TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 4.21.10 - What Could POSSIBLY Go Wrong?

Morning Audibles 4.21.10 - What Could POSSIBLY Go Wrong?

Today's thread is going to be a pictorial... Perhaps it'll end up "saying" a lot more than anything I could bang out on a keyboard... Who needs a keyboard anyway? AAPL has that covered for you... From what I understand, they've created an APP that pays your mortgage and all your other bills so all you need to do is just buy their latest "widg-i-mi-jig" (with your stock profits) and you're in PHAT city baby! Hey! You're even "doubling down" and adding while you're at it!

Ah yes... Sometimes life is good! Your team is winning, babes (or studs, as the case may be) are "sexting" you 24/7 on your super cool "widg-i-mi-jig", & the media are programmed (and paid) to shower you with "happy talk" forevermore (or at least until January 2013, or '17 as the case may be)...

It's times like that you ask yourself (in NOT a joking way)... "What Could POSSIBLY Go Wrong"?

231 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 231 Newer› Newest»

Nic said...: Great post today CV.

Greek, Spanish, Portugal bonds getting hit across the board this morning. Risk off in FX, commodity currencies hardest hit (along with EUR).; April 21, 2010 at 7:56 AM
Nic said...: I thought I read yesterday this market was bouncing back, hehe ... what could possibly go wrong? ...
Subprime Defaults to Soar:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=agHGvijV55fM&refer=us; April 21, 2010 at 8:04 AM
bob said...: Great post, that first picture reminded me of a store I used to drive by in the middle of nowhere-

Dick's gas, guns, groceries and guitars.

http://www.themusicoasis.com/items/warehouse-wonders~used-items-/dick-s-country-st-r-music-oasis-t-shirt-mo0001-detail.htm

I couldn't find a picture of the store of the sign, but I am going to order a t-shirt.; April 21, 2010 at 8:07 AM
bob said...: I was looking at a chart of EUR bond yields- right on low support.

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/bond-yield/?id=eur&type=since200; April 21, 2010 at 8:09 AM
Anonymous said...: wow-

those kids and the paint- what a disaster- but I am sure the kids were having a blast!

Not sure who is taking the picture- but I am certain it wouldn't be the baby sitter; April 21, 2010 at 8:21 AM
CV said...: @bob

Sole proprietor named "Dick" no less...

Pretty much says it all...

(I heard he struck it big though and went on to sporting goods)!; April 21, 2010 at 8:54 AM
Anonymous said...: Now airlines want bailout. "The head of AITA urged govts. to examine ways to compensate airlines for their lossess and said it would take the airline industry at least three years to recover". The Globe and Mail.

Who's next? May be passangers whose holidays were ruined. It's all govt.'s fault.; April 21, 2010 at 8:56 AM
Anonymous said...: @ bob. That paint picture. Reminds me of my sister. LOL.; April 21, 2010 at 8:58 AM
karen said...: morning! funny, cv, very funny! i still need my coffee, tho. i'll try to be careful with the beans.. futures were down much more several hours ago.. ha! that morning fantasy didn't last long.; April 21, 2010 at 9:20 AM
karen said...: Nic, interesting that bloomberg piece was from March 15.. wonder if the banks will be fessing up NEXT earnings season..; April 21, 2010 at 9:37 AM
Leftback said...: Crude down after the inventory report?
- anyone fancy a punt?; April 21, 2010 at 9:42 AM
AmenRa said...: These 1-min candles on the SPX look like a slugfest.; April 21, 2010 at 9:46 AM
CV said...: I have it handicapped that we actually do make a marginally higher print on $SPX...; April 21, 2010 at 9:48 AM
CV said...: But more likely later in the day...

This is shaping up very much like January...; April 21, 2010 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: fxp is up nearly 2% today..; April 21, 2010 at 9:52 AM
I-Man said...: Ugh...

Thanks for the comic relief.; April 21, 2010 at 9:52 AM
CV said...: I don't think they're going to be able to get it A LOT higher than just a marginally new high high on $SPX without help from XOM...

...and that move looks like it's in its conclusion stages...; April 21, 2010 at 9:53 AM
CV said...: @karen

I'm still holding my FXP...

I'm close to selling and taking profits, but I'm waiting (hoping) to see a "divergence" first...; April 21, 2010 at 9:54 AM
72bat said...: absolutely love the dead-on comment @tbp re fuld's sgt. schultz defense:
"DoctorOfLove Says:
It seems to me, if you plead the “I was a moron while I was CEO” you have to immediately give back all the money you got paid. Right then."
lmao - damn straight; April 21, 2010 at 9:57 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

Yeah - Today's post was MEANT to be a little comic relief...

BUT..... There is a serious side to it...

CV ponders (often), about the HUBRIS of the current Administration & current FED... The very notion that they are so ALL KNOWING & ALL SEEING...

That they can just sit there and pull policy out of their nether regions and it will all work out 24/7 & we'll all live happily ever after...

The media is more than happy to help them spill those ideas 24/7... And the "sheeple" (feeling powerless to do anything than ACCEPT what seems to be "all that glitters"), are more than happy to be led to the shearer...; April 21, 2010 at 9:59 AM
Leftback said...: Fuld was a lucky moron. Living the American Dream.

NO. Actually he was a DICK.; April 21, 2010 at 10:00 AM
Leftback said...: LB is thinking, the following:

JOHNNY Hour, then we get a BUILD and they have to sell crude and BUCKY catches a bid. That's what we are playing today.

May add to my hedge on the long bond into the close - PPI tomorrow.; April 21, 2010 at 10:02 AM
I-Man said...: EURUSD looks terrible.; April 21, 2010 at 10:03 AM
I-Man said...: Nic, care to share any longterm thoughts on cable?

