Morning Audibles 4.28.10 - While You Were Sleeping

Here's what was happening while you were sleeping (Nic & McF, we know you don't sleep, but let's just "say" you were sleeping)...



Spanish Q1 2010 Unemployment Number Accidentally Leaked, Surpasses 20% For First Time Since 1997





A freak leak of the Spanish unemployment number by the National Statistical Institute (INE), the equivalent to the DOL, was captured by Spanish daily ABC.es, according to which for the first time since 1997, the unemployment rate in the country that was notched by S&P today, will surpass 20%. This number was supposed to be under embargo until Friday. According to the temporary leak which was subsequently promptly removed, the number of unemployed in Spain increased from 4.3 million to 4.6 million between the end of 2009 and March 31, 2010. 


What’s worse is that the unemployment among Spain’s youth is reaching epidemic proportions: “the unemployment rate for those under 25 years in the first quarter of 2010 was 40.93% and 18.02% in those over 25 years. In the group of 16-19 years, the rate is 59.79% and 13.1% among the unemployed aged 55 and older.” Dealing drugs is probably a more lucrative job than working for the government anyway. No taxes either.


So how are S&P FUTURES taking this news (aware that Greece is about to default, and Spain, which is much LARGER, is one of a few in line to be the next domino)?...


Hey! They're UP!... Whadda ya know?


I carefully avoided using the one with Erin Burnett riding it.

All I can say is, well, we ARE in the zodiac sign of TAURUS... Problem is, there appear to be two different types of BULLS battling it out (one wants to "gore", and the other wants to "soar")... Maybe they're getting themselves confused with the TWINS?


Oh I know... I can do better than that! (right LB)?



283 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 283   Newer›   Newest»
McFearless said...

whoa, looked at bidu re the bottom thread. xom "missed" appears to be as a result of a health care charge.

AmenRa said...

McF

BIDU shorts will be getting kicked while they're down. BIDU share price has been increasing around $100/month. They are still sending fruit baskets to Google.

CV said...

@McF

At this point, for NO OTHER REASON, it would seem that BIDU would just go up and hit that last fibo extension that AMEN had on his blog...

Why?

Because it would top Google's ALL TIME HIGH price...

Silly reasoning, but those Chinese are competitive types...

McFearless said...

Ra,

That's what is sort of surprising about how big the jump is, I believe short interesting dropped by about half in BIDU recently. I'm not about to step in front of the train, but I will take a look at BIDU puts today.

karen said...

Morning! CV, your posts always have me starting the day with laughter and smiles! no matter what! I'm afraid to leave this page however..

karen said...

FSLR up over 12%, BIDU up over 14%.. inconsequential short position in Bidu.. FSLR, has/had a big one.

So why is the dollar weaker today?

mcHAPPY said...

Looks to be quite an interesting day ahead.

CV said...

@karen

Same to you... (with your comments & shoes) :-)

@I-Man

My man... I think this is that "move to 1201" that you were talking about yesterday... Just a couple of ticks late...

Close enuf tho :-)

CV said...

@karen

Are you a little "short" BIDU...

Sneaky...

CV said...

Next stop would be DL's 1210...

I can see that possibly happening... But CV is also VERY aware that tomorrow is END OF MONTH...(& end of week)...

I've gotta think the 1192-1194 area will have a say in the close of those candles (for technical reasons)...

McFearless said...

Based on what we are seeing in Greece, I'll admit, it makes me afraid of what is going to happen here. I'm not pretending, like so many seem to be, that the same issues aren't coming our way.

I-Man said...

Holy BIDU...

Funny, my father in law was just asking me about BIDU on Monday night... glad I didnt offer an opinion, because if I had, it would NOT have been to get long.

Just look at that monthly chart... UFB.

McFearless said...

yeah, I think BIDU qualifies as a "blow-off" move.

wow.

McFearless said...

Just went to BR's, he's asking who got the short euro/long dollar call right?

lol.....

long dollar, anyone here ever suggest it?

CV said...

@McF

We're all going to get rich owning a SEARCH ENGINE in a communist country that censors information...

Now why didn't I think of that?

I'll NEVER MAKE it in big business :-)

CV said...

@McF (10:05)

early & often - as I recall...

Had to "sweat out" those December calls

karen said...

