Morning Audibles 4.28.10 - Too 'Cheap' To Pass Up

The following foto is of my keyboard AFTER I woke up this morning and perused the various headlines and blogosphere...




The main culprit? This little gem...


Global Stocks $1 Trillion Loss No Reason to Sell for U.S. Funds




April 28 (Bloomberg) -- The largest equity-market decline since February is failing to spur selling by the biggest U.S. money managers, who say losses will prove temporary as gains in earnings make stocks too cheap to pass up.

Greece and Portugal’s credit downgrades yesterday are no reason to doubt forecasts for profit growth exceeding 50 percent at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies through 2011, said Kenneth Fisher, who oversees about $39 billion as chairman of Fisher Investments. Almost $1 trillion of global equity value was erased on concern rising public debt will spur defaults, derailing the global economy, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

It’s a little bit like yelling fire in a movie theater -- it doesn’t mean the place is going to burn down,said Fisher, who favors mining companies, computer makers and retailers, in an interview from Woodside, California. “The quality of earnings is exceptional. Earnings are coming in overwhelmingly above expectations. I don’t see any signs that will stop.

Yeah, that's right... THIS Fisher is at it again (courtesy of MISH - thanks McHappy)



NO CREDIT! NO EXPERIENCE! (If you'd "clicked there", you'd likely have ended up THE FISHER KING)...



Others have different opinions...

“On the Greece file, the big concern now is contagion risks,” David Rosenberg said from Toronto. “The headlines were all about Greece, but the real action was in Portugal -- and it’s not pretty. So what we are talking about is heightened risk premiums at a time when a 17 VIX index was underscoring a very high level of confidence over the outlook for the economy.”

CV is very happy that Rosie was reading yesterday's WEREWOLF BLOG POST :-)

Look... I'm not here to make a call on the market direction (or timeframe), but it's mind boggling to hear someone like Fisher making a justification for staying invested in risky assets (through small sound bytes). Especially when his portrayal completely & utterly ignores MAJOR underlying forces that could (and probably will) derail his thesis (as they did in 2005)...

Or maybe there is a tooth fairy?



God knows I "feel" like my teeth are being pulled day in and day out when I hear this crap and other fairy business...

Maybe that's the whole point after all. Maybe the strategy by all the "Extend & Pretenders", the "Great Debating Societies", and the "Opinion Respecters" is to simply make me lose sufficient blood that I end up feeling happy and "unGRUMPY-fying" myself...



Then I can more properly align myself with the OTHER 7 dwarves (Happy, Sneez-ie, Dope-y, and all the other "xxxxx -ie's" on the list) and HUM A HAPPY TUNE...


I'll get to practicing that act by continuing my READING on articles like this which tell me why my PAYCHECK IS ABOUT TO GO UP...


203 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 203   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

Hear that people?

"Too cheap to PASS UP!"

McFearless said...

In a generally rising market Fisher has been right. He's always bullish and that's why. This is also known as predicting the past.

McFearless said...

C,

this post is funny man. nice job.

CV said...

@LB

You know... You were talking about your "hedges" NOT WORKING these past few days...

- Greece at Junk
- Failed Bund Auction last week
- CDS blowing out in UK
- LIBOR over 1%

It seems that this is becoming the "scare the equity foam into funding OBAMAnomics moment"

Treasury is out to "get while the gettin's good" (they see the writing on the wall)...

CV said...

@McF

I was HOPING to find a picture (with coffee spilled on the keyboard)...

I scored :-)

McFearless said...

Ken Fisher quotes:

12/10/07 …there’s room for more of a bull market ahead. I want to be the first to say we definitely are in a New Era of above-average returns… I’m expecting another above-average year ahead, an easy one. …buy stocks and be happy.

LOL, notice he used the "new era",...Socionomics.

1/28/08 I’m still bullish. Why? The larger non-U.S. economy is doing great. America isn’t doing badly… We aren’t likely to get much gloomier. Eventually we’ll come around. So 2008 is more likely to be a robust market than a bust one. Stocks are cheap, particularly compared with long-term interest rates globally…

2/25/08 I seek a parallel and find it only ten years ago. And that makes me bullish. Early 1998 saw financial crises eerily similar to today’s and a lot of hand-wringing about institutions collapsing and setting off a domino chain of other collapses. But guess what? The S&P 500 was up 28% that year.

3/24/08 We’re in the first full correction of the new leg of the bull market. …By midyear we will awaken to an ever shrinking supply of equity and a growing economy. The market will be led by big companies.

4/21/08 I’m bullish… I still think the year will end in the plus column. …Clearly folks are fearful now. So you should be greedy.

6/16/08 Now that we’ve had a full-fledged correction that scared the dickens out of everyone, stocks look wonderful.

7/21/08 Put aside your fears. The market will recover. …Markets dislike uncertainty, and uncertainty declines as Election Day nears. No guarantee the pattern will hold in 2008, but that’s the way to bet.

Markets dislike uncertainty? Oh, man, can any of you introduce me to the normally certain shops that don't deal with markets that are about probability? I want to work there, less stress.

9/1/08 I’d bet we’re most of the way through to the end of this bear market. And after bear markets end, the initial upswings come fast and steep. It would be risky to get out now and end up being whipsawed–that is, exposed to most of the decline but absent for most of the recovery. Now is the time for patience.

Yep, little hard to get out now when you have bought all the way down.

P3 puts Ken Fisher out of business, this is not a bold prediction....

call me ahab said...

CV (the "get in on the housing boom)and mchappy from the previous thread re the Mish link-

reminds me of when Tom Brokaw was on the NBC evening news in 1999 and the top story was-

"How high can the Nasdaq go?"

Those were his first words at the start of the news-

and I was thinking- wow- if that is not a sign to sell I don't what it is-

and another observation- I was trying to do a mortgage loan for a kid working as a shoe shine boy at a country club in 2005 (wow- what cajones!)- The dude's income was negligible and he was trying to buy a $500,000 house. That's when I knew the whole housing market in the DC area would implode. Needless to say- I didn't do his loan- but someone did.

come 2006- my head dizzy- I can't meet one more person w/o wanting to tell them "they were the dumbest people walking on the planet" for even thinking it was the best time to buy-

and this was always my favorite line- "when do you think I should sell my current home" and I would say-

"right now"-

and they would say- no I'll wait- it'll be worth more later-

"ok then"

so in 2006 I quit and traveled the globe- got a one way ticket to Hong Kong for $200 and was gone

McFearless said...

so ahab,

now is a great time to buy RE right? Or is it commercial RE?

:)

CV said...

@McF

Tell me something if you have time...

Any thoughts on GOLD at moment...

