AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


I love it when the trading day is feisty.



SPX
Bullish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still holding. Midpoint below 10 SMA. The 233 SMA (1082.35) was tested and passed. Back above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back above trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB with changes. Trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Tested the 85.4% retrace (failed). No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing it's not a dream. Did not hold the 23.6% retrace and fell below 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Still trading well above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Doji day (probably deciding which call option will expire worthless on the next contract). Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1220.30).



EURUSD
Bullish engulfing day. Still below evening star pattern low. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (passed). Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bullish short day. Still didn't close the gap (5th try). Back above the 14.6% retrace but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bullish day. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 and failed. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. New high on daily 3LB with reversal still 136.10.



SLV
Bullish long day. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Back above 21 SMA. Held the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.




10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Midpoint still below 10 SMA. Tested 38.2% retrace (passed). No daily 3LB changes.

35 comments:

BinT said...

Damn, AmenRa, I thought you were a boy! Nice melons! Great picture! What does the rest of the family look like....? I guess that is a gender neutral name, when you mull it over......

Nic said...

Amen-Ra you are a cool cat!

If I am not mistaken that's a double top on the dollar index, confirmed if we break below 85.00
That fits with the triple bottom on EURUSD too.
Rally on then!

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben

Good advice from previous thread. Thank you.

AmenRa said...

BinT

Family reunions would be outlawed.

Nic

I still think today was all about clearing 10k.

McFearless said...

Nic,

I like how you are thinking re: dollar and euro. In this case though I'd rather not get long the euro but identify spots to rebuild a dollar position. I've pretty much kept this same dollar idea for well over a year now, the more deflation sets in the higher the dollar goes.

Nic said...

The dollar is the weakest long McF
The best longs Vs the USD are the commodity currencies AUD, NZD and CAD.
We had a correlation change earlier this year where the dollar rallied with equities but it looks like we are back to strong stocks and weak dollar which was the pattern for most of last year.

Nic said...

Sorry I meant to say the EUR was the weakest long.

Nic said...

I am still a dollar bull McF so I am seeing this as a healthy correction and a retest from above of the very long term trendline we broke above. Will post a chart in a bit.

Nic said...

I do not see the dollar index below 82.50 the more I look at it.

McFearless said...

Nic,

yeah I figured you meant euro. I'll keep an eye out for the chart. I'm a big dollar bull as well, I have some general targets right now of where I think the dollar can retrace, oddly enough this is more of a "fundamental" thing for me b/c the wave count isn't as clear as the one on stocks right now.

mcHAPPY said...

Been looking at a few charts and sites this evening. Here is my take:

A break of 1090 would be like throwing lubricant on the slipe and slide.

It appears we are on an uptrend but I would not be surprised to see weakness at the open based on EUR:USD.

If you look at the 10 minute candles on the EUR:USD you can see a clear 5 waves up followed by an ABC correction and another impulse higher. Where this wave count is I'm not sure but I would guess 1 and 2 are complete and we are working on 3. I would not think we are finished 3 because it appears too short compared to 1.

Looking at the DXY via Lara there appears to be a 4th wave currently in play. Her target has been reached and slightly breached so the fifth wave should be a peach or a day at the beach for the bears among us.

The EUR:USD and DXY set up is telling me we go higher - although weakness at the open would not be a surprise before a final surge.

call me ahab said...

b22-

dude- your comment this morning regarding-

"well Bush went to Normandy"

pretty damn funny- because ol' Bushy stepped up- he didn't go to his Texas ranch and visit some local memorial

Anonymous said...

Steam out of Canadian banks today. Red. Didn't make as much money as expected. Eric Sprott's buying gold and selling equities, including Cdn banks. - via Financialpost.com

call me ahab said...

. . .also- bought some SDS into the close- $33.60-

I was kind of thinking it was unlikely the market would post a strong positive print tomorrow-

maybe a bit green in the morning and negative by close-

but who knows

Anonymous said...

Printed Yen has to find a home some where in this world, just like the U$D.

"Japan's core consumer prices fell to 1.5%". Marketwatch.com.

Carry on!

call me ahab said...

and some interesting news-

Ford Said to Plan End of Mercury After Seven Decades

damn- I wanted one of those Mercury models- whatever it was called- lol

mcHAPPY said...

