TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 6.4.10 In Limbo

Morning Audibles 6.4.10 In Limbo

Don't ask me, I'm a friggin' ball!

But here are some numbers to mull over in your dome...

JUST ABOVE (stacks & stacks of resistance)
1105 = 200 Day Moving Average
1106 = Close of Sept 28th, 2008, the day the crash accelerated
1110 = .09 fibo retrace from 1219.8
1115 = 2009 close
1121 = 50% re-tracement of 666-1576

JUST BELOW (as in "lookout")
1101 = KT
1097 = Wangers Magical Mystical Number

So basically, CV has determined that the only thing holding up the entire market these days are karen & Wanger...

Now... What can either of you do about plugging that oil gusher?

529 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 529 Newer› Newest»

bob said...: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/04/252201/socgen-shares-hammered-on-derivatives-concerns/

Fuel to the fire

Get lower...; June 4, 2010 at 7:46 AM
McFearless said...: how low can you go; June 4, 2010 at 7:58 AM
CV said...: This is why I don't watch CNBC (or write blog threads which refer to NFP)...

Over at TWSWB

"Today is likely to be a very unusual Non Farm Payroll report. The reason why lay in the combination of several unusual factors, combined with the ongoing economic recovery from the worst recession in decades."

THE ONGOING ECONOMIC RECOVERY??? (spits coffee onto keyboard)...

TWSWB still holding tight to the TYPICAL RECOVERY trance...

Well, one thing I can say is this... If you keep "saying" it, you'll eventually be proved correct... I mean, I'm sure we'll recover one of these days...; June 4, 2010 at 8:00 AM
CV said...: @bob

Frankly - I doubt a lower open is the thing that BEARS are hoping for here...

If it tanks a little at the open (then holds the 1090 level), bears might start throwing in little towels all afternoon...; June 4, 2010 at 8:02 AM
CV said...: And for the record, CV is going to make zero comments about NFP...

I don't friggin' care and the number is inconsequential and irrelevant (unless your name is "Erin B Cups")...; June 4, 2010 at 8:04 AM
bob said...: CV

Agreed, it just seems like garbage dump time. Got something you want everyone to forget in 30 minutes, announce it now.

Currency markets are saying the same. Big blow off, now steadying.; June 4, 2010 at 8:06 AM
CV said...: @bob

I will say tho... I think it will be interesting to see how any kind of flurry of news items that hit the wire this morning hit the VIX...

Yesterday's candle was the start of morning doji star pattern (not yet confirmed)...

CV was staring at that thing all night trying to see which way that would break...; June 4, 2010 at 8:09 AM
CV said...: I even consulted my MAGIC 8 BALL on it...

No help!; June 4, 2010 at 8:10 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

With EURUSD breaking below the ECB "support" level the VIX is about to complete the pattern.; June 4, 2010 at 8:12 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Yeah I guess "4th time is the charm" on Goldman currency calls... LOL; June 4, 2010 at 8:15 AM
mcHAPPY said...: One thing I've been noticing:

Markets do not top on bad news. Thought for sure we were going down on April 16 after GS charges, but alas, we rose until April 26th.

I keep thinking back to January with the 5.7 GDP number, MSM crooned over it, but markets tanked.

I am expecting a 'great' jobs number *sorry CV, I know you don't care* followed by a ramp up to 112?/113?. Bear trap is set, IMO. A big drop lower is also going to set another gap to fill and I, along with a few others, am still waiting for 1115 to get filled.

If I am wrong though, and given my track record during wave 2's I most likely am, I will just be waiting for a break of 1069 to re-evaluate.; June 4, 2010 at 8:17 AM
CV said...: @Amen

I will say tho that it seems to CV that the "correlation" on EUR-SPX has seemed to falter recently...

I don't have data handy to back that up, but perhaps it just "seems" that way to me...

I'm talking VERY recently (like since "flash crash")... It could just be an anomaly...; June 4, 2010 at 8:17 AM
CV said...: @McHappy

Danny (from TopNotch Trading) in yesterdays video was talking about 1065...

I don't know how that plays into wave counts, but it would be annoying as hell for me to see a move down there followed by a move back up to finally test this 1110-1121 area...

That would be some BAD VOODOO LIMBO for CV...; June 4, 2010 at 8:21 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Why does CV get the feeling that by the end of the day... I'm going to be re-shaking that Magic 8-Ball and it's going to read...

MUST...NOT...CLOSE...UNDER 10,000; June 4, 2010 at 8:26 AM
McFearless said...: there are several valid wave counts going right now so I'm still holding old positions but not putting anything new on.....if this jobs number had come out 3 weeks ago in the middle of Greece really heating up then nobody would have cared, this week, it's "important".; June 4, 2010 at 8:26 AM
McFearless said...: we could have fun with the 8 ball thing, here's the list:

The 20 standard answers on a Magic 8-Ball are:

● As I see it, yes
● It is certain
● It is decidedly so
● Most likely
● Outlook good
● Signs point to yes
● Without a doubt
● Yes
● Yes - definitely
● You may rely on it
● Reply hazy, try again
● Ask again later
● Better not tell you now
● Cannot predict now
● Concentrate and ask again
● Don't count on it
● My reply is no
● My sources say no
● Outlook not so good
● Very doubtful; June 4, 2010 at 8:29 AM
McFearless said...: so the number is 430 and census workers is over 400.

Wow, that's a real bang report eh?; June 4, 2010 at 8:30 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @CV

I would agree. A drop to 1065 wouls be bad for bulls and bears alike - which is why it could very well happen!

In terms of time, things are starting to get sketchy. The wave 1 decline to 1040.78 from 1173 was 8 trading days. We now have 7 complete days for a possible wave 2. Within the first hour on Monday would be 8 complete days.

