AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bearish long day. Now below the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89. Midpoint way below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 21 SMA and failed. Also it's now below the weekly 3LB mid of 1191.94 (take some off the table). Closed below the .021 fibo (using high) of 1194.18. No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (again). Ignored all MA's. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). No daily 3LB changes.




VIX
Bullish long day (closed gap). Still above the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Tested the 14.6% fibo retrace and passed. Ignored 55 SMA and closed above the 21 & 89 SMA). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. Closed back below the 50.0% fibo retrace (tested the 61.8% fibo retrace and failed). New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1161.60.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's. Tested the 0.0% fibo retrace and passed. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece, Portugal, Spain, UK, etc). Closed back above trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



GS
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint is now way below the 10 SMA. Closed below previous low of 147.81 and below 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Daily 3LB reversal down with reversal now 160.24.



JNK
Possible dragonfly doji day (again). Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Did not test any MA's. Couldn't break through previous high of 40.21. Daily 3LB reversal up with reversal now 39.70.

35 comments:

CV said...

Thanks Amen...

Now I'm REALLY off...

- karen, last comment (on other thread, to you)
- SUPER SAVER (to win) - Kentucy Derby
- JNK (lotsa dragonfly's there)

Happy Anniversary (I think), karen...

Ciao!CV

CV said...

& on JNK

...those 3 dragonfly's came at the TOP of the BB's and off of 4 straight divergences on the 60 min. candles FWIW...

Anonymous said...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/04/30/217381/we-are-wall-street-we-are-smarter-and-more-vicious-than-dinosaurs/

Nic said...

FDIC closes 3 banks in Puerto Rico (there were only 11) which held 25% of all bank assets in PR.
Not good!
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/30/f-d-i-c-sells-3-troubled-puerto-rican-banks/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook

BinT said...

Back from a magnificent hike...we even wore down "The Machine"..(our yellow lab)

This morning...I am troubled that the government has allowed consolidation and lack of competition in some industries...I am thinking of Beer, Chocolate, Investment Banks, Aircraft, and others we could name. Cable television, satellite, heck there are lots of things that don't have enough competition to produce a great product at a competitive price.

CV...thanks for the blog.

BinT said...

Nic:

Those are very big banks....the FDIC is taking a real hit this weekend...

BinT said...

Karen,

If I remember right, as you did my birthday, this may not be a happy anniversay for you. But I wish you the very best.

karen said...

Tomorrow will be my anniversary, yes, 28 years.. and won't it be CV's birthday, as well?

mcHAPPY said...

Change the date to April 30, 2016 and this article would be good advice

call me ahab said...

long day-

market looks "scary" to me for anyone in a long position-

I would get a bit of amusement if Mr. "gotta buy C" Ritholtz got caught in a 20% smackdown in equities-

and here- this article is a great stuff from the NYT-

"Where All That Money Went"

you see- it's all make believe- so cash in at the right time

call me ahab said...

. . .and Karen happy anniversary- marriage is AWESOME . .. no really . . .ok . . .well maybe not (but maybe for you)

and CV- happy B-day- you running your boat up the Shenandoah or Potomac?

call me ahab said...

. . .and the funniest comment today from surfing a few blogs- although it was serious comment I believe-

"I wonder, where would we be today, if we had invested all the money that was spent over the last 30 years on drilling in wind and solar?"

my guess- not very far(-:!!!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=agUDget4gMm4

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Swiss officials are making decisions their peers in Greece or Portugal envy: Canceling bond sales as a budget surplus reduces the nation’s borrowing needs.

Soaring public debt in the 1990s prompted Swiss voters to approve a constitutional amendment requiring that revenue and expenses must balance over an entire economic cycle, though the government may run annual deficits. That restraint has paid off, pushing Switzerland’s borrowing costs to the lowest in Europe as investors rush to the safest investments.

Switzerland called off bond sales in November and December, saying it didn’t need additional funds to finance the budget. The benchmark 10-year note yields 1.80 percent, compared with Portugal’s 5.48 percent and Greece’s 9.06 percent.

“How can you keep Odysseus from falling for the sirens of parliament,” where politicians want to spend ever more to win elections, said Christoph Schaltegger, an economist at Zurich- based Economiesuisse, which lobbies on behalf of more than 30,000 Swiss companies. “There has to be a mechanism that forces politicians to show restraint.”

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704093204575216530213580458.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business

The U.S. government's massive share of the nation's mortgage market grew even larger during the first quarter.

