Morning Audibles 5.25.10 - An "Uncontrollable Urge"

CV "shorted"(with SPXU) very late yesterday afternoon into the close (3:46 to be precise)...


The "timing" was pure luck, but the decision came about from looking at a different set of charts in the afternoon (out of boredom - as I'd been waiting for a "melt-up" to 1095-1097 all morning & afternoon)...


Here's what I saw...






All of a sudden, the market seemed to be struggling with the 1082 level (that's why I started to look around at different charts because that level didn't particularly mean much to me at the time)... On the chart, it appeared that a "triangle" was ending. It was either going to end on the days close, OR, the next day (which many of you know know that I was talking about "Next Tuesday, Next Tuesday" - which is DAY 21 from the 1200 high and DAY 13 from the "flash crash")...


Triangles are ALWAYS formed on charts, but this one seemed to bear added significance... Two of the lines on the triangle corresponded with the two largest UP buying frenzy days since the March '09 rally began (I've annotated those on the chart)... The LARGEST was the move last July (which was something like a 23:1 up day...


In any case, it seemed to me that the market (into the close) was about to give up the highest momentum days of the past year... This had "briefly" been done during the FLASH CRASH, then again last Friday, but the "invisible hand" saved the market going into the weekend... Mr. Market seemed DETERMINED to get to this level... 


Here's what it looked like on 1 minute charts... (that last GANN line was the failure point)...




So basically, the market needs to search for a new level... Anybody could offer a good guess as to where that might be... Here are some possibilities:


- 1044 = February Low
- 1042 = Major FIBO extension (from 1220)


And of course there are others... 


Something that I don't think should be discounted is the 905 level... Why? Because that was the 23:1 "up" day last July 15th (where a chart gap still exists)... That level would also provide some interesting possibilities... A 78.6% retrace (from 905 back to 1220) would take you back to 1150 (which has already been established as an important level)... I'm just thinking ahead here...


Perhaps we go back up a little first and backtest some of the breakdown levels? Or perhaps the attitude will be "sell now - ask questions later"... That's for you all and your UNCONTROLLABLE URGES to navigate...





258 comments:

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McFearless said...

well, we'll have to watch all the internals to see if this is really a third wave, if it is, we've got a ways to go yet.

CNBC is straight up comedy this morning....

and they don't have Devo.

AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AmenRa said...

[quote]
"K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!! K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!!"
[/quote]

This is not a drill. Please report to your assigned door. This is not a drill. Please report to your assigned door.

McFearless said...

@ahab,

bottom thread, re: consumer

I don't know man....it all looks pretty "typical" to me. :)

CV said...

@McF

Keep us apprised (from your perspective) on the internals (as they relate to WAVE THEORY) during the day if you can spare the time...

CV said...

@McF (or McHappy)

If this is a "3", what would be some of the potential targets?

I have all kinds of potential targets in my head (that I want to narrow down)...

AmenRa said...

ES bounced off its Feb 10 lows. Pure unadulterated fear.

CV said...

1042 should be an EASY mark...

I think 930-ish would be up next... Does a "3" extend that far?

McFearless said...

C,

will do, for the case of the third wave everything should be really strong volume/ declines over advances, etc. If not we could say it's a fifth wave but I have the triangle count ranked as high as the count that says this is wave five down here.

should be a fun day...I hope the open isn't the low!

CV said...

@Amen

The only thing that bothers me is that this IS "Day 21/Day13"...

That could signal a conclusion or reversal...

All "corrections" since March '09 have concluded on FIBO days...

McFearless said...

C,

If it's wave iii of 3 then 9k on the DOW and 970 S&P, the fifth wave would take the dow to ~8,500.

CV said...

@McF

I have a funny "inkling" that we'll print something lower than 1042 (just to give it that "you KNOW we're going lower eventually" wink and nod)...

It could buy some time... 4 trading days left in May... A MONTHLY 3lb reversal looms LARGE!

CV said...

