Morning Audibles 4.30.10 - Holy Cow! Criminal Charges?









From NYT
"Federal prosecutors have opened an investigation into trading at Goldman Sachs, raising the possibility of criminal charges against the Wall Street giant, according to people familiar with the matter.


While the investigation is still in a preliminary stage, the move could escalate the legal troubles swirling around Goldman."


From Bloomberg
“In order to proceed criminally in a case, you need to have very clear evidence” said Jensen, a former deputy chief of the criminal division of the U.S. attorney’s office in the Southern District of New York who served on that office’s securities fraud task force.


Oh wait... WRONG GOLDMAN


Goldman "Sachs" Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein said in an interview with CBS News this week: “It is my belief that nothing unethical and nothing illegal has happened, but I will tell you if I discovered something like this, or any senior person at Goldman Sachs discovered illegal or unethical behavior, we would eliminate that from the firm.” (just like OJ)...


"Let me introduce you to my little friend"


While this is all fun to see splashed on to the front pages of all the news outlets, CV has "high skepticism" that anything significant will come of it. In fact, it might all just be the latest in the never ending diversionary tactics by the TPTB/Administration to keep you looking in the wrong direction...


"The major has been shot! Round up all the usual suspects!"


But it is fun to contemplate the possibilities. (can I take my money with me to jail?)


"Get your hands off my money"


In the end, though. It'll probably wind up "business as usual"


"These aren't the bankers you are looking for"


Because they've convinced everyone they're TOO BIG TO JAIL!




And even if some criminal charges were to stick, the perpetrators would most likely just end up sharing some bunk time at a CLUB FED type facility.



So it's best that we save our "HOLY COW's" for when they truly mean something (like the fact that it's the weekend, and your lawn needs mowing)...



Look...a chart! HOLY COW (and your lawn still needs mowing)...









375 comments:

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mcHAPPY said...

MSM has not picked up on the SAFE Banking Act. I wonder if no one believes it has a chance to pass which is why there is little-no discussion on it anywhere - except here and KD. But even all of us are skeptical. FAZ hasn't noticed pre-market - whoops! - just double checked, looks like it has.

Anonymous said...

Morning all
CV, this site rocks
Later

Foghorn Longhorn

AmenRa said...

What are the chances that GS is buying back their stock so they can take the company private?

CV said...

@AmenRa

Let's just hope they don't buy it back at OVER $160 a share (lest we lose karen forever)...

@FL ;-)

McFearless said...

Kind of interesting there isn't even much buzz about GDP this morning.

AmenRa said...

1. It's a ploy by the Obama administration to get more Repubs on board for Financial Regs.

2. Keep the American public in the dark about the IMF bailout of Greece (more taxpayers money).

3. Obama's offshore driling just got hosed so keep attention elsewhere.

4. FDIC bank closure list may be larger than normal today.

JTOL

McFearless said...

In case anyone is confused by the Fusion chart with AAII, bulls did in fact increase again this week, bulls jumped from 38 to 41 while bears dropped from 34 to 28.6.

To say that bullish sentiment is waning is just plain dumb, I've seen several technicians point out that the sentiment also tends to moderate at tops as optimism fades, you don't see it at bottoms because fear doesn't slowly dissipate, it spikes. There are way too many examples of bullish sentiment to make a statement about how it is waning.

CV said...

@Amen

Probably a little of "all of the above"...

#2 is most compelling...

Why?

The latest "claptrap" from Europe is for a $159 billion bailout...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1oOwudcKN2g&pos=2

Neither the EU, nor the IMF has that kind of dough... (especially considering the REAL PRICETAG for Greece alone is likely "double"), and that Greece is only the tip of the iceberg of the problems...

As soon as Greece is put to bed, THE SWARM will head straight to the next feast (it already has as you've seen credit spreads start to widen in Portugal & everywhere else)...

This is at the point like when it was only going to cost $40B to bail out GM, or what they threw at AIG...

Guess what OBAMANATION? Now that your hero has started the whole world down the BAILOUT path, US taxpayers are going to have to bailout THE WORLD!

McFearless said...

Watching silver again, afraid to get short now, it does seem the fear factor is impacting the metals,and there is no good wave count on silver or gold. We'll see if it can get back to the mid 19's again, if it does, I'll short it up there.

CV said...

Gotta love this:

Papandreou Says Greek ‘Survival’ at Stake in Aid Negotiations

"Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said the nation’s survival was at stake in talks to win a potential $159 billion European Union-led bailout that included budget cuts denounced by unions as “savage.”

Isn't this the same guy who 5 days ago said you'd "lose your shirt" betting against Greece?

CV said...

@McF

The whole mood (with Greece & Europe) is so like the way the "brokers" (Bear, Lehman, stc.) were being handles its eerie...

McFearless said...

Papandreou, people are laughing at this guy right?

C,

yeah, I have deja vu every day, it's just countries now, not banks.

mcHAPPY said...

From what I can gather, 3 simple pieces of legislation would end TBTF and fix a whole host of other issues:

1) SAFE Banking Act

2) The Senate Agriculture Committee on Wednesday approved by 13-8 tough new curbs on financial derivatives, including a ban on most direct bank trading of the tools, which played a big role in exacerbating the 2008 financial crisis.

Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/04/21/1893890/senate-panel-votes-to-curb-derivatives.html#ixzz0maPMwGPr

3) Volker Rule i.e. end proprietary trading.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but this seems simple until you get lobbyists/banks influencing/bribing politicians.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Still with the pictures in inverse order I see. As I said yesterday, I'd lead off with Dolly II, were I you.

...Just my 2 dracmas...

CV said...

@Bruce

Holy Cow(s)!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Yes, CV. Your point about American taxpayers bailout of the world...as soon as the EU said the magic words, "IMF" the American taxpayer,at least those of the blogging variety knew what was up. I don't think Obama is an apologist any longer, he just wants us to be just like the rest of the world. Socialist and broke.

It appears he'll make it before November.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Sorry, that sounded a little pessimistic, didn't it....We (the USA) won't be broke, just the taxpayer...the country,of course, due to creative reporting and accounting techniques, will be increasing GDP by 5% per year. Life is good.

McFearless said...

I was considering last night, it is interesting I continue to see "this could last a lot longer than anyone expects" being put out there not to describe the secular bear market that we've been in since 2000, but to describe the current rally.

Social mood.

McFearless said...

Bruce,

The US is broke, with a currency leveraged 100:1. But to your point, GDP should do just fine, Japan has been able to make GDP look "ok" for the better part of 20 years.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben, I completely agree. What is somewhat interesting, at least to me, is the Nikkei is still at 11k, now 20 years later than the 40k top. Meanwhile our DOW just keeps chugging along. I read the various discussions about how we are or are not Japan, and keep thinking that by 2011 we should know for sure. I was reading a Greek website this morning about the planned rallies and demonstrations planned for the weekend (a very socialist website) and keep coming back to the loss of incentive these people in these various countries seem to have lost as they become further and further encased in socialism. It really does appear to me that the vast portion of the US population is OK with it.

CV said...

What is truly AMAZING to me are the, let's call them, MIDDLE CLASS AMERICANS, who support these policies (and are getting bent over in the process)...

I mean, it seems "pointless" to even work anymore (when the the burden falls HEAVIER on your shoulders to HEAP BENEFITS to the people above you and below you in the "class heirarchy")...

There's NO WAY you're ever going to get rich... So you might as well just join the POOR (because that's where you're going to end up)...

Might as well just stop working and enjoy yourself and let others pick up the tab for your leisure...

call me ahab said...

b22-

I would venture to say that the US does not need to be broke-

reality is you have two opposing sides- one that wants to maintain or increase public spending the other refusing to raise taxes-

so a never ending stalemate- deficits never controlled- borrowing our way to a certain date when we will need massive austerity measures

CV said...

@Bruce

Socialism is fine (as long as you can extend the process of going deeper and deeper into debt)...

The wheels are always "greased" (pun intended)...

But we've already reached that "Uh Oh" moment that upon the first BLINK, the wheels grind to a halt...

The only thing keeping the system going is DEBT...

AmenRa said...

CV

Like Bruce said the majority of Americans don't realize that it's their tax dollars that primarily fund the IMF. Plus the IMF increased US contribution to the SDR. US went from 6.639b to 69.074b. IMF Executive Board Approves Major Expansion of Fund’s Borrowing Arrangements

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

That really does seem to be the "coming" attitude...

CV said...

@ahab

"our way to a certain date when we will need massive austerity measures"

on our way to?

ahab - we're well past that point...

There's no way we can pay the debt that's already accumulated...

We're at the point in the Monopoly game where you have no cash and all your property deeds are mortgaged...

You just landed on BOARDWALK (with 3 hotels)...

Sure, the game can continue... Try to figure out how that's done... Then add to that fact that sooner or later somebody is just going to say "I'm tired of this game" (and fold up the board)...

It's so easy to do when you're not playing with REAL money...

call me ahab said...

and- way off topic- has anyone seen the new HBO show "Treme"-

about New Orleans a few months after the flood- pretty damn good show- watched 3 episodes back to back last night- a lot of NO jazz is played throughout-

and if you have ever been to New Orleans it's fun to pick out all the hangouts that are featured in the show-

has many of the same actors as "The Wire"- which was also a good show

call me ahab said...

CV @ 9:20-

no doubt-

to be more clear- I guess what I am saying is that any type of austerity measure in never mentioned or pursued in government-

that it will take a debt downgrade or some other event to force the USG's hand

CV said...

@Bruce

That really does seem to be the "coming" attitude...

Bruce - I lived in Italy for 12 years and that HAS BEEN the attitude for a lot of years (all the time I was there - for sure)...

The Italians told me it "wasn't always like that", but most of them had finally resolved themselves to accepting SOCIALISM because once you go there (in a democratic society) there's NO GOING BACK...

Ironically, Italians (& other Europeans) were fairly content (as I imagine Americans will be for awhile)...

But you have to understand one thing...

SOCIALISM (in Europe) was basically PAID for by American consumption-ism (&trade)... Americans went into DEBT to achieve those consumption levels... Then they inflated ASSET PRICES to give a false sense of being able to pay for FURTHER consumption (along the same trajectory)...

There has to be a CONSUMER of LAST RESORT...

When there are no consumers, SOCIALISM doesn't work...

Nowadays, there can be NO REAL CONSUMPTION that is not debt based...

