Morning Audibles 5.12.10 - Control You Can Believe In

Sometimes you read a comment and it just makes you laugh... The process spirals off into it's own universe... The markets will tell you which direction they're going to head soon enough (probably by tomorrow - which will be DAY 13), but we might as well start getting a handle on election SLOGANS for 2012...

The first one was a contribution, the rest, well, kind of followed suit...








 


 



As for your humble blog host... Now THIS is the sort of CONTROL I can believe in...

 

After all, we did elect this guy because he was so... "SMART"... Right?


228 comments:

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Anonymous said...

test.

AmenRa said...

Went to bed with dreams of carnage after looking at futures. Woke up this morning to futures higher. Did I wake up in Wonderland? Why are futures higher? So I went back to sleep hoping to wake up from this nightmare.

Anonymous said...

test. test. test.
blogger not allowing posts using Name/URL.
receiving blogger message bX-fh6cn9
- 72bat

I-Man said...

Politics are babylon... me no want no part in them tricks.

72bat said...

pre-market tried to post this:
"wery, wery quiet" out there this morning. macro-man left a void but not THAT big of a void.
from Hussman's may 10 letter, a view not articulated much in the msm:
"Looking at the current state of the world economy, the underlying reality remains little changed: there is more debt outstanding than is capable of being properly serviced. It's certainly possible to issue government debt in order to bail out one borrower or another (and prevent their bondholders from taking a loss). However, this means that for every dollar of bad debt that should have been wiped off the books, the world economy is left with two - the initial dollar of debt that has been bailed out and must continue to be serviced, and an additional dollar of government debt that was issued to execute the bailout.
"Notice also that the capital that is used to provide the bailout goes from the hands of savers into the hands of bondholders who made bad investments. We are not only allocating global savings to governments. We are further allocating global savings precisely to those who were the worst stewards of the world's capital. From a productivity standpoint, this is a nightmare. New investment capital, properly allocated, is almost invariably more productive than existing investment, and is undoubtedly more productive than past bad investment. By effectively re-capitalizing bad stewards of capital, at the expense of good investments that could otherwise occur, the policy of bailouts does violence to long-term prospects for growth. Looking out to a future population that will increasingly rely on the productivity of a smaller set of younger workers (and foreign labor) in order to provide for an aging demographic, this is not a luxury that our nation or the world can afford.
"Failure" and "restructuring" mean only that bondholders don't get 100 cents on the dollar. We can continue to bail out the poor stewards of capital who voluntarily made bad, unproductive investments, and waste our future productivity in order to make those lenders whole, or we can turn the debate toward deciding the best strategies for restructuring existing debt."
thus i'm pessimistic for the outlook for my daughter's generation

Nic said...

The blogger dog has eaten a lot of my homework this morning.

AmenRa said...

Finally. i kept getting an error when trying to comment. Blogger needs to fix these common problems. From what I can tell they don't even read their own support pages. Sheesh.

call me ahab said...

posting issues this morning- everyone having the same problem?

anway- good slogans CV- here's another-

Why Work? Vote Obama 2102

or

Vote Obama 2012. It’s Easier Than Thinking

72bat said...

oops. didn't appreciate how many column inches that occupies.

karen said...

Yes, I thot everyone was in hiding this morning, but it is blogspot : (
AR, I was wondering the same! It is called CYCBI !!

call me ahab said...

. . .or this-

Vote Obama: Satan compels you

or this-

Help Eradicate Capitalism in Our Time

Nic said...

So the IEA release their crude demand forecast this morning and for the first time in a year they reduce their forecast and crude goes up 20 pips. Last week crude dropped 7 bucks and didn't bounce. You think they told their friends first?

AmenRa said...

Karen

I was ready to go ballistic! Probably just GS messing with anyone who doesn't agree with how they do business.

CV said...

test

CV said...

finally!

Alot of EATEN text this morning... (I thought BIG BROTHER was watching & shutting us down)... and here I was all ready to blame it all on McF...

CV said...

Anybody have a clue what turned around the futures? (besides realizing that it was only DAY 12 - and the wave isn't allowed to reverse until wave 13)?

CV said...

"day" 13

mcHAPPY said...

Nothing but a big bank BAILOUT - AGAIN. But we already knew that.

AmenRa said...

Baidu did their 10:1 reverse split.

AmenRa said...

CV

Heard that Spain instituted austerity measures. 5% cut in public pay and no pension increase in 2011. Or something like that.

mcHAPPY said...

Gone for a couple of hours. Hopefully Johnny's is finished at the trough by noon.

McFearless said...

test?

McFearless said...

man I couldn't post all morning.

Nic,

I like the short silver idea but also like the tight stop, we are stepping in front of the train here.

C,

Funny post. It's not change, but the other C-word.

McFearless said...

thoughts on this headline?:

How to buy record-high gold- TheStreet

call me ahab said...

"Anybody have a clue what turned around the futures?"

well CV- I guess you must have missed this headline- lol-

"Macy's Swings to Profit as Sales Pick Up"- CNBC

CV said...