CV, I have nothing to do with BIDU.. I was just agreeing with Ben that Bidu wasn't a short squeeze, unlike FSLR..

McFearless said...

C,

There is still time to come up with some fancy storage for the backyard copper and gold though.

In my Dr. Evil voice:

You could have 1 billion fafillion customers!

Mannwich said...

Well worth a read. And this from an INSIDER at Citi.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/willem-buiter-issues-his-most-dire-prediction-yet-sees-unprecedented-fiscal-crises-rampant-u

karen said...

A diller a dollar a ten o'clock scholar.. I still can't figure out the dollar move.. can someone enlighten me, pls?

Look at copper! down again.. FXP up..

Mannwich said...

@karen: In Opposite World, just think about what should be happening and pick the exact opposite.

mcHAPPY said...

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/36847448/1

George Soros has said he believes that there is a real possibility that the euro will cease to exist based on the current discord among member nations. Jim Rogers and Marc Faber have said the same thing and they are being joined by a chorus of strategists who only see gloom for the future of the EU.

CV said...

@McF

I'm going to come up with some "Porky Pig" style filing cabinet (or maybe I can just use LB's piggybank), & sell it to all the Chinese farmers to hold their paper copper and gold certificates in...

Ought to make a fortune!

McFearless said...

Karen,

I love FXP right now, also check out BZQ, Bovespa has decent waves.

karen said...

And, for the record, if GS closes over 160, i am done with this racket.

McFearless said...

Manny,

that thing is 68 pages! I've already got I's link to MA to read. Can't keep up with you guys.

I-Man said...

2 of my favorite quotations from last nights thread:

"The world is tribal." -CV

"My mind is doji." -AmenRa


Good stuff.

CV said...

@karen (10:16)

(dollar)... More gum flapping about Greece cutting pensions... Of course, MONDAY they'll decide...

Should be about right, it's LABOR DAY weekend there...

- Or maybe they're all just trying to respect CV's "1.29 on May 4th prediction", out of courtesy...

Mannwich said...

@ben: Yeah, admittedly I haven't read the whole thing, but plowed through enough of it to realize that it's a good read.

@karen: I've clung to my FXP as well. Seems to be trending up nicely.

CV said...

@I-Man

Tribal

karen said...

i might do bzq at 22.09.. hmm..

karen said...

Yeah, after reviewing last night's thread, I decided to go Mother Goose today.

McFearless said...

You know Manny, just glancing the bullet points, it looks like what we've been talking about. Deflation to run it's course, to cause disaster the next few years, the social mood of this leads to much more radical leaders, the type which would change the Fed mandates, and then after all of that we deal with hyperinflation.

McFearless said...

when I read articles like that one I feel stupid for not just buying gold right now.

McFearless said...

Karen,

lol....I'm wondering how many pairs of shoes you have. I bet you and my wife could start a store.

CV said...

@Manny (10:17)

You need to learn the ANNIE OAKLEY shot to win in this market...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbQezcKi1pc

McFearless said...

alright things should get interesting now, volume not super impressive this morning, lets see what the big boys do now

Nic said...

I think the dollar fell and stocks rallied because of the "Goldman is going to settle" story much like the sell off two days ago was as much about the GS hearings as Greece. Just my 2c.

CV - Top in the SPX is in for now

McFearless said...

Nic,

If we can't break above 1210 you may be right. And nobody will get in short this way....

CV said...

@Nic

I hope so!

McFearless said...

did anyone go back and look at market action yesterday compared to other fomc days? it all felt just a bit muted yesterday and that battle going on into the close, I don't recall that happening before either.

I would have but, you know, the Idol vote off was last night....

CV said...

@McF

1210 defenitely b the bogey at the moment...

karen said...

Nic, thanks for your 2c cuz it makes the most sense! : )

CV said...

@karen

Come on... It's all about me and my "beaten to death" 1.29 call (and you KNOW IT!)... - lol

I-Man said...

Nic bringing the fyah mon...

Mannwich said...

That little dip the other day but a distant memory. LOL>

CV said...

@Manny

ANDY T still remembers it... I'm pretty sure :-)

AmenRa said...

Manny

I started with the Conclusion in Buiter article before reading the whole thing.

Mannwich said...