One of my friends is looking to buy a flat over there, and I told her to wait, that the pound would likely continue to trade lower against the dollar for the next few month, but that I would check around for other opinions.; April 21, 2010 at 10:05 AM
Leftback said...: Be better off with a DISH, I-Man....; April 21, 2010 at 10:08 AM
CV said...: @LB

I wouldn't doubt that we see a BUILD in crude inventories (with all the mild weather recently & with happy voters just sitting on their asses collecting their PHAT unemployment checks from Uncle "zippity doo dah" Remus, I mean, Sam)...

"Nowhere to run to.... nowhere to DRIVE... Got nowhere to run to baby!" Come on! Sing along!; April 21, 2010 at 10:11 AM
McFearless said...: morning thoughts:

Andy thinks that the market will never top on bad news, this is something I'd generally agree with. That said, why treat the Goldman fraud charge as "bad news"? The only people angry about it are the same people that have been angry and talking about this stuff during the entire rally.

Outside of this GS issue, everything is bullish, economic data is improving, earnings, consumer spending, magazine covers, etc, even heard comments today, from MS I believe it was, "credit is back", the article RP spoke of in the Theorist where the WSJ on 4/7 says: "Dow 11,000 Is Only The Beginning". The list is long and lopsided.

The point is, I think it's a stretch right now to claim that the majority of news is not very bullish.

On the anecdotal side, in the trailing 30 day period I've had 37 f2f mtgs and in only 3 of them I was not asked about buying stocks now. I've also had 15 phone calls, on every call I was asked about buying stock, given an order to buy stock, or asked "Is it a good time to get back in now" which isn't really a question if you understand retail thinking.

I've heard claims recently that retail doesn't run the market. Wow, what insight! Retail never "ran the market", it's the psychology that matters and why it's worth discussion, and the "pros" aren't showing anything different, Mutual fund cash ratios being exhibit 1.618.

All that said, I suppose my thinking is wrong, I mean, all of the analysts raising price targets on Apple by $100 now must no for sure it wasn't that tax treatment that helped these numbers and analysts are hardly ever wrong. Right?; April 21, 2010 at 10:11 AM
McFearless said...: @anon,

yes, the airline bailout stuff is unreal isn't it. So there was a valcano that hurt business and somehow tax payers need to pick that tab up? I guess this would make sense considering some find vacations to be a right these days:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/04/european-union-commissioner-declares.html; April 21, 2010 at 10:14 AM
I-Man said...: @ Left

What like this?

Diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis?

Or this?

www.dishnetwork.com ?; April 21, 2010 at 10:17 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

you and AT make a good point- the top is in when no amount of good news sends the market higher-

I am going to roll out a bit later today- so everyone will have the pleasure of my company until at least noon-

you lucky people(-:!!; April 21, 2010 at 10:17 AM
I-Man said...: Its fun typing words into google and seeing what comes up.

Ok, I admit, my job isnt that thrilling.; April 21, 2010 at 10:18 AM
Mannwich said...: DirecTV, I-Man. Dish Network sucks.; April 21, 2010 at 10:20 AM
karen said...: ahab, i hope you aren'd donning your gnoht!; April 21, 2010 at 10:24 AM
CV said...: @McF

When you CROSS THE RUBICON of "moral hazard" (which you did on the FIRST BAILOUT), a the new benchmark is thus created...

From now until "kingdom come", the taxpayer will be asked to PONY UP for everything...

Actually, it was always like that in the first place, but the PRICE TAG just got a lot higher and the RISKS TAKEN will be greater and greater...

I hope everyone enjoys their cozy little real estate plot on this side of the Rubicon!; April 21, 2010 at 10:24 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and this is for Karen-

I just love lounging around in my thong underwear- need to get one of those I-Pad's though- my lap is getting a bit warm(-:!!; April 21, 2010 at 10:24 AM
McFearless said...: From Vadim @ EWI:

"There are financial experts out there who seem confident about the market's direction. The rest of us, well... We watch, we listen, we share our own viewpoints -- but ultimately, most of us follow. When stocks go up -- "they are buying!" -- we buy. When stocks go down -- "they are selling!" -- we sell. In the absence of information, we rely on behavior of others."; April 21, 2010 at 10:26 AM
Mannwich said...: I know I've been a major Apple skeptic, but I have to admit that the i-Phone MLB app has me spellbound. Watching live games on the i-Phone? And the picture is really clear? I have to admit that app is very slick.......

Now if they could just find a way to come up with a batter that stays charged longer.; April 21, 2010 at 10:26 AM
CV said...: I have a quick question for everyone reading here...

Which SINGLE STOCK (in all of your individual opinions), is the most RELEVANT to the DJIA...

Please, everyone offer up and answer...

Answer with a simple ticker symbol (no comments or anything)...; April 21, 2010 at 10:27 AM
I-Man said...: BAC

GE; April 21, 2010 at 10:28 AM
Brian the Broker's Shapely Assistant Tawny said...: C over 5.... it's CHEAP, JOHNNY.; April 21, 2010 at 10:30 AM
karen said...: ibm; April 21, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Mannwich said...: TLT looking mighty stout today.; April 21, 2010 at 10:31 AM
CV said...: XOM (my offering); April 21, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Mannwich said...: I would say GE as well.; April 21, 2010 at 10:31 AM
McFearless said...: In order:

JPM

XOM

WMT; April 21, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Mannwich said...: Good one, cv.; April 21, 2010 at 10:31 AM
karen said...: when c is 2.50 again, they can reverse split it.. hey, it can go to one and they can reverse split it to 5..; April 21, 2010 at 10:32 AM
McFearless said...: GE should probably be on that list, agree with those comments.; April 21, 2010 at 10:32 AM
McFearless said...: "when c is 2.50 again, they can reverse split it.. hey, it can go to one and they can reverse split it to 5.."

