A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
SPXBullish short day. Closed back above the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89. Midpoint still below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 21 SMA and failed. Also it's still below the weekly 3LB mid of 1191.94 (still have 2 more days). No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.
DXYHigh wave doji day (major volatility). Ignored the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Closed above the 233 SMA on the weekly chart at 81.47. New high on daily 3LB with reversal still 80.19.
VIXBearish harami day (plus shadows within previous candle body). Still above the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Tested the 0.0% fibo ext and failed. Tested 144 SMA and passed. Midpoint back above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.
GOLDBullish short day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. Closed back above the 50.0% fibo ext. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1161.10.
SLVBullish spinning top day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Closed back above 21 SMA. 3 days of indecision (what are they waiting for?). No daily 3LB changes.
10YR YIELDBullish day. Closed back above the 55 & 89 SMA. Closed above the 14.6% fibo ext (barely). No daily 3LB changes.
103 comments:
I really enjoyed Lloyd in this scene
McF
"They were both poisoned." LMAO.
You guys have to read the new Armstrong, "The Paradox of Solution"... its really good stuff on the Fed, money supply, the buffoonery of the SEC, and how stupid it is to believe that the Fed controls interest rates.
Right up your alley, Ben... its almost a mirror of the "what is money" convo we had going awhile back.
http://www.usafreecall.com/The-Paradox-of-Solution-4-18-10.pdf
I know Ra, I'm surprised it wasnt used as grounds to launch a full scale invasion of Europe.
McFearless, I love it!
Last fall I had an idea for a sitcom called "Jamie & Lloyd." Think "The Simple Life" meets "The Odd Couple." Two crooked banking CEOs barely avoid the slammer, but are stripped of their ill-gotten riches and barred from ever working in finance again. Personalities clash and hilarity ensues as the two roommates bungle a series of menial jobs.
IKB is the German bank which the SEC claims was too stupid to understand anything about the CDO’s they were investing in.
Turns out that the former head of the bank is now on trial for stock-market manipulation and breach of trust.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5359891,00.html
DL, what difference does it make whether IKB was smart enough to understand the CDO deal? The point is that Goldman allegedly withheld material information that any buyer would have expected to be disclosed during such a deal. That's all the SEC needs to prove to make their case.
SC,
If a woman buys a hot cup of coffee from McDonald’s, and she spills it, burning herself in the process, should she be able to sue McDonald’s for failing to disclose that the coffee was hot?
If a guy buys a kitchen knife from a store, and cuts himself on it, should he be able to sue the company for failing to disclose that the knife is sharp?
Not everything has to be disclosed. The managers at IKB had claimed to its investors that they were experts in evaluating the value of mortgages. Given their expertise, they should have understood a few basic concepts about mortgage-backed CDO’s.
From Anonymous Monetarist on the SEC-GS suit:
http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2010/04/trojan-hoaxin-show-trial-boastin-and.html
Karen @ 6:19
Good article.
Following is a key point that Goldman-bashers seem unwilling to admit:
“Both the long and short investors were given the opportunity to select the specific collateral to which they were seeking exposure and mutually agreed on the CDO portfolio”
* * * * * * *
On a sleaziness scale of 0 to 10, with “10” being pure metaphysical sleaze, I’d rate this a 2.
Fade the Fed on Housing
The Market Setup is Bullish
@Mel
(other thread)
Thanks for the "shout out"... :-)
I'm sorry I couldn't reply right away...
Wednesdays I have to "check out early" (and today I bolted around 3:20)... I'm just getting back now, and literally am catching up with the entire blog (and comments) and caught your post...
Seals & Crofts had some seriously mellow jams...
It's funny because as I looked on YOU TUBE, I could hardly find any live real stuff from them (instead, just a bunch of covers)... I went through one or two of them and, to me, they weren't up to par...
You ought to put an ENSEMBLE piece up to fill that void!
Anyway, post at will my friend...
We talk about a lot of things here...
Mostly trading... but the markets are so nutty these days, we need lots of DIFFERENT things to keep the sanity...
Peace!...CV
@Mel
I'm just catching up with the tail end of that last thread...
Cool stuff... Lotta stuff I NEVER KNEW...
I knew I-Man's talents (but other stuff is coming out)...
Sounds like we have some great potential for some musical weekend threads...
This weekend I'm going a different direction in that it's KENTUCKY DERBY weekend... H-O-W-E-V-E-R... If you have any "country bluegrass" roots to go along with your experiences it could be worked into the theme...
