AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool advice when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bearish spinning top day (body too large for doji). Possible bearish harami. Stayed above the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89 (next is the 1.8276 at 1218.63). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (again). Closed above 21 SMA (barely). Stayed above the 55 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.




VIX
Bullish high wave day. Possible bullish thrusting. Still below the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Midpoint back below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish short day (again). Midpoint below 10 SMA. Didn't need to test the 14.6% fibo ext. No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Bearish short day (again). Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed below the 21 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece is lighting the fuse as we speak). New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1.3498.



GS
Bearish short day. Stayed above the 1.618 fibo of 154.80. Closed back below the 0.0% fibo ext. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 179.50. It's also trending down on the daily 3LB.




The Bond Report 4.21.10 - (courtesy of LB) - Elegance comes both "shaken" & "stirred"

Risk-off day and the Treasury curve was shallower, as long bonds were well bid. Some of this may have been caused by a failed 30y bund auction in Germany (where else?), and continued weakness in the govies of southern european olive oil and wine producing nations.

Corpies: LQD 0.35%; AGG 0.17%; JNK 0.08%; HYG 0.01%;
Govies: TLT 0.82%; IEI 0.14%; TIP 0.31%

We hedged again - after this large move down in yields, a rebound seems likely.

42 comments:

I-Man said...

Thanks Ra!

Leftback said...

Great evening to all, LB will be golfing tomorrow.. enjoy Mr Market!

SC said...

Leftback mentioned JNK strength as an indicator of big money rotating out of equities. I think the pattern of rotation is even more obvious in junk munis, perhaps because tax-free bonds are most appealing to large investors in the top tax bracket:
SPX vs. ORNAX
Notice how ORNAX catches a bid just as the SPX starts to show weakness.

Nic said...

Wot no bond report?
In lieu I have stolen someones credit report as all eyes are on Greece (not, Johnny doesn't care.
Markit’s Gavan Nolan wrote this CDS report

CDS report: Greece at fresh record wides

European credit markets fell back today as sovereign concerns weighed on spreads. There was no fresh news that triggered the widening, but it was no surprise that Greece was again capturing attention. The sovereign’s spreads hit a record wide of 495bp earlier today before settling back to around 475bp. The EU and IMF began negotiations with the Greek government today, and finance minster George Papconstantinou said it would take about 10 days for the parties to reach agreement on the term of the bailout package. Current market yields imply that it is a matter of when and not if the package will be activated, though some view it as inadequate in the medium-term. Technical factors also played a part in the widening. Basis traders were taking advantage of the widening in bond spreads and buying protection. Profit taking saw CDS spreads come in slightly this afternoon.

A contagion effect saw the other peripherals widening, with Portugal again the most vulnerable. Its spreads were trading as wide as 235bp, close to the record 245bp wide reached in February. Spain, at 162bp, was also approaching its record wides of 172bp hit at the same data. The peripheral widening pushed the Markit SovX Western Europe to 100bp, and the index looks set to close at its widest level since the peak of the Greek panic on February 8.

The corporate credit indices opened tighter but soon gave back their gains. They have recovered slightly late afternoon, with the Markit iTraxx Europe index at 81.75bp (+0.5bp) and the Markit iTraxx Crossover at 413bp (+2). The widening among single names has been led by credits exposed to the peripheral economies, e.g. Portugal Telecom and Hellenic Telecom. Banks came under renewed pressure, new tax proposals from the IMF adding to the negative sentiment from the Goldman investigation. Spanish banks, in particular, were among the worst performers.

Airlines and travel groups saw only modest tightening today despite aviation restrictions being lifted. The disruption continued, and the International Air Transport Association put the cost of the five day airspace closure to airlines at $1.7 billion. BA’s spreads are trading at 415bp, 7bp tighter than yesterday but still nearly 50bp wider than pre-volcano levels.

Strong earnings from Apple helped the North American CDS markets withstand some of the widening pressures in Europe. The Markit CDX IG was flat around 86bp, while the stock markets were slightly up. Morgan Stanley’s spreads were little changed at 140bp after it posted better than expected results, while Goldman Sachs was slightly wider at 125bp.

call me ahab said...

interesting day-

perused the previous thread- classic line here from our own I-Man-

"I'm not even trading, why do I care?"

that gotta chuckle out of me-

and Nic- a wing walker- not sure what that is- but sounds sexy-

. . .and Karen- still buds?

CV said...

