Morning Audibles 5.24.10 -

15 minutes into the close last Friday we had the "flash melt-up" on no volume (actually one of many we've seen over the past year)... Just before that, things had been steadily weakening all afternoon and there was a threat that the SPX would take out its morning low print (which would have made for a very nervous weekend)...




[snark on] But then, by some miracle, traders suddenly, without warning, all became interested in stocks and pushed the DOW up 130 points in 15 minutes on NO VOLUME... [snark off]


Or was it just this trader (whose desk is in the basement of 33 Liberty) that "fat fingered" another one?




As I settle in to my keyboard this morning I note (OMG! Futures are pointing down to, amazingly where the "flash melt up" occurred)...


And so it goes... "Flash Crashes" (under investigation by the SEC), followed by "Flash Melt-ups" 15 minutes before a Friday with markets teetering on a technical breakdown (no "investigation" announcements forthcoming)... 


You know, all the average healthy behavior that happens in a "TYPICAL RECOVERY"... But take heart people, It's not just the "Communist States of America" that this happens, it's happening all over the world.


China’s Stock Market Has Become a Poor Man’s Casino: Andy Xie


Toss a couple of cocks into the middle of the ring and you have yourself a cock-fight to bet on!

"Ah So! I hada my money ona red roo-es-ter" Wina Wina chicken a-dina fo me..."





May 24 (Bloomberg) -- A bartender at my neighborhood pub recently asked me how the Shanghai stock market was performing. I said it was at about 2,600 points. He jumped and said, “No! The Communist Party wouldn’t let that happen.”

He spent the next 10 minutes trying to convince me that the Communist Party would make the market rise to 8,000 in the next three to five years.

“Look, the Hong Kong market is at 20,000,” he said. “Shanghai at 8,000 would be very reasonable.”...(continued)...

So we're about an hour before the open in New York as we speak... Place your bets, place your bets... Which crow do you think is going to fly off the fence first?... We'll try and help you with some 'technical analysis' on that along the way to guide your PRUDENT INVESTOR aptitude)...



Peeps... I think this is where we're heading today... MAX PAIN into close...





230 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 230   Newer›   Newest»
bob said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsFZFHzf2d8

Did Caeser live here?

Anonymous said...

C, Citi group is upgraded by GS -www.marketwatch.com/story/sprint-nextel-citigproup-ibm-in-the-news/

Also, saw somewhere that Citi may do reverse split.

BTW, were you able to buy on Friday?

FWTW, I talking my book!. Long Citi since 2.55.

I am also long you! Great blog, great commenters.

CV said...

@Nic (from other thread)

FWIW - I have a "KISS" strategy on currency exchanges...

MACRO VIEW?

- All fiats will eventually go to zero
- Which one will go to zero first?
- Current bet in on the EURO
- Any 'technical bounce' in the interim, is just that, 'a technical bounce'
- When I say 'go to zero' (on Euro), I mean it will eventually be broken apart
- This will be a headwind for the dollar as it gains momentum (notwithstanding the technical bounces)
- This phenomenon IS NOT 'priced in' to US EQUITIES at the moment.
- That's why there can be, what seem to be, daily DISLOCATIONS or broken down CORRELATIONS.

IOW - we won't starting hearing "Dollar Strength hurting US equities" from the MSM for a few months yet...

The PR machine (along with TWSWB) has put so much effort into touting the "typical recovery" scenario that the markets have to technically CALL THEIR BLUFF before they abandon it...

Then they will look for a SCAPEGOAT (and it will be the dollar)...

At that point (probably near the elections)... QE2 will turn into QE3, and Bernanke will take the next step towards trying to make the dollar win the race to the bottom...

Just my 2 cents...

CV said...

@Anon

I didn't buy C

I think it'll still maker a lower low in this cycle... If I'm wrong, I'm wrong...

This "upgrade" ought to last a day...

At the moment, I'm noticing that FUTURES are down (but banks are up)... The market won't fall apart with financials up...

I'm looking at the 1095-1097 as "technical" levels for the broader SPX, today... If It can't get beyond that barrier, I'm expecting a retest of the LOWS sometime during the week...

That might be when I take a look at C (for a TRADE only)...

It would probably have to be below $3.50 for me to get interested...

Goldman "upgrading" probably means they have shares they want to distribute (that they bought on FRIDAY)... Crooks!

CV said...

Also... all

Rumor had it last week that the GOLD weakness was due to the fact that there was not the "physical" to deliver to honor call options (contracts expire today)...