If the above is correct, we might be going much higher yet. This would only make things much worse in the end.; June 4, 2010 at 8:31 AM
Anonymous said...: BR's "ongoing economic recovery"-

I wonder if he'll be putting that same line in his posts ten years from now; June 4, 2010 at 8:31 AM
AmenRa said...: K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!1 K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!1; June 4, 2010 at 8:31 AM
CV said...: I think census should have been 100 (but they kept firing & re-hiring them to get the number up)...; June 4, 2010 at 8:32 AM
AmenRa said...: I guess Obama was given the wrong report...; June 4, 2010 at 8:33 AM
Anonymous said...: 430k jobs number-

not quite 700,000- but over half way there; June 4, 2010 at 8:33 AM
CV said...: @McF

and a 20 sided cube (used in Magic 8 balls) is called...............drumroll!; June 4, 2010 at 8:34 AM
CV said...: a "dodecahedron"; June 4, 2010 at 8:34 AM
McFearless said...: well, Ra, that's just it

CNBC now: "people are saying that the forex market was telling us this jobs report was 'leaked'"

a few days ago we rallied because the numbers were given to Obama?

pathetic.....and great strategy trading off the news idea of efficient markets.; June 4, 2010 at 8:35 AM
CV said...: @ahab

cue the Bon Jovi; June 4, 2010 at 8:35 AM
McFearless said...: now guys, look on the bright side here, average workweek up .1 for the month!!!!; June 4, 2010 at 8:36 AM
McFearless said...: I also enjoyed Steve Liesman stating that everyone that writes about the b/d adjustment is a conspiracy theorist.

I don't think he understands what a conspiracy theory is.....; June 4, 2010 at 8:36 AM
McFearless said...: And Robert Barbera.....what an asshole.; June 4, 2010 at 8:37 AM
CV said...: @Amen

I guess Obama was given the wrong report...

Actually, CV dug up the actual video footage of Obama's team getting the report...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRrMu7B1L2I&feature=related; June 4, 2010 at 8:38 AM
McFearless said...: C,

either that, or he really thought the 411k hiring of census was:

"A f*cking big deal"

Joe told him.; June 4, 2010 at 8:40 AM
AmenRa said...: March NFP revised down to 208k from 230k; June 4, 2010 at 8:40 AM
AmenRa said...: OT: Kobe's three at the end of the game was payback for blocking Fishers shot a few seconds earlier.; June 4, 2010 at 8:42 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Markets do not top on bad news - or so I hope.; June 4, 2010 at 8:45 AM
CV said...: New Presidential Order...

I hereby decree that the US will conduct a census on an ANNUAL basis...; June 4, 2010 at 8:46 AM
mcHAPPY said...: This is going to be a big gap at the open.; June 4, 2010 at 8:46 AM
McFearless said...: Kobe was awesome last night....Lakers looked tough.; June 4, 2010 at 8:46 AM
Anonymous said...: Bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.htm

Headline bloopers. "Wheat, corn climb on speculation biofuel demand to rise on U.S. regulation". But both wheat and corn futures red at 8.10 am.

Just U$D story. King $.; June 4, 2010 at 8:50 AM
AmenRa said...: I see no one mentioned that B/D was 215k; June 4, 2010 at 8:50 AM
Anonymous said...: CV @ 8:35-

that's funny(-:!!!

and it's so apropos- because BB, Geithner and Obama are-

"livin' on a prayer"; June 4, 2010 at 8:50 AM
AmenRa said...: Ben

Did Santelli rip Liesman a new one?; June 4, 2010 at 8:52 AM
Anonymous said...: "U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew at their fastest pace in 10 years in May, buoyed by recruitment for the census, but private hiring slowed sharply."

see- just a typical recovery- maybe Obama will pull a Marion Berry and put people on the payroll to get them off the welfare rolls; June 4, 2010 at 8:54 AM
Anonymous said...: that's "Barry" by the way; June 4, 2010 at 8:55 AM
CV said...: Look like Ritholtz basically wasted his time coming up with his thread this morning...

"Damn! 7 years of college down the drain"...; June 4, 2010 at 8:55 AM
AmenRa said...: Does temp workers get subtracted from the SA or NSA numbers? If SA then NFP-census-temp= 431k-411k-31k= -11k. Uh oh.; June 4, 2010 at 8:58 AM
Anonymous said...: well BR did roll up his sleeves and give it the "good college try"- lol; June 4, 2010 at 8:58 AM
Anonymous said...: b22 @ 8:35-

no doubt; June 4, 2010 at 9:02 AM
Anonymous said...: Marketwatch gloomy today.

After PIIGS, it's Hungary today.

"Hungarian economy in grave shape". Only Germany left standing?

"Goodbye to all that" -Florida faces another cataclysm if oil slick reaches its coast.; June 4, 2010 at 9:03 AM
McFearless said...: Ra,

No, Santelli didn't really say anything to him; June 4, 2010 at 9:04 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Well what's important is whether those 11k are "frustrated" or not...; June 4, 2010 at 9:05 AM
McFearless said...: guys what are you so worried about....the unemployment rate went down!

As for Hungary....this has been said before, if you understand the problems here with our central bank and our debt....then you understand ALL of them.; June 4, 2010 at 9:09 AM
Anonymous said...: speaking of Hungary- (Budapest a very cool city by the way)-

"Biggest Hungarian Commercial Bank Trading Halted On Budapest Stock Exchange"; June 4, 2010 at 9:09 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

U6 dropped more than headline (16.6 from 17.1).; June 4, 2010 at 9:09 AM
CV said...: @ahab

well BR did roll up his sleeves and give it the "good college try"- lol

Well, he's got that going for him... :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlVDGmjz7eM

I think this TYPICAL RECOVERY will occur based on all the "widgets" we're about to sell...; June 4, 2010 at 9:09 AM
Anonymous said...: This must be the dumbest administration ever - touting that POS jobs report all week?!? I honestly was expecting something like 800 or 900k, based on all the hype - wow!

