AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bearish LONG day. Bearish harami confirmed. Closed below the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89. Midpoint now below 10 SMA (downtrend). Also closed below the weekly 3LB mid of 1191.94 (uh oh better do something quick). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1217.18. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish LONG day. Ignored the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Closed above the 233 SMA on the weekly chart at 81.47. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 80.19.



VIX
Bullish LONG day. Pure unadulterated fear (or is GS p/o?). Back above the 61.8% fibo ext (support) and shot through the 50%, 38.3%, 14.6%, 0.0%. Closed above a previous retracement high. Midpoint back above 10 SMA. New high on daily 3LB with reversal still 15.58.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. Closed above the 50.0% fibo ext (blowing right through the 38.2%). New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1152.30.



EURUSD
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed below the 21 SMA. Tested the 0.0% fibo retrace and failed (taking out previous low). Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece, Portugal, AIG all helping). Tested trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10) and failed. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3441.



XHB
Bearish long day. Looks to have rejected the 261.8% fibo ext. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.




XLE
Bearish long day. Closed below the 3rd parallel of the trendline (approx 60.26). Midpoint still above 10 SMA (for now). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint is equal to 10 SMA (trend unknown). Tested 21 SMA and passed. Tested the 100% fibo ext and failed (2x). Daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 40.14.

50 comments:

Ben22 said...

Well, pretty fun day.

I'm still not sure this is the big one, we'll see how the rest of the week goes.

thanks for the wrap Ra.

CV said...

@Ben

Hard to say...

There's a lot of room for a counter move tomorrow...

My takeaway?

I think the LEHMAN LEVEL is going to end up to be "CEMETARY RIDGE" (Gettysburg)...

It took 3 attempts to finally settle that one...

AmenRa said...

McF

I keep hearing bulls saying they want a 2% pullback so they can get long. Well they got it so what are they going to do? I'm thinking that yesterday was the high for the week and traders decided to bail to make their month.

CV said...

@McF

And that 'could' have a lot to do with how 'Neely' & Andy T saw an expended period on this triangle...

AmenRa said...

CV

Lehman level was around 1250 right? The first failed vote on TARP was 1209.07.

CV said...

@Amen

Read my (4:02) from the other thread...

Some of it ties together...

CV said...

@Amen

I know you like CLOSING CANDLES...

Look at the MONTHLY candles going back 20 years... Then look at the 144SMA on that and tell me what you see...

CV said...

@Amen (your VIX comments)

"Pure unadulterated fear"

Kind of went along with my WEREWOLF theme today :-)

"He'll rip your lungs out Jim!"

CV said...

See?

Volume isn't DEAD in these markets after all!...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rumors-volumes-demise-are-greatly-exaggerated

AmenRa said...

CV

This is just GS letting the Obama admin know what happens when you f%&# with us. LMAO.

AmenRa said...

CV

re: ZH post

quote: "Although with the whole world crashing and GS positive, at least it was made abundantly clear who runs the world."

Enough said. BB, TG and BO are calling Congress telling them to hurry up and get the hearings over with. Can't unload C at these levels.

CV said...

@Amen

PCT - Plunge Creation Team

Thanks for playing Barry! Grab your set of steak knives on your way out the door...

Ben22 said...

Ra,

Yeah, hard to say, I keep thinking that people will buy the dips way down in P3, way down....because what's fresh in their minds...well, how we bounced so hard off 6500 DOW of course.

I just got this from a client, some people listen to me:

Save me! I will stay put. The de-leveraging of industry and Nations has begun

C,

I also sort of have the idea that the market still moves higher very near term. Sort of. As I'm sure is clear, I can't get a great count right now that I think has a real high probability, I thought the running triangle was decent that EWI showed yesterday, but only decent, and then today toasted that idea. It's been very hard for me since that Jan set up that is for sure.

At night tonight I'll wonder why I'm a bull though near term, I've been saying for over a year P3 wouldn't let anyone in on the short side.

