Morning Audibles 5.14.10 What You See If You Look

Many of you have probably already seen the video that I'm linking here. I finally got to it this morning.


Why did it take me so long? I'll give you three simple reasons (and then let you follow whatever your personal "thought trend" leads you to fill in the numbers from #4 to #100)...

1. I'm not particularly, um, a fan, of "Lady Gaga" (some catchy songs I suppose, but I'm not a fan of "schtick" performers)
2. I'm not a fan of American Idol. (That said, I've NEVER watched it, EVER, not even 5 minutes). I don't have to, I know I'd be bored out of my mind in less than half that time.
3. 6th graders don't move me in any particular way either (or, at least the 99.9% of them who spend 99.9% of their waking hours gossiping, twittering, & texting messages back and forth between one another discussing #'s 1 & 2 above...

But I finally broke down and watched it. I'm going to skip right through the fact that it was a FANTASTIC rendition (most who have seen it already know that)...

So why am I bothering to use it to open up discussion on a blog which discusses Capital Markets? Answer: Because "markets" ARE emotion. RP, I believe, calls it "Socioeconomics"...

CV found himself watching the "faces" of the other 6th graders in the audience as the performance began. Remember, these were raw emotions. This was not some TV director doing "cutaways". There were no lights, no fog, no sequined outfits. Just a bunch of bored 6th graders in an auditorium, probably wishing they were somewhere else, but perhaps slightly happy because they got to skip their "Earth Science" class...

Now what I just said isn't apparent to EVERY naked eye. Some of you will just see a bunch of faces (and they all will look the same). But I can see the ones, who, were unexpectedly taken aback by this performance. The blonde girl up top for instance - you can see it in her eyes - her eyes start moving a mile a minute SEARCHING, looking to catch the eyes of someone else in the room and basically say, SILENTLY, "Wow - Are you hearing what I'm hearing"?. (There are others who clearly react in the same way - go ahead and pick them out on your own).

They are not ALL afficianados. There's a girl in the middle with black hair. During the middle of the performance she's twirling her hair with her finger. Body Language experts tell you that when a girl twirls her hair she's "flirting". This was not flirting, this was. "I don't get it, & I'm bored".

Anyway, the reason I bring this all up is that both in markets (and in the blogosphere), some people GET IT, and some people DON'T. CV has known this from watching the faces of people (in a live setting) for over 25 years teaching group fitness. You're pouring your guts out day after day trying to be unique, challenging, and motivating - with hardly any regard of your own needs. You're just trying to CREATE SOMETHING, an EXPERIENCE for people to enjoy (and let everyone be themselves in the process).

So that's my metaphor for the day. It's probably the reason the markets have been so frustrating for a long time now. Why, because there IS NO FREEDOM, there IS NO EXPRESSION when governments and banksters all try to control the outcome.

It would be as if the principal of the school (before the kid's performance) instructed everyone that they had to paint a smile on their face and stare straight ahead because this was all being filmed for broadcast. Worse - If there had been an attempt to manufacture the outcome in a manner like that, most of the audience would have likely been to distracted with their "duty" to actually enjoy the performance the way they did. It's further likely that then entire thing would have NEVER become a sensation. And of course, SURELY all of America would have been forced to watch the "other" kid play the kazoo while juggling coconuts as an attachment because, well, it's NOT FAIR to have people FAIL in society now is it?

Instead, we live in a world of teleprompter Presidents who get elected because they say what they think people want to hear. They think that people want to AVOID FAILURE at all costs. They will do everything legal in their powers to avoid that outcome, and if the laws themselves aren't helping out, well they'll change those.

The truth is, that "failure" or any notions of "avoiding failure" are not scripted into the Declaration of Independence. Instead, the DOI refers to the "pursuit of happiness".

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."

Moreover, these unalienable rights are NOT endowed by their President, Congress, King, or Czar. They are endowed by their Creator.

So the moral of this story is to get yourselves off your "screens". Get off your i-Pods, your crackberries, your AI, and your market tickers. Just glance up for a minute and look into peoples faces. See what that is telling you. Mostly what CV sees are people who are saying. "Just let me make my own decision and stop trying to make it for me"...

I'm wondering if the President, while riding through Buffalo, NY yesterday in his limousine took time enough to glance up and see THESE faces on a billboard ad put together from some of the locals.



For you, spoonman (or anyone else)

233 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 233   Newer›   Newest»
Wes said...

wow CV, nice post

call me ahab said...

interesting post-

never heard the song before-

kid's pretty good

72bat said...

www.finviz.com May 14 calendar
Time Release Expected Prior
8:30 AM Retail Sales 0.2% 2.1%
8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto 0.5% 1.2%
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization 73.9% 73.2%
9:15 AM Industrial Production 0.8% 0.1%
9:55 AM Mich Sentiment 73.5 72.2
10:00 AM Business Inventories 0.4% 0.5%

other stats, releases due out today?

Wes said...

@ahab - not the kid, did you read what cv's thoughts?

call me ahab said...

Yoda!!

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/__Story_Inserts/graphics/__PEOPLE/B/blankfein_lloyd_3_200.jpg

call me ahab said...

wes-

I read the whole post- that's why I said it was interesting-

the comment regarding 6th graders- well I have a 6th grader- a girl- and it's a pretty accurate description- she burns up the keys texting on her phone- non-stop- talking about nothing- but hey I am not 12- so what's important to her may be hard for me to understand

McFearless said...

C,

I never even looked at the kid when I watched that video the other night, only the faces of all the girls watching him.....

McFearless said...

and what made the performance so great, for those that haven't heard the Gaga version is that he has changed the arrangement, who knows if he did it himself, but watching his other videos, I would assume that he did. Mad talent on this kid.