-The Fourth Bee Gee; June 4, 2010 at 9:10 AM
AmenRa said...: Wow. Anyone look at an ES 15 min chart? Whoosh.; June 4, 2010 at 9:13 AM
AmenRa said...: HAHAHA didn't GS revise its NFP estimate up to 600k yesterday?; June 4, 2010 at 9:14 AM
CV said...: @anon

The Fourth Bee Gee isn't REALLY a President...

He just plays one on tv...; June 4, 2010 at 9:14 AM
Anonymous said...: wouldn't it be funny if BR put a LOL by his 700K figure-

you see- it was all a big joke-

hahahahaha; June 4, 2010 at 9:18 AM
Anonymous said...: Is BP a buy at this level, since they've almost capped the well. Look at all the news coming out BP this morning at marketwatch.com.; June 4, 2010 at 9:23 AM
CV said...: @ahab (9:18)

That's my whole point...

The few times that I have challenged him over there on this "typical recovery" rant, I've been met every step of the way with a "look down your nose" gospel of "crunching the numbers"...

Well if that's where "crunching the numbers" leads a person, I'll stick with my instincts...

A farmer doesn't need a Doppler Radar screen hooked into orbiting satellites to be told whether rain is coming or not...; June 4, 2010 at 9:27 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @Ben

I assume you saw EWI EUR/USD chart combined with their Alt count. I think this one might be playing out before our eyes. This will lead to quite a fall.; June 4, 2010 at 9:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Re, BR's 700k post:

Under the comments section, BR's own comment," Doh"

Dead Hobo is on the money.; June 4, 2010 at 9:33 AM
CV said...: @Anon

He also said, smugly, before the numbers came out...

"But anyone doing the research would have to use these factors."...

CV used his friggin MAGIC 8 BALL and got closer to the number... CASE CLOSED...; June 4, 2010 at 9:38 AM
CV said...: @Amen

5 red candles... But they really ran out of steam at the end...; June 4, 2010 at 9:40 AM
karen said...: short and simple! loved the morning post.. as i'm late to the table but but some sell orders in.. and will now catch up! and get some coffee !; June 4, 2010 at 9:41 AM
CV said...: @ben/McHappy

I don't know the details about EWI, but if this mornings LOW holds... wouldn't that be some kind of DOUBLE ZZ?; June 4, 2010 at 9:41 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Congress, Senate, White House have all spent their political capital on bailouts.

BR just used his final intellectual and forecasting capital defending this as a typical recovery.

Get ready for cold steel shorts. mcHAPPY is looking for green by the end of the day.; June 4, 2010 at 9:41 AM
mcHAPPY said...: CV,

I can't speak for Ben but I'm not sure what to call it right now. All I can say confidently is this is not P3.; June 4, 2010 at 9:45 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Sorry, this is not minor 3 of intermediate 1.; June 4, 2010 at 9:45 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

The 4th minute was green. Sneaky bastids!; June 4, 2010 at 9:48 AM
Anonymous said...: CV @ 9:18-

here is my read on BR-

I think he is what his site is- someone who looks at the big picture-

he always appears off his game when it comes to more nuanced and specific calls-

why he keeps touting the "typical" recovery meme is beyond me; June 4, 2010 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: this is hardly a drop.. not even at 1070 : (

i thot my limits were too low so i cancelled all sells, but now i'm wondering.. we didn't even break 10K !!!; June 4, 2010 at 9:54 AM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

Yeah, i did see that count on EURUSD, I actually didn't like it but they may have "nailed" it.

C,

regarding the ZZ, I'm still not willing to call that the top of the correction for a few reasons if we are counting but it could be def.

We have a nice channel formed up off the lows so we can just watch to see if it gets broken....otherwise, I'm still open to a larger correction still to come before going down hard again.

Big picture though:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhG-vLZrb-g

we're going down down....; June 4, 2010 at 9:55 AM
karen said...: see? yesterdays run up just softened today's drop..; June 4, 2010 at 9:56 AM
CV said...: @ahab

And that, my friend, is the ONLY ISSUE that I have been harping on (if you have been reading the fine print)...

But to CV, the ULTIMATE irony, is how a self Proclaimed BIG PICTURE guy, is sticking so steadfastly with that TYPICAL RECOVERY idea...

What's more BIG PICTURE that the possible error in that call?; June 4, 2010 at 9:58 AM
McFearless said...: "why he keeps touting the "typical" recovery meme is beyond me"

seems pretty obvious to me. dude, FusionIQ is getting BIG. They are opening offices all over the place and there are a lot of brokers/advisors looking for someowhere to go because they want to break away from the big names after these last few years, fusion gives you a lot more flexibility and BR is known on the street to be respected by both the common man due to the blog as well as big money players on WS. Now, can you name a company that tried to expand nationally that would put out messages, say, like MISH, or KD do daily?

The answer is no, there aren't any that do that.

BR wrote a post about two months ago about a huge client of his ("assets larger than many countries GDP", I think was his comment) and that the guy said to him "don't you have anything good to tell me"

Barry is still pretty widely known on WS as the Bear that turned bullish, I think he knows at the end of the day he can fall right back on that if we go down again. In the meantime, he's building a business and recovery sells better than doom.; June 4, 2010 at 10:00 AM
McFearless said...: karen,

I agree with you, I'm not getting to excited about the move down here...; June 4, 2010 at 10:01 AM
karen said...: Ben, i saw some of the game last night, too! spectacular! well, the selling can intensify as the hours go on.. i'm holding for now..fxe 120.2..; June 4, 2010 at 10:05 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

yeah, it was a good game, this could end up a classic series here.

