AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bearish short day and confirmed bullish thrusting. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still history. Midpoint submerged below 10 SMA. The 233 SMA (1081.48) was tested and failed. Below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back below trendline using 2010 lows. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1128.15. Trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Tested the 85.4% retrace (failed). No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Takuri day. Midpoint below 10 SMA (not for long). Fear of the truth of how bad it really is. China knows. Held the 23.6% retrace and stayed above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Still trading well above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Bullish short day. Back above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1220.30).



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Further confirmation of evening star. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.2565.



JNK
Bearish long day. Closing below previous mid is a rejection of the move. Still didn't close the gap. Back below the 14.6% & 0.0 retrace and also below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish long day. Possible bearish thrusting. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 and failed. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).



WTI
Spinning top day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (barely). Tested and closed above 23.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 71.61).

36 comments:

McFearless said...

Thanks for the wrap Ra.

Here are some recent quotes from Timmay:

"Europe has the capacity to manage through this," Geithner said in an interview on Bloomberg Television that was scheduled to be aired this weekend. "And I think they will."

and then this week:

"European leaders face the difficult challenge of trying to restore sustainability to an unsustainable system."

Yep, looks like these guys have it all figured out. Right? Who knew how V shaped the GIB would be in 09. It's epic!

AmenRa said...

Ben

TG can't stand the internet. Gets busted before he even finishes his sentence.

McFearless said...

Golden Thoughts:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37352471

AmenRa said...

EURUSD to break below 1.21 before the open.

Anonymous said...

@Amen, so where is market heading?

AmenRa said...

Spain isn't playing fair: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-spain-tells-lenders-take-30-loss-provisions-foreclosed-real-estate-held-over-two-years

Bank Of Spain Tells Lenders To Take 30% Loss Provisions On Foreclosed Real Estate Held For Over Two Years

Here comes the latest destabilizing Central Bank "intervention" in Europe. The Bank of Spain, doing what Fed and the Treasury should have done with domestic toxic loans backing worthless real estate, has notified lenders that they should be prepared to set aside much greater loss reserves against assets, "such as real estate, acquired in exchange for bad debts once the holdings have been on their books for more than two years." The staggered loss provision schedule will call for a 10% loss assumption for real estate acquired in foreclosures, 20% for real estate held for more than a year, and 30% for anything held for more than 2 years. Bloomberg reports that Spanish lenders have foreclosed upon property worth nearly €60 billion, which means that very soon Spanish banks, which as we pointed out earlier are already suffering a liquidity crunch as a result of loss of access to Commercial Paper, will have to take an incremental up to €18 billion in asset write-downs, a development which will have a major adverse impact on Spain's banking sector once it funnels through the banking system, and especially once the need for liquidity spikes yet none is found.

From Bloomberg:

AmenRa said...

Anon

I'll let you know in two days. Waiting for a monthly 3LB reversal.

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I was wondering - as this really has me bothered - I thought wave 2's had to retrace at minimum .382 of wave 1. Given this 1173.66-1040.78 the minimum retrace of .382 would have to be 1091.54.

The question would be:

Does the .382 have to be exact?

Or would 1090.75 suffice?

Thanks.

Nic said...

Hello Boys & Girls
Back from a shitty day and looking at my charts. Ugh

call me ahab said...

what a day- end of months are a bitch trying to get people closed-

anyway- I wonder if CV should start wearing this hat- someone has the same avatar as a poster over at Tim knight's blog- just a different expectation for the dow-

http://media.disqus.com/uploads/users/108/189/avatar92.jpg?1273006047

McFearless said...

McHappy,
You could call the this the end of wave ii but I don't favor that fwiw. The internals today supported more of an wave imo, and wave 2's often retrace a fairly large portion of wave 1 if that's what this is. So sure you could call it the end, but I'm not sure that's very objective. I like the count that it is in an a wave likely completed today and the decline was a b wave that will last into tomorrow or friday but the c up will follow to at least 1120's, if not we are going to put in new lows, that's the alternate imo. the bottom line is the trend is down....I'm just trying to find the best entries for shorts now.

McFearless said...

supported more of an "a-wave"

McFearless said...

McHappy,

Here is a tip to hold on to from Andy that can also help you with identification of second waves or something else:

http://andystechnicals.blogspot.com/2009/09/236-rule.html

call me ahab said...

fwiw- Tim Knight's latest post-

The most important takeaway . . . is that this market is moving much, much faster than it did in 2007/2008. We could be seeing a market crash in the next few weeks. What took months back in 2010 will take weeks and what took weeks will take days. And likewise, I would expect the drop to be that much faster as well.

I do think there is something to a more condensed and action packed culmination of this bear market rally

CV said...

@DL (from other thread)

"I managed to make some money today, but am afraid to take a position (long or short) at the moment given that the market is in the middle of the recent range (1042 to 1090)."

And thus... Why CV opted to use "Let's Dance This Mess Around" as the theme for the day...

I'm just a humble DJ :-) (spinnin' tunes for your dancing enjoyment)...

McFearless said...

If this is wrong let me know but as I'm to understand it the relief well for the spill is still a few months out and I think that's estimated, hurricane season starts June 1. Uh.....

pretty scary...I'm hoping for the best here.

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks Ben. I hope you are right and - this should provide no comfort - I would tend to agree. I am wishing I had followed my earlier thoughts in the day to sell in to weakness. HOwever, after watching the futures rachet up in pre-market I sold TZA in pre-market. Hindsight is 20/20 but I probably would have ended up cutting my losses around the lows of the day - lol.

A dip at the open tomorrow followed by 5 waves up would certainly set the stage for quite a fall - and close a gap or two along the way.

