A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
SPXBullish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still kryptonite. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Back above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Currently not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day (again). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Decisiones, decisiones. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing the market is a game. Tested the 23.6% retrace (failed) but stayed above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDHanging man day (I'd say dragonfly doji but body is 22% of h-l range). Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1176.10).
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed up for the day but lower than yesterday. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Never tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336. Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.
JNKBullish short day (confirmed inverted hammer). Tested the 14.6% retrace (failed) and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
WTIBullish piercing day. Closed above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Tested and closed above 38.2% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 68.01).
HYG/LQDDoji day (again). Tested the 50% retrace (passed). Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.806).
71 comments:
Thanks Ra.
perusing the previous thread-
awesome posts all the way around-
wunsacon- it doesn't have to be Arlington- but you better step up and make it an even more impressive venue-
such as Normandy-
c'mon man- you're a smart dude- Obama dropped the ball- and Obama is a smart dude- but obviously listening to bad advice or possibly- even worse- following his own heart
Re Ben@5:54 from previous post.
I agree with you that Fed is not in control, ultimately, either interest rate or total supply(size) of debt. Make no mistake, I am not assuming/expecting that Fed will be able to inflate the over-debt away in a controllable way. However, I do expect that, economy will sluggish in Japanese way and Fed will step in (QE), repeatly with diminished effects over time, when things look really bad. As you pointed out it is imaginable that Feb will not step in big until at least blood has already on the street as in the case of last Feb/March. Now, Feb are even more politically constrained, I believe, after more and more tea party movements. As for "do not fight Fed", I definetly learned the lesson, at least, I will not fight against 1.75T newly minted cash. Let's put 1.75T in context: The total US stock market cap is around 45T at its 2007 hight as I remember. It took more than a century to get there. So, my current hypothesis is market will be range bound, probably downwards trended in longer (7 years) term, with rallies induced either from deeply oversold condition by value investors or by fresh cash from QE experiments. I want to emphasize that QE here meaning outright buying any kind of assets: treasury, MBS, etc.
I just re-read BB's (in)famous speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm
It makes me belive he will get madder before this entire episode ends.
td-
and you mean madder as in more crazy right?
td,
I think there is one point though we just don't know for sure, I really don't think the Fed was buying the bad loans with cash, they swapped bad debt for new debt, the 1.75T wasn't new notes....it was all credit. If you have proof it was I'd love to see it though. In any event, doesn't mean they won't use cash in the future, I'm just not sure that's what they've done up to this point.
anyway, this topic is exhausting.....what are you trading?
Re: call me ahab@7:45
Yes, I mean he can get even more crazy. If you read between the lines where he argues/proposes how to fight deflation, a sense of "fighting of Tyson kind" is quite obvious. All his proposal/ideas are founded on "we can print and buy all kind of assets to reflate"---legal or not. So far, he has followed the script pretty closely and in some part (buying MBS) has already surpassed what prescribed there.
To clarify, I do not expect hyperinflation as I expect he will be more politically constrainted going forward. But, I have to respect his possible madness and creativeness of getting crazier.
td,
ok, I'll give you that on the "dont fight the fed" but my take is that people that kept shorting were fighting the waves of social mood, not the fed, optimism was back baby, negative was so 2008. I'm a waver through and through for better or worse, outside events are not trend changers for us, they are results of social mood.
If we get true credit deflation, we'll see if the Fed can hang on to the "potent director" image that so many hold on to as fact. I'm doubtful.
welcome to the blog btw, never saw you post here before.
To clarify, I do not expect hyperinflation
td-
hyperinflation not impossible- the money supply is shrinking-
deflation is the heavyweight and BB is a bantamweight- poking and jabbing with little effect
and as I have opined- regarding a double dip for housing- CNBC's got my back-
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37469420
If deflation is the heavyweight then BB is Glass Joe from the Mike Tyson's Punch Out on NES.
007 373 5963
McFearless,
As I understand, Fed reserve has expanded its balance sheet dramastically, which means cash has been created (out of thin air) on the liability side which balanced out the asset side with all the MBS stuff. Keep in mind, cash is "Federal Reserve Note", by definition liability with zero maturity for Fed. See http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/fed-balance-sheet-and-mbs-purchases.html
I believe there is huge difference between zero-maturity cash and 30 year maturity MBS, which is illiquid.
What am I trading? I am totally a novice in trading with technical: Short with SDS and TZA based on hypothesizes
1. SMA200 (S&P 1005) line being resistance
2. No new money pumped into system, no sustained buying power
3. Debt market is not responding/bullish
4. Good "fake" job number has been widely expected and hence baked in via for example calculated risk, yesterday's Yahoo headline, and today's President's speed
Your critique?
Not a fan of Charlie Gasparino but he gets this one right, IMO.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gasparino-deconstructs-buffetts-hypocrisy
So let's see if NFP can do better than 10k net jobs for April. Estab Survey 290k - 188k (B/D) - 26k (temp wrkrs) - 66k (census)= 10k.