@Amen (10:07)

Well that ought to cure the problem lickety split...

Tell me then... With "Spaniards" taking a 5% cut, what are they going to buy I-Phones with?

AAPL up 2%, NOK up 1%, RIMM up 2%

CV said...

I like Nic's "other" idea (other thread)...

Let CS retrace back to 50... then short the hell out of it!

McFearless said...

C, 10:01

ha! maybe this really was the 2012 slogan idea.

call me ahab said...

b22- I like that headline-

but why buy now when you can buy it higher later

I-Man said...

I-Man is starting to feel a little wary of the yellow metal here...

Something just doesnt seem right.

I smell a trap... a very large trap.

McFearless said...

ahab,

lol, I was thinking the same thing, the headline is funny.

Cool bike, ever take it off any sweet jumps?

call me ahab said...

. . .you know- get in when it's really on fire- and even more expensive-

then you know it's a lock that it is a wise investment

call me ahab said...

b22-

love that Napoleon Dynamite reference- a very funny movie there-

that motorcycle you see is from one of the best movie scenes of all time

McFearless said...

What movie?

I-Man said...

I just found myself wondering last night when I couldnt sleep, about how many smart people feel that gold is a layup here, with all the sovereign debt issues... euro bank garbage... currency dislocation... etc.

How much gold do european sovereigns own, and how much do euro banks own...?
(I dont know)

And what is their prized "asset"... one which they may all be forced to unload at once, due to what may appear as "unforeseen consequences"?
(I think, that might be...)

Gold.

Anyone following me here?

The great irony in all of this, is just like the dollar bears were early (wrong), the bond market implosionists were early (wrong), the gold bugs will be early (wrong)...

All of those camps will ultimately be "right"... but just not yet.

King Dollar and Queen Govie... the only place to be.

I-Man said...

I mean really... check a 1min GLD chart while I was even typing that... something is up.

call me ahab said...

Steve McQueen jumping the fences in the Great Escape of course

McFearless said...

that's basically my take I-man. I think you'll be able to buy gold again in 3 digits as the deflation runs its course. I certainly take the other side of the consensus argument, which is that all central banks can perform QE as long as they want to. This belief also defies history.

I still think most people getting in gold right now are betting in inflation.... which completely ignores much.

Nic said...

Its such a dumb level to buy Gold at, that is what freaks me. When something makes a new high and just sits there without taking off its a big flashing warning to me

I-Man said...

I knew you would feel me on that Ben...

And when the carnage is over... aussie miners.

McFearless said...

I,

I just hope I (we) are not left in the dust on this one...I made a mistake not trying to accumulate some physical in late 2008.

call me ahab said...

I like the tungsten 3X ETF CV and I were discussing a few weeks back-

that's going to take off like wildfire

I-Man said...

EURUSD getting damn precarious...

I think you have to take a stab on the SPX short side with this second reject at 1170 level...

Kill it, DL.

I-Man said...

McF...

The I has no money anyway really, so not concerned.

Gold can leave me in the dust just fine... The I wont cry, wisdom is I-ternal.

But, you can always make friends with the reclusive old guy who owns the rare coin shop in your town...

We all got one.

McFearless said...

1170 range proving tough for the bulls right now, we sold off into the close yesterday as well, the last 12 months it would have been more likely we got a big rally that started around 20 after 3 EST.

lots of bulls out there put/call well below 1 this morning.

thursday was all just a bad dream....or was it?

CV said...

@I-Man

I agree with what you (&Nic &McF) say about gold...

I'm not on board with the idea that the European soverigns will ever part with what they have...

You NEVER burn your last match... NEVER...

That's your ultimate "restart" kit... Even it only a small band of crooks makes off with the loot... Hey - You could always start a "Lichtenstein" with it!

CV said...

Liechtenstein

McFearless said...

ahab,

that or the tin foil etf....

unfortunately I'm also long poison ivy again, but I usually am according to my "seasonal model"

CV said...

That's what's FUNNY to me about all the GOLDBUGS...

They think they're going to be the last ones standing when the SHTF...

It's GOVERNMENTS that need gold to reboot at the end...

People would be better off with food & water...

72bat said...

cv no doubt will appreciate chris martenson's Power Outage: Lessons Learned

CV said...

@72bat

CV has backup upon backup upon backup...

No one thinks about it until they arrive at that moment and say... "Now what if THIS fails?... How can it be re-created, or jerryrigged...

Funny thing to me is watching on TV people (say, down in Florida), who run to Home Depot for (wood & nails), or to the grocery store (for water) because they hear that a hurricane is barreling down on them...

They find that ALL THE SHELVES ARE BARE...

Too late... Sorry!

Anonymous said...