Anonymous said...

Here come Euro/USD parity, if markets were free.

Marketwatch.com has some interesting posts - I wonder if they are reading CV's blog -

"Euro falls to 17-month low on euro zone debt worries. France's Sarkozy repordly threatned to pull France out of Euro zone if other countries did not help Greece.."

Also from Marketwatch.com."Where To Now?..The debt mountain that brought down some banks has shiffted to governments and it's spreading.."

Banks in Canada nervous? There is large mortgage fraud case being invested by the RCMP in Calgary.

CV said...

@All

What I didn't realize when I put the embed on the video is that I used too large a pixel size (therefore the audience faces I refer to - you can't see)...

If you want to know what I'm talking about, you'll have to go to YOU TUBE and see the WIDE version... Or, I'll try and reformat the EMBED to a smaller set...

Sorry! :-/

qqqqtrader said...

C, just caught that... link

@ McF
He probably did change it himself... he even writes his own music.

C, as I read your post, what I kept thinking was many, many peeps are lazy, they're content with what they have thinking they could never change themselves... much less do the things that could make they're life better in some way.

CV said...

@qqqq

Thanks q^4

72bat said...

i too found myself watching the faces and thot the girls were looking around thinking, "what am i supposed to think of this. is he good? does anybody else think so?" none of them seemed to be able to form an independent judgment, trust their gut reaction and just get up and rock out all on their ownsome.

CV said...

@QQQQ

Re: lazy

That's the "complacency to apathy" part of the process... However - in our technologically advanced world, it appears we can skip steps...

We're in the process of skipping over DEPENDENCE... Right from apathy to bondage for us... Right in front of our eyes... Hell, we VOTED for it already...

From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependency back into bondage.”

The Administration is writing a new set of rules for us as we speak...

THE DECLARATION OF "DEPENDENCE"

CV said...

Sell em Lloyd!

karen said...

Morning!! All I did was stare at the girls faces.. also, been thinking a lot about emotions and the market.. great tie-in CV.. (I was in shock when I pulled up the post, actually.)

Bat, please.. a few more days of spills and mishaps and we'll all be better off for it!

Anonymous said...

Morning all,
Here is an amateur vid shot on the 7th of May.
It is of the Gulf.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=did-S6XbpMM&feature=player_embedded#!

foghorn

Nice post today CV

72bat said...

karen -
let me put on my waterproof asbestos depends first

karen said...

Personally, I liked my link from last night because you get to watch him on DeGeneres, see how he comports himself, etc.. and then click on link to watch the original and focus ONLY on the girls..

http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2010/05/greyson_michael_chance_the_pap.html

CV said...

@72bat

"none of them seemed to be able to form an independent judgment, trust their gut reaction and just get up and rock out all on their ownsome."

Well... all CV can say to that is that GROUPTHINK is evidence of a 6th grade mentality...

Never argue, never express, just get yourself into your little comfort zone of your little peer group...

Surround yourself with all the types of people who will just agree with you all the time... Live in a bubble...

Oh, but then PRETEND to debate things, and convince yourselves how smart you are for doing so...

Bleech!

karen said...

Business News: Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C) Lays Off 271 Call Center Employees

Oh, my! sub 1140! pls don't let me get eurphoric or it will be time to cover..

Wes said...

...for a DGDF kinda guy,

this long dollar - short euro trade has been sweeeeeet...

thanks McBen for getting me thinkin about the bucky, then with the calamity in euro land - bingo

CV said...

@foghorn

Re: Gulf Spill

Thanks for that link...

I was reading this morning that the "whisper" number is that the SPILL is 14x worse than is being reported...

The article right below was one on how the President's "approval" rating was faring with respect to the response (and comparing it - rightly or not - to KATRINA)...

Whatever... All I can say thus far is that Obama is better at "distracting" the media from bad press than Bush ever was...

Nothing to see here people... Now get the camera back on ME while I travel to Youndstown, Ohio and tell you about all the jobs I'm going to create for you people who are sitting on 15.6% unemployment (the REPORTED number)...

Hell, I hope the unemployment in Youngstown, OH isn't as bad as the gulf spill (14x)... Otherwise unemployment there would be 210%!

2 people out of a job for every one human alive!

Gonna take some real "money printin" to deal with those numbers!

Mannwich said...

Wow, looks like the EURO is now stabilized. France now wants out? Where is this all headed?

Mannwich said...

TLT back in full tilt.

CV said...

@karen

I'll re-iterate what I'd said yesterday...

I think we see the 233SMA (SPX) by May 25th...

That's down in the 1070's...

Prashant said...

Sudden moves down in Gold, Silver.
Prashant

Mannwich said...

Another fat finger? Gotta get these folks on "The Biggest Loser".

AmenRa said...

SPX back below its monthly 3LB reversal. Just two more weeks. Come on you can do it!

spoonman said...

CV,
I read your reasoning up above for making that call. Curious if you have a chart or anything like that. More interested in what your process is for making the call rather than the call itself. Your reasoning makes sense it just seems so...eclectic.

spoonman said...

haha, I had a fat finger this morning. Meant to add some puts, almost bought calls. Whoops! No harm no foul though...

Anonymous said...

@CV
At least ten times worse.
They say 5K bbls per day
Real number closer to 50K bbls per day
or 1,000,000 gallons per day.
This is the 24th day....

foghorn

Anonymous said...

@CV, love your 9:40.

Mannwich said...

Damn spoonie. You almost brought the entire market down. Unacceptable, so says Mary Schapiro.

karen said...

foghorn, i am now so depressed..

CV said...

@spoonman

It's not as eclectic as it seems...