We have time, so let's flesh it out...
CV's focus is going to be on handicapping the horses...
@McF (5:02)
LMAO!
@DL
See what ensues when I put up a SHRINE TO YOUR HERO?
Hilarity ensues!
I hereby dub thee... "Sir DL" (you are allowed to change your handle at will to reflect this)...
From here on out, I will refer to thee as "Sir DL"...
Karen
Thanks for the links. They're right about down volume being higher on the day the SEC announces its case against GS than the GS hearings. Not sure if that makes it bullish. The SPX closed above its 1.764 fibo (1190.89) which puts the 1218.63 (the 1.8276 fibo) back into play. It still has weakness because it closed below the weekly 3LB mid (1191.94).
@CV
Thanks...I really appreciate it...as you prolly know mr. renaissance man...Sony didn't release portable cams and Betamax to the general public until '75...and way too pics were taken with early polaroid...the results didn't stand the test of time...and over 35 years, the stuff that did "last", tended to disappear over the course of rather peripatetic lives...not to mention, of course, half my friends from those days are now pushing up daisies...ironically including Johnny Stevenson...who wrote "Rock n Roll Heaven" for the Righteous Brothers.
Mel
"If a woman buys a hot cup of coffee from McDonald’s, and she spills it, burning herself in the process, should she be able to sue McDonald’s for failing to disclose that the coffee was hot?"
Would the customer have refused the coffee if McDonald's had disclosed that the coffee was hot? No, because coffee is supposed to be hot.
"If a guy buys a kitchen knife from a store, and cuts himself on it, should he be able to sue the company for failing to disclose that the knife is sharp?"
Would the customer have refused the knife if the store had disclosed that it was sharp? No, because knives are supposed to be sharp.
Now, do you honestly expect me to believe that, had GS disclosed Paulson's involvement in the CDO deal, IKB would have merely shrugged their shoulders and gone ahead with the transaction? Because unless that's what you're arguing, that information was material, and it should have been disclosed.
@karen (6:35)
I find it hard to digest a "SETUP MONSTER" who is only looking at 10 days of wave trading...
While I'm not using this as a metaphorical reference, his "waves", to me, (in a constricted timeframe), seem to be like a canoeist that's battling eddy per eddy on the rocks and currents 200 meters before NIAGRA FALLS...
Meaning?
- the 61.8% retrace barrier at 1229
- The 144SMA MONTHLY
- The Lehman barrier
Sure, this could EASILY go to 1230 (Hell, CV even penned "1235" as the HIGH for 2010 back in December when Andy T put up the POLL)...
But there are different "connotations" when someone reads the sound byte "THE MARKET SETUP IS BULLISH"...
How long?
Dow 36,000?
Infinity?
Johnny Hour tomorrow?
Come on man! :-)
@Mel
Just stay close to the campfire my friend and make your voice heard! :-)
"Stocks End Higher as Fed Holds Rates Steady"- CNBC
stupid headline of the day
@Amen
Spill it brother...
Friday is EOM, and EOW, and there are 3lb's in play...
Got a call?
I'm not asking you to HOLD YOU TO IT... Just what you think "gun to your head"...
Disclosure: CV is NOT TRADING it either way...
I'm positioned (actually, weirdly, I'm hedged...)... Just wondering what's on your dome?
and Roubini seems to be reveling in his re-found Dr Doom persona now that he has all but called for the end of the "Euro Zone"-
if I was Germany- I'd say no thanks and issue a new Deutsch Mark
@ahab
I didn't tell you this morning before you left (because I didn't see it until way later)...
Your post on BR's OPEN THREAD last night was "perfect"... :-)
As a matter of fact... From here on out... my reference to TBP is as follows... TWSWB "The Wall Streeter Who Blogs"...
Take it or leave it! :-)
AR, I actually do try to keep an open mind; but i do not drink kool-aid. I remember saying to a friend of mine that works for MS during the height of the fiasco., "the Fed can save the banks, but they can't save RE." (so far they are getting the last laugh!) I couldn't at the time envision/comprehend the ways and lengths they (and the banks) would go to backstop the fall. Oh, and laughingly, people are clamoring for EM? Our corruption is only outdone by them..
@ahab
The Euro is now getting quite a collection of BEARS...
I've heard 3 "biggies" now call for ALL TIME LOWS eventually...
- Gartman
- I think, KASS
- and there was someone today I read (I forget who)
Anyway... CV is actually in their camp... But OVER TIME, not right away...