@McF (8:36)

Thanks... LOL... Remember in January I was tossing out 972? (I even had a POLL up on it - which included the selection - "More numbers you're pulling out of your @ss CV" - That types like Texas Radio did not hesitate to select)...

All in good fun!

call me ahab said...

b22-

100 weeks of unemployment-

what's untypical about that?

It's only 2 years after all

CV said...

@ahab

Send 'em all up to the farm...

I've got plenty of "chores" they could do...

"Will work for food"? Got plenty of that! :-)

AmenRa said...

CV

Fibo days could be directional changes or indications of direction days. I prefer the latter.

mcHAPPY said...

I have no idea what to think of today. So many possibilities.

1042-1044 is huge. I think we bounce off there regardless. Problem is a .382 retracement takes us back in to the 1055 range, .618 takes us in to the l071 area, .786 in to the 1078 area and of course we could go all the way back to 1086-1090 depending on where this started:

from there do we head lower or bounce higher?

I know what I am hoping for but ????????????????????

I have no way to checking internals - not that far along yet. Could someone maybe give me a heads up of what internals are saying in to the morning? Not advice, just what the internals are saying. Much appreciated.

CV said...

@Amen

I much prefer the latter...

Carry on to 34... as you please...

call me ahab said...

CV @ 8:47-

hey man- I will be swimming up stream to your place myself if things get to ugly(-:!!!

call me ahab said...

"Home Prices Edge Down as Tax Credit Fails to Lift Market"- CNBC

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday posted a 0.5 percent drop from February . . .The figures point to a weakening housing market despite historically low mortgage rates . . .


Wow- what amazes me is the tax credit was in full force for March- March also being a month for prime Spring home buying-

I wonder what other incredible rabbits can be pulled out of their hats to shore up home prices?

If the USG was brave- it would kill the mortgage interest deduction- let home's find their true values- it would be a bonanza in the end- making home more affordable and bringing in many more buyers-

also- it would mean more tax $$$ for the USG-

and from a philosophical perspective- it agrees with my notion that the USG should be neutral on the rent vs buy decsion

McFearless said...

consumer confidence in 30 minutes

McFearless said...

Richard Russell has gotten extremely bearish the last few days, RR is an old-timer, been around a long time so I pay attention to what he has to say.

His PTI is moving quickly towards a 0 reading, bullish by only 17, it was bullish by nearly 70 just a few weeks ago.

karen said...

morning! have an order in to sell some dto.. kicking myself for not jumping into srs yesterday..

AmenRa said...

Approaching 2/5/10 lows...

call me ahab said...

b22-

I imagine confidence is highly dependent on continued UE checks and food stamps-

it at least keeps people hopeful- you know they are just unemployed- waiting for the turn around-

not wards of the state- and hopeless-

it's all an illusion

Anonymous said...

Anybody else watching the 3 month LIBOR?
That has been steadily climbing 1-2% a day.
My memory is faulty, but it looks as high now as it was before The Fiasco.

foghorn

AmenRa said...

Oops. Too late.

McFearless said...

ahab,

it's sad, I feel pretty lucky to have work. I think things are going to get a lot worse still.

@foghorn,

hell yes, good eye on LIBOR.

AmenRa said...

Fibo .09 at 1041.83 has been breached. Will it close higher than that today? It better or HELLO 931.

McFearless said...

Ra,

I'm not sure, I'm selling some of my shorts at the open in case we end up getting a huge bounce here, I'm willing to feel some pain on the rest of what I have on that bounce rather than be out completely if this is a third wave.

I-Man said...

I-Man would probably be buying now... but thats just my first glance at the tape.

At minimum, my shorts would be closed, and I'd be waiting for a reentry.

I-Man said...

I love how we gapped at 1068... watch that level.

CV said...

Ha!

From here you need a 76.8% retracement just to GET BACK to the 1065 "flash crash" low...

FAT FINGER MY @SS!

karen said...

so much for the flash crash lows..

CV said...

I'm 'hedging' a little down here at 1042...

call me ahab said...