---

I'll tell you why I ask (so maybe you can answer in this context)... I'll preface this a little (for your contemplation)...

- You KNOW that I've been calling (since February) for Eur-USD to hit 1.29 (on May 4th - to be precise which I "penned" over two months ago)... It looks like we may be headed there, but I also think that might line up with a 5 wave conclusion on the dollar (which I stayed on board with all along)...

- Anyway - assuming that plays out, what do you see in the AFTERMATH? My "crystal ball" basically extended as far as the DOLLAR PEAKING (in which I assumed an EQUITY PULLBACK would go hand-in-hand)... My "best guess" as to the eventual LEVELS in a pullback is around 1110 right now (that jives with a .09 RETRACE from the most recent high - and I choose that number ONLY because the June pullback was EXACTLY that, as well as the JANUARY one)...

- Let's say that happens rather fast... Remember, the June '09, KT, & Jan '10 pullbacks lasted 21 days, 8 days, & 13 days respectively...

- So let's say the DOLLAR "peaks" in the next 8-21 days (subtracting TWO days already - and putting us in that May 4th zone that I'd identified)...

- What next?

- If the dollar pulls back (and equities get a little "technically oversold"), sure, some $$ is likely to pour into the S&P... But where?

- I still see the 1220 zone (the LEHMAN barrier), as being kind of a CEMETARY RIDGE... Maybe money will continue to just go into idiot banks (Dick BOVE is a genius!)...

- But I also see (with dollar headwinds), that "commodities" could get a boost here... It's going to be the only thing that SEEMS worthwhile...I'd also like to get a take on COMMODITY CURRENCIES in that case and would like to solicit "Nic's" POV on where she thinks the Loonie & the Aussie are in that scenario

- Crude may actually go up here too

- I don't know... Am I thinking about this right? Or are you totally on a different page?

My "crystal" ball basically extends until the dollar completes wave 5 (whether that is in the 82's, or even up in the 84's - as I'd said might happen)...

call me ahab said...

b22 @ 8:28-

funny link there my friend- appears Fisher is always bullish- so why would anyone trust his advice?

like the line "whoever bets against the American consumer will go broke"

wow- I guess people are are incapable of change- even with no income and no job

CV said...

@McF

Another thing... (I'm laying a lot of stuff on you here)...

The other day (on BR's site), I was looking at a chart of EARNINGS ESTIMATES...

Anyway, the chart went back a long time and, as anything, seemed to have WAVE PATTERNS...

Does EW apply "waves" to things like EPS for S&P Companies...

The reason I ask is because the PATTERN of ACTUAL REPORTED EARNINGS, to me, calculated out to be about a 61.8% retrace from the 2007 peak, down to the 2008/9 lows, and back up to CURRENT estimates...

And the reason I POINT THAT OUT is precisely for the reason to ignore comments like Fisher & Lavorgnia who are looking at "current" earnings and attempting to extrapolate those numbers into the future...

WHICH WAS THE HUGE MISTAKE ALL THESE GUYS MADE IN 2007

Especially in light of the fact that all of the earnings being produced and reported right now are based on LOOSE & STIMULATIVE MONEY, PEOPLE ReNEGING ON DEBTS, and the fact that the Obama tax bill hasn't arrived yet...

Basically, I don't see how anyone in the world could start to put $85 and $90 EPS estimates on the S&P...

I say they'll be lucky to get $50 (unless they take unemployment back up over 10%)...

call me ahab said...

b22 @ 8:38-

I think everyone knows my thought regarding RE in the near term-

I think late Spring and Summer will be pretty gruesome unless another credit is thrown in the mix-

CV @ 8:38-

I was commenting on gold the other day- I think b22 was giving me a hard time if I remember correctly(-:!!!

but should anyone trust the ETF's in gold for a long term holding strategy?

It's just paper- just like USD

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

re: DXY/USD

Check out Lara this morning at www.forexinfo.us

I was looking forward to her dollar count today after 82.05 was broken to the upside. She is calling for an extended flat correction now and expecting 83.02 BUT (and here is the big BUT), if she is correct the C down will be quite fierce and would certainly work with the idea that the HIGHS have not been reached. After anohter correction and swing higher, can you imagine how frustrated bears would be and how cocky bulls would be? It would be a mutual fund manager's dream with every Tom, Dick, and Harry running to get in before "it's too late!"

FULL DISCLOSURE: I AM THE ULTIMATE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR!

CV said...

Libor for 12-Month Dollars Rises to 1% for First Time This Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEYD1JktHcco&pos=5

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36820878

There you have it, it is official! GS is a $200 stock, Bove said so.

CV said...

@McHappy

I can FULLY see that happening...

I'm going to make my best attempt (in the next 19 trading days), to position myself accordingly...

Here's hoping for opportunities (cin-cin)...

What was ALREADY ABSURD may just be about to become "ABSURDER-ER"...

CV said...

@McHappy

I swear... I'm starting to think (on a pullback in the S&P) of using "C" as a hedge...

SHORT - SPX/ LONG C

Don't quote me on that (it's not a position - but one has to start thinking of crazy things)...

McFearless said...

C,

I gotta get into a meeting and then another at 10:30 so after lunch I'll respond in more detail.

Ahab,

I want to buy gold, but that article you linked up to was about buying gold because of inflation basically, and I can find examples where inflation didn't make it go up, so it's just flawed analysis is all.

mcHAPPY said...

Pump and dump day? I hope so.

call me ahab said...

C's going to 8.50- got that from a good source- you can bank on it!

AmenRa said...

ahab

The USG really wanted to sell C at or above $5. The mutual funds and pension plans can't touch stocks under $5. Now that C is moving away from $5 the USG is trying to get a reverse split done to convince them to buy.

AmenRa said...

ahab

C closed at 4.34 and a 1:2 reverse split would put it at 8.68 which would be inline with your "good source".

karen said...

good morning!! another BTD day in store for us? and FOMC day, to boot. Glad that wasn't your keyboard, really, CV! and Ben, thanks for all the additional KF quotes! I hope I am not going to wish I stayed in bed today... misty, moisty, morning here, too.

call me ahab said...

Ra-

I was just throwing out a target that was expressed by Bove a few days ago-

and I don't think Bove was looking at the reverse split to get to 8.50(-:!!!

but maybe that's his "Ace in the Hole"- he'll say- "see- I told you it would go to 8.50"(-:!!!

karen said...

on my e*trade screen:

Johnson & Johnson - Buy the dip?
Health care leader Johnson & Johnson shares have fallen in four of the last 5 trading days for a combined 5-day drop of -1.9%, 'very large' on our volatility-normalized scale. A historical tendency to rall...
4/27/2010 | MarketHistory.com

CV said...

