4.21.10 - Part Deux (ANON Free Zone)

Did you say FREE?

117 comments:

bob said...

Nic

Who is the CB that is rumored to have been buying at the low in the EURUSD? Any ideas? Wild speculation?

Jean-Claude Trichet said...

You got a problem with that?

bob said...

JCT, if it was you- Why? You seem to want a lower currency, just like the rest of the world.

How everyone depreciates against everyone else is a just a technicality.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Why not put the picture of the brunette with the open blouse as the header for part deux? The salt mine is opening for the afternoon and I have run out of political jokes...

I-Man said...

1206.75 should hold...

CV said...

@bob

The dollar kept looking like it was going to 'double bottom' as well... then kept falling...

"Things always are always darkest THE MOMENT BEFORE they turn pitch black"...

CV said...

@I-Man

I would hardly be surprised to see a mover right to 1213.92 into the close...

I'd kind of hinted that this morning...

72bat said...

@ BnT
agree. of them all, that was the one where i couldn't possibly care what went "wrong"

karen said...

C at low of day.. 4.95, red bearish engulfing and confirmation candle formed, but don't look.. it won't last anyway : )

Bruce in Tennessee said...

''Here's some good news. Barack Obama announced he's bringing home troops from Iraq. That's right. Unfortunately, he couldn't get them direct flights home. They have a two-year layover in Afghanistan.''

...ouch.....

I-Man said...

I dont know C, I'm feeling a little cliff divey...

CV said...

@Bruce

How about the "Apple Girl" instead? (foto)

CV said...

@Bruce

"Barack Obama announced he's bringing home troops from Iraq"

But that was BEFORE the Iceland volcano eruptions...

Now? Shucks! All the flights are grounded :-(

karen said...

CV, blogspot seems to lock up around 179, to me. i could be wrong..

mcHAPPY said...

ANyone who did not watch the Bill Black clip, it is a must watch. I'll link it again:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2224-A-Sober-Warning-To-The-GOP-And-The-Democrats.html

BUT HERE IS THE ONE YOU SHOULD REALLY WATCH to see our mainstream media at is finest (notice the subject matter - Citi - and how quick they are to get him off the air):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZInuwa9lwk

karen said...

From a reader "plane from boekarest to brussels missing. Air traffic has just been suspended. all over the radio here in Belgium."

karen said...

the above was a ZH twitter.. in my haste i didn't copy whole thing.

mcHAPPY said...

Could you imagine having a guest like Bill Black and cutting him off after 2:35? Journalists use to love stuff like this but since they are now only mouthpieces for their advertisers, me thinks not.

Nic said...

Bob
It is usually Korea or China protecting their currency. They usually sell 150pips higher too.

CV said...

@I-Man

Take a look at the new chart I just added to the THREAD

That's what I see possibly "in development" at the moment...

The "notion" of which is being challenged by this momentary blip down... But it's still on the table if you ask me...

Because? Even if the HIGHS are not challenged, the same PRICE CHANNEL could be forming...

Tyler said...

ANyone who did not watch the Bill Black clip, it is a must watch. ... BUT HERE IS THE ONE YOU SHOULD REALLY WATCH if you have ~45mins sometime soon, watch the Black interview that BR posted a couple of weeks ago. I thought it was the best I've seen from him.

Leftback said...

The debates on TBP seem to become politicized very rapidly, as though half the people on there work for RAHM EMANUEL and the others for SARAH PALIN. I just can't bring myself to get involved with that kind of nonsense. Kudos to Karen and a few others for actually talking facts and figures on the issue. Barry is in an odd place - does he really think the world is back to normal or is he pressured to NOT APPEAR WRONG?

Barry seems to want to defend LOWER END mortgagors who stopped paying, when the real scum-bags are the HIGHER END squatters, many of whom worked in the construction, mortgage and RE biz and started this problem in the first place (oh yes - we know you're out there!).

CV said...

@karen

179 sounds about right... For me, I got to about 188 before it locked up (but it's always in that zone)...

Anyway, I know how to DEAL WITH IT now...

CV said...

I'm a RESULTS guy...

Leftback said...

Bill Black - great guy, worth a listen, but everything in those interviews is now widely known to this group, apart from JOHNNY, that is....