I'm just trying some small short term trades and sitting with my core positions with the exception of the dollar which I got out of for a while here. FXP looked good today.

All I can say is, I hope we crack well below 1170 and just keep going down from there in a P3 so that we can all laugh about Andy making some sweet cheeba with Uncle Rico.

CV said...

@Ben

"sweet cheeba with Uncle Rico" (Amen to that)...

I swear, after all this time I hardly care if I make any money anymore...

I just want to see all these clowns like Bernanke, Larry Summers, & TG, (and the people who, in their ALL SEEING/ALL KNOWING wisdom, gave them their jobs), be exposed for the FRAUD they're perpetrating.

And I'll enjoy watching the reaction to the followers of these "Pied Pipers"

AmenRa said...

Lloyd to McCain: "The fact that those houses are underwater ain't got shit to do with me."

CV said...

"OF the followers..."

Bottom line?

I'll be most happy of all when these people get their "ASSHATS" handed to them on a silver platter...

CV said...

Gotta go...

C yall later!

Nic said...

I am watching these politicians. It's infuriating that they ask such crap questions. There is a world of difference between buying and selling products and creating frankenmonster products to dupe people with.
Anyhow how many of these assholes voted for Gramm Leach Bliley? And they pop out in a tea break and block the Financial Reform Bill.

AmenRa said...

Nic

I saw the vote when the Senate blocked the financial reform from moving forward. People are finally realizing that Congress isn't capable of dealing with the financial institutions.

Andy T said...

Now that was a fun day.....the 1200 strike puts on futures were up 70% today....gotta love the leverage on leverage trade with volatility exploding and flat price coming off.

That was probably the biggest P&L swing I've had in a long time. Will need to trim a little tomorrow...take it from asshole-long puts to just sensibly-long.

I don't really trust that this "it" for the next big decline, but even a correction of the just the last leg up will drop the market another 70-80 S&P pts.

call me ahab said...

wow-

what I miss? Any market action?

. . .and I must take offense to being equated to wolfman-

I am not quite that uncivilized as I do shave from time to time- but women do fall in my arms-

it's a curse really(-:!!!

bob said...

I caught the 6pm CBS news. The GS testimony did not go well, and yes, they did have to bleep the "sh*tty deal", 3 times.

McFearless said...

Nice trade AT, real nice. I sold CAT puts way too early today, lol. The ones I sold ended up 164% on the day. Didn't even get half. I really thought that running triangle was going to work, we touched the bottom of it almost perfect to form....then we just kept going down, ha!

McFearless said...

I think this is the first time generally as a group we've been skeptical of a move down.

Sentiment trackers should be interesting this week....

spoonman said...

I was just thinking that, Ben...

spoonman said...

No bond report today? So sad.

Andy T said...

@McF.

The S&P trades have been few and far between the last several months. The good trades have been even more rare. So, yeah, I'm feeling OK right now.

I'll have to take 20% of it tomorrow morning. We should get a little more sell off after a move like today.

You see the action in Ford? Selling off on super strong earnings....not so bueno.

McFearless said...

A video to check out:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1477926282&play=1

McFearless said...

AT,

Yes I have been watching F in fact. Sell the news indeed. I've been looking nonstop for individual stocks at this point that I'd like to be short of. CBOE Put/Call was hitting lows it hadn't seen in a decade, puts are uh....real cheap, for what I think is coming. I agree we sell off more perhaps into later tomorrow maybe Thursday early, but I still think it will fight to the top and get into the big candle area you've been discussing in your updates as well as keeping your cited range of the mid 1200's, the neely count, etc, will be really interesting to watch, I don't think the decline is going to let people in, shalllow retraces that don't give shorts or longs a chance to enter and exit, you can count today as impulsive so we'll see from here....