just like the short etf's lol!; April 21, 2010 at 10:32 AM
karen said...: well, i have the chart that says IBM, 3M, Chevron.. xom is seventh.; April 21, 2010 at 10:33 AM
karen said...: WMT is eleventh, laughing.. want the link?; April 21, 2010 at 10:34 AM
Anonymous said...: C; April 21, 2010 at 10:34 AM
Mannwich said...: This action today has me saying "hmmmmmmmm". The euphoria over Apple's blow out earnings maybe ringing the bell for the market top? Or at least getting close?; April 21, 2010 at 10:35 AM
McFearless said...: karen,

I think that makes sense from the perspective of what it does to the average and therefore the price of that average but I don't believe, for example, that 3m is more important than JPM.; April 21, 2010 at 10:35 AM
CV said...: I'm going to make this easier for anyone who is still contemplating (or wants to change their picks)... List to choose from...

3M
Alcoa
American Express
AT&T
Bank of America
Boeing
Caterpillar
Chevron Corporation
Cisco Systems
Coca-Cola
DuPont
ExxonMobil
General Electric
Hewlett-Packard
The Home Depot
Intel
IBM
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase
Kraft Foods
McDonald's
Merck
Microsoft
Pfizer
Procter & Gamble
Travelers
United Technologies Corporation
Verizon Communications
Wal-Mart
Walt Disney; April 21, 2010 at 10:35 AM
CV said...: Come on everyone... play along... (because I'm going to synthesize this into an argument later on)...

Something to do to pass the boredom; April 21, 2010 at 10:36 AM
karen said...: that was fun, you completely distracted me from inventories.. but if the market continues in this vein, i'll bake granola..

the dow link: http://www.indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html; April 21, 2010 at 10:37 AM
karen said...: sorry to have spoiled the game! i'm bad!; April 21, 2010 at 10:38 AM
I-Man said...: Woops...

I thought BAC was in the Dow.

Shows you what I know.

Seriously though, put up a longterm monthly chart back to 1990 and look at the price channel:

Connect the July 98 high to the Mar 09 low...

Connect the Aug 2000 high to the Sept 07 high...

Draw a midline from the Oct 99 candle to the Jan 04 candle.

Now, see how that looks?; April 21, 2010 at 10:38 AM
BuffaloT said...: CAT There is about 30 points of fluff in that puppy.; April 21, 2010 at 10:38 AM
CV said...: @karen

I know what you're getting at in nominating IBM (and you're correct in doing so)...

But that's not my question... (IOW - instead of "weighting" - which is, we know, by share price)...

Instead, I'm asking an OPINION as to what is REALLY most relevant... So people, you can change your votes if you wish (my bad for not making that clear)...; April 21, 2010 at 10:39 AM
I-Man said...: Those chart notes are for GE... (not BAC); April 21, 2010 at 10:39 AM
Leftback said...: Much better than contemplating ahab wearing a gnoht... TMI !!; April 21, 2010 at 10:40 AM
I-Man said...: And I followed you with "RELEVANT"...; April 21, 2010 at 10:40 AM
Leftback said...: GE

- a perfect synthesis - combines the fading industrial might of the USA with Ponzi finance economics.; April 21, 2010 at 10:41 AM
72bat said...: in the long run - wmt; April 21, 2010 at 10:42 AM
McFearless said...: Isn't the question what stock is relevant, not which one can push the average down the most?

Not trying to split hairs but doesn't it "mean" more if say JPM, or BAC were to have serious problems vs. something like CAT? (fwiw, I do think CAT is way too high)

As the banks go so goes the nation built on credit. that's my thinking.

@I

BAC is in the DOW.; April 21, 2010 at 10:44 AM
Leftback said...: CRUDE build as expected, now can BUCKY get going here..?; April 21, 2010 at 10:46 AM
Anonymous said...: C not part of the DJIA-

so new answer- let me think-

AAPL

lol; April 21, 2010 at 10:47 AM
McFearless said...: What are folks thoughts on LIBOR of late?; April 21, 2010 at 10:48 AM
CV said...: @MCF

That's my question... Which is MOST RELEVANT... Not which one (on a good or bad day has a greater influence in the INDICES)...

Basically what I'm asking is... "What's the "steady eddy-ist" (over time)?; April 21, 2010 at 10:48 AM
CV said...: or has been...?; April 21, 2010 at 10:48 AM
CV said...: @ahab

see list above (10:35); April 21, 2010 at 10:49 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and CV- clarify- how do you mean most relevent-

as a trend setter?

as most market value?

market volume?

indicative of strength/weakness of US economy?; April 21, 2010 at 10:50 AM
BuffaloT said...: @McFearless
Being that we are never going to get any real numbers from the likes of JPM since they have probably been insolvent for decades due to their derivatives book. CAT is going to to see their revenues implode when the global double dip takes hold.

You won't be able to FASB 157 that and then the jig is up.; April 21, 2010 at 10:51 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

my 10:47 was a joke(-:!!; April 21, 2010 at 10:53 AM
McFearless said...: @buffalo,

oh I agree with all of that no doubt. P3 will put that stock into single digits imo (cat).

C,

If the question is about "steady-eddy" I'd switch my list around and put WMT at the top.; April 21, 2010 at 10:55 AM
McFearless said...: test?; April 21, 2010 at 10:56 AM
CV said...: @ahab (10:50)

RELEVANT - Basically what I'm asking is...