@Amen: I know it's nothing new to people here but the fact that an INSIDER at Citi of all places is saying these things, is striking, I thought.

Mannwich said...

So the starving bears (yours truly included) gets one decent down day a quarter these days......talk about trying to feed one's belly on table scraps.

McFearless said...

yep, there is no euphoria or anything:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anQNxxSm8VyU&pos=3

Mannwich said...

TLT goes green. Hhhmmmmmmm.......

McFearless said...

stalling, right in Dan's target zone. I still think we'll go to new highs, but so does everybody else....

CV said...

@Jeff (10:57)

Depends on one's perspective... The move down (in about 8 hours of trading), wiped out 16 days of trading...

I'm not really sure how comfortable the BULLS are (except for the JOHNNYS who don't really look too closely anyway)...

Mannwich said...

@CV: Well, that's the way it usually works right? Escalator up, elevator down, but lately it's been escalator up for 90 days, elevator down for one, repeat.

McFearless said...

Manny,

rewind to March 09, when everyone said what you just did in reverse.

Only, there eventually wasn't a repeat....

Mannwich said...

I hear you, ben. You know I'm FAR more sympathetic to the bear case but I just think this thing can and will A LOT longer than many of us believe. I'm sticking to that theory right now.

Mannwich said...

And, let's face it - - the bears are really fighting the tide here. Unprecedented soveriegn manipulations have likely distorted the market in such a way that we are likely in unchartered waters on what to expect.

karen said...

what hit gold? a stronger euro??? JFC, i can't make cents out of anything today.

Nic said...

Manny
What makes me think that this might actually be a top is that so so many bears think the same as you. I did too, I think none of us trust dips anymore.

Mannwich said...

Good point, Nic. I've had those thoughts as well. Many of the bears are definitely wearily circumspect on any dip now. You might be right that we're edging ever closer to the top.

Nic said...

Where is LB? He promised to wake us up to this when we got jaded ...

karen said...

lulu and jcg have identical 60 min charts..

AmenRa said...

Nic & Manny

I don't care about the dips unless they lead to a weekly reversal. Until then I keep my powder dry.

karen said...

LB is engaged in one of his beloved sports thru the weekend.

CV said...

LB would probably tell you that JNK managed two 'marginally' higher closes than back in January...

That was RIGHT before the big dip the other day...

It's struggling here to RETAKE that territory...

It's going to look mighty DOUBLE TOP-ish if it fails...

That's CV's 2c

Mannwich said...

Agreed Amen. Am happy to hide out mostly in TLT right now.

Mannwich said...

And cash.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/greece-cant-collect-property-taxes-2010-4

Thousands Of Greeks Haven't Paid Property Taxes In Years, And The Government Can't Make Them

....I suspect that Ms. Merkel wishes she were somewhere else this week. I know this much, if the Germans agree to bail out Greece, it won't be the last as CV rightly posts.

http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-get-over-it-greek-is-going-to-fail-2010-4

David Rosenberg: Get Over It, Greece Is Going To Fail

karen said...

Color me lost without any old rules working.

Mannwich said...

"Uncharted" waters, karen.

karen said...

bzq getting closer to 22..

Nic said...

Cheer up Karen - look at Natgas

McFearless said...

I challenge the idea these waters are uncharted, it's just that 99% of pundit's either look at similar periods and conclude that

1. THAT could never happen again

or

2. We know how to prevent that, what with all genius at the Fed/IMF, etc.

McFearless said...

I think right now you have to trade options, I don't know why you'd want to trade stocks right now.

Nic said...

OK its turnaround time ... I am going to stare it down now.

Mannwich said...

The Fed's actions are unprecedented. I think everyone can admit that.

I-Man said...

If I had money, I'd be buying some MF BIDU puts...

AmenRa said...

Karen

How many using the old rules of closing under support for two days got trapped?

I-Man said...

Or better yet... I'd be fading some BIDU calls!

Like that? MEH?

Mannwich said...

Even GS back up to almost 160. All is well.

Mannwich said...

@Amen: Short-covering rally today? Bears running for their lives with their tails between their legs? Let's face it - Banana Benny and co have the bears cowering the corner right now.

I-Man said...

I remember POT...

McFearless said...