I'm short with my old stuff but I haven't added to anything the last few weeks. Options are slowly getting a little cheaper here so hopefully I'm quick enough in acting and don't get left in the dust if we move down fast. I'm feeling pretty confident we'll see 800's on the S&P before the end of the year.; June 4, 2010 at 10:07 AM
I-Man said...: Zippidy Doo Da!

First off, I dont know what's funnier this morning?

The "Bangin" Jobs Number...

or

"Erin B-Cups" (almost scalded my throat on that coffee laugh...)

I-Man wants a weekly close below the flash crash low of 1065...

Probably wont get it this week, unfortunately. Really would like to see dip buyers this morning, fried by EOD.; June 4, 2010 at 10:08 AM
Anonymous said...: What's more BIG PICTURE that the possible error in that call?

I know- that's my point as well- being the big picture guy- you would think you could get that right

In the meantime, he's building a business and recovery sells better than doom.

no doubt- but if that's what he selling- but not really believing- that makes him a bullshit artist-

in any event- I think he plays it pretty conservative; June 4, 2010 at 10:08 AM
McFearless said...: so I'd have to imagine the calls for another stimulus are really going to heat up this month.

thoughts?; June 4, 2010 at 10:08 AM
CV said...: @McF (10:00)

I'm fine with that... And have pretty much figured that was the case all along...

What I resent though have been BR's denials (to me personally)... That it was all about the Benjamins...

Frankly, I don't care if its all about the Benjamins or not (I respect the right of a capitalist to make money)...

But if that's what you are... Why take great lengths to deny it?

- If you're a liberal (masquerading as an independent because it "plays" better)
- If you're a bear (but only put the BULL side of the ledger because it "pays" better)

Fine... do it!

But to me, it just enters you into a class with your basic politician...

Keep fucking that Chicken!; June 4, 2010 at 10:08 AM
karen said...: well i bot so many short positions this week i can't keep them straight : ) drv? tza?; June 4, 2010 at 10:09 AM
karen said...: but my $%#@ing vxx is still a point under..; June 4, 2010 at 10:09 AM
72bat said...: franklin411 comments on br's 700k post @ tbp:
"Meanwhile, consumers continued buying at a record pace, auto sales are skyrocketing, home sales are doing the same, manufacturing and service sector indicies show strong growth, air passenger traffic and volumes are at multiyear highs, and the recovery continues apace."
compared to what?
mish puts the “checkmark recovery” in perspective, e.g., with auto sales
at all of 1980s levels? give me a break.; June 4, 2010 at 10:10 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Not giving targets or trying to read squiggles (I've learned I suck at it!) BUT...

Into the close yesterday, the high was 1103.95, then 1103.82 was hit, then 1103.22 right before the bell. If I were to attempt to count squiggles:

1 was before the bell yesterday, 3 was the open, 5 is being completed right now.

We'll see but I'm due to be correct sometime soon.

Should be a good run up within the next hour or two.; June 4, 2010 at 10:10 AM
I-Man said...: Wow... EURUSD

Have fun back in the teens!; June 4, 2010 at 10:10 AM
CV said...: @McF

And ask yourself a question... (this is a LIFE question to CV)...

So let's say you're faced with the opportunity to handle the account for a major whale...

And what if that WHALE comes to you and says "don't you have any POSITIVE news"...

If you don't (and are forced to go AGAINST your inner beliefs just to satisfy the whale and keep the account), eventually it's going to come to a CLASH OF WILLS...

A house divided...

THE BIG PICTURE, to CV is that EVERYONE loses in the end in that scenario...; June 4, 2010 at 10:13 AM
I-Man said...: We'll know in about 30 minutes whether we hit 1072 before lunch...; June 4, 2010 at 10:13 AM
I-Man said...: Anyone else think the SNB has some collective heartburn right about now?; June 4, 2010 at 10:16 AM
CV said...: But I'll drop it because it's not my life or not my decision...

I'm just using the story line to express an opinion on that type of human behavior...; June 4, 2010 at 10:16 AM
McFearless said...: C,
I feel the same way, but I should probably call Barry right now and tell him over the phone, I mean, how dare I speak his name without doing it to his face. Childish.; June 4, 2010 at 10:16 AM
I-Man said...: I miss Nic, Bob fill us in on the fx...; June 4, 2010 at 10:16 AM
Anonymous said...: Is Barry kinda like a mortgage salesman?; June 4, 2010 at 10:17 AM
Anonymous said...: well 72b- as you must know- I caught that comment by f411-

the dude kills me- but he's grown on me over the many months he's posted at BR's and I'm not even sure why; June 4, 2010 at 10:18 AM
karen said...: "While we have had extremes down to the 1040s most of the action has been in about a 30 point box of 1070 to 1100. It remains difficult to do very much outside of daytrading until this is resolved."

a good post and chart: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/; June 4, 2010 at 10:18 AM
Anonymous said...: Is Barry kinda like a mortgage salesman

wow- it just doesn't get lower than that does it?

lol; June 4, 2010 at 10:20 AM
I-Man said...: Natty looks so good to me right now... If I only knew a way to trade it...; June 4, 2010 at 10:22 AM
karen said...: jnk is attempting to do something. the div payout was actually up a cent this month!; June 4, 2010 at 10:23 AM
CV said...: Going back to the charts...

Look - If equities can digest the WTE NFP, Hungary Spreads blowing out, a major bank going LIMIT DOWN, Soc Gen (remember Jan '08) supposedly caught in a derivatives blunder, the Euro in the teens, oil spewing out into the Gulf (as hurricane season approaches)...

- cats living with dogs

And the SPX still holds trendline... and the DOW still holds 10,000...

All in about 1 hour

I'd say the WORST that will happen will be that we chop sideways for perhaps another week... Notwithstanding that that "chop" may be in a wide range (per karen @10:18)...

Zigzags = ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ; June 4, 2010 at 10:26 AM
I-Man said...: Oh but Johnny Hour aint even over yet...