Government-related entities backed 96.5% of all home loans during the first quarter, up from 90% in 2009, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. The increase was driven by a jump in the share of loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-owned housing-finance giants.

By providing a steady source of liquidity to the mortgage market, the government has helped housing markets to stabilize. However, "Fannie and Freddie have to get smaller and less relevant in order to revamp them, and instead, every day they're getting bigger and bigger and bigger," said Paul Bossidy, chief executive of Clayton Holdings LLC, a mortgage analytics firm.

mcHAPPY said...

I just realized why no one is talking financial reform in MSM and it is not really a big issue in the blogosphere:

I am so silly to think it will be different this time

as it is only political theatre indeed

My apologies for wasting your time! Lesson learned. Thank you, EWI.

Fool me once...

Nic said...

HAPPY BIRTHDAY CV!

And wishing you a happy day too Karen. Forward not back :)

Anonymous said...

Happy Healthy Birthday to C. from Canada.

Has anyone ever heard of a form called FR Y-9C, that IBs must file quarterly with the govt. At the moneytalks.net site, there is an article that says watch out for commodities on May 9th?

Just asking?

2small2bail said...

@C, No Derby post? I'd pick the Potomac too :-)

Happy Birthday!

I'll split evenly my Survivor Capital fantasy $20 on American Lion and Awesome Act

mcHAPPY said...

Yes, Happy Birthday CV.

This is a great (and short) article with lots of meat on the bone through the links:

Highly recommended - check Volker on steroids

AmenRa said...

Happy birthday CV!

7 more banks bite the dust: http://www.fdic.gov/

BinT said...

Amen:

Those Puerto Rican banks were about some serious FDIC money...gotta cut the grass while there is a let-up in the rain...the ladies are having a "function" here at the Ponderosa...

later....and Happy Birthday, SeeVee

Anonymous said...

HAPPY BIRTHDAY CV !!

Derby pick today...this hardly counts as serious handicapping...any long shot, rail running mudder could win today...so I'm going with the opposite...Sidney's Candy to win.

Mel

Ben22 said...

Have a great birthday C.

Wes said...

Have a great day CV!

Anonymous said...

Neely posts a question of the week sometimes. This week's topic/answer was sort of interesting.

It goes to the heart of "when" to trade and how much risk one should be taking. It's sort of enlightened to simply say: "Hey, there are phases of the market that are simply unpredictable, therefore it's best to just not trade, or trade very small."

In real life trading of commodities, etc...I've found this to be true. Sometimes markets are just too difficult to understand/predict, so it's best to just be focused on markets that ARE predictable.

http://www.neowave.com/qow.asp

Happy B-Day C.

-AT

AmenRa said...

BinT

It cost the FDIC 5.3b for the three Puerto Rican banks. At this rate the FDIC may have to tap that credit line at the Treasury.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

AT:

I am not a trader, just a hobbyist who's been fairly lucky. I think that is the best advice anyone who is not a professional can take. One of my partners told me this week (he often asks me about the economy and markets)that he told his broker to get him out of stocks two weeks ago...and he has slept like a baby since. (And this guy takes class 5 rapids in his kayak like he's up for a midnight snack, and You WON'T find BinT on any class 5's).....

mcHAPPY said...

@AT

I had to give up oil for that same reason. Even now I look at the market from a spectator point of view and I continue to be wrong (surprise!) but this time there is no money riding on it (thankfully!).

Looking forward to the charts tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Shout out to CV on the Super Saver call in the Derby.

mcHAPPY said...

LOL, congrats CV on winning the Kentucky Derby on your birthday!

SUPER SAVER WINS!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greece-poised-to-sign-rescue-rb-4115951833.html?x=0&.v=9

"More than half of Greeks say they will take to the streets if the government agrees to new austerity measures, according to an ALCO poll released on Friday by the newspaper Proto Thema."

...Now that, boys and girls, is what we used to call a deal breaker...

I have stocked up on popcorn...

spoonman said...

Manny,
A couple charts that would support your thesis of the bifurcated recovery - with upper/middle class doing relatively well, lower/middle classes feeling the pain. Page 4 here - investment returns driving consumption spending. At least that's what they claim, not sure how well the charts they show actually demonstrate the claim, but take it for what it's worth...

Anonymous said...

Software designer cashes in. 40-year techy from Houston wins $900,000 after Super Saver won on Saturday's Kentucy Derby.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/more-sports/software-designer-cashes-in/article1553783/

C, maybe you could have won some money.

mcHAPPY said...

Oh yes, this bailout is going to go over very well in Greece, specifically watch the video on the left

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.