I'm not going to add anything to Andy's comments from his Sunday night thread because there is no way I could improve on it (except, perhaps to add this)...
So, last week ends with the SEC charging the almighty and all powerful Goldman Sachs with securities fraud related to their "packaging" of toxic CDOs. What to make of it? Here's the problem from a trading perspective: Bull moves usually don't end on "bearish" news and events. They almost aways end when all the news is bullish and every bullish factor is "priced in." With that in mind, I'm a little skeptical that the overall advance ended at 1214. However, the candlesticks are UGLY and the market is peaking right into the 61.8% of the entire decline. On top of that, it's the seasonal time of year for stocks to start beating a retreat. So, the medium term picture looks bearish. "Investors" and traders should be prepared for at least a 10% market decline.
Happy Birthday "k" & "BinT"
From Andy T - 4/18/10 (running comments on previous thread)
Embedded below this Scribd document are a couple of libertarian-leaning clips I found this weekend in light of the recent "Tax Day." Don't watch them if you believe that government offers "solutions."
S&P 500 Update 18 Apr 10 While I disagree with his ideas on money creation and causes of the Great Depression, Milton Friedman was a pretty clear thinker on several subjects. Here is on poverty in 1977-1978... I often say that accountants and lawyers are the "barnacles" on the ship that is American society in that they tend to "slow down" the economy. Indeed...
180 comments:
@DL & @Ironworker
(from other thread)
The GOP hasn't ANY MORE OF A CLUE what to do (with regards to a "reform bill" - or hardly anything else for that matter - than the DEMS do)...
It's all just posturing... Be the OPPOSITION...
If the American public has learned ANYTHING in the past "x" years it's the following...
"Vote for us because, um, we're not those OTHER GUYS"... That's what swept Dems to seats in 2006 and 2008...
To me, most of the time it is just amusing and funny... But when it puts our country into a 1.6T deficit (and counting)... It's not so funny anymore...
Teabaggers beware... BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR! Are you 'really' prepared for the reality (instead of the concept)?
This is the OTHER side of "Hope & Change"...
Karen:
I am still amazed this morning how you figured out my birthday. But don't tell me, you know how when magicians reveal their tricks, how that takes away from the magic of the magic. Well, I would prefer to think you are a conjurer than have it be something really simple. But thanks to all for the wishes.
Couple of interesting articles this morning.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avgm8RZdJC2Y
Merkel Undermines Bunds as Premium to U.S. Debt
“The bund rally is over,” said Stuart Thomson, a money manager at Ignis in Glasgow, Scotland, who helps oversee more than $100 billion. “Greece ultimately has to default and bund yields will have to rise as Germany funds the Greek rescue over the next two to three years.”
and..
By Joshua Zumbrun
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Americans’ confidence in government continues to decline and is likely to be an important factor in the 2010 elections, according to a Pew Research Center survey.
Only 22 percent of survey respondents said they can trust the government in Washington and 30 percent said the federal government is a major threat to their freedom.
...We bloggers who feel that the priviliged are the beneficiaries of government efforts are not alone in our cynicism. A whopping 80% of us feel the same way.
many B-days that the last few days- so a shout out to BinT- Karen and little I already got some b-day wishes from ol' Ahab-
b22 should be happy to know that BR has posted the Clinton article for discussion-
it's interesting if this (and I always liked Clinton)- is another "I feel your pain" type moments- he had that down cold
"Majority of Americans Distrust the Government: Survey"- CNBC
shocker
sorry Bruce-
missed your post on the same subject!
gotta roll out early- all have a good day
@ahab
Tomorrow's Headline:
Majority of the American Government distrusts AMERICANS...
---
The Capitol Beltway might need to become a moat filled with snapping alligators...
