A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
SPXBullish long day. Resolved previous doji day higher. Held 1151.86 (fibo .0557). Still may test 1177.84 (fibo .0344). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 55 SMA and passed (but not the 50 SMA). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1073.60). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.
DXYHanging man (with long lower shadow) day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price is holding. Bucky is getting weak at the knees. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXBearish short day. The ECB still have many sleepless nights ahead. Tested the 14.6% retrace and failed. No daily 3LB changes. Still above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).
GOLDSpinning top day. Now at historic new highs. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1197.30.
EURUSDSpinning top day. The EU bailout blowup (and it has been only 3 days). Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 7x). Fibo level of 1.2935 is resistance. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.
BIDUBullish long day. Back above 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Tested but never closed the gap. Had a 10:1 split (aka bait). No daily 3LB changes.
JNKBullish long day (stop laughing). Back above the 50% retrace. Closed above the 144 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.
LQDSpinning top day. Almost closed above the 55 EMA (4th try). Continues to make higher lows. No daily 3LB changes.
48 comments:
The market action during September/October 1998 might be worth considering. Following the initial decline, SPX rallied for nearly four weeks (beginning 9/1/98) before finally retesting the low.
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Moody’s Investors Service lowered 22 billion euros ($28 billion) of Greek bonds backed by loans to consumers and companies as the country adopts austerity measures to qualify for European aid, leaving the notes under review for further downgrades.
The cuts “were prompted by Moody’s expectations of significant pool performance deterioration due to the stressed economic environment in Greece as well as increased operational risk due to the weakened financial strength of Greek banks,” the New York-based ratings company said today in a statement.
wow-
surreal day indeed- this recovery meme has me in a bit of a tizzy-
I mean- really- the globe is throwing around trillions in debt-
and we can say- we're in recovery???? That's fucking nonsense-
WTF????
. . .truly- a Keynesian nightmare squared-
it's one thing to deficit spend to get things rolling along after sweet times when you're packing the money away-
but who was doing that- no-one-
so it's non-stop deficit spend-
will it ever turn the corner- never-
will it will require complete renunciation of all debt obligations in the end-
yes
From my observations on the DOW if 11,258 is to be considered the top, we would only have about 68 points or else P3 is delayed yet again.
Sh*tty.
Jasper Johns' flag sold for $29 million today. Over twice the estimate. He made several of these. He painted over a print of the flag. Not terribly challenging. He's still alive. Perhaps he will make more.
@PG
If I were him... I'd be focusing on his "white flag" creations...
But that's just me... :-)
@PG
Either that... Or he ought to get into doing some "Jolly Rogers"...
Preparing for the next phase, bidding up "real assets"
deflation first, inflation second
not that simple, but...
While we sit here wringing our hands over this or that ultra ETFs, the Smart Money is flowing into important rhinoceros cups:
http://www.christies.com/LotFinder/searchresults.aspx?intSaleID=22992#action=refine&intSaleID=22992&sid=72d22045-44ce-4ff5-bc65-2f0752a07541
Consider: a gigantic meteor made of gold could strike the earth tomorrow morning, rendering the metal as common as aluminum.
But the odds are very small that a meteor embossed with scads of tiny chinese peasants would survive impact in marketable condition.
@PG
To add to that... Monkeys could come flying out of someone's butt at any moment... :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7B6Qtp0Mjrk
prosciutto-
but really- it's cool and all- but anything only has value if it is perceived as valuable-
nothing against the rare Chinese carvings- but- in the end-
four leaf clovers are kind of rare- but where's the value in that?
Ahab,
I really want to thank you for being so up front with BR. Do you have Ken Fishers number by any chance? I think it's important that he knows that I, as an anonymous internet blogger, thinks that he is bat shit crazy.
I learned tonight that adults confront others. Also, it's important when helping someone understand how immature they are that you call them names, so I'll be doing that when I talk with Ken. Name calling is for adults only.
While you are at it, can you give me the contact information for:
Don luskin
Brian Wesbury
Jim Paulsen
Liz Ann Sonders
All mutual fund managers that run long only equity funds
oh also, how do I contact Robert Prechter direct, because I think some of his charts are crap?
Thanks in advance.
b22-
are you fucking kidding me?
WTF are you even talking about it?
Ahab,
Presumably these are Asian rhinoceroses, which are critically endangered. So, there's that. Plus, everyone knows that rhino horns are a potent aphrodisiac. Also, China has 1.2 billion citizens...that's a big market and it won't go away. Frankly, I don't see a downside here. As with any collecting endeavor, the crucial thing is to focus on the IMPORTANT rhinoceros cups.
lol Ahab,
nothing man.
ahab,
not directed toward you, now that I know Thor reads all the posts here every day, I'll make a point to achieve a douche bag comment toward him each day I post here.
@PG
China ought to just put a bid on the entire African subcontinent...
Then they could move their surplus population there and partake of all the RHINO endeavors they want...
I'm just thinking "economically" here...