That's where we've arrived...

call me ahab said...

and regarding socialism-

I think it is more effective in smaller and very homogeneous societies-

and its sounds great on paper- but if you take away the "juice"- the energy that comes from necessity to "make one's way"- then it doesn't bode well for a very dynamic economy or people-

we are at the point where folks are looking to the government to protect them from a scary world

CV said...

@ahab

I just thought of something...

We've used the word "socialism" about 2 dozen times already in this thread...

If we were doing that at TWSWB "The Wall Streeter Who Blogs" site, ALL the posts would have been eaten and we'd be blacklisted :-)

CV said...

Yet the term fits perfectly into a discussion of THE BIG PICTURE...

AmenRa said...

Damn. Almost had 5 lower 1-min candles on the SPX.

CV said...

@AmenRa (9:36)

You read my mind - I was just going to type that...

CV said...

Also,

Am I the only one? But who else is LAUGHING at watching everyone try to "catch the bottom" on EUR-USD?

It reminds me of trying to "catch the bottom" on the dollar (in September, then October, then December)...

CV said...

Hanging on every word that comes out of

"PapaDINKFEST's" mouth (and losing their shirts in the process)...

call me ahab said...

. . . and this may tie into b22's social mood ideas- this New York Times article-

"Hollywood Desperately Seeking Actors Without Plastic Surgery"

about time- personally- a huge turn off when I see a perfectly beautiful woman get implants- and I see the actresses that do it and I wonder- "what the hell were they thinking"?

Demi Moore comes to mind- as does Tara Reid-

Most times those big balloons just don't fit the body and they are "so fake" as to make the woman less desirable

CV said...

PAPA... AND, ER, "IOU"

call me ahab said...

CV-

I have come to the conclusion that BR is a big lefty-

not a bad thing- per se- but he tries to hide behind the "banner" of a Libertarian-

please

CV said...

@ahab

They're there just in case the airbags on the Toyota don't deploy...

It isn't a BEAUTY thing at all...

CV said...

Libertarian says...

"We don't need no stinkin' banners"!

CV said...

Uh Oh... Leo K (at ZH) doesn't want to hear this...

Spain Pricks Solar Power Bubble as Greek Fate Looms

CV said...

Roubini Says Rising Sovereign Debt Leads to Defaults

No! You think? Get right out of town!

call me ahab said...

I saw that a few of you caught my post last night about the illegal aliens leaving Arizona because of the new laws there-

won't be long before CA and NM enact laws that make it illegal for illegals from AZ to cross into their states- lol

karen said...

CV, I am in stitches!! and now i have to catch up on 40 some comments! Look what some T/A can do.. GS at 151!!! GS knew Madoff was a fraud and never stepped up to the plate.. how is that for a tell.. Today calls for my red dress..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

The thing that is insidious about our current trend...there has been up to this point a "balance" between the central government and the states. Now you see various states giving their rights away...California wants a federal bailout of their fiscal crisis...and like China, once Washington has more control of the state's pursestrings..well, they have more political control...

I look at this as more of a see-saw...the individual on the light end of the see-saw is losing to the obese national government.

When Lee Iacocca went hat in hand to Washington in 1980 for Chrysler there was considerable doubt they would get the money to prevent bankruptcy. Now "We" own GM, Chrysler, Investment Banks, and of course, Fannie and Freddie are deep into the lives of the individual mortgage holders....student loans are now national and not local..And when is the last time the federal government broke up a trust...like AT&T into regional baby bells? In six years people will have to take the health care offered by the national government...it is "just the way things turned out"....

But I'm going hiking this magnificent day...it was a long week in the salt mine.

call me ahab said...

. . .and regarding my 9:43- those two pictures of Heidi Montag-

in the first one she looks like a pretty "next door" girl type-

the second one she looks like a porn star

karen said...

I think this is my first happy hangover.. or maybe the alchemy of saki and a rioja reserva works!

McFearless said...

@ahab,

Heidi Montag used to be cute, she looks terrible now. LC is the only one worth thinking about from that whole mess. LOL, I knew you loved The Hills.

call me ahab said...

"If we were doing that at TWSWB "The Wall Streeter Who Blogs" site, ALL the posts would have been eaten and we'd be blacklisted"-

CV- dude- I am a bit surprised BR still allows me to post there-

so he must have some pretty thick skin-

using your words (from Caddyshack)- "he has that going for him"

I-Man said...

"I got 5000 drachma's lookin for the baddest chick in the club..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD3YnfYtYiw

call me ahab said...

sadly b22-

I didn't know who she was at all- I took her name from the picture-

Hills?

mcHAPPY said...

Denninger's GDP report. I agree the last sentence.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2254-First-Quarter-2010-GDP-Advance.html

Still have not seen any big headline on SAFE. If you have not already checked out, do so. The video is worth 5 mins of your time.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2251-This-REALLY-Gets-Rid-Of-Too-Big-To-Fail.html

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

This is for you from yesterday's discussion of Ms. Merkel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxtJoGdujYo

McFearless said...

"Now you see various states giving their rights away."

Hmm, to follow up on my post about the McCain proposal last night, how about this stuff:

I worry much more about Authoritarianism than I do Socialism. Consider:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIAFHjL3ZMg

Look at the poster in the video and what is written on it.