And the China thingy about curbing the housing market...it too, has caught the world's eye:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alcHROMlfj78
Stocks, Commodities Dive as Goldman Sued, China Curbs Loans
let sneak this post in before I leave-
thought this was real interesting- the ash diffusion from the volcano in Iceland- via ZH- click on the chart to show how it has covered Europe- and damn near in Newfoundland
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eyjafjallajokull-ash-diffusion-indicates-why-europe-panicking-84-european-flights-cancelled
CV @ 8:33
no doubt
morning! thanks for the cake!! and wishes.. lovely way to begin my morning : ) along with crude oil DOWN, of course.. gotta make some coffee.. (and Bruce, I simply remembered from a mention you made last year; where were we then, TBP? laughing)
I was just doing some checking...
Keep in mind that on the .09 correction (last June) AND the .09 correction in January...
SPX had printed a .055 correction within 3 DAILY candles of the high...
.055 = 1147ish here...
@karen
aah! a crooked cake and spilled coffee...
What more could you want? :-)
Also...
50SMA is on it's way to being around the 1147 level in short order...
55SMA = 1137.88 as we speak...
This next comment I'm writing as a COMMENT FOR MYSELF... (as I want to remember these "out loud" thoughts for the future)...
The 200SMA hit around the CHART GAP (1076) just as the rollover occurred... Don't know if it means anything...
1150 is H&S support...
However, the "tails" on those candles take you into the low 130's...
Very similar to the Jan highs... H&S took you down to near the KT zone (with the "tails" around 1086)...
Basically what I'm saying was that after .055 was taken out (in. Jan)... The 3rd candle ENGULFED a months worth of work...
The appearance or non-appearance of Magic Monday would seem to be the fundamental issue of the day.
Hope that Karen, B in T and Baby I enjoyed their special day.
whats up team.
ahab, I thought the clinton comments were interesting for what they reveal about social mood and its trends. Politicians are really slow to figure out the social mood, Clinton is no different, though I'd argue he can "feel" the social mood better than many others.
Happy Birthday Karen and Bruce.
Morning Team, thanks for all the birthday cheer to Baby-I... he had a blast and ate a bunch of cake. (Gluten-free, at the behest of Mrs I... was actually quite tasty.)
Back to biz...
I'm watching 1196.5 and 1204 this morning, and dont have much to say until we meet one of those (or both, depending)... or, on the other hand, take out 1187 with some authoritah.
C, if you get a chance to check my SPX, interested to see if we're on the same page. I'm jiving pretty well with what AT had to say last night.
@McF
"I'd argue he can "feel" the social mood better than many others."
I'm sure he relishes the moment with a nice Cuban cigar (that he doesn't inhale)...
Oh wait... aren't Cuban cigars illegal in this country?
@I-Man
I'm jiving, I think, exactly with you and Andy T...
Based on my random comments here... I believe this paints the following picture...
- to 1147-1150 within a few days
- perhaps a wave 2 bounce back to 1172ish
- wave 3 (or C), takes out 1150... definitely a look at low 1130's... Maybe all the way down to KT...
For today, there may be some small issues to work out between 1198 and 1204...
...and CV is STILL maintaining his 1.29 Euro target...
Even now that GS has been STOPPED OUT twice on analyst calls... and Citi has been STOPPED OUT once...
anybody else want to take a shot at the Euro? :-)
Just saw on a site Nic recommended that there was an option supporting EUR at 1.3420 that expired at 10am.
@ CV 10:04
Its in Bob's sweet spot right now... and looking ripe to sell.
Cable, (and I feel really cool just knowing what the hell that is now :) ) is more interesting to me at the moment, with that gap.
I'm wondering why the pound is getting rocked harder than the EUR and AUD...
Some UK exposure that hasnt peeked out yet, perhaps?
Hey Bob, just talking about you.
NYSE A/D- 1189 A, 1546 D
I thought this was a good sheet-
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/04/19/206196/a-cdo-litigation-risk-league-table/
Ten American cities caught in free fall/
Economic indicators in these metros have gone from bad to worse
@bob
Yeah... As you can see, they're trying to use CITI to hold the entire market up...
What a friggin joke of a system we live under!
As I said the other day...
watch XOM...
That's the ace up the sleeve... When SPX hits 1150, they'll pull that card out...
Is this more blogger nonsense, or is it just a quiet morning?
Nevermind...
@I-Man
blogger nonsense????????
@I-Man
I think it's a quiet morning...
