AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

SPX
Bullish long day (opening marubozu). Resolved hammer higher. Stayed above the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89 (next is the 1.8276 at 1218.63). Midpoint back above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Closed below 21 SMA. Stayed above the 55 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.




VIX
Bearish long day (plus gapped lower at open). "Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death I shall fear no market." Back below the 618.8% fibo ext (support). Midpoint is still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Pre Greece implosion jitters. Tested the 14.6% fibo ext and passed. No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed below the 21 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece default coming soon to a theatre near you). New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1.3596.

38 comments:

karen said...

okay, i left my aapl and ipad comments on the previous thread to devote myself to AR's wrap.. sighing. do i have to get out of bed tomorrow? or out from under the bed tomorrow?

karen said...

another update: ABC Consumer Comfort Index Drops Back To 2010 Low, 92% Say The Economy Is In "Bad Shape" (zerohedge) http://tinyurl.com/y2co7rm

McFearless said...

ra,

thanks as always for the update.

here's to hoping some bulls will show up here for what is likely a gap up in the morning. I'm sure their statements will continue to help validate e-wave and socionomics in real time.

McFearless said...

Hmm, RR hints at liking C tonight.

Bove says to $16, maybe he's too conservative, :)

CV said...

@karen

If you're going to get an iPad... You'd better wait for the hype to die down a little...

Man loses part of finger in iPad theft

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36667769/ns/technology_and_science-tech_and_gadgets/?GT1=43001

karen said...

candles on C look like it treaded water all day.. i am obsessed with C and GS..

McFearless said...

who the hell is this invictus dude at TBP:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/paging-sergeant-schultz/comment-page-1/#comment-279983

AmenRa said...

FWIW C just closed above its monthly 3LB mid of 4.90.

karen said...

great, AR.. let's buy it for the next ten points.. piece of cake! what could go wrong?

AmenRa said...

Karen

I think ZH had an article about how the USG is manipulating C to get the price above $5. Most pension and mutual funds can't touch the stock unless it trades above $5. So watch out for a possible reverse split.

karen said...

AR, yes! I saw/read Nic's link on that.. several twitters ran it as well.. i am now wondering if twitter will give the bloomberg terminal a run for it's $$$, laughing.

karen said...

oh, the frying pan is really heating up.. the latest link on the incestuous GS alliances at ZH yielded this tidbit in the comments section:

(my note, remember I posted on MTG earlier)

That's interesting. Not sure if this is related, but MTG announced today that they are going to try to raise $1B: $300M in convertible debt, $700M in equity. This is a company that isn't expected to turn a profit until 2012 (and hasn't had a quarterly profit since 2007). Apparently the equity offering isn't going so well (what a surprise).

The sole bookrunner?

Do I really need to tell you?

call me ahab said...

I still think the housing market could take another swan dive-

April residential permits will give us an indication-

. . .and everyone is getting excited about consumer technology- but reality- it does not touch every level of the economy like housing does-

in the end- products like the I-Pad are nothing more than a convenience

call me ahab said...

. . . but if it doesn't burn your lap Karen- then that is another selling point I haven't thought of-

and I can relate- laptops are always burning my lap when I am using it while wearing my thong underwear- lol

karen said...

ahab, pls don't frighten me with the thot. my week is scary enuf !!

Nic said...

EURUSD is testing yesterdays hammer low and last weeks hammer low. I would imagine there are some good stops below there. We could see a decent overnight pullback if they trigger.

Nic said...

Karen .. re twitter. I am new to twitter (prolly the last on the planet as usual) but I agree with you, I have been v impressed with what you can learn in real time.

Nic said...

For moving average fans .... there is possibly an emerging dead-cross formation developing in the CRB-index (index of 19 commodities), whereby the 50-day MA has fallen below the 100-day MA for the first time since May 2009. The last time such a crossover took place was in August 2008, before triggering a 53% collapse.

karen said...

Nic, are you near toronto? I posted that VA (Virgin America) new route announcement with you in mind. YYZ - LAX non-stop! I'll pick you up myself : )

Nic said...

That would be fun!!
Thanks

Andy T said...

Rough week so far....had a bad feeling that little GS event might have just been another dip to buy. Markets never peak on a bearish event.

Ugh.

Day trading shorts will not enjoy a break of 1214...

I'll probably have to stick with the 1200 strike puts no matter what happens. Sometimes you just have to hunker down and take it.