I have been playing with some numbers and here is my gameplan for tomorrow following the sage words of "plan your trade/trade your plan":

A = 1090.75-1040.78=49.97
B = 1065.69
C = A where 1065.69+49.97=1115.66

Within C:
wave 1 1095.14-1065.69=29.45
wave 2 ended 1088.85
wave 3 underway:
i=1098.40-1088.85=9.55
ii=1098.40-1094.28=4.12 (.382 retrace was 1094.75)
iii=1.618 of i=1109.7
iv=.382 of iii=1103.81
v=1113.36

wave 4= .382 wave 3 (9.36) = 1104

If A=C, C ends at 1115.66 and wave 5 is 11.66 to end at 1115.66

Invalidation points:
1) a break of 1094.28 early (i.e. 2 cannot retrace farther than start of 1),
2) if market strength to end the day continues at the open a break of 1098.40 before a final fifth wave to end 3 (i.e. 4 cannot retrace in to 1).
3) after a run to 1110 range any fall below 1095.14 (i.e. 4 cannot retrace in to 1).

*Fingers crossed*

Good luck tomorrow everyone.

Nic said...

GL McHappy
Tomorrow might be low liquidity and quite ugly chop. I really do think a lot of big money players are already in the Hamptons.

mcHAPPY said...

@Nic

Thanks. I do have an alternate count that takes us to 1148. However, I'll concentrate on one at a time until proven otherwise - and most likely it will!

AmenRa said...

The main traders are in the Hamptons. The apprentices are running the show tomorrow. Their only job is to not let it get out of hand.

Andy T said...

It's been difficult to ignore the inverted h&s bottom on the SP futures which targets 1140's....which is coincidentally enough the 61.8% retrace....

That nice hammer bottom a few days ago was the warning shot to bears pressing the bets....

Overall I remain bearish and little short here...playing with house money now. However, it should be clear that 1140s looks like a distinct probability at this point.

Keep your powder dry in order to unleash the hounds in the 1140s....

CV said...

Off the "trading" topic...

Tonight I'm flipping around watching TV and seeing this friggin "Don't Ask Don't Tell" thing get pushed thru Congress...

Frankly - I don't really care one way or another... (But why it does get my attention is because it's #500 in the BILLION things about the behavior of people in this country that's just annoying as hell)...

Another "thing" in a long line of "things" that supports the old addage

"The SQUEAKY WHEEL gets the oil"... So if you want your 15 minutes of fame, just be squeaky!

AmenRa said...

Andy T

I still think there is weakness because we are still far below the weekly 3LB mid. The weekly 3LB reversal is not even a thought right now. But it's EOM and is usually a bullish period. So I'm not sweating the market.

Nic said...

Remember when Dubai debt was enough to freak the market. Now it barely gets a mention:
Dubai fears reignite on $1.25bn debt payment delay

We are drowning in debt ...

karen said...

Good evening! well, not if i look at the futures.. but my thin crust pizza was delicious and I'm really enjoying my zin.. Andy, I take it you didn't like Kinny & Horne!

karen said...

Nic, you are not trying to spoil the party are you : )

McFearless said...

AT,

Suppose this is easier to ask but what are you using as your top to come up with 1140's as the 61.8 retrace, if you use the five down from how some are labeling the 2 top it's 1120's.

Lot of people talking about that H&S, feels like we've been down that road before, but it's so clear we can't ignore it.

McFearless said...

nevermind AT, just read your e-mail.

DL said...

Ugly chop can be a good thing.

karen said...

the wind has changed on the futures..
pleasant dreams, everyone!

Nic said...

Jesse is a bit of a serious read tonight:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

karen said...

when you contrast what he is saying with the alarming arise of popular television and gossip site viewing.. we do live in frightening times.

Nic said...

CV
Time to bring out Madonna's "Holiday" song

mcHAPPY said...

Actually, looking at my count above. I am not liking it. The wave 2 (1095.14-1088.65) was not long enough. We could be in a 5 of wave 1 of C. This would most definitely push us up in to the nether regions of 1140's. I guess we are in wait and see mode.

karen said...

Ben, see what JCG did this quarter?

J. Crew Group Inc.'s (JCG) fiscal first-quarter earnings more than doubled as the retailer benefited from decreased markdowns and promotional selling.

The retailer's results beat its previous estimate and it also raised its guidance for the full year to earnings of $2.35 to $2.45 a share, compared with its previous view of $2.20 to $2.30. Analysts were projecting $2.34 a share.

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