Manny,

We've copied Japan, I find it hard to call actions unprecendented as a result, especially when they were all predicted in a book written a decade ago. I suppose we could say we never had a TARP before or something like that, but what we call it doesn't really matter, deflation happened before, and "they" tried to stop in then too.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

If Google is fully out of the picture in China I'd be nervous about BIDU puts. Maybe for a day or two but nothing much longer than that. If Google works it out somehow then I'd load up the puts.

McFearless said...

is this really short covering, with the put/call ratio as low as it has been in a decade?

I-Man said...

Ra-

Any trade I do is for a day or two... or I get too ego.

CV said...

@Nic

(or if anyone else is interested - ben/Amen/karen)...

A comparison that strikes me as being interesting at the moment is the following (I welcome other views on this as well)...

Look at JNK

For all intents and purposes, it made a HIGH in early January (Jan 8th, I think)... It went down BEFORE the SPX broke down...

SPX eventually went to new highs... JNK just recently made a new high (but only by a penny or two - not percentage points like SPX)...

It basically "looks" like a double top...

JNKmade two "marginally" higher closes, then pulled back wickedly the other day like everything else...

However... If you look at the PULLBACKS (on both SPX & JNK)... look at it on a 10 day chart or 20 day chart to get a broader view...

JNK retraced .013 (fibo)... SPX hit .021, and started a break for .034 before getting saved...(so there is a nice WEDGE on JNK, whereas the SPX looks a little sloppy)...

IMO - It's going to take an upwards break of JNK to get the rest of the "risk off" gang going again...

If JNK has double topped... This could be the end...

Thoughts?

Nic said...

I have had the TV off today but I just read this comment elsewhere:
"There was one of those greedy Wall Street interviewed on TV this morning. He said that traders are determined today to bring the indexes to the last Tuesday’s level (before the Greece credit rating news did hit the market).
When he was asked about his concerns over sovereign debts in Europe. he said that he doesn’t care."

karen said...

I just did an overlay chart of jnk and spx for the last 2.6 years.. sure as heck looks like this could be the end..

Mannwich said...

@ben: Not the exact playbook. I'd say we're doing even MORE than Japan did. Much more.

Mannwich said...

@cv: This is the end, my only friend, the end.....lol

McFearless said...

Manny,

I'm sure you could argue that. My take is that the Wizard is just reacting like he said he would in his speech.

We are f'ed is my take.

It's one giant shitty deal.

CV said...

@karen

Thanks for looking at that :-)...

I'm watching JNK very closely right now...

It would seem, to me, that it needs to get up over 40.18 (and stay there) for this rally to extend at this point...

Nic said...

CV I am looking at JNK & SPX now
I agree with Karen ...
Good spot.

karen said...

xrt looking toasty.. i mean, burnt.

CV said...

@Manny (12:17)

Great song! One of my favorites...

But, like everyone else right now, I can only look at things that I HOPE mean something...

If they don't? All I can say is...

I Don't Know

CV said...

@Nic

In any case, I think the latest wedge on JNK (past 10 days)... bears watching for a BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN...

bob said...

What is the par on JNK? It supposedly based on a bond portfolio, that would lead to a par value, one which, even if everything worked out(goldilocks), would be the top.

Am I wrong on that? Thinking out loud...

AmenRa said...

re: JNK

weekly 3LB high= 40.09
weekly 3LB mid= 39.87
weekly 3LB rev= 39.65
trend=up
year high 2010= 40.21

Until it breaks the mid we may take out the high from Jan 2010.

Nic said...

Someone is buying SPY in big size

mcHAPPY said...

I think JNK is one of the things Mish has been watching. I would agree if JNK breaks down it is over for Johnny.

AmenRa said...

typo
weekly 3LB high= 40.13

mcHAPPY said...

@Mannwich from above,

AmenRa said it before I had the chance but I use his site for the weekly's to get an idea of where we are in the GRAND scheme of things. The daily's are great to end or start a position and I base all on the close. I can't figure out who I adore more: 3LB or AmenRa. I'd have to go with Ra as he does the numbers for me/us, haha.

bob said...

Put another way on JNK-

The market makers on the ETF could put the top in. They look at the underlying portfolio, see that the price on JNK is above that, put the portfolio together themselves, and then sell more JNK shares into the market.

