A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
SPXBearish long day. Crushed 1151.86 (fibo .0557). Now it may test 1110.02 (fibo .09). Midpoint below 10 SMA. Tested the 89 SMA and failed. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1073.60). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.
DXYBullish long day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price has been broken (91.80 is next). Closed above the 76.4% retrace. Bucky has been working out. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 84.08.
VIXBullish long day. Fear is being long or short over the weekend. Tested the 23.6% retrace and failed. No daily 3LB changes. Still 28% above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).
GOLDDoji day (close enough. body s/b 5% or less). Acting like it's scared of 1250. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes.
EURUSDBearish LONG day. La-la-la-la-la-la-la (fat lady preparing to sing). Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 9x). Fibo level of 1.2935 is resistance. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.2827.
JNKBearish short day. Confirmed dark cloud cover. Now below the 50% retrace. Closed back below the 144 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes.
GSSpinning top day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Now below the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still getting kicked while down. No daily 3LB changes.
58 comments:
Ra,
thanks for the wrap. I thought this was interesting:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8Hay2VS1DQ4&pos=4
McF
CLO's are "backed by corporate loans" or in GS speak "If you're not with us then you're the enemy."
b22 and I-Man may find this interesting-
Holding Brokers To a Higher Standard
. . .but let me add- mortgage broker's- well we're as honest as old Abe Lincoln and as pure as the driven snow . . .
@ahab
So what's the deal?
Are you just a "poorboy on the unemployment line?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlVaC1DWrOs
CV (from the farm)
@ahab
So what's the deal?
Are you just a "poorboy on the unemployment line?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlVaC1DWrOs
CV (from the farm)
CV-
unfortunately- I wasn't fired-
karma's not with me- lol
@ahab
Karma...alas...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmcA9LIIXWw
CV-
no doubt-
where I work though- I come and go as I please- no structure whatsoever-
so it's cool in a way- if I bring in business- I survive- if not- I'm fired
Get yourself fired..
Live off of the Obama tit...
It's the NEW American way...
hmmmm-
not a bad idea-
I don't want to miss out- lol!!!!
Go to school (& have the government PAY for it)...
Obtain skills on how to become a "community organizer"...
That ought to lead you far!
This is what they might teach you there...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl0WwC9OcOI&feature=related
dude-
interesting video-
so- do these folks even know what they are talking about-
of course not-
a total show!
Thanks Karen (missed a quotation mark arrgghh).
Here it is again: Weekly 3LB Update for week ending 5/14/10
Great chart, AR! and now I've bookmarked your blog.. : )
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
The Growing Global Financial Snowball
...Nassim Taleb is not my favorite speaker, I think because he usually speaks in just small parts of his complete thought. Pressured speech, I think they refer to it as.
But I did think this is pretty much right on. That now that the die has been cast with Greece and Europe that western economies will be forced into balanced budgets. How do we in the USA have hyperinflation if the IMF is telling other developed countries to go on a diet? I guess I can see the scenario where this occurs, but it seems much more likely we follow the Greek rememdy....
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4196581/preparing-us-for-a-debt-crisis-/?playlist_id=87185#/v/4197036/the-growing-global-financial-snowball/?playlist_id=87185
Thanks Amen-Ra!
The "new" macro-man is posting on Saturdays! A treat.
Andy T
Sugar #11 formed a bullish harami (weekly chart) after having closed below its 233SMA. Time to keep an eye on it?
On the Waddell & Reed emini trade from last thursday...
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64D42W20100514
I-man loves it when the truth is just simple.
MF manager wigs out and goes short 75,000 emini's pretty much at the low and swamps the tape because the size of the trade is just insane, (and he's a dipshit for not knowing that,) causing the entire system to lock up.
It wasnt algos, HFT, GS, fat finger at Citi, or the iluminati, its just some dumbass MF manager making an ill advised hedge in a moment of pure terror (likely inspired by the scenes of greek riots splashed all across his cnbc screen sparking his fight or flight...)
Sounds alot better to me than anything else Ive heard.
Smart traders probably werent even trading at 2:32 - 3pm, when these trades started going off... 75 large is a shitload of eminis, from what I know. And if you start shorting like crazy at the low, of course there aint going to be any bids, dumbass.
GIB.
Should have just stuck to my Financial Times this morning and avoided google news... now I'm all worked up. lol.
@I
That probably also sounds a lot better than we have started P3.
On the same subject: does anyone think the top is in? I would be inclined to say yes based on wave structure off April 26.
Maybe the fibonocci number experts (CV and Ra) could back up any of the following:
.6 (3/5) and .625 (5/8) are fibonocci numbers according to my google search.
1220 was the .6 retracement off March '09 lows and 11304 was the .625 on the DOW.
Would these not fit the criteria for the end of P2?
My vote is the top is in.
FULL DISCLOSURE............
