Stick mastery ALWAYS draws an audience...
SPXBullish long day. Retested 1151.86 (fibo .0557) and passed. May now test 1177.84 (fibo .0344). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 89 SMA and passed. Completed morning star pattern. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.
DXYBullish short day (also confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint well above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price has held. Bucky needs help. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXDoji day. The 61.8% fibo ext (support) rules. Fear is Euro. Euro is fear. Closed below the fibo retrace of 23.6%. Tested the 14.6% retrace and passed. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes. Still above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).
EURUSDDoji day. Actually confirmed bullish harami (but it's weak). Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 5x). Fibo level of 1.2935 was tested and held strong. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.
JNKBearish short day. Gapped higher on open (to be filled asap). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested 144 SMA and failed. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.
SLVBearish short day. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Still above 21 SMA. Held the 76.4% retrace. Looks weak. No daily 3LB changes.
XRTBullish short day. Trading below 10 SMA. Rising wedge apex coming soon. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.
GSBearish long day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Tested previous low of 147.81 (failed) and back below the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Who has the ability to keep Goliath down?. No daily 3LB changes.
57 comments:
Every day is stranger than the last. THE DAILY BAIL....
We did a quick in and out in the risk department (fading last week's chaos) and departed with a small pile of wonga.
BUCKY showed surprising strength, now awaiting the next move.
The reformed broker had a competition to re-name the euro bazooka. My tame suggestion of the Trichet Put did not win. It is now known as the "Debt Baguette"
What a mess. Nothing in this package stops Greece defaulting, it looks like just another bankster bailout to me.
To paraphrase a famous quotation from another doomed conflict, in order to save the Euro, it became necessary to destroy it.
Nic @ 5:17
It may well be that, in the minds of the politicians, a default is nothing short of inevitable.
Just a matter of giving everyone a dose of morphine to ward off the pain (for now).
I got short some into the close, nothing big, small put positions on some individual names, we'll see. I did June contracts today.
McF,
I mostly go with options on SPY or QQQQ because of the liquidity.
. . . . . .
I remember on Friday, you were thinking outloud about buying some calls.
I'm guessing you were kicking yourself a bit today for not having gone through with it.
Probably another big trading range tomorrow.
I don't know if the SPX makes it to 1170 tomorrow or not, but if it does, it would probably be worth going short in a big way (at that level).
If the S&P makes it to 1180 tomorrow, go 200% short with everything you’ve got.
DL,
Didn't do it on Friday but yeah, I did think it out loud, I had some SSO as a hedge instead so it didn't work out all bad.
On another note, I've noticed that generally people seem to have this tendency to revert back to September/October 2008 when referring to the Greek bailouts and looking for the parallel in the US and drawing conclusions about the markets. I think this is a sign of social mood and its dangerous.
What I mean is that its clear now that people can look back at that time and realize that many great buys were missed in Sept/October on the long side, you didn't need to wait until March for all of the buys. I think people assume that's where we are, because things are so much "better" now. I think people are reverting back to that time now revealing an underlying bullish sentiment.
Lets not forget that it was back in 2007 we saw the first big bailout when the Treasury organized the SIV bailout as the STU reminded me tonight. Many bailouts followed, none of them changed the overall trend but they did provide some great trading opportunities.
Stay Ninja
Here you go traders, getting paid in P3?.......not so fast, this is likely only the start.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SEC-Exchanges-agree-in-apf-950357155.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/euro-blasts-higher-collapses-already.html
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/ecbs-weber-cautions-bond-purchases-pose.html
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/lock-limit-up-fannie-loses-13-billion.html
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/voices-of-reason-in-sea-of-insanity.html
@Ben
Fair to assume based on your link that following the trend becomes even more important. Trying to cash in on a quick 25% gain on a short ETF might get ki-boshed a few days later.
Or would you think all sells get revoked unless a) long, or b) for a loss.
sounds like they are still discussing details McH, but it doesn't matter, we'll have to keep up because there will be new rules as we go along....
@McF (7:30)
Rick Santelli was alluding to the same idea in an interview today... Not in so many words (but then again, "Santo" doesn't need as many words as a YAHOO to express something :-)...
