Morning Audibles 5.11.10 - Red, Blue, or "Chill"?

Despite the heightened volatility in the markets these past 3 trading days or so (which included two weekend days), your humble blog host, CV, has been uncannily subdued in mood... Want answers? Well basically, I've decided that instead of taking one of these...

Blue Pill - Red Pill

I'd just take one of these (and be content to watch the fireworks for a bit)...



I was very, very, very lucky to be able to do this... CV had an SPXU position on (basically since March 5th, when the SPX took out the FIBO retrace back to 1150 after the January dip)... With two months of incessant grinding, it was my idea that that position might end up in the dumpster along with everyones SRS & FAZ positions from '09... Alas, in a 'miracle moment' during last Thursdays FLASH CRASH, that position (which had been 'deeply' red), flashed green to the tune of $800 semolians (beer money, I know, but it's better than losing for a thirsty boy like me)... Anyway, I somehow managed to get out of that position right then and there (which was a miracle in of itself)... The SPX was around 1074 at the time (which is even MORE a miracle as it was near the lows for the day)...

Anyway, since that time I've put on no new positions (on either side)... I still have some short SPY positions, but a lot of cash as well... So I've just been "chillin'"... But that doesn't mean things aren't on my mind... This is a short list:

- The FLASH CRASH... We're fairly confident now that it wasn't "fat fingered". But the media reporting did its work well, and I'd say most of the Johnny's out there are still convinced that that's what it was. Since they have the attention spans of the gnat population, they've already clicked the remote back to the regularly scheduled programming. Wrap it up and put it to bed. The "fat finger" is now in the dumpster along with JFK assassination & Area 51... Question is, could "the squid" have triggered this in a way to deflect attention from themselves...Did they Did they?

- $972B is just a "down payment" for bailing out the Euro Zone (trust me)... Consider your appetites "whetted"... They're just conditioning us for what's to come... As we all know, once you throw good money after bad, there is more to follow...

- I'm sure nobody needs convincing of that last bullet point, but if you do, I'll simply nominate the "latest"... Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance company operating under federal conservatorship, said it will seek $8.4 billion in aid from the U.S. Treasury Department after reporting its 11th-straight quarterly loss... Need I go further?

- Lest anyone get TOO COMFY with all these ideas, let me remind you... Governments bailed the banks out (using taxpayer money), now the banks are bailing the governments (who are insolvent largely because of the bank bailouts) - The banks themselves will net 1.5 billion a year in fees... More bonuses for bankers... Also, The IMF's piece of this thing is allegedly €286 billion... The US is 17% of that (or about $50 billion)... In order for that money to be "appropriated", it has to be "appropriated" (by Congress)... Expect "things" to be tacked on to that "Appropriations Bill"... GET READY TO BE HANDED THE TAX BILL FOR ALL OF THE ABOVE...

- Goldman Sachs, which makes more money from trading than any other Wall Street firm, also disclosed that its traders generated $100 million or more on 35 days during the first quarter and lost money on no days... DO I NEED TO COMMENT ON THIS?

- Warren Buffett Has "No Comment" On His Sale Of $30MM In MCO Shares Just After Moody's Wells Notice Receipt... Hmmm...

- On the subject of "comments", I thought both Bernanke and Geithner had said the crisis was behind us? (I'm too lazy to look these quotes up, but if someone has the right combination of boredom and "bloodhound" in them, they might look it up for extra credit)... Those quotes WILL come in handy some day...

- I kind of 'secretly' hope that the SPX makes it WAAAAY up there on a retest of the highs (personally - I have it pegged for around 1190 at the moment - but that's just a 'crude' guess)... In any case, it would make a HUGE sideways wedge (from 1044)... That's about a 180 point S&P range... Perhaps 'annoying', but hell, for TECHNICAL TRADERS, it might be a dream...

- World Cup is coming in a few weeks to South Africa... I've heard that 40,000 "prostitutes" have descended on the country... Gee - I suppose that that means that Wall St. has effectively SHUT DOWN until the end of July & will be working down there for pay... THE ALGOS REALLY ARE IN CHARGE! Good luck trading against them!

Oh, and finally... In my "browsing", I came across this "click pay" ad the other day...


LOL - All I can say is, something about it seems, well... APPROPRIATE...

260 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 260   Newer›   Newest»
McFearless said...

We were early with it late last year but the MCO short is probably still a good one.

Funny, none of the people in that 60 minutes special looked the guy in that mortgage rescue plan ad.

CV said...

@McF

I'm still trying to figure out if the guy in the photo is the one getting "saved" out of foreclosure, or INSTEAD, if he is representative of the condition a large percentage of Americans will be in after OBAMA gets through...

I'm leaning towards the latter...

call me ahab said...

wow-

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01632/Elena-Kagan_1632758c.jpg

the earrings and pearl necklace are a nice touch- lol

but she has a great "legal mind"-

so- as CV would say- she at least has that going for her(-:!!!

CV said...

@ahab

Speaking of "pills"...

It seems she (and Romer), took the UGLY PILLS very early on...

I doubt their prescriptions have run out either...

CV said...

@ahab

Ever notice how Obama seems to like to surround himself with ugly TOADS?

Romer, Summers, now this...