I might expect a decent week for gold here...(if those rumors are true)...

karen said...

morning! i didn't even bother with the futures last night as i didn't want to be disappointed this morning when the 180 occurs. you are in a funny mood today, CV.. or everyday, really : )

i think we have existing homes sales this morning.. I imagine they will be BTE!

mcHAPPY said...

It appeared as if we had the all-clear for the counts, however, funny things can happen between 4 hours between the open and the start of the open - and they have:

There are 3 options I can see today:

1) We break 1095.09 and after this nothing below really matters. If this happens I will sell my shorts and wait to see what happens next.

2) We open a little down at the close (5-7 points) and rise back up to flirt with 1095.09 again before a major down draft.

3) We go down hard from the open.

I was leaning towards 3, now expecting 2, and preparing for 1.

CV said...

@karen

How can one NOT be in a funny mood with everything that goes on? :-)

Furthermore - I have a "fun" crowd of people I can interact with each day...

I was reading an article over the weekend that was talking about "EXPECT 100 - 200 volatility readings to become commonplace over the next 2 years"...

135 is the all-time high, I believe...

CV said...

@McHappy

(9:17) - That pretty much describes my position as well...

Already - FINANCIALS are strong out of the gate... As such, they may be "circling the wagons" with those...

If they crack (or, as they do)... That's what may be the sign that things are falling apart...

McFearless said...

@Nic,

other thread: I think you are asking if the rise from the March 09 lows can be counted as 5 waves UP?

Just want to make sure I'm reading you right.

@Bertie,

Welcome!

karen said...

A must read NLY.. Invest in Bulldozers

"We would guess that this makes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the largest homeowners in the world, in terms of number of properties."

mcHAPPY said...

STart your engines.

CV said...

@Bertie (adding to McF - 9:26))

..."to the Jungle"

Nic said...

Hi McF
Yes I am asking about the rise from the March 09 lows ...

karen said...

Oh! almost forgot my big anecdotal evidence from yesterday.. Sunday evening: I-5 dead, both directions on 70 mile or so stretch to LAX.

karen said...

my plan for today is to buy some SRS below 29..

call me ahab said...

Prechter is not following GS's lead obviously-

"Big Banks Are the "Riskiest," Prechter Says"- Tech Ticker

mcHAPPY said...

Are you ready for some cold steel?

call me ahab said...

this makes me chuckle- US & China meet and here is this country's message

"The United States suggested Europe's debt crisis would have minimal impact on global growth"

are you kidding me?

AmenRa said...

Euro on the guillotine block...

mcHAPPY said...

@ahab

It is sad when the communist party is the one publicly concerned about the European situation and the democratic/capitalist (hee hee, that is a hoot) is spewing b.s.

mcHAPPY said...

TZA and FAZ have just spiked.

CV said...

@McHappy

You call the USA "democratic/capitalist"?

I beg to differ...

mcHAPPY said...

CV,

"....(hee hee, that is a hoot)...."

I would agree with your begging to differ. I apologize for my poor attempt at sarcasm. :P

McFearless said...

Nic,

I know this is something Andy T agrees with me on: that structure is not a five wave impulse. I think it's important to mention Andy here becuase he counts a little different than me as I use traditional EWave but we draw the same conclusion.

A couple basic things to point out if we tried to label it as an impulsive five:

1. If you plot the charts on any time less than weekly it breaks rules if you count the rise as 5 up.

2. The waves that would be labeled 1 and 3 UP do not subdivide into 5 waves and this is one of the most basic wave rules.

3. The volume and a/d, etc. under wave 3 do not fit the personality of a third wave, the volume was not strong and a/d got weaker the further the rally went, that shouldn't happen. Even the middle of the third wave shows overlapping structures and it doesn't hold the up-trend line from the March bottom.

4. The countertrend waves (2&4) have no alteration, which we should see. Even if you don't count waves, a simple glance at the strucutures of both the larger down moves look the same.

I can't deny it "looks" like 5 up, but a triple zig-zag is supposed to look like 5 up, yet it is a corrective move, using the 4 simple things above allow us to assign a very low probability to this being the start of a new bull market.

That said, it's not impossible, just not likely to be probable.

Anonymous said...

This is titled 'BP Fails Booming School'
It is pretty funny.
She says fuck alot, so be aware.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx8kMXufu3w&feature=related

foghorn

I-Man said...

Looking to see some conclusion at the 1050 level...

Until then, its wait and see far as I concern.

CV said...

@I-Man

Thanks for the charts (yesterday)... Sorry, I didn't get them up in time for yesterday's thread (because I happened to get sleepy early)...

People... I&I has some SPX & DXY 'broader view" charts at...

dreadcapital.blogspot.com

If you want to take a peek...

I-Man said...

No worries homeboy...

