TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 6.3.10 A "Technical Foul"

Morning Audibles 6.3.10 A "Technical Foul"

Basically... Today CV is handing out YELLOW & RED cards...

Basically... Every stinkin' day... The Egyptian God AMEN RA wraps the days activity with some impressive charts... But you REALLY have to look at them to understand how impressive they are...

It does NO GOOD to just read "Ra's" words and just offer a few typed TEXT of "thanks" and go on talking about oil spills... You have to LOOK at the charts themselves... They tell a story... What story do they tell?

- Is it the story of a "typical recovery"?
- Is it the story of a schizo market?
- Is it the story of QE forever?

Here was yesterdays offering...

SPX
Bullish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still kryptonite. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Back above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Currently not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.

Here was the chart...

There's A LOT of stuff on that damn thing!

- 3lb's
- SMA's
- candles
- major timelines
- FIBO levels

What else does CV need to say?

I don't know what to "say", but I can surefire tell you what I "see"...

Ask yourself a few questions (there are NO CORRECT ANSWERS to this, INSTEAD, simple hypotheses)...

- Are the Candles trying to stretch back to broken SMA levels?
- Are they trying to regain FIBO levels?
- Have they succeeded (if only temporarily) to navigate SUPPORT LEVELS?
- Can one see (given the proper degree of "vision") future candles and lines on this cart "designing" themselves in certain ways? If so... In WHAT way?

Are there certain points (not EVIDENCED on the chart itself - but what one might insert, by recollect, ONTO the chart)... That might allow the chart as a whole to take on a different perspective?

How does this chart INTERACT with other charts?

- of individual stocks?
- of other broad equity markets?
- of CREDIT MARKETS (which are the "daddy", anyway)?
- of CURRENCY MARKETS (which are the "stepdaddy", at least)?
- of COMMODITY MARKETS (or commodity currency markets)?
- of the political landscape?
- of the "political SPIN landscape" (or efforts thereto)?
- of the "GEO-POLITICAL" spin/landscape?
- of the "data release" calendar?
- of the UNSCHEDULED "data release calendar" (not that there IS one)...?
- of the "PRE-EMPTIVE" calendar (when deemed necessary by TPTB)?

CV has an algorithm to deal with this...

It's UNSCRIPTED... It's HARDLY "fail-safe"... But it IS... FLEXIBLE... You can not WRITE IT in a program (because ANYTHING scripted is destined to become obsolete the moment the hammer hits the chisel into the marble)...

There are long periods of BOREDOM in markets (punctuated by moments of CHAOS)... Those "moments" usually determine WINNERS & LOSERS (and, in the process, qualify those "Lipper Average Beaters" [whatever the fuck that is supposed to mean])

As for me?... I personally think that the DETAIL of these charts frame the potential for a story...

The "comments" provide further insight... (unless they are MISDIRECTED)... Not that every moment has to be on topic... Just that the ENDING NARRATIVE should leave you somewhere (and not SPINNING OFF into an unknown part of the galaxy)...

205 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 205 Newer› Newest»

karen said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; June 3, 2010 at 12:08 AM
karen said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; June 3, 2010 at 12:13 AM
AmenRa said...: LB's radar just set off an alarm :-); June 3, 2010 at 12:20 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

The fibo numbers on the left are using the low and the ones on the right are using the high.; June 3, 2010 at 12:22 AM
CV said...: @karen

As far as CV is concerned... You can be any number you want...

Metaphorically... In "Get Smart" terms... You'll always be "AGENT 99" around here...

She had, well... EVERYTHING!; June 3, 2010 at 12:22 AM
CV said...: @Amen

I particularly "GOT INTO" this chart (thus the thread)...

This is a "dangerous" admission, but CV has some character traits as JOHN NASH...

I don't SEE PEOPLE (or carry on conversations with them)... But I see PATTERNS (perhaps that don't even exist)...

Your PARTICULAR charts supply the adequacy of detail to see those patterns... In other terms, I'd likely have to superimpose about a DOZEN charts to "see" the same thing...

You're a GEM...

And your running commentary, daily, provides an anchor to the same...

It's a PRIVILEGE to pay you the vast sums I do (LOL) to stay on board...; June 3, 2010 at 12:32 AM
karen said...: CV, I'm in agreement with you on AR...; June 3, 2010 at 12:36 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

I see two declining wedges (one which was broken to the upside). But it's that second trendline (2/5-5/6) that the market is trying to avoid.; June 3, 2010 at 12:48 AM
CV said...: @Amen

2/5 - 5/6 particularly caught my attention...

But what I combined it with (my, "but what one might insert, by recollect, ONTO the chart comment from the thread, was ANDY'S "SLIDE 2 from this weekend...

For the un-initiated... CV now sees TWO particular battlegrounds...

The UPPER side start with the 60 min gap (just above 1110) and going all the way up to the 1130's (depending on ones AFFIXATION to EW or basic FIBO)...

&

The eye opening support that those lower candles illustrated (in your charts)...

Frankly?

CV thinks we simply "test" the upper & BLOW BELOW the lower in the coming month...

But they provide a VERY NICE FRAME for the pictoral...; June 3, 2010 at 12:59 AM
AmenRa said...: Prepping myself for the MSM whitewash when ADP comes in WTE followed by Initial Claims being WTE.

"Well it's not accurate and is usually off by a standard deviation compared to NFP. It's also a lagging indicator. blah blah blah"; June 3, 2010 at 1:05 AM
Anonymous said...: CV, Amen's charts may not tell me a story as colourful as it does to you, but still, there is a story that one sees.