I keep seeing people argue that gold is rising because people are diversifying into the Euro. While I think there is probably some truth to that, it's a dangerous assumption, which is that money has to go *somewhere resulting in a bid on something, but there is always the option of cash, that's the real danger of the deflation social mood.
DL,
6:34, I've seen a few comparisons to that time, the breadth looks similar, still sets up for a huge decline but many months out. Many differences of course so we'll see. I think quite a few people are keeping an eye on that scenario though.
Gold almost broke 1250. BB had his secretary bring him an extra set of depends.
If the IMF has to raise capital then will it sell some of its gold?
AmenRa @ 9:52
Sell gold? Probably not. But I suppose they could borrow against it (Bernanke or the ECB would be happy to lend them "funny money"), and then pay the money back several years from now when its worth a lot less. Everyone else is borrowing money, why not the IMF...?
Wow...
CV has been doing his usual "blog roundup" thing (as I tend to do in the evenings when I get back from the gym)...
It appears that there was quite a "dustup" late this afternoon over at TWSWB...
This THREAD in particular...
I gotta say... CV was one of the first on the blogosphere to respond to that thread (not over there - but here)...
The thread was posted at 12:30, and I posted this, here, at 12:49...
CV said...
TWSWB Making the case that this is a "typical" recovery...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/is-this-a-typical-economic-recovery/#more-55949
Typical recovery huh? (Is that why you went 100% cash last week?)...
May 12, 2010 12:49 PM
---
From my recollection, there had only been TWO comments on that thread at that point in time...
Then, I'm cruising along (this evening) and see all kinds of "brouhaha" (later comments)...
All kinds of stuff...
- Challenges hurled (mostly intelligent)
- Positions questioned (spirited, but within bounds)
- And, of course, the typical "REFEREE" action (where some milquetoast thinks he's the Rodney King of the blogosphere)...
- Even TWSWB jumped himself into bed, with, um... the milquetoast in question...
Gee, I thought I was the "Uni-bomber" (the one who causes KAOS)... Looks like I better start stepping up my game...
After all, it's pretty DULL publishing a "trading" oriented blog... Seems some prefer "The View" in the company of lapdogs...
DL
China would buy it without a second thought. The IMF is not a CB so the Fed can't set up a swap line. The IMF could find a way to increase our "contribution" which could give the Fed a free pass.
man I'm wondering if gold can blow off into the summer, that sounds ridiculous given the sentiment and my tendency to shy away from that but I'm wondering if it will parallel the type of sentiment of the markets since last fall.
silver seems to be on its own path in a lot of ways.
AmenRa,
"The IMF is not a C.B. so the Fed can't set up a swap line".
O.K., but the IMF could borrow from a group of banks, and the banks could borrow from the Fed or the ECB.
If there's a will, there's a way.
@McF @Amen @DL
Re: GOLD
Frankly, I don't see this as a "breakout" at all...
Technically, I admit, I may be proven WRONG by anyone who would consider a move to, say 1500, a breakout... I'd have a difficult time arguing with that assumption...
But keep it in perspective... Is a 20% move, (from 1250) parabolic?
The reason I say is because if the DOLLAR completes a "5" wave here, is there any reason NOT to own gold for a brief while?
Once again, it depends on your timeframe...
I don't view ANY of these moves in all this EURO-SOVEREIGN-CREDIT confluence to be anything more macro than temporary "flow dynamics" which move previous held notions into a new paradigm...
But I'm just the "Uni-bomber"... So don't listen to me...
@Uni-Bomber,
I really don't know about gold, but the dollar will be important to keep a very close eye on in the coming days/maybe weeks. If we get a decent looking count to the top that could set up for a decent near term short or a chance to accumulate for intermediate time frame.
I have been thinking that I am entirely too cautious with my ideas. I have embraced the new America. It is my creation, after all. Before I came, we banned cigarette advertising from television and radio. I have decided that since no one makes better decisions than I do, and that since one of three children is clinically obese, that starting June 1, all television and radio commercials of hamburgers, french fries, soft drinks, foods commonly called fast food....will be banned from broadcast.
I will let you know about further ideas as I have them...
Does everyone remember when the dollar was getting killed because China was going to switch to a global SDR basket featuring lots of Euros and Pounds. Silly the stories that can pop up when a trade is in full force.
Can't wait til that one comes back.
@McF
Of course I'm being ridiculous here (because I want to say "one thing is CERTAIN")... So let me phrase it another way...
The BOTTOM on the dollar many of us here anticipated, anticipated, were EARLY on, anticipated some more... You know the story...
But one thing WAS clear... When it turned, it was IMPULSIVE...
I think those are the kinds of signals we need to be looking out for here...
So as for gold... It'll probably end up TYPICAL... "Stairs UP... Elevator down"... If someone wants to PLAY there, be my guest...
Me? I LIKE sleeping at night...
ken fisher?
wtf...asshat
this guy is a (rich) moron...
