TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 5.13.13 - Let's see what DAY 13 brings...

Morning Audibles 5.13.13 - Let's see what DAY 13 brings...

Today marks 13 trading days since the 1219.80 level on the S&P was reached. It may mean something, it may mean nothing. However, there have been THREE "corrections" since the March '09 lows that went as low as a .09 (fibonacci extension)... They were:

- Last June-July (where the extension hit precisely that number, 956-879)...
- January - Feb (where 1150 retraced to 1044)...
- Now (while the "flash crash" of last Thursday printed down to 1065), the algos caught it within a day, and Fridays trading finished the week on PRECISELY .09, [S&P 1,100]...

Both the June/July, and Jan/Feb "corrections" lasted FIBO DAYS (from high to low). The former lasted 21 days, the latter, 13 days. There was another "minor" correction (back in Oct/Nov) that lasted 8 days...

From the most recent high [1219.8], the "Flash Crash" hit on the 8th day... Moreover, today's trading will be the 5th day since the FLASH CRASH (making it DAY 13)...

Since these patterns have repeated themselves, they bear watching. It would make quite a bit of sense to see trading make an attempt to "disavow" any wave completion within todays stick... But if all goes to hell, it could go to hell quite quickly...

It doesn't matter whether or not anyone "believes" in the voodoo of FIBONACCI sequences... If someone shouts "fire" in a crowded theatre, and even only a few people get scared and start to stampede, then the odds that others will follow starts to grow exponentially...

So enjoy yourselves with DAY 13, on May 13...

Houston... Do we have a problem? Or not? (& doesn't it kind of make you wish that some of THESE GUYS were the ones who could solve the problems with out financial system)?

211 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 211 Newer› Newest»

karen said...: morning! i am afraid to look at the futures.. and i received word of the financial travails of an old friend last night.. he is considering the walk away route.; May 13, 2010 at 8:57 AM
CV said...: @Bruce (from other thread)

"Spending simply must go down....no matter what happens on the income side of things."

See that's the problem right there (as reflected in TAX RECEIPTS)...

You're right... People ARE NOT STUPID (except when it comes to voting for politicians)...

PEOPLE are spending less... Instead - tthe GOVERNMENT is spending more... If the CEO of the USA had ever run a Dairy Queen before, he would know that if there are marginally less customers at your DQ stand, the "solution" to the problem is NOT to order a new truckload of ice cream and give out FREE SAMPLES (thereby going from "marginally less" paying customers - to NONE, and raising your input costs in the process)...

But hey, you're a BIG HERO to ice cream lovers, right?; May 13, 2010 at 8:58 AM
karen said...: that break is crude is welcome..; May 13, 2010 at 8:58 AM
karen said...: my husband emailed me last night that what he is seeing there (kauai) and in talks with friends, is that things are much more difficult than most people know.. people have run out of money (and credit.); May 13, 2010 at 9:00 AM
CV said...: @karen

Futures really don't seem to be saying much...

BUCKY is in charge, and EUR/USD seems poised to take out 1.25...

That could create some sparks...

Meanwhile... CV "said" this last week (BEFORE the $972B bailout came through over the weekend)... I even had a chart posted on it...

The cost is going to be $2T (for starters)... So it's taken the banks only 3 days to turn around and tell all the CB's to "pony up more"...

They'll keep trashing the Euro now until they get their way...

The moment you twist someone's arm enough that they cry out "uncle"... The TWISTEE is forever a "sissy"...; May 13, 2010 at 9:04 AM
Anonymous said...: love that troll doll- remember those growing up-

check this out-

Remove Card and Take Bullion; Gold ATM Debuts

"Amid fears over the strength of nearly every major currency, Abu Dhabi’s top hotel has come up with a new type of ATM for their most risk-averse guests. The Emirates Palace is giving those staying there the chance to withdraw gold from the world first ever gold dispenser."

pretty wild-

and also- I would like to know how I got dragged into a shouting match between thor and b22-

what's that all about?; May 13, 2010 at 9:06 AM
CV said...: @karen

Well, there's probably ONE Hawaii native that seems to be doing just fine...

And it ain't DON HO...; May 13, 2010 at 9:08 AM
CV said...: @ahab (9:06)

It's the "comic action hero" syndrome...

Out to SAVE THE WORLD from blogging debates, and economic opinions...; May 13, 2010 at 9:11 AM
Anonymous said...: b22 was on a roll over at TBP- pretty funny comments I thought-

especially liked the "farm trade" comment; May 13, 2010 at 9:17 AM
72bat said...: @ karen
re kauai "people have run out of money (and credit.)"
any particular socio-economic group?
haole retirees? local business/entrepeneurs? travel industry employees (= nearly everyone there)? across the board?; May 13, 2010 at 9:17 AM
karen said...: which post was ben on? BR's gone off and the comments are barely worth my time.

bat, it was an email with few details except for old friend in trouble (he's a beekeeper) whose line of credit was just whacked..; May 13, 2010 at 9:21 AM
karen said...: ahab, those gold ATMs were trotted out in Europe somewhere over the last couple of years.. and in India, you can buy gold at the post office, supposedly!!; May 13, 2010 at 9:23 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and I re-read b22's "thank you Ahab"- post- which is pretty damn funny-

but why addressed to me?- that's what I'm missing; May 13, 2010 at 9:23 AM
CV said...: @ahab

I didn't really read through the thread in DETAIL (just saw a lot of familiar names)...

I went over there in the first place because I'd made a COMMENT on that thread (here) when it was fresh (within about 10 minutes of it having been published)...

I was actually going to "chide" McF because very late in the day, here, he put up a 2nd link to that thread...

You guys don't understand... At least TWICE per day, CV puts up a link to something, that later on in the day, one of you put up a link to the same thing...

I'm like... "Am I invisible or something?"...

Anyway, I don't blame McF so much because he's busy with work and clients all day, and I'm sure can't get to everything in detail (which is true, I suppose, for many of you)...