I suppose it makes his skinny dopey ass look better...

call me ahab said...

. . .and maybe she (Kagan) and Napolitano can start a girl's club-

where does Obama find these beauties?

I mean really- at least give me a little eye candy

Jesus P. Christ said...

That guy looks like he could be one of my relatives...

Disclosure: I'm long Love

Nic said...

Thanks for the money-metrics article Ra-Man

I have beginning to worry about the "debt baguette" bazooka. What if they announced a massive number to quiet the market but there actually is no money and (as usual) they have no intention of spending it? A sandwich with no filling.
EURUSD is so one sided its at risk from some nasty short squeezes.

CV said...

@JPC

"No time for dancin', or lovey-dovey, I ain't got time for that now"...
THE TALKING HEADS
LIFE DURING WARTIME

Nic said...


Good article about EURJPY and the carry trade unwind
(which Leftback has been saying for ages)

CV said...

@Nic (911)

That's to say NOTHING about the fact that there are supposed to be "strings attached" to these loans...

Like... AUSTERITY MEASURES to come... Ha! Good luck with that happening... Welcome to the world of Fannie Mae Eurozone...

call me ahab said...

. . .well as they say- beauty is only skin deep . .

but damn- c'mon already- there has to be few female government apparatchiks that are a bit better on the eyes

McFearless said...

"but there actually is no money"

Of course there is no money, we certainly don't have any here in the states where money is leveraged 100:1, all countries with central banks are in the same boat on this one.

Money is scarce....despite the inflationist claims.

Nic said...

You are right CV
and there is nothing to stop anyone defaulting ... once the ECB has bought all the banks toxic sovereign paper if they do buy

Nic said...

None of the Emperor's have any clothes then, McF

McFearless said...

well, CAT is going to open lower for sure, lets see what these puts have in store for me today....

McFearless said...

Nic,

they are all completely bare, lol! The fact that there is no "money" is central to my entire big picture investment thesis.

CV said...

I'm going to tie in about the last 5 comments...

@ahab

You'd think with propensity to fill Washington DC with ex-Goldman-ites, that they have some "hotties" walking around the corridors that they could send Washington's way...

and with that in mind...

Get them down there, AND THEN let's see if the Emperor has no clothes on...

OK, now that those concepts are tidied up, we can move on...

CV said...

@MCF

CV predicts that the market will close GREEN today...

McFearless said...

I remember the last time a lot of companies started doing this:

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/massey-energy-announces-re-initiation-of-share-repurchases,1293102.shtml


It's strange, they all hated their own stocks at the lows.....

AmenRa said...

CV

Unfortunately it has to in order to keep the SEC at bay. Another market dive like last Thursday will guarantee HFT gets knocked out.

CV said...

@MCF (9:31)

"Sell 'em Lloyd"... "Buy 'em Aubrey" (on margin) - LOL

AmenRa said...

Ben

I always thought it was better to do a repurchase when the stock was at its low. It's better for the company. The stock sellers just want out.

CV said...

@Amen

Yeah - I figure about 1139-1143... Then UP WE GO...

McFearless said...

Ra,

sure, but very few companies do it that way. Remember how many were buying shares in 2007?

CV said...

@Amen @Ben

Frankly, I doubt its much of an issue with CEO's...

Think of it this way... If you're a CEO, one of your TOP PRIORITIES is cash flow...

At the "bottom", you're scared s***less of not having sufficient cash flow (therefore you're not doing stock buybacks)...

At the top (you may have some spare cash, but can't see clear to do capital expenditures)... You have two choices...

- pay dividends
- buy some stock

It's NOT a trading thing...

Nic said...

Off topic but

For labrador lovers everywhere

McFearless said...

C,

At all the tops the last decade it's been more about credit flow than cash flow...I think they are just herding like everyone else does, to get a board to approve it likely means the trend has to be entrenched for quite some time so that by the time they act on it, it is almost over. Just like the government.

Pay Dividends?

lol, I get all mine from HY Muni's (snark)

karen said...

Morning! today gold is making the move i expected yesterday.. had to celebrate a friend's birthday last night so am a bit fuzzy ..

AmenRa said...

I still view stock buybacks as an indication of weak organic growth. Usually used to game earnings.

call me ahab said...

"More Financial Crises Coming Thanks to Global "Wall of Liquidity," Roubini Says"

seems to me that it is common sense alone that would make a person come to that conclusion-

world governments on the other hand- that's another story-

the banks love it obviously- all upside- reward w/ no risk-

but what does that even mean- should I feel like poker playing stud if I know before hand that everyone else will fold?

McFearless said...

Ra,

yes, good observation, hence part of the reason the earnings peak in 07 was nonsense...among many others, that's why the timing of some of these starting now is funny to me.

CV said...

And if you ask me... The "line" that the MSM keeps feeding everyone that a CEO is out there to "defend his company's SHARE PRICE" is a load of hogwash...

A CEO is there to keep his company solvent... There ARE exceptions to the case but I'd basically classify then 3 ways...

