Morning Audibles 4.28.10 - While You Were Sleeping

Here's what was happening while you were sleeping (Nic & McF, we know you don't sleep, but let's just "say" you were sleeping)...



Spanish Q1 2010 Unemployment Number Accidentally Leaked, Surpasses 20% For First Time Since 1997





A freak leak of the Spanish unemployment number by the National Statistical Institute (INE), the equivalent to the DOL, was captured by Spanish daily ABC.es, according to which for the first time since 1997, the unemployment rate in the country that was notched by S&P today, will surpass 20%. This number was supposed to be under embargo until Friday. According to the temporary leak which was subsequently promptly removed, the number of unemployed in Spain increased from 4.3 million to 4.6 million between the end of 2009 and March 31, 2010. 


What’s worse is that the unemployment among Spain’s youth is reaching epidemic proportions: “the unemployment rate for those under 25 years in the first quarter of 2010 was 40.93% and 18.02% in those over 25 years. In the group of 16-19 years, the rate is 59.79% and 13.1% among the unemployed aged 55 and older.” Dealing drugs is probably a more lucrative job than working for the government anyway. No taxes either.


So how are S&P FUTURES taking this news (aware that Greece is about to default, and Spain, which is much LARGER, is one of a few in line to be the next domino)?...


Hey! They're UP!... Whadda ya know?


I carefully avoided using the one with Erin Burnett riding it.

All I can say is, well, we ARE in the zodiac sign of TAURUS... Problem is, there appear to be two different types of BULLS battling it out (one wants to "gore", and the other wants to "soar")... Maybe they're getting themselves confused with the TWINS?


Oh I know... I can do better than that! (right LB)?



283 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 283 of 283   Newer›   Newest»
McFearless said...

yes, perhaps GDP and an overnight Greek bailout produce a top?

McFearless said...

we seem to not be having any comment problems today?

I-Man said...

200 comments...

DL said...

McF @ 2:44

We had this discussion a week or so ago, I think (with Nic also). I chose Interactive Brokers, but if you can download (and run) software on your computer, I wouldn't necessarily say that IB is your best bet.

Given my own personal situation, however, IB is O.K.

I-Man said...

It will be a major tell for me if we have a clean breakdown here.

McFearless said...

No point in saying it there, but just because there were others here involved, this is from AT's site:

McFearless said...
Karen,

I'm still wondering if the dollar will sport a 74.50 before it's done. I'd be a buyer at that level on a larger scale and a more serious stop.

October 9, 2009 2:06 PM

http://andystechnicals.blogspot.com/2009/10/crude-thoughts.html

McFearless said...

DL,

You are right, you already told me that. sorry. I remember now.

karen said...

RobotTrader at ZH:

Once again, the algospasms have turned many funds into dust as those attempting to short brokerage stocks, REITs, etc. in front of the European implosion are getting killed. Clearly, investors are voting that U.S. commercial real estate is the last bastion of safety, and the primary growth industry in 2011 will be stock trading.

While China's economy is on the verge of a meltdown, Europe is already close to falling into the vortex of massive bear raids, everyone is clamoring to own U.S. real estate:

Nic said...

I should say top more often. Is this the biggest up day this year for SPX?

Mannwich said...

Here's an economic indicator of sorts - have had Sox season tickets for years and could basically name my price on these tix for years. Now I'm having trouble dumping some of the games for LESS than face value. That has to be saying something about the real economy and about the sports bubble that is on the precipce of popping?

spoonman said...

Manny - sounds like a better indicator of the quality of pitching lately. Ugh. They'll turn it around, I'm sure.

DL said...

"algospasm".

Just shorten it to "algasm"

karen said...

foolishly, i will point out the rounded top on today's 10 min indu chart..

karen said...

and there is 666 again on the spx..

DL said...

Leftback is really missing out on a lot of "target rich" comments.

Mannwich said...

Perhaps spoonman, but demand has been trending down the last few years. Perhaps the fans miss some of the stars who are no longer there, but I used to get a lot of tourists who wanted these tickets and Fenway itself is always a draw. Something has changed. I think we know what that "something" is......the real economy sucks.

Mannwich said...

@spoonman: They've also won 6 of 8 and the last two were well pitched games. I think they're turning it around. They're beating up on the sisters of the poor, of course, but gotta win those too. They're on the schedule.

Mannwich said...