. . .and did anyone get the feeling that the top was in when BR was going on and on about "buying what he hates"- you know C- the company he lambasted for over a year-

I was shaking my head at that one

CV said...

GS is 'green'... LOL

I-Man said...

DXY right at the resistance at 87.30...

SPX right at the downside targets...

Stage is set for a pretty drastic reversal here...

I-Man said...

I'm watching the 1055 for a bear trap.

McFearless said...

lots of people drew out yesterday as a 4...problem is on the ES 2 and 4 look almost identical...

I-Man said...

Do you see any EW counts that would point to a lower high in the 1135 range Ben?

call me ahab said...

"Don't Rule Out a Double Dip Recession"- WSJ

gee- ya think? and things have going along so swimmingly

karen said...

anyone know what's going on with North Korea ?

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY sold all TZA.

If it was a bad decision, another opportunity will present itself short-ly. *pun intended*

McFearless said...

I,

sure, we might still be in an A wave of an A-B-C corrective, though I think that is unlikely. right now, for my book, the trend is down so I'm only looking for short entries on any bounce.

Put options have been a traders dream the last three weeks.

karen said...

BnT.. a Seth Klarman article:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704167704575258442772338282.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_personalfinance

McFearless said...

Karen,

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIYqEKNAeYs4&pos=8

re: North Korea

Lets just hope this fine architechture isn't harmed with this madman's latest:

I believe Gandalf lives at the top:

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://seeker401.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/ryugyong-hotel.jpg&imgrefurl=http://seeker401.wordpress.com/2009/08/05/ryugyong-hotel-in-north-korea/&usg=__d2b1Tb332-mXQF7Wdafs5RlamxQ=&h=607&w=460&sz=109&hl=en&start=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=cgUDWz5CRpEIjM:&tbnh=136&tbnw=103&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dnorth%2Bkorea%2Bhotel%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DX%26tbs%3Disch:1

call me ahab said...

karen-

all I know is that Kim Jong-il is "ronery"

So Ronery

karen said...

Consumers getting more hopeful about jobs
10:01 AM ET 5/25/10 | Marketwatch
WASHINGTON -- U.S. consumers are regaining confidence about the economy and their chances for finding a job, the Conference Board said Tuesday, as it reported that its consumer confidence index rose to 63.3 in May from 57.7 in April.

It was the third consecutive increase and the highest level since March 2008.

McFearless said...

not enough power behind this move yet to call it a 3. We'll need something more.

karen said...

ahab, i can't believe someone made that video !

McFearless said...

Wow, so CC edges up and so did AAII bulls last week. It's all coming together....

call me ahab said...

"It was the third consecutive increase and the highest level since March 2008."

you see! how prescient consumer confidence is-

consumer's always know when good times are ahead- lol

AmenRa said...

They are really trying to hold the psychological 1050 level. But that's just it. It's psychological. Doesn't mean a damn thing.

McFearless said...

the all-time high in consumer confidence came just before a huge market decline. I'll have to dig that data up if CC presses higher for another month or two.

call me ahab said...

karen-

that's from "Team America"- one of the funniest movies I've ever seen

I-Man said...

I think its more this whole 1040-1065 range that is psychological...

A lot of important prints within this range.

A lot of psychology built up.

Not to mention orders.

:)

CV said...

I think the ZERO to 36,000 range is psychological...

call me ahab said...

consumer confidence is a lagging indicator- rear view mirror stuff-

anyway- gotta roll- all have a good day

karen said...

A billionaire goes all in on gold.

a similar article is in the WSJ

AmenRa said...

hee hee ZH traffic is too high...again. Should've known that was coming.

karen said...

as far as i can see.. there is no support for spx until 1119-1129..

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vV7Sl9GGHU

Here is some raw vid of the ROV surfacing, it is 10 min long.
Skip to 8:00 to see a giant oil bloom, just beneath the surface.
The whole vid is pretty interesting.

foghorn

McFearless said...

I imagine articles like karen's make the Wizard just a wee bit uneasy.

mcHAPPY said...

Nothing here appears impulsive.