1. Big DOW companies (like Exxon, P&G, or MMM - who actually manufacture something) don't give a rats ass about share price... Since 1982 (the initiation of 401K's) there is a monthly stream of inflow that is FORCED to buy their stock... Since 1999 (Glass Steagall & all of Clintons infinite wisdom), the ante got ramped up when IB's levered that uptake to the "n"th degree... In these cases, if you're a CEO, you just try NOT TO RUN YOUR COMPANY INTO THE GROUND (and keep "vesting" your shares for many years)...

2. You're a dot.com, or an IB... Sure - your "stock price" is based on some kind of "faux performance"... These are they types of "CEO'S" that might be getting their hands dirty in INSIDER buying & SELLING... They hope they don't wind up in jail in the process...

3. All the rest are "pe-ons"... When you take a job, there are two scenarios...

a) The company is "doomed" from the start (you're the captain of the Titanic - you're just collecting a check until the next opportunity comes along)

b) You're trying to "springborad" the opportunity into a better one for yourself (padding your resume)

In either case, you hardly give a rats ass about share price... Unless you are TRULY a criminal at heart...

Bottom line? The idea of "CEO's & share prices is overhyped and not really understood in practice...

CV said...

@Amen

"I still view stock buybacks as an indication of weak organic growth."

and DEFINITELY that too...

McFearless said...

If we are in a second wave then this looks more like a B wave and we'll have a C wave up here and a chance to short again. the thing that worries me about this idea of 1190 is that gap just above....do we really think that will stay open?

call me ahab said...

a ZH headline at its finest-

"Brother, Can You Spare A Trillion"

also-

regarding share buybacks- as b22 pointed out- that was all the rage in 2007-

a winning strategy to get the share prices to go up- whatever that means in the end

Anonymous said...

swhc?

karen said...

Finding Capitulation with the McClellan Oscillator and a bit about Lowry's 90-90 days.

call me ahab said...

"The idea of "CEO's & share prices is overhyped and not really understood in practice..."

amen

CV said...

@ahab

Share buyback in 2007 = Analyst estimates of S&P EPS (for 2008) in the $90+ strata... Along with, NOT understanding the depths of the housing crisis, & Bernanke telling everyone that "subprime was contained"...

So you're a CEO, selling products to people doing equity extractions... you have spare cash... you put it into play buying back shares... Simple as that...

ENTER IB's... To them, it's "distribution city"... They can use whatever amount of LEVERAGE they wanted to SELL AT THE HIGHEST BID...

Used car salesman... See a desperate customer... Are they going to haggle on the price or the terms?

Result? Equity prices weren't going up BECAUSE of the buybacks (or announcements)... They were going up because the IB's KNEW that there was cash out there to be put to use that way... Make them pay top dollar for it...

Lesson learned...

Basically, they were BUYING AT THE TOP (because they "forced" the top - by announcing they were buying)...

Corporate JOHNNYS

karen said...

wonder if today will be another no/low bid day.. i mean, who buys yesterday's rise?

call me ahab said...

. . .and can anyone look at GS and JP Morgan's numbers- zero losses for an entire quarter- and conclude they are the "smartest" men in a room?

all upside and no risk- the pay not commensurate w/ the challenge-

more like "well dressed" thieves in my book

Mannwich said...

So much for "saving" the Euro. Bought one day anyway. Heckuva job guys.

McFearless said...

Well, I covered that CAT put already. Decent little trade, +18%, I think I can get a better price in a day or two.

so, like the Terminator

I'll be back.

CV said...

@karen (10:07)

"who buys yesterday's rise?"

Answer: Lloyd & Jamies algos... With your tax dollars...

call me ahab said...

CV @ 10:05-

good observation

Mannwich said...

The modern big corporate CEO's "job" today is to game everything so as to be able to loot as much of that "cash flow" from their company during (and in many cases, even after) their tenures at their firms. Nothing more. Nothing less.

I-Man said...

Anon @ 9:58

I-Man likes the look of that ticker...

CV said...

@ahab

"zero losses for an entire quarter- and conclude they are the "smartest" men in a room"

Frankly - I'd be surprised if they DID have any LOSS days...

When you ARE the market, you can have it end each day at the level you desire to book a profit...

Hell, if you find yourself DOWN at 3:30? Just put a bid under everything until you go green...

CV said...

...or just pump it all into Citi, AIG, FNM, & ABK until the aggregate turns green...

piece of cake...

CV said...

@Manny

"The modern big corporate CEO's "job" today is to game everything so as to be able to loot as much of that "cash flow" from their company during (and in many cases, even after) their tenures at their firms."

Hardly worked for Hank Greenberg

karen said...

"In the mother of all ironies, traders playing a capitulation low on Thursday may be hoist by their own fat finger: the bullish blather that "this was all a glitch!" may mean the normal capitulation by the bears did not occur. This meme is well explored here and here by Trader's Narrative, a site with penetrating debunking of popular fancies in the market, which concludes: "according to the McClellan Oscillator, the market will make a significant low later this week.""

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/05/we-have-begun-the-endgame-of-greenspans-experiemt-with-history.html

McFearless said...

We have no history really of days like yesterday, third largest open in S&P history.

on 9/19/08 we had one huge one and then another on 10/13/08. S&P close on 9/19 was 1255, then closed at 1,003 on 10/13.

if the trend is down that's where we are going...

McFearless said...

AT did some chart work on Smith and Wesson, should go back and take a look at that.

Mannwich said...