Anyway - You've been on the same unwavering IDEA clear back to the first time I ever read a blog post by you...
Slo motion train wreck ain't it? :-)
@Amen
Let's go back to AUGUSTA (now that "The Players Championship" is concluded)...
Also... (from other thread)... "Jump you f'ers" (morningstar) LMAO!
Look at what has happened after bailouts during the past 2 years!
Also, too lazy to link up all those mish links but they are all good reading.
CV
Even though futures are currently down it may open lower and close higher because of the morning star. I hope not.
@Amen
Despite today, I'm worried that at any given moment, they could gun EUR-USD back to 1.30...
It ought to be short lived, but until it passes that TEST (and fails)... I'm sitting on my hands...
JMO
Just watched a commercial for Etrade that showed someone checking out a stock that was moving, verified it by checking analyst reports and then checked CNBS. They then fired off a trade. It was cool until they verified it by checking CNBS. GIB.
CV
Earlier today I noticed EURUSD sitting on 1.2935 longer than usual. Once it moved down from there it never looked back.
STU tonight says that data from Bespoke shows that the S&P had its 3rd largest opening in history. The other two came Sept and Oct 2008. One the night before TARP and the other when the 9 largest banks were forced to take capital injections.
China April Home Prices Defy Curbs With Record 12.8% Jump
But no bubble in China. Not a chance.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBvivTWTSx8Q&pos=3
McF @ 9:03
Yeah, and look at how those rallies worked out for those who bought into them.
Manny
But they're EMPTY...
It's good to remember how our economy and financial system really operate: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arcJksDgCOU&feature=related
I’m not a fan of Zachary Karabell at all.
But he’s got a well-written article in today’s WSJ about the status of the USD as the world’s reserve currency, how we got here, and how, in a roundabout way, it’s making matters worse from a long-term perspective.
Title: “The World's Dollar Drug”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704342604575222701291563876.html
DL
Oddly enough that article reminded me how the dollar was threatened when Saddam switched pricing for Iraq oil to Euros.
AR,
I am playing around with MA's and have copied the ones you use on the daily wrap.
Are there any that you find more appropriate for shorter term, aka intraday, candles?
There is a lot of noise in everything right now, just trying to treble all of it, any suggestions?
Thanks again for doing the wrap everyday.
I dont really follow the dont get paid in a P3 with the circuit breaker idea... I actually do think the system needs to be updated-
As to who's in charge of the "reform" and what their underlying motivations may in fact be, I cannot say.
I'm pretty sure all commodities in the futures markets have operated with a limit down/up structure successfully for an extended time, it only makes sense that stocks should be able to also.
In theory, there is no reason why a stock shouldnt be able to trade limit down or up for a few days in a row, if there is supply or demand to support it.
I realize it sounds naive in our current context, but surely there is some kind of structural reform that needs to take place:
uptick, limits, circuit breakers, a speed check for algo's at a specified vol threshold, etc...
Some kind of combination of all of them.
There are lots of ideas out there that make sense.
I thought that what Todd Harrison said about bid/ask spreads on options making a big statement about the health of the market was keen... didnt matter if you had puts last thur, the spreads were so wide you couldnt have traded, even if you could have!
That's system failure, not a rush of rabid sellers in some kind of capitulation moment...
We definitely need some rules updated.
Hopefully, the more intelligent minds of whoever is implementing the reform will realize this, and resist the temptation to run around on a witch hunt and place uniform blame on someone, anyone! (insert, shorts, or HFT, etc)
In a way I-Man is guilty of it too though, I often find myself saying "its the Fed's fault, they got us into this shit."
I think if the role of policy makers is just to create an ideal environment for a healthy market to operate, the market will take care of itself.
But the reform, whatever it may be, needs to check the kind of shenanigans we've seen pulled over the past few months, the consequences of which manifested last thursday.
Wow, I really went off on that... just feel strongly about it. The market is important.
Another way of asking-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIOXQp-YGpQ
AmenRa,
You know, I never fully understood why the Euro was so strong in the summer of 2008. I did suspect, though, that a lot of oil money was being stashed in that currency.
