Morning Audibles 4.22.10 - Follow up on Yesterday's POLL

Little did you all know you were subjects of a lab experiment yesterday. In yesterdays thread, I asked everyone to nominate ONE DJIA stock that was the most important to the index. My purpose wasn't to prove anybody right or wrong. Instead, it was to get people thinking in terms of what type of company that money OUGHT to flow to given the current environment. IOW - Notwithstanding the challenges facing the economy (that politicians and Wall St. bankers seem to be in denial about). If you HAD to invest money, where would you put it?




The following is an overview of that experiment.


(# = % Weight in the Index)


CAT #8 (which went from $87 to $22 - and has recovered to HIGHER than "pre-Lehman") - Steady Eddy?

3M #2 ($97 to $40, now almost at October '07 levels) - Steady Eddy?

GE #27 ($60, in 2000, went down to $5 in March '09, still intertwined in finance) - Steady Eddy?

IBM #1 ($135, in 2000, crashed down to $54 post dot.com, now trading at ALL TIME HIGHS) - Steady Eddy?

MSFT #21 ($60, in 2000, traded down to $14 in March '09, now at October '07 levels) - Steady Eddy?

MCD #6 (new ALL TIME HIGHS every day... However, did go from $45 down to $12 post dot.com... But now trading 15% ABOVE October '07 levels) - Steady Eddy? Bubble?

WMT #11 (Still 15% lower than 2000 highs... Decade long WEDGE PATTERN there) - Steady Eddy?

JPM #16 ($65, in 2000, traded down to $14 in March '09, now trading at "pre Lehman" levels) - Steady Eddy?

KO #12 ($88, "pre-LTCM 1988", traded down to $37 in 2002 recession, recently got back to October '07 levels)...

XOM #7 (Went BUBBLETASTIC from '02-'08 [Right before China Olympics]... When it 'crashed' though, it only gave back about 33% - Meaning: As BUBBLE as it got, it never got as "bubbly" as everything else)...



---


The above is how it went down yesterday (these were solely based on the nominations that the readers put forth. However, since that included some companies that were NOT within the SINGLE DIGIT rank in the "weightings". I decided to fill this list out a little (so now you have 15 companies - HALF of the DOW).


Chevron #3
UTX #4 - Trading at October '07 levels (really? - that many elevators?)
BA #5 - At "right shoulder" H&S level (2000-2007-2010) - That many planes?
JNJ #9 - At October '07 levels
P&G #10 - Just shy of October '07 levels


And my thesis is as follows... I took 10 of the MOST NOMINATED stocks (the ones all of you offered)... Then filled out the list with 5 which weren't nominated (but which have high WEIGHTINGS)...

Now look at the PRICE BEHAVIOR of these "industrials" based on their ALL TIME HIGH levels (which mostly correlated with the two PEAKS we've had in equities in 2000 and in 2007)...

Of these...

IBM is close to all time high, MCD "is" at all time high.

KO, MSFT, MMM, JPM, Chevron, JNJ, PG, UTX are at October '07 levels.

CAT is higher than "pre-Lehman".



BA is fully at a TECHNICAL barrier.

WMT probably isn't going anywhere significant.

GE is struggling mightily with finance...

XOM is hanging on because of $80 oil prices... While it hasn't yet reached it's '08 highs, it's hard to imagine it will (unless we see $150 a barrel oil again)... And we all know what THAT would do to the rest of the economy...

So basically, a great deal of these BEST OF THE DOW stocks that you all have nominated have recovered to the BEST LEVELS they have ever attained...

And this is with:

- ZIRP
- payrolls slashed to skeleton crews
- not yet facing higher taxes
- not yet accounting for bump in HC premiums



and NOT FACING the potential headwinds of

- dollar, perhaps, getting stronger
- geo-political tensions (which are benign at the moment)
- "happy talk" 24/7 on TV (changing its tone)

Can anyone say "Priced to Perfection"? Or, in different terms... Notwithstanding the notion that the DOW & S&P are nearing important FIBONACCI re-tracement levels (for the broader indices), it would seem to me that any FINAL PUSH higher would have to include participation in these IMPORTANT DOW components.



Since many of them are already at "all-time" highs, October 2007 highs, or "pre-Lehman" levels, I suppose one would have to "jump the shark" and just start pushing the VALUATIONS on these companies to boundaries not yet known to mankind.


Who's willing to make those kinds of bets? Remember, that oftentimes "dividends" are the key motive for investing in these... At what point does the ROI not "skew" properly?





193 comments:

CV said...

@ahab

I was up kind of late, but I'm MORE late because I had to complete some research to do this mornings thread...

I suppose I should have RESEARCHED first and bitched later...

McFearless said...

C,

as you are well aware, the dow is only priced to perfection in our current insanity driven environment.

In the now famous words of HH:

Hello, let me tell you about the reeeel world.

call me ahab said...

likely excuse CV(-:!!!

mcHappy- previous thread-

I am not against unions- per se- my comment to b22 was that the subject was about public sector unions-

and a response was "unions help control corporate greed"-

but how is that germane to a discussion about public sector unions- who's members work for the taxpayers?

CV said...

@McF

Simply, what stands out to me here is that the MOST IMPORTANT of everything has already FULLY RECOVERED to all-time highs...