Anyway, it is what it is...; May 13, 2010 at 9:23 AM
Anonymous said...: karen-

I heard Europe had gold dispensers- but not an ATM- which is hooked up to your bank account; May 13, 2010 at 9:24 AM
karen said...: oh, sorry, ahab, i get it now.. yes. different!; May 13, 2010 at 9:27 AM
Anonymous said...: dude-

your not invisible- I remember when you posted that comment-

I was perusing TBP later in the day at my office- and made some posts on a few topics including the one you mentioned; May 13, 2010 at 9:28 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Here was my comment (on THIS blog), within minutes of when that thread was published yesterday...

---

"CV said...
TWSWB Making the case that this is a "typical" recovery...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/is-this-a-typical-economic-recovery/#more-55949

Typical recovery huh? (Is that why you went 100% cash last week?)...
May 12, 2010 12:49 PM; May 13, 2010 at 9:28 AM
CV said...: It's my "snarky" way of saying that TWSWB behaves in (I'll be NICE here), a "curious" way...

... and the patterns don't match...; May 13, 2010 at 9:29 AM
AmenRa said...: DXY fibo .1459= 85.11 has been broken. still needs to close above it. If so then the fibo .236 at 91.80 is next.; May 13, 2010 at 9:32 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and i think we need to switch up the title song- tiny bubbles doesn't cut it anymore-

more like "big gigantic continent size bubbles"; May 13, 2010 at 9:33 AM
karen said...: Oh, THAT post at TBP.. I did skim it after you brought it to my attention but found it annoying as heck.. I guess is didn't even look at comments.; May 13, 2010 at 9:33 AM
karen said...: Laughing at myself.. the market opened and I wasn't even paying attention! Forgot to put up my streaming quotes, too..; May 13, 2010 at 9:35 AM
CV said...: I'm probably out of my mind, but CV is "shorting" BIDU right here...; May 13, 2010 at 9:35 AM
72bat said...: @ karen
a beekeeper - as in small businesses never saw any trickle down from the TARP billions. elizabeth warren was saying as much on npr this a.m.; May 13, 2010 at 9:38 AM
Anonymous said...: wow- what planet is this person living on?

"It seems that despite recent volatility, investors are still keeping one eye on fundamentals. And with strong corporate earnings, solid data from the US jobs market and a spate of mergers and acquisitions there are still reasons to buy."- CNBC

fundamentals? solid job's data?

WTF?; May 13, 2010 at 9:45 AM
BinT said...: ahab:

I bet Ben just got busy. I'd post here more often, but sometimes we got overwhelmed in the mine, and I may not look at the computer for hours.; May 13, 2010 at 9:45 AM
Anonymous said...: British face big spending cuts as coalition shows unity on austrity -www.globeandmail.com/report-on-business/

Govt. plans to slash 6 billion pounds in public outlay. Record buget deficit -160 billion(11.5% of GDP). What's 10% cut?

Joke? Will public service employees take a pay cut? Meaningful pay cuts. Or will they cut Senior's pensions? Maybe seniors have a union.; May 13, 2010 at 9:47 AM
McFearless said...: ahab,

dude, I was just making a joke. thor likes to play this little game where he calls me a child and makes a big deal about what an adult he is, this is really funny to me because:

1. he's like 7 or 8 years older than me
2. he loves to call me names, you know, like "pussy" or "13 year old girl" when he does this, which is very mature.

I made a post here yesterday about BR's "typical recovery" charts yesterday. My post basically said: (it was english so I'll translate for Thor since he's reading this)

BR is now calling the "recovery", "typical"....Am I crazy or is he crazy because it looks to me to be anything but typical.

thor thought he would play blog police yesterday, why, I don't know, I said nothing to him and directed no comments toward him.

he then went on to claim that "adults" when they have a problem with someone, they confront them directly about it.

i found this laughable for two reasons

1. In the real world, people more often than not do the exact opposite and
2. In blog land (where we all use anonymous screen names btw) I find no reason that I'm required to tell a pundit directly that I disagree with them or think something they are saying is crazy. That was the whole point of my post to you last night, it was supposed to be a joke.

anyway, on to more important topics, I posted a link of that Gold ATM last night in the bottom thread. Not sure what to make of it, it looks both extreme in sentiment but also similar to things we saw in the middle of the RE bubble.; May 13, 2010 at 9:49 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64B53W20100512

U.S. posts 19th straight monthly budget deficit

Ahab:

There is, in my opinion a rapidly growing very ill will against the government and this year's policies. I posted this because I read the comments after the story. They are Vitriolic in the extreme. There are a lot of very angry taxpayers out there, and the election results so far, I think, simply show that this is building for November...; May 13, 2010 at 9:49 AM
CV said...: @72bat

I'll tell you something honestly...

The notion of "small business" is inherently FALSE to begin with...

In the last decade (or more)... 90% of any "small business" existed only because it served to support the larger CREDIT BASED ecosystem...

So whether you were:

- a mortgage broker
- selling copier machines to those paper pushers
- a lawn cutting service
- a coffee shop
- or selling "trinkets" to all the other CATFISH

You only existed because there were some FAT FISH above you...

It's always been that way...

Phrases like "trickle down" only mean something to politicians... It's used to point out CLASS STRUCTURE... One side uses it to get votes from the catfish who don't fancy themselves as catfish...

In REALITY, all economics IS is "trickle down"... It's only a volume issue... There's either ENOUGH to trickle down, or their isn't...

From time to time, you can create something "artificial" to trickle down, but after a time, the big fat fish on top need to check to make sure that the catfish aren't eating before they are...; May 13, 2010 at 9:49 AM
McFearless said...: running a little slow this morning, didn't make it to bed until about 3:30, this place is a real ghost town after 2 am...lol.; May 13, 2010 at 9:49 AM
CV said...: @ahab (9:45)

Only a "Wanger" could make a comment like that...; May 13, 2010 at 9:51 AM
Anonymous said...: @CV, thank you and Amen Ra for this site. It's coming along very well. Now that Mr.Macro is gone, I come here after Bloomberg.

Merci!; May 13, 2010 at 9:51 AM
CV said...: @McF

Well, if we could only get karen & I-Man to bed (with your "sleep hour" habits, we could have a 24/7 operation here)...

Or... karen could swap with her husband and move to Hawaii... (Jeff could meet her out there and move in with his brother)...