@spoonie: One more thing - my tix are NOT of the higher end variety. CF bleachers 8 rows up $26 per ticket. Great value though. Perhaps, again, it's the lower and middle classes getting smoked and the wealthy and upper ticket levels doing fine? Bifurcated banana republic economy anyone?

karen said...

okay, this is starting to look good.. the 5ema just undercut the 20ema on the indu.. it's a nice looking rounded hill..

spoonman said...

Manny - true, Buchholz looked good the other night. I've missed some of the games from this latest little run they've put together. Can't overreact, after all, it's only April. As for the tickets, I'm not surprised to see the demand tail off. If ever there was a euphoric high, it was Red Sox nation circa 2007.

Nic said...

Someone help me out here. We are rallying because -
Only 448,000 new jobless claims compared to forecast 442,000 this week?
German parliament agreed to help Greece and I missed the announcement?
Spain with 10X the debt problems of Greece doesn't really have 20% unemployment?
Moody's didn't really say they were reviewing Greece to downgrade it again
Someone had wildly fabulous earnings and I missed that too?
This can't all be because of a short squeeze in Palm can it?
Maybe I am the crazy one

spoonman said...

I don't go to games very often - only when Dad wants to sponsor my seat. By the time I get out of there buying a few beers, parking, etc I'm wondering how I'll buy groceries next week. I would love to see prices come down.

Mannwich said...

@spoonie: Lester 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 11 K's. Bard and Pap lights out too. But it's the Jays so I won't get too excited.

Sorry, back to market talk. I just thought the whole sports industry was relevant to discussions about deflation and the economy.

DL said...

"Spain ...doesn't really have 20% unemployment?"

A 20% unemployment rate is actually bullish. The ECB will remain on hold for a long time.

karen said...

No, Nic, it was the short squeeze in PALM and FSLR, combined.

The US doesn't care about Europe.. no impact!
Jobless claims don't matter, because no one needs to work in the US.

Nic said...

I am sorry Manny
That was very interesting ...

CV said...

@bob

lots of news tonight

Yeah, like...

- Greece announces bailout
- Nope no bailout
- Greece in talks for bailout
- Nope no bailout
- Greece pleads for bailout
- Nope no bailout
- Greek offers austerity for bailout
- Nope (say Greek pensioners... we'll riot)
- OK then, no austerity, can we still have a bailout?
- Nope
- Obama calls Merkle (asking Germans to bail Greece out)
- Nein!
- Ben, can we borrow your helicopter?
- Sure!
- Pass the baklava!

mcHAPPY said...

@Nic

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vM2KI0Fs-fI

karen said...

well, if indu gets back over 11180, the rollover is over.. but so far so good.

spoonman said...

Nic,
Stocks are going up because people buy stocks to make money. You can't make money if stocks go down(everybody knows this), and so people wouldn't buy them if they went down. But people do buy them, and so it must be because they go up. Makes perfect sense to me.../snark

I-Man said...

If 1205 breaks, then we could get a whoosh down to 1197 in a hot minute.

karen said...

I thot Nic was gonna stare it down?

Nic said...

Thanks Spoonie ... http://ow.ly/1ERtC

McFearless said...

I can't stop laughing about the BIDU chart.

Nic said...

Re Moody's downgrade:
Update: It will complete its review after of the IMF/EU program are revealed. A MULTI NOTCH DOWNGRADE IS LIKELY, Moody’s says, according to Reuters.
If Fitch and Moody’s cut their ratings, the ECB will have shift its collateral rules again as Greek debt would no longer be investment grade.

Nic said...

Karen I tried staring it down. Now I am trying the facepalm thing.

I-Man said...

I and I must CHANT it down...

karen said...

HousingWire

Greater Baltimore foreclosure filings jump 141% in Q1: Greater Baltimore’s foreclosure… http://goo.gl/fb/XcPJ9 #hw
5 minutes ago via Google

karen said...

ben, i fail to find any humour in the bidu chart...

Nic said...

From Jamie Coleman at Forexlive:
"The web is awash in ‘eerie parallels’ between this and that, but there is one factor that has been staring me in the face for months that had not made a dent on my gray matter: The uncanny similarity in the gold standard, which exacerbated the Great Depression, and the euro, which is hammering uncompetitive eurozone economies like Greece and Portugal…"

Mannwich said...

And then there's....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/29/tiger-woods-had-sex-with_n_556948.html

karen said...

SRS is down over 8% !!! a new low! 24.28

that and gs over 160 are about the last straws..

I-Man said...

Need a shoehorn?

Mannwich said...

@karen: Another reverse split coming on SRS? LOL.

karen said...

fascinating comparison, nic! thanks for sharing that..

BinT said...