There's no more "wiggle" room (unless you want to break these stocks out to all time levels)...

They're not "still in the process" of doing FIB retraces here... They're FULLY RECOVERED...

The only "laggards" are ones which will UNLIKELY retrace more (or, the big oil that needs $150 a barrel to get them to all time highs)...

CV said...

@ahab

It's always ONE COMMENT that sets somebody off...

It was THIS COMMENT that set ME off...

Barry Ritholtz Says:
April 21st, 2010 at 9:26 pm
There is a bell curve of intelligence. Its something we all deal with.

What I detest is the willful distortion of truth for personal/political/financial reasons — and so that is what I push back against . . .

My readership tends to skew high education, high income, and so if I can communicate effectively with them, I am satisfied.


What a load of horseshit!

Trendy said...

CV... get it out man!
Don't hold that stuff in.

Gold model still at neutral. Last bearish signal given on 4/9 and suggested to short gold the next week... for a couple of weeks. GLD was @ 113-114 then. IMO that short trade would be a hold for now, well, that's what my numbers are saying... for now.

CV said...

@Trendy

BR's comment was WRONG on so many levels...

Well, not really WRONG (as nothing is WRONG)... But it was "horseshit" on so many levels...

72bat said...

re: at's poll for hi/lo 2010 - could someone post a url for the results - l've lost track

call me ahab said...

yeah I read that-

right up there with-

"I am a Wall Streeter who blogs"

Trendy said...

2010 predictions

mcHAPPY said...

@ahab

Public unions would need protection as well. Yes taxpayers foot the bill but politicians pull the strings. It would be a shame for honest hard working individuals to lose their job because of political reasons.

With that said, it would appear unions in the US (I use appear because I am in Canada) and I can attest to unions in Canada being wasteful, lazy, and operating on a notion of entitlement. This is the problem. In most instances, wages and benefits are much too high for the education and/or training levels required for the job (think janitors making $60-80K plus full benefits/vacation and wanting MORE).

What I am trying to say is that in THEORY unions work and are useful. In PRACTICE they have become corrupt, lazy, and a drain on the system.

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

Great post today. Definitely food for thought. Spent the weekend trying to explain that a great dividend is not worth losing your capital.

Waste of time really. Bubble is back and the thinking of the 90's has returned with it, "Stick with stocks for hte long term", stocks always go up, own 'good' companies, stay invested at all times, highs outweigh the lows, etc.

2small2bail said...

Steve Keen walking against Australia's property mania ... is that a 5 wave up on the right side of that t-shirt? (laughing)

Also: 2010 predictions (updated)

call me ahab said...

mcHappy-

understood-

gotta roll out- all have a great day!

karen said...

morning! CV, i'm running out of adjectives to describe your morning audibles! I'd been thinking about this sort of thing for awhile.. wanting to at least take the DOW and figure out how much higher any of those tickers could possibly run under the circumstances.. Did anyone see the Koo/Nomura report? I found it last night but didn't post it, I don't think... (no wine, just completely exhausted : )

I will find it.. he declares that if the banks marked their cre to market they would FAIL.

karen said...

Here is a Richard Koo slide presentation from this month on the Balance Sheet Recession: http://www.businessinsider.com/richard-koo-recession-2010-4#-1

Still looking for the other report on CRE..

bob said...

Battling it out at 1.33 on the EURUSD.

72bat said...

karen -
a year ago i asked what could go wrong with owning srs, given the state of cre. several replied that the gov could backstop it all. i found that hard to believe at the time, but now...? in the not-so-distant future there may well be only the "malls of america" - literally

McFearless said...

in the GIB, intelligence is when someone else agrees with your view. When they disagree, they are a "moron" OR, they will claim you do not have enough experience, because in the GIB, experience also automatically equals intelligence. Simply put, it's an example of herding. Ask every gray haired CFP that let their clients get destroyed in 2008. They've been following markets for 25 years!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.cnbc.com/

Producer prices rose more than expected in March on strong consumer food and gasoline costs, though the core measure pointed to tame inflation, while the number of people filing new jobless claims dropped.


...Another of my pet peeves along with unexpectedly. Ladies, Gentlemen, Leftback:

There is no such animal as core inflation. As Master Yoda once said," There is do, and there is do not. There is no try..."

There is inflationary change or there is not. There is no core inflation.

I-Man said...

I wonder if today is the day we get some continuation on a morning gap down?

I feel the need for some 1183.

karen said...

Here is the Richard Koo Report on Commerical RE and banks:

http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/04/21/richard-koo-says-if-banks-marked-commercial-real-estate-to-marketit-would-trigger-a-chain-of-bankruptcies/

I probably saw it a ZH first.. but no time to search for it there now.

Mannwich said...

TLT continues its up trend. How long will it last? What say ye, I-Man?

I-Man said...

EURUSD...

There aint no sitch thang as a triple bottom ya know...

bob said...

Pushed through 1.3280 on EURUSD, should be more selling now.

Mannwich said...

@Bruce: As long as "core" SALARIES for the rank and file don't go up, there is no inflation, according the Fed. Meaning, they don't care about inflation until that happens.

I-Man said...