Or, we could just get PRASHANT to step it up a little :-); May 13, 2010 at 9:56 AM
Nic said...: Karen that is v interesting from your husband. I think that is true of a lot of places.; May 13, 2010 at 9:58 AM
BinT said...: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLIS00236720100513

LISBON, May 13 (Reuters) - Portugal will deepen budget deficit cuts by imposing extraordinary income taxes of up to 1.5 percent, hiking value-added tax by 1 percentage point and imposing a 2.5 percent tax on large companies and banks' profits.

...It would appear the PIGS are trying to slowly back away from the trough....perhaps they see farmer McDonald sharpening his knife...; May 13, 2010 at 9:58 AM
CV said...: @anon

As long as I keep paying AMENRA the "big bucks", I'm hoping he'll stay around...

When I run out of cash, we're all in deep doo-doo :-); May 13, 2010 at 9:58 AM
McFearless said...: Other Morning thoughts on gold:

do you all remember when Andy discussed ABX over at his blog? If you don't remember Andy made a point to highlight that they had taken all their gold hedges off, the direction of the price of gold could only go up. Of course this ended up hurting sharholders as they bought back the short hedgebook. Andy, at the time, drew a parallel between them and how the airlines had made terrible oil bets in the past if I remember correctly.

Well, Peter Munk from ABX is back out there talking about gold (yes, it's going higher), and this time, of all places, he's on Kudlow!

I don't find any video clip but his visit was under the heading "The Gold Rush"

http://kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com/2010/05/riding-inflation-wave-on-tonights.html; May 13, 2010 at 9:59 AM
BinT said...: I just hope Amen doesn't want to be paid in something other than a fiat currency....if he starts demanding Krugerands then we may all be in trouble...; May 13, 2010 at 10:01 AM
McFearless said...: karen,

thanks for the business thoughts from your husband. Anecdotal accounts from my clients say that the economy is gangbusters right now, lol.

couple examples
I work with a large staffing company CEO in philly, they do job placement primarily for the financial sector and BAC just happens to be a very large client. Temporary hires is better than they have ever seen in their 14 year history. Perm hires,...crickets. the CEO told me, his exact words "this is the most optimistic the banks have been in years" he tells me that they are all confident that they will be making perm. hires very soon and that the economy is on solid ground. this seems to go well with what MW said she was hearing from the banks in that Bloom interview about banker confidence.

I met with two people yesterday that work at DD, both are slammed with work. .

My small business owners otoh, all are having a lot of trouble.

Another thing that is starting to happen is people are bringing up to me in meetings "are a lot of people staying in their home without paying, we know a few people doing it", this is coming up all the time lately.; May 13, 2010 at 10:06 AM
CV said...: @Bruce (10:01)

But you see, that's how it works...

CV played a "Jedi Mind Trick" on AmenRa...

I appealed to his REASON... I said... "Amen, I could pay you a lot of money here, but both of us know that the money you'd be getting would be denominated in some fiat currency that will eventually be WORTHLESS... So what's the point in paying you at all?"...

Amen... Smart guy that he is... AGREED!

At SC, we're all about, efficiency, and sound reasoning...; May 13, 2010 at 10:07 AM
AmenRa said...: Payment in gold coins is accepted. I also have a portable tester to make sure it's not gold plated tungsten :); May 13, 2010 at 10:07 AM
BinT said...: "Well, if we could only get karen & I-Man to bed (with your "sleep hour" habits, we could have a 24/7 operation here)..."

...UM,will this be available for viewing on U-Tube??????; May 13, 2010 at 10:09 AM
McFearless said...: C,

sorry man about the links, I try my best to read every single comment on here but sometimes I just miss a few. it's kind of funny though that I find the same links as you on a pretty regular basis and post them after you do.; May 13, 2010 at 10:09 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @Bruce

"There are a lot of very angry taxpayers out there, and the election results so far, I think, simply show that this is building for November... "

Hopefully they can remember all the REAL amendments that were proposed for financial reform and who voted against them i.e. audit the fed, bank limit size, bank tax, Volker Rule, etc.; May 13, 2010 at 10:10 AM
CV said...: @Mcf (10:06)

Well... If you extrapolate that further...

1. BAC (and banks) hiring more
2. People staying in their homes not paying

Perhaps this means that in the recent past, the banks didn't have enough staff in their collection departments to go after people... NOW THEY WILL...

Perhaps they're re-doubling their "collection" efforts?; May 13, 2010 at 10:11 AM
mcHAPPY said...: My oil shorts would 'only' be down about 15% or so right now. After 11 months I should have waited another month and a half. mcHAPPY is mcAWFUL on the trade - any trade.

Has anyone seen LB or is he mourning MM?; May 13, 2010 at 10:12 AM
CV said...: @McF (10:09)

I actually take it as a backhanded "compliment".

(it means that I'm not just digging up TRASH)...; May 13, 2010 at 10:13 AM
McFearless said...: re: bee doo

I got this e-mail from the advisor I've told you all about before, he sent it to me yesterday morning, the one that was buying Brazil a few months ago because they "got the Olympics"

"Baidu did a 1 for 10 split last night...closed at $713 and trading at $74 if anyone is interested."; May 13, 2010 at 10:14 AM
CV said...: Speaking of "digging up" (& other forensic matters)...

Did anyone see this?

Note: all of you have to click on this link and watch this... - I'm not kidding

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6412572n; May 13, 2010 at 10:16 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @CV

mcHAPPY finds many of his links are linked up later as well. I guess when there is so much linked, it is impossible view it all.

OR, in my case, I'm such a loser at the financial game nobody listens - probably rightfully so.

Ohhhhh shoot me. I'm in a bad place, forgive my patheticness.; May 13, 2010 at 10:16 AM
CV said...: @McF

I "shorted" BIDU this morning...

I'll probably get my balls crushed, but we'll see... It just hit a big FIBO extension...; May 13, 2010 at 10:17 AM
McFearless said...: C, hard to say, I had a few orders in yesterday that didn't get filled. I'm not sure what we do here, everyone has the range 1170-1180, lot of people looking for 1173-1174 and then a re-test of the thursday low with a large bounce to new highs after.