Mostly based on FIBONACCI sequences (both with regards to levels AND time)...

I'll put up a chart later to illustrate...

Mainly, I like to extrapolate the LEVEL and TIME sequences of the FIBO levels and then plot them on a chart (which is expanded into the future)...

If I like the diagram I see, I consider it as a possibility and then try to justify that with other macro-economic events...

Those MACRO events could include:

- FOMC decisions
- bank holidays
- options expiration dates
- earnings reporting
- etc.

You know, all the things BLOOMBERG & CNBC use to explain to you why the markets moved AFTER they've moved... All the "fitting the story to the market" bullcrap...

Mannwich said...

@cv: Don't think the sheeple can "handle the truth" and its aftermaths though. We hold onto our illusions and delusions because they keep us going (and from getting at each other's throats). That's the issue. I'm convinced this IS indeed the case.

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2010/050310b.html

Anonymous said...

@CV your 13th day today?

call me ahab said...

wow-

rare unscheduled meeting at my office announced today at 12:00- never a good sign-

but that's why I never keep personal items at my office- so I can leave at a moment's notice-

"sorry- we're going to have to let you go"

"oh- okay then- see ya"- and I walk out the door- lol

Mannwich said...

More....

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/mark-ames/28354/confessions-of-a-wall-st-nihilist-forget-about-goldman-sachs-our-entire-economy-is-built-on-fraud

Mannwich said...

Blog monster again?

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/mark-ames/28354/confessions-of-a-wall-st-nihilist-forget-about-goldman-sachs-our-entire-economy-is-built-on-fraud

Mannwich said...

Reversal?

CV said...

@anon

No...yesterday was the 13th day... (and that's where the market hit it's high wave peak too)...

& guess what? it really started accelerating to the downside at 13:13 (central time - but whatever - most of the geographical land mass of the continental USA is actually in the central time zone - fractionally more than "mountain" - I think)...

call me ahab said...

manny-

I see you caught thor's picture's of his home renovations-

pretty impressive I thought- solid wood doors- don't find those much anymore

CV said...

@ahab (10:17)

My suggestion...

If they let you go... TAKE THE GOLDFISH! (Flipper)...

At least "fish" have manners...

And get "the girl" too :-)

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Yes, I did. Very nicely done. We still have our solid wood doors in our old house. Love them. Door knobs are crap though. Gotta fix them.

CV said...

@karen

You and 72bat have it EASY... All you guys need to do is spill coffee to make the market go down...

CV? I have to wear my ASSHAT (logo)...

CV is "takin' it for the team" people!

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Funny you mention that about your "meeting" and your attitude if they give you the pink slip. I remember when I was working in Finance, there were always layoffs going on at the companies that I worked for, and I couldn't seem to get laid off (and grab my severance) if I tried (and I practically did at one point). I eventually just threw in the towel and quit.

karen said...

why or why didn't i buy vxx yesterday?! I wanted to! but this market is so suckie.. hindsight is the only winner.

call me ahab said...

CV-

people laugh at me when they look at my office- I mean it's spartan- zero personal items-

so if I ever quit or am fired- I just leave- nothing to pack or take w/me-

simplicity- and no awkward moments packing shit up

72bat said...

manny -
thanks for the ames link - sorta reaches in and touches all those boils that have been festering, repressed from daily consciousness. thanks for that.

karen said...

Fear Quantitative Trading

Mannwich said...

Definitely makes you "think" or "connect the dots", if you want to go there. Most people don't for obvious reasons.

Mannwich said...

That was directed at 72bat.

Wes said...

...it's much broader than the financial markets,

once you start connecting the dots...

but, you know that manny

Mannwich said...

@Wes: Oh, I know it, for sure, and many more do to, but simply don't want to go there. They won't allow their minds go there for obvious reasons. It's hard to handle (at least at first).

Nic said...

Morning!
Euro bond yields blown out, rumour of France leaving EU or getting downgraded, crazy day.
Yens are being bought like krispy kreme once were.

Nic said...

Great post CV!

karen said...

Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) as well as several other banks are being added to the list of financial companies which are the focus of early-stage criminal investigations into their mortgage businesses and trading practice, with reports coming out trying to decide whether or not banks had misled investors and rating agencies about the securities.

The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous sources, said that some of the banks which are being investigated include JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C), Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS).

A Thursday report from the New York Times said that NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has also begun an investigation as to whether or not certain financial companies, including Bank of America Corp’s Merrill Lynch division, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, and Goldman Sachs also misled rating agencies to make mortgage-backed securities appear to be less risky.

The WSJ report said that several of the banks have received civil subpoenas from the Securities and Exchange Commission as part of its wide-reaching investigation into the bank’s selling and trading of mortgage-backed securities.

Investigators hope to determine whether or not collateralized-debt obligations (CDOs) were marketed and sold properly with all required disclosures.

To this point, prosecutors have simply been gathering data and evidence and have not issued any criminal subpoenas or have built any specific cases against any of the major financial companies in that were involved in the CDO trade.

Anonymous said...

www.ft.com/home/us. " Street battles break out in Bangkok - US and Britain close embassies in Thai capital. Thai Red Shirts defiant".

I wonder if China and India are watching and QE infinity to the moon!

Nic said...

AUDJPY which is the most closely correlated pair with UD stock indexes.

Good article

Nic said...

Hey Ho Silver McF

Nic said...

Foghorn, what a dreadful video, thank you

Anonymous said...

@Karen re mortgage fruad in Calgary -www.globeandmail/report-on-business- Police are saying they donot have resources to pursue all the evidence provided by Bank of Montreal - thousands of pieces of paper handed to police.

My take is it's just slap on the wrist.

CV said...