You know the administration has to hate the fact that people are putting out the numbers after taking out the excess before they can get on tv with the lie.
Inital claims 4 wk avg 450k
Cont claims 4.6m
Ext Benefits 278k
Fed Ext Benefits (EU) 5.1m
So how can they continue to preach job growth when the weekly numbers are so bad? Also mass layoffs are picking up again. I'm just so tired of the BS.
I am new to technical. For social mood, I am skeptical because it is hard to quantify/gauge as I am an engineer trained with numbers. At least, I don't know how to used it to trade. But overall, I believe, pessimism, distrusting, social unrest lead to low valuation on assets. From historical perspective, I tend to believe we are in a secular bear market. Currently, I am taking other technical analysis as self-fulfilling prophecy. Still, it is good to trade on technical since game theory tells us that fighting majority is not a winning strategy.
I followed your guys from big picture and a long time lurk here and there, but posted very little.
I'm with you Amen, which is one reason why I haven't been commenting as much lately and only periodically lurking. Just SO sick of it all.
@McF/ahab/TD
Great discussion (going back to the last thread)... I apologize for coming in late on this (but I was at the gym)...
Not to extend the argument (because I think both of you covered the relevant aspects)... But here are CV's 2c... (the only way I know how to do this will be to bullet point a few thoughts - which inevitably leads to open ended conclusions)... Nevertheless:
- The difference NOW (from 2007) is that we KNOW what road central bankers are going to attempt... What wasn't clear before, IS CLEAR now (or, until some kind of "about face" is done on that concept)...
- Not that that attempt will be SUCCESSFUL, just that it's one less UNCERTAINTY to deal with... Like Gene Krantz in Apollo 13... "Let's look at this from a MISSION standpoint, what do we have on the ship that actually works?"... Nobody can build any hypothetical outcome on things that aren't mathematically in the equation... If the FEDS policy is to reflate, then regardless of whether it's a good idea or not, one has to calculate outcomes based on that idea...
- Cv likes to also try to understand WHY... The "why" to me is very simple... SAVE THE BANKING INTERESTS AT ALL COSTS... Nothing else matters... Humanity are a bunch of slugs... There is ZERO INTEREST in humanity at large... Just keep the "monied interests" in place and in tact... No decision will ever be made to interrupt that outcome...
- All your trading decisions (and personal life support decisions should be made with reverence and deference to what was stated previously)... IOW - at EVERY juncture, understand the larger currents involved... That's what you don't want to swim against...
Those are the fundamental SECULAR & CYCLICAL elements...
Another engineer. Yea!
....Just be careful. CV will have you stocking up on 65 gallon barrels of rainwater if you aren't careful....but sometimes I think he might be me...so watch it.
And be very careful in dealing with Leftback. Sometimes he forgets to take his medicine before he posts.
td,
you are interchanging cash and credit, no cash was created out of thin air at all by the Fed, this is false, and a crucial point if we are going to attempt to understand the value of equities in credit and now money supply deflation. And, I won't get started on what we are calling "assets" on the Fed's balance sheet. I think maybe we subscribe to some difference assumptions about what has happened, how the fed works, etc, (I'd rather not rehash all this out to keep this a trading site, all my old posts on this crap are over at TBP) but no matter on all of that, we'll just find out in time.
I never traded the TZA, I know McHappy has been lately as mentioned here. SDS isn't a bad idea, I think Andy T's warning though is valid in the very near term that we could have a pretty large move up here. Good luck to you, I think the market favors the bears for quite some time now so sounds like you are on the right track. Plenty of good ideas (and diverse) from people here lately that's for sure.
"I am skeptical because it is hard to quantify/gauge as I am an engineer trained with numbers."
Tons of systems out there to quantify this, countless sentiment services, COT reports, Lowry's, or you could simply look at a/d ratio's, volume, etc.
@Manny (8:50)
I'm with YOU bro...
I have a tough time (every once in a while) even putting up a thread...
It's hard for CV because there's a NEED to be PROVOCATIVE...
In this day and age, to be "provocative" oftentimes makes one come out as NEGATIVE... (it's necessary to CRITICIZE INCESSANTLY)...
If you do too much of that, then you become a negative person (and people start dismissing your personna)...
When that happens, "authorship" requires a new tact...
CV would be HAPPY to just talk NBA Finals & World Cup for the next month and be done with it...
But no... My promise is that I'm going to lace up my shoes every day AND PLAY...
But I'm the CAL RIPKEN type... I may go 0-4 on some days, but I come to the ballpark TO PLAY DAMMIT!
Ben,
By the way, got a little busy in the mine this afternoon. I agree with you Buffett comments.
Bruce
Get ready Ben!
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100602&sportCat=nba
I think that Buffett, now that he's gotten older, has lost some of his ability to hide his predatory nature. Frankly as one of the world's richest men, it has served him well, it just doesn't make him sweet old lovey dovey Warren...
That link above was for you too, cv, and anyone else who wants to lighten things up a bit and go "off topic" once in a while so that we all don't go insane by being too serious all the time about things that are clearly beyond our control.