Hell, over there it takes 3 months of he said/she said just to get effin Greece resolved...
It make take a CENTURY to wipe out the Euro for petes sake!
CV-
yeah- I think BR throws those threads out to get ideas- but who knows-
re the Euro- why would Germany want to stay in- they are the Euro- w/o them it is nothing- the German citizens couldn't care less about Greece or Portugal or Spain
. . .and not too far fetched in my mind for Germany to look at the debt problems of their southern neighbors and just say-
hey man- there's nothing we can do- sorry- simply beyond our control- the populace says nein
@ahab
It's not in the GERMAN character to "give a shizz" about anyone but their own tribe...
This goes clear back to the VISIGOTHS dude...
You should know...
and re Greece- do you think they will agree to stringent austerity measures-
no way- they'll keep their hand out and continue on with their lives
CV @ 8:33-
that's why I don't get it-
what's in it for Germany?
if folks are under the impression the the EU will become a country- not sure if that is dream or not-
but- no way- no how
"Subsidies don’t work, and that is what the loans to Greece are. The Greeks will just suck them in, and continue their unruly fracas over who gets what. Far better to let Greece fail, and scare marginal nations to clean up their acts."
http://alephblog.com/2010/04/28/the-lack-of-cultural-agreement-roars-the-eurozone-mews/
geez Karen- what was I just freakin' sayin'(-:!
these financial "blogsperts" got nothing on Ahab!
@ahab
Look... I'm not trying to be an EXPERT here... I'm NOT!
But... I lived in Italy for 12 years... I spent the 10 years before that living out of a suitcase traveling around the globe in over 45 countries...
Not as a soldier! Not as a tourist!
Working... mixing it up with the people... Not in the HOTELS... In the back streets...
Let's say I know "a pinch" (nothing more)...
THE WORLD IS TRIBAL... That's the way it is...
It's amazing to me that it's coalesced into the governments & structures that it has for the past 60 years... But THAT'S AN ANOMALITY - IMO...
So... My prediction in a "return to norm" will be along the lines of REGRESSION to tribal instincts...
That isolates Germans from ANY other culture in Europe...
Hell... when I lived in Italy, most of the Italians themselves were in favor of breaking up Italy into 3 countries!
It's all over the place over there...
- The "Slavic" Republics
- Croatia/Bosnia/Serbs
Nominate who you want... it's all the same...
It gets down to FEUDAL CITIES for crying out loud!
CV
The SPX closed just below the weekly 3LB mid so the sentiment is trying to change (still have 2 more days). But it did close above the 1.764 fibo (using low of 666.79) of 1190.89. My mind is doji.
CV, you frighten me a bit because I actually think you are prescient.. otherwise, i probably wouldn't be hanging out here, lol.
@karen
You can do all the SCARING you want...
But it doesn't ever make ANYONE "clean up their act"...
We're getting a firsthand lesson here about "conceptual homogeno-geo-econonomico-psycho-alpha-disco-bio-aqua-do-loop"... VS... REALITY!
Footnote: Bet your money on REALITY winning ;-)
CV-
100% agreed w/ that thought-
I don't think there is one nation on this planet- outside of maybe Bhutan- that isn't always a moment away from busting at the seams-
Canada, United States, Russia, Spain- etc, etc, etc
but, darn, i do love the euro.. makes traveling so much easier.. as B in T has claimed, we are devolving.. and where has he been? I know where LB is now.
@karen
"prescient"... Please define... (Note: I know the DEFINITION of the word - I need to understand your context)...
I'm half serious here... I can flip back from serious to JOKING very easily so don't get distracted...
If it's a SERIOUS question, I always treat it seriously... JK (now you don't know WHAT to think)... :-)
@Amen
DOJI it is then...
I suppose I could say the same... (good answer)
ahab, i've a mind to read you some rhymes..
Euro puts with a parity strike are very cheap IMO.
. . .and remember- nation-states are a recent phenomena- w/ Germany being one of the last European nation-states to be formed-
doesn't mean that is the "permanent" structure by any means
karen-
as long as Nantucket is in there I'm game(-:!!
Whoa! Sugar down 7% for the week. May even break through its 233 SMA.
@ahab (8:59)
EXACTLY... Just the opposite IMO...
Basically, a "ok I'll accept this as my sentence for getting my ass kicked... I'll bide my time... hone my skills... until I DEFEAT all you bastards next time when you're fat & bored" ATTITUDE...
There's NO SUCH THING as a "nation state"...