You might be set up really well for a short term trade if that's how the direction plays.; May 13, 2010 at 10:20 AM
mcHAPPY said...: I am dumbfounded by the lack of influence Bucky is having on the markets - over 85 and all is well. This was one of my central arguments for everything else going down. Wrong, again.; May 13, 2010 at 10:21 AM
McFearless said...: I actually think some of the puts on AAPl look dirt cheap but I don't have the stones to try and short that thing.; May 13, 2010 at 10:22 AM
CV said...: @McF

If it works, I'm treating it as a "short term" trade...

(as it would definitely be a P1 - I don't want to give it back in a "2")...; May 13, 2010 at 10:22 AM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

Haven't you heard the comparisons about the dollar man? Here's how it goes, I've heard this from several mutual fund companies (all of which were dollar bears last year) and several pundits:

The dollar rose in the 90's WITH stocks.

time to bust out your Prince CD McHappy, party like it's 1999, or maybe 1998 with that comparison DL eyed yesterday (which I think could be valid); May 13, 2010 at 10:23 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Actually I am not the only one noticing the disconnect between BUCKY and SPX.; May 13, 2010 at 10:26 AM
CV said...: @McF

I simply don't understand why RETAIL operations (selling products into the Eurozone), with the Euro getting hammered, are holding up (STOCK PRICE) right here...

I mean... Spain, Portugal, England are all talking about payroll cuts to public workers...

Fuel prices are going up (in Euros)... and gas over there is already 3x more than it is here...

How the hell can these companies beat earnings (when for the past year their forecasts have been helped by a weak dollar)...

I don't get it!; May 13, 2010 at 10:27 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Truer words have never been spoken, since yesterday!

"(as it would definitely be a P1 - I don't want to give it back in a "2")... "

Only thing worse than giving it all back, is giving it all back and then some.; May 13, 2010 at 10:27 AM
CV said...: @McHappy

relax... look on the bright side...

You could be long MONsanto...; May 13, 2010 at 10:29 AM
CV said...: Friggin Monsanto has already taken out the '08 lows...; May 13, 2010 at 10:31 AM
karen said...: CV @10:16, my mouth is agape !!!; May 13, 2010 at 10:31 AM
mcHAPPY said...: I guess, CV.

Did anyone look at the Denninger link from 10:26?; May 13, 2010 at 10:33 AM
McFearless said...: ooh, that MON chart is awful, I was long that in 09 for a portion of the year. One of the worst companies out there from an environmental/ethical perspective....; May 13, 2010 at 10:34 AM
Anonymous said...: wow-

thanks for that link CV-

to think of all the personal documents I copy from my customers- passports, green cards, 1040's, W2's, pay checks, bank statements, loan applications-

with that info someone could have a field day-

talk about identity fraud; May 13, 2010 at 10:34 AM
BinT said...: CV:

I know you know this, but stock prices globally are held up here by one thing only...the liquidity provided by the FED. I would bet the Ponderosa that once the FED has to start tightening, that equities will fall. As Greenspan and Bernanke know, when you bring rates down to these levels, people take risks in equities rather than parking it in cash. Hell, every single one of us knows this basic truth...

If the 80 year old grandma gets talked into equities here because she can't live on cash's interest, then may Bernanke reap a just reward..; May 13, 2010 at 10:34 AM
CV said...: @karen

re: (10:16)

Is that not one of the most SHOCKING things you've ever seen?; May 13, 2010 at 10:35 AM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

dont' get too down on yourself man. Everyone makes bad trades....everyone. Keep your head up.; May 13, 2010 at 10:36 AM
CV said...: Harry Wanger said...

@McF (10:36)

I NEVER make a bad trade...; May 13, 2010 at 10:40 AM
Anonymous said...: Roubini: "The US Economy Is Unsustainable"

wow- quite the revelation- lol; May 13, 2010 at 10:47 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @Ben

Thanks but I'm about to do the 2 finger like Spartacus in episode 3. Only thing is I'm off to the mines. Take care.; May 13, 2010 at 10:49 AM
Anonymous said...: from ZH-

The weekly ICI number for long-term domestic mutual fund flows is out, and not surprisingly, retail investors were bailing out in droves from the stock market even before the massive flash crash of May 6. In fact, in the week ended May 5, retail investors had pulled a massive $2.235 billion out of the market, after the S&P had dropped a mere 5% or so from the prior week. We are positive that when the number for the current week comes out, the outflows will be stunning now that investors have no faith left in the rigged casino "capital markets."; May 13, 2010 at 10:50 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

Surprised that copy machines don't have a zero format option built in. Under the admin menu there should be an option to wipe the drive.; May 13, 2010 at 10:52 AM
Nic said...: CV your 10:16 is scary.
I am not even on facebook because I am a privacy freak.; May 13, 2010 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: I know LB thinks retail will be WTE tomorrow.. anyone else have an opinion?; May 13, 2010 at 10:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Beijing Property Prices Collapse; May 13, 2010 at 10:57 AM
McFearless said...: I rarely even do a google search anymore thanks to MEH.

@Karen,

that seems like a smart call, Easter falling when it did pushed the prior month numbers and the recent figures that have come in at some places have been less than stunning.; May 13, 2010 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: what about the copiers in public libraries and FEDEX Office ?? what was that futuristic movie where the fellow (willis?) had to have his eyes replaced ?; May 13, 2010 at 11:00 AM
Nic said...: McF what do you mean about MEH and google searches?; May 13, 2010 at 11:02 AM
McFearless said...: Nic,

google searches that you do all get stored, you give up your right to privacy when you use google, youtube, etc.; May 13, 2010 at 11:04 AM
Anonymous said...: BinT @ 9:49-

thanks for that link-

comments- as you had indicated- are quite vitriolic-

and why shouldn't they be-

the April deficit is a show- if we can't balance it in the month when all the tax receipts are due- then when can we ever balance it?