Lets not give these longs too much credit now... liquidation is rarely orderly.; June 4, 2010 at 10:27 AM
CV said...: Cue up the "Triple Lindy"; June 4, 2010 at 10:28 AM
I-Man said...: We havent even gotten to the "whirlwind" part...; June 4, 2010 at 10:28 AM
karen said...: this is a must read in light of today's jobs number:

Office Vacancies Turn Around "It all comes back to jobs."; June 4, 2010 at 10:29 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

One of these days I'll sell that HEDGE...

I'd like to be able to do it HIGHER than 1042...; June 4, 2010 at 10:29 AM
McFearless said...: Franklin411 has a worthless opinion on markets and the economy. Period.; June 4, 2010 at 10:30 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

Whirlwind... Ticker Symbol TAZ, right? :-); June 4, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Mannwich said...: Wow, weak ass jobs number.

Hey - I had one of those "magic" 8 balls as a kid. Wish I had one now.

Pathetic showing by my Celtics last night. Looked slow and lethargic. I'm guessing they'll play better on Sunday. They'd better or they are going to lose this in four five. Too many damn fouls called by the refs on both teams. Made for an ugly snoozer of a game to watch. NBA has gotten so soft in recent years.; June 4, 2010 at 10:31 AM
CV said...: @McF (10:30)

He's on a 40 year plan tho... Cut the kid some slack :-); June 4, 2010 at 10:31 AM
karen said...: June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross said Treasuries are the premier holdings for fixed- income investors with the U.S. economy failing to produce private sector jobs and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis threatening the region’s banking sector.

“The U.S. is the least dirty shirt,” Gross said during a radio interview today on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene. “The world is full of dirty shirts in terms of excessive debt, and the United Sates is one of those countries, but it still remains the reserve currency and still remains the flight to quality haven.”

Gross, Pimco’s co-chief investment officer and manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, said Treasuries in the 5- to 10- year range and 30-year debt has become “the focus for us.” He boosted his fund’s investment in U.S. government-related debt in April to the highest level in five months. The increase came even after Gross said in March that “bonds have seen their best days” during a separate Bloomberg Radio interview.

Treasuries are more attractive with inflation likely to remain subdued for now with the U.S. economy settling into what Pimco has termed the “new normal” of slower growth, heightened government regulation and lower consumption, Gross said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0ThPXOaEz08&pos=4; June 4, 2010 at 10:32 AM
Anonymous said...: and what a strategy- Walmart to decrease prices to increase sales-

I mean really- where else are these folks going to shop anyway?

If I were them I would increase prices-

that is if they want to increase their bottom line-

maybe by squeezing the Chinese manufacturers we'll hear more stories about Chinese factory suicides-

but no matter- at least the shit is cheap; June 4, 2010 at 10:32 AM
I-Man said...: AUDUSD will not hold 83...; June 4, 2010 at 10:33 AM
Mannwich said...: What scared me a little last night was KG - no lift anymore. Seems to be favoring that knee and leg a bit, or maybe he's just old and banged up. Definitely got outplayed big time but part of that was the guards not playing good perimeter defense on their own guys. I'll bet we see a far better overall game on Sunday by both teams. That game was very disjointed. Too many stoppages in play. I have to say this - Joey Crawford needs to retire now. He's the worst ref in the league. And that's saying a lot.; June 4, 2010 at 10:34 AM
CV said...: @Manny

"They'd better or they are going to lose this in four five."

You're probably accurate there... TWSWB had a thread up last night on Celtics-Lakers... Not a lot of comments, but one said "Lakers in 6"...

I'm like, "dude so I guess you think the Lakers are going to CLOSE IT OUT in the Garden"

Magic 8 Ball says "odds don't favor that son"; June 4, 2010 at 10:35 AM
72bat said...: i-man -
i don't know gas from **** (shart?) but re natty, short pipelines? e.g., dmlp, kmp, line, nrp. tclp?; June 4, 2010 at 10:35 AM
I-Man said...: Thats funny Ahab, since I left the South, I've shopped at walmart maybe... once.

But I've decided to "throw them a bone" and see about getting a new ipod boombox there this weekend for my new office.; June 4, 2010 at 10:35 AM
McFearless said...: C,

I would think that someone that "teaches" would review a little history, if you buy at the wrong time then it could take you 40 years to break-even. That dummy idea is a derivative of "stocks for the long haul" a product of peak social mood.

As RR is fond of saying: Money is made in the buying.; June 4, 2010 at 10:35 AM
Mannwich said...: Yes, karen. TLT.; June 4, 2010 at 10:37 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Chinese manufacturers we'll hear more stories about Chinese factory suicides

Dude... Did you see Colbert Report last night... He did a little schtick on that... I was LMFAO...

I gotta find it (and link it up here); June 4, 2010 at 10:37 AM
McFearless said...: Manny,

you are right, KG got worked last night....Rondo looked a little off as well. Made me think the time off hurt them a little bit.; June 4, 2010 at 10:38 AM
McFearless said...: an observation from retail land:

could just be for me, but this thing is starting again with people getting cranky because:

"I'm not getting any interest on my cash"

I keep thinking to myself; wonder whats they are going to say if I need to put them in t-bills with a negative yield at some point. LOL.; June 4, 2010 at 10:40 AM
Mannwich said...: Actually, cv. It's a 2-3-3 format in the Finals, which is utterly ridiculous and stupid, considering it's different from the rest of the series, but no matter. Games 3,4,5 are in Boston. 6 & 7 in LA.