Michael Pettis on CNBC Asia right now...
For the record it's the only time I will watch CNBC.
Whatever Ra, we know you watch Mad Money.
Bob
For intraday I'd use shorter MA's i.e. 8, 13, 21.
I-Man
Bloomberg Asia starts at that time so Cramer loses.
I cut all that shit... I watch cnbc on mute for about 4 min while I'm getting dressed in the morning, just to see the futures and how "the others" are trading.
bob
addendum: The best way is to find the MA that captures the change in direction. Each equity has its own movement.
I bought the dip in 2008... and barely survived. It kept me from enjoying what I should have been enjoying... shorting wave 1.
Thanks AR,
Trying to dial all of that in now and learning that, some MA's work very well for some things, and not so well for others. Just looking for a starting point.
I got rid of my Directv last week. All it ever did was piss me off, commercials 10 times louder than the show, and more and more commercials.
Cable around here is even worse. I can get quite a few stations over the air with a regular antenna. The best is PBS, and their nature shows. They look great on HDTV, and are very soothing. If the TV is on for 1 hour around here that is a lot.
I do miss Linzie Janis on Bloomberg and have to call her up on the computer every once in a while and see how that wicked smile is doing.
Whats your take on EURUSD Bob?
Watching right now, its just sitting in the middle of any range I can generate. That and the threat of intervention don't make it a good entry point to me.
Long term, lower, short term, I can see a push up to 1.32.
I did just sell some GBP with a tight stop.
Yeah, cable looks like shit.
Nice read on money supply metrics: Money-Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take
AR, thanks for the link.
One thing I think I figured out over the past year is that it is not even the dollar that is the ultimate currency, it is the tbill. Tbills are what banks use to extinguish debt at the federal reserve, and they are the only thing that can be used. Negative spreads were, in my thinking, the banks getting priced out of the short term tbill market, but they still had to buy.
My limited understanding is that banks cannot show up to the fed at the end of a repo with cash, they have to have a tbill.
This line brought a chuckle:
"The plan is actually quite impressive," Deo said. "We only need €500 billion to guarantee borrowing for Spain and Portugal, we have €750 billion."
Futures down 104 today. Maybe they just don't make traders at GS like they used to...sometime or another J6P is gonna want to leave the carnival and no barker is gonna get him to play again...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-member-US-economy-needs-apf-2237317352.html?x=0&.v=2
Fed member: US economy needs to rely less on debt
....Well, dumbass, just raise rates! Sheeesh....
@Anon
That is definitely going to happen but not before all their chips are taken. Articles like this help fuel the optimism even in the face of turmoil like the last 5 trading days. The reality is there has been a bear market for 10 years and very few people recognize it.
Anon,
Forgot to mention, do you think GS are losing today? If markets are green you can bet they are long and if markets are red you can bet they are short. 100% accuracy in Q1.
Mish raises two valid points:
The important question at the moment is not the debate as to whether or not QE is a good idea, but whether or not the ECB can round up the votes to do it.
Already the Euro has given up 100% of its gains. Round trip currency moves of 3% each way, from 1.27 to 1.31 and back, in just over a day are not the norm to say the least. This could get very interesting soon enough.
People also seem to be forgetting that these LOANS from the ECB/EU/IMF/US are not being given with no strings attached. Budget and deficit cuts are (supposedly) needed. If there is any follow through on this, I would believe this to be extremely deflationary as the only spending occuring these days is government. The private sector is not along for the ride - except the banks who are only spending on themselves.
LOL - JPM did not through in a losing day in Q1 either. I'm truly SHOCKED.
And gold is closing in on a new record.
@mcHappy, GS and JPM - not losing a day trading - Picking each other's or J6P's pockets!
The HFT and market makers may have to prove they can control market moves today. Everyone is watching...
@anon
If they were picking each other's pockets that means for every trade one must win and one must lose. Both are winning therefore they are picking Johnny's pockets, mutual funds pockets, and pension pockets. The reach for yield in the last 6 months has been especially frightening.
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