Traders here know to wait for the "3" of "3"'s
It's a quiet morning.
LB will be back this afternoon to discuss how his hedge worked out. The leading indicators data brought on a few Treasury sellers but there is still an atmosphere of caution out there today.
Which usually get started just after the RAMP that the algos use to blow all the last stops from the late 1st wavers...
Lloyd stoops for pennies you know...
Really.
I stoop for Benjamins...
Great commentary from Doug Noland over the weekend. It's About Trust:
The bone I have to pick with the bulls relates to their view that buoyant markets are signaling the emergence of a sound and sustainable recovery. I see instead a desperate policymaker crisis response reigniting Credit Bubble excesses and fomenting only deeper systemic distortions. This week, Chairman Bernanke suggested that the strong market environment is confirmation of the soundness of policymaking and market trust that Washington will get its fiscal house in order. Fed officials are again deluding themselves and, in the process, indulging asset market inflation and destabilizing speculation.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/16462/its-about-trust
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morning-musings-art-cashin-12
Art Cashin said Fridays selloff was 75% Greece and 25% Goldman. Considering the 10yr spread over Bunds today I think he's right. Greece is about to go BOOM.
@Lord Blankfein
Since the inception of the FED, a BENJAMIN is worth about a penny...
@Amen
1.29....1.29...1.29...
A couple of days of meandering and stabilization while we process the litigation news flow, then LB thinks the macro picture may intervene once more. No auctions this week. 2/5/7y next week.
Crude build on Wednesday, initial claims Thursday, new/existing homes and durable goods on Friday. LB is thinking we get bearish again in midweek, based on the charts of course.
The indexes will lead. (Right, Harry?)
@LB
"The indices will lead"
http://www.yowusa.com/et/2003/et-2003-07a/a_image014_1.jpg
Ahem...INDICIES
Lots of EU/UK price data out before market open tomorrow.
Whither "Magic Monday"?
re: Clinton, my view is this is the early stages of politicians coming after the banks/bankers, not because they actually care, but only to deflect blame from themselves. Some Socionomic thoughts from RP:
Corruption is ever-present, but it is both regarded and expressed differently in bull and bear markets. Scandals erupt more frequently in bear markets, not because there is necessarily more corruption, but because the crowd seeks scapegoats to punish for the previous bull market excess. In a mania, most people think wild financial speculation is rational. For example, several years of immense financial corruption preceded the Savings and Loan collapse in the United States, and Enron created hundreds of suspicious partnerships and employed an army of "inventive" accountants. But this wasn't recognized as corruption until AFTER the declining mood took the markets down.
In other words, we embrace, tolerate or punish corruption depending on whether social mood is trending up or down. In the absence of factual information, we make financial decisions by gauging the opinion of our fellows. Think about that for a second.
Harry calls them INDEXES. This is satire, remember...
It's a bit drab this morning, without the ladies...
LB has always been a bit of a satyr...
@McF
When one's lips have a firm suctionless grip around the breath-a-lyzer...
That first drink doesn't appear to have been a good idea (in hindsight)...
1172 close anyone?
Ahem...INDICES ;^}
and as long as we're being pedantic
jibes,not jives, as in,
my figures jibe with yours
as opposed to
you're jiving me
ok, ok, i'll unpurse my lips and stop being the church lady now.
Well isn't that special....
church lady.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJkHykGRXrw
You want a red sharpie, Bat?
:)
Karen,
I think you have a memory we could take to Vegas.
C on the 60 min has potential for a rollover, i think.. wishful thinking.. just looked at our other nemeses, abk and aig, as well..
i-man - i'll try to control myself. it just that ever since reading...
"Then you should say what you mean," the March Hare went on.
"I do," Alice hastily replied; "at least--at least I mean what I say--that's the same thing, you know."
"Not the same thing a bit!" said the Hatter. "You might just as well say that 'I see what I eat' is the same thing as 'I eat what I see'!"
but then we're living in an increasingly wonderland world aren't we?
@72bat
Last time I checked, you were the only one being pedantic :-)...
And I'm a musical kind of guy... So things tend to
JIVE with me...