Here is some more Gulf info

From here:
http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/updates_from_oil_rig_explosion_1.html

"At 2100 (9 p.m.) we were advised to await transfer. Some time after that, my mate, who was also on watch with me - I was at my desk, back to back with him, finishing up on some paperwork - and he advised me there was mud coming out the top of the rig. Kind of a black rain. Coming down on my boat. At first I was kind of annoyed because I thought we had a broken hose. But when I saw the magnitude of the mud, I closed the well doors. I looked up to the derrick and saw mud coming out (the) top of (the) derrick. I called the rig and asked what was going on. And they advised they were having trouble with the well. After that they advised me to go to 500 meter standby. Then there was a pause in their response and shortly after that the first explosion on the rig occurred."

--------------------------------------
The link above has a good time line

foghorn

72bat said...

while cv is far, far ahead of the curve in terms preparedness over the vast majority, one thing i wonder about: being well-prepared on your lonely-only is fine as far as it can go, but in a truly dire apocalyptic scenario how does one maintain if there is no "it takes a village" community in which to swim?

Anonymous said...

Here is the official Halliburton statement:
http://www.roughneckcity.com/uploads/ProbertTestimony_5-11-2010.pdf



"....Approximately  20  hours  prior  to  the  catastrophic  loss  of  well  control,  Halliburton  had  completed  the 
cementing of the ninth and final production casing string in accordance with the well program.  
Following  the  placement  of  51  barrels  of  cement  slurry,  the  casing  seal  assembly  was  set  in  the  casing 
hanger.  In  accordance  with  accepted  industry  practice,  as  required  by  MMS  and  as  directed  by  the  well 
owner,  a  positive  pressure  test  was  then  conducted  to  demonstrate  the  integrity  of  the  production  casing 
string.  The  results  of  the  positive  test  were  reviewed  by  the  well  owner  and  the  decision  was  made  to 
proceed with the well program. 
The next step included the performance of a “negative” pressure test, which tests the integrity of the casing 
seal  assembly  and  is  conducted  by  the  drilling  contractor  at  the  direction  of  the  well  owner  and  in 
accordance  with  MMS  requirements.      We  understand  that  Halliburton  was  instructed  to  record  drill  pipe 
pressure  during  this  test  until  Halliburton’s  cementing  personnel  were  advised  by  the  drilling  contractor 
that the negative pressure test had been completed, and were placed on standby.   
We  understand  that  the  drilling  contractor  then  proceeded  to  displace  the  riser  with  seawater  prior  to  the 
planned  placement  of  the  final  cement  plug,  which  would  have  been  installed  inside  the  production  string 
and  enabled  the  planned  temporary  abandonment  of  the  well.  Prior  to  the  point  in  the  well  construction 
plan  that  the  Halliburton  personnel  would  have  set  the  final  cement  plug,  the  catastrophic  incident 
occurred.  As a result, the final cement plug was never set...."
-------------------------------------------
This appears to be 'human error'
with this especially

"...We  understand  that  the  drilling  contractor  then  proceeded  to  displace  the  riser  with  seawater  prior  to  the 
planned  placement  of  the  final  cement  plug,  which  would  have  been  installed  inside  the  production  string 
and  enabled  the  planned  temporary  abandonment  of  the  well...."
-------------------------------------------
Without the final cement plug in place the only thing holding hydrostatic down hole pressure is the mud, which they displaced with seawater.

Uh-oh
Kaboom

Not to mention the fact the cement slurry only had 20 hours to cure.

foghorn

CV said...

@72bat

It takes ONE to start a village...

mcHAPPY said...

Nobody loses on Wall St. - HOooRAaaaY!

Nic said...

Every rally in crude is being sold hard. Interesting price action.

BinT said...

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero performed a U-turn and cut public wages, caving in to pressure from the rest of Europe to reduce spending to avoid being dragged deeper into the Greek crisis.

Spain will cut public wages 5 percent this year and freeze them in 2011 while suspending a pension raise, Zapatero told parliament in Madrid today. A 2,500-euro ($3,168) subsidy for new parents will be scrapped and foreign aid trimmed, while public investment will fall 6 billion euros in 2011.

The government, whose members will take a 15 percent pay cut, aims to push the deficit to 6 percent of gross domestic product next year from 11.2 percent in 2009, in what would be the largest two-year reduction since at least 1980. Finance Minister Elena Salgado said as recently as February that Spain would honor wage agreements with public-sector unions.

“Desperate times call for desperate measures,” said Jose Garcia-Zarate, a fixed income strategist at 4Cast Ltd. in London. “Cuts in public wages are the clearest message that the government is serious. This is basically what the market has been calling for.”

Anonymous said...

From the nola link above.
Interesting wording, no?
-------------------------------------
8:50 a.m.: Persons of interest named

Coast Guard Capt. Hung Nguyen designated the following as people of interest in the probe:

Paul McIntyre from BP

Ned Kohnke from rig owner Transocean

Kelley Green from cement contractor Halliburton

Brad Eastman from Cameron International, the maker of the blowout preventer stack that failed

Lee Kaplan from Dril-Quip

Tim Browing from mud provider M-I SWACO

Michael Lemoine from Weatherford Inc.

Ingram Lee from Anadarko Petroleum

Mark Pulman from MOEX USA

CV said...