Btw, EURJPY almost up over 2 big figures. Am watching the indicators to see a play for a very short term short there.

Also, Karen, what was that "best ever" comment @9.42? Us Asians are deprived of even that. LoL.

Prashant; June 3, 2010 at 2:35 AM
Anonymous said...: CV- another great post- you are a pretty smart dude-

also- ADP not too special this morning; June 3, 2010 at 8:42 AM
BinT said...: You guys are looking at the wrong figures. Continuing claims today...4666k...Translated:

"these figues are for (4) the devil's work (666)."

Sheesh....plain as the nose on your face!; June 3, 2010 at 8:44 AM
karen said...: Morning! I think I am up too early, however.. here are some pre-market thots from a friend:

Schizophrenic sessions, especially in Europe, in low volumes is what best described Equity Markets over the past couple of days. One should not underestimate the damage that has taken place in May: after all, it took only 4 to 6 weeks to wipe out several months of gains. But the aggressive declines did little to disturb the air of complacency as most investors seem to be glad that THE big correction is now out of the way, not to mention strategists on the sell side who have been rushing to buy "cheap European stocks". Yes, AMG data has reported by far the largest weekly net outflow from the equity funds and equity ETF’s ever recorded in the their 20-year history, $16.7 billion for the week through Wednesday. But at the same time, Individual investors are still holding 50.90% of their portfolios in stocks and stock funds according to the May 2010 AAII Asset Allocation Survey: to be sure, this is a 9.5 percentage-point drop from April and the smallest allocation to equities since May 2009 vs. the historical average is 60% but hardly a massive underweight?!?; June 3, 2010 at 8:46 AM
karen said...: 55 not better than expected.. 70 was expected, apparently; June 3, 2010 at 8:50 AM
Anonymous said...: also- some thought material from Infectious Greed- (hat tip BR)

The World Goes Middle Class, vs. the Case for Less

check out the declining household water consumption for Germany-

it appears that households are restricting use of resources on their own-

either knowingly or subconsciously; June 3, 2010 at 8:54 AM
karen said...: Investors seek gold solace.; June 3, 2010 at 8:56 AM
AmenRa said...: CNBS is reporting ADP as 75k which is wrong for May and wrong for the April revised number. Sheesh.; June 3, 2010 at 9:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Wedge on EURJPY looks to be finally breaking on the downside. Tried to chase it, got stopped out.

Regarding Gold, in India, owing to fall of Indian Rupee vis-a-vis USD over the past few weeks has meant that even though gold is off its highs, in rupee terms it is at an all time high with non-financial newspapers too putting the news on the front page. Just an observation.

Prashant

Before I forget, CV, the Gatsby post, I think was your best one yet.
"So we beat on, boats against the current,......"; June 3, 2010 at 9:05 AM
karen said...: copper now down 2% pre market.. just an observation. (Prashant, thanks for yours!); June 3, 2010 at 9:14 AM
mcHAPPY said...: CV

Been thinking about Fibo's lately in waiting for this to resolve. If you look at a 10 minute chart from May 25 you'll see:

May 25 - up 1 day
May 26 - down 1 day
May 27 - up 1 day
May 28 - down 2 days
June 2 - up 3 days??? (target end of June 4th/start of June 5th)

What would the total be? Why 8, of course!; June 3, 2010 at 9:22 AM
AmenRa said...: Good read on States' finances:
http://www.rockinst.org/pdf/government_finance/state_revenue_report/2010-04-16-SRR_79.pdf
Rockefeller Institute State Revenue Report #79; June 3, 2010 at 9:23 AM
karen said...: P&F for copper is still a bullish 398. altho for JJC is is a bearish 30 on the dbl bottom breakdown of 27 April. P&F for $spx is bearish 920; but bullish 129 for SPY.; June 3, 2010 at 9:24 AM
karen said...: "Safe haven buying of gold continues apace as investors continue to worry about the state of the global economy.
But, according to Nic Brown, head of commodities research at Natixis, many of the factors that have driven the yellow metal's significant rise over the last nine years have begun to turn. And, as a result the price of gold is likely to fall below $1,000, in the short to medium term, possibly as soon as year end."

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=105721&sn=Detail&pid=92730; June 3, 2010 at 9:28 AM
karen said...: My top could hold..; June 3, 2010 at 9:32 AM
Anonymous said...: 10:00 meeting-

will check in later; June 3, 2010 at 9:37 AM
karen said...: June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Network Communications Inc., the real-estate media company owned by private-equity firm Court Square Capital Partners, said it’s in talks with lenders about restructuring its debt.

The company, based in Lawrenceville, Georgia, didn’t make a June 1 payment on $175 million in senior notes and is negotiating with lenders, Network Communications Chief Executive Officer Dan McCarthy said yesterday in an interview.

Network Communications publishes listings of houses and apartments for sale and rent through its websites and publications such as Apartment Finder and The Real Estate Book. Companies owned by private-equity firms have sought to restructure their debt as falling revenue and profit make it more difficult to meet their interest obligations.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adHbwGH8SdVg&pos=7; June 3, 2010 at 9:37 AM
karen said...: Where we are and what it will take to get this rocket ship going..; June 3, 2010 at 9:44 AM
karen said...: "The point is this — is this as good as it gets? I have maintained that some releases (like ISM Manufacturing, for example) seem to be flashing late-stage before employment has had any opportunity to climb out of its ditch. Should this trend continue, and I suspect it may, it does not bode well for the sustainability of this “recovery.”"

(Check his ISM-Payroll Chart)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/as-good-as-it-gets/; June 3, 2010 at 9:48 AM
BinT said...: AmenRa:

That was a very good post on state revenue. And they saved the really scary parts for last!