Manny,

Just got the gap fill on the TLT daily chart at 91, so there may be some selling here to see if it holds.

Most will probably be watching 90.50ish for stops. (The dotted downtrend line on the chart.) Dont be surprised to see that level toyed with a bit in an effort to flush out weak longs.

My buy signal for TLT is a close over 92.5, so its not an all clear situation for me yet. (is it ever tho?)

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_3KYmno0fc0w/S8vScpBKPfI/AAAAAAAAAQs/udq1sLZTKz4/s1600/TLTdailyannoApr16.JPG

Hope that helps.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Manny,

Carter and his fed chairman proved to us that the impossible, stagflation, could be done if we had the political will! Arthur Burns was probably some distant cousin to Greenspan...

Mannwich said...

Thanks I.

CV said...

@I-Man

Despite the Eur-USD thing going on...

My gut tells me that we're still working on designing an upper channel to that chart I put up yesterday...

I put an UPDATED version of that here at the end of this thread...

If we were going to draw that today, the likely result would be some king of fierce rally that takes us up JUST SHY of last weeks high (or, possibly a "throwover")...

The move this morning looked to me like a B wave (as ben described earlier)...

anyway, take a peek at the chart

CV said...

I took my profits on FXP this morning and decided to skiddadle...

Probably left something on the table, but I'm gearing up for the overall indices to roll over soon...

I want to go "shorter" $SPX pretty soon...

CV said...

I know that sounds crazy... IOW (why not just let the FXP ride)?

It has to do with a core position... I'm not "trading in and out" of SPY short positions, Simply adding to shorts... Occasionally, capital needs to be raised for that (and to still maintain cash)...

Not that anyone needed an explanation...

Nic said...

Morning all!

1.3280 could be potential triple bottom in EURUSD, its a level that could attract some buyers anyway, might cause a bounce in stocks. My favourite barometer AUDUSD is being sold but also now at a big level.
Check out Finviz - Bucky is the star of the day!!!

I-Man said...

@ C

I took a look at it last night, and keep wanting to redraw that lower channel line, connecting the first low to the other lows, and keeping your starting point for the upper line, connect it to the last high.

I'm trying to stay open, but its getting harder and harder to see a push to new highs on this run.

I-Man said...

LOL Nic,
Check my 10:04

Nic said...

Haha I-Man

CV said...

@I-Man

I'm "skeptical" of a new high (on this run) as well... But I can see 1211-ish... (and if that's the case - I wouldn't be surprised to see some KNUCKLEHEAD push it to a marginally higher high just to piss everyone off)...

Just like January...

Nic said...

MOODY'S downgrades Greece

I-Man said...

@ CV

Here's a rough sketch of what I mean, I know our timelines are different, but here's kinda what I'm seeing:

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/04/spx-15min-channel-idea.html

Mannwich said...

@Nic: NOW they downgrade Greece? How useful. What a joke. Why exactly do these ratings agencies exist again? Someone remind me.

karen said...

O.C. office rent in 2nd largest plunge
April 22nd, 2010, 12:02 am by Jon Lansner
Orange County office rents fell at an 8.7% annual rate in the first quarter — 2nd worst drop among 79 U.S. markets tracked by commercial real estate analysts at Reis Inc.
Reis pegged typical Orange County office rents at $27.12 per square foot after tumbling in the past year. Only New York — with its $54 rents after a 12.4% cut in a year — had a bigger drop. (Nationally, rents fell 4.2% in the past year!)
One reason for the Orange County rent cuts was a flood of empty offices. Reis put Orange County office vacancy at 19.6% off all space — up 3.8 percentage points in a year. (Nationally, vacancy ran 17.3% in Q1 — up 2.1 percentage points in a year.)
Only 5 U.S. markets had bigger jumps in their vacancy rates:
Seattle: 17.1% Q1 vacancy — up 5.1 percentage points in a year.
Phoenix: 25.2% vacancy — up 4.6 points.
Las Vegas: 24.2% vacancy — up 4.3 points.
Fairfield (Conn.): 19.2% vacancy — up 4.3 points.
Ft. Lauderdale: 20.3% vacancy — up 4.2 points.
Victor Calanog, Reis’ director of research, on the national outlook; “Reis does not expect vacancies to begin declining until 2011. It may take another quarter or two after that for positive rent growth to resume. 2010 will be marked by rising vacancies and negative rent growth, but as the overall economy and labor markets continue to recover, the magnitudes of decline should be far less relative to what we recorded in 2009.

I-Man said...

I just added the 10min version of that sketch to the post, if you're interested.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Your ever watch one of those movies on television where there are problems and the wife says,"Get out before I throw you out?" Ever seen that? Usually a worthless husband...the kind of movie that makes us actual husbands squirm a little??

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=ay34eiybz4Wo

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- German government lawmaker Frank Schaeffler said Greece should be prepared to leave the euro region if it can’t push through enough austerity measures to cut its budget deficit, Handelsblatt said, citing an interview.

“If Greece can’t push through these savings measures, it must voluntarily leave the eurozone,” the newspaper cited him as saying in an interview. The government needs to step up its deficit-cutting measures “significantly,” said Schaeffler, who is deputy finance spokesman for the Free Democrat Party.

karen said...

i think 1202 holds tight.. just wish we could break the 1188..