Karen you are popular at one of BR's posts - comment sections.
www,ritholtz.com.blog/2010/05/weekend-open-thread/#comments
Hi McHappy
0.618 is THE fibonacci number
wow-
anonymous posts- sometimes cool if they're funny- but usually it's to make a stab at someone-
way ridiculous- whenever I post- it's always me or some other username that everyone still knows is me-
I do that just to mix it up a little bit- and I say stupid things- angry things-
where sometimes I even apologize for being a total douche bag-
so I wish the anonymous posts at both andy t's spinoffs- refrain from attacking each other under an anonymous tag- but who knows- maybe I'm wrong- coming from elsewhere- but if I'm right-
beyond weak-
I prefer this blog- as I have said from the very beginning- because I thought a blog needs a "captain" running the show- just my opinion- and CV's interests and take on things are a bit closer to my own- however- the other blog has evolved w/ multiple posters- it has value- and I still check it out and post from time to time-
hopefully not in vain-
having said that- I do see that there appears to be much animosity from bergie's site to some who post here-
and- I'm not really sure why?
but can we push on? Step aside- and refrain from making anonymous posts- assuming what I am saying is even remotely close to the truth-
possible?
Hi Nic,
Yes, I know .618 is the ultimate. However, it would be extremely rare for the fibo number to be met exactly and turn down especially in this day and age.
Or is that .618 must be at least touched to be counted?
Either way, it is pretty close and the action from 1219 does not appear corrective IMO - for what my opinion is worth, of course.
(BTW I'm not replying snotty... I'm not sure if the tone comes across that way, but if it does, I apologize and I am not :)
@ahab,
Tend to agree with your comment about the two spin off sites. I find the other to be more fundamental and this one technical. I like both but lean more towards the technicals because bottom line: how can a guy as smart and well-thought out as Reosenberg be as consistently wrong in relation to the market performance. Even Prechter was uber bullish from end of February until August '09. There is most definitely value in fundamentals but there is too much coincidences to rule out the technical, fibo, and EW side.
As for the anon's, sometimes people just want attention and if it is not given that frustrates them even more. The high road usually prevails: think RP on Fast Money a few weeks ago :D
mchappy-
I guess my point is- why post anonymous? unless you are just trying to be funny- otherwise-
I'ts weak- and most folks who take that route wouldn't post under their normal username-
why? because they are weak and must revel in what they have said without anyone knowing it was them-
as I said- weak
Hi McH
No it doesn't have to be touched to be counted and often it pokes through and comes back or doesn't quite touch it. Ratio traders who use fibonacci alone will enter at the .618 level and have a stop behind the .782 usually (and target is the .382).
IMO the S&P has bounced off the 618 even if it hasn't actually kissed the figure. That's not to say we won't go back and revisit it but for me it is a rejection at that big fib level.
I-Man just lost $40 bucks in an hour playing poker... better stick to trading.
@ahab,
fwiw, I agree, I can't stand the Anon posts. If I'm going to get into it with somebody I'd at least like to know who it is, even if it's just a made up screen name.
@McHappy,
re: fibo.
These are not coincidence, The Golden Ratio (phi) is embedded in the fibonacci sequence.
the ratio of two successive Fibonacci numbers oscillates (being alternately greater or smaller) but comes closer and closer to Phi:
1/1 = 1.000000
2/1 = 2.000000
3/2 = 1.500000
5/3 = 1.666666
8/5 = 1.600000
13/8 = 1.625000
21/13 = 1.615385
34/21 = 1.619048
55/34 = 1.617647
89/55 = 1.618182
144/89 = 1.617978
377/233 = 1.618026
610/377 = 1.618037
987/610 = 1.618033
These tend to serve more as very accurate guideposts than they do exact targets. If you learn to apply ratio analysis then you can really put Elliott Wave to work for you.
check out pages 131-150 of "EWP"
Hi Karen
Today's NYT re home builders: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/business/16builder.html
And this :
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/banks-refuse-to-recognize-heloc-and-second-mortgage-losses/
BinT
I agree with you about Nassim Taleb on both counts. I found his Black Swan book a hard slog to read although very interesting and he is bang on about Europe.
Interesting this morning he tweeted:
"nntaleb
When individuals go bust, their debt don't transfer to their children; when states do, even the unborn is liable. Deficits are immoral."
Hey McHappy, it's all good for us up here in Canada right (not):
MISH
And finally the latest video to go viral on youtube. I am still watching, not sure if I agree with all of it:
Meltup
Greece makes their latest move:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greece-prepares-sue-wall-street
Nic,
From that video:
"Inflation is the last thing on most Americans minds"
I disagree of course...its the other type of flation that most people aren't thinking about.
@Nic re:Mish
Anyone who doubts there is not a housing bubble in Canada is a fool. While I am 99% confident of this, I have kept my rental properties as a hedge in case the inflationists are correct because all of my savings accounts (TFSA and RRSP) and trading accounts are short. If I am wrong on one of the above, the other will most definitely more than make up for the difference - I hope.
Maybe Ben can help me out here but if RP's count is correct and this is the start of P3, we should be below March '09 by the end of this year or early next. That is a lot of opportunity to short and make money before all hell really breaks loose.