It's an Arb thing, where demand for the etf exceeds demand for the underlying.

CV said...

@Amen

I have 40.24 as the high

I-Man said...

I saw that Nic (12:42) and I think its one of those "red herrings"...

Watch for a false breakout at 1210... and then a dump.

CV said...

not WEEKLY...

Just high 2010 PRINT...

I-Man said...

Bob you're just full of surprises...

You have quite a knowledge base, speaks to your lot cred.

:)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/now-obama-is-making-emergency-calls-to-merkel-over-greek-aid-2010-4

The Greek crisis is obviously freaking out The White House.

According to MSNBC's Chuck Todd, Obama has made a personal call to the recalcitrent Angela Merkel over moving forward on the bailout.

Germany is getting pressure from all sides. The IMF wants it to act, Obama wants it to act, and you know the leaders of Spain and Portugal want it to act.


...Why not? This is what community organizers do...

CV said...

@Amen

How r the drugs treating you? :-)

mcHAPPY said...

Social mood is shifting. Nic, I think you may be right.

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/36850493/1

mcHAPPY said...

Lara did a DJIA count. She is looking at a break of 10,750 or a break of her channel as possibly the signal P3 has arrived.

http://www.forexinfo.us/2010/04/29/djia-elliott-wave-analysis-28th-april-2010/

AmenRa said...

CV

Weekly high close not highest price reached. 3LB uses closing prices.

AmenRa said...

CV

Quite well. Still feel some pinching but not enough to keep me from moving around.

bob said...

https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=JNK

I don't like the data set up on SPDRs. Proshares does a NAV v shares outstanding sheet which is what you should look at in these situations. But, if you click on the 'premium to discount nav chart' it shows that over the last quarter it was trading at a premium to NAV for 44 days.

It's the same situation that happened with the USO etf, only junk bonds are a lot easier to get that oil.

bob said...

heavy trade, heavy trade...

karen said...

hope i didn't jinx you on bzq.. got filled on my limit order at 22.28...

ung is wild! why can't $wtic do that ?? lol.

CV said...

Maybe we'd all be better at handicapping this:

2010 KENTUCKY DERBY (Post Positions & Odds)

1. Lookin at Lucky 9/2
2. Icebox 18/1
3. Noble's Promise 14/1
4. Super Saver 14/1
5. Line of David 35/1
6. Stately Victor 35/1
7. American Lion 22/1
8. Deans Kitten 50/1
9. Make Music For Me 50/1
10. Paddy O'Prado 22/1
11. Devil May Care 12/1
12. Conveyance 16/1
13. Jackson Bend 14/1
14. Mission Impazible 16/1
15. Discreetly Mine 45/1
16. Awesome Act 10/1
17. Dublin 14/1
18. Backtalk 50/1
19. Homeboykris 60/1
20. Sidney's Candy 15/2

FWIW - CV likes #4 "Super Saver"

CV said...

Moonlight Graham says...

@Amen

"Ease his Pain"...

McFearless said...

I, 12;49,

If it plays that we and we impluse down again in five waves....ruh roh.

bob said...

Paddy O'Prado- Seamus Zavaglia gave me a tip.

CV said...

How would you like to be the lawyer on this one?

Elin Nordegren-Tiger Woods Divorce Could Have $500 Million Settlement

Nic said...

U.S. TREASURY: Seven-year notes draw 3.210% at auction today with 2.82 bid/cover ratio. 59.5% of notes went to indirect bidders.

bob said...

I offered to set up the Tiger Woods/ Paul Mcartney foundation- seeking to end alimony forever.

Didn't hear back from either.

McFearless said...

"According to MSNBC's Chuck Todd, Obama has made a personal call to the recalcitrent Angela Merkel over moving forward on the bailout."


What a joke, I'm thinking the days of the rest of the world taking the direction of the US on financial advice are about over....

DL said...

B in T @ 12:50

It seems to me that, from the perspective of the average J6P in Germany, the situation is even more clear-cut than it was here back in September of 2008. In September of '08, there were at least some ordinary citizens who believed the hogwash that Hank Paulson was putting out.
But if Germany refuses to give any money to Greece, all that would happen will be a selloff in the stock markets, and a selloff in the Euro; but after all the dust had cleared, Germany would actually be far better off in the long run as a result of the refusal to provide the welfare.