Mannwich said...

@karen: Don't need office space when everyone "works" from home.

I-Man said...

EURUSD is in crazy land... what up with that spike into the announcement, Nic?

bob said...

Iman

From what I read, there was an announcement of a bridge loan to greece right before the downgrade.

CV said...

@Mannwich

NOW they downgrade Greece? How useful. What a joke. Why exactly do these ratings agencies exist again? Someone remind me.

That's why they pay them the BIG BUCKS!

CV said...

@bob

Maybe the 'translation' went bad...

Maybe they ACTUALLY were saying "Here, I've got a bridge to sell you"...

McFearless said...

wow, dollar, we may be about to see a fifth wave blowoff there or something. go dollar!

Mannwich said...

@cv: I think the market downgraded Greece a long time ago.....

Moody's seems to be reconfirming that for anyone who's been in a coma for the last few months.

I-Man said...

Anyone up for a little DIVE?

McFearless said...

I made the mistake of watchign CNBC for a little bit this morning. they hyped up AXP and all the gold cards they have been signing people up for, less than two minutes later, an AXP Gold card commercial.

I mean, why get a free card that gives you rewards points when you could pay for one!

Full Disclosure: I do have AXP cards. I do hate CNBC.

I-Man said...

It would be pretty funny to see those gap filling algo bitches not be able to close a petty gap in the 1min timeframe...

McFearless said...

another five down I-man with a lot of volume and that'll look like a third after a second that did a deep retrace.

A bear can dream, but until I see it, this is only a B wave and C to new highs is coming.

Mannwich said...

@ben: And the Capital One credit card mailings offers are back with a vengeance. We get at least one offer a week now. Goes straight into recycling.

CV said...

@karen @I-Man

I-Man - I took a look at your chart (and obviously we're seeing the same thing "channel wise")...

I'm just relating the same channels to waves and FIBO extensions...

Probably 1203.84 is the true FIBO extension of what we're seeing right now (which is close to karen's offering of 1202)...

There is also a "chart gap" there (10 min. charts) between 1202.48 and 1206... Some ALGOS might want to fill that gap... & the FIBO extension 1203.84 falls right inside that...

JTOL

Nic said...

When Fitch downgraded EUR it bounced - market thinks it will trigger aid faster.
Moodys says will downgrade again on default. Im still selling rallies but it is a big support level to get through

McFearless said...

Manny, we get killed with CC mailings here in DE. All the credit card companies are here, MBNA used to rule the state with their "MBNA green" paint....the color of money.

CV said...

@Manny

@cv: I think the market downgraded Greece a long time ago.....

I think the Persians downgraded the Greeks at Thermopylae...

CV said...

@McF

CV NEVER LOST FAITH in the idea that we'd see 5 waves on BUCKY (pats self on back)...

I-Man said...

@ C

One thing I'd like to toy around with someday is taking these "layered channels", and drawing the midlines based off fibo's... and seeing what ends up coming to light...

Do you follow me?

Then once those midlines are in, running gann's off the pivot highs and lows...

I better shut up now.

bob said...

Just saw the US housing data, more houses sold on declining prices, imagine that....

CV said...

@Nic

When Fitch downgraded EUR it bounced - market thinks it will trigger aid faster.

It's just amusing to me to watch all these agencies, central banks, politicians, whoever continuing to think they can just flap their gums and hold the markets back (from what it's eventually destined to do)...

CV said...

@I-Man (10:53)

I know what you're talking about, but I think it's just easier to overlay the different things...

That provides as clear a picture as anything else...

CV said...

@I-Man

My basic method is I always start with FIBOS...

Then I go to WAVES...

Finally price channels...

But that's just me...

McFearless said...

C,

that could very well end up being the right call on the dollar so way to stay strong, but we just don't know yet. In any event, I got waves 1 and 3 so I'll just have to be satisifed with that. Selling too early has been an issue for me now for 12 months.

CV said...

The reason being is that the "waves" always anchor themselves to areas around FIBOS...

bob said...

DJT up on Ryder. I want the chance to write some headlines-

Ryder gains on people living out of rented trucks.

CV said...

@McF

You did fine on that trade...

That's why I sold my FXP this morning...

I made a "1" and a "3"... I still think it could do a "5" (but I got a little of a start on that today and decided to cash out and go home...

CV said...

My "issue" is that when I type I always forget to close parenthesis... :-)

Nic said...

Greece Govt Bonds - May10 bonds offered on the screens at 99.24. That's 17.5% yield, although yield is now irrelevant
I don't know how long this rally in EURUSD will last.

Nic said...

2yr Greek yields at 10%, those are panic levels.

CV said...

@McF

If 1213-1183 was a wave 1 down... and we're just tooling around here completing mini waves in the anticipation of a "3" down...

It's going to be pretty megagalactic...

CV said...

We'd probably be talking about the 1120's on that move...

CV said...

@Nic

2yr Greek yields at 10%, those are panic levels.

They'll "strike" so they don't have to pay that kind of interest :-)

McFearless said...

What kind of risk/reward are you getting even buying those at 10%.

Still seems dumb to me, but you know, I don't manage a pension or anything.

CV said...