Last night's game was close to a "must win" for LA as you can get, IMO. If they lose last night, then more doubt starts to creep in and they possibly lose game 2 as well, going to Boston for the next three games. Game 2 is still enormous. If Boston can win that one and go home and win at least 2 of 3, then they have two shots in LA to win it. Not bad. The 2-3-2 format actually favors the middle team quite a bit if they can steal one of the first two on the road and then win at least 2 of 3 back at home, which doesn't make sense at all if you're trying to reward the team with the so called home court advantage. Might be why only 3 of the last 27 NBA Finals have gone 7 games?; June 4, 2010 at 10:40 AM
Mannwich said...: I think so, ben. Maybe made them a little rusty and flat. I don't think we'll see that on Sunday, unless some of those guys (KG) really are hurt.

Gasol had the same number of rebounds as KG, Baby, Perk and Sheed combined. That's all you need to know.

And, in the "50-50" loose balls, LA won them 17-4.

Lastly, LA had 16 second chance points. Celtics? A big doughnut - 0.

Given all those stats, it's surprising they didn't lose by 25-30.; June 4, 2010 at 10:43 AM
Mannwich said...: And the ticky tack fouls putting Ray Allen out of the game a lot hurt. Let them fucking play the game for God's sake. We don't want to watch Joey Crawford calling little touch fouls all game. People don't pay to watch Joey Crawford but he seems to think so.; June 4, 2010 at 10:43 AM
Anonymous said...: and that Walmart post reminds me of a story-

a town I lived in was going to lower bus fares to increase ridership-

and I mean really- how funny is that-

like someone is going to start riding the bus because they lowered the fare five cents-

people ride buses because they have to- so the city would be better off raising fares if they are interesting in making it profitable-

by lowering fares all they do is cut into their revenue stream; June 4, 2010 at 10:44 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

re Colbert- no- didn't see it- but you got my curiosity piqued; June 4, 2010 at 10:45 AM
McFearless said...: oh man, I had to go read the comments on that thread...I see he's also trotting out Consumer Confidence as "never missing a beat", I'd rather not share there, because what's the point, but I love this data point on Consumer Confidence:

The all-time high for consumer confidence occurred in October 1968, with a reading of 142.3. The Dow topped two months later and lost 36% over the next 18 months. Conversely, in February of this year, consumer confidence hit an all-time low — and the DJIA bottomed days later. In April of this year, after the stock market rally had already started, the Conference Board consumer confidence Index leaped 45% to 39.2, the second biggest jump on record. The biggest-ever increase came in April 1974, when three-quarters of the damage from the 1972-1974 bear market was still to come.

but I guess just pointing out facts such as these indicate that I'm a permabear...; June 4, 2010 at 10:47 AM
McFearless said...: "this year" = 2009.; June 4, 2010 at 10:48 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Colbert

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/310025/june-02-2010/tip-wag---foxconn--charles-taylor---naomi-campbell; June 4, 2010 at 10:49 AM
I-Man said...: Well, you are "Bear22"...; June 4, 2010 at 10:50 AM
McFearless said...: Manny,

wow, those are some rough stats. Indeed looking at that you'd think they really would have lost by a lot more, that 4th foul on Ray was terrible, lots of bad calls last night, I also hate this technical rule, I'm not saying Kendrick Perkins isn't a spaz, but I don't like this hard fast rule about suspensions....unless you fight or something crazy, no suspensions in the playoffs. Seems to potentially penalize teams that make it to the finals.; June 4, 2010 at 10:52 AM
karen said...: NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said it plans to buy back as much as $15 billion of shares in a new program announced Friday at its annual shareholders meeting. The plan replaces the existing $15 billion program, which had about $5 billion remaining, Chief Financial Officer Tom Schoewe said. Wal-Mart has bought back $18.5 billion of shares the past three years and said it plans to pay more than $4.5 billion in dividends this year. Its annual dividend rose 11% to $1.21 a share this year from $1.09 a share last year.; June 4, 2010 at 10:52 AM
I-Man said...: Watch the Squid...; June 4, 2010 at 10:53 AM
McFearless said...: I am Bear22, but still willing to go long and even when I was....I was still bearish on the economy.

Little people that put a few hundred dollars a year in an IRA and think they know something after reading The Economist don't understand any of that though.; June 4, 2010 at 10:53 AM
karen said...: ben, put them in WMT!; June 4, 2010 at 10:53 AM
CV said...: @Manny

CV stands corrected... On game sequencing...; June 4, 2010 at 10:53 AM
karen said...: i'm too busy watching crude.. i swear it has been the tell of the last two weeks. and the euro, of course..; June 4, 2010 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: ben, teasing.. ko looks better.. : ); June 4, 2010 at 10:55 AM
CV said...: @karen

Have you looked over the past, say decade?

That's a hell of a "basing" period...; June 4, 2010 at 10:57 AM
Mannwich said...: No worries, cv. It's easy to make that mistake since no other series in the NBA playoffs is structured that way. I think it was devised back in the '80s when it was Boston-LA quite a bit and folks complained about the travel, so they went 2-3-2 to minimize that. But now you'd think they can change that since it's not as if the teams don't fly in luxurious conditions today. Flying on a private team plane for 5 hours hardly seems like a big deal.; June 4, 2010 at 10:57 AM
CV said...: @karen

sorry... looked over the WMT chart...; June 4, 2010 at 10:57 AM
karen said...: BR is posting some RR: 3 Psychological Phases of a Bear Market; June 4, 2010 at 10:58 AM
McFearless said...: from up above:

"Is BP a buy at this level, since they've almost capped the well. Look at all the news coming out BP this morning at marketwatch.com."