Bingo, cv. And countless others. It's all bullshit. Any rational person knows it too.

CV said...

@karen @McF

Frankly, I'd wait until Thursday (day 13)... We're on DAY 11 right now...

But that's just me...

Nic said...

Thanks Karen
I love that blog and I had forgotten it

McFearless said...

check out silver today....and like Karen said...gold as well.

call me ahab said...

interesting little conspiracy theory here-

"Did Nassim Taleb Cause Thursday's Market Crash?"

I-Man said...

Yeah, that was a good article, K... tons of links in there to kill time with...

The link to the article about the McClellan Osc was good too.

Leftback said...

Karen,

Any progress getting filled to your satisfaction?
(Talking short ETF orders here, obviously..)

Mannwich said...

@ahab: I HIGHLY doubt that.

Mannwich said...

@lb: Red card.

I-Man said...

The I has to buckle down and get some work done, in prep for his "STAYCATION" which begins on Thursday...

I-Man loves a good week off from indentured servitude at "insert favorite TARP bank here."

call me ahab said...

and assuming the schmoes are Elmer Fudd and the banks are Bugs Bunny-

here is something I would like to see- lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwPRRSiUWzQ

McFearless said...

lol ahab, that's laughable, dude had a failed hedge fund I doubt people watch his moves that closely. No one person caused the crash, absolutely ridiculous.

All they do in that article is describe what happens when people herd and react on emotion....no conspiracy there

AmenRa said...

ahab

Nice article. They'll come up with anything to keep the SEC and Congress out of HFT. Now Taleb does use oom puts. I wonder how much he made on the Thursday move...

Mannwich said...

It's been said before here by many - the market's now a GIANT game of "chicken". This will happen again, probably sooner than people think.

call me ahab said...

alright-

gotta roll out- check out that Fudd/Bugs clip-

it's hysterical-

later

I-Man said...

McF:

Check "Trilla" by Rick Ross, think you'll like some of those tracks.

McFearless said...

I remember quite well the McClellan busting Cramer in 2008, I'll see if I can find the clip.

That site has it right, people are going to get washed out trying to use the last 20 years when judging tech indicators in P3. P3 isn't "normal".

McFearless said...

"Now Taleb does use oom puts. I wonder how much he made on the Thursday move..."

do you really think he was able to cover? Has anyone confirmed anyone covering any huge shorts on Thursday? Taleb is not RenTech, did he even have the power to sell on thursday at the lows?

CV said...

@ahab

That's BS (Taleb)...

When we all know, in our heart of hearts that it was Col. Mustard in the KITCHEN with a KNIFE

What's taking the SEC so long?

Mannwich said...

I personally think it was MacGruber who caused it.

AmenRa said...

Ben

If he was using trailing stops he might have. Doesn't mean he gets out at the lows but he'll catch a majority of the move.

McFearless said...

lol, I'm with Manny, it had to have been MacGruber, with a paperclip and some gum.

McFearless said...

Ra,

perhaps, and then I suppose the follow up question is did his big win make of for all of his losses. The Black Swan was an interesting book, but that guy is a dreadful trader.

Nic said...

There was another fat finger on the grassy knoll

Nic said...

Who knew Black Swans had fat fingers even

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY is avoiding the markets today... a little scared so to avoid doing anything rash I am avoiding. Have a good day.

Mannwich said...

@Nic: Even American Black Swans are fat these days. Even their "fingers".

Leftback said...

We are going to sit on our Phat Phingers today.

Manny, are you sure that was a red card - not a yellow with a sort of "one more peep out of you and it's the showers, mate"?

Mannwich said...

Nope, lb. Directly to red for you. Hit the showers, mate. ;-)

McFearless said...

Euro....uh oh.

Anonymous said...

@McF

Well if it WAS MacGruber, we KNOW it WASN'T with an old bucket filled with bum sperm... (cause in the video - the guy refused to pass it to him)... lol

CV said...

@LB

oooh... At this point in time, that takes you out of the first two games of WORLD CUP...

Mannwich said...

@CV: Yes, LB ineligible for the big match vs. the U.S.

Leftback said...

No Way... I have just been named to the 30-man squad !!

CV said...

@LB

Well since you can't play... And you'll be in South Africa anyway... And there are presently 40,000 hookers descending upon the country...

There's only one thing left to do!

CV said...

LOOK! We just flashed green for a moment...

http://www.blogger.com/profile/07413614176800449643

CV said...

Wrong link...

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/05/morning-audibles-51110-red-blue-or.html?showComment=1273584265187#c7141500974440602733

AmenRa said...

CV

That was the Dow. Not confirmed by S&P.

AmenRa said...

Damn. Spoke too soon.

Nic said...

Brown resigning tonight. Sterling rallying for now. Until they realise it still could be a Liberal/Labour pact.

CV said...

@Amen

Don't you hate it when that happens? :-)

CV said...

@karen

I know YOU will get a kick out of this...

http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2010/05/randomwalkins-not-pinin-barclays-tis.html

CV said...

The REAL fat finger trade (good ol Barry Dunham at the keyboard)...

Debt Aid Package for Europe Took Nudge From Washington

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/11/business/global/11reconstruct.html

karen said...