@Amen

Can you reprint those BIDU extensions with the "reverse split" price?

call me ahab said...

foghorn-

as I imagined- negligence and human error- but- we sill need oil- drilled from somewhere-

and also-

I just can't get off this Elena Kagan- a disturbing thought in itself-

I mean what is up w/ that pick- there has to be a thousands of actual judges w/ experience to choose from-

my guess is she has told BO exactly what he wanted to hear about how she would come down on certain decisions

BinT said...

I guess the question of the day is: Can socialists have pan-European riots or is that illegal under the EU constitution?

Finally made it to the salt mine...

CV said...

@foghorn

"Without the final cement plug in place the only thing holding hydrostatic down hole pressure is the mud, which they displaced with seawater."

---

Sounds ALSO like a metaphor for the FLASH CRASH

McFearless said...

Nic,

there was no leadership going into the 1170, there doesn't seem to be much underlying strength and we've already used a ton of energy just to get back up here.

I have in the back of my mind that we can go higher so I'm not getting too crazy on the bearish side but I really think the market looks weak here. The way people are blowing off last week is eye opening.

McFearless said...

wow, here is one ugly chart:

MON

karen said...

Now (?) crude is selling off ? this is bizarre.. sorry... having trouble focusing on the run up.. oh, except in the miners.. gdx down, my little miner down.. gold up..

72bat said...

Bnt
Interest in Greece Holidays Goes to Zero
zero google searches. not surprising

CV said...

@Nic

Further on McF (11:32)

That little "blurb" you had on your blog about the DOW, only 2 times (1929 & NOW), ever doing a 10% intraweek turnaround after a +50% 12 month run-up...

...is revealing

call me ahab said...

"Despite the running unease in world markets, four giants of American finance managed to make money from trading every single day during the first three months of the year."

4 banks- 100% profitable for every trading day-

that's not unusual-

right up there with conjoined twins

CV said...

@72bat

Now that you just published that, the QUERIES will SKYROCKET... (rubbernecking effect)

72bat said...

maybe a spike in interest from "tourists" who visit cities along about the time wto meetings are held

McFearless said...

there was something else that went up at the four banks and all they did to "make it happen" was exist.

it's this thing called nonperforming assets.

CV said...

@ahab (11:40)

I'm shocked!

Your winnings sir...

I-Man said...

Weird comment action.

CV said...

@I-Man

Day 12...

CV thinks Day 13 brings more to talk about...

AmenRa said...

CV

Just move the decimal point to the left. Dropped the low (after reconfiguring the chart) into Excel and the numbers are the same but lower by a factor of 10.

low= 10.05
0.1459= 11.52
0.382= 13.89
0.5= 15.08
0.618= 16.26
0.854= 18.63
1.00= 20.10
1.618= 26.31
2.618= 36.36
4.235= 52.61
6.857= 78.96
11.077= 121.37

mcHAPPY said...

I had linked up that 4 banks earlier. That is unreal and nobody bats an eye. All the theatre in DC is garbage. They are voting down all the things that would make a difference. I do not like to subscribe to conspiracy theories but a 1000 point collapse in the middle of voting for financial reform? This is ridiculous. If we have a break out before the close above 1175, I'll have some tough decisions. I'm down enough now that I may just wait for CV's day 13.

Anonymous said...

@ahab
Kagan, Smagan, Groucho, Harpo, at this point does it really matter?

@CV
Yep, when this baby blows it's going to make the Gulf look like a zit.

foghorn

call me ahab said...

alright-

gotta roll-

mchappy- you are not sounding too happy(-:!!!

even banks deserve a little love-

well maybe not-

later all

CV said...

@Amen

Thanks... So it was a 1:10 reverse split... I didn'y know that part...

CV said...

McHappy

This IS NOT trading advice... But here is CV just thinking out loud...

So what if we "nudge" a little higher...

I find it VERY HARD to imagine taking off to new highs (above "Nic's top) without CLOSING the 11 point gap down in the 1110-1121 area...

JMO...

This is just stalling...

AmenRa said...

CV

Hard to buy at $700. Easier to lure unsuspecting victims at $70.

Anonymous said...

Weird,
How's this for weird

Sunday, my wife, Luscious Louella Longhorn, forever after known as LLL, went out to start her truck and go get some dinner. Her truck is a '04 Dodge 1 ton diesel, excellent shape, well maintained, et al.
Well upon opening the door she found the whole drivers side seat BURNT UP.
The air bag was deployed and melted in a pool in the floor, the seat is just coils, the visor is melted and so is the steering wheel.
Ins. adjuster out yesterday and I'll be damned if the thing didn't start right up.
Radio works, the console lights not blown out still work, very bizarre.

Just another day at the ranch, eh?

foghorn

CV said...

@Amen

Sure nuf...

That 78.96 looks "hot & juicy"

CV said...

@foghorn

I suppose we've found a new definition of the term "funbags"...

Anonymous said...

a reverse split would be priced at 7000

Nic said...