I had a feeling you were either super busy, or had crashed for the night.

Funky open.

Nic said...

Thanks McF that makes much more sense to me :)

McFearless said...

damn, Nic,

I just took forever to respond to your question on sentiment but blogger ate it or something. maybe I could send you an e-mail or something.

CV said...

@I-Man

FWIW - I'm kind of watching this 1077 level...

I think if it holds there, there's a chance that for the entire day, the market gets slowly bid up to the 1095-1097 levels...

Just a hunch...

CV said...

@I-Man

Who won in LAX?

I-Man said...

Hi Nic, are you back in the saddle?

mcHAPPY said...

Anyone think the home sales will be much WTE?

AmenRa said...

Without looking at the economic calendar the moves on the 1-min chart suggest that existing home sales were not BTE.

I-Man said...

UVA in a nail biter... Stony Brook played a great game, but in the end, it was a major emotional victory for the Cavs given all the off field shit they've had to deal with late in the season...

Stony Brook lucked out in having that quarterfinal game on their homefield, but couldnt pull it out in the end...

NCAA Mens Lax Final Four is this weekend:

Notre Dame vs Cornell
UVA vs Duke

(Duke is the only team to have beaten UVA this year, and ND is the only team to have beaten the ACC out of conference this year, they beat Duke, and handed the Terps their second round loss in the tourney.)

I'm sure thats more lax analysis than anyone cares to know... but we all got our things.

BinT said...

Had an interesting experience this morning with Schwab. Bought some CD's early this morning, before the market opened. Done this tons of times. Well, after got to the mine, checked and the order was open. Talked with a bubba in Phoenix, who told me, after checking, that orders after hours weren't always filled as sometimes the supply of whatever instument you purchased wasn't really there. I told him what I thought............

...The order is now filled. !/?......

I-Man said...

Bruce,

Are they filling you from their inventory, or letting you shop around?

McFearless said...

Bruce,

often when you hear that "it doesnt' always get filled" it's best to call and ask someone else the same question to see what answer you get. We have these types of issues with our back office from time to time and more often than not there is work-around if you talk to enough people. We typically have staff call three times before giving up on something like that.

BinT said...

From inventory this weekend, and I was told that that CD had sold out Friday by the bubba in Phoenix. Interesting. Of course you pros know that sometimes that is a little extra inventory overhang we hoi polloi never see, and other things that I can only guess at.

..However, I know they wouldn't want to lose my account...so maybe the griping helped....

BinT said...

Exactly Ben. Exactly. The squeeking wheel gets the grease...

call me ahab said...

mchappy-

existing home sales for April is like looking in the rear view mirror-

13 year low in permits that came out last week- that's advance notice on where housing is headed

gotta roll- all have a good day

BinT said...

I-Man,

Schwab doesn't let you shop around. That would be wonderful...and I've talked with them about it, but they have no plans to manage CD's in this fashion. I think they'd make money after they took the vig off the top (and any retail investor knows they'd have to do that on a CD you "found" for them), but I spent 20mins one day with a fairly high muckedy-muck and so I suspect it won't happen that way. Inventory only.

CV said...

I PUT A NEW CHART INTO THE THREAD ABOVE

Peeps - this is how CV thinks we'll trend today (until that thesis gets BROKEN OUT or BROKEN DOWN)

AmenRa said...

Odd disconnect. Tick keeps hitting higher highs but so does the Trin. They can only stretch the rubberband so much before it breaks.

Nic said...

I-Man
I am out of the saddle for another week but keeping an eye on the markets.

I-Man said...

Good for you...

Probably fits your trading timeline as well now doesnt it?

CV said...

RBS' Bob Janjuah: "THIS IS AN UBER BEAR EARLY WARNING ALERT!"

http://www.businessinsider.com/bob-janjuah-this-is-an-uber-bear-early-warning-alert-2010-5

CV said...

It's getting very close to "BUG BETTING TIME"...

We may "melt up" to 1095 rather quickly...

At that point... PLACE YOUR BETS...

AmenRa said...

BAC, WFC, JPM, BKX, XLF, EURUSD, AUDJPY are all lower. Trin >1.1

and yet the market inches higher. I call BS.

McFearless said...

the charts just look odd today....

McFearless said...

Ra,

yes, something strange is afoot here.

I-Man said...

Classic rising wedge breakdown on the SPX 1min

I-Man said...

I still think we have work to do at 1050... feeling a shakeout there, and thats your tradable bottom.

CV said...

a foot says...

I resent being called "strange"

CV said...

a yard says

"Does that means I'm 3x as strange?"

CV said...