Bruce, more a tribute to your indelible impressiveness! : )
This is the candle right here (1188), right Amen?
That tells us we're going to 1172...
72,
nice post there at 11:43. very nice.
Whats dragging NAZ down today? I've been running all over this morning.
cv - i'm down with that!
Morning!!
I-man - Sterling is most correlated with the financials so any rally or drop in them causes the bigger move in cable. That's why it fell hardest on Friday and is rallying today.
From Asraf Laidi:
April 19, 2010 11:29 ET: FRIDAY's 14% SPIKE IN THE VIX suggests that Fridays declines in US equity indices might not be a 1-day event. Each of the last +8% spikes in the VIX (Jan 20th and Feb 4th) involved a decline of at least 5% and lasting at least 1 week in US major indices. One UNUSUAL DEVELOPMENT in the recent rally of US equities is that emerging market indices (Brazil's Bovespa and India's Sensex) had fallen by as much as 4% BEFORE the high was reached in US indices. Such rare divergence between emerging market equities and those in the US suggested that S&P500 and Dow are due for a correction of at least 3-5%, which could drag the S&P500 and the Dow towards 1,150 and 10,550 respectively.
Thx Nic! Both great points.
Lets see if we get some follow through on this move below 1187, or if its just a shakeout.
good one nic! and for those that like Kasriel and Bangalore:
"As mentioned above, the factor that restrains our near-term bullishness with regard to economic growth is the lack of growth in net lending by the private financial sector and exceptionally weak growth in the M2 money supply."
http://www.safehaven.com/article/16455/its-been-a-while
@Nic (11:54)
The last 3 significant (really ONLY significant) drops in the SPX (since the March '09 lows), occurred
- last June (.09)
- October (KT - around 5%)
- January (.09)
The 'duration' of all 3 were 'fibonacci' number days... (21, 8, 13)...
FYI
(also...see 9:35 above)
But Asraf Laidi, of course, says it better ;-)
Is Citi also going to get slapped by the SEC?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/citigroup-cfo-declines-comment-whether-bank-has-any-outstanding-wells-notice
Karen,
It think it is not true I am inedible. Probable I taste like old socks, that may be the problem.
THIS WEEK's Overview of Earnings Reports:
Tuesday
AK Steel
Apple
GS
Coca Cola
USBancorp
Yahoo
Wednesday
AT&T
FCX
LMT
MCD
MS
SBUX
UTX
Wells Fargo
Thursday
AMZN
American Express
Auto Nation
Capital One
Credit Suisse
NOK
Peabody Energy
Verizon
Friday
Honeywell
from bloomberg Oil Tumbles..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF7TfMrdKPPQ&pos=6
@karen
Oil Tumbles
The Shanghai Composite "It wasn't last night's drop that was scary ... it was the breakdown in the index's triangular pattern."
Ha! CV, good one.. we a need some levity here : )
Pretty simple. Store excess oil in foreclosed houses.
...I may apply for one of those government jobs pretty soon....Solutions, yep, that is my middle name...
Bruce! i thot Bruce was your middle name! lol
blogspot is driving me crazy! won't let me post my links : (
and don't even get me going on the market..
oh! red hot chili peppers Snow at Irvine Housing Blog!
@karen
The thing about the "breakdown" of that triangle on the Shanghai is that oftentimes the ACTUAL CONCLUSION is reached...
Meaning:
It appears to have broken down BEFORE the triangle was complete... So to me, it's highly likely that after a bout of selling, there will be a vicious RE-RALLY to the point of the apex that corresponds to the TIME DATE "of" the apex...
I've found that these oftentimes line up with OPEX weeks...
Meaning:
Beware of a vicious rally back around the 3rd week in May...
"Store excess oil in foreclosed houses."
Fair enough. Hmm.. meanwhile unemployed oil drillers and realtors can have government-sponsored cosmetic surgery paid for by clawbacks of bankster bonii....
Thank you Karen. By the way, we had gas go down for the first time in weeks locally here. By a few cents. Same with you?
I'd have to look at that chart closer to line it up better...
But people...