never- that's becoming more and more clear; May 13, 2010 at 11:05 AM
McFearless said...: also, I wish more people in the states would pay attention to the Patriot Act, obama has just extened some of the most intrusive components of it.; May 13, 2010 at 11:05 AM
Anonymous said...: someone's got a copy of my ass then-

probably see it on display at the modern art museum in DC before long- lol; May 13, 2010 at 11:06 AM
McFearless said...: always wanted to try that ahab but I figured the moment I did I'd be that guy that goes through the glass on the machine and the last time I pulled glass out of my ass.....; May 13, 2010 at 11:08 AM
Anonymous said...: nic-

also- you must know that google scans your gmail- which I use by the way-

microsoft made a comment to the effect- "well at least we don't scan your email"- taking a swipe @ google; May 13, 2010 at 11:09 AM
72bat said...: Nic -
MEH uses http://clusty.com/sitesearch for his searches; May 13, 2010 at 11:09 AM
karen said...: Re Bruce's link.. I agree that people are polarizing.. either riotous or resigned.. I fall into the indignantly resigned half.; May 13, 2010 at 11:11 AM
Anonymous said...: and you can always use-

SCROOGLE

no cookies | no search-term records | access log deleted within 48 hours; May 13, 2010 at 11:15 AM
McFearless said...: well, if the small caps are the guide now we are going to new highs. You certainly now have to rule out an impulsive down count on r2000 because it broke a rule today....I keep in mind that its a secondary, and did odd things in 08 as well, but if the larger trend is still up then this is foreshadowing a move higher.; May 13, 2010 at 11:16 AM
Anonymous said...: I use Bing myself for searching- not quite sure where they stand on any of this; May 13, 2010 at 11:16 AM
Nic said...: Here is a very very scary website people:
www.spokeo.com; May 13, 2010 at 11:16 AM
CV said...: @karen

I don't think it was "Willis"... I think you're thinking of MINORITY REPORT (Tom Cruise)...

@ahab (11:06)

LMAO! (While yours is stuck in the copier); May 13, 2010 at 11:17 AM
McFearless said...: re: Bruce Link

it's all part of socionomics, I think that 2003 policital forecast paper is free this week as well. People come together in bulls, they split apart in bears....teams for example have a harder time working together in negative social mood for this reason. Makes you consider all the plane crashes lately, or the plane that flew a few hours past its landing as it was rumored there was an argument going on in the cockpit.; May 13, 2010 at 11:17 AM
karen said...: Ben, $wlsh is better.. tomorrow will be big down day.. like yesterday should have been.. i swear they have this jacked on crack!; May 13, 2010 at 11:18 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

well I can't disagree there, that's the whole market, waves look cleaner, and it's smack up against the 50 day right now.; May 13, 2010 at 11:22 AM
karen said...: look at xrt candle on today, too..; May 13, 2010 at 11:26 AM
McFearless said...: C,

Check out this top chart on $WLSH, it's similar to work in an interim letter by RP he just put out about all the Fibo relationships and time cycles going back roughly 100 years on the DOW.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3271025; May 13, 2010 at 11:29 AM
CV said...: @McF

Ha!... P3 (on that chart), corresponds with (more or less) December 21st, 2012...

How appropriate!; May 13, 2010 at 11:33 AM
Anonymous said...: check out these two headlines-

"US Foreclosures Fell in April, Signaling Improvement"- CNBC

"U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record as Recovery Delayed" - Bloomberg

wow- it was the best of times and the worst of times-

CNBC is looking at foreclosure filings while Bloomberg is looking at actual foreclosures

Blooomberg's take-

Right now it appears that the banks are focusing on processing the loans already in foreclosure, and slowing down the initiation of new foreclosure proceedings as a way of managing inventory levels

thus the 45% increase in foreclosures and the 2% decrease in filings; May 13, 2010 at 11:34 AM
CV said...: Hey...

I'm already up 5% on my BIDU short...; May 13, 2010 at 11:39 AM
Anonymous said...: hey nic-

I just put my name in Spokeo-

I didn't show up- but found a few folks with the same name- my last name is a bit unusual- so it was kind of cool seeing a few others were around in the country-

I wonder if they are pulling that info from social websites? Doesn't appear to be the phone book- I don't have a land line- but typed in a few names of folks I know who do- and they didn't show either; May 13, 2010 at 11:41 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

good one- did you see that link I put up on the Beijing RE crash happening as we speak?; May 13, 2010 at 11:42 AM
McFearless said...: I popped right up on Spokeo but no phone number

I didn't realize so many people had the same name as me.; May 13, 2010 at 11:44 AM
CV said...: I popped up too...

Says I'm married and I'm a Gemini...

So how much 'credibility' does that thing really have?; May 13, 2010 at 11:49 AM
CV said...: Never been married...

and I've sure never been a Gemini either...; May 13, 2010 at 11:50 AM
CV said...: Then again...

On the internet, I think I profile as a liberal...

Obama sends me e-mails almost every day... He thinks I'm named "Marie"...

See people, it's NOT ABOUT going to "Clusty" to do searches... It's about SUBTERFUGE...

Patton and his 3rd Army raced their tanks clear across France while Hitler had his Army still defending a position waiting for Patton to lead an invasion force on the beaches of Calais...; May 13, 2010 at 11:55 AM
AmenRa said...: Ben

You do realize that blogger.com is Google?

"Your computer belongs to us. Do not try to go to another webpage."; May 13, 2010 at 11:56 AM
Anonymous said...: maybe it's predictive- things that will occur-

so maybe you will be married and find you were actually born in June; May 13, 2010 at 11:57 AM
Nic said...: put your email address in spokeo and see what comes up ...; May 13, 2010 at 12:00 PM
Nic said...: I am actually thinking of switching to wordpress. Some days blogger is frustrating; May 13, 2010 at 12:01 PM
CV said...: @ahab

Point is...

In a lot of ways I simply don't care...

If ANYONE seriously wants ANYONE, they're going to get them...

I say - come and get me if you want to... (I suspect most others have a lot more to hide than I do)...; May 13, 2010 at 12:02 PM
CV said...: @Nic

Not even the e-mail data comes out accurate...

I have several different e-mail addresses...

Each search produced a WILDLY different set of results...; May 13, 2010 at 12:06 PM
CV said...: When they can tell me what I had for dinner last night, then I'll worry about it...; May 13, 2010 at 12:06 PM
Anonymous said...: tried that too nic-

bogus info popped up- not me; May 13, 2010 at 12:07 PM
CV said...: @Amen

Blogger = Google...