@I-Man

FWIW... If we go down... I don't 1050 will be respected AT ALL...

mcHAPPY said...

From 1055.90 there is a very clear A-B-C. Currently in C but question is where does it end? If we do not break 1095.09 I believe this is the most bearish case scenario as 1055.90 would have been the end to wave 1 of minor 3.

I am starting to think what appears to be the current C is also taking the shape similar to the A.

CV said...

Anybody read this?

"A brand new MAJOR eruption is happening. tune into the SpillCam at BP.com. It's black, all you can see is a cable. It started with yet another GUSH plume/tornado."

http://monkeyfister.blogspot.com/2010/05/major-change-down-below.html

mcHAPPY said...

If we go down hard before a break of 1095.09, I'll be looking for between 1020 and 985 to end wave 3 of minor 3 of intermediate 1.

bob said...

CV,

That really is a cluster. So many different variables, the gas being a solid at that depth and pressure being the first.

AmenRa said...

The only thing that adds to the economy is building permits when it comes to homes. Existing home sales is just a recycling of homes that have been built. Building permits have been decreasing. So existing sales offer nothing IMO. Plus inventory is still increasing and now that the gov handout is over inventory should increase even more.

bob said...

AR,

I've been "house shopping" for a while. Not through RE agents, but through the banks. There are massive amounts of held back inventory that they really want to move, but don't want to list. If you know who and how to ask they let you see the tip of the iceberg.

CV said...

@Amen

I'm waiting for Ken Fisher's take on things... :-)

AmenRa said...

GOOG and C seem to be the vehicles used to support the market today. Trin still hitting new highs. AUDJPY struggling to stay positive.

OT: I'm still p/o that market manipulations ruined my five 1-min candle indicator LMAO.

CV said...

@bob

The "tip of the iceberg" are probably the crappiest properties...

CV said...

@Amen

at 15:40 on Friday (to be precise)

AmenRa said...

CV

Ask him to send it to you in his home study course.


p.s. I'm embarrassed to say that I had that course back in the mid 90's. I quickly learned what didn't work.

bob said...

CV, the crappiest, and highest priced are the ones they tried to move before the tax credit expired. The ones I am shown after a while are generally better, but the best are the hold backs that the banks are sitting on for quick cash when they need it. The worst move into HUD/FRE/FNM hell, they might show up on the market in 5 years.

Anonymous said...

@CV
re: BP
Watch for the language, this lady obviously worked in the 'oil patch'.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx8kMXufu3w&feature=related

foghorn

mcHAPPY said...

LOL:

Depression in U.S. seems 'remote': Summers says (MW)

I thought we were in a recovery?

mcHAPPY said...

I would imagine we get one more push up to end this.

CV: your chart addition may prove correct. This may be one wasted day, however, if it is I relish tomorrow.

CV said...

@foghorn

Great "pillow talk" :-)

CV said...

@McHappy

Tomorrow is DAY 21... (since 1220)

It's DAY 13 from FLASH CRASH...

mcHAPPY said...

CV:

As I read that 11:41 all I heard was "dun, dun, duuuuuuun"

AmenRa said...

Pinning Tick above 700 to get these small pushes higher doesn't seem to be working as well as they hoped.

Anonymous said...

I know ya'll are busy and all, but that video is MUST SEE TV.
Please pass it along,
let's make that thing viral.

foghorn

CV said...

@foghorn

I'll pass it along just for the sake of getting people to talk like that all the time...

:-)

CV said...

I teach a group fitness class tonight...

I can't wait to get in there and say...

"Go***mmit, get down there and do your -effin sit-ups!..."

Anonymous said...

@CV
I detected just a 'hint' of anger in her voice.
Move to Texas, we talk like that ALL the time.
Especially when they can't even run Effing boom the way they were instructed.
And what about the Effing Coast Guard, like she said, they know how to run boom properly, why the Giant Clusterfuck?????

foghorn

karen said...

Fed Says Asset Sales Will Come After Rates Are Raised (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alBk6GOU8Ho8&pos=4

The Federal Reserve doesn’t intend to sell any of its securities, including more than $1.1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, until after it begins raising interest rates, the central bank said in report to Congress.

AmenRa said...

foghorn

Nice vid. At least I now know what proper "booming" should look like.

karen said...

Cashin.. dbl bottom? i'm listening now:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/cashin-on-possible-double-bottom/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29

CV said...

@karen

CV is not on board with that...

CV said...

No positions as of yet...

karen said...

CV @ 12:22, me either : ) and thanks for chart addition..

Anonymous said...

AmenRa
If you liked the vid,
check out this little nugget.