CV taking the whip to his "dead horse" again...
Back in February (with weekend EURO post)... I'd identified MAY 4th-5th as the Euro "bottom" date... I'd assume everything else would line up in accordance...
We may be heading there right now...
8 day market "correction" (which started Friday and which ends around May 4th)...
I'd be prepared for a FULL RETEST after that...
February 27th was that post...
Question is...
How LOW do we go here?
I'll take the bait and guess 1104-ish...
Lefty:
Let me tell you a story. I saw a guy a few weeks ago who hadn't been to a doctor in 50 years (age 71). Had a facial cancer that I took off, 9 centimeter defect, big neck/cheek flap to close, hypertensive...bled into the wound that night, clots had to be drained, now on two meds...my interest partner tells me in the hall he has a PSA of >20, so he's got prostate cancer too.
The moral? You should probably see a doctor more often than every 1/2 century...
...but if it can't make it through 1147 on the downside... It would be hard to go that far...
@LB
I think we ought to put oil derricks on Lloyd & Jamies yards in the Hamptons, and drill down to see what kind of GUSHER we'd get from their basement...
B in T:
LB will be knocking on your door, it's been 25 years already.
Joking....
LB can't go 25 minutes without lunch though.
Back soon.
"I'll take the bait and guess 1104-ish"
My only question is, 1200 before 1104, or vice versa?
I'll say 1200 before 1104
@DL
That's not the right way to look at it (because I'm not yet sure if we'll go as deep as .09 on the correction...
I'll take 1150 before 1200... Fair Enough?
CV @ 1:17
O.K.
Loser buys the other a cheesburger.
(I'll ship it to you Fed Ex).
CV @ 1:17
Come to think of it, you could put up a link to PayPal; we could then place bets with one another, and you could collect a commission.
A little MUSICAL ACCOMPANIMENT to go along with the cheeseburger bet
GS had concluded in an earlier internal investigation that Tourre had done "nothing wrong," the spokeswoman said.
I really hope they go down and I do not care what the reason is for. I also hope every other TBTF bank suffers a similar fate. Finally, to prove I am not all pitchfork and burning, I hope sound financial institutions flourish in an environment where there is fear of repurcusions for illegal and unethical actions.
I suspect this will be around the middle of this decade.
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/290846
Second Iceland volcano erupts, described as 'Gateway to Hell' Breaking News
@Bruce
I thought this was the "Gateway to Hell"
http://seeker401.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/85-broad-street.jpg
Reykjav, Iceland - Since the second eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland, European flight travel has been near impossible and has caused many of the world leaders to cancel their funeral trip to Poland.
Well, be prepared for more flight cancellations in Europe as another volcano in Iceland has erupted. The volcano is called Hekla and is described as 100 times more powerful than the Eyjafjallajokull volcano when it erupted 200 years ago.
Throughout the Middle Ages in Iceland, residents called the Hekla volcano as the “Gateway to Hell.” Hekla is Iceland’s most active volcano as more than 20 eruptions have taken place since 874.
The volcano has produced one of the largest quantities of lava in the world in last 1,000 years.
McHappy,
New scammers arise in every bull market.
No way to stop it.
CV:
Where I grew up the Gateway to Hell was the doorway to Mrs. Moore's 4th grade class. She had a paddle given to her by Mr. Trussel in Industrial Shop class and she nicknamed it "Fanny Burns"...
...I seasoned it for all those who followed..
@Bruce
Sounds like she and 'Sister Mary Teresa' (from CV's recollections), would hit it off nicely...
@DL: True to some extent, but we CAN limit/lessen the damage they cause to everyone else around them if certain activities were banned outright and punishable by prison in the event these laws are broken.
New scammers arise in every bull market.
Yes, it certainly appears to be the case. But a new bull market and a recovery of built on a solid foundation cannot start until the current scammers are punished - under civil AND MORE IMPORTANTLY criminal law.
That too, McHappy. The hold the prior regime has on things needs to end for a true recovery to take hold. They need to be fired, replaced, and in some cases, put in prison. Gotta clear out the rotten, dead wood and start anew.