Hey, well, GOOG... HEAR THIS... I "shorted" BIDU today... That ought to make you happy...

Now get your nose out of my @ss and go spy on someone else...; May 13, 2010 at 12:08 PM
CV said...: The SPY is right at the same levels from last week (just before the SELL ORDERS started waving in)...; May 13, 2010 at 12:12 PM
karen said...: i typed my name into spokeo (never heard of it before). very accurate info on me..; May 13, 2010 at 12:12 PM
Ryen said...: Ben22, here is some socionomic fodder for you:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/time-cover-new-sheriffs-of-wall-street/

RPH; May 13, 2010 at 12:15 PM
Nic said...: Yeah very accurate on me too, which is what freaked me out a bit.; May 13, 2010 at 12:16 PM
Anonymous said...: but CV- a bit wild though isn't it- that they always show footage from a video cam of a suspect- I think there is a lot more stuff out there than we think-

and I can see it now- "images of CV- suspected mastermind behind of the Getty collection heist- eating an Arugula salad w/ balsamic vinaigrette"; May 13, 2010 at 12:16 PM
karen said...: my emails typed in spokeo were a bust, however.. wrong karen.; May 13, 2010 at 12:21 PM
karen said...: running out to do some errands! back in a bit.. ahab, sext me if the market crashes, okay?; May 13, 2010 at 12:22 PM
CV said...: @ahab

For some strange reason... None of that "phases me" in the least...

It just doesn't bother me...

If that's what the world has come to... 24/7 of "getting spied on"... Then great, I'll spend my next few decades (I hope) here and be done with it...

I've got better things to do than lose sleep worrying about who is looking over my shoulder...

Jeez... people call ME the "Uni-bomber"... I'm probably the LEAST paranoid one of the bunch...; May 13, 2010 at 12:23 PM
Anonymous said...: Is it Time to Abolish the NFL Combine?

. . .data put together by University of Chicago economist Richard Thaler and Yale professor Cade Massey . . .says that high-end draft choices are overvalued. Their great piece of data? In their first five years on the field, the odds that a higher pick will outperform the guy selected before him is just 52 percent.

Translation? Trade down for more picks to increase your chances of getting a better player.

pretty decent advice; May 13, 2010 at 12:25 PM
CV said...: @ahab

That's why Ozzie Newsome (Ravens GM) is one of the "best in the business"...

He routinely applies that strategy...; May 13, 2010 at 12:27 PM
Anonymous said...: CV-

no doubt- the way it is I guess- I know London is notorious for video cams-

anyway- gotta roll out-

Karen- you kill me(-:!!!!; May 13, 2010 at 12:29 PM
CV said...: @ahab

It's not always simply about STATS however...

For example, the Broncos drafted TIM TEBOW...

He's likely to be a "bust"... But Tim Tebow jerseys shot up to #1 in jersey sales, and he's sure to pack the seats in the stadium...; May 13, 2010 at 12:29 PM
McFearless said...: @Ra,

yes, was aware of goog/blog, hence the McFearless stuff.

@ryen,

interesting, thanks.; May 13, 2010 at 1:00 PM
BinT said...: http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/05/13/sp-warns-on-commercial-real-estate/

"Standard & Poor's downgraded three insurance companies, including Principal Financial (PFG), citing expected losses on commercial mortgages and commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS.

Thursday's downgrades come after an industry-wide review led the rating agency to focus on "several U.S. life companies with significant exposure to commercial mortgages and CMBS relative to total invested assets or potential losses relative to capital under stress scenarios."

Also getting downgraded Thursday were mutual insurers NLV, which is part of National Life Insurance, and Pacific LifeCorp, which runs Pacific Mutual and Pacific Life. They and Principal are now rated triple-B, the second-lowest investment grade rating.; May 13, 2010 at 1:01 PM
Nic said...: Stopped out once on my silver short. Back in and looking a bit more promising today.; May 13, 2010 at 1:09 PM
McFearless said...: looks like all the action will come tomorrow, CA budgets, this supposed D-mark stuff, lots of econ data....; May 13, 2010 at 1:19 PM
Mannwich said...: OK guys. Back after being out of blogging commission for the last day and a half or so. What did I miss? ;-)

@cv: I LOVE your idea about my moving to Kauai. Now can you just convince my wife? ;-); May 13, 2010 at 1:20 PM
CV said...: @Manny

CV knows better than to tangle himself up in the affairs of married couples...; May 13, 2010 at 1:33 PM
Mannwich said...: @cv: Wise man.; May 13, 2010 at 1:38 PM
Mannwich said...: We're now getting our March and April weather.....in mid May! Terrible week to ten days of weather here. Well below average temp-wise.

Good news is that we got the rain we needed and it's going to warm up again tomorrow and hit 78-80 by early next week.; May 13, 2010 at 1:39 PM
CV said...: @Manny

It's actually been GREAT for my arugula and lettuce...

It was so warm a few weeks ago, I thought I was going to lose them...; May 13, 2010 at 1:41 PM
Mannwich said...: @cv: Yeah, that's why I really shouldn't complain. We really need the rain badly. Still well below regular levels too but I can do without the 40 degree temps. 60s or 70s and rainy much better.; May 13, 2010 at 1:43 PM
BinT said...: May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Spain and Portugal may be getting the message as they try to stop their economies from becoming infected by the Greek crisis.

Two days after other European governments told them to fix their budgets in return for a $1 trillion backstop, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero yesterday announced the biggest round of budget reductions in 30 years. In Portugal, Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos says he’s prepared for “social tension” after announcing additional cuts.

Policy makers are running the risk of union opposition as they force through austerity measures to convince investors they won’t join Greece in asking for an international bailout. While some economists said the European Union lifeline could take pressure off deficit-laden nations to act, it was enough to prompt Zapatero to announce a 5 percent cut in public wages.

“The fiscal announcements serve to suggest that the momentum now is indeed towards fiscal cuts,” said Erik Nielsen, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. “What we have in the euro zone policy space right now is ‘moral suasion,’ not ‘‘moral hazard.’’’