GRAND ISLE, La. --

Jefferson Parish Commandeers BP-Hired Boats


"Jefferson Parish Emergency Management has commandeered all of BP's hired boats on Grand Isle, parish Councilman Chris Roberts confirmed in an e-mail to WDSU on Saturday.
BP has more than 40 boats sitting behind the island, waiting idly as oil rushed into the passes headed toward the Barataria estuaries, Roberts said.
Parish officials took an air tour of the area Saturday afternoon and snapped photos of the boats.
The Jefferson Parish Sheriff's Office will escort the boats to the Bays, where Roberts said they should have been for days."

Here is the link:
http://www.wdsu.com/news/23646158/detail.html
-----------------------------------

foghorn

CV said...

@karen

Which basically says that CV respect's the call (and is VERY CAUTIOUS here)...

But when push comes to shove, I'll take the next BIG MOVE down...

2small2bail said...

@foghorn, x2 Amen's 12:14, Thx

Observation: My free, thx to unused miles, WSJ is mostly useless since pertinent links hit here and the blogosphere in advance, but some ads are still interesting ...

3 separate ads last week had some kind of flashlight, emergency radio, cell phone charger (ha!) combo to sell, one red cross endorsed and one with a Newsmax subscription...

Think they're trying to make a quick buck off blog bears or genuinely trying to prepare the masses ... why WSJ and not during an Idol or Wheel of Fortune commercial?

CV said...

@karen

Here... READ THE FULL BOB JANJUAH (to get your mind right)...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bob-janjuah-uber-bear-early-warning-alertmajor-risk-asset-sell-will-see-sp-800s

McFearless said...

I'm packing it in for the rest of the day and watching. Monday.....blah.

AmenRa said...

Now that the word is out that BP doesn't understand "booming" will the govt step in or will the companies that do booming and training step in? BP is done for.

Nic said...

Just came in from meditating whilst mowing my dandelion patch.
Inside doji day - blah.

AUDJPY is a pretty nice wedge for a breakout tho.

Anonymous said...

http://www.wkrg.com/gulf_oil_spill/spill_cam/

-----------------------------------
This is supposed to be a 'live' feed via BP of the riser.
It is somewhat 'curious' that the date and timestamp are no longer visible.
Whatever

foghorn

I-Man said...

I think there's enough stops built up on the long side now to be able to blow them out nicely...

I-Man said...

test

I-Man said...

Watch that 1082 level

Leftback said...

LB here, just checking in after a week or two on the road. Apparently there were a few people who missed my donkey.

Doing nothing here, really, but expecting some sort of run up to about SPX 1136-1150 once the EURUSD really puts a floor in, which it seems to be on the verge of doing, and crude also makes a run higher. So the usual ERX + TBT combo would be what one would do from here.

Obviously still long bonds, we have dipped LOWER on the 10y than the GS prediction of 3.25%. How's that MS 5.5% call working for ya? So that was the big macro call of the late summer and again in the New Year, when the 10y nibbled at 3.90-4.00%.

LB will be on the road again next week and engaged in projects so posting will be limited. Will try to get back to normal in June. Hmm.. World Cup... ok...maybe July? August?

Nic said...

Hey LB - I missed your ass :)

Leftback said...

I noticed a few nicely rounded bottoms on the site recently (talking charts here obviously), so perhaps time for a change of icon...

CV said...

@LB

Nic missed your ass...

I missed your comments...

Leftback said...

Thanks, C. LB is trying to avoid crowing about his 2009-2010 interest rate and fixed income calls.

McFearless said...

action in options today makes the premiums not so bad now....

CV said...

Good calls... all...

Always nice to be "crowing" rather than "eating crow"

Leftback said...

That 5.5% 10y call by Morgan Stanley must be hurting their FI trading now that it has come home to roost.... not to mention all the hedgies who were short US govies.

CV said...

Hey people...

I set up a WORLD CUP "Fantasy Tournament"

Who wants to sign up?

Leftback said...

Always nice to be "crowing" rather than "eating crow"

Indeed. Curious whether the ladies prefer rooster or donkey...?

Leftback said...

WORLD CUP "Fantasy Tournament"

US 1 North Korea 4 in the final.
That's on Kim Jong Il's Play Station.

BinT said...

LB:

While you were gone, we did miss the site's donkey.


....Er, avatar, that is...

McFearless said...

I'll play C, though, I know nothing about soccer at all.

Yahoo?

I-Man said...

@ Leftback

Respect, bro.

Leftback said...

Thanks Bruce. It was fun to be an ass.
But it was time for CHANGE.

I-Man said...

I wonder if we can take out the stops at 1086, 1082, and 1078 in one 10min candle...

