AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Bearish long day. Could be bearish harami (but 2nd body should be smaller). Held 1151.86 (fibo .0557). Still may test 1177.84 (fibo .0344). Midpoint is above 10 SMA. Tested the 55 SMA and failed. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1073.60). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.

Bullish short day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price has been broken (91.80 is next). Bucky has been working out. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 83.30.

Bullish short day. Possible hammer. Fear of the one week anniversary. Tested the 14.6% retrace and passed. No daily 3LB changes. Still above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).

Spinning top day (again). Possible bearish harami (but 1st day is too small). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes.

BANZAI!!! Bearish short day. The EU bailout blowup has blown away the paper money. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 8x). Fibo level of 1.2935 is resistance. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3005.

Dark cloud cover day. Still above the 50% retrace. Closed back below the 144 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.

Dark cloud cover day. Major storm brewing. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Tested but never closed the gap. No daily 3LB changes.

Bearish long day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Closed below 55 SMA. Rising wedge apex coming soon. No daily 3LB changes.


CV said...

Thanks Ra

...from other thread...


CV thinks we're "going down" tomorrow...

Not necessarily on the OPEN (50-50 on that)... But I think todays action opens the floodgates and says this "correction is going to be AT LEAST 21 days (so that takes you to May 25th - Tuesday after OPEX)...

I'm pegging the 200SMA (down in the 1070's, I think)...

Where is LB?

The 30 year wasn't taken down with much "verve"

The $16 billion 30 Year bond came in at 4.49%, a 3 bps tail to WI.

AmenRa said...


That or Tuesday the 18th (the 8th day) and the following Tuesday the 25th (the 13th day) from "flash crash" will have implications.

CV said...


I'll go along with that...

Art Cashin likes to talk about "Thursday-Tuesday" events...

If you ask me, despite 113 points, it seemed like kind of a "yawner"... Nevertheless, it DID sell off, and it did put (what looks to be) a wave peak in (thus far)...

So perhaps next Tuesday would be UP???

It'll be mid-OPEX week (perfect time for shenanigans)... Bid 'em all back up to cover the strikes by next Friday...

25th? mass dumpage...

After that, though, they can all start sifting through the carnage and gear up for the last 5 weeks to make their quarters...

...and the band played on!

AmenRa said...


I believe the idea is to keep the market flat to higher until the end of 2Q. Then enjoy the summer in a non extradition country.

karen said...

just quickly before i run out again:

LB's bear cave does not have internet and something is up with his laptop that he can't post on blogspot.. that is all I know..

I'm in the down tomorrow camp, too!

AmenRa said...

Some additional fibo levels for Euro before 1.1571 is hit: 0.1855= 1.2336, 0.2058= 1.2028

AmenRa said...


CV said...


How many FIBO levels before it goes to ZERO? :-)

CV said...

Jump u f'ers!

Anonymous said...

College for all? Experts say not necessarily

I love this debate- and I know BinT disagrees w/ me- but- at least now many are coming to my way of thinking- and as I have said before- I have a degree- in finance- but so what? I have met too many people- including my own father w/ a 9th grade education- who are incredibly bright and learned- and smarter than many college educated people I meet- many of whom go to college for all the wrong reasons- as if that alone makes you successful

Anonymous said...

@ Ahab, re 8:12 -Collage degree doesn't make you smarter!

My father is also a perfect example. While all of his siblings went to universities in Canada, my father stayed behind at the farm to help his father( in India). He has no formal education. When we immigrated to Canada, my father had $20 in his pocket and my uncles' addresses. Within 5 years of his arrival, he bought his first business, a farm. He sold that farm in 1998 for a million( BTW if he had held on to it, it would be worth $4 million today.

Not so shabby for someone who has no formal education. BTW he has no problem conversing in English(second language).

Anonymous said...


my point exactly!

You can be a pretty damn smart and successful person w/o stepping one foot into a University-

but- the colleges are looking for $$$- and the dream is- once you step into their "hallowed halls"- your future is secured-


Anonymous said...

from CNBC-

"The U.S. economic recovery looks good on a spreadsheet, but convincing the man on the street about that will take months of solid improvement in the job market and some good-old, hearty American consumer spending."

so . . .uh . . .once people start spending- then the problem is over?

of course- lol

Nic said...

I know you guys are all thinking that we sink tomorrow but my contrarian indicator alert (Cramer) is flashing red.
I am thinking we may have a bit of a risk rally to end the week.

Nic said...

No one ever talks about Iraq much anymore.
If Iraq had never happened we would have 900 billion more to spend on the banksters ;)

Here are some scary statistics

AmenRa said...


What did I miss? Exactly what was Cramer screaming about today?

Nic said...

On Twitter he said
"rough rough day in the markets .. more tough sledding ahead, I am sad to say..."

PS - CV - On his show tonight he said to sell BIDU & buy YHOO (target $20-25)

karen said...

completely OT.. have you all heard of this sixth grader? i just watched the two clips as posted at nymag:

Nic, i'm still waiting for the scary statistics from your 10:29.

karen said...

Nic, don't take Cramer to heart.. you know what the say about blind pigs and acorns.. stopped clocks, too!

karen said...

Reality Check: Banks Ignore Delinquent Borrowers

Nic said...

Oh my link did not work for 10:29

Scary Iraq statistics here

McFearless said...


That is a little scary about Cramer, but I'm sort of with Karen here, he does get some calls right...., I think he's wildly bullish a few weeks ago when GS was announced, I'm sure when the McClellan gets to a certain point he'll go boo yah!

Silver marching toward $20.....damn silver.

72bat said...

coffee spill alert!
not beans, but hot water across the solar plexus - escaped mickey d level damage.
close call.
asking karen for any correlation of markets to coffee spill days

CV said...


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