The yield on Spain’s two-year government bond dropped 12 basis points to 1.861 percent yesterday after rising to a euro- era high of 3.143 percent last week. Portugal saw more demand at a sale of 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) of 10-year bonds yesterday, with the debt priced to yield 4.52 percent, down 181 basis points from the May 7 high.

...I must admit, this doesn't sound inflationary......; May 13, 2010 at 1:55 PM
McFearless said...: VIX might have found a trendline and is about to rocket up, the patterns on there are starting to look similar to late 07 and early 08 as we began to go down, worth keeping an eye on.; May 13, 2010 at 2:10 PM
McFearless said...: I have to say that thursday flash crash really jacked up my charts....I don't know how to count that pattern at all.; May 13, 2010 at 2:12 PM
karen said...: I'm back.. Bruce is still on and on about the fundamentals, I see.. : ); May 13, 2010 at 2:12 PM
karen said...: Ben, i'm just lopping off the tail.. but still everything got messed up.. or did it? time will tell if that wasn't the warning of all warnings..; May 13, 2010 at 2:14 PM
DL said...: McF @ 2:10

Yeah, you don't make a big move in VIX like we just had without an aftershock coming soon after.; May 13, 2010 at 2:16 PM
Nic said...: BinT
Spain is going to have demonstrations I am sure. I watched a video last night of them in Ireland.

Mish: Record 40 Million, 1 in 8 on Food Stamps: Hello recovery, where art thou? Month after month, the number of food st... http://bit.ly/dzxIVy

How are those people going to afford the new health care?; May 13, 2010 at 2:21 PM
BinT said...: Karen:

I sold my AMAT..all I can do is lurk and examine the tea leaves.

Besides....I am waiting to see the CV movie when he makes you and I-man go to bed....

....Unlike LB...I have popcorn...; May 13, 2010 at 2:22 PM
karen said...: Nic, I can only imagine with their perpetual unemployment checks.. but seriously, good question!; May 13, 2010 at 2:28 PM
McFearless said...: Since LB isn't around:

Released on 5/12/2010 1:00:00 PM For 5/12/2010 1:00:00 PM
Auction Results
Bid/Cover 2.96
Coupon Rate 3.500%
Total Amount $24 B
Yield Awarded 3.548%

Highlights
Bidding was aggressive for the month's 10-year note auction, an oversize $24 billion offering where coverage came in at a solid 2.96. Dealers are definitely losing business as direct bidding was very aggressive at 25 percent. Indirect bidding was also firm, at 42 percent, making for a combined 67 percent non-dealer takedown and far above the 52 percent average.

High yield of 3.548 percent was right at the 1:00 bid. A look back at the high yield in last month's auction offers a key yardstick for the sovereign-risk effect. The April yield was more than 35 basis points higher than now, this during a time when U.S. economic data have strengthened! Tomorrow the Treasury auctions $16 billion of 30-year bonds.; May 13, 2010 at 2:28 PM
Nic said...: Floored movie episode 4 for those who are watching:
http://www.babelgum.com/browser.php#play/SEARCH_SIMILAR,clipID:5003507,includeClip:true,order:MOST_RELEVANT/2,5003510; May 13, 2010 at 2:31 PM
McFearless said...: Nic,

re: Mish, looks like that phrase "Oh SNAP" just took on a whole new meaning.

also, according to the Census Bureau the estimated US population as of 7/09 was 307,006,550. How can people talk about recovery with over 10% of the entire population on SNAP. Maybe it's just another case of "lag-time"?

Oh Snap! indeed.; May 13, 2010 at 2:32 PM
karen said...: Public Dept to GDP. Is that a cup and handle I see?; May 13, 2010 at 2:35 PM
karen said...: Very nice, Ben! That'll do!

It'll be interesting to see how lulu ends the day.. yesterday's upday could be the prelude to today or tomorrow's distribution day...; May 13, 2010 at 2:39 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

Are you long lulu?

I had caught some decent action on ANF puts, I'm thinking about buying more today and maybe I'll get a little lucky tomorrow. I hate that store so I enjoy betting against the stock, not to mention it's probably just a tad overvalued....; May 13, 2010 at 2:41 PM
karen said...: JWN reports after the close.. currently candle is very bearish engulfing..; May 13, 2010 at 2:43 PM
karen said...: Ben, please, i am not long lulu with a PE of 51+ that is probably dble that! and, we are in a recession for crying out loud!; May 13, 2010 at 2:46 PM
McFearless said...: this level right here has been support all day basically; May 13, 2010 at 2:57 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.cnbc.com/id/37134228; May 13, 2010 at 2:58 PM
Anonymous said...: I read the CNBC note on Abby Joseph:

The US stock market should continue to move ahead even as the economy slows down, Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC. She related that as a term of her employment she had agreed to have a chip implanted in her head that sent her bullish signals all her adult life since that time.

"That chip has been in there so long, I wouldn't recognize difficult economic conditions now if they bit me in the ass." Ms. Cohen was quoted as saying.; May 13, 2010 at 3:07 PM
McFearless said...: ah, fun!; May 13, 2010 at 3:15 PM
72bat said...: ruh roh; May 13, 2010 at 3:17 PM
McFearless said...: this has to be some sort of computer error right?; May 13, 2010 at 3:18 PM
Mannwich said...: EURO closing in on sub 125.; May 13, 2010 at 3:18 PM
Mannwich said...: Quick - let's get another $1T bazooka out for the EUR. The last one didn't do the job.; May 13, 2010 at 3:20 PM
karen said...: No fear, Ben, this is just a typical correction within the typical economic recovery.; May 13, 2010 at 3:22 PM
McFearless said...: DR's Daily:

We said last week, and again earlier this week, that the behaviour of the VIX index has recently been consistent with either the tail end of a bull market in equities or the onset of a new bear phase. Indeed, a cursory glance of the market internals — divergences, put-to-call ratio, investor sentiment, the new high-low list — strongly suggest that the first move above 1,200 on the S&P 500 in January resembled the break above 1,500 in July 2007, and the next blowoff move through 1,200, again in late April, looked like the double peak in October 2007.

The obvious question is: how can the bull market possibly be over considering that we enjoyed that amazing 405-point rally on the Dow just three days ago (Monday, May 10)? Wasn’t that an exclamation mark that the bull is alive and well?