"encouraging citizens to be suspicious of neighbors who keep to themselves, close their curtains or use cash instead of credit cards. The ad says "If you suspect it, report it"

Princeton University Internet Expert: "the inconvenient truth is that authoritarianism is adapting to the Internet age" (3/4/2010)

Obama extends three provisions of the Patriot Act, allowing government to "obtain wiretaps over multiple communication devices, seize suspects' records without their knowledge....and conduct surveillance of someone deemed suspicious"

then check out Einstein 3.

Google notes that "the number of countries that censor the Internet has grown from a handful eight years ago to more than 40 today"

The EU considers expansive new control measures (ID card register, Internet surveilance systems, satellite surveillance, automated exit-entry border systems operated by machines reading biometrics and risk profiling systems)


These strategies reflect a fearful mood and the desire to control.

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36865397

Anyone else think a bailout won't happen?

McFearless said...

goldman continues to get hit here. how enjoyable.

call me ahab said...

b22-

dude- that infomercial is right out of "1984"- scary shit indeed-

I think the UK is real big on security cameras in public places as well

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben, I agree with your post. But I find myself at times unable to distinguish the line between authoritarianism and socialism. Take Greece for instance. All the power resides in the central government. Look at what will be protested this weekend. Pension ages being moved back by the authority of the government. Increased taxes by the authority of the central government. Smaller pensions. Cuts in services. Although jail time and rounding up the "usual suspects" are not the issues, practically speaking for the vast majority of Greeks, the central government is making unilateral severe changes in how the population will live the next few decades. Sometimes the authority/social lines blur...

I-Man said...

Anyone up for starting a list of protectionism and war trades?

How about:

USO
GLD
SLX
JJC
KOL
IYJ
ITA
XLE

For starters...
I'm thinking about throwing a list of these together and watching them...

CV said...

@Bruce

And when is the last time the federal government broke up a trust...

That is why, CV thinks that the SAFE Banking Act may, perhaps, be a canard...

If you go with the notion that the SSTF was one of the LARGEST "taker downers" of US Treasuries, and realize that now the SSTF has moved to a point where it has to "borrow" to fund it's transfer obligations...

It is possible to make a further extrapolation...

1. Other sovereigns won't take down the debt either (hell, they have their own problems)...

2. The TBTF Banks are going to be the ones left to handle the task (as an arm of the FED)...

So if you break up the banks, how does the Treasury behemoth fund itself?

Quite a conundrum they've made for themselves...

(Click through the links & the story will emerge)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, enough coffee talk. Sorry if I was off-putting this morning. I am wearing shorts today for the first time in a decade, and I hope all the other hikers don't point! (You know whose idea it was.........)

Back tonight if a bear don't eat me....

karen said...

and when GS gets hit, Buffet gets hit! why did they cut that deal with him, again?

CV said...

@I-Man

Where's the 3X TUNGSTEN ETF on that list? :-)

McFearless said...

Some social predictions from old EWI:

From The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999:

"the European Union was consummated following 1,500 years of repeated conflict in the region. this multi-year pageant of apology, concession and agreement and the concurrent wonderful atmosphere of international peace and cooperation are consistent with my Elliot wave case that an uptrend of Grand Supercycle degree is ending"

EWFF 5/2005:

"During the bear market, the independent nations of Europe will rediscover their borders and rekindle the animosities that kept them apart for centuries"

And it should be no surprise to see politicians breaking away from parties here in the states, last June's parliamentary elections were eye opening. In the Netherlands, the Party of Freedom won its first four seats with vows to ban the Koran, scrap the parliament and throw Romania and Bulgaria out of the EU. The UKIP gained for seats with its platform to cede from the union. Even the British National Party (BNP) won two seats with a constitution that is "wholly opposed to any form of racial integration and committed to...restoring the overwhelmingly white makeup of the British population that existed in Britain prior to 1948"

Here we are starting to see this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9ohsvJHkbY

That's it for me about politics today but I'm just pointing out that there is a pattern here.

CV said...

@McHappy

I presented a few problems with SAFE in my (10:28)...

I'm not saying it's a bad idea conceptually... But there there are other problems that may be looming (operationally)...

McFearless said...

"But I find myself at times unable to distinguish the line between authoritarianism and socialism."

Me too Bruce.

I-Man said...

People often forget that Stalin, who killed more people than Hitler, came from the left...

Not the right.

McFearless said...

I,

I got to read the MA paper last night. Man there were some real gems in there, and of course, I especially liked his take on what the Fed "controls"

thanks for the link.

CV said...

@McF
Princeton University Internet Expert: "the inconvenient truth is that authoritarianism is adapting to the Internet age" (3/4/2010)

Revelation 13

1And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.

2And the beast which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion: and the dragon gave him his power, and his seat, and great authority.

3And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast.

4And they worshipped the dragon which gave power unto the beast: and they worshipped the beast, saying, Who is like unto the beast? who is able to make war with him?

5And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.

6And he opened his mouth in blasphemy against God, to blaspheme his name, and his tabernacle, and them that dwell in heaven.

7And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations.

8And all that dwell upon the earth shall worship him, whose names are not written in the book of life of the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world.

9If any man have an ear, let him hear.

10He that leadeth into captivity shall go into captivity: he that killeth with the sword must be killed with the sword. Here is the patience and the faith of the saints.

11And I beheld another beast coming up out of the earth; and he had two horns like a lamb, and he spake as a dragon.