I shall enjoy my top while it lasts.
Soon we will be back looking up and Karen's top me thinks ...

CV said...

@Nic (12:38)

Could be as early as Friday...

I-Man said...

Foghorn,

Heated/Cooled seats in that thing?

CV said...

TWSWB Making the case that this is a "typical" recovery...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/is-this-a-typical-economic-recovery/#more-55949

Typical recovery huh? (Is that why you went 100% cash last week?)...

Nic said...

Yeah CV
We have 10% intraday drops in normal recoveries. It was the fat fingered black swan on the grassy knoll that did it.

I-Man said...

Quit being so negative and unAmerican... sheesh.

CV said...

@Nic

The SEC has pulled themselves away from the "porn" and are on the case...

The "culprits" are being narrowed down to:

- Linda Lovelace
- Ron Jeremy
- "Debbie"
- Peter North

McFearless said...

foghorn,

man, never heard of that with the truck seat. Crazy. good thing the whole thing didn't go up in flames.

karen said...

I've finally gotten back into watching this on 5 and 10 min charts.. fascinating..

daily chart of jnk shows it's not buying this price action..

Anonymous said...

Iman
No, just cloth interior

McF
It is proof that the cab was air tight, any air leak and poof.
My truck was about 3 feet away.
Could have got very ugly, very quickly.

The spray pattern on the back of the seat seems to indicate that the airbag deployed afire.
Is that even possible?

foghorn

McFearless said...

well, I put some orders in for the Q's on some June puts, we'll see if they get filled.

CV said...

Drifting satellite threatens cable programming

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37086846/ns/technology_and_science-space/

Excerpt:
LONDON - Two of the world's largest satellite companies say they're scrambling to keep an out-of-control communications satellite from drifting into another satellite's orbit and interfering with cable programming across the United States...

AMC 11 receives digital programming from cable television channels and transmits it to all U.S. cable networks from its orbit 22,000 miles (36,000 kilometers) above the equator...

However, AMC 11 is part of a satellite constellation that transmits HD television signals for more than 100 channels, ranging from Showtime and MTV Networks to HSN and the Food Network. Among the channels carried by Galaxy 15 and its sibling satellites are Cinemax, Encore, ESPN, Fox News Channel, HBO, Starz and SyFy.

---

Hmmm... So THAT's how the Administration has decided to get rid of FOX... clever!

McFearless said...

@foghorn,

I'm not sure what to think, I don't know much about cars, that just sounds really odd. I'd love to hear what Dodge ends up telling you. That's pretty scary stuff.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

The White House today posted on its website a video allowing Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan to speak "in her own words" about her personal history and perspective.


In the interview, conducted by a White House staffer who produces videos for the administration, Kagan discusses her childhood, parents and professional career. At one point she jokes that people get confused between her job as solicitor general arguing cases before the Supreme Court and the attorney general, who puts "the labels on the cigarette packages."


While the White House seems to believe the American people deserve to hear from Kagan, it has not made her available to reporters. That prompted some consternation at today's White House briefing.



"It appears that Solicitor General Kagan did an interview yesterday right after the president's announcement," said a reporter. "You've now posted that on the White House Web site. Who did the interview? And can I have one?"

"I think it's -- I think it's on the website if you want to see it," responded Press Secretary Robert Gibbs.

Soon after, the reporter can be heard saying, an edge in her voice, "So a White House staffer interviewing her."

Gibbs says yes, and the reporter asks if Kagan would like to do another interview.

"She has -- she's not told me that, no," replied Gibbs, prompting the reporter to respond, "Tell her we're deeply frustrated."

...nah, nah, ne, boo-boo. if you are not elite, you are full of doo-doo.....

...little thing I learned from my children.....

CV said...

@fohorn

I may be talking out of my @ss here (not the first time)... But when airbags deploy, isn't there some kind of "spark" or ignition?

If so, something FLAMMABLE might have ignited...

Hairspray remnant? Whiskey? :-)

I-Man said...

They can mess with our jobs, our healthcare, and our taxes...

But if they mess with our TV... ho boy...

REVOLUTION.

CV said...

@karen

My chart looks like this...

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/---------

DL said...

I-Man @ 10:43

Qu'est-ce que c'est… ?

CV said...

@karen

oops... now it looks like this...
/
/
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/--------

Nic said...

I-Man
You have to understand that us stoooopid foreigners think that Freedom is American.
We are learning ;)

DL said...

I don't really think of Canadians as "foreign".

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

Your thoughts are similar to mine. Do not worry, I do not take anyone opinions here as trading advice. I was and continue to be surprised by this levitation. I thought we could touch 1170 but I did not think it would remain here this long. The gap below is something that is very apparent but I guess we are stuck in Wile E. Coyote mode again. It is very more discouraging than anything. We'll have to see what happens Thursday and Friday - even by the end of today. I can live with anything under 1175. If we break there *GULP*

CV said...

@DL (1:20)

Unless they're from Quebec...

BinT said...