"Which should be considered the most STEADY EDDY... The one which is NOT REALLY OVERPRICED, and therefore, if it cannot muster any strength for a further rally in share price, should we all look around and say "Uh-Oh" - something ain't right here...; April 21, 2010 at 10:56 AM
karen said...: CAT earnings, April 26. Full moon the 28th.; April 21, 2010 at 10:58 AM
McFearless said...: I'm not a pro on CAT's books but when China goes bust that will hurt them too.; April 21, 2010 at 11:00 AM
BinT said...: On this, the day Ma and Pa produced the consequences of a little interlude 9 months earlier, I will pick XOM.; April 21, 2010 at 11:01 AM
karen said...: based on previous 3 quarters falling earnings.. i'm not sure CAT should have a PE in the 47s.. AAPL's is 25, likewise, GOOG.; April 21, 2010 at 11:02 AM
BuffaloT said...: @CV

There are a few that fit that bill. PFE, WMT, XOM, JNJ. For the most parts they did not participate in the rally of 2009 particularly from the break upwards from 950 on the S&P in July. The fund managers who I use and refused to buy into this crap are hiding in these type of stocks because they have to be invested somewhat.; April 21, 2010 at 11:02 AM
Anonymous said...: wow- tough question-

what about those that have large foreign exposure- the truly global brands such as KO-

they don't need the US economy; April 21, 2010 at 11:04 AM
karen said...: here is the new 100 dollar bill.. they should make everyone exchange them.. but a good third are counterfeit.

http://www.newmoney.gov/newmoney/flash/interactive100/index.html; April 21, 2010 at 11:07 AM
karen said...: oh great.. SEC going after Capital Investment, now. Calls it a 900 mil ponzi scheme. Files separate civil complaint against ceo shapiro.; April 21, 2010 at 11:10 AM
Leftback said...: Karen, got a link for that?

Wanger is popular over at ZH, by the way....; April 21, 2010 at 11:11 AM
Leftback said...: Don't suppose a $900M Ponzi would make the market go down....?

Nah...; April 21, 2010 at 11:13 AM
Mannwich said...: Why are these just "civil suits"? Where the CRIMINAL charges? Until then, it's zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz for Mannwich.; April 21, 2010 at 11:18 AM
Anonymous said...: well . . .back on CV's post-

I think it would be safe to throw out the food, consumer goods and drug stocks- and work from there-

c'mon CV- throw me a bone- am I on the right track?

I need some encouragement(-:!!!; April 21, 2010 at 11:18 AM
karen said...: no link yet.. came across etrade from dow jones.. just one-liners..; April 21, 2010 at 11:19 AM
Mannwich said...: Fraud and theft on this kind of scale are not crimes anymore? What exactly is a crime then? Being a responsible citizen?; April 21, 2010 at 11:19 AM
CV said...: CV's thoughts on the "poll"

CAT (which went from $87 to $22 - and has recovered to HIGHER than "pre-Lehman") - Steady Eddy?

3M ($97 to $40, now almost at October '07 levels) - Steady Eddy?

GE ($60, in 2000, went down to $5 in March '09, still intertwined in finance) - Steady Eddy?

IBM ($135, in 2000, crashed down to $54 post dot.com, now trading at ALL TIME HIGHS) - Steady Eddy?

MSFT ($60, in 2000, traded down to $14 in March '09, now at October '07 levels) - Steady Eddy?

MCD (new ALL TIME HIGHS every day... However, did go from $45 down to $12 post dot.com... But now trading 15% ABOVE October '07 levels) - Steady Eddy? Bubble?

WMT (Still 15% lower than 2000 highs... Decade long WEDGE PATTERN there) - Steady Eddy?

JPM ($65, in 2000, traded down to $14 in March '09, now trading at "pre Lehman" levels) - Steady Eddy?

KO ($88, "pre-LTCM 1988", traded down to $37 in 2002 recession, recently got back to October '07 levels)...

XOM (Went BUBBLETASTIC from '02-'08 [Right before China Olympics]... When it 'crashed' though, it only gave back about 33% - Meaning: As BUBBLE as it got, it never got as "bubbly" as everything else)...; April 21, 2010 at 11:19 AM
McFearless said...: I don't think the SEC can do anything but a civil suit can they?; April 21, 2010 at 11:20 AM
karen said...: Treasury stake in GM: $2.1 billion preferred stock 60.8% common equity.

Whatever the hell that means! So GM is a majority owned government entity?; April 21, 2010 at 11:22 AM
72bat said...: from rep. marcy kaptur's letter to doj:
"While the SEC lacks the authority to act beyond civil actions, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has the power to file criminal actions against those who commit financial fraud. We ask assurance from you that the U.S. Department of Justice is closely looking at this case and similar cases to further investigate and prosecute the criminals involved in this, and other financially fraudulent acts. ....."; April 21, 2010 at 11:23 AM
Leftback said...: "What exactly is a crime then? Being a responsible citizen?"

Mannwich, we have reason to believe that you have espoused views concerning the valuations of the stock market. Anything you may say has already been eavesdropped on from black helicopters.

We therefore sentence you and recommend that you be taken from this place and hung from one of Lord Blankfiend's decorative bonsai, which are only four feet high, until you are bored and hungry....; April 21, 2010 at 11:23 AM
karen said...: good find, bat.. that clears up a lot for me.; April 21, 2010 at 11:24 AM
Leftback said...: Macro Man calling a possible top in the XLF today.
Robert Shiller discusses "mini-bubbles" in housing and stocks.

Can't wait to see who got ensnared in this latest Ponzi...

BTW, our last THREE modest hedges of our long bond positions have failed (including today). That's telling you there is DEMAND for the long end.; April 21, 2010 at 11:30 AM
Mannwich said...: True ben, but where the eff is the DOJ on some of these crimes? I know that it's easier to prove one's case in civil court, but there has to be at least one major case outside of Madoff that can be proven in criminal court, no?; April 21, 2010 at 11:31 AM
Mannwich said...: Where the fuck are you, Holder? What are you doing with your time?; April 21, 2010 at 11:32 AM
karen said...: don't look! C at low of of day and under 5..; April 21, 2010 at 11:32 AM
McFearless said...: @72,

Ok thanks for clearing that up. I thought that's how it worked but wasn't certain.

and yeah, to Manny's point.