12And he exerciseth all the power of the first beast before him, and causeth the earth and them which dwell therein to worship the first beast, whose deadly wound was healed.

13And he doeth great wonders, so that he maketh fire come down from heaven on the earth in the sight of men,

14And deceiveth them that dwell on the earth by the means of those miracles which he had power to do in the sight of the beast; saying to them that dwell on the earth, that they should make an image to the beast, which had the wound by a sword, and did live.

15And he had power to give life unto the image of the beast, that the image of the beast should both speak, and cause that as many as would not worship the image of the beast should be killed.

16And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:

17And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

18Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.

McFearless said...

re: Stalin:

"Amid rising factionalism in 1929, Stalin attempted a hard-left, super-authoritarian move to collectivize agriculture. The authoritarian/anti-authoritarian conflict took a heavy toll:

Farmers considered this policy a return to serfdom. They resisted and destroyed about half the U.S.S.R.'s livestock - some 55 million horses and cows - whereupon Stalin responded by sending about a million families into exile. This conflict, and a catastrophic decline in grain production, exacerbated the famine of 1932-1933 that killed between five and 10 million people"
From Global Market Perspective, "A Socionomic Study of Russia" 11/2007.

McFearless said...

ok, we are probably scaring Karen.

BZQ catching a little bounce here.

CV said...

@karen

keep your eye on the prize

GS below $160 (at $146)

CV said...

Hell, they're probably "shorting" their own stock (so they can take it private)...

Nic said...

GS is getting slammed. Its helping gold.
FBI investigating MEE - Massey Energy

call me ahab said...

it's that time-

gotta roll- all have a W U N D E R B A R day!

Will try to check in in the PM!

Remember- if you get a chance watch Treme on HBO-

later

karen said...

Yes, you are definitely scaring me! I probably should review last night's thread.. who was saying to buy GS the other day? Art Cashin?

CV said...

Headlines:

"MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER - No new offshore drilling will be authorized until authorities learn what caused the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig, an aide to President Barack Obama said Friday as oil oozed ashore in Louisiana."

"Obama recently lifted a drilling moratorium for many offshore areas, including the Atlantic and Gulf areas."

HEADLINES FROM THE YEAR 2012
"Obama rescinds BAILOUTS retroactive to 2009"

"Obama changes his mind after seeing the after-effects of money printing - He instructs all those to REPAY $5 trillion to the US Treasury (to repair the error)"

CV said...

@karen

No... It was Dick Bove... ($200)

McFearless said...

yeah, bove.

AmenRa said...

HAHAHA http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/Economist%20Cover.jpg

CV said...

Top 3 reasons for voting for Obama in 2012...

1. "He's SO SMART"
2. He'll work to break the powerful lobbies in Washington
3. He'll pay your gas and mortgage!

AmenRa said...

Bove. He who will not do analyst expectations on live tv.

CV said...

@Amen

I love the smell of NAPALM in the morning!

karen said...

Is that cover real??? I'll get mine in today's mail.. I swear Art Cashin said to buy GS somewhere.. Jeff will remember. I know Bove said so and gave the price target.. hope he bot 1000s of shares..

McFearless said...

check out RIG since 4/20.

CV said...

@karen

I swear... I bet GS is willing to "short" it's own stock down to zero (holding those winnings in a separate holding account)...

Then they come back and announce they're BUYING back all the outstanding common and take it PRIVATE (with the money they made "shorting")...

Anonymous said...

I hope they don't put Lord Browne of Madingley in that cell at "Club Fed." He'd go insane.

Nic said...

FX rumour about fed re-introducing swap lines has risk appetite plunging.
From MrTopStep re indices:
"being around the floors for over 30 years I can honestly say I have never seen anything like the current price action / up move"

karen said...

Even my son with his AAPL to a trillion mentality said to me yesterday, "Isn't it odd that the market is doing so well with the uncertainty of financial regulatory actions?" And, all I can think is that the market believes QE and ZIRP for EVER.

McFearless said...

There is no way in hell GS is going to short it's own stock right now. come on guys, these are smart criminals.

what happens with those shares it out of their hands now.

Goldman's epic decline has only just begun.

Nic said...

Can you hear the liquidity going down the plug? Fed posts contract for repo of mm funds:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3025140120100430

karen said...

0MG!! CSTR, my son's pick is up 8 pts! i need to give him all my $$$..

Nic said...

I meant reverse repo obviously :)

CV said...

@McF

"I challenge you to a battle of wits" :-)

From that Princess Bride YOUTUBE clip...

CV said...

@Nic (11:21)

You mean I can't buy Treasuries AND stocks anymore with the same money?

Darn!

McFearless said...

C,

I love that movie, never gets old and young Kevin Arnold is in it (Fred Savage)

Hmm, from Nic's link, financial reform as well as reverse repos. All deflationary. The ultimate act of sentiment is to "take it away", the liquidity that is.

McFearless said...

And like the movie, Lloyd will probably laugh right up until they fall down.

CV said...

Bonfire of the Vanities

CV said...

I had to laugh... ZH had its thread up on the Goldman Probe and here was the first comment from the ZH readers...

by Tart
on Fri, 04/30/2010 - 04:54
#325057


Harry Wanger will think this is bullish.

I-Man said...

Harry is a rare bird.

AmenRa said...