C,
Yeah, I'm def. not trading gold here, I really just want to buy real stuff and store it overseas but I hold on to the idea I can get it in 3 digits. As I said early today, I hope I don't get left behind on this one...that's going to be a problem some time down the road.
Here's a thought, I don't know the ticker for the short gold etf but if the reality of the paper etf blows up I wonder how it all shakes out with the trades, if people on the other side really get to collect.
Tomorrow at 2:47PM EST the all clear will be given. That's if all hell doesn't break loose first. 2:48PM EST is the time of day I would not want to be short. The algos will be switched to aggressive buy mode.
@McF
I've thought about it and thought about it and thought about it...
Of course, ANYONE's ideas are "colored" by the assets they already hold (so it's relative)...
You know, that I hold a decent amount of PHYSICAL gold in another country (bought in the "threes" many moons ago)... So frankly - I hardly think about it (but I can understand the "dilemma" of someone NOT owning physical at this point in time)...
Frankly - I still think we'll see 3 digits in P3... So if I were WAITING, I'd wait for then...
As for "shorting" (and ANYTHING "paper", for that matter)... Wanna know my thoughts? Last week was an EYE OPENER... I'm convinced MORE THAN EVER that "shorts" will hardly get paid during P3 unless they are either...
- very small
- or take gains quickly (and leave potential profits on the table)...
In fact, it was HARDLY WORTH THE WAIT... IOW - "bulltards" did, on average, probably 3x better than BEARS will ever do on the "slope of hope" (assuming they CASH IN THEIR CHIPS at the proper moment)...
I'm REALLY more content to sit on cash THROUGHOUT P3... Ever aware of the VALUE of the cash held...
At some point in time (afterwards), that cash will be worthless...
I just try to buy whats VALUABLE with it now (and that DOESN'T mean "stocks", or "puts"... It means):
- Solar Energy panels
- Wind turbines
- Propane tanks
- Hardware & Tools
- Lumber
- Water containment vessels
- Land
- Food
- Seeds
get the picture?
@Amen
Why so cryptic? Spill it...
@Amen
& I'm not disagreeing with you...
I've AVOIDED being short here for 'respect' of this possibility...
OTOH - Tomorrow IS day 13/5
Indeed C, P3 will not be easy for shorts if it comes around.
Now this kid, he must be the coolest kid in his school:
http://new.music.yahoo.com/blogs/videogaga/39067/little-lord-gaga-greyson-michael-chances-paparazzi-is-a-web-sensation/
CV
We all know EVERYONE will be watching every single tick tomorrow. The feeling you have before a test if you didn't study.
p.s. since the time is AFTER the circuit breaker cut off time things could get interesting.
CV, whenever you comment, i just stare at the troll! not to be a tinfoiler, but whatever you do, do not buy gld except on a day trade.. i mean day..
if you can't buy physical, buy cef.. and in canada you can maybe buy one of sprott's offerings.. or the best of all franco nevada.. with my true love, Pierre Lassonde.. forget all those <3's i've expended over over males!
this was interesting:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEsAjYXlLuI
@karen
No plans... AT ALL... to buy GLD...
Just watchin & figurin' at this point...
CV has MOST of what he needs right at his fingertips...
The TROLL is just for "effect"...
Nude... for that matter...
& you might as well just stare at the foto... My words don't mean much anyway :-)
LOL! CV, naked is good.. glad you couldn't see me on the beach today..
Now, I cannot figure out in my wine soaked state how to email Nic from her blog.. what in the heck am i missing?
Article by John Taylor (in the Financial Times):
"Central banks are losing credibility"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eedbe85c-5d2a-11df-8373-00144feab49a.html
More on Gold:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Strange-News/Gold-Dispensing-ATM-Launched-In-Abu-Dhabi-Increasing-The-Stakes-In-The-Battle-For-Gulf-Glamour/Article/201005215630858?lpos=Strange_News_First_Home_Article_Teaser_Region_6&lid=ARTICLE_15630858_Gold_Dispensing_ATM_Launched_In_Abu_Dhabi_Increasing_The_Stakes_In_The_Battle_For_Gulf_Glamour
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/05/12/federal-budget-deficit-hits-time-high-april/?test=latestnews
"The federal budget deficit hit an all-time high for the month of April as government revenue fell sharply.
The Treasury Department said Wednesday the April deficit soared to $82.7 billion, the largest imbalance for that month on record. That was significantly higher than last year's April deficit of $20 billion and above the $30 billion deficit private economists had anticipated.
The government normally runs surpluses in April as millions of taxpayers file their income tax returns. However, income tax payments were down this April, reflecting the impact of the recession which has pushed millions of people out of work."
I noticed Malaysia tightened this morning. Seems to be the trend. Countries that export or have very low global labor costs are growing so fast they have to raise their interest rates. And we have an 83 billion dollar deficit during IRS month. People are not stupid. The mainstreet media may treat them that way, but I speak with ordinary folks every single day in the salt mine and they are well aware of the quandry we've been put in by our national and state governments. Spending simply must go down....no matter what happens on the income side of things.
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