Tyler said...

linky

mcHAPPY said...

@Tyler

Did you notice how how quickly the guy ended the interview when Black talked about 60% of the mortgages at Citi being sold to Fannie and Freddie that DID NOT meet Citi guidelines, despite Citi's assertion the mortgages did? If true, that is FRAUD.

Tyler said...

in regards to the retail sales debate, does anyone have a link to MC Spending Pulses' definition of its luxury cat.? I can't find one. ... personally, I'm curious about whether iDocuhe type devices fall within that realm

72bat said...

karen -
would think that sort of rumor would show up quickly here @ professional pilots rumor network
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news-13/
don't see it posted yet.

CV said...

@LB

"does he really think the world is back to normal or is he pressured to NOT APPEAR WRONG?

Answer: Clearly, to me, he is pressured to NOT APPEAR WRONG...

Don't get me wrong... I like BR & I like (most), of the stuff he puts out (in terms of THREADS, not comments), on his blog...

But I'm not going to hesitate to call him "two faced" for talking all day & night about his escapades with the GREY POUPON crowd, and the fact that he's SOLD OUT his "Ratigan-esque" anger at the establishment for a quick buck...

karen said...

Tyler, interesting point! mcHappy, that part shocked me as well!

Tyler said...

its modis operandi of the MSM to cut people off when they start talking facts/truth ... it kinda juxtiposes too much with the cheerleading.. you know, got to keep the message straight...rah rah rah folks. nothing to see here. move all. buy stocks.

Nic said...

Karen ...
Before I was a trader I was an Air traffic controller in London. When I was young and foolish I did a season as a wingwalker on top of an aerobatic aircraft on the airshow circuit. I consider myself a bit of a risk taker.
Even if Brussels let all the airlines fly again I probably would not get on one in Europe right now.

Tyler said...

^ err, message on point ... same thing, you knew what I meant

karen said...

bat, it's there now, at your site.. ash engine damage but landed safely.

"I cannot reveal sources for fear of reprisals in my line of work, but a 747 has definatly landed with engine damage in Ostend.... As said, the original post was the first rumblings, all info since had come from a very well placed source. Unsure on other details but it has impacted where I work, flying seems to have been halted again."

Tyler said...

and speaking of ipads and kitten's Karen, hope you haven't yet seen this (it did go viral, so perhaps you have already)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9NP-AeKX40

CV said...

@Nic

CV would suggest that all of those airline execs (who are 'complaining' about the lost revenues from grounded flights and begging for bailouts) all board their planes and do some flying around to see whether or not the governments have any legitimate reason to shut down traffic... :-)

karen said...

Nic, you are amazing! a wing walker! what an experience, as well as being an air traffic controller : )

DL said...

Nic @ 2:27

Air traffic controller.... interesting

wingwalker.... VERY interesting.

I would venture to guess that both of those experiences have made you a better trader.

karen said...

Tyler.. had not seen that.. i want one more and more.. !! laughing.

CV said...

@Nic

Is that how they do air traffic controlling in Europe?

They put you guys on WINGS to get a birds eye view of the landscape? :-)

CV said...

Close your eyes, readers, and picture NIC on the wing of an airplane doing a "street cop" routine...(waving planes around)...

Nic - you must have a HELLUVA loud two finger whistle!

Leftback said...

We have an adrenaline junkie in our midst.... how surprising..!
Nic, ATC must help you keep all those pairs trades in the air.

Tyler, the TRUTH has been an early casualty of the GOVERNMENT SQUEEZE, sorry, I mean, V-SHAPED RECOVERY.

Karen, any confirmed non-payers of monster mortgages show up in your immediate area yet?

72bat said...

karen -
same rumor i linked to our previous thread here, partially debunked further on at PPRuNe

Leftback said...

Last comment on BARRY, I believe if we have a 15% breakdown in SPX he will suddenly be more BEARISH than YOGI. He likes to be on the winning team, which is understandable.

I-Man said...

If Monday's gap aint defended better than this, then 1180's by the close.

mcHAPPY said...

@I

Me hopes! My FAZ position nearly got stopped out today by .06. Now I am nearly green. FXP continues a slow and steady ascent.

I-Man said...