CV said...

CV to Wizard... "Blow Me"

CV said...

@McHappy

When you have a printing press, 33 Liberty on speed dial, and no internal audits...

I doubt ANYTHING will really look impulsive...

karen said...

Ben, CBs and Fed should be uneasy! they brought this upon us !! so now what, i wonder.. I guess gold will stabilize at a much higher price eventually..

CV said...

@McF

EWI is going to have to write a NEW CHAPTER after all is said & done here...

"How to interpret IMPULSE waves with CB intervention"

CV said...

@karen (10:38)

Especially to Euro :-)

72bat said...

from macro-man this a.m.:
"Yes, GDP may be running at a reasonable lick in the US, but how much of that is still on the back of borrowing and public spending? In fact, you have to wonder whether GDP measures are the next accounting con to unravel. Should they really ever contain public spending figures funded by increases in debt? If I borrow money and give it to the kids to buy sweets does that mean we as a family have a higher GDP and so should be lent more? Seems daft...."
that analogy might even resonate with my siblings

McFearless said...

CV,

That will never happen with those guys. The central banks are just part of the market and can be counted in the waves. "Intervention" has been going on for a few hundred years, this time is no different.

We can let the charts do the talking though, the 10/07-03/09 painted one hell of an impulse, textbook almost...and CB's were intervening the entire time that was going on!

Now if MacGruber gets involved.....

AmenRa said...

Arrgghh. The Trin keeps pushing below 1 (barely). I can smell the desperation. Must I remind them that bottoms are found in hindsight.

McFearless said...

GDP is a scam, I agree with that idea. Ask Japan.

karen said...

bat, been meaning to ask you.. was that oil platform story every substantiated?

AmenRa said...

Isn't it around a 3% move down that algos are programmed to sell with impunity? That happens to be 1041.44.

karen said...

the only bottom i'm seeing here is mine..

McFearless said...

Ra,

the longer that TRIN stays below 1....well, there is just no buying power.

McFearless said...

If that 10:50 doesn't bring LB out...nothing will.

AmenRa said...

Karen

Gracias mi amiga. I can now fully enjoy the market bloodbath :o)

I-Man said...

Yawn... I'm ready to go home now.

AmenRa said...

Why is GS green? All of the other banks are being decimated (even C which is used to game the market).

CV said...

@karen

Doh! :-)

I-Man said...

GS is the tell, this bitch is going higher.

CV said...

Let's not be talking about putting "bottoms" in just yet...

karen said...

I think GS got support (buying interest) at 134 which was previous low (July 2009). i think it needs to see 130 at a minimum.

Leftback said...

Karen,

I'm not seeing anything but a delightful bottom here.

Leftback said...

Damn, my rooster is still too large for the box....

72bat said...

karen -
if you are referencing the story about the schlumberger cbl crew asking for a top kill and, when the bp co-man refused, leaving the platform just 8 hours before the explosion..., i have not seen any confirmation and doubt schlumberger would voluntarily confirm.
latest disturbing rumor is reports of oil now erupting through sea bottom around the wellhead, i.e., speculation of erosion and rupture of drill casing some 100s of feet below the sea bottom.

I-Man said...

The bottom IS in...

For this round anyway...

Leftback said...

LB has to run for the annual performance evaluation......

hmm.... A for "strategy", a B- for "execution", a C for "cheerleading".

72bat said...

perhaps if the coxcomb were removed it might just fit
(btw - welcome back lb ;^)

karen said...

But, I, it is so early in the day !! My bottom is too big for the box, too. I will change it up.

mcHAPPY said...

Gone back all short with a stop of 1072. Wish me luck.

Anonymous said...

@Ben, Ems are just HOT AIR pumped by U$D an Yen carry trade. What's happening today? King dollar.

Anyone who says Chindia - I'd say Wall St. doing God's work! If this market were to really tank, see what happens in India.

I never really bought the sugar(commodity) story. I said it then, just watch the U$D.

Thanks to guys like you.

Leftback said...