H&S on DIA 60 min.. needs to complete in next hour our forget it : )
XRT looking unstable today, too.
@DL
As always... CV donates all his "winnings" to charity...
Thus, my favorite charity can expect a cheeseburger...
They'd gladly accept to TODAY (and you can pay for it on Wednesday)...
@karen
Hey karen, did you get your tomatoes in?
CV @ 1:48
Perhaps a McDonald's gift certificate would be better.
i did get my tomatoes in! and i thot i was in MA with all the effing mosquitos buzzing about.. thanks for reminding me, too, as they may need water today..
@DL
Yeah, then one of the big banks could start an ETF for "paper hamburgers"...
and sell derivatives off of it...
I smell a billion dollars somewhere...
@karen
I can't put mine in the ground just yet...
Still too much of a risk of overnight frost (which we almost got last night - tho today it's sunny and 70)...
---
I did move them from peat pots to larger pots yesterday to let the root base start expanding... Still have them in the greenhouse for now tho...
48 vines this year... I'm going to have BUSHELS of the stuff by July...
CV @ 1:52
Until then, we'll just have to settle for cattle futures.
Good thing I have all that oilve oil...
Otherwise there'd be nothing to put on the tomatoes...
You don't think I'm making KETCHUP do you?
check out the apple chart since Friday morning....
@McF
They report tomorrow...
along with "Gold in my slacks"
McF @ 2:11
Yeah, but they're going to report "BTE" earnings again, right?
DL,
and that would matter to me if I thought earnings drove stock prices.....
goog was BTE weren't they?
this isn't an rec to short apple, but that chart doesn't look good.
I-Man is watching 1192 now for resistance. Might close the day around there.
Saks to Close More Stores
by DAVID MOIN with contributions from MARCY MEDINA
Posted FRIDAY APRIL 16, 2010
From WWD ISSUE 04/16/2010
Saks Fifth Avenue will close less than 20 stores over time, representing “more than a handful” of the 53 full-line units in the luxury chain, said Stephen I. Sadove, chairman and chief executive...
Speaking of "GOLD NOT IN MY SLACKS"...
Looks to me like GLD has a date with 102...
Wait...Misprint...I meant to say 104.50
@Karen
THat should really drive retail sales numbers next year!
@DL
Right around here (1192-ish) ought to be the end of your "cheeseburger dream" DL...
Here's some moreMUSICAL ACCOMPANIMENT to go along
Living in the U.S.A.
Come on try it, you can buy it, you can leave it next week, yeah
Somebody give me a cheeseburger
BOING.... BOING.... BOING....
That's the sound of my ERX/TBT MOMO COMBO bouncing...
Tightly stopped. Shaken not stirred...
SEC voted 3-2 aka along party lines. The independent vote (Shapiro) sided with the Democrats. Uh oh.
CV @ 2:34
And I'd like a tomato to go along with that c-burger, if you don't mind.
AmenRa
"Independent vote"...?
not to mention those delicious crispy red onions..
Oil Tumbling in Options on OPEC Quotas, U.S. Demand -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF7TfMrdKPPQ&pos=6
You guys are making me hungry
"Oil Tumbling"
Stronger dollar, weaker demand...
$60/bbl by the end of "driving season"
DL
The chairs vote is used to break ties and/or make the vote unanimous. The main issue is that the vote was split down party lines.
1197, then 1200 are the upside bogey's now.
CV, better fire up that bbq...
@I-Man
It's like the chick that leaves something of hers behind at your house...
...by accident, of course (I'll explain someday)...
$C has traded 1.6 billion shrs so far or 19% of entire market...
Karen ... stop now
Ha... if you guys only knew how many JR's out there want to be long C... its an epidemic.
Confirmation the PPT exists:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwqxS03IINs
Rally back on baby! That dip was short-lived.
"It's like the chick that leaves something of hers behind at your house..."
It's usually panties. Sometimes it's hair adornments.
So my friends tell me...
How the hell does a "chick" leave behind her panties "BY ACCIDENT"...?
Guys leave things behind too. My friends tell me ...