Holder?

Holder?; April 21, 2010 at 11:35 AM
karen said...: more insanity:

MGIC Unveils Pricing Details Of $1B Stock, Debt Sale
9:46 AM ET 4/21/10 | DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG) unveiled details of its plans to offer at least $700 million in stock, a move that would raise shares outstanding by more than half, as well as $300 million of seven-year convertible senior notes.

The mortgage insurer, which announced the sales Tuesday, plans to use the proceeds to repay debt coming due next year and for other purposes including boosting the company's liquidity.

MGIC anticipates selling at least 65.1 million shares for $10.75 each, a 2.8% discount to Tuesday's close. The company has about 125 million outstanding. The company also is offering $300 million of seven-year convertible senior notes due 2017, which will carry a 5% coupon. The conversion rate is set at 74.4186 shares per $1,000 of notes--or $13.44 a share.

MGIC's stock was up 0.6% in early trading to $11.13 after falling 12% on news of the offering.; April 21, 2010 at 11:36 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Hey Manny,

Saw your comment earlier. I have Dish and am not really happy with it. Can you give me a brief idea why you think Direct TV is better?; April 21, 2010 at 11:36 AM
karen said...: 2 candles for sore eyes (unfortunately it's not the market close.) C and XLF; April 21, 2010 at 11:37 AM
72bat said...: karen -
it's from denninger's today which also has 8 minutes of bill black
bill black excoriating frbny, timmmaayy and uncle ben; April 21, 2010 at 11:38 AM
McFearless said...: Direct TV gets you the NFL ticket right?; April 21, 2010 at 11:38 AM
CV said...: And my "thesis is as follows"... I took 10 of the MOST NOMINATED stocks (the ones all of you offered)... That's 1/3rd of the entire DJIA (but the MOST IMPORTANT third, perhaps)...

Now look at the PRICE BEHAVIOR of these "industrials" based on their ALL TIME HIGH levels (which mostly correlated with the two PEAKS we've had in equities in 2000 and in 2007)...

Of these...

IBM is close to all time high, MCD "is" at all time high, JPM is near an all time high...

KO, MSFT, MMM are at October '07 levels

CAT is higher than "pre-Lehman"

WMT probably isn't going anywhere significant

GE is struggling mightily with finance...

XOM is hanging on because of $80 oil prices... While it hasn't yet reached it's '08 highs, it's hard to imagine it will (unless we see $150 a barrel oil again)... And we all know what THAT would do to the rest of the economy...

So basically, a great deal of these BEST OF THE DOW stocks that you all have nominated have recovered to the BEST LEVELS they have ever attained...

And this is with:

- ZIRP
- payrolls slashed to skeleton crews
- not yet facing higher taxes
- not yet accounting for bump in HC premiums
- dollar, perhaps, getting stronger
- little in the way of geo-political tensions
- "happy talk" 24/7 on TV

Can anyone say "Priced to Perfection"?

As the title of this THREAD says... "What could POSSIBLY go wrong?"; April 21, 2010 at 11:38 AM
McFearless said...: how about bill black saying that they (bankers) even put out word to kill him.

nuts.; April 21, 2010 at 11:39 AM
Mannwich said...: @Bruce: After a rocky start with DirecTV for the first 1-2 years, we've been very happy with the service the last 3 years or so. Ever since we had a guy come out and adjust our dish, we hardly ever have service interrupted anymore, except for during major storms. Mainly, I just think the programming is better and the service more reliable. My little gym just switched from Dish to DirecTV as well after having so many technical issues with them. Half the time the TV's and/or remote controls didn't work and Dish couldn't figure out why so the guy threw in the towel and made the switch. Not good.; April 21, 2010 at 11:41 AM
I-Man said...: @ C

If you get a chance, go back and tinker with the monthly GE chart and the area's mentioned in my 10:38.

You'll have fun with it.; April 21, 2010 at 11:41 AM
Anonymous said...: AA hasn't recovered; April 21, 2010 at 11:41 AM
Mannwich said...: That's right, ben. That was another reason we chose DirecTV. They also have MLB network. Don't think Dish has them.; April 21, 2010 at 11:41 AM
72bat said...: re jeff's " it's easier to prove one's case in civil court"..
civil case threshold = preponderance of evidence vs. criminal threshold = beyond shadow of doubt?; April 21, 2010 at 11:41 AM
Mannwich said...: He said that, ben? Wow. I believe it though.; April 21, 2010 at 11:43 AM
Mannwich said...: Exactly 72bat, but c'mon, Holder can't prove any of these obvious criminal cases in court beyond a reasonable doubt? If that's so, then they should resign their jobs now and let someone else take over.; April 21, 2010 at 11:44 AM
Anonymous said...: We need Nic to call the top-

all men stand aside-

CV's or b22's top just doesn't do it for me-

sadly- we are stuck w/ LB's bottom; April 21, 2010 at 11:44 AM
72bat said...: @ ben
"how about bill black saying that they (bankers) even put out word to kill him"
was this verified? else not, it casts his testimony in a nutcase light.; April 21, 2010 at 11:44 AM
Mannwich said...: Janet T. weighs in on GS. This shit isn't going away any time soon. The curtain has been pulled back and will stay pulled back for quite some time.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/janet-tavakoli-goldman-sachs-spinning-gold; April 21, 2010 at 11:46 AM
Leftback said...: I have long worried about opponents of the banksters being erased.

The RICO statutes will be used. The IBs are organized crime. What was LEH and GS/ACA if not organized and criminal?; April 21, 2010 at 11:47 AM
karen said...: Jeff that was an old c-span (?) Q&A...; April 21, 2010 at 11:47 AM
CV said...: Col. Nathan Jessup says...