Double top has formed in TLT. We will be looking to take something off the table today. Those summer purchases at TLT 89-90 ...? Sweet......!

McFearless said...

I agree, too early in the day yet....I'm open to a few things but the trend is down, at the minimum today woudl have given us an impulsive overall looks from highs to today's lows. they key is to limit damage if you are short on the countertrend moves and prepare your entries.

I'm still in the P3 camp though....so I have that going for me. lol.

@anon,

king dollar indeed. I took all my dollar profit off a while ago, missed some of this upside.

McFearless said...

today is a day when i think TRIN is much more valuable than p/c. P/c has been well over 1 all day, but there might be some spreads being put on right now that aren't bearish. Puts arent' cheap anymore.

Anonymous said...

GS buying back their shares.

karen said...

i'm still holding out for $64-65 crude to sell some dto.. it's got great upward momentum now.. 86 quite attainable in my eyes..

karen said...

oops.. that foto really doesn't fit! was supposed to represent my hold of crude short from top to bottom! lol!!

Leftback said...

Karen, LB's <3 is beating faster, and it's not b/c of the market....

Back later.

friz said...

GDP uses 1937 methodology and indicators perfectly suited for 1937.

McFearless said...

F GS.

That's all I've got to say about that.

karen said...

somehow i think these fellows are having more fun than we are:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jI6LqfFNYcw&feature=player_embedded#!

karen said...

LOVE the music in the background of this one.. need to find out who it is!

http://www.youtube.com/user/larryburtlemann#p/a/u/1/I29j9ODWbBg

McFearless said...

@I,

the 1130ish area is a nice target if we've completed 5 waves at the low today, that maps pretty well. I'm just njot sure near term, need a few more days, could still be corrective or in the middle of something bigger down. I didn't see anything special in this mornings sell-off that screams Wave 3.

I-Man said...

I think 1055 at about 12:45 EST will say alot about where we close the day.

In the meantime, I'll be explaining the intracacies of the carry trade to some mesmerized brokers.

CV said...

@karen

I agree... LOVE that music there!

McFearless said...

I wouldnt' mind seeing FXP back near a 50 handle in the next day or three.

karen said...

okay ben.. i posited 1019-1029 above.. your 1030 works for me, too.

CV said...

@McF (11:41)

The Market would have to spend an awful lot of energy to get back to 1130...

If you look at the chart that I put in the thread, it took an 18:1 day back in November to get over 1082... And it took a 13:1 day to get over that 1130 hump...

Yes, I still think we can retest (possibly as high as 1150)... But not while this kind of damage is still fresh in the minds...

Many must be thinking "get me to June 30th" ASAP...

I counsel "LOWER"... (I'm looking for, perhaps 1061 today, at best)... If it starts moving upwards ENERGETICALLY after that, I'll change my view...

CV said...

@McF

& face it...

Now that the banksters know that Bernanke is their "beatch"... They'll tank this thing down so hard that he'll be forced to ante up with more liquidity...

He won't act until the REAL CRISIS hits (because he's basically out of bullets already)... But QE3 will be forthcoming...

Obama will get a TARP BABY to call his very own...

CV said...

@Amen

Lay some "candle law" on me...

1157 (we just hit a 50% retrace from todays low to yesterdays close)...

What kind of candle scenarios are therefore shaping up?

1161 is a 61.8%

karen said...

CV! I shazamed it.. "Us on Fire" Kinny & Horne (Album, Forgetting to Remember.)

CV said...

@karen

"Shazam"! Thanks Isis!

karen said...

Us on Fire

karen said...

crude selling off again.. leading or following the market/risk aversion.

AmenRa said...

CV

The SPX candle today is forming a hammer but if it closes closer to the open it will become a takuri.

AmenRa said...

CV

Also since we're nowhere near the body of yesterdays candle (or even the lower shadow) the candle stands alone and doesn't say much. If a hammer it will need confirmation. If somehow someway it gets into the body it will be bullish thrusting. If it gets above 1079.22 it will be bullish piercing.

wunsacon said...