Siena is still fighting Firenze (as far as anybody is concerned)...
LB "should" be here... I bet he'd acknowledge that BLOOD concept on the "Isles" as well...
@ahab (9:00)
yellow card!
Ahab! I love it.. that was fantastic!! (except for the lack of sex.)
@karen (8:54)
I understand the "convenience" of the EURO (profoundly)...
But JEEZ I loved it better when I was exchanging DOLLARS for LIRA...
Made me a friggin' KING when I lived there!
@Ahab, German and French banks have skin in the game? - Reason why Greece and other member PIIGS are being saved?
@ahab
on the subject of NANTUCKET...
Obama administration OKs first U.S. offshore wind farm
http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20100428/sc_mcclatchy/3490649
BOOYAH!
That ought to generate enough VOLTS to charge up a "AAA" battery!
... well, at least it's a START... Maybe they could put the turbines on top of an oil rig?
anon-
good point- understood- doesn't mean the German people agree however-
Karen-
you crack me up(-:!!
CV, not to ignore your question.. you are a forward thinker.
CV @ 8:48
I say, let's break the U.S. up into two countries:
the blue states and red states
and the blue states can keep most of the debt since they seem to love it so much.
CV @ 9:11
And a lawsuit has already been filed.
http://www.necn.com/04/28/10/Cape-Wind-lawsuits-announced-/landing.html?blockID=225047&feedID=4215
Can't have drilling, can't have nuclear, and it appears, can't have wind power either.
ahab, i try!
@karen
question answered... THANK YOU
@"Sir DL"
Crazily - it wouldn't WORK here (at least for now)...
See? Europe & MOST OTHER PLACES "started out" FEUDAL...
Here... What WE ALL KNOW "initiated" homogenous... (although the NATIVE AMERICAN TRIBES would beg to differ)...
So... we'd need to become COMPLETELY DISASSEMBLED first...
- Then come the "organizations"
- Then come the FEUDAL STATES
One can't PREARRANGE that type of eco-system...
It has to evolve on its own...
It'll take CENTURIES to evolve...
@"Sir DL" (9:26)
I say we all become Amish! dammit!
@karen
How about it "California Cutie"?... AMISH...
Think you could handle the shoes? :-)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_N1gwW4Bs9M0/Se0clVY3iwI/AAAAAAAAAVA/Qk936q_0_gs/s400/100_0647.JPG
alright-
DL- as I tell my kids- West Virginia- is really Virginia- and sadly two of the counties seceded from Virginia after the civil war- you know- where CV lives- opting to go to the winning side-
decided by the Supreme Court I believe-
so maybe one day Virginia will reconquer what is hers-
that's how far I would take it the idea of sovereignty-
like Robert E Lee said- he was a Virginian first- American second
CV,
"so maybe one day Virginia will reconquer what is hers"
You gonna take that from ahab?
@ahab
CAPS lost to CANADIENS :-(... Damn!
@"Sir DL"
They'd have to RETAKE Harpers Ferry...
If you know your history... Easier SAID than DONE...
Whose coming out there to do it?
Some band from TYSON'S CORNER? Good Luck!
DL-
you miss my point-
I am just saying that boundary lines are all make believe-
they work for a while- until they don't-
my kids laugh at me as I say- Virginia should retake West Virginia-
a joke obviously- but my point is boundary lines are always temporary
CV-
it was their's to win- I had a feeling come 7th game they would lose
@ahab
all the RUSSIANS on the squad lost all their will after the Olympics...
They "mailed it in"...
@ahab
My property taxes are LOW (and I like them that way)...
All VIRGINIA would do would be to come in and raise them to pay for a bunch of STARBUCKS coffee SWIRLING ass punks! (and they're BMW's they cruise around the MAIN roads with)...
Ahab @ 9:50
“I am just saying that boundary lines are all make-believe”.
* * * * * * *
My point is that the majority of residents of certain states tend to think alike on certain economic issues. Take the People’s Republic of Massachusetts, for example. The Californians have similar views, along with New Yorkers, and Oregonians.
You’ve got states like Ohio and Michigan that hate capital and love labor unions.
You’ve got states like TX and VA where people don’t think that all corporations are bad.
So maybe we’d be better off if we broke up into 2 or 3 countries. There’d be much more agreement among the people.
Now this video in the article
that is hilarious.