Of course, as we know, when the majority of voters want something, the politicians often do the opposite.

mcHAPPY said...

Unless we have a sell off in to the close, it looks like mcHAPPY will be closing FAZ positions for a small loss. tsk tsk tsk.

karen said...

jnk back at hod...

CV said...

@DL

In 2008... Paulson was an "ex-Goldman Chairman" acting as US Treasury Secretary in a lame duck administration with a chance to make his old boy buddies 100% whole...

What the VOTING PUBLIC thought (or how they would react) never entered into consideration...

CV said...

@karen (1:26)

I'm not really concerned until it breaks out of that wedge that it's in, or breaks ABOVE the down trendline from a few days ago...

CV said...

@DL

Kind of like a "Presidential Pardon" for Treasury Secretaries...

karen said...

this day is too effing weird.. excuse me, i had to say it. something has got to give.

CV said...

@McF (1:18)

Well it's a good thing he doesn't have to make that kind of call to Sarkozy (who already thinks he's a JACKASS in the first place)... :-)

DL said...

CV @ 1:26

One of the mysteries about that whole thing was John McCain. He could have single-handedly stopped the bailout; or at least, he could have publicly stated that he would only support a TARP of, say, $200B.

(Obama could have stopped it too, but of course, that's the last thing that he'd want to do)

karen said...

hey, look, the spx was at 666 again.. 1206.66, that is.

DL said...

CV @ 1:29

Bush was just a brain-dead moron at that point.

CV said...

@karen

It might the SHOES... The other ones brought better luck...

That always happens with me (at the gym)...

When I need the market to go down... All I have to do is get locker #363... Works like a charm...

Don't worry... It things get dicey here, I'll put up some WEREWOLF posters...

CV said...

@DL

They're ALL basically morons...

CV said...

But what did anyone expect?

DL said...

CV @ 1:30

"who already thinks he's a JACKASS in the first place"

Between that, and the hot wife, I'm liking this Sarkozy guy more and more.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

@DL@1:21

There has been some minor speculation that Germany should press for a small EU that would be stable without the pretenders. Gosh, makes too much sense for the German legislators to attempt, I suppose.

karen said...

A bit of esotericism for you:

"Now that we have a little pause in the circus, I want to return to an issue introduced a few days ago. I used the events of the day to introduce the idea that the ownership of an institution is important. If the market bids up and rewards behavior that is anti society, then it will very hard to stop that behavior, new regulations or not. Even today Dick Bove was putting a $200 price tag on Goldman and saying to buy it. Each of us has to decide if we are willing to overlook the behavior and make the investments in these firms in hopes of realizing profits. "

http://thefourteenthbanker.wordpress.com/

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

Just a comment about your editoral judgement:

You seem to always get the pictures in inverted order as to amount of interest.

...Just one man's opinion....

DL said...

B in T @ 1:38

Yes, the twins...!

CV said...

@BinT

Germany should press for a small EU

Yeah... That would include:

- Bavaria
- Hamburg
- Holstein
- Berlin
- Saxony
- Lower Saxony
- Saarland
- Hesse
- Bremen
- Westphalia

Get my drift? :-)

CV said...

@Doc

My "editorial judgement" is sound!

I mean... How else can I get people to get to the end of my articles :-)

karen said...

Anything for you, CV.. you know I was so sad/depressed last night i fell asleep before 8pm.. and today I am worse!

CV said...

@DL

I'll take the "hot wife"...

You can have Sarkozy for yourself...

karen said...

spx at 1207 is just not doing it for me.

DL said...

Karen @ 1:41

Well, previously, your problem was one of insomnia.

CV said...

@karen

Just keep your pretty little eyes on the JNK in the Trunk...

Let's just keep that one in the barn for now, and all will end well...

BinT said...

Yes, I do think it is Snow White and the dwarves (certainly including France)...as to the pictures, I was thinking a little outside the box...I mean, there is no need to go Hefner on us, but you know the term "casual Friday"? Well, we could occassionally have a "Twins Tuesday", or something similar.

Again, just one man's opinion....and I know The Leftback would probably rant against such a breakdown of editorial decorum...

BinT said...

Doors to the mine have opened...

McFearless said...