Another EMH argument right there. IOW,

BP stock goes down on bad news and up on good news while all the rational actors carefully assess the situation.

top kill "almost" worked as well yes?; June 4, 2010 at 10:58 AM
CV said...: @Manny

On the way to LA earlier this week, the celtics plane ran out of gas (and had to make a stop in Phoenix)... LOL; June 4, 2010 at 10:59 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

pretty funny, I knew BR must have been reading some RR because the top of RR's daily yesterday was listing out the index performance in the exact same order as BR did on his "in case you missed it (and seriously, how the hell could you have if you were involved in markets) the markets are down for the year" thread.; June 4, 2010 at 10:59 AM
I-Man said...: If GS fails at 144 and SPX breaks 1082 at the same time, then you've got one hell of a nice tell...; June 4, 2010 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: CV.. look at ko on a 20 year monthly chart.. that's how you all turned me into a rabid bear.. looking at charts like that over 20 years..; June 4, 2010 at 11:00 AM
karen said...: okay, I-Man.. i'll concede your 10:59, however, crude just broke 73..; June 4, 2010 at 11:01 AM
I-Man said...: And it all makes sense if AUDUSD breaks 83...; June 4, 2010 at 11:01 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

that Colbert piece is hysterical-

but on a serious note- that is the downside of getting your electronic gadgets at a great low price-

and KD makes me laugh- with his call for a boycott of Chinese made goods-

ok then- so where's the substitute product made elsewhere? How about there isn't one.; June 4, 2010 at 11:02 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @I

If you are crazy enough to try your hand at natty gas, on the TSX you can trade HNU (bull) and HND (bear) at 200%.; June 4, 2010 at 11:03 AM
McFearless said...: RR's PTI has been hanging by a thread the last couple days, it moved from 70 points bullish to I think now only 10 in a matter of a few weeks. It's been interesting to watch, the PTI was not a great indicator in 2008, didn't really warn you of anything until august or so as I recall, but this year it's been interesting because in the Fed sell-off it never really dropped, this time though, it's dropped like a rock.; June 4, 2010 at 11:03 AM
I-Man said...: LOL...

Naw, if I'm trading Natty, it will be with the big kids.

And I hear those are some expensive contracts to trade.

Best to forget I ever saw that chart.; June 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM
McFearless said...: I-man,

Andy might be able to help you with the Natty if you really want to trade it. He's got that man crush on Arnold and all.....; June 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM
Mannwich said...: I know, I know, jobs are "lagging indicator", but how "lagging?" Shouldn't we be seeing far more new REAL jobs generated at this point if this were a REAL recovery? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?; June 4, 2010 at 11:06 AM
CV said...: @karen

ditto on KO

Saint Warren's pride & joy... What happened to all those Chinese & Indians who were going to get hooked on the stuff?

What about AA? All those cans needed to be made, right?; June 4, 2010 at 11:08 AM
McFearless said...: Manny,

many compelling studies have come out in the last year showing jobs have become much more a coincident indicator than a lagging one; June 4, 2010 at 11:08 AM
Anonymous said...: very very interesting- check it out- new topic over at TBP-

"3 Psychological Phases of a Bear Market'

and BR opines-

As a pure guess, I think that if or when the Dow breaks below its March 9, 2009 low of 6547.05 (and I think it will) that will mark the end of the second phase of the bear market and the start of the third phase.; June 4, 2010 at 11:08 AM
karen said...: uh-oh.. i'm not liking crude's last two 5 min candles..; June 4, 2010 at 11:09 AM
McFearless said...: I heard KO was "bulletproof"?

Giant Moat or something.... drawbridges, snakes, whips, chains, whistles, yo-yo's, my grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger.

bwahahahaha; June 4, 2010 at 11:09 AM
McFearless said...: ahab,

that is not Barry!

richard Russell wrote that, not barry's call.; June 4, 2010 at 11:10 AM
karen said...: ahab, ahem! see my 10:58?! and that wasn't BR opining.. that was all RR.; June 4, 2010 at 11:10 AM
CV said...: @McF

I meant to say yesterday... There was a FANTASTIC socioeconomic treatise yesterday in Bloomberg...

It was an article on the recent phenomenon of PERFECT GAMES in baseball (3, should be 4 in the past year alone)...

Until 1980, there were only 8 perfect games in 80 years (one a decade)... In the past 30 years they've tacked on more than 16 (and in the last year alone, 4 more)...

Reversion to mean?... :-); June 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM
karen said...: okay, coast clear.. crude dropped after third scary candle.. back to 72.50 soon, i think.; June 4, 2010 at 11:12 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

you are right! I just caught BR's byline at the top-

and sorry Karen- I must have overlooked your post-

forgiven?; June 4, 2010 at 11:13 AM
McFearless said...: C,

I'd guess we'd have to go look at all the data, only stuff I've ever seen the socionomics guys discuss at length are which sports are bull and bear market sports and their forecasts for what sports should become popular in the bear market. In Prechters 2003 social prediction paper he said popular sports would be more violent, he envisioned a form a boxing only something that appeared more violent.

Enter MMA.; June 4, 2010 at 11:14 AM
CV said...: @McF

Baseball's Perfect Games Mirror Market Crises: Roger Lowenstein

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-04/black-swan-perfect-games-mirror-market-crises-roger-lowenstein.html; June 4, 2010 at 11:15 AM
CV said...: CV could further "extrapolate"...

That a PERFECT GAME means that there is no RUN PRODUCTION... No "offense"...

deflationary; June 4, 2010 at 11:16 AM
karen said...: ahab, you are in luck! forgiveness is one of my specialties, laughing..; June 4, 2010 at 11:18 AM
I-Man said...: Here we go...; June 4, 2010 at 11:19 AM
AmenRa said...: 1.2038 EURUSD
1.1070 EURJPY
1.3967 EURCHF
-2.45% BKX
-1.89% XLF
-1.58% BAC
-2.40% C
-2.39% WFC
-1.46% JPM
-0,16% JNK
+0.22% GS

What's wrong with this picture?; June 4, 2010 at 11:20 AM
I-Man said...: Now if we could only destroy that piece of shit, JNK...; June 4, 2010 at 11:21 AM
I-Man said...: I'll venture a guess that if we tag 1072 today, we close the week at or below 1065.; June 4, 2010 at 11:22 AM
karen said...: oh! it's my guy! The most important charts you'll ever see.; June 4, 2010 at 11:26 AM
bob said...: Been in and out this morning. AUDUSD not looking good, EURJPY now on weekly low, not good from an FX perspective.