How the hell does a "chick" leave behind her panties "BY ACCIDENT"...?
pretty common actually
had a cousin and his three roomates at PSU that covered a wall in left behinds.
I think I'll buy a few hundred shares of LTD.
I'm sure that subject will endure for a while. On another note:
UK elections are a much more interesting animal than the US version.
Time for lots of swings of momentum in three directions. There is a long tradition of the Conservatives support being under-represented in polls and Liberals being over-estimated. [I am not a Tory.]
This reminds me of 1970. Big Tory lead faded as the incumbent Labour Government defended its record and looked good going into the election. They lost. Edward Heath promised to cut taxes "at a stroke"! (He did but only on the very rich).
Long or short GBP/EUR...?
BOING BOING BOING..
(My TBT/ERX combo.... sorry, have to stay amused)
LIVERPOOL 1-0 ahead v. WEST HAM
Back for the last half hour.. should have stayed outside, I see. so C is dbl average volume. i hope that is uncle sam in distribution. and, this chick would NEVER do that.
Have no idea which party would be best/worst for sterling.
Nic might have a good idea but to be honest the policies are probably similar, and the uncertainty element is therefore the worst of all?
Karen,
By accident, or on purpose?
Hi Karen, LB is glad that you came back inside.
"the uncertainty element is therefore the worst of all?"
Perhaps a "relief rally" after the election?
DL, i think i was quite clear.
C accounts for 20% of total market volume today.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/citi-accounts-20-total-market-volume
"Perhaps a "relief rally" after the election?"
A safe bet. Sterling and FTSE together. Then back to the trade...
@karen
For the record... CV (in the beginning) used the word "chick"...
CV doesn't put karen or Nic in the category of "chick" (so that should clarify a lot of positions)...
Liverpool 2-0 up.
Singin "You'll Never Walk Alone" with joy today, I see...
Yeah,
All women are "chicks"... except Nic and Karen.
It's not even half-time yet... but I can give Macro Man a hard time as he is a fan of West Ham United and their theme song "Bubbles"..
I think Karen went outside again....
Too many charades for me to deal with today.. not sure I can stomach this close.. Think I'll revise my GS line in the sand to 165.. 3 closes over and i'm done.
GS reports tomorrow...
CV has to check out...
I'll see everybody later after the WRAP...
Nic and Karen. Ladies Who Trade...
BOING BOING BOING.
one positive? the xlf hasn't regained 16.50.. oops, spoken too soon!
"Ladies who trade"
A rare breed.
well, my point was really the 10 day ema.. and it looks like xlf is under by a cent.
The Bond Report 4.19.10
A weak day in fixed income across the board as bonds sold off a little in the afternoon and equities rallied as carry trades recovered from last weeks' Greece/Goldman shock. Vanguard put out an interesting note today regarding the Bear Flattener and warning investors that holding the Short End into a tighter FED might result in Investor Pain.
Hard to see today's trade as anything more than a little profit taking by traders on the right side of last week's action, or perhaps this was simply the result of EVIL HEDGERS like LB.
Corpies: LQD -0.25%; AGG -0.18%; JNK -0.43%; HYG -0.19%;
Govies: TLT -0.25%; IEI -0.21%; TIP -0.24%
We retained our EVIL HEDGE position on the long end but otherwise did nothing.
Sorry took a break.
Short EUR vs GBP.
UK markets do not want a hung parliament, traders do not want the Lib Dems who are toughest on bank reform. Lib Dems did not have a prayer and suddenly are contenders.
Can't see Brown doing anything to hurt the pound going into an election.
Regulatory arbitrage on the XLF from here on, Karen?
We have had most of the major earnings reports from the financials, doesn't seem like there will be any major negative surprises for this quarter, although the regionals might be weak.
@ Left
I did a TLT chart over the weekend you might want to take a peek at. Nothing new really though.
240 min chart S&P futs ... wonder what that pattern is hehe
Texas Doing Well.
A cue for crude and natty to decline for several years?
http://www.slate.com/id/2250999/?yahoo=y
"wonder what that pattern is hehe"
lemme guess. Dandruff?
Thanks I- will check it at Dread.
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