BinT; June 3, 2010 at 9:53 AM
karen said...: check today's $tyx candle..; June 3, 2010 at 10:05 AM
I-Man said...: @ Ra, I hope you know how much your work is appreciated. I may not always take the time to say it, but know that I do.

@ CV, re: your Ripken comment last night, it doesnt show. You can always dig up some bomb literature to post, or some biblical wisdom, to sow the right seeds. My vote is for Tolstoy the next time you're feeling burnt.

@ Ahab, that comment you brought over from TBP was spot on... someone's been reading Armstrong.

@ Karen, must have been a fun night.

@ Ref, tough match last night, get some sleep...

@ Market, just be yourself.; June 3, 2010 at 10:10 AM
karen said...: oops, fxe dropping.; June 3, 2010 at 10:18 AM
karen said...: check fxe:fxy on 60 min..; June 3, 2010 at 10:19 AM
karen said...: another euro doom and gloomer:

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-euro-is-washed-up-—-but-the-dollar-is-no-better-39275; June 3, 2010 at 10:20 AM
karen said...: zerohedge

Rumor ECB to suggest further unlimited LTROs weighing on euro; June 3, 2010 at 10:21 AM
Mannwich said...: James Altucher (get a haircut, makeover or something, Frankenstein. Good grief.) says not a "V" recovery but a "checkmark" one! WTF?!

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/06/dispelling-alleged-checkmark-recovery.html; June 3, 2010 at 10:25 AM
karen said...: likewise $xad:$xjy.. bound to break .73 now..; June 3, 2010 at 10:26 AM
McFearless said...: why spend money on a haircut when you can make a killing in the check market recovery.

yeah, and his arguments include, among other things:

earnings estimates.....estimates (hilarious)
and year over year % change charts on the Fed website (hilarious...+1?)

I also enjoy at the end as he's almost falling off the chair in his attempt to explain how great it will all be, which I think is his version of the Najarian brother mouth foaming, he whines:

"nobody will say I was right, they only do that with Roubini"

uh, yeah....sure, that's exactly what "they" do...riiiiiight.

Here is Mish on KD Lang's idea of the check mark:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/06/dispelling-alleged-checkmark-recovery.html; June 3, 2010 at 10:30 AM
McFearless said...: I also enjoy the bulls how they bring up this every time they give a "forecast":

the world didn't end

Sorry, this is lame to the extreme. The word didn't end? Give me a break. When P3 is over....the world will also still be around. Deflation IS NOT the end of the world.; June 3, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Mannwich said...: I would call it the "reverse checkmark" recovery. Maybe that's what Frankenstein meant?; June 3, 2010 at 10:32 AM
karen said...: guys! are you not watching the euro?! the market is about to rollover.. cliff dive, even..; June 3, 2010 at 10:37 AM
BinT said...: http://www.cnbc.com/id/37470582/

"Ahhhhh, summer. A season of fresh-cut grass, sun-filled days and an ice-cold brew.

Will this summer see the continuation of that trilogy of awesomeness or will the recession leave the cooler empty?

So far, beer shipments, which include grocery stores, restaurants and everywhere that beer is sold, are down 4 percent year to date, according to the latest statistics from the Beer Institute.

“Volumes are the worst they’ve ever been since Prohibition!” exclaimed Harry Schuhmacher, publisher of Beer Business Daily."

..Guys, this is an outrage. I plan to do some work this weekend to remedy this national problem. CV?; June 3, 2010 at 10:39 AM
karen said...: zerohedge- Did not realize Banko Santander's ticker is STD
half a minute ago via TweetDeck; June 3, 2010 at 10:40 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,
if we can get some sideways action right now for a few minutes and a hard down it'll look like a 5....but I'm thinking we are still in correction stage right now until we go down hard again. Lots of counts that *could work right now.; June 3, 2010 at 10:40 AM
bob said...: Risk off line is about 112 on the EURJPY, still above that.

IMO the EURUSD has become a play toy of the market makers and really doesn't correlate with much anymore.

IMO AUDUSD is still a good proxy for the stock market.; June 3, 2010 at 10:46 AM
bob said...: Karen, you are really distracting me now. I read that last word Deck, with an I.; June 3, 2010 at 10:48 AM
karen said...: from TraderMark:

As I type this the S&P 500 is flat after running into the simple moving average just as the ISM Services report was released. All set up for a "rocket fuel run" based on a "surprise" beat. But alas, not to be.

However a flat session in the first hour is deceptive. We are actually down 0.5% in my book. Why? Because all of today's gains came in the first minutes as premarket futures were marked up half a percent on essentially no reason.

So a pattern we've seen for much of the past year and a half
Premarket move: +0.5%.
Regular session: some sort of loss.

Today they happen to cancel each other out... leading to a flat day. That would be a negative day (at this moment of course) if not for premarket magic.

And this is why the premarket movement the past few years has become beyond annoying. And lest we pin the movement on 'great news' in premarket (a) the news was benign and (b) futures were up 0.4% before any news came out in the U.S. - and there was nothing of note overseas. It was just random magic.