@spoonman (Re:10:05)

Here's what I'm talking about - FIBOS

Note: There's a new chart in the thread above if anyone wants to take a look

This is why I think we see the 1070's on May 25th...

It's the same logic I used when I made the EURO 1.29 call (to hit on May 4th) that I published back in February...

Bottom line? I was right on the previous call... I might me right (or wrong) on this one... But this is what it "looks" like to me...

I'll plot it out, and if it seems right to my brain & logic, I'll take a punt on it...

I don't need debating socieites and quantatative opinions from Nobel laureates to make my own decisions.

If I'm wrong, I'll cut my losses and move on to the next challenge...

spoonman said...

Thanks for the chart CV. Interesting and helpful.

AmenRa said...

My bad. Trading below monthly 3LB mid.

AmenRa said...

Got a little too excited.

call me ahab said...

gaddam manny-

that Ames link is a show- talk about long- but I couldn't stop reading-

good stuff there

CV said...

@Amen

It would be nice to get below 1110 to end the week tho :-)

call me ahab said...

alright gotta roll out to my 12:00 unscheduled office meeting-

maybe they're shutting the office down-

or maybe it's to tell us what a great job we're doing- lol


CV- c'mon- we know those wheels inside your head are always turning-

later

Anonymous said...

Last comment got ate,
that is probably a good thing.

foghorn

Mannwich said...

@ahab: I thought so as well. I forwarded it to my wife, who thankfully still listens to my screeds.

AmenRa said...

Fibo levels using close of 1157.44:

.1459= 1140.55 (check)
.236= 1130.12 (coming soon to a monitor near you)
.382= 1113.23 (go get Katy)
.50= 1099.57 (TSHTF run don't walk to the exits)

karen said...

fwiw, dto has reversed on the p&f chart.. bullish price objective 102..

another two weeks of down in crude to go.. if recent history is my guide.

CV said...

@Amen

Oh no! You mentioned "Katherine" (and her trusty crowbar)...

Anonymous said...

Via, Trader Mark -www.fundmymutalfund.com.

"Bears be aware of green Monday". So that means watch for shorts covering in the afternoon today?

CV said...

If anyone is curious on my reaction to BIDU... My "cost basis" on that short was 81.60 (missed the absolute top)...

But I'll probably hedge out a wave 1 trough at around 70.50... (holding on to the original SHORT)...

72bat said...

manny -
my sibs would rather i not send them such datapoints or reality checks

CV said...

@anon

When that sequence hits something like 27 out 0f 31 in a row... It's a logical thought process...

Markets don't ALWAYS behave "logically" though...

If they did, I suspect we'd RARELY see 27 out of 31 Mondays Green in the first place...

If you get my drift...

Anonymous said...

That vid was shot May 7, fully 17 days into this crisis.
Obummer authorized the Navy right after this happened,
How many Navy vessels did you see in the vid?

This is an "ALL HANDS ON DECK" crisis.
Where are the containment booms?
Where are the fires where they are burning this off?
They got a bunch of shrimp boats dragging around little baby booms, what a frigging JOKE.

Oh and this little vid they trotted out of the "leak" is just the smallest of whatever is leaking.
I have heard terms like "volcano of oil" but can't find any supporting docs.

http://www.drillingahead.com/video/video/show?id=3116006%3AVideo%3A101602

What you don't see in this vid is the REAL problem area, the BOP stack.

foghorn

karen said...

Then again, USO also has a bullish PO of 57.. ha! they both can't hit those targets at the same time. This is for sure!

karen said...

anyone following crude but me ? laughing.. look at uso.. headed sub 34?

I'm also PRAYING that is a bearish rising wedge in $gaso.. $1.80 first.. $1.60 as a floor?

I-Man said...

Rastarazzi...

McFearless said...

wow, busy morning. There was one girl in particular in that video that clearly fell in love with the kid, dirty blonde hair, black shirt, back row.

King dollar!

McFearless said...

@Nic,

Yes, feeling better about the silver short today!

Mannwich said...

@72bat: Yeah, most of my family and friends don't want to "go there" either, but I have a few (including my wife, thankfully) who will, and who don't think I'm completely off my rocker (or maybe they do and just don't tell me to my face!). Ha!

Nic said...

Karen I am following and agree about bearish rising wedge.

McFearless said...

oh man, CNBS will say anything:

Why pessimism can be good for profits- CNBC

Mannwich said...

@ben: There's always a bull market somewhere!

McFearless said...

wow, spain....lol

This is what I think of when all these finance ministers get up and tell lies:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro

I-Man said...

1126

72bat said...

manny -
the youngest sib (v.a. doctor) allowed a year ago that i was "obsessing with all this market stuff"
yeah, i'm off my rocker

Mannwich said...

@72bat: Well, once you allow yourself to "go there", it's hard to "go back". That's why most don't do it. I can't turn it off now.

Mannwich said...

"Thinking is hard".

Mannwich said...

Mortimer, Mortimer! Turn those machines back on!

karen said...

bat, i may not have any friends left.. two people this week have told me i was obsessing, so i'm no longer "sharing' with them! and that wasn't even about the market.. they don't know what obsessing is!

CV said...

@I-Man

Lol...

So much for FAT FINGERS... How about FAT LIES?

Including what our "Commander in Chief" is hiding from us in the Gulf...

Now just wait until one of Al Gore's "hurricanes" comes along later in the summer and dumps that shizz all over the SE United States...

Nic said...

CV - is your avatar a picture of LB on holiday? Oh no wait - this one is:
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/123/352840552_7a9a0a6ec7_o.jpg

karen said...

oh, come on, i want to at least get to 1119-1120.. (bottom bb)

I-Man said...