CV, I saw that WSJ article someplace this morning and didn't even post it here because of the absurdity! but anon monetarist's lead-in was perfect! much like your morning audibles !!

karen said...

This day is giving me a headache!

May 11, 2010, 12:05 p.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:
Senate OK's one-time audit-the-Fed measure
By Ronald D. Orol
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A controversial measure requiring the government to conduct an unprecedented one-time audit of the Federal Reserve's economic crisis response programs was approved with overwhelming bipartisan support Tuesday by the Senate as part of sweeping bank reform legislation. The amendment also calls for releasing the names of institutions that received in total more than $2 trillion in loans from the central bank during the peak of the financial crisis. The provision received a vote of 96-0, with many lawmakers agreeing to back it following a compromise reached late Thursday. "This makes it clear that the Fed can no longer operate under the kind of secrecy it has been operating under," said Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., the measure's author.

Mannwich said...

Back to "normal" in the market I see. All the fat fingers have joined fat farms and are trimming down. "Biggest Fat Finger Loser" coming up next on NBC.

CV said...

@karen

I don't want to be Johnny Raincloud here... But my gosh...

While it's GREAT that CONgress has voted to get this out in the open (elections looming)... My FEAR is that the only result will be to shift the raping and pillaging to broad daylight...

Remember YEARS AGO, when the "image" of a burgaler was some kind of prowler with a mask on or nylon stocking over his head lurking about in the shadows of the night?

Nowadays, robberies occur in BROAD DAYLIGHT... A carjacker just walks up to you and steals your car at gunpoint (in front of 100 spectators who do NOTHING)...

Great, so the FED will now be exposed to the light...

Think people will be pissed? Not if they think their 401k's are going to take a hit...

On the contrary... When they realize that their 401k's would GO TO ZERO without Fed intervention (or that they would lose out on entitlement benefits)... THEY'LL BE LEADING THE CHEER... PRINT! PRINT! PRINT!...

When they are so deep into it that there is no going back (a point we've basically already reached)... That's when they get the switch flipped on them (and their 401k's get confiscated - and benefits stop anyway)...

BinT said...

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s government aims to bring the budget into surplus three years ahead of forecast, seeking a “solid buffer” against a European debt crisis that threatens to undermine the global recovery.

Treasurer Wayne Swan, releasing the annual budget yesterday in Canberra, estimated a A$1 billion ($900 million) surplus in 2012-13, from a A$40.8 billion deficit in the year to June 30, 2011. He said he’ll keep a 2 percent cap on spending growth until the surplus reaches 1 percent of gross domestic product.

The pledge reflects concern that investors will punish countries that fail to rein in deficits, which swelled during the world recession. Australia, whose public debt is projected to peak at 6.1 percent of GDP, is reaping the rewards of Chinese demand for its resources, and the surplus forecast is aided by a proposed “super” tax on miners.

...."debt at 6.1% of gdp"...hee hee hee hoo hoo hoo what a knee slapper. We can spend that on one failed car company! Fannie and Freddie must think these boys just fell off the turnip truck....couldn't we interest them in some underwater home loans or get Morgan Stanley to move their headquarters or something?

CV said...

I keep trying to tell you people...

...(and most, I'm sure, think CV wears a tinfoil hat)...

Buy yourselves farms, and learn how to become 'self sufficient'... That's wher this is going to end up... Within the span of most of your lifetimes...

CV said...

@BinTn

Great... The Aussies are so balanced and austere... Let THEM pay a 17% contribution to the IMF...

CV said...

While you weren't watching (or maybe you were)...

GLD printed an all time high today...

BinT said...

Great idea CV, I'll call my spiritual advisor in Washington, as soon as he's through nominating that ugly broad who's never been a judge, and let him know that there may be another sucker to possibly kick cans with...

sounds like that may dance to a different drummer, though. But my guy, he'll show them the error of their ways...

Nic said...


Andy Xie - Caixin, smart guy

DL said...

CV @ 12:28

At some point in the near future (next few weeks maybe), a long oil/short gold paired trade will pay off substantially if held for a few months.

Anonymous said...

Do I detect a misogynist theme here? She's no good if she isn't "cute"? Like Ahab is a prize?

DL said...

I'm thinking that, by the end of this week, we'll see the SPX drop at least as far down as the 1135 level.
1120 by Friday would also not surprise me.

karen said...

DL, I <3 you!

DL said...

Karen @12:46

I don't know what that symbol means ("<3"), but there are only a few possibilities.

CV said...

@BinT (12:29)

Rumor is, she's a lesbian...

So at least you won't have to worry about her hitting on you...

Or then again... Doc... Maybe you could do some fancy work on her and turn her into Rita Hayworth or something...

DL said...

actually, I found it.

Along with some other weird ones:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emoticons

CV said...

@Anon

"Anonymous said...
Do I detect a misogynist theme here? She's no good if she isn't "cute"?


Two responses...

1. I don't detect a "misogynist" theme... But I do detect an "anonymist" theme...

2. Nobody said she was NO GOOD... All I think anyone said was that she was uglier than the backside of a toad...

Lord John said...

So it looks like now we've wiped out last Thursday's closing point loss, as if it never happened.

CV said...

@DL

"I'm thinking that, by the end of this week, we'll see the SPX drop at least as far down as the 1135 level.
1120 by Friday would also not surprise me.