>> Obama will get a TARP BABY to call his very own...

Hey CV, here you go:
"Obama adviser calls for new ‘mini-stimulus’"

If I recall correctly, I believe it was "Hans Gruber" in Die Hard 1 that said something like: "You ask for miracles. I give you L-a-r-r-y S-u-m-m-e-r-s".

...

Hello, blogmaster, please expand the spacing between comments or do something else to delineate one them visually (e.g, use bold font for the "nnnn said..."). Danke.

...

Lurking occasionally, folks. But, gotta run. Later, taters...

wunsacon said...

Actually, CV, please refer to it as "Son of Stimulus". "TARP baby", er, carries some unnecessary baggage.

AmenRa said...

Why is it that on hard down days the NYSE system pukes?

BinT said...

Actually I think the call for a new "mini-stimulus is interesting. Obama wants it, but we've had several elections and primaries since he was elected and the democrats in congress can't feel too good right now about them..I wonder how much Obama, Reid, and Pelosi will be able to push this time...only 6 months until November.

Leftback said...

We are overdue for a face-ripper. But are they out of bazookas?

BinT said...

CV, been away from the computer this am....did you close the position you opened yesterday, or do you have the brass b...s this am?

CV said...

Maxwell Smart says... (to KAOS agent)

"Right now I have my bazooka poised & ready"

KAOS: "I find that hard to believe"

Max: "Would you believe a SUPER SOAKER"?

KAOS: "No"

Max: "How about coffee stirrer filled with water"?

CV said...

@Bruce

Position is still open...

I "hedged" at 1042 (with UPRO)...

So I have two "greenies" working together now... :-)

I'm looking to ADD to SPXU (if I can find the right level)...

I-Man said...

Bear trap looks like its being set...

BinT said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/europe's-troubles-will-lead-to-the-rise-of-the-communist-left-494826.html?tickers=uup,%5Eftse,%5EGDAXI,tlt,%5Edji,%5Egspc

"Provided By Business Insider, May 24, 2010:

That's the argument put forth by Ambrose-Evans Pritchard in his latest Telegraph column, and despite it sounding hyperbolic, it's one of his best in awhile, and it represents the vanguard of thinking about the European crisis.

The whole thing is a must-read, but the gist is this: Austerity is doomed to failure. There's no way Greece or any of the Club Med countries can climb out of their hole by cutting spending and shrinking their GDP."

Leftback said...

He he.. communism in Europe is not a fantasy. A short history lesson for the kiddies, here.

Naples was run by Communists most of the time, Italy has a large communist party, and then like in the 70s, there were these large countries, see, before Ronny Ray-Gun, that were like, all Marxist-Leninist, sort of communisty, like all at the same time.

Then Greece, until the 70s, was fascist, it was run by the colonels, a lot like the Argentinian junta, in a very Banana Republic way, for the benefit of the shippers and olive growers. Spain was ruled by Franco when LB was a little chap, in the 1960s, also fascist, and Portugal had their own fascists as well. So democracy is a late arrival in many parts of Europe. Who knew those Euros were so craaaazy?

karen said...

i see nothing to get bullish about.. even gdx loos to have more downside in store this week..

Leftback said...

3.99% on the 30y represents the panic low in yield during Flash Crash.

TLT 100 is the equivalent, that's strong resistance here. The most likely event here seems to be selling of Treasuries, selling volatility, selling Yen and BUCKY, eventually leading to a face ripper in equities.

I-Man said...

I-Man is by no means "bullish"...

Just respecting the markets potential to put in a takuri and rip some face.

I-Man said...

From where I'm sitting, the bulls have a legitimate shot to reclaim 1062 in the next few minutes, if they dont, then bombs away.

Leftback said...

The 1090 and 1110 levels are reachable with a modest squeeze by YE COLDE STELE, with a week long rip up to the SPX 1150 level representing a much greater degree of pain to the nether regions.

Not bullish at all, just aware of the short-term oversold condition.

LB does think that the 4.00% 30y is a very significant hurdle for Ts.