There seems to be something unbalanced when a thin market, easily moved by a small slice of money (in the big scheme of things) can affect our day to day action so much.; June 3, 2010 at 10:48 AM
I-Man said...: Havent looked at any FX charts yet this morning, but I will.; June 3, 2010 at 10:50 AM
karen said...: now look at $copper/jjc..; June 3, 2010 at 10:52 AM
bob said...: EURCHF is about where intervention has happened before, new recent low, could mean more coming.; June 3, 2010 at 10:52 AM
I-Man said...: EURCHF!; June 3, 2010 at 10:55 AM
I-Man said...: But I want to see AUDJPY do the same, before I get excited.; June 3, 2010 at 10:56 AM
bob said...: The last time the swiss did an intervention it was late in the day and triggered a major spike in US equities.; June 3, 2010 at 10:57 AM
McFearless said...: I love how the GIB justifies its idiocy:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Owners-Stop-Paying-Mortgage-nytimes-4276925797.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode; June 3, 2010 at 10:57 AM
McFearless said...: well, rule out five for sure on the NAZ, I'm still thinking 1120's minimum....; June 3, 2010 at 11:00 AM
karen said...: Bob, also got this from ZH: "Report of think tank report suggesting SNB cannot maintain intervening in CHF"

And, I'm on my best behavior today. I'm not even going to say "I told you so!" to anyone if the market tanks..; June 3, 2010 at 11:02 AM
I-Man said...: If Karen's right, then this is the sell moment...; June 3, 2010 at 11:08 AM
karen said...: INTERLAKEN, Switzerland (AFP)--Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman raised doubts Thursday over a rescue plan for debt-stricken Greece which he believes still faces a 50-50 chance of ejection from the eurozone.

"Through monstrous sacrifice, what Greece manages to do over the next five years is increase its debt from 115% to 140% of GDP," Krugman told the Swiss Economic Forum, referring to a EUR110-billion rescue package drawn up by the International Monetary Fund and European Union in May.

"And for some reason, we're supposed to believe that as of 2015, Greece regains access to the [financial] markets and everything is fine. I don't quite understand why that's supposed to work," said the Princeton University academic, who won the Nobel Prize for economics in 2008.; June 3, 2010 at 11:15 AM
bob said...: Risk on thesis-

AUDUSD passed and is testing the 23.6 retrace from the recent high on 5/28, to the recent low on 2/25. Level is about 84.36.

AUDUSD is well above its low, with a lot of support under it. Early this week it was struggling but held the 50% retrace at around 83.

86 is about the 23% retrace from the Nov 09 high to the oct 08 low.

Its making a very good run at taking back that level.

A break below 82.50 negates all of the above.; June 3, 2010 at 11:16 AM
Mannwich said...: Hey Paul - It's not designed to "work". It's designed to kick the damn can AGAIN. The finance rascals and criminals know this is their last chance at the big money grab before worldwide GD II, so they're having at it while they still can.; June 3, 2010 at 11:20 AM
Mannwich said...: Teetering.; June 3, 2010 at 11:22 AM
karen said...: fxe at new low on day..; June 3, 2010 at 11:31 AM
mcHAPPY said...: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2364-Gee,-The-Census-Is-Full-Of-Fraud.html

Did anyone watch the above? It is incredible but not surprising. The more this goes on and the more things like this appear I am on board more and more with Mish and union bashing. FWIW I am part of a government workers union. I am waiting and actively preparing for the day austerity hits me. At that time I will support it - unlike most of my co-workers.; June 3, 2010 at 11:31 AM
I-Man said...: Algo's just went buy I think...

we'll see.; June 3, 2010 at 11:37 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @I

I agree. Running triangle or a contracting triangle appears to be forming - both take us higher. I reserve the right to be incorrect shorter term than longer though - haha.; June 3, 2010 at 11:45 AM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

The buying picks up when the EURUSD approaches its low.; June 3, 2010 at 11:46 AM
karen said...: Another for the UFB file:

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The U.K.'s Financial Services Authority said Thursday it has slapped J.P. Morgan's London arm with a record 33.3 million pound ($49 million) fine for putting its clients' money at risk by failing to keep it in a "properly segregated" bank account.

The regulator said that over a nearly seven-year period the firm failed to keep as much as $23 billion of its clients' cash in a properly ring-fenced account. That meant that if the business had become insolvent during the period those clients would have been classed as unsecured creditors and may have lost a significant portion of their money.

J.P. Morgan (JPM) only rectified the failure in July 2009, the FSA said -- meaning client funds weren't properly protected during the peak of the financial crisis as Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.; June 3, 2010 at 11:46 AM
karen said...: Goldman Ups NFP Est Due to Census
From GS...

1. The ISM nonmfg headline index stays unchanged at 55.4 in May. A slight decline in the new orders index (by 1.1 points to 57.1) is offset by a small rise in the business activity index (by 0.8 points to 61.1). The employment index rises modestly from 49.5 to 50.4, while the supplier deliveries index weakens half a point to 53. Although the inventory indexes (both inventory change and sentiment) rise strongly (by 8 and 7 points, respectively), these figures are not seasonally adjusted and it is hard to interpret inventory changes in the non-manufacturing sector.

2. We are raising our estimate for tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls release for May to +600,000 from +500,000 previously. This is composed of a Census contribution of +450,000 (vs. +350,000 in our previous estimate) and a private sector contribution of +150,000 (unchanged). We also expect the unemployment rate to decline from 9.9% to 9.7% and average hourly earnings to rise 0.1% (both unchanged from our previous estimate).

3. Factory orders rose 1.2% in April, a bit below expectations. There were few surprises in the durable goods components. Nondefense capital goods orders ex aircraft fell 2.6% but this followed a revised 6.7% gain in March.
POSTED BY MARK AT 10:44 AM; June 3, 2010 at 11:48 AM
McFearless said...: good read here:

http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2010/06/02/introducing-the-not-so-stylish-portuguese-haircut-analysis/; June 3, 2010 at 11:55 AM
I-Man said...: Alright! Lets get bizzy in this shizzy...; June 3, 2010 at 12:07 PM
I-Man said...: It really pisses me off that my soon to be FORMER employer blocks access to Reggie Middleton's site, because they are afraid of the TRUTH.