@Amen (9:20)

I know you were just [snarking] there...

But actually, for s***s & giggles, I've been contemplating that REVERSE split (integer multiple of which might be changing by the day)...

Anyway...

WFC is in the low 30's
BAC is in the high teens
JPM is in the low to mid 40's

Using my "algorithmic wizardry"... I'll ballpark it in the mid 20's...

so... 1-5 would be my guess...

Or another way to calculate it would be to just REDRAW the "wave profile" on that using various integers...

Basically... See how long it would take to go from $25 back down to $5 again...

Might be a better method :-)

karen said...

volatility at the turn, anyone?

CV said...

@karen

Good "misty, moisty, morning to you!

Alotta alliteration there so early for a "crafty California queen"...

call me ahab said...

and a thought experiment- . . .does anyone think it is possible that the Fed will remove the "exceptionally low rates for an extended period" language-

can anyone think of a rationale for this? I know a couple of the members had indicated a desire to do so-

and Karen-

yeah moisty- like dipping donuts in coffee- to get them all moisty-

I use that word a lot(-:!!

ok- maybe not

karen said...

HousingWire
Invesco REIT Raises $187m to Buy MBS: Real estate investment trust (REIT) Invesco… http://goo.gl/fb/xgO4g #hw

AmericanBanking
Update: Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) Sets $680.00 Price Target on Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Removes from Conviction Buy List http://bit.ly/dCvpdR

karen said...

Ahab, I'm in tears for you. No Mother Goose at bedtime?

It was a misty, moisty morning
When cloudy was the weather
I chanced to meet an old man
Clothed all in leather...

CV said...

@karen

I'm going to ask you the same question I asked McF earlier...

Are you liking GOLD here?

I'll tell you something... Since December (when bucky turned around)... I was a GOLD BEAR...

I was thinking a move could get it down into 3 digits as bucky reached its peak...

But buckys move may be completing here within a few weeks (and gold has hung on)...

I'm going "HMMMMMMMMMMM"...

CV said...

@karen

ahab doesn't know about that kind of stuff...

Werewolf MOMS don't read their kids bedtime stories... :-)

jk-ahab!

karen said...

CV, thank you for the new word! I have always adored alliteration altho alien was the term!

call me ahab said...

CV-

are looking at miners or an ETF?

I have thinking hmmmmmmm . . .for several days

call me ahab said...

karen-

sorry to say I never heard that rhyme before as I was never read to as a child-

I did have some Dr. Suess books however

karen said...

CV, I am still cautious on gold.. the reality is you need physical or something like CEF.. because gold is becoming more and more a speculators game. I have a core position in USAGX as well as 60k shares of nxg, which has performed like cr*p for years. That said, every time it has dumped lately it's been bot and yesterday was a dream come true for the goldbugs because it ran the opposite of the dow.

karen said...

copper is NOT getting up off the mat.. neither is the euro, for that matter.

karen said...

From Right Field, a poster at Macro Man:

Point being, the FOMC announcement will once again provide real money with confirmation of the liquidity bubble and help the view that this recovery is the same as past ones. Unless there is a growth scare or change in the rate structure, real money will hold the view of a contagion relief rally and argue against a material equity correction due to the trajectory of positive data and earnings. The risk becomes real money is a buyer post the event which increases the likelihood of being trapped long should contagion accelerate to a point that real money cannot handicap. It is important to recognize that the professional community is now sensing the first real opportunity for a material correction. The divide between the two investor bases is very noticeable and this set up either leads to being trapped long or a pain trade higher, either way the move will be stronger than most can handle.

CV said...

@ahab

Here are my thoughts...

1. I'd probably say the "commodity" over the miners (because IF oil goes up as well, the miners, should get spanked on energy costs)

2. I HATE the idea of "paper commodity" ETF's because I think one day, they'll all either get blown up by people demanding the PHYSICAL (which they may not be able to produce), OR, that governments or central banks will ban trading on them)...

3. Notwithstanding #2... If we're talking about, say, a BLOWOUT move on gold (while the dollar retraces), it could happen so fast (and come back to earth) so quickly that one couldn't trade in and out of the PHYSICAL fast enough... When DEFLATION sets in (and when the dollar finishes correcting), GOLD may come right back down to where it is now (rendering the whole idea pointless)...

4. Then again, if COMMODITY CURRENCY CROSSES (more alliteration) like CAD & AUD do well vs. dollar, maybe Australian or Canadian miners do well? Nic... Do you follow the Rand?

I don't know AHAB... I'm JTOL... & soliciting opinions...

karen said...

I adore Trader Mark!

"Not sure why they bother to keep the market open between 9:30 and 4:00 PM anymore other than to lavish 7-8 firms with huge rebates for providing "liquidity"... volume is dismal on up or sideways days and only shows up on down days. Just open the market for a premarket session each day and we might be at S&P 3000 in no time."

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/04/thank-market-gods-for-premarket.html

CV said...

@karen

Thanks for your input...

Notwithstanding all my "postulates" here... I'm pretty sure I'll end up just watching that from the sidelines and simply holding onto the PHYSICAL I already have...

AmenRa said...

Is this talk of breaking up the Euro another way of making the USD the ultimate global currency? There would be no competing currencies if the Euro blows up. JTOL.

CV said...

@karen

argue against a material equity correction due to the trajectory of positive data and earnings

That's the EXACT mistake everyone was making in the latter months of 2007...

"Trajectory"... It's a bad thing!

If that's your main argument, then IT'S TRUE... Everything IS going to infinity!

I must be in a dream... We ARE, actually, Romans... That empire never ended...

CV said...

@Amen

If (I should say "when") the Euro blows up...

Ultimately there will be NO SUCH THING as an "ultimate global currency"...

It'll be a RACE TO THE BOTTOM (in the efforts to devalue)...

This will precipitate TRADE WAR CITY! (and the first volley in that maneuver will be "every man for himself")...

The Germans are already showing that they're willing to go this route...

& as Dumb as people are in this country, I doubt Americans, in the end, are going to stand for BAILING OUT THE WORLD with Bernanke's printing press...

CV said...

@Amen

In that process, YES, "bucky" acts as a temporary proxy...

But it's just a step in getting from HERE to THERE...

mcHAPPY said...

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/36823137/1

The longer the games go on the more it is going to hurt. A question everyone knows but I'll state it again: so if they bail out Greece, what about Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Spain, Baltic, what ever happened to Dubai, Baltic states, etc.?

Let say each country needs on average $100 BILLION over 3 years, multiplied by the number of countries.... darn it, my calculator doesn't have that many digits.