Watch XLF and KBE...

Leftback said...

Early on, we did have a flattener, now Ts are rallying across the board:

2-Year 100.000 1.00%
10-Year 99.047 3.74%
30-Year 100.172 4.61%

LB expecting some strong dollar moves overnight. I mean, other than a f*cking HOT AIR BALLOON, what could be keeping the EUR up?

karen said...

bat, okay, i give up on the whole thing.. but that web-site is interesting! i emailed it to my pilot friend.

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yge311sFhC8

Jump you fuckers.

Leftback said...

JNK is not selling off, by the way, peeps are buying bonds of all stripes. Is this the beginning of a rotation out of equities by some big money?

Leftback said...

It usually pays to fade the strong moves in interest rates in either direction. A trading range in 10y Ts lately has been between 3.71 - 3.88% so we are getting there.

This analysis assumes no massive global meltdowns.

Tyler said...

I mean, other than a f*cking HOT AIR BALLOON, what could be keeping the EUR up?

Revelation that Bernanke and Geithner are having an affair?

Leftback said...

Not even that.

OK, have to fly for a while, not in a plane. Back for the close.

I-Man said...

I almost choked on my lunch, Tyler.

72bat said...

karen -
the guys on that website brook no b.s. for sure.
& u can be sure i am following closely any and all rumors on transatlantic air traffic today thru take-off tomorrow

Tyler said...

Jump you fuckers.

http://www.forexhowto.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/cartoon.gif

Nic said...

I'm sure its Korea or China. If the dollar goes up so does their currency and EUR is the biggest component of the dollar index.

Copper is down 4 out of 5 days and Aussie having a bad day too. Bids under gold and silver (unfortunately for me) but they are at trendline resistance now.

Why does this feel like last August? and I have the same anxiety too.

karen said...

from TBP:

Bullish Bear Says:
April 21st, 2010 at 2:13 pm
I work in an Asset Management firm. We get lots of research — ISI, Rosenberg, Bianco, Ned Davis.

The ISI economic data has been dead on. This morning, they point out that

-Trucking company sales surveys up 9 consec weeks
-Tech company sales surveys strongest on a decade
-Philly Coincident Index increased significantly
-82% of SPX cos beat results — best % since 1993
-State tax receipts up since mid 2009.

The MV guys are right — the permabears are fighting this tooth and claw.

Leftback said...

Bids under gold and silver (unfortunately for me)

Likewise .... :-(

CV said...

CV has to check out as well...

See you all in Amen Ra's Daily Candle Wrap...

(Which I'm thinking about asking AMEN to re-name it the "Amen Corner")... After all, he is the MASTER... and we could stick a real nice logo with too :-)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Nic,

You and I have a lot in common! You were a wing walker, and I like chicken wings! Amazing!

You were an air traffic controller, and I have probably been on a flight that you put us in an endless holding pattern! Amazing again!

...I may have to go on Maury with this....

CV said...

Whadda ya think here Amen?

Do I go with the 8 iron, or hit a choke down 7?

karen said...

Here is a treat, Don Coxe's April Basic Points. I used to listen to his weekly broadcast when it was available years ago. Never been to marketfolly.com before, need to bookmark it.

Nic said...

BinT
I used to be young once too, I need a trip to the salt mine to "rejuvenate" if we are going on Maury.

mcHAPPY said...

@Tyler

Sad but true on the cartoon.

72bat said...

there ya go, nic. maybe bruce's salt mine could give us all a survivor capital group discount after which we could recuperate at cv's farm. think though that you are probably among the most junior here with least need.

Nic said...

Bill Black is amazing, thanks for the link

mcHAPPY said...

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/36689228/1

Can anyone tell me what happened to the "old signs" of housing stabilizing?

Also, this article is basically stating, "Things are getting less bad." That is so second half of 2009. Next thing you know they'll bring back the green shits, er, shoots.

Nic said...

What's the S&P stuck on? The 50% retrace of this weeks high/low. C'mon people SELL, we can break that.

karen said...

on deck:

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Time (ET) Release For Actual Briefing
Forecast Market
Expects Prior Revised
From
8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/17 -- 440K 450K 484K
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 04/10 -- 4600K 4600K 4639K
8:30 AM PPI Mar -- 0.7% 0.5% -0.6%
8:30 AM Core PPI Mar -- 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
10:00 AMExisting Home Sales Mar -- 5.30M 5.28M 5.02M
10:00 AMFHFA Home Price Index Feb -- -0.2% -0.2% -0.6%

I-Man said...