The more Obama is on tv the more I need to read the late editions. I have to find out what they are trying to divert my attention from.

I-Man said...

28.70 weekly close is the number I'm watching for SPXU.

Would you mind 3LB-ing that one for me, Jah Ra?

McFearless said...

Why do otherwise smart people think the GDP is anything but smoke and mirrors?

We truly ignore everything about Japan don't we. They had GDP growth despite a deflationary collapse. GDP only measures money that is spent, not where the source of the spending comes from. The Japanese kept thinking things were getting better when they looked at GDP but we should know better, GDP isn't actually a measure of economic performance.

"printing" might hold up GDP, but it can't hold up assets and save the economy.

and for anyone that says "we aren't Japan" yes, that's true, they were in a lot better shape to deal with deflation than we are.....

CV said...

@MCF (GDP)

I'm thinking about posting a comment over at TWSWB's site on his GDP thread...

Has he clearly lost his mind trying to justify that print...

I just don't have the energy to look up my password...

Maybe if I have a few beers for lunch I'll get my groove on...

AmenRa said...

re: GS

low= 47.41
fibo 2.058= 144.98 (1st target)
monthly 3LB mid= 131.67 (2nd target)
fibo 1.618= 124.12 (3rd target)

Closing beneath one should see GS trade down to the next.

McFearless said...

no worries C, the consumer is back.

let Barry go, he 'can't be wrong'

CV said...

@McF

Well either TWSWB is wrong...

or KD is wrong...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2254-First-Quarter-2010-GDP-Advance.html

CV said...

all TWSWB had to say was...

TWSTWB Says:
April 30th, 2010 at 8:35 am
Must have been all of those delinquent homeowner/welfare queens . . .

• Are Defaults Really Driving Retail Spending?

• More on Mortgage Delinquencies & Retail Spending

Maybe not . . .

CV said...

very "in depth" analysis...

CV said...

Must be doing too much Wall Streeting these days & doesn't have much time for blogging...

karen said...

bzq made it a penny lower than yesterday.. i'm not seeing risk off anywhere, NIC.. altho, srs isn't sinking to new lows, thank goodness.

there is some trick to those consumer spending numbers.. i just don't know what it is yet..

AmenRa said...

I-Man

SPXU
weekly 3LB low close= 26.50
weekly 3LB mid= 28.39
weekly 3LB rev= 30.28
trend=down

monthly 3LB low close= 30.05
monthly 3LB mid= 34.39
monthly 3LB rev= 38.72
trend=down

I-Man said...

Thx, Ra...

I like that my weekly close buy signal is above the mid.

That would be a good stop level for the trade also, 28.39.

CV said...

@karen

"there is some trick to those consumer spending numbers.. i just don't know what it is yet.."

We're bound to find out fairly soon as the EXTENDED UNEMPLOYMENT benefits start to run out...

Auto sales were up big...

Car companies, in their desperation to sell ANYTHING, basically let you drive out with a "no doc" loan (you can buy any car with pretty poor credit)...

Maybe people were buying cars expecting to LIVE IN them... It's hard to repossess when you're a homeless nomad...

karen said...

From TBP/TWSWB--
Jojo Says:
April 30th, 2010 at 11:42 am
No one ever really seems to call[s] attention to the fact that the GDP number is annualized by multiplying the quarter number by 4 (i.e. .8% Q1 growth * 4). I guess 3.2% looks better than 0.8% “growth”.

CV said...

@karen

That's all well and good, but it utterly dismisses the fact that with current obligations by the Federal Government we need 11% (REAL GDP - not GDP which is brought forward by "stimulus") to be able to balance the budget by 2020...

And that would be 11% consistent over the next 10 years (without ANY interruption)...

Otherwise, it's like sitting at your lemonade stand and paying yourself to drink your product and marveling at the loose change you have in your cash box...

Nic said...

I love this TWSWB moniker ... hehe

Nic said...

Risk off in FX Karen, but its whippy as hell and could just be end of month rebalancing when the dogs of FX get bought up

CV said...

@Nic

It's easy... It'll soon become a "secret society" that only a few people here understand...

Nic said...

I tend to lean towards believing KD. I don't think he is a populist or gives a rats a** what people think of him.

karen said...

let me foolishly point out the rh&s in up for the month of april.. you can easily see it on the daily.. right shoulder low now in.. monday could be magical for the bears : )

DL said...

CV,

Holy Cow...


...funny stuff up above there.

CV said...

@Nic

I don't like to just "toss around" SKY IS FALLING type comments on a whim...

But I "really" have this strange sense (have for a few days now)... That something might make a BIG MOVE over this weekend...

That something is "probably" Greece...

It's too quiet right now (relatively speaking)...

Nic said...

Monday bank holiday in Japan, China and UK

DL said...

B/T @ 8:48

"Obama ...just wants us to be just like the rest of the world. Socialist and broke"

* * * * * * * * *

That about sums it up.

But remember also, Bruce, taxes on corporations aren't really taxes. It's just "magic money".

I-Man said...

What better time for a bailout announcement?

I remember Sept/Oct 2008... I bought that dip.

Any spike early next week... should be sold aggressively. It wont be an easy trade to make, if history is a guide.

I-Man said...

Karen, watching CEF?

Its ramping up...

I-Man said...

And how are you handling that one tax wise? Arent gains taxed at income for that fund?

mcHAPPY said...