It is time for people around the world to accept they/we/I have lived beyond our means for far too long. The credit bubble has burst. It is time to write off some debt, or heaven forbid, pay some back.

CV said...

heaven forbid!

After all... They are doing GOD's WORK!

AmenRa said...

Senate will have 3rd vote on Financial Reform today. 3 strikes and you're out!

mcHAPPY said...

My above semi-rant inspired this little ditty. It is not quite what Paul Stanley and Gene Simmons had in mind, but I hope you all enjoy it nonetheless:


Deflation I hear you calling,
But I can't come home right now.
Me and the boys are prayin'
The rest of the world don't figure out.
Just a few more hours,
and you can pay your due.
Deflation I hear you calling,
But deflation what can us credit junkies do?
Deflation what can we do?

CV said...

God says...

"I don't want you to pay anything back"

CV said...

The Devil says...

"You can pay ME if you want"

CV said...

CV says...

"Quit mucking up the blog comments you guys!"

call me ahab said...

gotta roll-

many good thoughts on this thread today (like everyday)-

CV-- thx for the 9:53 reply- I can see you are- much like a super computer- calculating all the angles- Deep Blue got nothing on you!

final thought- yesterday I was reading a quote from Portuguese official- saying that Moody's downgrade just makes it harder for them-

boy that got a chuckle out of me- throwing logic on its head- I guess the countries w/ the best balance sheets should pay the highest rates because they can better afford it- lol

will touch base in the PM-

all have a W.U.N.D.E.B.A.R. day

Nic said...

If the German parliament vote Nien here then it will be like the first bailout vote all over again.

CV said...

@Nic

You know that's going to happen!

Nic said...

Yeah the bunds are whispering it. Its going to be a yes and we can have our sixth "Greece is saved" rally

CV said...

@Nic

I can't even believe we're still talking about this...

Then again, yes I can... I said as much here...

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010_02_21_archive.html

Remember the MACRO picture as well. Greece has until March 16th to come up with its deficit proposal. If you believe in "market manipulation" theories, it would be easy to conjure up a scenario where Euro shorts are SQUEEZED OUT OF TOWN here on rumors that Germany is going to take a "hardline" approach to this. I expect to see a bunch of headlines on Germans grumbling about Greeks and Greek "austerity" measures.

CV said...

@Nic

Musical accompaniment:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf5IP8r0gWk

CV said...

@Nic

If you were reading some of the above comments...

Assuming the following (which may or may not come to pass - but assume it DOES)...

Let's say the DXY gets into the 83's and Eur-USD hit around 1.29's...

Where would you stand on CAD & AUD at that moment?

CV said...

or BOB...

Feel free to chime in (or do you stick with Eur-USD crosses)?

bob said...

I got my ass kicked by some leverage this morning and am backing away from the computer.

Nic said...

SPAIN DOWNGRADED

I-Man said...

Did something just break?

I-Man said...

Thx Nic!

Nic said...

Bob
These are very difficult days in FX, hang in. Its not always like this.

Mannwich said...

Looks like Spain broke. Lehman, Bear, subprime all over again. We're all subprime now!

Nic said...

CV
AUD is really a risk barometer and follows stocks and China. China indices are not doing good and its only a matter of time before AUD follows ... and on a % basis AUD is a great trade.
CAD is similar but affected by crude not China and good US news is often seen as good for CAD (as in export) so CAD is a good trade but AUD might be more rewarding. In its favour it is cheaper to sell CAD than AUD because of the yield/carry costs.

Nic said...

Buy the dips algos!
Spain only needs TEN TIMES as much money as Greece after all.

bob said...

Thanks nic,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efsDAhM5TJE

Just need a break, and a new look at things.

I prefer the longer views and everything now is very short term. Too much noise to spot trends.

I-Man said...

And Greece only needs 10x more money than they think they do!!!

Nic said...

Italy 10yrs are doing worse than Spain ... not downgraded yet either.

Mannwich said...

Relax everyone. "Money" is just a concept. We'll just act like none of these debts exist. There. Problem solved.

CV said...

@Nic

Monday was a HOLIDAY in Italy...

They're probably just getting around to it now...

CV said...

Classic Rosie

McFearless said...

C,

catching up from earlier.

1. No, I've never seen EWI use a wave count on earnings over the years.

2. Everything you said about gold is "logical" but of course we know markets are not. This is all my opinion I really have no count on gold right now and have been confused by it for several months now, so I just do nothing, but here goes:

There are several things that concern me and why I will not buy gold up here, for better or worse:

First, gold is supposed to be an insurance policy, a safe haven against markets and fiat. It just isn't doing that, instead it is rising together with stocks and other paper. Something I never see gold bugs bring up. I also never see gold bugs want to talk about where silver is in relation to it's all-time highs vs. gold. All gold bugs live by the inflation thesis, but that can't explain silver can it.

Second, gold is supposed to go up in times of fear, yet spot prices haven't gone back to where they were in December, it's not as if many problems haven't been pushed to the forefront here in early 2010, Greece and others aside, we've had almost 60 banks fail already. Now, gold I think has hit new highs in the Yen and some other currencies, but I'm going to buy gold with dollars, so that's what I care about. Given this, I don't really assume gold is a good value here at 1100's, I would have been smart to buy at 700 but I did not. My plan now is to begin to accumulate once it goes below 1,000. I'm sticking with the deflation outlook and that means gold will go down as well, if it goes all the way down to 680 or even lower and I started buying in the 9's who cares. Once I buy it I'll never get rid of it, unless of course I need it to live with. I think this is important to point out, if I'm buying bullion it's not because I'm doing short term speculation.

third, this is where it becomes opinion but I think sentiment on gold reached a fever pitch last year. You had big news about all kinds of hedge fund guys getting into gold, China and India did a bunch of buying, you could buy gold bars in vending machines and in department stores, cash4gold commercials and gold parties became common and DSI sentiment reached above 90% bulls. I also find it very interesting how many people are participating in the huge fraud that is GLD. There is not anywhere near enough gold in the vaults to take delivery, it's probably leveraged much like the US dollar is, about 100:1.

That's probably about enough....

karen said...

State and Local Governments: Waiting for Godot?
April 27, 2010

One has to go back to the Great Depression to find a period when the state of municipal finance was worse than today. According to “The Postwar Quality of State and Local Debt” by George H. Hempel, from 1929 to 1937 approximately 15% of the average amount of municipal debt outstanding—some $2.85 billion representing 4,771 state and local government issuers—paid late and were in temporary default.


http://annaly.com/blog/2010/04/27/StateAndLocalGovernmentsWaitingForGodot.aspx

CV said...