Recent bottoms in EURJPY, latest first-
109.73
109.60
109.24(big one)
108.83

Already below flash crash low of 110.47

Still watching 82.50 area on AUDUSD; June 4, 2010 at 11:26 AM
Anonymous said...: whew- thanks Karen- I was worried(-:!!!!

re perfect games-

maybe w/ steroids being tested- the batters can no longer figure out how to hit a ball w/o being juiced-

or maybe the basemen and outfielders are just better than in years past-

or maybe the pitchers are just more studly-

speaking of which- did anyone catch the HBO show "Eastbound and Down" about a washed up pitcher-

it was on a few months back- same dude who was the middleman drug dealer in Pineapple Express-

pretty damn funny; June 4, 2010 at 11:26 AM
I-Man said...: Anyone have a good calimari recipe?; June 4, 2010 at 11:27 AM
McFearless said...: "What's wrong with this picture?"

Casting aside GS, the problem is none of those are down enough!

lol.; June 4, 2010 at 11:28 AM
CV said...: @karen

That's pretty much the chart I've had on my wall for the past, going on, 3 years now...; June 4, 2010 at 11:29 AM
CV said...: @ahab

maybe w/ steroids being tested- the batters can no longer figure out how to hit a ball w/o being juiced

and maybe, just maybe, if they stop trying to artificially prop up equity markets, they'll revert to MEAN (without being "juiced)...; June 4, 2010 at 11:31 AM
McFearless said...: well, if we are going to try and tie the baseball thing to social mood and markets (which I'm skeptical of) let me play along:

You want to know why there are so many more perfect games since 1980?

manipulation...pitchers are rigging games, or managers are, it gets more people to the games so the teams can make more money and then they jack up food and drink prices, you see the manipulation MAKES people buy the tickets, not their own emotions about being able to see a perfect game.; June 4, 2010 at 11:32 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

come on now, those charts got nothing on this gem:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/aftermath-of-secular-bear-markets/; June 4, 2010 at 11:35 AM
I-Man said...: No PHI for you, bitch... get back down.; June 4, 2010 at 11:37 AM
CV said...: @McF

How about this for social dynamics (as applied to TICKETS)...

The Florda Marlins can hardly put an ass in a seat... Even when the WORLD CHAMPION Phillies come to town...

So last week, when Roy Halladay (of the Phillies) came down and pitched a PERFECT GAME against them (with tens of thousands of UNSOLD tickets)...

The Marlins responded by PUTTING ON SALE the unused tickets for that game (as keepsakes)... For someone who wanted to "pony up" and pay for a ticket stub for a game they never attended...

To me, that says EVERYTHING about EVERYTHING...

- Desperation
- Fraud
- Conniving/Cheating capitalism
- Disregard for sanctity or truth in anything

Hey, but people learn well when their elected political leaders & bankers that they bail out are put on display every day...; June 4, 2010 at 11:38 AM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll out for a while-

will check in later; June 4, 2010 at 11:39 AM
bob said...: Perfect games are really boring to watch.

Maybe more beer sold.; June 4, 2010 at 11:40 AM
Mannwich said...: Wow, cv. You are right. That really does say it all. Sad. Nothing seems "real" or legit anymore.

@ahab: I watched that series and thought it was hysterical.; June 4, 2010 at 11:41 AM
Mannwich said...: And by the way, there were only 11,000 fans on hand to see Dallas Braden's perfecto in Oakland weeks back - on a gorgeous sunny day. Pathetic.; June 4, 2010 at 11:42 AM
CV said...: @mcF

That chart will be quite handy...

When the "SECULAR BEAR" ends...

And why put up a chart like that (on a SECULAR BEAR), if your philosophy is that this is a TYPICAL RECOVERY (which would assume the BEAR was a "cyclical" one)...; June 4, 2010 at 11:43 AM
I-Man said...: Price action looks pretty clean when it aint being dicked with constantly, dont it?; June 4, 2010 at 11:44 AM
CV said...: @Manny

Thing is... Dallas Braden (apart from the little incident with A-Rod a few weeks back - is basically a no name)...

You're talking WORLD CHAMPION PHILLIES & ROY HALLADAY (arguably the best pitcher of this generation)...

Still a bunch of "no-shows"...; June 4, 2010 at 11:46 AM
McFearless said...: C,

that is just plain strange to me, and I'm curious, how much did those tickets sell for?

GIB man.

also, is there perfect game/no perfect game adjustment for tracking attendance? ;)

I play little games like this in my head all the time to remind myself how silly many of the "data" points so many people drool over are.; June 4, 2010 at 11:46 AM
I-Man said...: 1082 is going to be a resistance level to watch next week.; June 4, 2010 at 11:49 AM
CV said...: THE MAGIC 8-BALL HAS BEEN RECONSULTED - ABOVE

Amen... Add your own breathless pauses between words... :-); June 4, 2010 at 11:52 AM
Anonymous said...: PBoC buying Euro assets.; June 4, 2010 at 11:54 AM
CV said...: @McF

Marlins...

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/02/1658824/sad-to-see-marlins-profit-from.html; June 4, 2010 at 11:54 AM
CV said...: @McF

"In this case, the Marlins are commemorating their own epic failure, selling souvenirs to their day of ignominy, profiting from being on the wrong side of history.

Even worse: They will continue to sell the perfect-game seats all season up to a full stadium capacity of 75,000, even though the baseball capacity is 37,000. In other words, they will be selling tickets that were not for sale that night.

They are charging full price for tickets to a game already played, in seats that (in effect) didn't exist. I'm not sure which is worse: the stupidity of the buyer, or the gall of the seller.; June 4, 2010 at 11:58 AM

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