I've been unplugged since Wed evening... what did I miss?

Mannwich said...

@cv: Makes me glad I live in a land-locked state (but with plenty of water)!

I-Man said...

whats a bollinger band?

CV said...

@Mannwich (12:02)

Oh is that how it goes... CV had it wrong...

I thought it was "there's always BS somewhere"...

I should pay closer attention...

karen said...

Nic, I hate that foto! all those frightening moustaches..

CV, Fat Lies is good.. put it up there with the Control You Can Believe in slogan.

CV said...

@I-Man

bollinger band... RU serious with that question?

CV said...

@karen

wait... I spelled it wrong...

It's "PHAT LIES"...

Mannwich said...

You still have us, karen. LOL. Virtual "friends".

Mannwich said...

Comments disappearing again. CV, are you eliminating my posts, BR-style? ;-)

I-Man said...

jk, k...

1126 was just one of my swing targets, probably bounce there, and then close around your bb.

But like I said, been unplugged, so not exactly tuned in.

I see the EURUSD got absolutely shelacked overnight...

Nic, will try to catch Floored again after I'm done in I and I field...

Thx for the heads up on the link.

CV said...

@k

We're going much below 1120 my lady...

Not sure if TODAY... but most assuredly...YES

CV said...

@Manny

yup... But please refrain from questioning me on the subject or I'll be forced to declare you a raving lunatic... or a "Uni-bomber"... lol

Mannwich said...

Nah, it's all good. All of us can't always get along all the time given all the time that we spend here every day. And everyone's "different", bringing their own views on things. It's all good to me.

CV said...

@McF (12:03)

Wow! The "Spain=Kevin Bacon" connection...

I didn't realize you to were an afficianado of "The Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon"... All I can say is... "Respect" :-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degrees_of_Kevin_Bacon

karen said...

It's not even 9:30/12:30 yet!

I-Man said...

I'm going to have that song stuck in my head for a week...

Nic said...

So what do we reckon to a gap closure by EOD today in the S+P or do you think its support?

I-Man said...

Nic, dont have charts handy, but wasnt 1126 gap support?

I think thats why I had it tagged, that and some trendlines converge there.

Could hold for today, and set up a little clavadista for Monday...

Following your analog theme, if you follow me...

CV said...

@Nic

Unfortunately... (or "fortunately", as the case may be)... We've established a NEW INDICATOR...

It's the "CV ASSHAT INDICATOR"...

I'm not sure what it means exactly yet... Let's do some analysis...

- Since CV donned the "asshat"... The S&P has tanked 3% in 4 trading hours...

- The problem is, CV always thought of himseld as somewhat of an "asshat" anyway...

So what is it?

- Is it the "behaviour"?
- Is it the "costume"?
- Is it a combination of BOTH?

I mean, what if I take the hat off? Will the markets rally? (wouldn't want that)... Or do I just "comport" myself better? If I did that and the markets went to NEW HIGHS would everyone be satisfied?

This is TRULY a dilemma!

karen said...

CV, does your brain ever shut down?! LOL

CV said...

@Nic (12:26)

FWIW -

I'm going for the FULL GAP CLOSURE... today...

1110 or bust!

CV said...

@karen (12:34)

huh? (with blank stare - for effect)...:-)

I-Man said...

Cant believe we're already at 86 on the DXY... didnt think it would happen so fast, when I posted this:

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/04/usd-index-weekly-annotation.html#comments


Its actually kind of giving me pause here... either we surge to 89 on some kind of sheer terror in risk "assets" early next week... or we retrace... dont have a retrace target yet.

Really dont know what to expect for next week, but probably mayhem.

72bat said...

@ karen -
polymathitis - it's a problem

CV said...

@karen

Beware... If CV's brain ever shut down, there would immediately form a rip in the fabric of the universe...

The Hadron Supercollider in CERN is but a mere tinkertoy...

Just be glad that I don't live somewhere around the San Andreas Fault line... Otherwise, you'd be at perpetual risk of having your house fall into the ocean!

CV said...

@72bat (12:39)

Not bad!... Now all you need is a cool PHOTO to go with that text and you could send it to "DEMOTIVATEUS" and have a good poster made :-)

I-Man said...

Enjoy the show I-veryone... I-Man is out to work in Jah sun.

McFearless said...

"We're going much below 1120 my lady..."


yeah, too many 1's on there, lol.

McFearless said...

re: spain/bacon

who knew it was that easy.

ALL IS WELL!!!!!!!!!!

CV said...

@72bat

The Greek term is "πολυμαθής"...

But CV's favorite GREEK extrapolation is

"POLITICS"

which is derived from the Greek:

"POLY" - meaning "many"
&
"TICS" - meaning "blood sucking insects"

I-Man said...

word, sound, and power bro.

Nic said...

Well if you follow Steve Nison and falling and rising windows that gap might be some support, so be good to see it go.

McFearless said...

Im' trying to cover more puts, there might be one more whoosh into the close if we are in wave 4 which would serve as five down of 1 of 3 (sorry, not labeling the degrees)...I'm hoping I'll be ninja enough to buy more puts in the wave 2 retrace so I'm around for 3 of 3. I've nailed CAT June puts 4 times now in the last two weeks so now I don't feel so bad for having initially missed them.

As an aside, EWI, for any other readers, fwiw, i think they have the degree labeled wrong on their market charts. They are calling the big drop Intermediate 1. I dont' see how that can be if I do the ratio analysis on the rest of it because it won't match the price predicted for Primary wave 3. Very likely to be re-labeled, they made this same mistake with silver.

McFearless said...

C,

POLY/Tics

classic.

and don't forget, tics hate soap....they prefer to stay dirrrty like XTina.