...and CLASSIC WANGER (on Rosie)

by HarryWanger
on Wed, 04/28/2010 - 10:03
#321731

If I listened to Rosenberg in August when he screamed that we were at a top and shorted, I'd be living in the streets. Again, I don't see the fascination with someone who has been pretty consistently wrong regarding the markets for the past 8 months.

McFearless said...

Nic,

what do you think about short AUD against the Yen?

CV said...

@McF

Thanks for those GOLD views...

karen put out out some thoughts as well on that...

I really haven't thought much about GOLD at all for a LONG TIME now (but recently the chart has been puzzling me)...

I'm sure I'm going to end up doing NOTHING there in the end...

CV said...

@McF

See if these comments from Rosie change any opinions on AUD...

So, we have the problems in Euroland, signs of a property bubble in China, and the darling Brazilian economy now in overheating phase to such an extent that the central bank is about to hike rates 100bps in one fell swoop (did we mention the Henry Tax Review in Australia, which is due out on Sunday and set to propose tax changes for the resource and banking sectors?)

CV said...

I learned a new word today...

"schizobubble"

Nic said...

McF
AUDJPY is what I trade instead of the S&P. It moves the same but behaves better.

CV said...

People may take me for being GRUMPY...

Actually - it's the farthest thing from the truth...

I laugh my head off all day long reading comments from Wanger, and learning words like "schizobubble"...

Nic said...

Italy and Ireland bonds getting killed.
Italy is the #2 issuer of sovereign debt in the world... Arnd $1.4trln outstanding

McFearless said...

"Relax everyone. "Money" is just a concept. We'll just act like none of these debts exist. There. Problem solved."

Well, this sounds good, but the bond market doesn't agree. Nic's 12:04, for starters.

CV said...

@Nic

Looks like we might hit my "1.29" handle 3 days early...

I HATE IT it when I make bad calls like that! :-(

CV said...

@McF

Where was that expression from...

I vaguely remember it... refresh my memory...

Nic said...

Fibonacci timing suggests a low in EURUSD today, so see where we get to.

CV said...

@Nic

What FIBO timing are you referring to?...

DAILY, I'd have us at 105 days since the highs...

CV said...

@Nic

And anyway, from FEBRUARY, I always had it "modeled" as a declining wedge (with a May 4th apex conclusion)...

RAW... but basically...

Nic said...

CV - http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=3974608&id=366915043266

Nic said...

Re the Bloomberg story in your post CV. This suggests the smart money is selling some:
http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/04/smart-moneys-selling-equities-hedge.html

CV said...

@Nic

Thanks...

I'm still sticking with 129.22 (on May 4th)

CV said...

@Nic

"Smart Money" (what an oxymoron, when you think about it)...

Anyway... The POT HAS CERTAINLY BEEN STIRRED...

@McF

Notice "The Wall Streeter Who Blogs" post last night? OPEN THREAD...

Seems OPEN THREADS always magically "pop up" over there on 200 point down days...

Seems that there are many "FISHERS" out there (in this case, "a fisher" for THE PULSE)...

Kenneth Fisher ought to start a blog... Let his commentators tell him how to trade his position instead of just talking about "not seeing signs of stopping"...

Nic said...

In other news ... CANADA HOUSE PRICE INDEX FOR FEBRUARY SHOWED HOME VALUES ROSE 9.9% FROM A YEAR EARLIER
Its actually much higher than that in Vancouver and Toronto. Anways, no bubbler here, no sir-ree

CV said...

@Nic

That "crack house" (in Vancouver) that KD had on his site the other week probably goes up $10,000 a week in price...

It's probably $2mil by now! - lol

CV said...

@Nic

Look at the bright side...

There are probably not as many swimming pools with Canadian properties...

So when the whole thing goes BOOM, you won't have all those mosquito and algae infested horrors to bother with (like California, AZ, Nev, & Fla)...

karen said...

my currrent read: hot money nervous hence compq down. financials up expecting zirp forever reiterated by fed today.. miners playing catchup to $gold. $wtic confusing me : )

karen said...

more from my <3, Trader Mark:

f the S&P can break below yesterday's lows, I'd be interested in pressing new index shorts as technically it would be bearish. Obviously the 2:15 PM FOMC announcement causes some trickery, but really I can't see them changing one thing. (it's a shame rates are at zilch, or Ben could of done an emergency rate cut today since the market should not be down 2 days in a row) But until then we are in a very tight range of 1183 to 1193. Obviously any close below the latter number would be the 2nd day below the 20 day moving average. And then we can see futures up tomorrow to try to right that again ;)

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/04/another-retest-of-yesterdays-lows.html

Really, I do think he is funny!

CV said...

@karen

My current read:

em gnisufnoc citw$ .dlog ot puhctac gniyalp sremin .. yadot def yb detaretier reverof priz gnitcepxe pu slaicnanif...

Oh wait... That was just reading YOUR comments Japanese style (backwards)... jk

SOMEBODY has to be LB here today! :-)

Anonymous said...

Ladies and Gents,

I figured I'd make a very late introduction. I have been an avid reader since the days of Barry's website being on typepad, Steve Barry shorting the hell out of the Qs back in 2008, and the move from TBP to AT's blog to here.

I want to thank all of you for providing me with an essential education on capital markets. I'm a student in a healthcare field that dabbles in trading occasionally, and with all your commentary, I have learned so much. CV seems to have unlimited experience in all sorts of arcane knowledge, LB and his knowledge of the credit markets, to ben22 and his suggestions of shorting silver, to Andy T's use of TA on everything, etc. But most of all I enjoy the contrarian approach and insight into the "mindset". Additionally, I did make some money over the years; I believe Karen recommended TBT back in Dec 08, Ben22/LB recommended TLT last June, and b22 also recommended shorting the dips in SLV, since it's a more levered/more retail version of gold.

Anyways, as for actual content, I'm not really good at that so I lurk. However, I find it interesting that gold is on a hot streak but silver can't follow up. I bot EUO and ZSL yesterday, so color me surprised when silver had a good pop on the Spain downgrade. IMO SLV is approaching some resistance around 18, so I figure it's good for a short to the low 17s.

Hope this isn't too creepy. Stay safe out there; I'm waiting for the euro bump due to short covering. It's getting a little too crowded like the DGDF trade last year.

-drew

Colin said...

We've been talking about the USD-market relationship breaking, I'm wondering if the Euro-zone drama brings these two squiggles back in line (and I'm betting the dollar is a better truth teller):
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1272473014203&chddm=170671&cmpto=INDEXSP:.INX&cmptdms=0&q=MUTF:DXDDX&

CV said...

@karen

On a serious note...

There is... TO ME... A VERY SERIOUS look one has to take at the MONTHLY CANDLE on the $SPX...