I-Man said...

But that AUD/JPY will be the chart to watch...

I cant really see the SPX doing a real puker unless that one breaks first.

73.25 looks like the level to pay attn to.

McFearless said...

C,
re: 1130 target, I only think we get this if this entire move ends up corrective ABC which we just can't eliminate yet, that said, there is no buying power, and mf's have no cash....my bias is down and short, as stated above, I'm only using countertrend moves to find short entries, if the trend is down there is no sense fighting it, would have been like trying to short every countertrend move since march 09.

karen said...

I can see a big drop because they have essentially scared all the shorts out of the market.. and selling begets selling as mr. margin gets his money first.

I-Man said...

So much for group think around here... lol.

karen said...

srs is so effing peculiar! i might have to go in big on that one day.. actually interested in buying gdx soon.. or an equivalent..

BinT said...

I-Man:

Well, there is group think wrong, and maybe group think right. Perhaps the real group think exists on...say, CNBC?

I-Man said...

Guess I wasnt the only one watching AUD/JPY at 73.25...

You watching this Nic?

karen said...

oops on crude : )

karen said...

30 year not at an extreme yet.. wait for 3.88

karen said...

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department sold $42 billion 2-year notes (UST2YR 0.74, +0.00, +0.55%) on Tuesday at a yield of 0.769%, the lowest cost for the government ever but a little higher than traders expected.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-sells-2-year-notes-at-record-low-yield-2010-05-25-1311340?siteid=bnbh

maybe they make the market go up now, LOL.

McFearless said...

Karen,

1:22, I love how people continue to make a Zimbabwe comparison when you got paper moving with yields like that.

CV said...

@McF @karen

CV remains with a "strong" short bias...

Amen - chime in here, but a WEEKLY print "lower" than 1086 means we're TRENDING down on the WEEKLY 3LB, right?

By that standard, it would take TWO weeks before putting the WEEKLY 3LB "reversal" line at the 1150 level...

Trouble is - By that time you're into June... Which means that you've basically done a reversal on the MONTHLY 3lb as well (which is very bearish)...

CV doesn't see any FACE RIPPERS until all those dominoes are in place... At this point, the 'correction' takes us to 34 days... (That's June 14th)...

Let the face ripping start then...

karen said...

Bill Gross isn't looking to smart of late : )

Nic said...

Hello I-Man
I think AUD is oversold and has much further up to go as a correction

karen said...

No face rippers.. if they monetize, the money will go into gold and miners now.. imo.. (and that was "too" above, sorry.)

McFearless said...

Even if we just close flat the rest of the week the candle from this week is going to be disaster.

karen said...

Nic, perhaps that is true (oversold) but looking at $xad chart.. 77.50 is nearly 'fer sure' as they say in so cal.

I-Man said...

Thx Nic,
That was a pretty classic shakeout there on the AUDJPY (is there a cool nickname for that cross btw?) 1min chart at 73.25...

Silly I, thought that those games were only played in US equities...

McFearless said...

Karen,

I'm getting the impression you've gotten your moxie back this week....

karen said...

Ben! I like your new icon!

karen said...

had i lost it?! well, losing money is never fun.

McFearless said...

I'll put the P3 map up as my icon if we sell harder the next few weeks :)

for now a picture of what will nearly go to 0 is good though.

McFearless said...

no, you never lost it, just wasnt' on display as often.

Nic said...

Karen I agree about $xad

Leftback said...

CBs only need to sell some dollars and yen overnight to generate a typical bear market 6-8% face ripper. Euro, AUD and CAD shorts are ripe for a squeeze.

Karen, nice shoes, any success with your bottom icon, my rooster still doesn't fit in the box, the head seems to pop out over the top.

Where do you get 3.88% on the 30y?

I-Man said...

Clever tounge.

karen said...

LB, YOU are over the top.. 3.888 was low last fall (2009), but even 3.80 seems a given now.. with 3.4 the real support.

I-Man said...