"I eat breakfast 300 yards away from 4,000 Cubans who are trying to kill me"...; April 21, 2010 at 11:48 AM
Leftback said...: "sadly- we are stuck w/ LB's bottom"

A much admired LOW. Perhaps it will stand in history, perhaps not. But with the DEVIL'S NUMBERS and all, that surely was a suitable NADIR.; April 21, 2010 at 11:49 AM
CV said...: Flat Top (from Dick Tracy) says...

"I'm going to rub him out"...; April 21, 2010 at 11:49 AM
Mannwich said...: Really karen? Didn't know that. Thanks for the heads up.; April 21, 2010 at 11:50 AM
CV said...: @LB

Weird, but the DEVILS NUMBER has been coming up for me a lot as of late...

The other day I went to Wendy's for a chicken club sandwich (and the bill was $6.66)...

Then just this morning I looked at my INBOX (e-mail), and it said 666 UNREAD messages...; April 21, 2010 at 11:51 AM
Mannwich said...: It's still not going away any time soon. The lawyers will be very happy.; April 21, 2010 at 11:51 AM
Leftback said...: The Lafite squeeze is on:

Ch. Lafite-Rothschild up 300%; April 21, 2010 at 11:51 AM
McFearless said...: man, can't say for sure what this is and still considering it's just a b wave and we'll get a C to new highs but this action can't be very inspiring for bulls.; April 21, 2010 at 11:52 AM
McFearless said...: @72,

fair piont on black, maybe he was making it up, I don't know for sure, but I don't really find that hard to believe, after all, lots of money on the line here.

that said, some nut cases can bring to the table the most compelling stories.

@Manny,

skim the testimony black gave, it's pretty early on where he says they were trying to kill him.; April 21, 2010 at 11:56 AM
karen said...: SEC Charges Prominent Miami Beach Businessman in $900 Million Ponzi Scheme

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2010-63

Washington, D.C., April 21, 2010 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged a prominent Miami Beach-based businessman and philanthropist with fraud for orchestrating a $900 million offering fraud and Ponzi scheme.

http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-63.htm

ONLY link I can find!; April 21, 2010 at 11:56 AM
72bat said...: ben -
i agree. i hope it is true (not that i wish him harm) and verified, as it would undergird his cred; April 21, 2010 at 11:58 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Not sure if anyone mentioned it as I'm playing catch up but my vote would be CAT.; April 21, 2010 at 12:00 PM
karen said...: oh, FINALLY, bloomberg is running the story:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKPigK94dHdI&pos=7; April 21, 2010 at 12:00 PM
McFearless said...: This is just a rumor right now but I'm putting it up anyway because if it is true, the GIB continues to be validated:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/unconfirmed-rumor-british-airways-flight-twin-engine-shutdown-diverted-landing-ostende-belgi; April 21, 2010 at 12:01 PM
karen said...: Something tells me, this won't end well:

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co. is marketing bonds backed by auto loans at half the relative yield it paid six months ago and Nordstrom Inc. sold notes at its lowest rate ever as investors gain confidence that consumer spending is strengthening.

Ford, the only U.S.-based automaker to decline a federal bailout, is offering the largest portion of its $1.09 billion deal at yields as low as 20 basis points more than benchmark interest rates, half what investors demanded in November, a person familiar with the matter said. Seattle-based retailer Nordstrom sold $500 million of 10-year, 4.75 percent securities.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSuz3tbUF3zg&pos=4

those cars were sold with 0% financing.. this just doesn't add up.; April 21, 2010 at 12:03 PM
McFearless said...: from karen's link:

"diamond-studded handcuffs"

What, no sub?

Only real ponzi runners get subs.; April 21, 2010 at 12:03 PM
karen said...: Analysts comment on C earnings.; April 21, 2010 at 12:05 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

BTW - BAC "used" to be in the Dow... (but then again - so did Eastman Kodak)... among others BEFORE the era of BAILOUTS...

- Sears (90's)
- Bethlehem Steel, Woolworth's (early 90's)
- Goodyear, International Harvester (80's)
- Owens-Illinois, General Foods (80's)
- Johns-Manville, Chrysler (70's)

It gets funnier if you go all the way back to the Depression (and pre-Depression) era...

The bottom line is that here in America we have booted all these industries that produce food, building materials, and other manufacturing with...

Companies who manufacture DEBT INSTRUMENTS (and the computer hardware, software, and network systems needed to heap those debt instruments on the world at large and in the process account for their "bonuses" for the all the PROSPERITY they're creating in the process...

That's why they pay them the BIG BUCKS (and, I suppose, why their share prices have to be so high)...

I mean, SOME POOR SAP has to keep them in the lap of luxury, right?; April 21, 2010 at 12:08 PM
CV said...: @McF (12:01)

LOL- The AMOUNT REQUESTED for the airline bailout just "doubled", I think...:-)

"TAXPAYERS, please stow your tray tables, bend over and KISS YOUR ASSES GOODBYE!"; April 21, 2010 at 12:13 PM
CV said...: @karen

I dug up another ANALYSTS VIEW of Citi earnings; April 21, 2010 at 12:18 PM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll out-

all have a great day!; April 21, 2010 at 12:21 PM
karen said...: cv, where are you reading about airline bailouts?; April 21, 2010 at 12:23 PM
mcHAPPY said...: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/paulson-co-turns-bullish-on-economy-housing-2010-04-21

I believe these comments are hedged and insured somewhere along the way.