Looking around for news on banking amendments and there is not much MSM news out there.

"Senators Jeff Merkley and Carl Levin will introduce their amendment, essentially the Volcker rule, which would ban proprietary trading among commercial banks. They’ll hold a press conference on the amendment later today."

Lincoln's derivatives bill doesn't look too healthy:

"Senator Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican and member of the banking committee, said he wanted to eliminate that clause.

“What is the point of doing that?” he told reporters yesterday. “All it does is lower the amount of capital available in America for actual lending.”

Lincoln’s provision is “toast” because it “will be altered tremendously before a bill is passed,” Corker said.

So Democrats have strengthening amendments and Republicans have weakening amendments. They should be debated and voted on in a majority-vote process in the light of day."

http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/04/29/60-vote-threshold-will-not-be-needed-on-all-finreg-amendments/

karen said...

i meant uup, of course.. maybe a nice, orderly, stroll to the exits today..

my shipper is making a good move on crude.. i guess. earnings still too far out to be a factor. (DHT operates a fleet of oil tankers.)

and my little canadian miner is up sweetly on gold.. oh, and copper having a tiny bounce.

DL said...

All I've got to say about the criminal investigation of GS is, there's got to be other crooks somewhere else in the financial sector. Maybe they should start by looking at AIG, or the Lehman executives.

(Note to mention the NY Fed, and the U.S. Treasury).

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

It is too quiet. Monday is going to bring a huge move. The $64 billion dollar question is which way?

CV said...

@I-Man

Meanwhile...SPX is "slope of hoping"

karen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
CV said...

@DL

Let's put it this way...

After all this time... Mozillo & Fuld are still walking around the streets...

What do they think they're going to accomplish with GS?

Amen was RIGHT earlier...

This is DIVERSIONARY... Spend your time looking for the thing they "DON'T WANT YOU TO SEE" now...

karen said...

CV, remember three peaks and a domed top?

CV said...

@DL

As in... Holy Cow! (That Grass Needs Mowing)

CV said...

@karen

3P&ADH... Sure do...

I-Man said...

I sense that any large move on Monday will be risk ON...

And that the force of that move will be exascerbated by the other markets being closed.

Maybe thats our 1230 print.

mcHAPPY said...

This is the most thorough article I could find on financial reform:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/safer/ending-interconnectedness_b_555625.html

What ticks me off is the last couple of lines:

"Building on existing law...."

Many of the existing laws have not been followed or enforced and that has caused the problems in the financial sector as much as anything. A law is useless if not enforced.

DL said...

Fortune favors the bold.

(And I would add, so does bankruptcy).

Nic said...

Haha - Just hung up the phone with my Greek Realtor. Don't you worry about Greece he said, They have Europe to save them. He just got back last week. Tavernas are full, beaches are full, you can't park anywhere. He said the only thing they are worried about is they may have to pay some taxes.

karen said...

Funny, Nic!

I, are you crazy? no 1230.. Nic already said the top was in..

karen said...

That Holy Cow poster is actually repulsive..

CV said...

@McHappy (on financial reform)

Keep in mind:

- The Declaration of Independence was signed in 1776

- The Revolutionary War timeline: (1775 - 1783)

- The Constitution (Bill of Rights) was written in 1787

What I'm trying to say is that it seems USELESS, to CV, to talk about "financial reform"... (that would be like the Colonies sitting down at a table with King George back in 1775 and hacking out a "reform agreement"...

The Declaration of Independence states:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

No reform is likely to be made until a state of DESPOTISM is reached... And that is usually accompanied by civil unrest...

CV said...

@karen

Bruce insisted! :-)

DL said...

Karen @ 12:48

I suspect you're holding the minority view here.

Nic said...

She is not alone tho

I-Man said...

You playing for a bounce at 1193 DL?

spoonman said...

I'm with you, Karen. It's all about proportion.

DL said...

I-Man

Buying at $SPX 1193 would probably be a reasonable bet.

CV said...

@karen @Nic

Frankly, I agree with you both (and understand your views)...

But sometimes "eggs have to be broken" in the pursuit of putting the finishing touches on a journalistic piece...

One has to be "edgy" sometimes...

Not that my goal is to be Howard Stern... But he probably has a larger audience than Mr. Rogers ever did...

DL said...

CV

"Not that my goal is to be Howard Stern"

And that picture of yours reminds me of Alice Cooper.

spoonman said...

And, to be fair, the poster DOES make you say, "Holy cow!". Even if not in a good way.

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY finds it artistic and therefore worthy of long periods of staring at different angles to form an opinion.

CV said...

@karen @Nic

You should see the stuff that DOESN'T end up making the cut for the threads...

The DVD "The Making of MORNING AUDIBLES" will be available for Christmas :-)

mcHAPPY said...

DL,

Here is your chance to buy at 1193.

CV said...

@DL

School's OUT

I-Man said...

AMBGW DVD's on sale NOW!!!

"Apocalyptic Market Blogs Gone Wild"

DL said...

McHappy @ 1:03

And maybe it goes all the way down to 1180. The question is, how long before there's a gain to be had.

CV said...

@I-Man

FWIW - I ain't buying it (1193)...

1194.18 is the .021 FIBO from 1219.80...

We've been under that TWICE now...

Nic's right... TOP IN for mow...