" The page cannot be displayed "; June 3, 2010 at 12:08 PM
I-Man said...: I-Man want no seat inna dem wolfpack congregation.; June 3, 2010 at 12:20 PM
AmenRa said...: Ben

I usually read Reggie on the weekends. Too much to keep up with during the week.; June 3, 2010 at 12:23 PM
AmenRa said...: Hmm NET $ VOL fully broke below zero around 12:14. Means more money is going into declining issues. It has been making new lows each minute.; June 3, 2010 at 12:27 PM
McFearless said...: Ra,

Understandable, his stuff is never light reading.; June 3, 2010 at 12:27 PM
I-Man said...: 1092, 1086, 1078, 1070...; June 3, 2010 at 12:31 PM
I-Man said...: Karen, did you crash?

You were like a hurricane there for awhile... must be the eye of the storm now.; June 3, 2010 at 12:34 PM
AmenRa said...: EURUSD approaching intervention level of 1.2150....; June 3, 2010 at 12:34 PM
Mannwich said...: Nice call, karen.; June 3, 2010 at 12:36 PM
AmenRa said...: I think the key story today was the increase in bank reserves at the ECB. They're scared PERIOD.; June 3, 2010 at 12:36 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man @ 12:08

So you really did quit?

Going out on your own?; June 3, 2010 at 12:36 PM
karen said...: No, I'm here.. see gold? and copper down over 4%.. then there is crude which has really been a tell for me...; June 3, 2010 at 12:38 PM
karen said...: oh, DL! how you light up my life!; June 3, 2010 at 12:39 PM
AmenRa said...: Karen

FXE even lower now.; June 3, 2010 at 12:40 PM
I-Man said...: @ DL

Yes.

Not on my own tho, going prop, daytrading ES.; June 3, 2010 at 12:41 PM
karen said...: if we could close right here.. QLD candle might be indicating an ominous turn.. this day has hours to run, however.; June 3, 2010 at 12:41 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man @ 12:41

Cool.

You must be confident, if nothing else.; June 3, 2010 at 12:41 PM
I-Man said...: You know, I've been mulling over this decision since November, and its been terrifying, actually.

But the moment I made up my mind and put my notice in, the fear just kind of dissipated, and gave way to a massive feeling of relief.

Its not going to be easy, thats for sure. Any of you who have traded awhile know that it takes time and work.

I'm going into this new gig so humbled, I'm bringing zero ego to the table.

I want to be coached. I want to be destroyed, and rebuilt into a better trader... thats the whole point really.

I've done a good job at the destruction part on my own, now its time to rebuild.; June 3, 2010 at 12:47 PM
karen said...: Please remember as the news comes in that the situation in Europe is contained and has no bearing on the United States, its economy or its currency. Nor does China, India, Brazil or other EMs..; June 3, 2010 at 12:48 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man,

We'll be happy to help you with the destruction part, if you like.; June 3, 2010 at 12:48 PM
I-Man said...: 83 is going to be quite the showdown on audusd, huh Bob?; June 3, 2010 at 12:49 PM
bob said...: Iman, look at the 4h on the AUDUSD.

Bounced off of the 50 ma(also about the 38 fib), trying to get back through the 20ma.; June 3, 2010 at 12:50 PM
bob said...: Thinking the same thing, watching the ticks....The spreads are usually about 3 pips, now 1/2.; June 3, 2010 at 12:50 PM
I-Man said...: DL,

Its been well documented... I actually went back and looked at some old emails from 2007-08, and reviewed some of my old posts at TBP...

Its amazing I still have the drive to do this.; June 3, 2010 at 12:51 PM
karen said...: Forgot to mention Canada, no bubbles there either. So these countries only affect us in growth mode.. not slow-down or burst mode.; June 3, 2010 at 12:51 PM
I-Man said...: The 4hr is where I got that... lol.; June 3, 2010 at 12:51 PM
AmenRa said...: Dow will close below 10k today.; June 3, 2010 at 12:52 PM
arbitrage789 said...: AmenRa @ 12:52

Glad to see you're going out on the limb.; June 3, 2010 at 12:56 PM
AmenRa said...: re: NFP

With Initial Claims averaging 450k that's 1.8m jobs lost in a month. So even if NFP is +700k net jobs for the month will be -1.1m. Explain that Obama!; June 3, 2010 at 12:59 PM
I-Man said...: Strong words from the Ra...

Should be heeded.; June 3, 2010 at 12:59 PM
arbitrage789 said...: AmenRa

Obama's got some very capable "spin-meisters" working for him.; June 3, 2010 at 1:00 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Karen,

I think people are underestimately, probably severely, the effect the oil spill will have on the economy. I live in the south, and people of all social and economic strata vacation and play on the gulf coast. For most of us who work, it is an exceptional short vacation. You know, Thurs, Fri, weekend, back on Monday. I just think this has been, for once in this time period of insults, underappreciated for what it may well bring.; June 3, 2010 at 1:01 PM
AmenRa said...: DL

Trying to beat them to the punch.; June 3, 2010 at 1:05 PM
arbitrage789 said...: B in T @1:01

The effect on the local economy of the Gulf coast will be massive. But I think the effect on U.S. GDP will be minimal.
Much of the business that would have occurred on the Gulf coast will occur elsewhere. For example, fishermen in the northeast are probably thrilled about the oil spill.; June 3, 2010 at 1:05 PM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