Maybe it was SAC...spontaneous airbag combustion...(this is why they follow our vice-president with a fire extinguisher 24/7.....)

DL said...

McH @ 1:21

Yeah, if we don't see any downside action on Thurs/Fri, I would have to reconsider my outlook.

CV said...

@McHappy

Go long "cold steel" before you make ANY trade...

That way you always have a hedge :-)

CV said...

@Bruce

I'm sure you've repaired a few AIRBAG combustions in your time...

DL said...

CV @ 1:22

C'est la meme chose, non?

CV said...

@DL

All the french I know is "Let them eat cake"

BinT said...

in my various staffings and learnings, I indeed am familiar with the airbag contingent....but this combustion thingy....if we could only find out how it is done!

I-Man said...

DL,

I aint cultured enough to know french, but I'm ok at jamaican patois.

But I'm sure you caught my drift.

I'm hoping you kill it with that short, imparting my best wishes.

I-Man said...

The smack of 1170...

DL said...

I will say that the R2000 index isn't providing a lot of encouragement to the bears.

CV said...

I'll try deploying a new avatar (to hopefully help things along)...

BinT said...

30 minutes until the mine opens...

I suppose I could just sit here and try to make obnoxious sounds with my cupped hand under my armpit, but that gets old after awhile....

I have learned that the universe is shaped like a sponge...and that galaxies are bound together with filaments of gravity...and that dark matter and dark energy must be present but actually identifying them...that is another matter.

or I could just go get another cup of coffee...

DL said...

Weakness in crude oil again.

Maybe it's taking cues from the Euro.

CV said...

@Bruce

...sounds like you've had enough coffee... Better make it a decaf :-)

McFearless said...

"I will say that the R2000 index isn't providing a lot of encouragement to the bears."

As always time frame is key, the R2k didn't offer much encouragement to bears in 2008 either, but in the end it's a secondary index.

CV said...

@DL

Think of it this way...

In Europe, gas prices are ALREADY around 6-8 (in dollars) per gallon...

Now their currency is going to s*** (which raises their price paid), AND, as in Spain, their government is going to ask them to take a 10% haircut...

I see SCHWINN stock is up...

CV said...

Panic Buying Of Physical Gold In Europe Threatens Depletion Of Austrian Mint

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/panic-buying-physical-gold-europe-threatens-depletion-austrian-mint

They're buying all that gold so they can melt it down to make bike frames out of...

BinT said...

yes cv....but a good day...changed my facelift procedure, and the last gal looks like a million. Almost unchanged in regards to position of the corners of the mouth, lack of tightness of the skin envelope, early scars appearance, improvement of platysma bands, jowl, marionette lines, nasolabial folds. she looks like her photo of 20 years ago, and is just giddy....it always pays to review what you do, whether it is technical analysis of the market and whether it made you money, or simply being a tissue technician...

DL said...

CV @ 1:42

It's Obama's dream to make us just like Western Europe.

CV said...

Germany reintroducing the Mark? (to announce this Friday)?...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DP2K69Q8ZeE

CV said...

@Bruce

Many "bearchops" around here have been TISSUE TECHNICIANS since, oh about, "karens top"...

mcHAPPY said...

"By expanding its probe outside of Goldman Sachs, the government may be undermining its case against Goldman. Fraud is fraud, but when a practice is prevalent across an industry, it becomes accepted. Suddenly the burden shifts from the alleged fraud to regulators who should have stepped in if the practice was unacceptable."

EVERYBODY ELSE IS DOING IT!

Anonymous said...

After taking some pics and looking at them on the computer, it seems like one of the seat motors caught on fire and this in turn caused the airbag to later deploy.
LLL is kinda small so the seat was actually under the steering wheel and the heat was right on the airbag.

Should we call Dodge or just let the insurance handle it?

foghorn

Steffi Graff said...

CV,

No German in my vocabulary - except "nein". What is the readers digest version of the video.

I-Man said...

1164.5 is looking like a nice target for this afternoon.

CV said...

@foghorn

I say "get the hell out of Dodge"

CV said...

@Steffi

It's just a rumor...

But it's starting to move up the totem (gaining traction)...

Colin said...

@McF inre: R2000
Ive been short this puppy neutral with the SP for about a week and its nothing pretty, but this everyday outperformance fundamentally cant continue, can it? Then again, with blue chips like UAL, Etrade, and the regional banks in the top holdings, maybe this baby has legs.

Nic said...

Gold again ... insanity

McFearless said...

working on a line of peeps in the office here:

http://underthebridge.files.wordpress.com/2007/04/peeps2.jpg

I-Man said...

Or 1171... but I kinda doubt that.

McFearless said...

Colin,

i can't get a great wave count on it, never traded it, I just remember in 08 it was not a good indicator for the S&P/DOW.

Chart could be in a series of 1's and 2's right now, or maybe an ED, but I'm not so sure about the latter.

McFearless said...

alright, here we go, third try in two days to fight through 1170.

Anonymous said...

Got through.