THANK YOU SIR! MAY I HAVE ANOTHER?

Nic said...

Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix on crude, the airlines and the volcano (from FTAlphaville):

According to the Switzerland-based independent analyst, the real impact would start to be seen when airlines began unwinding fuel hedges, which is not such a distinct possibility. As he noted (our emphasis):

Up to now the focus has been mostly on the amount of lost jet demand. There is however also a financial risk linked to the airlines hedges that will need to be considered if there is any further interruption.

European airlines, like most other airlines have greatly suffered in the fourth quarter of 2008 when loss of traveling due to the crisis went with lower oil prices which translated in red numbers in the hedges. Some airlines were then forced to sell back their hedges which brought prices even lower.

Many airlines then slowed down or did not hedge in the first quarter of 2009 and started to hedge back mostly in the second half of 2009. However the financial losses linked to the hedges of 2008 were so great that they have used in the process a good portion of their hedging cash lines.

If the Volcano was to again disrupt air travel, European airlines could find themselves in the same situation as in 2008: unexpected loss of demand and lower oil prices which would pressure them to liquidate some of their hedges (either Brent of Gasoil+Jet differentials).
To stress the point, Jakob reminded that the oil price correction in the second half of January 2010 occurred around the time Japan Airlines hedges were being unwound due to the firm’s bankruptcy.

AmenRa said...

Andy T

One thing I've learned about puts and calls is that sometimes you just take the money and run.

call me ahab said...

karen-

no doubt- and I get confused- I never remember which is the front and back on the thong underwear- so invariably- I put it on backwards-

what a show- lol

karen said...

Food for thot, could an IB go to junk status?

http://alephblog.com/

Bruce in Tennessee said...

If you put it on backwards then it is a gnoht.

Anonymous said...

@ LB this one is for you:

"What has our eye this morning". - Dennis Gartman via Moneytalks.net. LOL

From the same site, Richard Russell and David Rosenberg. Inflation/deflation debate. RR thinks U.S. Treasury yields are heading higher.

McFearless said...

RR is using a very weak H&S pattern on the long bond to make that call.

Floozie said...

Errm ... thong backwards is "floss"

Andy T said...

Amen to that, AmenRa! (@7.43)

I actually don't normally trade the puts and calls. Only went with the Puts in this instance because Vol. seemed pretty friggin' cheap.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Floozie, floozie, floozie...5 yard penalty for creating a terrible mental image.

If you are Leftback, it's ok. He was born warped...

McFearless said...

AT,

Do you really consider that move down impulsive? Tomorrow should tell us a lot about what the pattern is.

McFearless said...

this was a good post from the blog Karen linked to:

http://alephblog.com/2010/04/18/the-rules-part-x/

AmenRa said...

Arrgghh!! Just skimming through William Black's testimony. What I find funny is that he was sitting there with Dick Fuld and others. I was wondering how many long stares Fuld would give Black.

Andy T said...

McFear: On the futures, there was certainly elements of a five down. I did not like certain aspects of the legs on the ultra short term charts, but the "spirit" of an impulse was there. It's bounced back too hard now to believe it now, though.

Sort of tough moments for the short term trading. I'm short (via puts) and should be stopping out above 1214, but why stop out in front of the big 61.8% at 1229? That wouldn't make sense. So, I'm just going to ride this bitch of a short for awhile.

McFearless said...

well, you never know, the parallels to the GD at this point are far too many to ignore and RP's time cycle stuff in this letter was compelling. The initial wave 2 retrace of the GD was just under 83% I believe and we have exceeded the GD on several levels. As for the puts, I've never used stops when doing options, and I think you mentioned scaling in, which I think is very valid given the wave count.

mcHAPPY said...

MW has a new tit writing columns. He seems to disregard Fab's email where he will be "potential only survivor" and the timeline of events and "running out of time" as the housing collapse had begun. The world is a scary place when the influence of Wall Street is able to filter through to manipulate the populace.

"To regulators and the public who are graced with 20/20 hindsight, the fact pattern sounds like a sinister activity in which Goldman Sachs and Paulson were villains who lured a set of innocents into a trap. This is hardly the case, and to ignore the buyers' role in the disaster that followed would be a mistake of public policy, and perhaps the law."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/going-after-goldman-wont-make-investors-safer-2010-04-21

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

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