Yesterday I pointed this out...

The 144SMA on that MONTHLY CANDLE (going all the way back to 1987 - and probably prior), NEVER closed UNDER that 144SMA until September 2008 (Lehman)...

The "level" as we speak is around 1192 (and the April candle is drawing to a close)...

So, I'd bet if we get ANY movement above 1192, it would keep that number closely guarded through the Friday close...

Anything to the downside is another story... (No MAJOR technical threats there)...

CV said...

Keep in mind, for reference...

During the 2002 recession, the MONTHLY CANDLES bounced along that 144SMA for 9 months...

The monthly close NEVER took it out...

It seems to be a tough line to get through...

CV said...

Thanks for the 'shout out' drew... :-)

karen said...

Ha! Drew, welcome, but wish you would contribute more often! Funny you mention silver today.. I don't care for it at all as a store of value.. but as the "poor man's gold" (rolling my eyes) it does sometimes act as a tell for $gold.. To make a long story short.. Tulving is selling silver at spot.. In other words, it is plentiful.

McFearless said...

@Colin,

Been wondering that myself, nice link.

@C,

nah, missed the TBP thread. I stopped going again recently, too many discussions about effiecient markets, I can get that on CNBC right. I only check out a few sites in any given day now, or read the links people put up here.

McFearless said...

Drew,

thanks man, glad I could/can help some. that's not the usual post from a lurker, usually it's about all of our wrong calls.

I-Man said...

I'm about as tuned out as I can be at the moment... and loving it.

I'm done waiting for it to turn, the market will let me know when I need to pay attention again.

karen said...

CV, it is neat that this Friday is the last day of the week and the month!

CV said...

@McF

Andy T made TWO posts on that thread...

It's amazing how Andy T's words were some of the FEW comments that were grounded in any in any kind of FRAMEWORK...

That's the best word I could use to describe it... FRAMEWORK meaning... Knowing where you stand and why you stand there (right or wrong)...

McFearless said...

C,

so...you are saying I should just skip reading it then? ha!

the last few times I had gone over there ahab was probably pushing the limit with BR.

karen said...

Colin, the tightest $spx proxy seems actually to have been (and be) the $xad:$usd, as Nic originally pointed out.

CV said...

@karen (1:02)

Yeah, that sets up A LOT of potential variables with regards to 3LB's...

The MONTHLY isn't in jeopardy, but the WEEKLY, I think is around 1166... AMEN RA could verify that...

Lat time the WEEKLY was reversed was with the January correction...

Reversal there and we're likely going down to 1110...

AmenRa said...

Vote to bring Financial Reform up for debate failed for the 3rd time...

McFearless said...

I have to imagine others here have the same deja vu feeling as me right now. All these countries scrambling to "stem the crisis" very similar to when all the world's central banks got together in late 2007 to do the same thing.

mcHAPPY said...

@Colin

"We've been talking about the USD-market relationship breaking, I'm wondering if the Euro-zone drama brings these two squiggles back in line (and I'm betting the dollar is a better truth teller):"

I believe the relationship between USD and everything else has been in effect for about a decade now. My observation in looking back is the relationship is clearly there. The divergence comes at market turns (take a look at a chart of July until the end of September '08 as a perfect example of divergence between DXY and S&P500 - notice when the pattern re-emerged).

In the last 3 months, the divergence has becoming more and more evident EXCEPT on big down days. Since the start of February the DX is up about 5% and the S&P500 was up about 12% until Monday.

True traders, while surely aware of this, may not overly care because by nature they are in and out and long term posititions are rare - unless they ride a good trend. However, if I was a buy and holder I would be living by the mantra of "cash is king".

Do not forget this is a credit crisis in a global economy HEAVILY reliant on credit anyway you slice and/or dice it.

AmenRa said...

CV

SPX has had problems staying above 1191.94 which is the weekly 3LB mid.

bob said...

"Vote to bring Financial Reform up for debate failed for the 3rd time... "

I loved LB's projection that the repubs would not take back congress. I agreed after thinking about it. I think this plays into it.

CV said...

FWIW -

The WEEKLY 144SMA on $spx is around 1152 right now (and trending down)...

Since 1150 is a level many are looking at for (for various technical reasons), it could be considered a destination...

1152 is also the .055 FIBO retrace from 1219.8... (the KT correction was that depth)...

McFearless said...

Some local news:

Friday, April 23, 2010
Phila. arts legal group sees influx of volunteer lawyers
PHILADELPHIA BUSINESS JOURNAL - BY Jeff Blumenthal STAFF WRITER


Less than two years after being on the brink of collapsing, Philadelphia Volunteer Lawyers for the Arts said it more than doubled its number of new volunteer lawyers last year, allowing it to increase its caseload by 25 percent.

The influx of volunteers largely comes from the scads of lawyers laid off as well as recent law school graduates who had their start dates deferred or were not able to find jobs. Officials said they added 66 new volunteer lawyers in 2009, compared to 26 the year before. There were more than 500 total volunteers, who handled a total of 1,189 total cases assisting 115 arts-and-cultural organizations and 475 individual artists. The value of the pro bono legal services was $255,873 last year.

McFearless said...

did people happen to watch the Peter Schiff vs. j. Galbraith video I put up yesterday. Interesting to say the least.

CV said...

@McF

"All these countries scrambling to "stem the crisis"

My FAVORITE, today, was the SHORT SALE BAN by the Greek sec...

That one ALWAYS bowls me over :-)

AmenRa said...

OT: Is there a way to have a motion for a bill/law with no amendments?

CV said...

@McF

The other DEJA-VU aspect of it is that, like before, it's all happening as LIBOR is creeping up...

Colin said...

@McF

Completely agree on the assessment, I have found it interesting to watch the correlation move back to -1 for DXY:SPY, for these brief shocks. I don't know when the convergence returns, but its going return.

mcHAPPY said...

@bob

Absolutely. Dems blame republicans for not passing any legislation. The populist opinion is reform - eventhough the current one was awful. I think Mish said it best (something to the effect of) until the banks are crying at politicians door and screaming on CNBS, you can be certain the legislation will do nothing to change current culture.

karen said...

Jim Sinclair calling for hyper-inflation:

All sovereign debt in the condition of immediate default will be rescued.

Greece is out of cash as we speak. Maybe they will try IOUs as California did.

Hyperinflation now seems to be a situation that will be introduced by an "All World Currency Crisis" in confidence. That is what Gold is saying.

http://jsmineset.com/

bob said...

"Let's say the DXY gets into the 83's and Eur-USD hit around 1.29's..."

I think AUD and CAD would both be down. They are commodity producers, and if USD gets that much higher commodity users are going to not use so much.