Ahhhh, or maybe this IS the insurance. Nothing like a plug from Johnny Paulson to get Johnny Bagholder on board.; April 21, 2010 at 12:26 PM
72bat said...: so far the forced landing rumor looks insubstantial, perhaps related to a tuesday report Tuesday 20 April 2010 | 23:07 OOSTENDE (DUTCH PRESS AGENCY)
have my fingers crossed for mydelta flight to london tomorrow evening; April 21, 2010 at 12:28 PM
DL said...: Speaking of bailouts, a lot of lefties are making hay out of the fact that GM is going to pay back $7B.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x151750

That’s all well and good, but my recollection is that the total amount of money given to the auto industry by Bush and Obama (including GM, GMAC and Chrysler), was well north of $50B.; April 21, 2010 at 12:28 PM
CV said...: @karen

Airline bailouts...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/airlines-losses-from-ash-cross-1-billion/article1539154/; April 21, 2010 at 12:30 PM
DL said...: CV @ 12:13

Obama may yet live long enough to see his dream of a 30% VAT tax.; April 21, 2010 at 12:30 PM
karen said...: UFB (from the link above),

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- John Paulson, the hedge fund manager famous for betting against subprime mortgage securities, is now bullish on the U.S. housing market and the economy. During a conference call with investors Wednesday, Paulson said he was concerned earlier this year about a potential double-dip recession. "I'm not concerned about that at all today," he added. It's more likely there could be a V-shaped recovery, Paulson continued. House prices have stabilized and could climb 8% to 10% nationwide in 2011, Paulson said. Corporate earnings are coming in ahead of expectations, the stock market is stronger and there's a vibrant credit market. With the "final leg" of a rising housing market, "the outlook for 2011 could be very strong," Paulson said.; April 21, 2010 at 12:34 PM
karen said...: Wonder if his change of mind also affects his views on gold?; April 21, 2010 at 12:35 PM
DL said...: Karen @ 12:34

I don't know; someone with a 5-year time horizon could do worse than owning XHB, I would think.; April 21, 2010 at 12:38 PM
CV said...: @DL (12:30)

See... IN A STRANGE TWIST OF FATE...

CV "likes" the idea of a VAT tax...

Nothing would make me happier than to see Ritholtz have to pay 30% more for his boat...

My bowl of spaghetti (and the tomato sauce that comes from the tomatoes I grow), doesn't cost me a penny more...

Hell, if BR's "tax donation" goes to pay for some FREE SERVICE I can get from the government, I'm happy...

SOCIALISM, in fact, doesn't hurt my lifestyle one iota...; April 21, 2010 at 12:39 PM
karen said...: Foreclosures are Pigs with Lipstick.; April 21, 2010 at 12:40 PM
DL said...: CV,

Yeah, I don't quite understand Ritholtz on the tax issue.; April 21, 2010 at 12:40 PM
CV said...: @DL

Ritholtz = I'm a big fat famous guy now with a lot of "liberal" types paying fees to me... So I have to conform my rhetoric to the "party line" so I don't piss them off...

Whores work on certain "streets"...

ESCORT SERVICES, OTOH...; April 21, 2010 at 12:46 PM
I-Man said...: Paulson is a sleaze.; April 21, 2010 at 12:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Little jealous of Barry? Want to be a celebrity?
Sounds like it.; April 21, 2010 at 12:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Just catching up-

MCF,

DVT is very good in some ways. Picture and choice are way above the rest.

Watch your bill like a hawk. I signed up over the internet, took screen shots of everything, and had a guy show up with a contract for a 2 year agreement instead of the one year. Of course he tried this after the thing was on my roof. I wouldn't sign and he had to call his supervisor...long story short I got what I signed up for.

Also, if you order a sports package, they re-bill you for it the following year, automatically. Make sure you cancel, and take note of the rep and time date of the call to cancel. They tried to bill me for the NCAA package 3 times this spring after I told them to cancel in December.

Summed up, great TV service, very bad customer service.

bob; April 21, 2010 at 1:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Sorry, that should have been for Bruce.

bob; April 21, 2010 at 1:06 PM
CV said...: @anon

I absolutely DON'T want to be a celebrity (NEITHER DO YOU - EVIDENTLY)...

My point is this...

BR 'made' his celebrity status on account of CALLING OUT this system of 'bailouts' for the farce it was...

Supposedly he "called" the bottom (though the records actually show that he was EARLY on that call and Fusion is, in fact, UNDERPERFORMING other models...

But right now, he's VERY QUICK to beat his chest and talk about the:

- boats he's buying
- Congressional inquires he's asked to testify at
- "happenings" in the Hamptons
- Ferrari's that pull up along side him and ask if he has any GREY POUPON

At the same time, he seems to DEFEND most policies that come out from this Administration (even though those SAME policies are arguably EXACERBATING the crisis that he previously CALLED OUT)... As long as his "positions" are benefitting from it... OK by him...

Some day, the tables are going to turn again... & BR is probably an ASTUTE enough trader to know when to GET OUT...

So my question is, "What will be his rhetoric at that moment in time"?... Will this Administration ALL OF A SUDDEN start doing stupid things? Answer: No? (they have been doing stupid things all along)... Stupider than the things BR "made his fame" calling out...

The only difference now?

It conforms to his ability to collect fees and make money...

It'll be ENTERTAINING to see the change in rhetoric when the tide goes out...

To THIS observer, it's about as TWO FACED as one can get...

As for you, you'll be able to watch from the standpoint of ANONYMITY (so that ought to be convenient)!; April 21, 2010 at 1:06 PM
Mannwich said...: @bob: I TOTALLY agree with your summation on DirecTV. Terrible customer service. Ridiculouslly hard to reach a person on the phone when you need one, even for technical issues. Thankfully, I haven't had any lately. The automatic billing on the sports packages is indeed annoying but seems commonplace now.; April 21, 2010 at 1:06 PM
I-Man said...: I just want to be I-Man.; April 21, 2010 at 1:06 PM
I-Man said...: But it would be cool if the anon got a handle... even if it was "anon1" or something.; April 21, 2010 at 1:08 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

How do we know that YOU, my friend are not ACTUALLY just an ANONYMOUS poster (posing as "I-Man")?; April 21, 2010 at 1:11 PM
CV said...: See actually this is just an ANONYMOUS BLOGSITE (posing as Survivor Capital)...; April 21, 2010 at 1:12 PM
karen said...: I just made the following post at TBP. It took some time to gather the data so FYI:

Prior to filing for personal bankruptcy, individuals max out every credit card they possibly can.