I shoulda known better.

I'm done.

Mannwich said...

Just talked to a friend of mine who is re-doing our upstairs bathroom (we don't have a floor level bathroom), which serves as our main AND master bathroom. He was just here with the electricians and plumbers spec'ing out the project. He is trying to sell a tiny house nearby as a flip that he bought for $95K and fixed up (he actually did a nice job) to flip for $198K or so. He's saying he heard from his realtor that everything on home buying front here in the Twin Cities has gone "silent". Apparently there's a lull right now out there right now. I'm wondering if this is due the uncertainty surrounding the expiring home credit and how they merely pulled most of the demand forward in housing, leaving the potential for a tiny amount of buyers for the rest of the season and beyond? Something to ponder.

mcHAPPY said...

Sported too much wood. FAZ retreats. I never learn.

I-Man said...

I'm just going to keep my mouth shut, I'm just about over all this shit.

I'm not even trading, why do I care?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Nic,

Even though this is my birthday, as remembered for over 1 year by Karen with the fantastic memory, my wife tells me that mentally I am still stuck at 8 years old. We will do fine on Maury..

Leftback said...

Bruce, it comes with the chromosome, my friend. LB has matured to at least twelve...

karen said...

i'm looking at a number of tickers.. friday was a big distribution day, to my eye.

Leftback said...

Morgan Stanley gains on fixed income trading... LOL..

They are getting FREE MONEY to buy Ts. How can they not make money? PLUS they are part of the Broker-dealer racket...

LB thumbs his nose at the HOUSE OF THE ARAB.

McFearless said...

I'm back, what happened? Only skimmed the comments, so that ZH link on the plane wasn't a rumor?

Again, GIB. Seriously.

72bat said...

@ ben
no, it was a largely unfounded rumor.
same rumor i linked to our previous thread, debunked here PPRuNe

McFearless said...

ah, thanks 72. I thought it was more rumorish when ZH put it up today, that would have been all over the news you'd think.

McFearless said...

Not sure if David Singer reads this blog but a shout out to him. Not sure if you guys remember but he did a chart of IYR at least 6-7 months ago it seems looking for a $55 handle. That's pretty close and I, for one, did not think it would get there.

Nice call DS.

Leftback said...

This probably accounted for the strength in US Ts today:

Failed 30y bund auction

karen said...

okay, won't be slitting my wrists this evening with gs and c both red enuf.. pilates instead : )

looking at C 5 min candles.. what was that at 3:50? a bad tick?

weird day.. two interesting posts on that mort delinquency topic at tbp from lamont and maspablo if anyone is is as fixated on it as i am:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/more-on-delinquencies-retail-spending/

Leftback said...

No Bond Report until later.. much later.

Have a great evening, everyone. Stay on the ball, K.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

Now that is an upgrade!

karen said...

lol over sbux earnings! no kidding! remember my live blogging from the sbux in carmel valley that morning a few months ago? no one working, everyone networking and hanging out..

AmenRa said...

CV

That sounds cool.

Anonymous said...

blue & white weekend at PSU, anyone else going?

I'll be at the Saloon Friday night with a Grape Monkey Boy.

http://www.happyvalley.com/posts.php?id=1572

McFear/B22/BEAR

Anonymous said...

Karen,

3:00 pm.

Just so I understand correctly, data that has been right, will be right? Cool.

Also, I work at an asset management firm. I get lots of research and.......most of it is useless.

Now I'm just

-BEAR

Leftback said...

Have a blast McF.

Karen, I take your point about delinquency and retail but in my view the 800 pound gorilla in the room is TAX REFUNDS. Watch the retail green shoots turn brown once the summer heats up.

No more tax returns, no more easy comps. Stick a fork in it.

karen said...

LB, I don't disagree with the notion of tax refunds kicking the spending number higher.. and exactly because of that, the number won't be maintained in the coming months.. and remember, i also noted the "expert" opinion in the nytimes piece, that tax refunds paid the attorney bankruptcy fees.