@Nic

Bond report is UP (in detail) at top of thread...

NEW LOOK - FOLKS

"Amen Ra's Daily Candle Wrap" has become...

AmenRa's Corner (complete with graphics)...

LB's Bond Report is together in the same thread...

Although it looks like LB will be playing a "nassau" with Auric Goldfinger tomorrow...

That's a SLAZENGER "7" that Goldfinger is using there LB... I'm sure you'll be using your usual "Pinnacle HEARTS"...

CV said...

@LB (Bond Report)

Weakness in OLIVE OIL producing nations?

Say it isn't so!!!!!!!

Good thing I'm "stocked up"... Right DL?

Nic said...

Check this Karen. Perhaps the retail sales numbers aren't just those who aren't paying their mortgage any more but have stopped paying credit cards too. Except like the banks not foreclosing I am not sure the credit card banks are being truthful about their delinquencies either.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/open-thread-reader-not-making-any-payments-just-under-100000-credit-card-bills-are-you

DL said...

CV @ 8:11

Absolutely. Even if there is no P3 this year.

Andy T said...

I love getting into debates on how screwed up California is....

BR has a classic up there about the Golden/Nanny State.

His guest author, naturally, claims not all of their problems are their own fault....ha ha ha.

I'm pretty sure BR is a left leaning Democrat at this point...

CV said...

@Andy T

Leaning to the left... hmmmm

BTW - I thot DANERICS post this evening on "The Lehman Hurdle" this evening was interesting (although lightly commented at this point)...

Any ideas?

call me ahab said...

AT-

please-

you didn't know that about BR?

he is a left leaning democrat- always was- regardless of his-

libertarian leanings- lol

that he ever said that cracks me up

Andy T said...

cv. Yeah, I cited that Lehman week on my last few updates... Sept 22nd 2008 was a big downfall day when widespread panic started in earnest. It makes the whole zone around 1180-->1250 a significant hurdle for the market, which always has a memory of the past.

call me ahab said...

"The International Monetary Fund said China should let the yuan gain to cool growth, while Japan must be prepared to widen its stimulus measures as Asia’s two biggest economies diverge."- Bloomberg -

There we have it- stimulus-

it hasn't worked for twenty years- but let's give it another whirl-

I wonder- has it ever occurred to these folks that possibly their needs are sated?

hard to believe I know- but let's figure out a way to get them to spend anyway

I-Man said...

Nice gingerbread on the wrap, CV... I like it.

Thx for the CDS wrap, Nic.

LOL Ahab, I was having a little moment there. Sometimes you feel you have a good grasp on what the tape is saying, and then it punches you in the mouth. At that moment it feels like you have to rip up all your analysis and start over, but I need to tell myself to chill... its just the 1min timeframe!

I-Man said...

Random:

The Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA is top notch, for anyone who hasnt tried it yet.

AmenRa said...

I think they are trying to close at or above 1213.27 which is the 9/26/08 close. Traded above it only once this week. That's the Friday before the 777 point drop in the Dow.

I-Man said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayiXTdxyexrg&pos=4

"Banks Punished in Swaps as Industrial Gap Soars: Credit Markets"

"The iTraxx European financial gauge on 25 banks and insurers jumped 4.75 basis points today to 102.5, the highest in two months, while the corporate benchmark rose 2.75 to 83, JPMorgan prices show. An increase in the index signal deteriorating perceptions of credit quality.

Spanish Banks

Credit-default swaps on Spanish and Portuguese banks led the increase in financial debt risk in Europe, with contracts on Banco Commercial Portugues SA surging 25 basis points to 265, Banco Espirito Santo SA climbing 20 basis points to 269.5 and Banco Santander SA 12 basis points higher at 144, according to CMA DataVision prices."

I-Man said...

I like that 777 number Ra- that was my low print for the SPX for 2010 on AT's poll.

I-Man said...

From that article (which has all kinds of good nuggets in it btw)

"Greece needs to raise 10 billion euros by the end of May"

PFFTTTTT...



"That god damn credit, dead it. Ya think a crackhead payin ya back, shit forget it."
-Notorious BIG

call me ahab said...

I-Man-

classic line there my friend

AmenRa said...

I-Man

How can Greece raise 10b when Germany couldn't sell 3b?

I-Man said...

A lot of good business wisdom in street hiphop...

As I'm sitting here reading about the president wanting to crack down on Wall St, in the "toughest proposed regulatory crackdown since the Great Depression."