I think traders realize the NFP will not be up to snuff. Sell in May and go away should have been heeded.; June 3, 2010 at 1:06 PM
karen said...: Bruce, very true, very sad, in very many ways.. i've been struck by the effect on the price of crude oil and the effect on the environment, of course.. but hadn't thot deeply enuf about your point.. thanks.; June 3, 2010 at 1:07 PM
I-Man said...: DL,

I guarantee you that no fisherman anywhere, is thrilled about that spill... and if they are, one glimpse of the rotting corpses of dolphins and tortoises caked in oil will change that view rather quickly.; June 3, 2010 at 1:07 PM
I-Man said...: It is a sin upon Jah creation.; June 3, 2010 at 1:08 PM
karen said...: You gotta luv CR:

"This is probably a safe prediction: There will be some really bad reporting tomorrow. "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/employment-report-prediction-bad.html; June 3, 2010 at 1:10 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man @ 1:07

If I were a shrimper on the Chesapeake Bay, I’d be thrilled about the oil spill. Good for business (if you’re on the Chesapeake); June 3, 2010 at 1:10 PM
bob said...: CHF-

2pm is important. They will do it at, just before, or after the europe close.

I posted this before, but its pretty relevant again today.

http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2010/05/swiss-did-it.html; June 3, 2010 at 1:11 PM
BinT said...: DL:

No. I don't agree that the rest of the US takes up this slack. The slack is already in the e.g. inland California, Las Vegas, housing overhang, defaulting and defaulted mortgages, new jobs with fewer benefits and lower wages, and etc and etc. What I am suggesting is that the gulf coast feeds the entire south, and that what is lost will not have the snap-back resolution that the entire US might have in saner times. Think about it for a minute. There will be massive unemployment, for much of what is done on the coast is ruined with oil. Price of lots or homes....? You get the picture.

I guess we'll see which is closer to the over/under....; June 3, 2010 at 1:12 PM
arbitrage789 said...: B in T,

Interesting.

We'll see.; June 3, 2010 at 1:14 PM
bob said...: BinT-

There is also the fact that they are running the water out of the Mississippi to "push" the spill further out to sea. This will effect farmers way up stream eventually, especially if we get any sort of a dry summer.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html; June 3, 2010 at 1:15 PM
arbitrage789 said...: If that oil spill manages to come up the East Coast, it'll be inconvenient, to say the least.; June 3, 2010 at 1:17 PM
BinT said...: This is not a hurricane...it is a simultaneous hurricane over the entire coastline...more the true picture of its effect. Those whose business drops off will affect those still employed in their same areas, and for about 100 miles northward of the coast.

If you can't put buts in the seats, you won't make many movies..........; June 3, 2010 at 1:19 PM
typing guru said...: butts, I think he said...; June 3, 2010 at 1:19 PM
McFearless said...: "I think the key story today was the increase in bank reserves at the ECB"

Basic point I was getting at yesterday, expansion of credit requires two parties, willing borrowers are just 1/2 of whats needed and therefore with a giant jump in non-performings.....; June 3, 2010 at 1:31 PM
spoonman said...: good read at Planet Yelnick today; June 3, 2010 at 1:34 PM
I-Man said...: Everyone's presence is requested poolside at the diving board...

Now.; June 3, 2010 at 1:37 PM
trading diary said...: McFearless,
I agree with your in debt based monetary system money is debt. However, we have to be clear debt to who? For each debtor their is a creditor, right? So, I think it would be more interesting to analysis who holds what kind of credit/debt to whom. In the case ECB expanding its balancesheet, it could have loaned more EUROs, in 1-90 days term, to commercial banks. Or they could have done outright buying sovereign debt similar to Fed buying MBS off market. In this case, ECB made loans with infinite-long maturity in exchange for the sovereign debt. It is true the total debt did not shrink, but at least temporary, the configuration of debtor/creditors changed dramastically. As an extreme example, you can image what the world be like if Fed sends everyone in US a check of 1T dollar overnight. My understanding is that debt itself does not pose any problem, the real crux is the distribution of debt. Am I making sense here?; June 3, 2010 at 1:44 PM
karen said...: the spx on a 5 min chart over the last 3 days is absolutely fascinating.. we just had a gap up a few min ago.. and the turn candles are very obvious..; June 3, 2010 at 1:48 PM
arbitrage789 said...: "As an extreme example, you can image what the world would be like if Fed sends everyone in US a check of 1T dollar overnight"

That's why I think that deflation can be prevented, if the Fed wants to. The deflationist advocates, however, don't see it that way.; June 3, 2010 at 1:51 PM
karen said...: and the darn compq just does not want to go down! an aapl a day for everyone.. and goog over $500.. and AMZN trading like retail is on fire..; June 3, 2010 at 1:51 PM
I-Man said...: I like a board with good spring like this one...; June 3, 2010 at 1:53 PM
karen said...: gap filled on the 5 min spx.. i need popcorn!; June 3, 2010 at 1:53 PM
Mannwich said...: @DL: But what makes you think the Fed will ever do what it truly takes to get hyperinflation or even inflation?; June 3, 2010 at 1:53 PM
karen said...: i-man, you are hilarious! filling in for CV.. where is he?!; June 3, 2010 at 1:54 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Mannwich,

It's not that I think the Fed WANTS hyperinflation. But I think that they would see a modest inflation rate as being a lesser evil than deflation. And they have the power to bring that about, I believe.