McFearless said...

no, it needs to break it decisively, 1.41 pts isn't that, trying to determine the wave....

until this happens there are almost equal risks long or short in the very near term imo.

Anonymous said...

How much does it cost to extinct bears?

A trillion dollars.

Suckers.

McFearless said...

and to be clear, 1170 isn't the end all be all, lots of folks here I think have the right range, which could be all the way up to 1190, so I think bulls wants some stronger action here.

McFearless said...

Right Anon?

those bears have been suckers for 10 years!

karen said...

20 ema of $spx is 1173.29
50 ema is 1166.86

sorry but nothing bullish has been accomplished here today : )

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY is a sucker no doubt.

karen said...

oh, forgot to add, RSI still under 50.. so we've worked off an oversold condition.. now what? is the question.

I-Man said...

The suckers are the chickenshit pussies that wont get a handle so we can track their bullshit remarks.

DL said...

Just ignore the anonymous trolls.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps I'm paranoid but I can't get rid of the feeling that someone has been "trolling for bears" the last two days. Bumping the SPX up to 1170 or so -- but not really violating it -- attracting short interest. Then, some morning soon, the squeeze will come and we'll be 20 points higher.

STL

McFearless said...

Perhaps STL, but put/call has stayed below 1 all day and there were no serious spikes as we touched the 1170. It's gonna be tough to produce a meaninful squeeze if it stays like this. They'd be smarter at this point to push it to 1190, let bears come in, and then fill that gap in a big way just above.

mcHAPPY said...

Anyone keeping track on the DXY?

Is a 10 year trend now over?

This is ridiculous.

McFearless said...

I'm not sure if Andy gets a chance to read all these posts, I doubt it, but I want to give a shout out to him as he's taught me something that has really improved my counting the last several months which is that the lesser degree wave 2's should not be retracing more than the larger degree 2's.

EWI counts like this all the time and I think it often hurts their short term counts

Anonymous said...

Says one algo to another: How can I tempt that bear...so I can take his wallet?

STL

I-Man said...

I will try to restrain I-self next time...
Apologizing to the group.

CV said...

Anonymous Troll said...

@DL

"You talking to me? You talking to me?"

I-Man said...

And Karen, I just washed my mouth out with soap... Bronners, of course.

McFearless said...

speaking of the dollar, I watched a hendry video the other day from a link Nic gave and then I came across this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJNiMFFRu0g

In it I think he gives a very simple and good explanation of his bullish view on the dollar. Worth a watch for hendry fans. Video is now just over a year old.

I would love to have a set up like him in another 5-10 years.

BinT said...

Ben,

If you were reading the tea leaves of Europe, wouldn't you think that there should be increasing confrontations between the central governments of the PIGS and their citizens? To me, that seems to be very likely, and very unsettling...

Anonymous said...

To get back on topic, lest I be banned...

If we opened a market, say, the Stock EXchange, SEX for short
and offered to cover all bets, foreign and domestic, large or small, overt or covert, do you think we would do OK?

How about if we tilted the tables a bit, SEX gets total control of the deck of cards(assets), the 'players don't get to know how many cards are in the deck, the value of said cards, whether the cards are 'marked', how many 'players' are playing any one hand, or how many 'players' are side-betting against any hand.

We will allow the 'player' to 'cut' the deck and choose his 'game', of course, lest he grow wary.

Oh, and if they catch on to the gig, we'll call the 'cops' and get the game 'busted'

Step right up
you can't win if you don't play.

foghorn

McFearless said...

Bruce,

that call is almost too easy, so I'd go with something even bigger. If there is a P3 it is highly probable that the world will be at war or there will be a great extension of already existing wars a few years after the bear market ends.

mcHAPPY said...

I cannot believe after a 1000 point drop it is business as usual. Buy and holder crowd, headed by Johnny, must be feeling pretty safe and secure right now.

I-Man said...

Let them snooze, McHap... they're going to need the rest.

mcHAPPY said...

KD has some pretty big numbers on explaining 4 banks with a perfect trading record in Q1.

mcHAPPY said...

@I

Not just a 1000 point drop but 1000 point recovery in not even 5 trading days.

mcHAPPY said...

Actually, the Ticker link above has a lot of other interesting big numbers too.

McFearless said...

apols if someone already linked this, it's a few months old but still worth a watch, look at HH's face when "hyperinflation" comes up....lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ2otZqmNKE

McFearless said...

the video is important in the context of reminding yourself that not every single trade you make has to be for tomorrow. All I see anymore on the web are comments about being right every single day. People think if you are on the wrong trend for a few weeks or a few months then you are some kind of huge failaure. That's ignorant to the extreme....

Lord John said...

mcHAPPY,
I'm right there with you. I'm just dumbfounded at this market. I'm down 20 percent, shorting here and there, at what I thought should be turning points in the market since this rally started, and now need about a 30 percent gain just to get back to even. That seems like a huge mountain to climb at this point.

bob said...

Where is LB? I need a bond fix.

I-Man said...

Hang in there, gents...

