AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool advice when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bullish short day. Possible hammer but it's not above recent high. Tested the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89 and passed (next is the 1.8276 at 1218.63). Midpoint still above 10 SMA (uptrend). No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Closed above 21 SMA. Well above the 55 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Dollar up & SPX up. Confused yet? No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish long day. Back below the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Midpoint back above 10 SMA (will you please make up your mind). No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Hammer day (I'd prefer color of body to be opposite of trend). Midpoint below 10 SMA. Tested the 14.6% fibo ext and passed. No daily 3LB changes.



EURUSD
Bearish short day (again 3x). Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed below the 21 SMA. Tested the 0.0% fibo retrace and passed. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece is lighting the fuse as we speak). New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1.3475.

44 comments:

Nic said...

Thanks Ra!

McF
Re EURUSD, I like to keep old trendlines on my charts. If you put one on EURUSD from joining the highs from Nov09 (& 17March & 2April) its the line we broke up through on the Greece bailout. We broke back down through it today and that's the line that contained the bounce in EURUSD today.

I-Man said...

Thx Ra!

Re: "SPX up, USD up... confused yet?"

Uh... hell yes.

call me ahab said...

ZH always has some funny headlines-

"Stunningly Amazon Does Not Surge After Reporting Q2 Operating Income Guidance Well Below Consensus"

and then this-

"Our "Neo-Feudalistic, Gulag Casino Economy"

and of course we have this from RobotTrader-

http://plancksconstant.org/blog1/images/bar-refaeli-1.jpg

personally- I find it offensive and demeaning- but I can't help staring at it- lol

I-Man said...

Just one more push on EURUSD and all hell breaks loose...

Right Nic?

I-Man said...

Damn...

Nic said...

For Karen -
There are still bonuses on WS of course:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aw9JHQv3a31g&pos=3

I-Man said...

That was directed at your link Ahab, not the EUR.

Nic said...

I-Man
The problem with FX is its very sentiment driven. No doubt a lot of the retail market bought that triple bottom level and the sentiment would have got overly bullish so fast ... picking bottoms never works (well not for me anyway).

AmenRa said...

Nic

I drew one from 11/30/09 to 3/17/10. It also caught the top on 1/13/10. I see how it gapped over the line on 4/12/10 forming a shooting star. Struggled for a few days and then formed a bearish engulfing (even enclosing the shadows) on 4/15/10. It's been all downhill since.

call me ahab said...

the return to luxury-

no doubt Nic- times are getting so good I just may drop some $$$$ on a trip to Washington DC- so I can "feel the power"-

luckily- it's only a few miles away and the museums are free(-:!!

I-Man-

offensive- right? lol

Nic said...

I don't see really good support now for EURUSD until 130.90

That woman is obscenely beautiful. I need to go to the saltmine.

I-Man said...

BOOM

I-Man said...

@ Nic

No you dont!

No offense, Bruce.

Nic said...

I-Man thanks but getting up at 2:00AM for London open for the last couple of years has not been kind to my face :(
Sleep deprivation is not good.

I-Man said...

@Nic

What kind of size triggers a move like that?

Just a collection of stops? I cant see any order flow or stop placement for fx... yet.

Nic said...

Well in the NY or London session it takes billions. But just this time of day before Tokyo opens and its just Sydney, much much less.

Nic said...

Yeah thats a few stops gone hehe

call me ahab said...

well like they say Nic- beauty is only skin deep-

but I still thank god I'm beautiful- lol

or as Flip Wilson use to say- in his Geraldine persona- don't hate me cause I'm beautiful(-:!!

Nic said...

Haha Ahab, I think Karen is the only one that has seen the real you.

Nic said...

Everything was down today except DOW SPX etc.
You have to be impressed, I guess.

call me ahab said...

yeah- Karen knows a good thing when she sees it(-:!!!

it's interesting that she said I had a sweet face- or some shit like that-

man- I never heard that before- but Karen- sometimes she gets into the wine-

so who knows really what is running through her head

call me ahab said...

getting back into a somewhat market related topic-

I strongly feel that housing will be crushed in the next several months- permits first- then starts-

like a big freaking hammer smacking the sense into everybody-

people will be waiting around for the next "purchase incentive" before they "pull the trigger" on buying a home

SC said...

It's stunning to step back and realize that, despite all the sturm und drang, the SPX and the USD are basically right back where they were 20 months ago, as if nothing had ever happened.

Those of you whose blood pressure is well-controlled might want to check out the RTH. It's about 1.6% short of making a new all-time high. Not a "post-recovery" high, mind you, but an all-time high. BTW, Home Depot + Lowe's = 20% of RTH.