I'm sure that will EVENTUALLY happen (and, perhaps this week)...

After all, there's a friggin 11 handle gap on the SPY chart down there... If one thinks that's not going to get filled, they're outta their minds!

CV said...

@Lord John...

See TWSWB bailed EARLY!

Where's the HERO WORSHIP now?

Mannwich said...

@cv: Not to quibble but there are A LOT of ugly men in politics but hardly anyone ever says anything about their looks. Why is that? It IS a tad sexist, if you ask me........

After all, Antonin Scalia hit a few ugly branches when he fell of the tree as well but one never hears about his looks.

This only happens with women in power as a way to somehow delegitimize them, IMO.

CV said...

@DL

<3 either means:

1. She LOVES you
2. She thinks you're an asshat (whose fallen down drunk)...

CV said...

@Manny

No offense, but I could really care less...

As for me, no underlying thing... She's just butt ugly...

karen said...

DL, I'm always using that <3.. wondering what you thot it meant !!

As a matter of fact, I <3 Andy Xie, too!

BinT said...

Do I detect a misogynist theme here? She's no good if she isn't "cute"? Like Ahab is a prize?

Yes, you do. If she, has never been a judge, is a judicial activist of the nth degree, will make the Supreme Court an alumni association of only Harvard or Yale graduates, (not so subtle GS dig, ok?) then please don't be as homely as a mud fence.

I don't really care about her sexual proclivities or her skin color, but she is a neophyte (another dig about neophytes in Washington) in judging cases and an elistist. How about some Harry Truman or General Powell type people on the supreme court? Someone who graduated from Arizona? I am getting a little tired of these folks lately who are better than the average bubba. Bubbas and bubbettes are my type of people..

I-Man said...

Just thought I'd share some of my trading notes, might help navigate the chop... these types of diary entries are really helping me to stay centered, even though I'm not trading right now:


Here's my set up for my next short on the SPX, if you are interested... I had my friends in SPXU (the 3x short SPX etf) take in half of their positions at the close on friday, to reduce risk, and protect their profits from last week.

This is the plan for their re-entry:

Wait for SPX to print 1175, should happen today or tomorrow. Buy half of SPXU position at 1175. There is a chance the SPX could trade up to 1190 before the downtrend resumes, so we will save half the powder for that. Our maximum pain level is 1200 on the SPX... all shorts will be abandoned on a weekly close above that number.

If 1190 is not tagged, then you will look to add the other half position on the way down, on a bounce off 1150 support. If there is no bounce at 1150, then you will add that half on the breach of 1150.

Our downside target to close this trade is 1126. At that level we will either close half, or close out and regroup. My intermediate downside targets are much lower, but we will take the swings if we get them.

SPXU is the 3x inverse of the SP500, you can also apply this same strategy with SDS (2x) and SH (1x).

I prefer SPXU, because these are short term trades, with a stated target objective. I'd rather keep the 3x leverage, and reduce position size according to volatility to keep risk in check.

karen said...

I especially <3 Nic! LOL..

I refuse to get dragged into this discussion about someone's looks! And, it is impolite to call someone ugly.. their heart and mind may be beautiful which would override any and all physical characteristics.

BinT said...

Manny:
You are right. Scalia is butt ugly too. However the new girl's got him beat.

CV said...

@Manny

and as for "sexist"... Is it "sexist" if everyone calls Bush, or Bernanke, or Summers, "idiots" every day?

What about Obama?

Is anyone "racist" if they criticize him?

karen said...

I-Man, chop? chop? I'm seeing up and up.. not chop.. laughing.. but thank you for your thotful thots.

Mannwich said...

@cv: Neither could I. Just making an observation. My wife often helps me see things that we obtuse men often do not. ;-)

Mannwich said...

@cv: Clearly not the same thing. Women are in our culture judged far more on their looks as opposed to the merits of their talents, intelligence and accomplishments. It's a totally different thing and you know it. False argument on your part.

BinT said...

Karen as usual you are right. she is NOT ugly. But she is a challenge for my retinas.....

Mannwich said...

@BnT: But why is looks a factor for women in power but not for men in power? I think you know the answer to that question.

CV said...

@karen

Actually, you're right... It IS mean...

& it is furthermore COWARDLY to call someone (who you don't know) that from behing the curtain of a blog (so CV "apologizes")...

But in this world, where we are FORCE FED these policies (and politicians), and can do little about it (or are surrounded by ignorant & otherwise unmotivated people)... These are just SIMPLE WAYS to vent the pressure...

It's cheap medecine... And it CERTAINLY doesn't inflict as much damage on THEM as they're inflicting on us...

End of debate (by me)...

CV said...

medicine

BinT said...

Manny:

Actually, as you probably already know, looks are a factor for men as well. Tall men are usually get preference over short men. In dating and in business. Lean men are more likely to get the job than the fat applicant. These things have been studied by pop psychologists for years. Jack Elam always got the sidekick part to James Garner's lead.

BinT said...

Manny,

How many presidents have been totally bald?

CV said...

@Manny

& Jeff... Before you take the NEXT LOGICAL STEP (and make the argument of - "Well, you know NOTHING ABOUT this nominee - How can you PREJUDGE here)...