One of the problems for the Fed, of course, is that there is such a lag between monetary policy and the end result.. So it's difficult to calibrate it exactly.; June 3, 2010 at 1:56 PM
I-Man said...: DL I can feel McFearless steaming from here on that last remark...; June 3, 2010 at 1:58 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man @ 1:58

Yeah, I'm going to catch hell for it.; June 3, 2010 at 2:00 PM
Mannwich said...: I agree, DL, but that's where we (and others) disagree. I think you give the Fed more credit in being able to control more than they can control. They won't just get inflation if they truly do what it takes to get it (e.g. literally printing and giving away free money in buckets to regular people) - they'll likely get the latter - hyperinflation, which probably comes after deflation and an overreaction to it by the Fed.; June 3, 2010 at 2:01 PM
Mannwich said...: When I say I agree (with DL) - I agree that the Fed would rather have some inflation over deflation. That's obvious but we disagree over their ability to get what they want in the end.; June 3, 2010 at 2:02 PM
AmenRa said...: It's actually funny that Obama is making another trip to the Gulf without stating where he'll be. BP is calling in favors to find out.; June 3, 2010 at 2:06 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Mannwich,

I haven't seen a whole lot of deflation in the CRB index over the last year. Nor do I expect the CRB index to be lower in June 2011 than it is now.; June 3, 2010 at 2:08 PM
I-Man said...: Would be nice to see one of those 1pt gaps on the 1min chart right about now...; June 3, 2010 at 2:09 PM
AmenRa said...: SPX moved 20 handles higher yesterday at 2:35. Time for a reverse move?; June 3, 2010 at 2:09 PM
I-Man said...: Bastards!; June 3, 2010 at 2:12 PM
karen said...: crude oil is manic.. so is the spx..; June 3, 2010 at 2:19 PM
bob said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1odvp-_bhk; June 3, 2010 at 2:20 PM
CV said...: Anybody have a Mr. Topstep link today?; June 3, 2010 at 2:22 PM
I-Man said...: Such a bunch of bullshit.; June 3, 2010 at 2:22 PM
bob said...: I've been looking for Mr. Topstep for the past hour. Nothing yet; June 3, 2010 at 2:23 PM
bob said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivt6Av4FTP8

Just up.; June 3, 2010 at 2:27 PM
CV said...: Mr. Topstep

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1VHibBtWzs; June 3, 2010 at 2:27 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I'm really starting to think that we're not going to see the 1050 level again for at least a few months.; June 3, 2010 at 2:28 PM
CV said...: Danny

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivt6Av4FTP8; June 3, 2010 at 2:29 PM
karen said...: we just had a 4.1 but i didn't feel it.. about 90 miles away..; June 3, 2010 at 2:31 PM
I-Man said...: I may be tinfoiling a bit here, but my initial reaction is to call that bullshit, because it looks to me like someone with a shit ton of capital at their disposal, cant read the tape for shit, and when they see it getting broken down, they are late to the party, and use their weight to go in and dislocate the price movement, so they can get their sell orders in before anyone else.; June 3, 2010 at 2:32 PM
karen said...: thank you, DL, i feel better now, my darling contrary indicator, smiling.; June 3, 2010 at 2:32 PM
I-Man said...: It is what it is, but it still pisses me the fuck off.

Just let the market fucking trade the way it wants to and stop dicking with it...

FOR ONCE.; June 3, 2010 at 2:33 PM
arbitrage789 said...: "my darling contrary indicator".

That's the nicest thing anyone has said to me in some time.; June 3, 2010 at 2:34 PM
CV said...: Top Notch Trading has 1090.80 as a key pivot at this point...; June 3, 2010 at 2:36 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Thankfully, I "covered my shorts" from yesterday with a small gain.; June 3, 2010 at 2:38 PM
karen said...: another gap up on the 5 min spx.. crude going to 75.. pretty neat the way they are welded at the hip.. so spx to 1150 and crude to 150..; June 3, 2010 at 2:39 PM
CV said...: @DL

Equities are running into a stack of completed 1's and 2's...

1050 will be sliced thru like a hot knife thru butter when the largest in the stack turns to a 3...; June 3, 2010 at 2:39 PM
karen said...: $bkx not joining this party..; June 3, 2010 at 2:42 PM
AmenRa said...: Up volume/down volume is less than 2. Trin still holding above 1. BKX and XLF down but JNK,HYG and LQD are up. Net $ VOL is positive. I see EURUSD got down to 1.2153 then intervention occurred. Arrggh.; June 3, 2010 at 2:45 PM
I-Man said...: These fuckers are JV and they know it...

Bunch of cornered rats.; June 3, 2010 at 2:48 PM
McFearless said...: POS, just typed a huge response and blogger error, I'm not retyping it, maybe it will show up later.; June 3, 2010 at 2:51 PM
AmenRa said...: Ben

Sometimes when doing long posts make sure you copy it. If you don't then "the blogger knows" :-); June 3, 2010 at 2:55 PM
McFearless said...: How, pray tell, does "dropping money from helicopters" prevent deflation?
I think it's a fair statement to say they'd never do this until AFTER deflation had already taken hold, at which point, it doesn't matter, the market will runs its course at that point.

Unless of course we want to believe that despite the Fed not being able to see the biggest bubble ever, they'll get out in front of this one.

sure they will.....; June 3, 2010 at 2:56 PM
I-Man said...: Sorry for the rant.

I guess the difference lies in trading the tape that you see, instead of painting the tape you want to see.