Far from it. There have been no fewer than 16 such rallies of 400 points or more in the past, and 12 of them occurred during the brutal burst of the credit bubble and the other four took place around the tech wreck a decade ago.

In other words, the most valuable information contained in last week’s intense volatility, underscored by the 400-plus point bounce in the Dow, is that it’s time to take chips off the table and brace for the breakdown.; May 13, 2010 at 3:24 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

please direct comments like that directly to the persons that made them. Please act like an adult!

(and yes, I'm totally kidding!); May 13, 2010 at 3:25 PM
BinT said...: If this is computer generated selling once again, I have read the new directions Mr. Obama just had printed:

"If selling begins to accelerate toward the close of the trading day, simply walk slowly behind your HAL 9000 and pull the electrical plug"; May 13, 2010 at 3:26 PM
McFearless said...: tomorrow should be busy

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

lots of other things supposed to come out tomorrow not on the calendar.; May 13, 2010 at 3:27 PM
McFearless said...: the VIX chart looks really bullish to me, as in it is going way up, not the market.; May 13, 2010 at 3:30 PM
BinT said...: Get your fat finger offin' that keyboard!; May 13, 2010 at 3:30 PM
CV said...: @McF

Going back to something you said above (I was away for a bit)...

karen's idea of "lopping off the tail" isn't a bad one...

Consider that the market CLOSED Friday right on 1110 (which was the .09 from 1219.80)...

Both Jan & June "corrections" went to those levels so maybe you start there?; May 13, 2010 at 3:31 PM
BinT said...: I suppose this is just another day Goldman won't lose money...; May 13, 2010 at 3:31 PM
karen said...: Who is DR, btw? Excellent advice.. laughing.; May 13, 2010 at 3:32 PM
McFearless said...: wonder if UUP can close at $25 or above by the close tomorrow. Dollar longs should keep a close eye at this point, it's coming due for a larger pull-back now.; May 13, 2010 at 3:32 PM
McFearless said...: Rosenberg; May 13, 2010 at 3:33 PM
CV said...: @karen (3:22) & @McF

See McF... karen "thinks" like you and I, she is just able to express herself in a "lady like" manner... ;-); May 13, 2010 at 3:36 PM
McFearless said...: C,

Like I've been saying, women are the real deal in Bear markets, lol.; May 13, 2010 at 3:37 PM
McFearless said...: a close below 1150 would be a big deal, damange done if that happens.; May 13, 2010 at 3:40 PM
karen said...: David Rosenberg, of course, now I feel like an idiot. And, that Afternoon Tea Talk, aka, that dire warning, is also sitting in my Inbox.. just hadn't read it yet!; May 13, 2010 at 3:40 PM
CV said...: Well...

CV was prescient in ANOTHER way today...

I used the "Apollo 13" theme...

It's public "lore" that that mission launched at 13:13... It didn't...

It launched at 14:13 (but it was 13:13 - "Houston" time)...

Likewise, the cascade began to occur today at 14:13... 13:13 Houston time...; May 13, 2010 at 3:42 PM
McFearless said...: C,

yeah, nice call. run around and yell bee doo bee doo bee doo; May 13, 2010 at 3:44 PM
frizzione said...: McF,

Below 1150 would give me a very warm and fuzzy feeling!; May 13, 2010 at 3:45 PM
CV said...: Maybe Andy T was the "fat finger" :-); May 13, 2010 at 3:46 PM
CV said...: @McF

LOL! :-); May 13, 2010 at 3:47 PM
friz said...: ...but it's looking like I'll have to get that another way. Or, at least, another day.; May 13, 2010 at 3:47 PM
McFearless said...: Frizz! Whats Up.

I agree about the 1150, but trying not to get any hopes up.

You looking to reduce position size in the dollar or to accumulate the next drop? I'm looking for the latter for any clients in it.

Saw Dent on YouTube, he's saying 3,800 DOW by December.; May 13, 2010 at 3:50 PM
McFearless said...: I gotta head out all. Enjoy the rest of your day/night.; May 13, 2010 at 3:50 PM
CV said...: @anon

YOU CAN'T (type in bold)...

It's forbidden...

An "anon" like yourself might use "invisible ink", or something like that...

You probably just bracket "ii" then "slash ii"

Then all of us would be very happy not to read your comments...; May 13, 2010 at 3:52 PM
anonymous proctologist said...: Can I use bold?; May 13, 2010 at 3:55 PM
CV said...: @ap

The rules for an anon proctologist are different...

You can only use it when you use the term "asshat"...

Or otherwise when you're referencing Dr. Phil...; May 13, 2010 at 3:59 PM
CV said...: I'm still deciding on whether you're allowed to use it to express an idea like...

"P3 will occur when monkeys fly out of your butt"; May 13, 2010 at 4:01 PM
karen said...: okay, okay i'm leaving now! check back later! money supply at 4:30.; May 13, 2010 at 4:03 PM
CV said...: @karen

You'd have been better off checking out at (3:54) :-); May 13, 2010 at 4:04 PM
anonymous proctologist said...: As a licenced asshat, and a board certified anonymous proctologist troll, you might want to see a doctor about that.; May 13, 2010 at 4:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Actually, the very mental image of what an "asshat" might look like is quite troubling to me. Would it have a string, like some cowboy hats, so that if a big wind came up.......it wouldn't fly off? Could it be removed in a hurry............like if you went inside and how you would take a normal hat off? Could you get it in any color? Uh, any size....?; May 13, 2010 at 4:15 PM
CV said...: home remedies...; May 13, 2010 at 4:16 PM
CV said...: @anon

Well one thing is for damn sure...

The ladies, I doubt, would take too kindly to the gentlemen tipping their "asshats" to them...

Just an educated guess...; May 13, 2010 at 4:20 PM
CV said...: test; May 13, 2010 at 4:21 PM
BinT/anonymouse said...: Hmmmmmmm....another software problem....I see a dark evil core to this problem with high counts on the blog site.....; May 13, 2010 at 4:30 PM

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Morning Audibles 5.13.13 - Let's see what DAY 13 brings...

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