Until we break 1040.78 or 1090.75 (for me I would still like to see a rise above 1095.09 to put all doubts aside) I guess we are stuck in limbo - and cash.

Wes said...

...relief well is 2 to 3 months from target

72bat said...

@ cv (& mchappy) -
exactly!
danced back-and-forth yesterday trying to decide whether or not to cut short etf's loose and look for a better entry point later, and... just fidgeted.
watched the dance back-and-forth today, only to leave my partners on the floor right before the music got better.

@ ben -
for some of us non-wavers, a little help on at's 23.6% rule, measured from where, 1040.78? as in 1090.75 - ((1090.75 - 1040.78)* .236) = 1078.95? we broke below this today, so at's rule expect more downward trend?

McFearless said...

@72,

we broke well above the 23.6% retrace if you measure it from the 1173 top to the 1040 bottom which can be counted as five waves down.
On Andy's slide it says: "Whenever the 23.6% retrace is broken it usually signals a deeper correction or a complete trend reversal."

In this case if I'm saying I prefer the a-b-c count then I'm interpreting it as a "deeper correction" and not a "trend reversal", I think the larger trend is now down, but if you use the 23.6% violation you'd expect this current wave we are in to correct deeper, and if it is a second wave that would also support more correction generally, though it doesn't have to, it basically touched a 38% retrace today but the count I'm running with says that we retrace 50-68% the move down before we start down again.

I-Man said...

Today was quite a thriller for the I...

Whereas I kinda like having to flip gears like that in the middle of a session, and go the other way, I dont like having to do it like 3 different times.

That was some straight up liquidation shit going on in the latter part of the day... and you saw it most in the fx... eur was getting dumped hard across the board. I still think something is up over there, and we'll here about it later tonight.

Whatever it is, its probably one of those 'systemic' deals...

Dont yall just love the volatility? (diet snark)

This is what we wanted, now we get to trade it. lol.

BinT said...

Jobless claims tomorrow? I know you saw the story of the very large number of unemployeds due to the oil spill? "Unexpectedly large" number tomorrow?

Wes said...

...iv'e been euo-uup since jan...

...thanks ben

BinT said...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The scope of the damage from the Gulf Coast oil spill is still hard to calculate, but here's a grim tally: More than 23,000 workers and business owners along the Gulf Coast have filed claims so far for lost income.

BP (BP) has made payments already on 9,000 of those claims, disbursing $27.8 million to fishermen, shrimpers, charter boat captains and others whose livelihoods are now in limbo, according to BP spokesman David Nicholas. The company has 420 claims adjusters staffing nearly two dozens processing centers in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi.

Nic said...

"Oil Guru Matthew Simmons: It Could Be 24 Years BP may be trying to stop wrong leak:

http://www.examiner.com/x-33986-Political-Spin-Examiner~y2010m5d26-2010-oil-spill-update-BP-may-be-trying-to-stop-the-wrong-leak-Video

Nic said...


US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus


With what is going on with Libor and this I am starting to think QE2 is inevitable.

BinT said...

These damn economic columnists do read this blog:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37351133/

The Grasshoppers and the Ants – a Modern Fable

BinT said...

Good link Nic about the money supply...

I think CV is just keeping more of his loose change in the cookie jar.....

AmenRa said...

Two differing views:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anqk3Hmea.xM&pos=2
Barton Biggs Says Stock Market Set to ‘Pop’ in Days
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock markets are oversold and may rally strongly over the next few days, said investor Barton Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP.

“I think they’re going to stabilize in this general area, and then we’re going to have a significant move to the upside,” Biggs, whose flagship fund returned three times the industry average last year, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-is-dead-ahead-sell-get-liquid-now-2010-05-25
Warning: Crash dead ahead. Sell. Get liquid. Now.
That was legendary Lakers' radio announcer Chick Hearn's signature way of calling a game early, telling fans the home team won ... you can head for the exits before the final buzzer. Chick wrote the book with popular sports phrases like "slam dunk," "air ball," "charity stripe," and a "bunny hop in the pea patch" for a traveling violation.

Chick's our inspiration today: Last March I wrote "6 reasons I'm calling a bottom and a new bull." Today it's time for a new call. We've had a good year. Net gains over 50% in 2009. But now: "Game over, head for the exits." Bears beating bulls.

No, no, "it's a buying opportunity," says another legend, hedge fund manager, Barton Biggs. Buying opportunity? For who? Remember, Biggs isn't advising Joe Lunchbox about what to do with his little 401(k). Biggs' customers are mega-millionaires in his $1.5 billion Traxis Partners Fund. Main Street investors like Joe are prey in his casino.

call me ahab said...

from Jesse's Cafe- his take on Obama's cavalier disregard of protocol- skipping a speech at Arlington National Cemetery- in my mind- a beautiful and somber place that everyone should make an effort to visit-

except Obama of course- because he couldn't care less-

Obama Skips Presidential Visit to Arlington National Cemetery on Memorial Day

call me ahab said...

. . .and nic @ 9:53-

great article thanks(-:!!!!

AmenRa said...

Nic

So that article begs the question of whether the Fed purposely stopped reporting M3 because they knew about the housing bubble but refused to do anything about it.

Bill Fleckenstein's Mullet said...

TOS is having major forex problems. What the heck is going on? Was that the Chinese denying the Euro rumor? Somebody said earlier today (I forget who) to fade that move, if it came.

mcHAPPY said...

@Ra

The FED is hoping and praying for the boom and bust cycle to continue. The only way they/Treasury can keep going is with huge ups and downs in the stock market to get yields down in busts/crisis - and sell their own C stock in booms/'recoveries'.

mcHAPPY said...

Futures are up 22.5. A lot can happen between now and then but the bear trap calls yesterday APPEAR to be correct.

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

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