No "triple bottom" on FXE... 132.37 was taken out to the downside...

Can anyone say 129 handle?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV said...
My "issue" is that when I type I always forget to close parenthesis... :-)

...My issue is I can barely type. I took typing in HS for extra credits....the typing teacher always referred to the other students as typists, me she referred to as "the keyboard striker"...

Nic said...

They have really screwed up Greece. They don't seem to be able to agree on how to help it because there is no central authority. While they talk about it Rome is burning.
If they had not done a faux bailout package and just kicked them out of the EU or forced austerity measures on them as a condition of staying in then this would all be over now.

I-Man said...

CV, thats not exactly what I meant about fibo's within channels, but we'll go over it some other time.

CV said...

@McF

You get the satisfaction of knowing you're helping a worthy cause...

McFearless said...

C,

third waves are typically the strongest so yeah, that'd make sense. Like I said above, I'm still primarily on the count that says we get a B wave here, but the alternate for me is that a third is next.

Wave 2's are a real bitch b/c you can retrace basically all of wave 1 and still not technically break any of the EWP rules.

CV said...

@Bruce

CV uses the "hunt & peck" method...

But I can bang out about 60 words a minute that way...

McFearless said...

@Nic, 11:12

It's pretty tough to beat deflation in a credit based system isn't it?

some might say it's....impossible.

I-Man said...

Did someone just set the SPX to "simmer" or something?

Its like we havent moved since the EUR announcement.

Nic said...

Yes McF I agree

McFearless said...

headline of the day so far:

Obama will ask Wall Street to drop efforts to block financial overhaul


WTF, UFB, and all the others....

So I'm straight, the president of the United States of America is asking the banks not to block his attempt, which is ultimately supposed to be "the people's" attempt at stopping this insanity.

My eyes are permanently rolling

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, my typing teacher thought my girlfriend was wonderful, so she passed me. That may have more than a grain of truth in it....

CV said...

@McF

If you're not busy, take a look at the chart that I put into this thread... (& I'll let you know how the FIBOS line up)... some you can "see" but it's not annotated...

The 1188.43 line is a .021 pullback from the 1213.92 high... You can see the final wave count under that...

In any case... FROM 1188.43 back to the high, 1208.20 are two SHOULDERS (of a FAILED H&S yesterday)...

1208.20 was a 78.6% retrace from 1188.43 to 1213.92

Pretty cool, huh? :-)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Nic at 11:12..

Agree with that.

McFearless said...

Sorry C, while you were putting up charts I was talking to clients and scheduling an interview to talk about the 5 star wealth manager award I just got here in DE.

lololol.

McFearless said...

C,

that is pretty cool, I love when Fibbo's happen, never ever gets less fascinating for me.

when you put that five down pattern on there was that a program that drew that out for you or did you do that yourself? Just curious since is shows alteration in the 2&4 and I don't typically see the programs draw them that way.

McFearless said...

speaking of H&S, RR has been pointing out this pattern (inverse H&S) in gold for about two or three weeks now, I'm not trading gold but it looked to me to be setting up for the same pattern failure as the market did last summer.

karen said...

Smart Money Tracker has a little egg on his face:

http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

"Needless to say shorting something like this is suicide, although I think by now we've all learned our lesson about shorting this cyclical bull."

McFearless said...

I've yet to see a compelling argument for why this is a bull market that didn't include the assumption that the Fed would have its way with things. also, most of the economic discussion that backs that bullish argument is based on the same flawed economimc logic that got us into this mess to begin with.

CV said...

@McF

No... That is HAND DRAWN (based on my visual interpretation)... I don't have any "wave drawing" tools)...

I just hand calculate the FIBO extensions and try and draw waves visually as I see the levels getting hit and reversing...

CV said...

@McF

I made a similar comment on GLD the other day...

I think I was calling for a mover to 105-ish... like... SOON!

Nic said...

Markets like symmetry with fibs
If you put fib retracement from Mondays low to early Wednesday mornings high:
We pulled back to 50
then went up to 23.6 (23.6 means 78.2 next)
down to 78.2
back up to 50
now we go down to test Monday low

Nic said...

thats probably all bo**ocks, just my view of the world

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Copied shamelessly from Mish:

A 65-year-old man walked into a crowded waiting room and approached the desk.
The Receptionist said, 'Yes sir, what are you seeing the Doctor for today?'

'There's something wrong with my dick', he replied.

The receptionist became irritated and said, 'You shouldn't come into a crowded waiting room and say things like that. '

'Why not, you asked me what was wrong and I told you,' he said.

The Receptionist replied; 'Now you've caused some embarrassment in this room full of people. You should have said there is something wrong with your ear or something and discussed the problem further with the Doctor in private.'

The man replied, 'You shouldn't ask people questions in a roomful of strangers, if the answer could embarrass anyone. The man walked out, waited several minutes, and then re-entered.

The Receptionist smiled smugly and asked, 'Yes??'

'There's something wrong with my ear,' he stated.

The Receptionist nodded approvingly and smiled, knowing he had taken her advice. 'And what is wrong with your ear, Sir?'

'I can't piss out of it,' he replied.

The waiting room erupted in laughter...

karen said...

my fantasy: once 1188 goes, i want 1150 to break..