Cant wait to hear what Mr Topstep has to say today!

karen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
karen said...

what's exciting me is that h&S on 5 min crude..

Nic said...

Mr Topstep time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNEnYAi6vRU

Leftback said...

No belly for LB after last night's futbol endeavours, K, but thanks for the compliment, anyway.

DL said...

If TPTB are going to induce a 5% rally, I would think early next week would be more likely than this week.

karen said...

OT: i learned a new trick yesterday *67 to block your cellphone number from the person you are calling.. especially good if someone wants to borrow your phone to make a call.

Nic said...

Sep 35/50 call spread vix
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2W1VI_veHs

I-Man said...

Ahh... so its you that keeps prank calling me at odd hours of the night...

Anonymous said...

*67 before or after dialed number is entered

karen said...

*67 then the number..

I-Man said...

So who is "TopNotch" Nic?

Sounds like a smart cat... ;)

I-Man said...

I-Man just cant shake the feeling that this thing is about to explode to the upside...

McFearless said...

*67, lol.

TopStep said it all, in so many words, a close below 1050 is bareish.

I-Man said...

So I wont say another word about it... promise.

See yall later.

Nic said...

This 1050 level is a toughie but when you knock on a door enough times ...

karen said...

Nic, like skating on thin ice!

AmenRa said...

CV

Yes. A lower weekly close will have the SPX trending down....and a monthly 3LB reversal.

mcHAPPY said...

Looking at the chart on the 15 minute candles, it would appear there is a possible 5 wave up. However, going down to a 5 minute or 2 minute view, you can clearly see any attempt to make it work as a 1 for a bullish movement up does not fit the criteria. This whole sequence feels corrective again and if I had to guess we would be in a 2. Minimum requirements for a 2 (.382) have been met. The shape/form of this movement is looking eerily familar to other corrections of late.

Looking for 5 waves up followed by weakness here. Do not forget we are under 2 hours.

karen said...

interesting video on our oil addiction from Nov 2008.. could almost be today! (ps.. i know the fellow.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVmJfdKv4z4

McFearless said...

McHappy,

keep in mind that five wave moves happen in corrections as well, the larger waves point down until we rule out the ABC completely.

DL said...

My bet is that if you buy the close on Friday (5/28/10), there'll be at least one day next week when you'll be able to sell at a significant profit.

McFearless said...

buy puts DL?

I think you likely would not have needed to clarify that statement a month ago, today you do.

McFearless said...

I'm watching for June calls on CAT for a potential small trade

DL said...

McF @ 2:28

No, I'm not saying to buy puts. I'm saying go long at the close on Friday, and you'll get a chance to sell next week at a decent profit.

Leftback said...

JNK is trading green today.

We see short-term weakness in Ts ahead, spreads have widened quite appreciably these last two weeks. Risk-on dead ahead, we think.

McFearless said...

lol, DL, I was playing man, I knew what you were saying.

McFearless said...

LB,

I see JNK down...red?

thought it is "off the lows"

karen said...

JNK not even oversold.. attempts to catch a falling knife? can't wait to see next dividend.. and jnk is red, -.53

DL said...

I'm somewhat inclined to submit a limit order tonight to buy ESM0 at the 1039 level. If it gets filled (in the wee hours of the morning), I should be able to sell at a profit without having to wait very long.

McFearless said...

brave soul....

I-Man said...

I'm thinking close at 1072

Leftback said...

Thanks guys, sorry, LB was looking at the wrong chart...

It's all Karen's delicious icons. Poor LB can't think straight, look at the rooster, it's like a headless chicken.

Sitting on my hands here but inclined toward selling the long end before too long, maybe into the weekend.

karen said...

why not 1080?

I-Man said...

Gotta save some meat on the bone for tomorrow, right?

I-Man said...

But I like what you're watching, Mistress...

McFearless said...

thoughts on the Euro today???...big bounce coming soon imo. the extreme sentiment is following a very similar timeline as it did on the dollar last year with the euro, took about a month and half-two months after the most extreme reading in DSI to bottom out, we are probably real close.

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