My answer?

Name me a "nominee" from Obama that has worked out thus far... Geithner? Summers? Holder? Yellen?

Best case? Odds suggest F-A-I-L (I'm not talking about getting the post - I'm talking about being an effective person for the job)...

Obama, remember, doesn't have the "life experience" of having to decide when the chocolate & vanilla machines at the Dairy Queen needed maintenance...

Nic said...

"karen said...
I refuse to get dragged into this discussion about someone's looks! And, it is impolite to call someone ugly.. their heart and mind may be beautiful which would override any and all physical characteristics."

X 100
I <3 Karen

CV said...

@Bruce in Tn

The only two BALD MEN I can think of immediately are:

- Lloyd Blankfeind
- Dr. Evil

CV said...

@Nic

I already apologized...

I'm just "lashing back" at society here... :-P

I-Man said...

Thank Jah the womenfolk are here to keep us well mannered...

CV said...

...in my boredom

Mannwich said...

I knew you guys would try to defend the indefensible. Of course looks are a factor but men aren't derided for their less than photogenic looks anywhere near as much as women are. And you know it. Let's move on, please.

In fact, when she was selected, I predicted in my mind that we'd hear these kinds of comments. And, of course, I was right. It's just not classy or kind, IMO.

BinT said...

Bingo, CV, as far as I know, the hairy bubba always gets the presidential job. If you checked Zero, you get to co-sign an underwater mortgage as your prize..

CV said...

Besides... You don't think we're being SERIOUS here...

It's just comic relief for crying out loud!

McFearless said...

Did someone just call me ugly?

:)

CV said...

@McF

No... but keep losing that hair and we surely will :-)

BinT said...

Actually, Manny, you know I could care less if she's ugly or not. Frankly, I just dislike what this administration is doing, and if she's a part of it, then I dislike her too. The looks, I don't care.....her record of aggressive elitist thinking, be it at Harvard, or her worship of Thurgood Marshall's goofiest ideas, or the entire idea of not appointing a good, liberal (if you want) appellate judge to the next higher rung...these are things that are wrong with this appointment.

Besides, she couldn't be uglier than Leftback...

Nic said...

Well this rally today is hardly inspiring is it?

CV said...

@manny

"It's just not classy or kind, IMO."

My reputation around the blogosphere couldn't get any WORSE no matter what I say...

"When you've got nothing - you've got nothing to lose"
(Bob Dylan)

Kind of a "liberating" emotion - actually...

Nic said...

I tend to <3 people's minds. I am not in love with Hugh Hendry for his looks.

I-Man said...

Now, this is one UGLY rally.

McFearless said...

lol C, I think it'll likely be all gone after P3. MJ was bald, seemed to work out ok for him, but yeah, I'll probably never get to be President then. Darn.

Nic,

agreed, pretty slow day, nothing really jumping out here.

CV said...

@Nic

Well this rally today is hardly inspiring is it?

I was wondering when we'd get back to talking about markets...

I was going to ask AMENRA... So far, yesterdays candle covered about 40 handles... Today? about 20 (half)...

Does that play into any "stick" configuration scenarios you know of?

BinT said...

Nic...obviously you are not totally up to date on the latest lingo:

This is not a rally. This is the pre-rally rally. Or the about-to-rally rally. Or the chance of a lifetime pre-rally opportunity rally.

CV said...

Sean Connery

BinT said...

Very cute, I-Man...

DL said...

Nic @ 1:25

The calm before the storm.

McFearless said...

put/call got up to 1.27 at 11 today, been dropping since...

BinT said...

Sean Connery made his money with his "little friend"....CV!

CV said...

@McF

Couldn't you see 1090-ish as an "A-B-C"?

Just asking...

I-Man said...

@ Nic

Familiar with this? Today is the first time I've seen this site:

http://www.bbh.com/fx/index.php/fx2/commentarypage/

Nic said...

So in October 1929, on a Thursday, the week before the big drop there was a flash crash, followed by a big rally.
Whodathunk it?

AmenRa said...

Morning f'ng star....

CV said...

@Bruce

Speaking of "beauty/ugly"... I was watching THE GREAT GATSBY on TV last night...

Lois Childs (Jordan Baker)... Now SHE's a beauty... She also played "Dr. Goodhead" in a James Bond movie...

AmenRa said...

Looks like we may get a close above the 55 SMA also.

DL said...

Nic @ 1:32

I see parallels between the recent flash crash, and the crash of '87.

In both cases, the computers did a lot of the thinking.

Nic said...

I-Man
BBH have some very good resources, yeah.

BinT said...

Actually CV, I probably fall into the women's lib category. Most of the women I know in the medical field make better workers for the same job and take less risks than the men do. I think given what I've observed over the years, less testosterone makes a better leader.

I-Man said...

Thats a vault of good info... glad I found it.

Nic said...

I-Man
Mellon have good resources too
https://gm.bankofny.com/Research/

DL said...

B/T @ 1:41

I've often assumed that women physicians make better "general practitioners" than men.

But aren't men better in surgery (especially cardiovascular surgery)...?

I-Man said...

Thx amiga, you got all the hookups...

:)

Nic said...