Mannwich said...

"Odd Smells in New Orleans Conjure Up Thoughts of the Gulf"

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/15/us/15smell.html?hp

Mannwich said...

Test

CV said...

@Nic

My sense IS that they will let it go... But then surely come back to it...

Take a look at the chart I put at the tail end of the thread today (if you havent already)...

I think we're going to finish that WEDGE from before (that we broke out of)... NOTE: how the level of the first major thrust off that wedge was in the 1120 zone...

The day we did that was a 13:1 up day...

I'm saying now that action ABOVE & BELOW that level is "weak/short term trading"...

So my idea is that we go BELOW now (in a panic)... Come back OVER (in ANOTHER PANIC - for momos to make their quarters before the end of June)...

But we'll narrow that wedge as summer progresses...

That's my offering!

CV said...

@McF (1:01)

FWIW- I like your strategy there...

Today was a good move... Take the profits... While I still think there's more meat on the bone, in this environment, I'm finding it's NOT PAYING to be a "glutton"...

Furthermore... That's probably a GREAT STRATEGY in P3 (so why not "acclimate" yourself to those habits)?

CV said...

@Manny

You know? I know I'm the "butt of jokes" here for starting my TILAPIA farm...

But seriously... Wait a few months and see what happens to the PRICE of seafood in coming months if this Gulf thing really gets out of hand...

"Farmed Fish" IS NOT, technically, seafood... But fish is fish (to many)...

If you can't get one (due to scarcity), you switch to the other...

I'm not interested in the "delicate palates" of Long Islanders... I'm interested in THE MARKET...

McFearless said...

C,

I still can't say for sure if this is the start of the big move down, i do like that a lot of people that were in the P3 camp have abandon that view though. Still, since I won't know for sure until it's already on its way, I'm inclined to take profits when I get them, and 60% plus on a put in a day I'd take every day of the week....if only it were that easy.

CV said...

@Manny

What's started in the Gulf isn't a 20 day problem...

They're wiping out an entire ecosystem for the next DECADE as we speak...

CV said...

@McF

It's RARELY that easy...

You know it... & that's why you're a prudent manager...

Nic said...

McF
I would like to hear more about your wave analysis and where you think we are / are going when you have time :) XXX

McFearless said...

ok, I like to warn you guys about stuff like this:

We had several clients positioned in the dollar earlier this year, some of my more affluent clients thought my view of a big dollar rally was silly and didn't want to do the trade.

I got a call from two of them today asking if it was still a good time to buy the dollar.

Dollar bulls are way too high, people think the Euro is going to zero.

I'm not saying this is the top for the dollar, but this is the opposite extreme of what we saw last fall in the dollar/early winter.

I still think the dollar goes much higher from here but in the near term it's def. due for a pullback. I'm looking forward to see if I-man/Andy have any charts in the next week or so. My own position and clients is already off the table at this point but I'm looking for a new entry point on the next drop.

CV said...

@McF (1:21)

x1000

Give CV a little nod here because way back in the end of January (I know you remember this), many were saying that bucky was completing an A-B-C and I asked you personally if you didn't think it was setting up for a "running 3"...

But you're right... Now that it is a 5, it's time to ditch (for a bit)...

Frankly though - I don't see it having a DIRECT effect on the rest of the overall spectrum...

This is a lot like 2007 (where everything traded dis-jointed for long periods)...

Anonymous said...

From here:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Gulf-Of-Mexico-Oil-Spill-BP-Boss-Tony-Hayward-Says-The-Leak-Is-Tiny-Compared-To-Entire-Ocean/Article/201005215631647?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header_2&lid=ARTICLE_15631647_Gulf_Of_Mexico_Oil_Spill:_BP_Bo

----------------------------------
In an interview with The Guardian newspaper he said: "The Gulf of Mexico is a very big ocean.
"The amount of volume of oil and dispersant we are putting into it is tiny in relation to the total water volume."
But speaking to The Times newspaper he said: "I think I will be judged by the response. I don't feel my job is on the line but of course that might change."
Mr Hayward, who has been at BP for 28 years, said he has had trouble sleeping and has received hate mail since the Deepwater Horizon blew up.
He has deployed four Hercules aircraft to spray dispersants and more than 500 vessels to skim oil off the surface.
Around 5,000 small fishing boats are also laying out 1.2 million feet of booms to help to defend the coastlines of under-threat states Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

---------------------------------

See ya'll, no big deal.
The Gulf is BIG.

Criminal charges today Obummer.
You have TALKED this fucker to death.

foghorn

Manny,
Worked in NO for two years,
it is the stinkiest place on earth, bar none.

CV said...

Speaking of DISJOINTED...

Wanna know what CV is thinking of?

I'm thinking of taking a STAB at Citigroup if it hits $3.50...

I say it hits $3.50... Then regains back to $4.50 by JULY earnings reporting...

A cool 30%...

If anyone makes that trade (on CV's advice)... They're a DAMN FOOL!...

McFearless said...

Nic,

In reality I'm still struggling to label the damn Flash crash, I can count as 5 or 3 but I think in another couple of days I can really pin down the count and I'll put actual figures up when I do have them....for now I'm trying to count the smaller squiggles due to that damn Thursday candle.

CV said...

@foghorn

The amount of water in an aquarium of fish DWARFS a droplet of "cyanide" (if it were to be introduced)...

So go ahead, put a droplet in... Then see what it does to the plants & fish inside...

CV said...

@foghorn

That's not a lecture TO YOU my friend... I know you already know this...

McFearless said...

C,

when Susan Boyle says she wants to be paid only in dollars we'll call an intermediate top, ha!

CV said...