CV-
dude- you are to acclimated to Northern VA- DC metro-
most of the Virginia is definitely not driving around in BMW's- but you know that- the rest of the state is all just like WV-
DL-
no dude- I absolutely see your point
McFearless @ 10:05
Rachel Maddow is nothing more than an extension of the White House spin machine.
Ahab,
Regarding the discussion the other day...
Mortgage contracts may START OUT as private. But they don't stay that way. If the people who put up the capital lose money, the taxpayers are forced to bail them out. Even apart from the $787B TARP, we'll be bailing out Fannie and Freddie for the next decade.
I'm willing to pay a high price to avoid a repeat of this fiasco in the future.
DL,
I don't even know who that is.
@ahab (10:08)
True... But the "Blacksburg" crew would never bother comin' a knockin'...
It's only the NOVA's that are a PAIN IN THE ASS!
Maddow = TrogloDYKE
oh I see, from the article. Never heard of her, just thought that ad was funny.
@"Sir DL"
And she WISHES she was an extension...
More like a "wannabe"...
DL-
mortgage loans are always private contracts-
if the USG wants to jump in and slop shit up-
well- whatever- but if they just let things be- it would all be worked out-
losers and winners
@ahab
Even the "Charlottesville" yuppies are tolerable because they live in their little BOARS HEAD bubble and don't bother anyone...
God, what a week. The Greek problem, same as it has always been. The endgame. This is the Keynesian Achille's heel...how to end the borrowing.
...How do you end it? Mr. Market seems to think he has an idea.
Maybe more this weekend. Another cruncher tomorrow.
Actually -
All of this DISCOURSE (Ohio-Michigan, VA-WVA, etc.) only UNDERSCORES what I was saying before about FEUDAL EUROPE...
People (humans), given the choice, tend to prefer to roam in tightly knit PACKS...
Let me put it another way:
A WALL STREETER WHO BLOGS > ANDY T > SURVIVOR/TA/DREAD/AMEN
=
EUROZONE > GERMANY/FRANCE/IBERIA > Lombardia/Toscana/Lazio/Campania
Any questions?
CV
Am I worthy of this new title.... "Sir"...?
I'm just a J6P sitting in front of a computer.
CV-
Charlottesville is a cool little town-
very Virginia- Thomas Jefferson after all was the mind behind UVA-
and Monticello- a great sight to see- and you would be impressed by the orchards that my man Jefferson created
@Doc
Greece... Achilles Heel... (Keynes or no Keynes)
You, my good doctor, are 'sharp' with the metaphors!
@ahab
My sister lives in Charlottesville... I go there often...
Back in the day, she ran a TRAVEL AGENCY and did all the bookings for the DAVE MATTHEWS BAND...
Lot's of stories!
Thanks, CV...I will offer my stunted musing this weekend...I have found that even in Eden, the doctoring business can be sometimes overwhelming...
Night.
El-Erian is in tomorrow's FT saying Greece will default.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2a07375c-52f8-11df-813e-00144feab49a.html
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/04/29/el-erian-says-greece-will-default/
@"Sir DL"
I KNIGHTED you earlier because YOUR HERO thread turned out to be a smashing success!
@Nic
DOH!
I just looked at the futures and saw 129.18 bid...
CV predicted 129.22 (on MAY 4th) back in February...
I HATE IT WHEN I LACK PRECISION IN MY CALLS! :-(
@Nic
Actually... IN ALL SERIOUSNESS tho...
I still think the "date" is correct... Which means, it's likely to OVERSHOOT the wedge by 3 candles or so, then come back into adjustment...
JMO
I think that BID/ASK spread I'm seeing is not correct though...
Did anyone see BIDI AH tonight?
HoocheMAMA!
CV I am sure your date is correct, I am a fib fan.
CV
Just looked at the AH for BIDU. I hope no one here was short BIDU because you're about to get slaughtered.
alright-
I'm a beat dog- the rack monster calls yet again- catch you all in the AM-
arrivederci
@Amen
NO SHIZZ THERE...
Hey... Wasn't the next FIBO extension (after 628 or something) on BIDU up around 722?
Do you have that data handy? (I'd asked you before many months ago and you published it)...
@ahab
Sweet NANTUCKET dreams!
BIDU is also doing a 10:1 split in May: Baidu Announces ADS to Share Change
Has anyone called a top yet?
If not I am
CV
Found it: Let's Talk About Baidu
DL, mainly in response to your hot coffee, sharp knife analogies. The link below, I think is a very good read on why this "short for every long" etc thing is not the case here.
Goldman Plated Excuses
@Nic
Top in BIDU?... or SPX?
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