72bat said...

lb -
tend to agree...
i received 100% refund for 2009
but then that's only anecdotal evidence, right?

Leftback said...

BUCKY, USTs and GOLD strong together today... GREEK CAPITAL FLIGHT?

karen said...

ben, yeah, somehow this quote doesn't apply to ISI data:

Data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Leftback said...

A lot of dynamics came together to boost retail.

Warmer weather, tax refunds and the old "pent up demand", not to mention the specter of FLATION.....

Mannwich said...

Mannwich and Mrs. Mannwich got back a nice hefty return as well. How do you think we're paying for that new renovated bathroom? We're doing our own small part to keep the "recovery" going. ;-)

karen said...

i got refunded, too, both fed and state.. altho, i just let it be applied to 2010 estimated.. i picked a good year to not make any money.. got 1000 credit for each son in university (the american recovery act?).. got to deduct thousands in medical expenses..

BinT said...

Anecdote alert:

Saw a very attractive young realtor in the office yesterday. Long term patient. Husband is drug detail bubba. Last year at this time, she told me her primarily land real estate business was doing fine. Not so now. She is looking for another job. And again, so many of the realtors in this area were severely affected, but this gal was not, until the last 3-4 months. FWIW.

karen said...

LB, retailers are also offering unbelievable discounts.. that is when i succumbed..

Leftback said...

Karen,

You succumbed? In what manner, might one inquire..?
What if LB offered an unbelievable discount on his admiration of K .... ??

LB got to deduct nada, bupkis, zip, jack, diddly squat.

karen said...

BinT, anecdotally, i know what is going on with RE in my area.. so i am flabbergasted at Paulsen's change of stripes..

http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2010/04/21/another-real-estate-skeptic-turns-bullish/63235/

That said, if this idea takes flight, it may offer me an excellent window to sell my own home if I have to.. then a renter or a traveler, i will be.

Mannwich said...

I'm with you, karen. I'm rooting for Paulson to be right. Would sell this place and rent again. Home ownership is overrated. Vastly so, unless you have kids and are deeply rooted to a place.

Mannwich said...

OK, outta here. Gotta get outside today.

Anonymous said...

Our total tax bill both personal and business was also low this year, but I still owed, just less than normal.

It seems to me though in reviewing probably about 25-30 09 returns of clients this year that with various credits that average refund in my practice was about 25% larger than 2008.

No clue how you quantify that into consumer spending but of course any recent surge in spending has some to do with it.

Just throwing this out there but if you ever want to understand how BR approaches statistics you should read the book The Numbers Game by Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot. Really good book.

b22/McFear

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 4.21.10

Risk-off day and the Treasury curve was shallower, as long bonds were well bid. Some of this may have been caused by a failed 30y bund auction in Germany (where else?), and continued weakness in the govies of southern european olive oil and wine producing nations.

Corpies: LQD 0.35%; AGG 0.17%; JNK 0.08%; HYG 0.01%;
Govies: TLT 0.82%; IEI 0.14%; TIP 0.31%

We hedged again - after this large move down in yields, a rebound seems likely.

I-Man said...

"Also, I work at an asset management firm. I get lots of research and.......most of it is useless. "

I dont know if that was the anon, or Bear22, but...

x100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

72bat said...

just received email reminder from delta to check-in online. looking good for the london flight tomorrow.

Leftback said...

I-Man,

Read LB's exchange with Right Field at Macro Man. Why do these self-important tossers always appear at Market Tops?

Anonymous said...

I,

it was me, and I like the Bear22 thing.

What I said is Truth!

you and I both know it.

b22/Bear22/McFearless

Nic said...

Karen
I read the Paulson interviews and thought the same. However just because he called the mortgage market right doesn't mean he is always right. He underperformed the beginning of the year ... just saying he he might be playing catchup now in equities like a lot of others.

DL said...

Re Right Field/Leftback,

I'm actually somewhat positively disposed towards the equity market over the next three trading sessions.

I-Man said...

Shit! How did I forget to read MM today?!

I'm losing it with this cold I got...

karen said...

new thread up!

I-Man said...

Guess I'll shuffle over there then...

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