@McF

All I did with the FLASH CRASH was "step it down" to the 1110 close last Friday... (which was a FIBO number equal to the "corrections" of last June & January)...

That was the KISS solution for CV...

Mannwich said...

I personally vote for bringing back public tarring and feathering of scoundrels like that d-bag at BP and the jackals on Wall Street.

McFearless said...

C,

I do remember the ABC look the dollar had back in Jan. At one point I think a lot of wavers got really hesitant because A=C perfectly which would have foreshadowed much more downside.

mcHAPPY said...

Have totally ignored everything the last couple of days market related except checked the close before bed last night. Just checked markets today.... nice. Glad I didn't do anything rash with the TZA especially looking at oil today. If I had just held on for another few weeks all my dollar cost averaging would have paid off as I would be in single digits losses overall.... such is life I guess.

Ben,

Reading through comments, I'm glad Nic asked your opinion on the labeling. I took your advice and I have immersed myself in some basics of EW. After going from 30% up to 15% down in 4 trading days, I will have to start paying much more attention to wave structure.

MY interpretation of current count of EWI versus this one at A part of NY is regardless of if the flash crash is a 3 or 5 we are due for a bump higher Monday. I would be inclined to label it a 5 but we did not breach 1181 so the bounce very well could have been a 4. Any new thoughts since response to Nic?

McFearless said...

McHappy,

I'll say more at the close, for now I'm going to wait though...I need to see more.

As for that 45% swing, love that leverage. Lol.

In the words of Hova: It's the gift and the curse.

McFearless said...

I've always enjoyed our Socionomic discussions together here and at the other sites about sports.

Check this out:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-lebroncalipari051410

The Cav's were pathetic these last few games, Boston got a straw that reached across the room into the Cav's milkshake and they drank it up!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHpM5US2HDs

Mannwich said...

And as a Celtics fan, I loved every minute of it, Ben.

Mannwich said...

That's a great scene, ben! Classic.

McFearless said...

Manny,

Those guys look so hungry right now and Rondo is playing out of his head. I can't wait to watch the series with the Magic. I think it's going to be great.

Mannwich said...

Test

mcHAPPY said...

Not sure if anyone remembers page 3 of Andy's Sunday night charts, but have a look.

His bullish chart on the dollar has been spot on.

Tie this in with Ra's 3LB and Lara's counts, Bucky has a little way to go.

Lara is looking for the end of wave 3 black at either 88 or 93.

Ra is eyeing 91.8 on the .1459 fibo.

Bucky is strong.

I hope Andy does an update of his bullish interpretation this weekend.

Mannwich said...

@ben: Agreed. Rondo has been a pleasure to watch. And he's only 24! Just getting better and better and the older guys seem healthy now (and rested since they didn't play big minutes in the regular season). I don't like the match ups vs. Orlando though. Orlando much more balanced than Cleveland and Howard's ability to block and alter shots in the paint scares me. Need to get him in foul trouble a lot. The thing the Celts having going for them is they're not afraid of the road games and have played better on the road this year than at home. This is a big advantage in the postseason. They simply don't fall apart on the road like some teams do. That makes this team dangerous. And the bench is playing well now with guys like Tony Allen Sheed (finally) stepping up.

Mannwich said...

Test

mcHAPPY said...

I understand why LB said he liked my trade of FXP for TZA, just not the timing. Looking back (i.e. hindsight is always 20/20) it was quite clear. I think maybe with a little more knowledge of EW and the realization prices are bouncing all the time, never straight though, I may avoid the 45% swings. Had I recognized this (especially if I had taken profits last Friday - even half) I would be in some pretty mad coin right now, but alas, I digress.

mcHAPPY said...

Rondo has been working on his jump shot since his first year. If he can become even an average shooter in his mid and long range, he will be a force.... and yes, he is only 24, crazy.

mcHAPPY said...

Forgot to mention that Rondo has improved every year on his shot - not his foul shot though.

72bat said...

after standing pat last friday afternoon and letting short etf's ride over the weekend, facing the same dilemma today, only difference... 5% down from last friday.
sharing mchappy's pain

CV said...

WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama on Friday angrily decried the "ridiculous spectacle" of oil industry officials pointing fingers of blame for the catastrophic spill in the Gulf of Mexico...

So wait... let me get this straight...

Mr. "We "inherited" this crisis"... blame it on EVERYONE all the way back to the pharoahs of Egypt...

Now... Now he points yet another finger at the "blamers"?

Bad blamers! Bad you!

Does this guy go to bed every night and try to dream up NEW WAYS to be a f****** idiot?

mcHAPPY said...

@bat

No, it is not fun. I never sold anything so I've bounced back today. As of now back in the green by about 6% or so thanks to FAZ.

72bat said...

mchappy -
yah, i've bounced back too, but entered much earlier; thus would have been 5% less underwater selling last friday. jus' saying.
was looking for 1120 today.

McFearless said...

Manny/McHappy
Howard is the key. If they get him into foul trouble early, which he's been prone to, Boston should be able to win.

Vince Carter has really been playing well and you are right, those guys are much better all around than Cleveland. There aren't many NBA fans out there but I'm really looking forward to watching.

Rondo has gotten so much better since his KU days, if he can start shooting better from the line then look out. I guess when you play with three hall of famers you grow up quick.

I can't help but think if LeBron turns this into a big spectacle about him "getting his" then it'll end up biting him AND the NBA right in the ass.

mcHAPPY said...

LeBron is most definitely the poster child for the "me" generation. I use to like the guy but after sporting an MVP t-shirt the day after he won last year - no sir, not my cup of tea.