CV said...

@I-Man

Apocalypse What?

This is SURVIVOR Capital...

There are 2 sides to Armageddon brah! :-)

mcHAPPY said...

@DL

Slope of hope? lol

DL said...

McHappy,

I assume you're 100% short right here?

And that you're going to cover next week?

McFearless said...

A bullish Greek Realtor....so many jokes...so little time.

DL,

dick fuld i think, they will go after him.

I-Man said...

Karen...

Dont make me cry in my oatmeal...

Crazy?

I'm just trying to think like my enemy... There's no such thing as crazy in this tape, unless you're Ken Fisher.

DL said...

McF @ 1:12

Yes, I do hope that they "Dick" Fuld.

I-Man said...

Now what would really frustrate the hell out of those looking to short?
.
.
.

Weekly close at or slightly above 1205 is something I'm watching.

If this is "the move" then it wont be easy to enter... thats all I'm saying.

McFearless said...

just throwing out that if we impulse down from here it'll look like we had a first, a second retrace and this is wave 3 right now. P3 won't be called that right when it starts.....

CV said...

You Know...

The more one thinks about it... The more this all makes sense...

The S&P has been basically churning sideways for the last 19 trading sessions (within that box)...

That's A LOT longer than the boxes around the other peaks... (as they tended to hang at a top for a few days - break down violently, then recover violently)...

So it makes sense that if we're NEAR a MAJOR TOP, that some lines are going to be painted here for MORE than just a couple of trading sessions...

As if to say... THIS LINE YOU DO NOT PASS in the future...

anyway, it's a theory...

mcHAPPY said...

I am 100% short... Actually 200%.

Have been short FXP since 38.40 and FAZ since $12 on April 16. FAZ has been a roller coaster and came with 2 cents of getting stopped out. That beats the casino anyday.

We'll have to see how it goes but I don't see covering/selling next week.

mcHAPPY said...

@DL

Oh yes and nearly got stopped yesterday but made it above by 9 cents.

DL said...

McHappy,

If you're really 100% invested in FAZ, then my hat's off to you for having conviction.

I-Man said...

Anyone just catch a glimpse of that EURUSD move?

mcHAPPY said...

@DL

Like I said, it has been a roller coaster but social mood is definitely shifting against bankers. In hindsight I should have sold out at 12.90's/bought back in 11's and jumped the gun on buying but I think in a few weeks/months these ETF's will be exponential.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I AM THE ULTIMATE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR

And with that I expect to get stopped out by the end of the day - ha. After my experiences with oil I can't help but laugh at myself.

DL said...

McHappy,

I would ask you though, what do you think about the idea of shorting QQQQ, rather than going long FAZ...?

(Personally, I'd rather short the Q's, given those two choices).

mcHAPPY said...

The way I look at things if you really believe there is going to be a major downturn (i.e. P3) the things to short are:

Financials
China/EM
Small Cap
Tech
Real Estate

The only problem with the Q's and TZA for me is it is hard to guage a shift in sentiment in tech. It is obvious there is a change in banks and it is obvious China is about to overheat.

Real estate is like oil for me - too irrational and too much intervention. I nearly went in on SRS but went FAZ instead because there are REIT's in there.

mcHAPPY said...

*....shift in sentiment in tech AND SMALL CAP."

DL said...

McHappy,

I don't see a P3 happening in 2010, but if there's a 10% correction, one could make a lot of money on that if properly positioned.

Mannwich said...

Wow, looks like I missed some things this morning. Was at a funeral for one of my wife's former colleagues, who passed suddenly at 59 years old.

DL said...

Mannwich,

C.O.D. ??

Nic said...

I-Man its whippy as all heck today.

mcHAPPY said...

@DL

We'll see. We are approaching a cross roads soon enough. I believe a 10% correction will take us out of all trend channels from March '09 and put us squarely back in the trend channel from Oct. 07.

AmenRa said...

SPX barely crossed the weekly 3LB mid of 1191.94 before turning back up. Damn.

DL said...

Nic,

You're allowed to say "hell" here.

Mannwich said...

@DL: The official word was a "heart attack". Nice guy. I didn't know him that well but he was a funny dude.

CV said...

"heckfire" will do...

I-Man said...

If we're going to "impulse" lower today B22, then it should happen here.

karen said...

Jeff, did Cashin say to buy GS (in addition to Bove?) that was in my head from somewhere..

I-Man said...

If not, then 1205 by the close.

karen said...

i still think this orderly walk to the exists with accelerate shortly.. look at TBT, btw..

CV said...

@manny

...& taxes :-(

Mannwich said...

@karen: I don't think so. Most are now lowering their targets on GS (of course), but one (I forget his name) is keeping his target at 203.

Mannwich said...

No kidding, cv. Kind of jarring to have someone you know pass away like that out of the blue.

I-Man said...

Wanna bet a bottle of Reposado on that?

CV said...

@karen

I'm kind of in your camp there...

JNK this morning, missed by a penny going to a new high...

Kind of curious...

Mannwich said...

This one's a lot harder for my wife. Worked closely with him nearly every day for almost two years.

DL said...

If GS got down to $130 in the next month or two, it would be worth buying, at least for a "buy 'n hold" type.

CV said...

Come on everybody!

SELL IM MAY & GO AWAY (let's get on with it)...

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