Went for a walk and listened to Bob-

'Money doesn't talk it swears'

karen said...

ben, i didn't see you peter schiff link!

Nic said...

Debt Action:
US Sells $42 Bln In 5-Year Notes At 2.54%; Bid-To Cover 2.75%
I am not LB but that seems "OK"
U.S. TREASURY: 2-yr yield is up 4 bps to 1.04%, 10-yr yield is up 6 bps to 3.74%, and the 30-yr yield is 4 bps higher to 4.61%.

CV said...

@bob

In the end, I consider the idea as to whether or not the GOP takes back Congress, a sideshow...

I equate it to the GREEK BAILOUT...

For Pete's sake, they've been gum flapping about this since January...

In the long run, the market, the economy, whatever, is going to go where its going to go...

It'll steamroll the Dems... It would likewise steamroll the GOP...

Doesn't make a difference in the end (except WHO gets saddled with the blame)...

Who's "watch" does it occur on?

Here... I'll give you an example...

CV "promises" to go on ASTEROID WATCH from now until December 21st, 2012... If an asteroid hits the planet and annihilates us... YOU CAN ALL BLAME IT ON ME... If time expires first... Somebody else step up to carry the albatross...

LOL

McFearless said...

C,
Oh for sure.
I made a comment about the short ban this morning on the other thread. Guess those guys missed our attempt at that in 08....lol.

Here is the Schiff link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnKsgelpuHU

bob said...

I agree its a sideshow, they are both neck deep in conflicts of interest.

Galbraith/schiff video not working at the moment, would like to see it.

CV said...

@McF

Thanks for the link...

While I'm at it... Hey buddy... Can YOU go on ASTEROID WATCH when I step down? It's a 2 year gig...

You up for it?

karen said...

I imagine LB is nestled between his twins today.. thanks for the report, Nic.. nothing to fear with the 10 below 4 and the 30 below 5 and not about to break out, imo. bland auction, don't you think? (bland like $vix!)

AmenRa said...

McF

Watched the video. Easy to notice the difference between one who makes/loses money and one who teaches about it.

karen said...

thanks, ben, playing now!

CV said...

It's a dumb job, but it DOES have perks...

#1 You end up with BETTER HEALTHCARE BENEFITS than the average citizen.

#2 You get to sit in hearings and ask STUPID QUESTIONS to scientists.

#3 Endless selection of "call girls" at your disposal.

Nic said...

I think the Gold surge yesterday was safehaven kneejerk reaction to the Euro problems and not falling stocks and rising dollar.
The past five months every time the vix has gone up and stocks has gone down Gold has also fallen.
Apologies to the Gold bugs but I would not fall too in love with the longs.

CV said...

@McF

Is it as good as "Hugh Hendry vs Joe Stiglitz"?

spoonman said...

"Easy to notice the difference between one who makes/loses money and one who teaches about it..."

I thought the same thing when I watched the Stiglitz/Hendry "conversation" a while back.

Nic said...

Funny thing these short bans. I love the argument that GS was quick to ask for one for 900 financial stocks when the market was collapsing but happy to short the "American Dream" of home ownership.

CV said...

@Nic

Yeah... Bottom line is that I tend to agree...

I was just waking up in a panic attack recently seeing the May 4 time converge with a 5 wave completion on bucky...

Because The Afterparty

McFearless said...

Nah, not that good C, and sure, I'll do Asteroid watch, ha!.

Nic, great point at 1:31 regarding stocks/Vix and Gold. You have to be concerned they continue to move in concert like that.

As for politics, if you believe in P3 like I do, objectively you should vote for the candidates you like the least. That is my plan this year.

bob said...

The way I see things, Stiglitz, Hendry and Galbraith are on the same side.

What did Hendry say was gong to happen to bond yields and savings in the US?

McFearless said...

@Ra,

no doubt, what's that saying, those that can't do...teach.

karen said...

Erin is no longer cute to me.. Schiff is fantastic.
Safehaven knee jerk, I agree! I will be watching the $hui:$gold or gdx:gld ratios with interest, tho.

spoonman said...

cv,
Nothing gets better than Hendry's look of utter disdain for Stiglitz. "Uh..hello? Can I tell you about the real world?" Priceless.

AmenRa said...

5 yr auction

PD 36.7% -12.9
DB 14.3% +3.5
IB 48.9% +9.2

PD stayed home, DB (aka Bernanke) increased purchases and IB increased purchases (probably folks running as fast as possible from Greece).

CV said...

@karen

Erin "lost it" with me the other week when she & Cramer were stomping on that guy that was reaming Goldman...

karen said...

I hope the indices don't cha-cha-cha today.. my nerves our frazzled..

speaking of nerves, AR, how are you?

CV said...

@AmenRa

Yeah... Overall, not a bad week for the UST to issue a bunch of crappy paper...

For Pete's sake, they should have put the whole 1.7T kit and kaboodle up for auction while they were at it...

AmenRa said...

karen

Getting better. Drugs are good (in the voice of the teacher on South Park). Stretching helps also.

McFearless said...

I realize not everyone here is into e-wave. one commong claim I see on blogs is that e-wave is subjective. this was on the message board today so I figured I'd share:

Question:

I have seen CNBC interview Steve Hochberg a couple times now. It seems that the interviewer is always trying to discredit him and Elliott wave. That's not usually the case when another guest suggests a bearish future. Am I interpreting that correctly? If so, I assume you guys are used to skeptics, but how do you address the argument that Elliott wave analysis is too subjective for reliable projections?

Answer:

RP is the responder:

I always ask, “compared to what?” There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts who look at the same “fundamental” news event -- a war, the level of interest rates, the P/E ratio, GDP reports, you name it -- and come up with countless opposing conclusions. They generally don’t even bother to study the data. Show me a forecasting method that is totally objective or contains no human interpretation. There is no such thing, even in a black box. To answer your question more specifically, though, properly there should be no subjectivity in interpreting Elliott waves patterns. There is a set of rules and guidelines for that interpretation. Interpretation gives you only the most probable scenario(s), not a sure one. But people mislabel probabilistic forecasting as subjectivity. And subjectivity or bias can ruin that value, just as in any other approach. Sometimes we screw up. But in contrast to the outrageously improbable (if not downright false) wave interpretations or other types of forecasts we often see from others, we are as close to an objective service as you’re going to find. We hire analysts who know the rules of Elliott cold.

CV said...

@McF

RP couldn't get a word in edgewise when he was facing the FAST MONEY crew the other week...

Faces were turning red, necklines were bursting!

Najarian was "foaming at the mouth"...

CV said...

Tan Joe was turning "brickish" in color...

CV said...