I-Man said...

Weird... just had like ten comments pop up all of a sudden that I hadnt seen a minute ago...

I-Man said...

Damn you blogger.

CV said...

Yup YAHOO...

Follow to YAHOO SPORTS, FANTASY...

And here is the Group ID number & password

Group ID#: 5181
Password: sc2010wc

CV said...

@LB

Not to mention Taleb...

CV said...

I suppose he'll eventually be right...

AmenRa said...

Fugg it. Just added some SPX Puts. Something just isn't right in how the markets are trading today. IMO.

2small2bail said...

Comments seem to disappear and come back randomly.

@C - Count me in for World Cup. I probably know less than Ben, but am happy to occupy the bottom of the standings barring luck like the NCAA tourney.

CV said...

After QE3 gets announced...

Of course, we have a FINANCIAL REFORM Bill in place now, so there will NEVER be any QE3 [snark]

I-Man said...

I'm in for fantasy futbol...

CV said...

@I-Man

it looks to me like the "trendline" (from 1070)...

Is going to end up to a "cockeyed" reverse H&S... When that neckline hits 1095, I'm expecting a rush to print that number, then the selling starts...

Could fail before tho...

I-Man said...

Good luck Ra, I like that trade.

AmenRa said...

from ZH:

4 Spanish Savings Banks To Merge

Italy Banning Cash Transactions Over 5000 Euros

Tick...tick...tick

Leftback said...

With 3-month T bills not really moving this doesn't feel like a real panic yet, but it might be a dress rehearsal for later on this year.

Definitely seems that there is potential for a bounce from here and a squeeze of Euro shorts... you can almost sense the COLD STEEL approaching.

Another monster pile of Treasury paper about to be sold, who thinks the broker-dealers want to take them down at these yields when they could push em up higher by selling some dollars? Not me.

Leftback said...

The note about Italy is very reminiscent of Argentina 2001 when cash simply disappeared suddenly from everyday transactions. Even now the coinage is in short supply.

karen said...

I would like to see VXX in the low 30s.. never did buy SRS.. I am also in the something doesn't feel right camp.. Cock or Jackass, do you even have to ask? Laughing, laughing.

CV said...

@foghorn

Pardon my French...

But F*** Obama (and BP), and all the elite ass Harvard types that think they know more than God in this Administration...

REDNECK FARMERS to the rescue...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5SxX2EntEo

These guys work for CW Roberts, big contractor in Walton County , Florida .

They have just received contract to do the "HAY THING" for all the 26 miles of Walton County, Florida beaches including Sandestin..

They start off shore with tug boats and barges spreading or blowing the hay over the oil.

If this works it will make Janet Neapolitan, or whatever her name is, and the EPA look silly.

Leftback said...

Karen, my.. um... rooster seems too large to display on blogger.... the comb seems to be cut off at present.

.... although it can be viewed in all its glory at Macro Man along with an erudite comment.

Leftback said...

Got to run. Back before the close.

I-Man said...

Here's a little play math I was doing over the weekend:

SPX closed last week right on top of the 55ema on the weekly chart.

The only other time on that chart that I could find where this happened before was the week ending 7/24/09. (I-Man remembers this week well, as it pretty much destroyed my trading account.)

I was just killing time on Sunday and decided to count the weekly candles in between the two closes:

43

43/5 (number of days in trading week) = 8.6


Just found that rather cool and interesting...

BinT said...

CV: Might work for awhile...

http://www.wkrg.com/gulf_oil_spill/spill_cam/

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Isn't that MA's number?

mcHAPPY said...

I'm to the point where I don't give a sh*t anymore... just resolve it one way or another - preferably down.

mcHAPPY said...

We are under 2 hours, come on and sell them algos.

I-Man said...

Yes sir, Ra.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Time for a cycle change? I sure hope so. Time to find the trough.

CV said...

@Amen

I was going to say that "MA's" number

I-Man said...

We should have some clarification here at 1082, McHappy...

If it goes, I'm watching around 1068ish, fwiw.

mcHAPPY said...

@I

I could see it jumping back to retest 1095. It would produce max frustration for everyone and it would fit in with the current look on the charts. I am hoping for a quick five wave up to end this. If it fails there it should be quite violent down and if it busts through, well at least it is over and we can go back to the drawing board.

AmenRa said...

Tick pinned above 700 again. Bulls haven't given up yet. Or is it the algos? Each time bearish momentum picks up there is quick jump in ticks above 700 to slow down the bears. It's actually funny to watch. I still think we're setting up for a sell off into the close. Momo Mondays epitaph has been written.

mcHAPPY said...

The RUT is showing my above conclusion better than SPX.