CV:

I had to do some looking, but I do have the typewritten text of the phone conversation between Ms. Merkel and Mr. Obama about loaning money to Greece, if you would like to read it.

No no no no no no no no no
No no no no no no no no
No no no no no no no no
No no no no no

Nobody can do
The shing-a-ling
Like I do

No no no no no no no no no
No no no no no no no no
No no no no no no no no
No no no no no

Nobody can do
the skate
Like I do

No no no no no no no no no
No no no no no no no no
No no no no no no no no
No no no no no

Nobody can do
The boogaloo
Like I do

No no no no no no no no no
No no no no no no no no
No no no no no no no no
No no no no no

Nobody can do
the philly
Like I do

Well don't you know I'm gonna skate
I'm doin', ain't nobody doin'
But me baby
Nobody but me

Yes i gonna philly, I'm doin'
Ain't nobody doin'
But me baby
Nobody but me

Well let me tell you nobody
Nobody but me
Well let me tell you
Nobody, nobody, nobody, etc.

......NO MONEY.NOBODY.

karen said...

HousingWire
Salt Lake hardest hit in mortgage crisis: When it comes to foreclosures, Salt Lake City… http://goo.gl/fb/wZQsC #hw
2 minutes ago via Google

HousingWire

New York ranks no. 2 for mortgage fraud in country: Mortgage fraud is still on the rise… http://goo.gl/fb/mVLld #hw
2 minutes ago via Google

Mannwich said...

Rubber really hitting the road for those on extended unemployment, many of which are set to expire.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/unemployment-many-workers-exhausting.html

karen said...

my head is pounding we almost got 1205.. lol

Mannwich said...

Everything green on my screen today (except DTO). That's a rarity! Not up a lot but green nevertheless!

I-Man said...

Peace out I and I bredren and sistren...

Off to lunch.

Nic said...

Bruce in Tennessee - are you reading the BP?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/cosmetic-surgery-cutbacks/

karen said...

Euro stabilizes on rising Greek rescue hopes
3:55 PM ET 4/29/10 | NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell Thursday as the euro gained ground on hopes that Greek officials, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund will soon nail down an agreement on a multiyear rescue package for the debt-strapped country.

The dollar index $DXY, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, slipped to 82.018, compared with 82.319 late Wednesday.

The euro (CUR_EURUSD) rose to $1.3238, up from $1.3203 in late North American trading Wednesday. The single currency had notched a new one-year low in Wednesday's session near $1.3112.

The dollar bought 94.03 Japanese yen (CUR_USDYEN), down from 94.25 yen on Wednesday. Japanese markets were closed Thursday.

DL said...

B @ 3:57

Aflac actually owns some Greek debt

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2010/04/aflac_hold_gree.html

mcHAPPY said...

It looks like FAZ will live to fight another day.

The commenter I like on TBP is HEHEHE. If I were to wager over an identity, I would bet Karl Denninger.

karen said...

CV, note the closing spike in the final minutes of JNK.. no big deal but raised my eyebrows just the same.

CV said...

JNK

40.10 was the closing level I was talking about (January)...

Look at the last 7 minutes of 1 minute candles...

40.10... Whoosh to 40.14

close (40.09)... lol! (on last tick)

CV said...

@Bruce

"The HUMAN BEINZ"!

Mannwich said...

This post at NC caught my eye. I wonder if people still think that folks aren’t spending some of extra money from not making mortgage payments on other items in the economy? I’m not willing to debunk that theory just yet.

Rode my bike around the wealthiest neighborhood in Minneapolis yesterday – the Kenwood area around Lake of the Isles. Multi-million dollar homes all around the lake and I’ve never seen so many of them on the market all at once, and NO “Sold” signs on any of them. Bottom line is the only part of the housing market that’s moving is the lower end. Upper end still not moving here at all. Nada. Zip, zilch. I wonder how many have strategically defaulted and are still living in them, meaning the banks have yet to write down those big losses? I’m sure a fair amount of them. Higher end not moving. When those prices go down, prices at the middle and lower ends will resume their downward path. Not “if”. When. In the meantime, enjoy “la-la land”.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/morgan-stanley-strategic-defaults-reach-12.html

CV said...

CV is off to run some errands...

I'll check back after AMEN does his thing...

BinT said...

@Nic:

Yep. This is very old news to plastic surgeons. Some double boardeds have gone back to general surgery...back in a minute

karen said...

"Banks should be banks..."

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-29/wall-street-faces-capital-shortfalls-pay-cuts-in-banking-bill.html

Nic said...