I'm thinking, could it really be so simple as:

Govt gets tough on WS, WS removes bid from market?

CV said...

@Ahab

After 20 years... CV would politely "suggest" to the Bank of Japan that they use their "unbridled technological prowess in industry" to invent a HIGH POWERED VACUUM CLEANER to suck all the yen from under the mattresses of their citizens... That might get money flowing again!


@I-Man
Take a look at my "hypothetical" channel DRAW (from the other thread... In this moment, it's still a valid idea (which is about as good as any other idea)...

@Amen
Da ya like the NEW GRAPHICS on your digs?

@ALL
I'm SURE Nic & bob are on this most of all (LB too)... But people... LOOK how nobody is really waiting at the moment (for Greece), they're ALREADY going after Portugal!

call me ahab said...

alright-

I'm done in- wrapping it up for the night-

for some interesting dialogue- check out-

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/on-drawing-bad-inferences/

I tried to school 'em- but sometimes- well you know- you can lead a horse to water but . . .etc . . .

CV- no doubt- I wonder if it has occurred to the Japanese government that maybe the folks don't want anything- maybe they have all they need?

karen said...

Ahab, great quote you posted at TBP! “A politician I study remarked to one of his friends that a good 1/3 of the population consists of “morons” whose brains are capable enough, but whose personalities make them idiots.” As I am completely exhausted tonight and in need of sleep, I'll just thank you all for the thots and comments above, and see you all in the morning. Good night!

DL said...

CV @ 11:02


You manage to come up with a lot of apropos graphics.

CV said...

@DL

I just like things to be "colorful" and "illustrative" (in the end)...

"Cuneiform" or "Aramaic" (helpful as they may have been)... Didn't displace "Heiroglyphics" or "Polysemy"...IMO

One can only USE what is available (in the present)...

SC said...

There's an new post up at BAM Investor blog that kind of mirrors the discussion here yesterday regarding financial and/or energy stocks potentially leading the market down.

I've been keeping an eye on BAM; they've made some pretty good calls over the last few years. They're kind of cagey about their system, but I gather they use EWT to some extent. They went bullish on the dollar last year around the same time as EWI, and they've been calling for a broad equity collapse for a few months.

McFearless said...

"How can Greece raise 10b when Germany couldn't sell 3b?"

Well, isn't that the 7b question o' the day.

mcHAPPY said...

lol Ben.

Another question o' the day:

Do we pop or drop?

It is not looking good to start (perspective of course).

McFearless said...

well McHappy, I'm still holding out that this drop is just a B wave, but I respect enough people that can count five down on the recent move, I can see it, so maybe, just maybe, it's already started. The first wave 2 of the GD retraced just under 83% of wave 1.

If anyone wants a good laugh, google Pitt's comments yesterday on the SEC/Goldman case. UFB.

call me ahab said...

CV getting a late start to the morning thread-

I see he was on the prowl last night on BR's open thread to the wee hours-

sometimes you just have to let off steam(-:!!

McFearless said...

ahab,

there is always a tea party rally for that.

I'm waiting for the ME party. That one will be really popular I'd imagine so I'll join up with those guys.

call me ahab said...

b22-

one of my comments at the TBP yesterday got overlooked I fear-

the subject being public unions in California and one comment said this-

“Unions give the average good citizen protection against corporate greed.”

and my response-

"yeah- especially public sector unions"

and I thought that was pretty damn funny(-:!!

McFearless said...

ahab,

I've noticed that the hardest truth statements are lately the most hilarious.

Yours qualifies.

call me ahab said...

b22- yeah-

it was a big romp about public sector unions and California-

and of course- BR didn't buy any of it

mcHAPPY said...

@ahab

I'm not 100% against unions. They do serve a purpose which is why they were created - to help protect workers i.e. power in numbers.

HOWEVER

The problem has become the entitlement and abuse of union 'power' that has become just as prevelant as fraud, deception, and manipulation in banking.

Banking and unions serve a useful purpose when there is not abuse.

I'm not sure how to combat the problem as the last 20-30 years have created a deep-rooted culture of inefficiency, entitlement, and LAZYINESS.

Unions protect the many bad at the expense of a few good and taxpayers.

My overgeneralized two cents.

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

mcHAPPY said...

sorry - LAZINESS.

McFearless said...

ahab,

well, I'm not sorry I missed that discussion.

72bat said...

speaking of at's poll for hi/lo 2010 - could someone post a url for the results - l've lost track

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