If I may, though, suggest:

Take good notes of these trades that got you in this predicament, rehash them out again and again in your mind with price charts in hand...

Are there areas where profits could have been taken, risk taken off?

Learn to identify short term price targets for every trade you make, and stick to them, no matter what.

I have learned the hard way that although I maintain long and intermediate term price targets, that my risk profile personally, cant really handle watching profits erode once I have them.

Thus, I have retinkered my trading strategy to capture short term moves, and thereby eliminate the amount of time I spend in any one position.

PTJ says:

"I'd rather be out wishing I was in, than in, wishing I was out."

But of course, the spirit of all of this is self-reflection, and what works for the I, may not work for I and I.

I've been there... hang tough.

AmenRa said...

The fight for 1170 is well seen on 1-min SPX charts. They keep going punch for punch.

AmenRa said...

Tomorrow is the 1 week anniversary (or 5 fibo days) of the "crash". The market will be walking on a tightrope until the close.

bob said...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/10/225051/etfs-and-the-flash-crash/

Just saw this, behind on my reading. Great description of how the ETF/ETN universe works.

CV said...

@AmenRa

On the 1 minute charts, practically the WHOLE DAY looks like a long ED...

Possibly it will end tomorrow during "Johnny Hour"...

FLASH CRASH 2?

CV said...

@Amen

As I've been saying...

Yes - Tomorrow will be 5 fibo days from FLASH CRASH...

It will also be 13 days from 1219.8

karen said...

off to the beach !! check back this evening..

Lord John said...

I-Man,
That's good advice, I've been a little undisciplined with my trading and I think I should study those bad trades before I move ahead at this point doing more of the same.

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks, LJ. Nice to know I am not alone. In the last 2 weeks I have gone on an emotional roller coaster to go from down 9% to up 30% to down 15% is pretty sh*tty.

I started to go on and on about everything that is going on in the world.... but really this is a broken record.

My only hope is my contrarian indictor comes true as I am fully expecting to take significant losses in the next few days.

McFearless said...

Man, I just don't even know what to say. You read posts like this and question your sanity as well as the authors.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/is-this-a-typical-economic-recovery/

mcHAPPY said...

Good advice, I. I've learned so many lessons being down - and about to act on them - that it was time to learn some lessons being up.

Sh*tty thing is I'm down in the end on both!

Anonymous said...

@McFearless, if GS can be right every single day, why can't we all??

:-)
Whammer

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

After reading this latest gem from Barry, he is deleted from my favourites. The guy is officially a joke after the last couple of weeks.

McFearless said...

imo the best way to keep your losses within your comfort zone is to make sure you always manage position size. I meet lots of people that want to get into stocks, they start with $10k, open an account, and place three trades for $3,300 each.

Reality is they should have one or two trades for 100-300 each.

@McHappy,

In club EWI there is a Technical Analysis Handbook that I got years ago that was very helpful for me. I can't remember the exact name I just know the cover is Green. Among other things, it teaches you how to place stops in the wave count so that if you are on the wrong count you can stop yourself out without losing much or doing worse than break-even.

McFearless said...

McHappy,

Im very hesitant to call him a joke. I still respect BR for his market and economic opinions a great deal. I'll never forget how kind he was to me last year as well as his VP. Those guys treated me like I was someone worth talking to when in reality I'm just Joe Blow.

That said, I'm not sure I'm following that post and what he is saying...this is not typical from my perch.

McFearless said...

"if GS can be right every single day, why can't we all??"

LOL. Whammer from TBP?

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben

You are right he is not a joke. I guess my issue is lately I can get just as much from his postings as from Kudlow on CNBC.com.

I'm bitter - and rightfully so. Too arrogant last week.

Will look in to Club EWI. I think I may have that saved.

Lord John said...

or Whammer from the "Word Girl" cartoon?

mcHAPPY said...

Label this chart under depressing.

McFearless said...

@McHappy,

well, this week is almost over and you've got the whole year ahead to make good trades.

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben

Not without money! lol

72bat said...

i felt cjdriver might have an insight..
crjdriver Says:
Why do I get the feeling someone just wanted to play devils advocate today to get a sense of our sentemint?

CV said...

Or "The Whammer" (from "The Natural")... Played by Joe Don Baker...

mcHAPPY said...

CV was correct in the Deutsch Mark rumours. Denninger is discussing it here.

mcHAPPY said...

Truer words have never been spoken:

If Nations are to be Nations, and not subservient to banks, they better do it now. This would be the correct time, place and manner to make clear to banks that they exist at the pleasure of nations, not the other way around.

Unfortunately, the banks are ruling and ruining the world all at the same time and there is obviously nothing that will be done.

"Jump you f'ers" always brings a smile to Lloyd's face.

McFearless said...

mcHappy,

lol, well yes, that would be a minor problem. But hey, you live in Canada, buy a home (before you get priced out) and then you can take out the equity!

72bat said...

btw br/fusion does have my pittance in cash 100%since 5/5, but then it's an ira so they can't trade it short

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