Its just sad that most of the capital rests in the hands of the painters and not the traders.; June 3, 2010 at 2:57 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Yeah, make a copy when doing a long post.; June 3, 2010 at 2:57 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man,

Yeah, what's-his-name on "Fast Money" says that a lot... trade the market you have, not the one you want.; June 3, 2010 at 2:59 PM
McFearless said...: The gist of my post was that it's not actually true that "new" creditors always occur, nor does it matter, that nobody owns debt to themself, and that only in a Keynesian dreamland to the "level of debts not matter"

I'm pissed, it took me forever to type that post up.; June 3, 2010 at 2:59 PM
bob said...: The next "stimulus"

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/03/251236/unusual-economic-indicators-brazilian-plastic-surgery-edition/; June 3, 2010 at 2:59 PM
I-Man said...: DL,

I strive to put that into practice day in and day out. I hope you all know that.

My observations tell me that there are some big players in the markets that disregard that entirely.

For them, controlling the outcome is the goal.

Thus, their skills are not in "reading the tape" their skills are in reacting to it, and doing what they can to shape it to fit their aims.

Deep down I know that their efforts are ridiculous, and that they are just a part of the larger picture, but when you spend alot of time tape reading and get a feel for the market, and then you see some obvious bullshit, it tends to piss you off.

Who knows, maybe its because I wish I could make the tape do what I want it to as well. (But knowing myself, I doubt that.)

I'm sure the fact that I watch this everyday in the 1min timeframe has something to do with how worked up I get over it... that and the caffeine.; June 3, 2010 at 3:05 PM
arbitrage789 said...: "only in a Keynesian dreamland [do] the level of debts not matter".

I agree with that.

(Although, I'm not sure that Keynes was a big advocate of maintaining a big debt load over the long term).; June 3, 2010 at 3:07 PM
I-Man said...: These arent real "Keynesians" we're dealing with...

They only want the spending part, not the saving part.; June 3, 2010 at 3:09 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man @ 3:05

I assume you've read “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”.; June 3, 2010 at 3:10 PM
I-Man said...: A few times, yes.; June 3, 2010 at 3:12 PM
I-Man said...: What would Jesse do?; June 3, 2010 at 3:12 PM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

I can watch the 1 min candles for the 1st hour. I switch to 5 min candles after that. Mainly because you see twilight zone moves in the smaller time frame.; June 3, 2010 at 3:15 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man @ 3:12

Hopefully, not blow his brains out.; June 3, 2010 at 3:15 PM
AmenRa said...: I think I'll write a new book "30 Handles in 30 Minutes" :-); June 3, 2010 at 3:16 PM
I-Man said...: I'm too much of a crackhead Ra... 5min just isnt fast enough for me anymore...

:)

They said one hit wouldnt get me hooked!!!; June 3, 2010 at 3:16 PM
72bat said...: @ ben
do you have an app like stickie notes or even wordpad you could leave open on your desktop? compose your comments here but copy-and-paste to the desktop app before hitting "post comment"?; June 3, 2010 at 3:18 PM
McFearless said...: I think most (maybe all) of you would agree that the Fed's supposed control of borrowing, of interest rates, and of lending, ultimately depends upon the proper market psychology, they can't just do whatever they want.

if you agree with that, you have to conclude then the Fed doesnt' control interest rates nor do they control the total supply of credit, that's the markets job.; June 3, 2010 at 3:20 PM
McFearless said...: @72,

yes, this won't happen again....; June 3, 2010 at 3:20 PM
arbitrage789 said...: AmenRa @ 3:16

Catchy title.

These days, it's pretty easy to publish a book yourself, without approval from anyone else.; June 3, 2010 at 3:23 PM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

Your painters have returned.; June 3, 2010 at 3:29 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Brave souls can go ahead and short at the 1105 level (although I'd like to get some sleep tonight, so I'm not going to do it).; June 3, 2010 at 3:30 PM
karen said...: you all know i will be disgusted with a melt up.. and will sulk at the beach the rest of the afternoon..; June 3, 2010 at 3:30 PM
I-Man said...: I'll be sulking with you in spirit.

I think I'm done for the day, may as well savor this last bit of mundane clerical work while I have the chance...; June 3, 2010 at 3:32 PM
karen said...: oh, i-man.. no way you will take your eyes off this tape! laughing..; June 3, 2010 at 3:33 PM
karen said...: DL, i feel that you are contradicting yourself.. why would anyone short if they were of your mind in the short term?; June 3, 2010 at 3:34 PM
I-Man said...: Busted.; June 3, 2010 at 3:35 PM
I-Man said...: You're right... I tried to log off, but couldnt.; June 3, 2010 at 3:36 PM
I-Man said...: I had to check SPY volume, and when I did, I saw all I needed to see.; June 3, 2010 at 3:37 PM
I-Man said...: Will someone please tell Wanger to turn on the tractor beam?; June 3, 2010 at 3:40 PM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

Looks like they're selling euros and using the money to prop up the market.; June 3, 2010 at 3:43 PM
karen said...: zerohedge - HFTs now doing the low volume churn pretty exclusively on the NASDAQ; June 3, 2010 at 3:44 PM
BinT said...: Congrats I-Man. You won't regret it.; June 3, 2010 at 3:44 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 3:34

I do think we'll get to 1150 by the end of June. I just think it's possible we could get a drop within the next 24 hours.; June 3, 2010 at 3:44 PM
BinT said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Meat-Grinder-Market-Could-cnbc-1761230461.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

Meat Grinder Market Could Last 8 Years: Rosenberg; June 3, 2010 at 3:48 PM
Cramer said...: BinT

There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to find it just for you.; June 3, 2010 at 3:52 PM
I-Man said...: Thx Bruce!; June 3, 2010 at 3:53 PM
AmenRa said...: Damn. Dow 10k avoided yet again. The downward momentum was there but the painters returned to add a second coat.; June 3, 2010 at 4:01 PM

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