No Melissa Lee that day...

I can't imagine what her lips might have been doing!

McFearless said...

yeah, people wrote in to him about that too. I'd imagine he's used to it by now, he's been a punching bag for about 20 years now, I guess everyone forgets that for the last decade his predictions have generally been better than anyone else I know, as they were from the mid 70's to the late 80's.

He got stuck in his own corrective fourth wave in the 90's.

AmenRa said...

This market looks like a panther ready to pounce. It's been relatively flat since 12:30.

McFearless said...

2:15 Ra, I can barely breath waiting on the Wizards words.

laughing....

CV said...

The WIZARD might have the main card here (as far as INTEREST is concerned)...

BIDU reports after the close today (if anyone is interested - I'm not)...

Let's see, what else?

VISA (after hours)

Tomorrow:
- COP
- FO
- Various Biotech
- POT
- Siemens
- Tesoro

Friday:
- not really much (of interest) unless someone steps up and MAKES it interesting...

McFearless said...

ha, I just watched the levin video from yesterday, was the whole purpose to say shitty as many times as possible?

let's drop some f bombs already.

CV said...

@karen

By the way...

Yesterday I came to the conclusion that the market is more scared of WEREWOLVES than it is of KRACKENS...

So I'll hold that piece of information handy for further use :-)

AmenRa said...

On Bloomberg they had a body language expert taling about the hearings. He said Lloyd was looking at the Senators with contempt because they didn't understand what GS actually does.

karen said...

Probability of Rate Hike Tool

CV said...

Helicopter Ben says...

"Only a 'tool' would hike rates"

DL said...

AmenRa @ 2:13

The more I have learned about the details of the synthetic CDO transaction (involving Paulsen), the more that I think that what GS did wasn't so bad.

Probably not much worse than what the average stockbroker or used car salesman does on a regular basis.

Nic said...

FOMC:
US Fed Interest Rate Decision stays unchanged.
all liquidity facilities closed except TALF
Lower for longer language stays, the only dissenter was Hoenig
Looking less likely fed will hike this year ...

CV said...

@Nic

Looks like Gordie had a open mic gaffe...

Brown calls voter 'bigoted' in campaign gaffe

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100428/wl_uk_afp/britainvote

CV said...

Hoenig for Fed Chair!

Ironworker said...

Fed Press Release:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100428a.htm

Salient portion:
"The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."
ZIRP-along...
IW

karen said...

oh my.. is this the calm before the storm? have we ever seen such a dull reaction to "the news?"

CV said...

@DL

Tell that to Jefferson County, Alabama...

karen said...

the ten and 30 moved to the high of the day...

McFearless said...

Ra,

Yes, from what I've seen that is pretty clear. I'm not sure why they think they can ask effective questions when they understand nothing. McCain was the best example of this.

The questions were really.....shitty.

DL said...

CV @ 2:21

Not sure what you mean.

Unless that's just another name for "J6P".

I-Man said...

Quick! Everybody go buy something... Nothing to fear.

DL said...

McF @ 2:23

I actually am reluctant to underestimate the POLITICAL skill of senators. They are often moronic about a lot of things. But I think they tend to get the politics right.

Even Senator Levin.

CV said...

@IW

low rates of resource utilization

He'd better tell that to Ken Fisher (who thinks we're going to Pluto)...

I suppose I can see the path though...

Let's see, if you fire MORE WORKERS and take U-3 up to 15%, you'll probably get to around 40% on the foreclosures...

Which means you'd have MORE people NOT paying mortgages (and living for free)...

More "spending" in the economy...

Yeah, I can see $90 EPS estimates going forward...

Nic said...

I think we are about to retrace yesterday.

CV said...

@DL

I'm talking about ANY of these "instruments" CDOS, CDS, whatever, that these guys bundle up and bankrupt other dupes on...

Never feels too good to the dup-ee in the end...

Nor the taxpayers who have to pony up the bill for it...

But to YOU it's fine...

You can trade E-mini's off of it...

AmenRa said...

I think all Senate and House members on financial committees should have to take courses on finance, economics, FA and TA. Make it mandatory.

McFearless said...

DL,

2:25, if that's the case, why make a comment about how you don't think what Goldman did is "that bad"

What does how bad it is have to do with anything if it's about politics?

I-Man said...

Let's go to 1212...

AmenRa said...

Nic

I always give the market 30min after the Fed statement before determining which direction it wants to go.

McFearless said...

We stopped almost exactly at the 61.8 before this last sell-off, there is no way that is it, P2 isn't going to top right on a fibo retrace like that.

DL said...

Jim Cramer had a comment yesterday about Goldmans' "failure to disclose".

He made an analogy with the government of Greece, and how it failed to disclose a lot of things when peddling its bonds.

Maybe we should charge THEM with fraud.

McFearless said...

"I think all Senate and House members on financial committees should have to take courses on finance, economics, FA and TA. Make it mandatory."

Two comments:

1. main problem is, what kind of finance and economics are they going to be taught?

and

2. That should be mandatory for everyone imo.

McFearless said...

DL,

Greece should be charged with fraud, maybe in a year or two. I'm reading rumors that Giethner will be as well, only rumors though for now.

CV said...

@DL (2:34)

Gimme a break!

If that's the case than Goldman didn't do it's due diligence (and they're NOT the geniuses we thought)...

You can't have your cake and eat it too...

No alligator tears here!

DL said...

McFearless @ 2:31

There are differnt issues. The specific charge against GS was motivated by politics, but the final disposal will depend, in part, on the legal merits.

What the Senators were discussing yesterday were many issues in addition to the specific SEC charges against GS. So there are a variety of issues here, and much depends on exactly which one you are referring to.

DL said...

CV,

I think we're going to need a new thread soon.

CV said...

@McF

what kind of finance and economics are they going to be taught?

That's EASY... It's Keynesian 24-7...

They put you in a room like "A Clockwork Orange" and pummel it into you until you're a vegetable!

CV said...

OK DL - NEW THREAD UP

DL said...

CV @ 2:37

My understanding is that, with respect to the SEC complaint, GS was acting as a "market maker" in a synthetic CDO, and not as a fiduciary giving financial advice.

Nic said...

I think the GS guys yesterday handled the questions pretty well considering what they were up against.
Re DL and what they actually did, I don't think what they did was worse than any other hedgefund or IB out there, that really is business as usual for them. It is dog eat dog out there.

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

McFearless said...

C,

sort of my point, if we educate a bunch of senators on that then I don't even want to know what they'd do with the knowledge.

DL,

I made the point about McCain, he went in and asked questions that had absolutely nothing to do with the case. I understand what you are saying now. McCain made a fool of himself yesterday imo.

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