McFearless said...

just watched those videos McHappy posted with Cramer discussing GS. When is this guy going to get booted? Seriously, how is he still on tv giving advice?

call me ahab said...

regarding today's action-

market closed pretty much at the low- no one buying in for a potential bump tomorrow-

I wouldn't see that as a good sign-

but maybe tomorrow Bernanke will revise the Fed language to read-

"exceptionally low rates forever" and "prosperity through QE for 1000 years"

that should be good for a few points I would think

CV said...

@Andy T

You da man! (on that trade)...

I hope you relish it BIG TIME!

CV said...

@ahab

We weren't referring to your 'looks'...

We were referring to your prowess with the ladies...

Women dig the WOLFMAN!

CV said...

@McF (7:41) @Andy T (7:29)

Keep in mind that on the last few major tops...

-956
-KT
-1150

The "pullbacks" all had FIBO durations...

21 days, 8 days, 13 days (respectively)...

Something to consider when you think that the move from 1055 lasted 55 days, and the two previous rallies lasted 51 & 54 days...

CV said...

...move from "1044" (not 1055), sorry

CV said...

@Andy T

And ANDY... Once again... 'effin AWESOME trade dude! :-)...

I love that shizz! :-)

call me ahab said...

CV-

dude- I like that avatar- where is it from- can't pull it- reminds me of "clockwork orange" but I know that's not right

CV said...

@ahab

It's one of my FANTASY BASEBALL avatars (I have 10 that I use in rotation)...

It's from the movie "The Warriors" (that's the captain of THE BASEBALL FURIES)...

Actually - The music & film clip from the The Warriors vs. The Baseball Furies is even cooler...

In the end, The Baseball Furies get their ass kicked...

But I like them just the same... I like their style! ;-)

AmenRa said...

No wonder Levin was angry. He voted for Gramm-Leach-Bliley
I'm surprised no one from GS brought that little tidbit up.

DL said...

AR @ 9:50

In Michigan, they're pro-labor and anti-capital.

CV said...

@DL

Well then why can't they put all their LABOR SKILLS into fixing up downtown DETROIT?

IMO - They're pro "sitting on their ass", and anti "doing any constructive work that's not UNIONIZED"...

But that's just me...

We ought to sell Michigan to effin France!

wunsacon said...

Gee, Andy and gang. Nice of you to tell me about this hangout! :-P

What am I -- chopped gyro?

CV said...

@wunsacon

Just a bunch of knuckleheads around here (except for Nic & karen)...

Hosted by the ULTIMATE KNUCKLEHEAD (& friends)...

Pull up a chair (or a sofa)... But don't look under the cushions...

wunsacon said...

>> Pull up a chair (or a sofa)... But don't look under the cushions...

And why not?? I found drachmas, baby!

Gonna give it to my broker, Bankrupides, and ask him to buy me some discount bonds.

O-pah!

karen said...

Chet, you are the consummate gentleman!

I'm with Andy on "That was probably the biggest P&L swing I've had in a long time." However, on my book, this was quite pathetic.. I want/long for those 6 digit swings..

And, at this point, I am so ready for BTD!

Nic said...

Hey LEFTBACK
I remembered where I saw the banks exposure to Greece. Remember this is JUST Greece CDS (not Portugal or Spain or Italy or UK or USA):
http://ow.ly/1E0db

Bad news for the mother country: http://ow.ly/1E0gh
And Euro: http://ow.ly/1E0eC

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aKjGr3eur2sI

Is Ben sending warning signals? FIrst time I've seen him talk about raising rates without seeing improvements in the economy - albeit his distorted view of improvements.

Check out the end of this Mish link re: EM.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/04/does-global-imbalance-matter-yet-did.html

McFearless said...

oh brother, Greece has banned all shorting. How'd that work for the banks in 08 again?

These guys will never learn, they just made it worse.

It's starting to get fun again team!

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

McFearless said...

McHappy,
5:23,

remember a few weeks ago when those auctions didn't go so well?

That's what the wizard is looking at and that's what you hear in his voice, he's not determining shit, the market is.

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