"this day is too effing weird.. excuse me, i had to say it. something has got to give."


Just say shitty over and over again, it's working for me.....

CV said...

@karen (1:36)

On that comment... CV has already decided that I WILL concede and move to the dark side if I ever see the LEHMAN HURDLE (first OVERCOME - then BACKTESTED)... And even there, will be a STOP...

But this lunacy has to prove to me first that it is BEYOND ALL REPAIR...

DL said...

B in T @ 1:45

"I know The Leftback would probably rant against such a breakdown of editorial decorum..."


LOL!!

CV said...

leftback says... (from his weekend sports affair)

"Bruce & all you other Traders... I send you all of my ATHLETIC SUPPORT"

karen said...

another that correlates nicely: HYG:LQD

also has a dbl top, .847 on Jan 12, .850 on Apr 20..

McFearless said...

We shouldn't really be stalling around here if we are going to have one last impulse up. Unless of course it's one of the "if the pattern can take longer it will take longer" type things.

DL said...

McF @ 1:54

Maybe Merkel is at an impasse.

(The smart money probably knows).

karen said...

sh*tty, just went to bloomberg to check the 3 mo..

CV said...

Mucho agreemento on HYG...

More on JNK...

On the 10 min charts... I see...

- 40.10 (which was the January high) is looking a little "REVERSE H&S-ish" on 10 min. charts...

- It also looks a little "start of cuphandle-ish" off an A-B-C correction from the dip...

or are my eyes deceiving me?

karen said...

CV, I beg to differ.. seems like all the pushes launched on a stall, especially at the close! LOL.. how do they do that??

DL said...

Karen @ 1:56

We're going to have to address you as "Senator Karen".

CV said...

@DL

Maybe Merkel is at an impasse.

Or maybe Obama is just chewing her ear off on the phone and reciting passages from his autobiography...

McFearless said...

I missed it, why is eveyone watching JNK?

CV said...

It's LLOYD (out of "hearings")... back to picking up pennies...

CV said...

@McF

Read my (12:05)

mcHAPPY said...

Karl Denninger has a good piece today.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2245-The-Wheels-On-The-Bus-Go-Flying-Down-The-Street.html

First link in the above is here:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/75481e32-52cd-11df-a192-00144feab49a.html

karen said...

my heart is about to stop.. i should never look at GS.

mcHAPPY said...

CV

This should be up your ally with attention on Kentucky Derby lately:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/04/belmont-stakes-needs-government-loan-to.html

McFearless said...

karen, I'm not going to look at it but there was a gap that needed to be closed from a few days ago on that POS right? (GS)

mcHAPPY said...

@Karen

My heart is going a little faster with sell at the close being below 11.35 on FAZ.

CV said...

@McHappy

Besides Belmont... Pimlico (Baltimore) where they run the Preakness has been in trouble for YEARS...

They've been talking about moving the Preakness to ARLINGTON PARK (Chicago)...

I-Man said...

To clarify this:

I-Man said...
I saw that Nic (12:42) and I think its one of those "red herrings"...

Watch for a false breakout at 1210... and then a dump.

April 29, 2010 12:49 PM


I should have mentioned that there is a good chance of a false breakDOWN from 1208, before a false breakOUT at 1210.

At least thats been the game for awhile now... sucker in some over eager shorts, toy with them, burn them, and then dump on top of them.

mcHAPPY said...

Did anyone post Rosie today? If not here is something I can't see anyone here disagreeing with:

First we have governments bailing out banks (and auto companies and mortgage providers), homeowner debtors, and now we have governments bailing out governments. When does someone finally say — enough is enough! Oh no — bank ABC is too big to fail. Company XYZ is too complex to fail. And now country GRK is too interconnected to fail. Give me a giant break.

Look, Greece is not going to “fail”. They are going to default. There will be a debt restructuring. And there will be some recovery. Bondholders will take a haircut — why shouldn’t they? Why should Angela Merkel care if German banks own Greek bonds? Greece has been in default in its recent 200-year history almost half the time. So has most of Latin America come to think of it. What about Russia?

So Greece defaults, bondholders who knowingly bought these instruments knowing the historical record went for the yield and simply do not deserve a taxpayer-supported bailout of any kind. To actually come to the aid of Greece (especially after all the accounting gimmickry) would send a signal to investors that the best way to make money is buy the debt of the most risky and highest yielding enterprise because there will always be a bailout. Rewarding bad investment decisions is a huge mistake, in my opinion.

