1120 in the next 8 days...
I'll be sitting by waiting for that story to unravel... See how it goes...
Frankly, I'm thinking more about doing some fishing & boating this weekend (but "curious" about some 3lb levels to close this week & month)...
It's all good!
@Amen (11:26)
Interesting perspective... I hadn't folded that in yet...
Frankly - I'm kind of perplexed as to how tomorrow will go...
- On one hand - I have an idea that the TAKURI candle either won't be confirmed (or will be followed by "indecision")...
- OTOH, I can see a quick print in the 1090-1095 level...
- OTOOH, I'm thinking that the CLOSE to this week will show some 3lb damage (which J6P - or I-man's MOMOS) would never pick up on in a million years...
Yoda says...
"STEALTH - will be this collapse in equities..."
Pretty impressive looking daily candle on the sp500 futures....makes it difficult to be short right now.
@Andy
You're going to have to try to find a "picking tops" ICON to go with your "picking bottoms" one... :-)
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