The NC article raises something interesting about strategic defaults, pre-defaults and spending.
If you lose your job and you have limited savings / access to credit are you really going to spend whats left on an underwater mortgage when banks are in no hurry to foreclose or are you going to spend it on other things? Its a no-brainer to me.
The cable package and the tanning salon etc are just what some people nowadays think are basics, as in old habits die hard.

BinT said...

Nuts, what a week. Nic, some folks who trained and were boarded in both general surgery and plastics last year gave up the more competitive plastic surgery business and went back to hernias and gall bladders.

Of more concern is that only 2% of butter bar doctors want to be general internists or primary care...

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2010-04-29-internist29_ST_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

mcHAPPY said...

CV

DOuble check that JNK quote. I see 40.11 now.

karen said...

HAPPY, you are right about the close..

mcHAPPY said...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2250-Now-We-See-Whos-Who-Too-Big-To-Fail.html

Maybe this is why it took 3 votes to get debate going on financial reform. I do not think this is what Republicans or Dodd wanted.

http://kaufman.senate.gov/press/press_releases/release/?id=A6612F3D-1736-4393-A93B-F299924002E6

mcHAPPY said...

I think it is safe to assume that there will be significant backlast from voters for any Senator who votes against this.

Most importantly it brings back all the sh**ty off balance sheet 'assets'.

mcHAPPY said...

re: financial bailouts

"The cost is staggering—as much as $33,000 for every single taxpayer since 2007. Federal agencies have disbursed $4.6 trillion dollars to support the financial sector since the meltdown in 2007-2008; that’s at least four times what has been spent in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001."

Wow, puts things in perspective.

McFearless said...

McHappy,

that little 20 pages is very uh, deflationary.

As for cost, I remember BR had a good thread about that to help put the cost in perspective:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/big-bailouts-bigger-bucks/

Anonymous said...

this sight should be called the Bad News Bears

Anonymous said...

Great post however I was wanting to know
if you could write a litte more on this topic? I'd be very grateful if you could elaborate a little bit more. Many thanks!
Review my web blog http://www.alyssamelodyacupuncture.com

Anonymous said...

An impressive share! I've just forwarded this onto a co-worker who had been doing a little homework on this. And he in fact bought me lunch simply because I discovered it for him... lol. So let me reword this.... Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending the time to discuss this matter here on your web site.
Visit my site ; Cowboy Advertising Balloon

Anonymous said...

Oh my goodness! Amazing article dude! Thank you so much, However I am experiencing difficulties
with your RSS. I don't know the reason why I can't subscribe to it.
Is there anybody getting similar RSS issues? Anyone that knows
the answer can you kindly respond? Thanks!
!
Review my web page ... http://www.cafepress.com/

Anonymous said...

Nice post. I used to be checking constantly this weblog and I am inspired!
Very useful information specifically the ultimate section :) I deal with such information much.
I used to be seeking this particular info for a long
time. Thank you and good luck.
Also visit my blog post :: laval office cleaning

Anonymous said...

It's very straightforward to find out any matter on net as compared to textbooks, as I found this paragraph at this site.
My page http://officefurnitureto.com/office-furniture/filing-storage/

Anonymous said...

Do you have any video of that? I'd want to find out more details.
my web site - Shipping Charges

Anonymous said...

Excellent goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous to and you're just too wonderful. I really like what you have acquired here, really like what you are saying and the way in which you say it. You make it enjoyable and you still care for to keep it sensible. I cant wait to read far more from you. This is really a great web site.
my site: Http://www.Popflops.com/

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure where you're getting your info, but great topic.
I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more.
Thanks for magnificent info I was looking for this information for my mission.
Also visit my web blog www.voicewinds.com

Anonymous said...

I absolutely love your site.. Very nice colors
& theme. Did you develop this site yourself? Please reply back as I'm attempting to create my very own website and want to know where you got this from or what the theme is called. Many thanks!
Feel free to surf my web blog ; 404 Not Found

Anonymous said...

Great delivery. Great arguments. Keep up the good work.
My webpage - www.candecarpetsandvents.com

Anonymous said...

Excellent web site you've got here.. It's difficult to find good quality writing like yours
these days. I honestly appreciate people like you! Take care!
!
Visit my web site : 3d glasses

Anonymous said...

Great article! That is the kind of info that are meant to be shared around the web.

Disgrace on the search engines for no longer positioning this post higher!
Come on over and consult with my web site . Thank you =)
My site : lacustomfinish.com

«Oldest ‹Older   201 – 283 of 283   Newer› Newest»

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.