I-Man said...

Yeah, I didnt have time to go back and check for missed trading days or anything like that in my weekly count, so it could just be hogwash...

Still, the number jumped out at me.

Probably just a coincidence...

;)

McFearless said...

43/5 (number of days in trading week) = 8.6

Is that the Martin Armstrong number for his formula?

CV said...

@Amen

You can bet that if your (2:16) occurs, it will be proceeded by a "meltup" (small - as it might be)...

I-Man said...

Its the 8.6 cycle.

Here's a few links:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/248/measuring-financial-time-the-magic-of-pi


http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

CV said...

It's time to see what Mr. Topstep has to say...

McFearless said...

lol, read the other posts, guess everyone remembers the 8.6.

Interesting

amazing how boring these types of days feel after a little volatility. Snoozefest here.

mcHAPPY said...

FAZ is on a steady uptrend.

I-Man said...

Ramdom ETF trade:

I like this GDXJ (junior gold miners) here for a move back up to 29 or so.

CEF also looking pretty stud, but I like that one better on a weekly close above 15.

I-Man said...

Anyone else think this volume is eerily light?

Anonymous said...

CV
Good ole southern engineering beats book learning every day.
This is so simple it can't be effed up.
KISS at it's finest.

foghorn

Tyler said...

Karen, my.. um... rooster seems too large to display on blogger.... the comb seems to be cut off at present.

.... although it can be viewed in all its glory


Personally, I would assume that glorious is the last thing that comes to Karen's mind when discussing the breath of a man, whose rooster, when fully extended, amounts to a mere 50pixels.

yuck yuck yuck

incidently, that Tyler is not this Tyler

Bruce in Tennessee said...

....I suppose I see how this could be interpreted as unexpected.......

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Drivers-still-arent-rushing-apf-4212739224.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

"Although gasoline prices are dropping ahead of the Memorial Day weekend and the start of the summer driving season, there's no sign motorists are rushing back to the pump to top off their tanks.

Data released Monday by the Federal Highway Administration show the number of miles driven on U.S. roads rose in March compared with February, but still was below March 2009, in the depths of the recession.

There is no sign of anything more than a modest increase in demand for gasoline so far this year. Last week's MasterCard SpendingPulse report showed consumption of gasoline for the first two weeks of May running about 1.3 percent ahead of last year. For the year, consumption has risen about 1 percent"

spoonman said...

I would love a pop to around 1194 so I can short the hell out of this thing. Not because I have tremendous conviction about that level, but because I would have a nice tight stop. Of course, if we run up into the close, I have to worry about gapping up tomorrow, which means I would have to play smaller...

BinT said...

Yeah, leftback, I can barely see your rooster, much less his comb....

As Crocodile Dundee once said," You call That a Comb?"

mcHAPPY said...

If 1055 was the end of 1, it is fitting the action since would be a 2. Relatively speaking this is similar to mid February-mid April as we just grind it out since the pop into the close Friday.

BinT said...

I am thinking a "comb implant" for Lefty....

Cialis...for that special time when you can't find your comb...


....yeah, yeah....I know...

mcHAPPY said...

FAZ continues to rise.
TZA is sporting some 'comb' as well.

Nic said...

ETF superpit hit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93L_uzIqE1Q

AmenRa said...

Gold is higher and the dollar is higher. Some algos need reprogramming to deal with the disconnect.

I-Man said...

I think thats going to be one of the summer's themes Ra, both USD and Gold higher together...

Got to challenge the thinking.

mcHAPPY said...

Did something conclude at 650.21 on the RUT and 1088.91 on the SPX?

mcHAPPY said...

FAZ is up 6%.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Trader are considering gold and the dollar as safe havens until they realize the dollar isn't one.

McFearless said...

imo people are buying gold based more on the inflation/money printing than they are the "safe haven" idea. Safe haven wouldnt' properly explain why people buy GLD.

just my opinion though.

Nic said...

Ha you should read Mich on the Australian housing bubble

ING Insanity Downunder

AmenRa said...

Ben

How many trade GLD with the intent to take delivery? Plus I think the contract states that the depository can offer cash to settle (which is what they're probably doing).

I-Man said...

I wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see physical go through the roof, and all paper funny gold to implode.

Its a CONfidence thing.

AmenRa said...

BAC -2.49%, GS -1.94%, WFC -3.64%, JPM -2.55%, C +3.07%, GE -1.83%, BKX -2.71%, XLF -1.76%.

What's wrong with this picture?

CV said...

@Amen

Paulson & Soros own huge chunks of that... I wonder if they expect delivery some day?

CV said...

