AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool advice when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bearish short day. Possible bearish harami. Next fibo target (using low) is the 1.8276 at 1218.63 (tested and failed). Midpoint still above 10 SMA (uptrend). No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish spinning top day. Held the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Avoided closing above the 233 SMA on the weekly chart at 81.47 (again). No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Hanging man (or dragonfly doji?). Probably waiting on vote later today. Back above the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Midpoint back above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GS
Bearish LONG day. Blew through the 1.618 fibo of 154.80. Closed back below the 14.6% fibo ext. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 159.98. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Looks like Lloyd has double bogeyed the last few holes.



AAPL
Possible dark cloud cover day (first day is too small). Each parallel line is 1.618xtrendline and it seemd to be holding the 6th. No daily 3LB changes.



30YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Still below 10 SMA. Closed above 55 SMA and held the 89 SMA. Held the 3rd lower parallel off the trendline. No daily 3LB changes.



XRT
Bullish short day. Tested 4th upper parallel line and failed. Trading above 10 SMA. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 43.87.






The Bond Report 4.26.10 - (courtesy of LB) - Elegance comes both "shaken" & "stirred"


The credit markets were too tedious for words today, like a late August Friday on the way to the beach tedious....

Corpies: LQD 0.05%; AGG -0.01%; JNK 0.05%; HYG 0.00%; 
Govies: TLT 0.11%; IEI 0.08%; TIP 0.09%

We are hedged into tomorrow's auction of 2y.


19 comments:

I-Man said...

Ra,

You are a champion.

mcHAPPY said...

as for your 4:27, we call that wave 4.
-McFearless

Thoroughly enjoyed that.

mcHAPPY said...

THank you, Ra. Hope you are feeling better soon.

AmenRa said...

I'm making Andrew Dice Clay look like a wuss with all of the swearing I'm doing as I stand up to move around.

call me ahab said...

"The point is that people who take out mortgages should have "skin in the game". If not garnishing wages, then a big down payment."

DL- what does that have to do w/ the USG going after private citizens regarding a default- which is a private contract- and how is garnishing wages = skin in the game?

the skin in the game is the down payment- in lieu of a down payment banks can rely on guarantees from FHA, Ginnie Mae or private mortgage insurance-

let's don't add to the "responsibilities" for the USG to make sure people follow through on their contracts

talk about "nanny" state

McFearless said...

Ra,

Dude, I can't believe you put the wrap out. First, thanks so much and Second, that is extremely generous given what you had going on today.

Respect and I hope you are feeling better very soon.

AmenRa said...

Vote on financial regulation failed. Risk on! LMAO.

Mike Tyson said...

Just like I faded away the Fed is going to print you bearish bitches into Bolivian.

mcHAPPY said...

Anyone interested in shorting TZA would find this interesting:

http://www.apartofny.com/2010/04/rut-ew-count-update/

What do wavers think of the count?

mcHAPPY said...

Another count I'd appreciate thoughts on. This one for S&P500.

http://www.apartofny.com/2010/04/spx-new-elliot-wave-count/

CV said...

Cleaning up a little here on some previous posts...

#1 - Way to "PLAY LIKE A CHAMPION TODAY" Amen...

Governments going after people for mortgage defaults is a ridiculous idea...

a) It doesn't clear the market
b) It ENSLAVES people to the same markets... It basically commits the SAME ERROR that the present Administration has committed... That is, people will stay locked to a certain location, instead of seeking elsewhere a situation where they may thrive, and where a new opportunity NEEDS them...

This is the ULTIMATE INEFFICIENCY of SOCIALISM & a BAILOUT TBTF mentality...

Think about how much Capital (at present), is being LOCKED UP because of the FEAR of the process of re-setting and moving on...

CV said...

I mean Jesus H. Christ... Haven't ALL OF US HERE, for as long as I can remember, existed in a world there there is little TRUE price discovery for anything...

Nothing investable... Just "he said she said", they're getting bailed out/ the other one is writing a CDS... Lies upon lies...

& OH JOY! Now the politicians have their hand in it...

COME ON MAN!

Let people default (the way they USED to)... If it's a problem, then the institution that loaned them the money wasn't doing its risk analysis properly and should be shuttered...

Not until people PAY for bad decisions, they don't learn... But the system must allow for PURGES and REBIRTH...

The government? U gotta be effing kidding me...

That ranked in the top 5 of the STUPIDEST comments I've ever read on any blog...

Andy T said...

mcHappy@7.25

That S&P count is sort of interesting. A "similar" but different count is the one in here on Slide 2: http://www.scribd.com/doc/29404403/S-P-500-Update-4-Apr-10

That is the "Neely" count for sure.

The one big problem with "apartofny"'s big triangle count is the [c] of {c} was NOT an impulse. That was another corrective wave of some sort. Which is what is nice about Neely's count.

In that regard, Neely seems more convinced that the next correction we see will only be a lesser degree wave (per that count on Slide 2). So, he still sees several more weeks before we see the "finale."

Nic said...

Amen-Ra - I appreciate you v much. Feel lots better soon.

DL said...

ahab @ 6:21


"what does that have to do w/ the USG going after private citizens regarding a default- which is a private contract[?]?

Private contracts, my *ss.

I can give you 787 billion reasons why those weren't private contracts.

The #1 issue here is bailouts. The secondary issue is bubbles.

My betting is that if the banks get into trouble again, the politicians will bail them out. (I don't care what Chris Dodd may say).

karen said...

AR, thank you! my fav chart? GS! The 30 doesn't scare me..if tomorrow closes below the 34 ema, that'll make six! and i think the 13 will duck under the 34.. and if they keep up the QE charade.. gold will make a statement, now that the financials are in the dog house.. That said, I see the bank-reform bill blocked.. it was milk toast, anyway.. Make room for a real one?

PS. so so sorry about your squashed nerve.. hope you can dope up and sleep, at least.

SC said...

Check out the first two hits on Google for the term shi**y.

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks, Andy. Would it be safe to assume that regardless of whichever count is used a conclusion to this grinding range bound trend will over sooner rather than later?

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

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