Back to real estate in Canada, I also wonder if this is the start of P3 will people (for a short period) abandon the stock market and turn to real estate. My thoughts for this are because so many times I have heard these statements in the last year, "You can't lose in real estate." "They aren't making land anymore, you know." and other such comments. This thought may especially ring true from the slope of hope graphs MISH has shown in the past about housing prices in Japan and laying the US market on this graph where after a 10-20% decline people are being bombarded with, "It has never been a better time to buy!" This sounds a little familiar with the US now, don't you think? Of course, it is no better of a time to buy now than it was in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, or 2009. Obviously, Canadians are 5 years behind the US and will probably follow the same path because, remember!, it is different here, our banks are well capitalized, we don't run slush funds like Fannie and Freddie *cough*CMHC*cough*Central Bank of Canada*cough*, and other such nonsense that is sure to play out in the UK and Australia as well.
@Ben 9:04
All I can say is "WOW! The denying of responsibility continues with all parties involved." It is like watching a game of hot potato, except the potato is piles credit default swaps and derivatives portfolio's.
This gives me further hope the top is in.
@Nic 11:09
Even with the top in, we could quite possibly retrace all the way back to 1219. That would most definitely unleash one scary 3 of intermediate 1 of P3.
I love the fact that I said to someone yesterday, "you know we could break March '09 lows by the end of this year." They asked me if I was retarded in response.
I really enjoy the website A Part of NY. Here are some weekend links from the blog:
April 1930
The bear channel
What really happened on May 6th?
AndyT
In case you didn't see my comment during the week, I am sure you have noticed that the DXY count is spot on with you slide 3 from last week (bullish DXY count). That is some good charting my friend.
Mish on current tax and spend policies
Where are the tax revenues coming from to keep the 'recovery' going? Austerity measures and unemployment in Europe, unemployment and falling sales tax receipts at state level in US, property bubbles in UK, Canada, and Australia, and an overheating economy in China with property values down 20% over the last 1-2 months, increasing bank reserve ratio requirements, and inflation bordering on out of control. This is all deflationary and, as I'm sure all are aware, private industry around the world has cut back and spending and debt has been shifted to governments/public. If government spending dries up..... fill in the dots.
Mauldin's Update via TBP
My only disagreement with the article is the end when talking about currencies (EUR and GBP to parity with USD - most definitely) he mentions the JPY and it will likely fall. I think he is correct on this in a few years, however, between now and the fall of the YEN it should soar. It will be the final currency to collapse before the USD which is when we buy stocks and gold (2016).
It is extremely funny that the two most flawed currencies in the world are the ones people flock to in a crisis.
My goodness, another victim. Just couldn't run the country properly, so let's see who's to blame.(All know I am not a friend of the TBTF's...) It will come out that they have been in surplus for decades!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greek-leader-considers-action-apf-3405375447.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
ATHENS, Greece (AP) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou declared he is not ruling out taking legal action against U.S. investment banks for their role in creating the spiraling Greek debt crisis.
Both the Greek government and its citizens have blamed international banks for fanning the flames of the debt crisis with comments about Greece's likely default, actions that are causing the country's borrowing costs to soar.
McHappy:
I have reached the same conclusion...
Ben,
I'm sorry. You already posted the Greek story, and as usual you and I see it the same way. I never quite understood this thinking....it's as if Madoff, when finally caught said," Well, it wasn't my fault. We were all doing fine until some whistleblower stepped in...it must be his fault."
A once-in-a-lifetime, can’t-miss investment opportunity.
Bonds that will finance the building of more hotels in Abu Dhabi.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6t.5M9lZzMg&pos=6
What could possibly go wrong?
I'm becoming more convinced that Ritholtz is a socialist....at a minimum an East Coast liberal type....
Anon @ 3:35
A socialist who is registered as a Republican.
Nic, thanks for all the homework! I need to catch up, that is for sure..
Ahab, too much fun Friday night??!! I can't even remember what I did.. : )
McHap, 9:47
Keep in mind that time is least predictable when it comes to waves so I wouldn't say for sure how soon P3 goes where, if a P3 actually happens. It's like that saying AT has "if it can take longer for the wave pattern to correct/reveal itself, assume that it will"
it's wave form and price that are the most predictable elements of the wave structure.
@Ben
Yes I am learning. I took your advice and went through the best-of-traders-classroom. As I thought I had it saved on my computer. It is one thing to be on the right side of the trend, it is another to make money on the trend. Essentially would one rather make 30% on the right side of the trend or make 20% 4 times. I prefer the latter without the swings.
I am very much considering signing up for the Financial Forecast Service through EWI. This is why I have been probing for people's thoughts on if the top is in because if the top is actually in, I would like to have access to their counts and when P3 is over. It seems over the years Prechter has had more luck calling bottoms than tops - which is understandable. What are your thoughts on EWI? I know you are a subscriber which is why I ask.
Denninger sums up the $1T bailout quite nicely.
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