Nic said...

I think Karen has v good taste Ahab. If she was trading GS she would need wine ;)


Asia isn't impressed with this afternoon's risk rally at all. This could be setting up to be one of those ugly Fridays.

I-Man said...

CV-

This will be right up your alley, its a project I'm doing this weekend.

http://www.sunset.com/garden/landscaping-design/planter-umbrella-stand-00400000023026/

call me ahab said...

Nic-

no doubt there (re Karen's excellent taste)-

also- CV on his morning thread brought up what SC is referring to-

we are back where we were pre "freak out"- so- if the market busts out it must think the best of times are ahead-

but . . .I'm just not feeling it

call me ahab said...

I-Man-

dude- awesome idea!!! You need to keep that umbrella firmly planted-

a story you can relate too- being a former OBX'er-

on Hatteras Island- hanging out w/ my kids several years ago-

very windy- and a huge gust of wind rips someone's huge beach umbrella out of the sand- and it flies down the beach- LIKE A SPEAR!!!

I see it hurling down the beach and run to try and grab it/stop it- but too late-

it impales itself into this women- minding her own business- unaware-

dude- it was gruesome

Nic said...

I am not feeling it either Ahab. The volume on last Friday's sell off was huge so we aren't alone.

I-Man said...

@ Ahab

I miss Nags Head man... I've walked quite a few drunken barefoot miles along beach rd back in the day.

There really is no place like that anywhere else.

BTW,is the brew-thru still around down there?

I-Man said...

LMAO!!!

Now thats what I'm talking about!

http://images.travelpod.com/users/warnout/the_getaway.1207784040.img_2971.jpg

call me ahab said...

I-Man-

Brew Thru's still around my man- use to have some down on Hatteras Island- bit south of Nag's Head-
but no longer- all up in the Kitty Hawk/Nag's Head area

McFearless said...

Nic,
just getting home, I'll take a look re: that first post.

I'm with you and ahab, don't like the action at all, it's bearish, but...I gotta leave room for new highs on the waves. I can't even imagine how overbought things will look if that plays out, and sentiment, I"m not even going there....is it possible to register 99% bulls on DSI, we've already hit 92%.

McFearless said...

SC,

yep, it was all just a bad dream....subprime wasn't even real was it?

McFearless said...

does anyone here follow the Trading Index (TRIN)?

McFearless said...

wow, red everywhere but the dollar, time to look harder at that count again. sold early again....shit.

McFearless said...

five posts in a row?

Anonymous said...

Not really loving the overall "triangle" congestion look on the SP futures, at all. But, triangles sometimes finish moves. 1180 is the key support level on the SP futures. Below that level and the barn door should open. Let's face it though...that's a triangle, or at least congestion. So, be prepared for new highs.

Long 1200 strike puts and loving it...


-AT

SC said...

McF- what's a "subprime?" :)

According to Bloomberg, the yield on Greece's two year note has now broken into double digits. Yet two of the big three still rate them "investment grade."

I-Man said...

@ AT

Been watching Natty?

Nic said...

SC
Read this out tonight:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7621289/Escalating-Greek-default-fears-rock-Europes-debt-markets.html

See you all tomorrow

call me ahab said...

alright-

I'm out- beat like a dog and a cold coming on-

b22-

why not 100% bulls- as far as the eye can see . . .

Nic said...

Michael Lewis - very good:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aWUolZvh4qmE

"Among the many likely consequences of the SEC’s decision to sue Goldman Sachs for fraud is a social upheaval in the bond markets.

Indeed, the social effects of the SEC’s action will almost certainly be greater than the narrow legal ones. Just as there was a time when people could smoke on airplanes, or drive drunk without guilt, there was a time when a Wall Street bond trader could work with a short seller to create a bond to fail, trick and bribe the ratings companies into blessing the bond, then sell the bond to a slow-witted German without having to worry if anyone would ever know, or care, what he’d just done.

That just changed."

AmenRa said...

DXY wants to close above its 233 SMA on the weekly chart. Uh oh...

McFearless said...

oh good, a little taste of what you'll hear out of Italy when their problems become known:

Greek bonds are falling because European Union nations failed to take decisive action to restore confidence in Greece’s finances, former European Commission President and Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi said.

Criticizing “the weakness of European solidarity” amid the most serious challenge yet for the 11-year-old euro, Prodi said weeks of conflicting signals from the EU and Germany have plunged Greece into a deeper financial hole.

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