CV said...

@karen

Once 1188 goes, it probably has to take out 1172.65 (as a "way station") before it makes an attempt at 1150...

McFearless said...

Great link from a poster at Dan's, as we've discussed here a week or two ago and even before that, read the quote for number 20:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

72bat said...

off to jolly old england and the emerald isle, returning may 4. hoping that's far enough away that i can replace manny as the out-of-town-market-goes-down indicator

McFearless said...

it's become quite clear that people are going to buy every single dip in p3, who knows how low it will need to go before people give up on that but I'm thinking low.

Fresh in the minds will be the fact that in about 12 months we rallied huge off the lows during the intial wave down. We aren't any smarter than we were in 1930, aside from the higher educated at TBP that is.

McFearless said...

have a nice trip 72. Be safe.

Nic said...

Have a good trip 72Bat

CV said...

@karen

FWIW - CV likes the 1104 area as a pullback...

It would match the .09 pullback levels that we saw last June and in January...

Also, looking at MONTHLY candles...

It seems to CV that we're working on resolving the LEHMAN candle (September '08 MONTHLY)... The bottom of that tail is 1106... And it would serve to acts as kind of a "shoulder" for the December '09 close of 1115...

MONTHLY 3lb wouldn't reverse until 1056 (so that still may be a ways off)...

So at this point, I see a "correction" to around the KT zone, followed by one more effort to push the market past the LEHMAN BARRIER (say - into the close of the 2nd quarter)...

Right now, technicians and many people are wondering "what it would take" to push this market higher...

Answer: a SUPPORT down near 1105...

CV said...

@McF (12:01)

Last sentence - LMAO :-)

CV said...

Good trip 72!

karen said...

CV, in full agreement/concurrence. darn that 1172.. then again, expect the unexpected..

Bon Voyage, Bat! keeping my fingers crossed for you!

CV said...

@McF

"higher educated"

Do you mean to tell me that your status on the DRINKING TEAM at Penn State counts for nothing?

Anyway, IMO, people who feel the need to draw attention to something like that... well... You can fill in the rest of that thought with your own ideas...

Educated OR NOT (as the case may be)...

CV said...

@karen

The thing is though (1172)... There was about 8 days of work done at that level (plus a subsequent RETEST)...

So if it DOES take it out, it ought to take it out with a vengeance!

CV said...

There will be a boatload of high volume selling there...

McFearless said...

C,

In case you didn't get my joke earlier about talking to clients that's what it was, a joke. I didn't really mean to say you were just a farmer that wrote about the markets....;)

and yes, I became an expert beer drinker that's what they meant by well-rounded right? Or maybe it was the beer gut they were talking about.

CV said...

@McF

Roll out the barrel! Hey let's do some POLKA!

I-Man said...

Has the emperor begun speaking yet?

CV said...

If this doesn't take the cake...

Obama Doesn’t Intend to Give Back Goldman Campaign Donations

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aONrb3LGeEr4&pos=9

Somebody get me an oxygen mask because I'm drowning in this crap!

CV said...

Oh...SURPRISE SURPRISE!

In Addition To Greece, EuroStat Report Catches Portugal Lying About Its Budget Deficit As Well

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/addition-greece-eurostat-report-catches-portugal-lying-about-its-budget-deficit-well

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Unexpectedly lying...

CV said...

@Bruce

Their efforts at lying were "better than expected"...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

"All hell is breaking loose in Europe on the just released EuroStat report which presents an "objective" look at various countries' realistic debt and budget deficit pictures sans governmental propaganda and lies. And while Greece is getting pounded for good reason, another country where the discrepancy between estimates and reality was even worse is Portgual, whose deficit EuroStat disclosed at -9.4%, on expectations of a -8% number. In the meantime GOLDMAN is reaping a veritable bonanza trading 1 Year Greek CDS (which is at 900 bps) which now has a 200 bps bid/ask spread! Other entities getting bushwhacked as a result include Ireland, which is 23 wider at 173 bps (nothing flattering about the Irish in the EuroStat report either), and Banco Comercial Portugues SA which is 38 bps wider to 297. PIIGS are officially in freefall after the truth has finally set them free.

http://www.reallibertymedia.com/content/addition-greece-eurostat-report-catches-portugal-lying-about-its-budget-deficit-well

...Lunchtime, nothing to see here, Goldman buys Asia will headline tomorrow's economic news...

CV said...

@I-Man

"the emperor" is practicing on his fiddle...

karen said...

i am having an anxiety attack now.. make that two oxy masks, pls. SRS red again?? UFB.. i am overwhelmed with disgust..

Nic said...

Portugal was supposed to be the innocent one who did nothing wrong ... sigh.

In happier news:
http://www.bloomberg.com/bb/n/aafr7KMv46RY

CV said...

@karen

Want to have an aneurysm?

Take a look at the CAKE chart...:-) - LOL

Cheescake bitches!

karen said...

CV, i knew they got upgraded, was afraid to look! i used to trade cake, lol.

CV said...

@karen

That effective puts CAKE higher than ANY '07 levels...

They ought to put it in the DOW! - LOL

karen said...

cv, if cake is luck they will be able to eek out a $1/sh earnings.. they're current PE is 42 plus.. oh, yes, that makes sense..