@Nic

"Mortgage Partner for Life" - LOL

How about "Slave for Life"?

I-Man said...

http://news.coinupdate.com/united-states-mint-gold-and-silver-bullion-sales-on-furious-pace-0290/

McFearless said...

"How many trade GLD with the intent to take delivery?"

Exactly my point. Traders are acting in an attempt to buy at bottom left and sell at upper right maybe. I've not seen a single pundit that is promoting gold not base their entire thesis on "printing". Not one. The vast majority also state it's b/c of inflation, but I think we put that to rest here last week. Take Sinclair, as he was writing last August "Countdown to Dollar Implosion", that was supposed to be in November as I recall. I have a biased outlook toward gold given that I'm in the deflation camp but it doesn't matter for this discussion, I've come across only a handful of people that are not only buying physical gold but storing it overseas...the rest are GLD crazy, and then there's Cramer.... they might call it being "safe", I see it different.

I-Man said...

http://news.coinupdate.com/european-dealer-physical-gold-inventories-are-disappearing-0266/

Guess dude wasnt far off when he said this on May 7th:

"The difficulty of finding any physical gold to purchase in Europe right now is a problem we could easily see in the US within a week or two."

AmenRa said...

CV

Check to see if they have construction permits. A vault 21 stories underground with armed security.

McFearless said...

oh and btw, little known fact possibly to many of you; almost all (I'm not even sure of one that allows it) large US brokerage houses make it illegal to rec. physical gold to a client, as it's "selling away", GLD is the defacto option.

I-Man said...

GLD is just the tip of the iceberg...

I-Man said...

No PHI for you, SPX... get that ass back below 1078 where ye belong...

McFearless said...

GLD is worthless....so yes, it is the tip, lol.

leveraged 100:1, the more it's announced there is no gold and that thing rises the more risky it gets. And then one day.......poof.

McFearless said...

I really hate triangles....lets just put this Monday in the closet.

Nic said...

McF - when you say illegal you mean someone recommending physical gold to a client would lose their job?

I-Man said...

"So poof... vamoose, son of a bitch."

AmenRa said...

I can see the MSM headlines: "Stocks close off their lows. Held 1080 and is tradable bottom for stocks." Buy, buy, buy.

CV said...

@McF

1082 is turning out to be the Triangle of all triangles... (coming to an end)...

I'll show you tomorrow morning on the thread...

McFearless said...

Nic,

If you came to me today and I told you to go to set up an account at gold money, if my OSJ found out I'd get a letter of caution, second time or third likely fired...yes. I'm not an employee where I work either.

On another note, if we are going to sell lower, we better get on with it already, the longer it takes for that to happen the more I'm likely to roll with this as corrective, sad but true.

Leftback said...

Nic, sell the yen here? Rooster or Donkey?

I-Man said...

I dont know what you call it, but the setup I'm playing for is a move back down to 1050, a shakeout maybe below 1044, get us all thinking 900s, and then snap back, put a lower high in around 1130 or so, and then the plunge...

McFearless said...

and Nic, the reason I bring it up is because brokers herd. You really think brokers are going to say:

Oh, Sally, it'd be a lot safer for you to own some physical gold overseas and pay the small storage fee.

Nope:

It's more like this:

I need to get paid biatch, er, Sally, GLD is the best! You own REAL GOLD.

and this little skit doesn't even get to why they are saying to buy it in the first place, which I still maintain it's because the vast majority believe inflation/hyperinflation is on our doorstep.

CV said...

CV is shorting into the close here...

AmenRa said...

Ben

Nothing wrong with closing down 0.5% each day. It keeps the bulls hope alive.

CV said...

I'll still probably get PUNKED by that 1095 tomorrow...

I-Man said...

See? (my 3:37)

Sometimes you just have to talk tough to her to get her to do what you want...

If only that same trick worked at home...

AmenRa said...

Ben

"It's more like this:

I need to get paid biatch, er, Sally, GLD is the best! You own REAL GOLD. "

Ok. I had to turn away from the computer before I had food all over my screen from laughing.

McFearless said...

Ra,

No doubt....I also keep that big jump in AAII in the back of my mind. I see a lot of people that keep waiting for higher prices to short.....P3 isn't going to let anyone in. This is going to be really hard to trade.

@I,

start talking to her a little earlier tomorrow! lol.

I-Man said...

LOL!

I just tried to "scroll down" my SPX 1min chart, like I would a web page...

Thats funny.

AmenRa said...

Uh oh. They broke through the low from earlier today with 10 minutes left. Last time they did it with 5 minutes left.

McFearless said...

get on with it already indeed, lol. That might be a post of mine I have to keep.

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