As for "W"ince Carter, I'm a Raptors fan... enough said. I have a feeling Bosh spurns Raps just like T-Mac and VC before. The only difference is I kind of hope he leaves. Too much money tied up in a very good PF but he will not win on his own - which is what the Raps would be left with him.

I am more interested in what happens with Chicago. I think they are the dark horse in free agency this summer. Plug in Wade or James with Rose, Noah, and a healthy Deng.... that is a good team.

CV said...

@72bat

"was looking for 1120 today"

You still might get it...

@Manny @McHappy

Rondo? Beast this past series & agreed the series with the Magic should be great...

That said...

Rondo & LeBron might both be looking for new new skills in a couple of years when P3 takes full effect...

Well, probably not THAT bad... But CV sees some SERIOUS "whittling down" of NBA franchises... Among other things...

Nic said...

Karen
Some real estate porn for you:
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-tepper-hamptons-mansion-2010-5#-1

mcHAPPY said...

@bat,

Shortin' ain't easy, nor is pimpin'.

Back to the labelling of the chart, I am leaning towards the flash crash having ended something, and think the 5 would be best suited and the 2 days floating around 1170 being a 2 of Wave 1 in P3?

Any thoughts?

Mannwich said...

Yeah, Howard is the key but Carter is a wild card. I'm impressed with his play this year but he's never won anything and I still wonder if he's a bit "soft" (a label he's had for a long time now. A great talent but not sure he's playoff hardened and a "winner", so to speak. This leads me to think the Celts will hammer him physically and test his mettle and mental toughness a bit. Watch this series get chippy very quickly. The Celtics have to play physical to win and I think they will.

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

You think the NBA would have it bad... imagine NHL! LOL. You know things are getting bad when there is talk of returning franchises to Winnipeg and Quebec City. Personally I think it would be the best thing the NHL could do... although with Bucky up around 125, maybe not.

CV said...

BIDU

Ha! Despite what CV said earlier about potentially "covering" the shorts at 70.50...

They couldn't even get past 61,8% of the retrace of todays low overthrow back to the .09 FIBO of 74.85...

Therefore... CV is in the bag for at least another 50 cents...

Doesn't sound like much, I know... But then again, it depends on how much you have at stake :-)...

Mannwich said...

Yep, all professional and quasi-professional (D-1 NCAA) sports is heading for a contraction of some sort. Not going to be pretty.

mcHAPPY said...

@Manny,

Wince played well at times but overall I thought he was a bust. Much like Rasheed. But when you are older and been through the paces, you know when to turn it on.

I did watch Wince play in November in Toronto. He played sh*tty first half but took over in the 2nd. Toronto fans need to know when to stop booing!

Anonymous said...

So 24 DAYS into his Oil Hurricane and he is now getting MAD?

What he going to do, tell BP he won't take their cash and look the other way?

Whatcha gonna do Bad Boy?

Cue the music;
Whatcha gonna do when they come for you?

foghorn

CV said...

@McF

Tell that dude in your office (who liked BIDU the other day) that some "short covering" will be pouring in in the 70.50 - 70.00 range)... LOL

Tell him you heard it "from the farm"...

Mannwich said...

I love that nickname - "Wince". LOL. It fits.

Mannwich said...

Wince playes "pretty" but the playoffs ain't about "pretty", as Lebron is finding.

CV said...

@foghorn

I forgot to mention to send my regards to "Miss Prissy" (in the previous comments)... VERY ungentlemanly of me...

karen said...

Oh, thanks for that Nic, laughing.. did you read the single comment? "I need to make more money."

CV said...

@Nic

And MOSES said unto PHARAOH...

"Let my people go... Or the wrath of GOD will unleash unto thee the curse of 7 plagues"

"He shall let oil gush from the depths of the ocean, to rise to the surface. And a TERRIBLE hurricane wind will arise to suck up that oil into the sky and DEPOSIT on the lawns of the moneychangers so that they may EAT black slime"

So let it be written... so let it be DONE!

AmenRa said...

Is is time for the fire drill/

CV said...

@Amen

Yup!

CV said...

@Amen

Sadly... CV is pegging 1112 instead of 1110

CV said...

Hope I'm WRONG

mcHAPPY said...

I'm also inclined to think the flash crash was a 5 because I think the R2000 went to high for it to have been a 4th wave. Could anyone confirm that? I know they are a different index from one another but in this all the same market environment, it could mean something.

Anonymous said...

Europe = Marge Simpson www.ritholtz.com.

"There a rumor going around of potential France downgrade..". Ha. Now I know why the French were threating to leave the Euro zone if Germany and GB didn't help out Greece.

Covering their ASS!

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

1112? You peg for the day close? Or did I miss something else?

Seattle Chill said...

So now they're blaming the "flash crash" on Waddell. Still no mention in the MSM of the wild activity in the Yen crosses or the anomalous ETF trading that preceded the "unexpected" crash.

It's like that old fable about the three blind men and the elephant, only in this case, there are hundreds of blind men, and they're all describing the same small part of the elephant.

McFearless said...

lol C, his office door has been closed all day, usually is on red days.

McHappy,

I grew up about an hour and half south of Niagra Falls so when we were old enough to drink in Canada we used to drive up so we could get some Blue in a real bar! I watched VC win the dunk contest up there as a Raptor at a place called International Beer Gardens (I think) which was close to the Casino in Niagra Falls. A few hours after that we were kicked out of the Casino on that particular trip.

CV said...

Here... I'm changing hats...

Hopefully to HELP IT ALONG...

If I'm wrong, I'll gladly don the former hat...

AmenRa said...

SC

The day had traded lower on high volume before the "flash crash". It just started hitting stop levels with ruthless abandon.

CV said...

Anyway...

We'll know in about 1 minute if the PPT is "on the job" today...

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