Nic said...

Look at natgas!

CV said...

"Let them eat CAKE!"

CV said...

Woman sells small town on eBay

http://specials.msn.com/A-List/Woman-sells-town-on-eBay.aspx?cp-documentid=23972280&imageindex=1

I-Man said...

I'd like to see what Johnny A has going on with Natty...

Any thoughts "Lurker T"?

karen said...

i can't find the news that took the market higher at 1pm so i'll just assume it was the black boxes..

AmenRa said...

Karen

Since Boeing was BTE maybe they're positioning for the Durable Goods report tomorrow.

CV said...

@karen

I think it was "the indices" (which were leading us higher)... LOL

karen said...

darn, another dip i didn't buy.. i am the definition of insanity.

CV said...

@Amen

I just thinking they're drawing crappy little A-B-C waves until time runs out...

I-Man said...

See, now THATS how you pump an index...

McFearless said...

lol, so, B wave then. ha!

CV said...

The Madden Curse arrives at the doorstep of Drew Brees...

Brees selected for COVER of Madden '11

McFearless said...

More on the GIB, she couldn't pay her mortgage:

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7018478037

CV said...

NFL Draft starts tonight at 7:30PM at Radio City Music Hall...

BinT said...

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-news/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=10460023

By Matthias Sobolewski
BERLIN, April 21 (Reuters) - Germany's main opposition party threatened on Wednesday to block government plans to fast-track approval of aid for debt-ravaged Greece, potentially delaying a critical bailout for weeks.

Against a backdrop of looming key regional elections in Germany, the budget spokesman for the Social Democrats (SPD), Carsten Schneider, said his party did not want to rush through any bill that might result in the government issuing guarantees for billions of euros worth of aid.

"We won't go along with this," he told Reuters. "First the government can't decide what they want to do and now they want to put us under pressure with the legislative process."

Chancellor Angela Merkel's government had hoped to win accelerated backing for aid if Greece makes a formal request for support, something her finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday that Germany needed to brace for.
Polls show Germans are strongly opposed to a bailout for Greece, and Merkel has been reluctant to pledge any aid in the run-up to elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the country's most populous state, on May 9.

Aid could be pushed through the Bundestag lower house in 1-1/2 weeks if the opposition cooperated, Schaeuble told a parliamentary committee.

McFearless said...

Too bad LB is golfing today, we could use a funny joke about Ze Germans.

McFearless said...

C,

My prediction is that my Raiders pick a super fast guy that will amount to nothing.

spokesperson for Leftback said...

Having a great time.

Wish you were here

CV said...

@McF

There's always the chance that the Raiders trade away a pick for Ben Rothleisberger...

I doubt it would be a #1 though...

CV said...

@McF

But it could be (#1)... There are some rumors flying around that the Raiders would give up the #1 pick and Nnamdi Asomugha for Rothleisberger...

Then the Steelers would draft Jimmy Clausen...

BinT said...

I spoke with Leftback a few minutes ago..ever see the movie Tin Cup? Lefty has had to go back to the clubhouse to purchase a few more Titleists....

CV said...

@karen

We're at the 1202 area you mentioned earlier...

And IN that GAP FILL area that CV mentioned at(10:49) above...

McFearless said...

C,

Well, I wouldn't mind Big Ben, and given his recent issues he'd be a good fit for the Raiders.

Bruce,

How is business for your salt mine generally? Seems a real mixed bag with my business owner clients. I have a few that will always say business is good, some that are doing well and some tell me things are bad.

CV said...

@Bruce

LB uses "Callaways"...

McFearless said...

From Rosie today, as a follow up to my Octomom link;

Finally, we saw a reference in yesterday’s Financial Times indicating that at least six million American households are no longer paying their mortgage and are living for free in their home because the banks don’t want to evict them and become a reluctant landlord or have to bite the bullet and write down the value of the property on their books. Right there we have a situation where at least $100 billion of consumer cash flow that has been freed up for fun and games in the name of strategic mortgage defaults. Again, this is hardly a sustainable underpinning and hardly a positive force for banking-sector interest income. But time has been bought, of that there is little doubt. However, something tells me the day of reckoning lies ahead, both for an economy breathing fumes from a wide array of government stimulus measures and an equity market that is currently overpriced to the tune of a full standard deviation point relative to historic valuation norms and investor sentiment that is wildly bullish.

CV said...

@McF

When P3 gets going, Bruce ought to be doing GREAT business fixing all those "paralyzed" & "shocked" expressions on peoples faces...

CV said...

@McF

If that trade for Big Ben doesn't happen, I'm thinking the Raiders draft Bruce Campbell (from Maryland)...

But UNDEAD AL could always do his usual stupid thing and take Taylor Mays from USC...

I-Man said...

What do you think about the odds of TO ending up with the Skins?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben,

Even though it is my duty in life to make sure Leftback gets his daily needling, I read each of your comments with continuing interest.

In my business, even when I practiced in a very large city, Jan and Feb were always a little slow. This year here same thing, but I have been very busy the last two full months. I scheduled 6 cases yesterday, my birthday, and two more today for next week.