The indices are rallying hard and crude has not bounced at all after a 1000pip drop. There must be some longs wondering what hit them. I know one firm of guys who are feeling some pain ...

I-Man said...

Big 1min gap just now...

1175.

BinT said...

DL:

As I man, sometimes it seems so. Men do work longer hours than their female counterparts. But I used to teach residents. Actually intelligence and being mentally nimble makes the best surgeon. Plodders tend to make mistakes....

Nic said...

Candles don't lie Ra-Man

CV said...

FWIW

I always liked JANE SEYMOUR (Dr. Quinn Medicine Woman) better than SEAN CONNERY (Medicine Man)...

So see... I'm not "sexist" at all!

CV said...

@Nic

I gotta think that some of the oil spill action in the Gulf is clouding up the oil pits in some way...

McFearless said...

C,

sure it could play out that way, the wave two's in Primary 1 did fairly large retraces each time 78.6, etc.

What I don't like is that

1. There is a gap just above there that tells me it'll be hard to stop right there and

2. The whole failure right into the 61.8% on the DOW is suspect to me.

McFearless said...

"Men do work longer hours than their female counterparts."

I think this is true of bull markets, not bear markets though. Women should gain power and authority in the business place and in the household in the coming years. Men will generally desire this whether they realize it or not. I'll see if I can dig up some data over the weekend.

DL said...

Nic @ 1:46

Interesting observation.

Has that divergence ever signalled anything in the past?

CV said...

@mcF

Yeah I know what you're talking about... The "gap" is at 1197-1202 (just above)... Hell, for that matter, there's one above THAT at 1209-1211...

But the first one was just closing the 1190 gap (which is what I alluded to YESTERDAY as perhaps being a target)...

I'm just looking at the GAPS (and crude wave patterns - not exactly being a rocket scientist)...

Nic said...

DL
The whole crude bounced has lagged equities the past year in the scale of the bounce but in terms of correlation is normally pretty tight.
I think CV is right, the oil slick on the doorstep is not good news for the industry and there are likely some trapped longs too.

Nic said...

DL
I forgot to add the talk is of a nasty inventory build tomorrow too

BinT said...

Ben,

Male surgeons very significantly work more than women. Understandably so. Some don't return after getting pregnant, and most women don't feel as driven to work 10 hours days as some men do. Many women go into dermatology and fields that are more manageable like radiology...

DL said...

I fail to understand how the oil slick in the Gulf is affecting the global price of crude oil. A one-day glitch, maybe. But that is very old news at this point.

CV said...

Meanwhile, on the oil spill...

BUCKPASSING 101

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37079761/ns/us_news-gulf_oil_spill/

CV said...

@Nic

Now that El Nino is abating (and the hurricanes will be back in force)...

It's likely that there will be QUITE AN INVENTORY BUILD come late summer (when the hurricanes pick up the oil spill and dump it all over the SE USA)...

BinT said...

Hey Ben,

You think Grayson's Red Roof Inn speech has given strength to the fed audit movement? It looks now like it may happen....

CV said...

...and you all WONDER why I'm starting a fish farm...

Answer? NO FISH! (soon)

CV said...

@Bruce in Tennn

I think If he'd have satyed at a HOLIDAY INN EXPRESS, he'd stand a better chance...

Nic said...

DL
Last year every time Obama gave a speech about alternative energy crude fell and every time global demand estimates get revised down crude falls. I think this is for the same reasons, fear that a spill of this magnitude will drive *some* to alternate cleaner energy sources.

CV said...

@Nic (2:12)

You may be onto something there...

FWIW - I hold a few "penny" stock in my portfolio (Ironically - they're my LONGEST holdings - timewise - several years)...

They're all various ALTERNATIVE energy...

NO SOLAR - But some WIND & BIOMASS types...

Today, they're both POPPING... Last year, (when what you described was going on), my BIOMASS stock popped 1000% (whereby I whittled it down by about 95%)...

Anyway... I keep these on hand as a kind of reminder (they DO sort of serve as "canaries in the coalmine" - or should I say "ducks on the oil slick")...

DL said...

Nic @ 2:12

One-day moves don't mean much to me insofar as long-term "cause and effect" are concerned.

Regarding green energy, it'll take many, many years before we have any hope of replacing oil. Over the next 5 years or so, I would think that the debate over whether or not to grant more drilling leases in the Gulf will have little impact on the global price of oil.

My understanding is that global consumption is on the order of 80 million bls/day. So it would seem that the prospect of a million more or a million fewer barrels, five years in the future should have little impact on the spot price.

Nic said...

The Vitter amendment got voted down this morning:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/senators-once-again-show-they-only-work-fed-and-wall-street-vote-vitter-amendment-down-62-37

DL said...

FWIW, I really think that it'll pay to get short at the 1170 level.

Buy a few SPY puts, if nothing else.

I-Man said...

Well DL, they just gamed the first mice to sniff that cheese...

Maybe better luck for the seconds?

DL said...

I-Man,

I'm not saying that 1170 is the final top of the rally. I just think that if you short at 1170, you won't have to suffer the indignity of being in the red for very long.

McFearless said...

Bruce,

hard to say if Grayson got it going or what but I thought that was great. Did I see correctly there were no votes against?

More important though, what was it that actually passed? I haven't read anything about it yet.

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