Jan ‘10 PBs were 102,254 (up 15% from Jan 09)*
Feb ‘10 PBs were 111,693 (up 14% from Feb 09)*
Mar ‘10 PBs were 149,268 (up 23% from Mar 09)*

However, the Federal Courts reported 158,141 March 2010 PBs, a 35% rise from Feb 2010, and 19% over March 2009.

Between this and strategic defaults/renters living rent free in defaulted investment properties.. i rest my case on increased consumer or retail spending.

*data from American Bankruptcy Institute; April 21, 2010 at 1:12 PM
I-Man said...: How do you know I'm not Leftback?; April 21, 2010 at 1:13 PM
72bat said...: i-man -
my preference/suggestion would be for no one here to respond to any "anon" comment.; April 21, 2010 at 1:13 PM
CV said...: @anon

Lob me up another softball so I can hit it out of the park and off the steers ass, and win myself a free steak...; April 21, 2010 at 1:14 PM
I-Man said...: I can jive with that, Bat.

:); April 21, 2010 at 1:14 PM
72bat said...: i-man -
touche ;^); April 21, 2010 at 1:15 PM
karen said...: LOL !! "I absolutely DON'T want to be a celebrity (NEITHER DO YOU - EVIDENTLY)..."; April 21, 2010 at 1:16 PM
Anonymous478.631 said...: All you suckers can go to hell.; April 21, 2010 at 1:17 PM
Barrie Rittholtz said...: Pardon me, my good man, do you have any GREY POUPON?; April 21, 2010 at 1:18 PM
Eye-Mon said...: How do you know I'm not I-Man?; April 21, 2010 at 1:19 PM
Leftback said...: Personally I think "anon" comments are tedious and annoying.; April 21, 2010 at 1:19 PM
I-Man said...: I know nothing.; April 21, 2010 at 1:20 PM
Leftback said...: Be interesting, be funny or F*CK OFF.....; April 21, 2010 at 1:20 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I-Man:

I know you are not Leftback. Leftback says things like,"Preggers" while you, you know where the Dragon is.; April 21, 2010 at 1:20 PM
Mannwich said...: Great post, karen. Hopefully BR responds in some fashion.; April 21, 2010 at 1:20 PM
karen said...: LUV THIS! or, maybe there really is a god!

Germany's BayernLB says it has cut ties to Goldman
Wed Apr 21, 2010 12:59pm EDT
FRANKFURT, (Reuters) - German landesbank BayernLB [BAYB.UL] said on Wednesday it cut ties to Goldman Sachs (GS.N) in response to U.S. regulatory action against the Wall Street bank, the first sign of a loss of business in Germany.

http://www.reuters.com/article/fundsFundsNews/idUSWEB125220100421; April 21, 2010 at 1:20 PM
karen said...: sorry, i need to curb my exclamations, laughing.. i am not shrill, just enthusiastic.; April 21, 2010 at 1:22 PM
I-Man said...: You could never be shrill to me Karen...; April 21, 2010 at 1:22 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: The only really interesting thing I saw at the noon hour here is that our boy, Lloyd, is going to testify in front of congress. That should produce some giggles..; April 21, 2010 at 1:23 PM
DL said...: Karen @ 1:20

Is GS a short here?; April 21, 2010 at 1:23 PM
CV said...: @Anonymous478.631

I wouldn't want to GO TO HELL... Please don't banish me to hell!

Why?

Because I've heard that there are ANONYMOUS SUCKERSthere...

It's like the ultimate "3" of "3" scenario!; April 21, 2010 at 1:23 PM
karen said...: In followup to my above post, I want to reference this NY Times article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/02/business/economy/02bankruptcy.html

The last line is priceless, “People use their tax refunds to pay their attorney fees,” she said.; April 21, 2010 at 1:27 PM
DL said...: CV,

Leftback says (@1:20) that we have to be interesting or funny.

Is that the policy?

What about boring comments?; April 21, 2010 at 1:29 PM
karen said...: I prefer the third option, myself, with or without the OFF.; April 21, 2010 at 1:31 PM
I-Man said...: That was a real knee slapper, K.; April 21, 2010 at 1:32 PM
mcHAPPY said...: "Be interesting, be funny or F*CK OFF....."

With that mcHAPPY has to find a new blog. Take care everyone.; April 21, 2010 at 1:37 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Sorry folks. Just couldn't stay away, not even for a day, so this cat came back....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSorJ-SMO4M; April 21, 2010 at 1:39 PM
CV said...: This about sums up CV's views on ANON comments; April 21, 2010 at 1:40 PM
Unknown said...: Sorry folks. Just couldn't stay away

you were gone for like two minutes -- how far did you get? the washroom?; April 21, 2010 at 1:41 PM
Nic said...: Hey I-Man
I had to take a break, one of those days :(
Cable has a good bid under it this week and I am bullish through the elections but longer term (rest of this year) I am a dollar bull and I would not be surprised to see 1.30 cable this year.; April 21, 2010 at 1:42 PM
karen said...: 6.2 just jostled Samoa..; April 21, 2010 at 1:43 PM
Leftback said...: DL, that's OK, we like your boring comments.

Karen, we are in awe, Mistress....; April 21, 2010 at 1:44 PM
Nic said...: I like your post at TBP, Karen; April 21, 2010 at 1:44 PM

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