It appears to me that Obama may ruin health care delivery. I am on board that costs are too high, Manny and I have discussed that several times. But I don't like how Obama's plan goes from A to B, in my tiny mind, it looks like in 6 years we are all dependent on government medicine.

But I am as content as a dead pig in the sun. Many physicians in this area have really started advertising, strongly, so my experience may not be normal.

McFearless said...

McNabb and TO back together again? That'd be strange or maybe normal for the Skins.

I think Eric Berry ends up the stud of this draft.

CV said...

@I-Man

What do you think about the odds of TO ending up with the Skins?

Less than zero...

McFearless said...

Bruce,

thanks. I can't speak very well on the health care issues so interesting to see your view. I try to tackle your business from a socionomic perspective, on one hand I could see negative social mood making people desire to cover up things they don't like, on the other hand, negative social mood also causes the thinking of being content with what you've got.

Not sure I have anything interesting to say lately beside my borken record routine. At least I don't bounce off my thesis easy. When we start impulsing down again my mojo will come back. Until then though I'm having a hard time like everyone else.

CV said...

Eric Berry will CLEARLY be a stud but the "unwritten rule" is that you don't draft SAFETIES in the first 5 picks...

I have Berry going either to Seattle (at 6), or Cleveland (at 7)...

At that point, he's the best player available so teams would FORGET about drafting for NEED and simply go with the best player on the board...

I-Man said...

I'm long Eric Berry...

karen said...

i can't find my post on the 4% tax added on to SF restaurant bill so i'm reposting:

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/04/22/read-this-then-pay-a-drifter-to-throw-you-down-a-flight-of-stairs/

CV said...

TickerGuy Contemplates

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Excerpt: "And Katia wouldn't blow its stack, destroying the "global warming" alarmists argument in one quick blast, rendering "cap-and-scam" worthless along with all of the rest of their hot air, would it?"

---

Hey... It's nice to know that TICKER GUY has the same "thought process" as CV...

I've opined that to solve "global warming" we ought to take all the nukes we want to dismantle and just toss them into all the major volcanoes & calderas of the world...

That would solve the problem "lickety split"...

CV said...

AAPL is going to print 265 or BUST...

CV said...

Here...

You get the "AAPL ASSHAT" award for your efforts...

http://rlv.zcache.com/apple_ass_hat-p148938994452339550t56x_210.jpg

karen said...

4% healthcare tax, that is..

CV said...

or, ben, maybe YOU get the apple asshat award for coyly taking your profits last year on that...

Sorry... I'm not rubbing that in... I'm just "channeling the lunacy" here...

McFearless said...

lol CV, I believe it was Eric Tyson that called me out for saying if you bought aapl at 80 it wouldn't be a bad idea to take profits at 120.

I suppose that RE guru gets the last laugh on this one.

and, btw, the Apple Asshat award def. goes to the one on the left:

http://www.mediabistro.com/webnewser/personalities/fake_steve_jobs_says_cnbcs_jim_goldman_got_punked_over_apple_reporting_105906.asp

CV said...

@McF

All I can say in reference to Apple is...

In a WILLIAM TELL kinda world...

This is the "overture"...

karen said...

Jeremy Grantham on Existing and Developing Bubbles

Nic said...

McF what does GIB stand for pls? I keep seeing it.

CV said...

@Nic

Global Idiot Bubble

karen said...

Fantastic Epicurean Dealmaker post!

http://epicureandealmaker.blogspot.com/2010/04/didja-miss-me.html

Nic said...

New highs for GS, strap on your seatbelts for the northbound rocketship

I-Man said...

I thought it was...

Goldman Is Babylon.

McFearless said...

I remember Grantham saying this about the crisis (from my own memory)

In the short run we'll learn a little about the crisis, in the medium run we'll learn a lot, and in the long run we'll learn nothing.

My comment:

who knew the long run would be 13 months.

McFearless said...

alright, buckle up for the C wave, time to start planning out put purchases.

Nic said...

The PPT have come back from lunch and are gunning the SPY

CV said...

@karen

I think you juxtaposed links there from (2:23)...

It wasn't a Grantham link (which I'd like to see)...

CV said...

@I-Man

1211 bitches! :-)

Lord John said...

Karen,
Interesting links today, thanks!

karen said...

the grantham link, sorry!

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/jeremy-grantham-on-existing-developing-bubbles-3912.html

CV said...

@McF (2:33)

Yeah... this is all good...

This is the one I've been waiting for...

CV said...

@karen

thanks k :-)

McFearless said...

how dare grantham hinting that commodities could be in a bubble, what with all the inflation.

AmenRa said...

Why am I thinking of the scene from "The Serpent and the Rainbow" where he says "I want to hear you scream!" Now just replace the guy in the chair with a bear and the guy hammering in the stake with a bull.

CV said...

Eur-USD is off in its own world meanwhile...

Markets are all oblivious to one another...

CV said...

Cheesecake bitches! :-)

McFearless said...

man that guy is smart, when asked where you should be to make money notice his extremely wise insight start to that answer:

"well the bad news is"

JG knows that people can't control themselves, the last thing anyone wants to hear is that you should be patient and stay safe.

also, he makes a point of nailing Greenspan every time he talks, which is great for someone like me.

CV said...

Uh-Oh... Perilously close to 200

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