Let Greece default, the world will not come to an end, and whether or not the country gets a “bailout”, the fiscal drain is going be a pervasive drag on economic activity for at least the next five years. While there may be contagion risks — same deal. Investors who bought Club Med bonds with their stretched government balance sheets in order to stretch for yield don’t deserve to be bailed out either.

Taxpayers unite, wherever you live (because you too support the IMF). These are solvency issues we are talking about, not liquidity issues. This is about bad decisions, not market failure.

DL said...

"sucker in some over eager shorts, toy with them, burn them, and then dump on top of them"

* * * * * * * *

"churn 'em, 'n burn 'em"

DL said...

McHappy,


We should send the SEC after those Greek bastards.

karen said...

Did all you see this TBP post? (Ahab, obviously did!)

Macro Overview: The Economy and Markets

McFearless said...

McHappy,

Rosie is spot on, deflation IS NOT the end of the world, "armageddon" as so many say. is it awful, sure it is, but it's not the end of the world......

McFearless said...

Karen,

I caught it, I actually made a comment over there under his AAII post, which was basically some boloney.

CV said...

@McF

You're right... It's not the end of the world...

This is the end of the world (here)...

http://www.j2fi.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/falling_off_the_edge.jpg

DL said...

Sold my two ESM0 contracts today.

Market probably goes higher, but I'm not in it right now.

McFearless said...

No no C, that's what they call waterfront property.

There's a tax credit coming for that, and a bonus if you put a windmill in the water by your home.

McFearless said...

DL,

i gotta give you some props man, we don't really agree on the next market outcome but you've made a lot of good trades lately it seems.

nice going.

CV said...

@McF

Re: TBP (which now I call the WSWB"Wall Streeter Who Blogs" blog)...

The sense that I get (from many recent threads), are basically a "green shoots" (last year), to "falling leaves" theme...

IOW - It's like...

"are the leaves falling yet?... any of you out there see any leaves falling?... I haven't but I've been busy putting Grey Poupon on my sandwich and didn't notice... Are you sure?... That might have been a leaf over there... What do you think?... What do you think?"

McFearless said...

C,

Maybe that's it, I don't read stuff over there like I used to. I still think Prechter gets the last laugh, big surprise right, lol. I always get a kick out of BR talking about him, "I liked Precther's Perspective but...."

Dude has been more right than any other pundit for the last 10 years but they just can't get over that he missed the 90's.

I keep reminding myself when it comes to these pundits that Pride comes before the Fall.

DL said...

McF @ 2:31

Since opening the futures account 6 months ago, I've been shooting for small gains, but very limited market exposure, and hence low risk.

DL said...

McF,

I was following the stock market very closely back in 1987, and Prechter was "numero uno" back then.

DL said...

McF @ 2:35

"Pride cometh before the fall".

That's exactly what I was thinking at the end of 2008 when I was reading Steve Barry's comments

I-Man said...

DL you took the words right out of I mouth.

I-Man said...

Alright everyone, the trap is set...

Lets watch the first mouse get whacked...

McFearless said...

DL,

it was his own wave III in the 80's.

he's my personal American Idol.

McFearless said...

DL,

I know what you are saying about SB. he gotta a little over the top then. Whenever I do that feel free to put me in my place.

mcHAPPY said...

MarketWatch headline says:

"Crude oil posts healthy gains"

How can $85 oil be beneficial in a fragile 'recovery' we are supposedly in?

Headline should be:

"F*ck, oil is up again! And so is the G-damn inventory of the sh*t!"

McFearless said...

DL,

Where did you open your futures account out of curiousity?

Happy with it?

I have to do mine with ML, Scwab doesn't allow futures and those are the only other places I'm allowed to have accounts.

McFearless said...

@McHappy,

moving forward there is no sh*t, only sh**ty.

McFearless said...

I wish AT were around right now, this looks like a Z wave up here. choppy. You can force a five from the recent lows but I think Andy would agree you'd be forcing it.

A (Z) to end P2 folks. I still believe!!!!!

bob said...

Lots of news out tonight and before tomorrow.

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