And after all, it IS summer again in the hinterlands!
comment on this comment please- from TBP- courtesy of the "boatman"-
papered over trumped up BS recovery…..109 months of housing inventory-our only large manufacturing business left(until they figure out how to stick em’ in containers)…HELLO?….back to 6500 in 2 years……at times a traders market til then…..
we are england in1900-don’t you get it?
@Manny
You betcha! (summertime)
Actually... I had a FANTASTIC Memorial Day weekend...
I'm looking forward to another nice weekend coming up... CV loves the summertime... Strange as it sounds, I lived in Los Angeles for 13 years... Perfect weather mostly... But in the end, I "missed" the seasons... I missed the "appreciation" of cyclicality in weather (and what it means to the soul)...
my 9:10-
I meant to italicize the comment- but-
in any event- I like it- it says a lot
@cv: It's funny you mention that. Everyone here knows how much I don't like Minny winters but I have to say, the changing of the seasons really does make one appreciate good weather! I just LOVE spring, summer and early fall. It really brightens my mood. There's definitely a rythm to the different seasons that does something for the soul, at least for me. I'm not sure it would have the same effect if I lived in a place like LA where the weather is good to great most of the time and where other negative things about the place would piss me off even worse than bad weather does here. I totally agree with your point there.
For Fed model, I think it as a bank of all commercial banks. Those assets on its balance sheet will do ok at least short term since those MBS are all ganranteed by F/F, who are fully backstoped by treasuary now. Money/debt supply as defined as M3 is shrinking while M2 seem to stall recently : see http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts
For trading, I am aware one of Andy's hypothesis to shoot up further, right shoulder, to 1140-1150 region. Hence, I set a tight stop over the 1105 level so that if I am wrong it won't be catastrophic like last year. But I do remember Andy himself still holds a small MAX short position based on his view that we are on down trend mid-term( several monthes) towards 878.04 support level, no?
I am all ears and here to learn...
@BinTN
I know you know what I'm talking about...
Actually - I really have a mild ENVY for Tennessee weather...
CV has been on EVERY continent (save Antarctica)... I've been on most longitudinal/latitudinal x/y matrix configurations on most every continent...
And NOT on a cruise ship, or tour group...
Instead? Invited by locals to come in and DO SOMETHING (which gave me the opportunity to know them - which most "hosts" are more than eager to put on display)...
The collective experience... WITHOUT QUESTION... Makes one keen to consider... If push came to shove, where, assuming ALL potentialities, would be a HEARTY place to inhabit?...
Tennessee was ALWAYS high on that list...
BinT @8:53
thanks for your "warning"...
Nice read: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gtlong/2010/0602.html
Confirming the Flash Crash Omen
CATALYST
It is readily apparent that present day markets have built across-market dynamic hedging machinery with a hair trigger. This trigger is designed to launch unimaginable trading volumes in less than 250 microseconds, across global exchanges, operating under different & still uncoordinated rules. The activation could be any number of events but my sense is it will stem from the dramatic contraction in money supply. Despite massive central bank actions, money supply as measured by MZM, M1, M2 is still de-accelerating and in the case of the difficult to obtain M3, is contracting. All of which is presently going unheralded by the mainline media. When a highly leveraged system is built on the basis of liquidity and liquidity is shrinking, it is only a matter of time.
Re: "Tons of systems out there to quantify this, countless sentiment services, COT reports, Lowry's, or you could simply look at a/d ratio's, volume, etc."
If you confine social mood to those numbers, I am with you and tracking them.
Comprehensive wrap, AR, thank you! you touched everything except $copper and $xad!! teasing! and, great thread above.. our favorite debate, inflation/deflation : )
@Manny
It says it all in your most recent AVATAR...
A spring day, on the THIRD BASE SIDE of an 'ol ballgame... (nice new stadium to boot :-)...
CV likes it when either the US Open (or PGA Championship) comes round your way (to Hazeltine National)...
There is, WITHOUT A DOUBT, an appreciation for the outdoor sports culture of your area...
Your neighbors in Wisconsin have a similar pride... The PGA Championship this year will be at "Whistling Straits"... (an absolutely MAGNIFICENT location on Lake Michigan)...
Manny,
bill simmons is the man, that article got me pretty pumped. I do think it is going to be a great series. I would love to see Kobe and Rondo each go off in different games, and 7 games would be great.
@karen
Ever the perfectionist you :-)...
The first thing CV thot when he came back from the gym?... GREAT! karen will be happy that the God Amen Ra put up the WTI chart...
We men do ALL WE CAN to keep you ladies satisfied!
Throw us a bone every once in awhile! :-)
@McF
Bill Simmons IS the man...
CV has a "journalistic" Man Crush...
Karen @ 9:42
Ahem.
@karen (9:42)
Best comment... EVER...
If LB is still on the train... My prediction is that it just DERAILED! :-)
DL,
Did you cover you ESM0 short? Would mind educating me why you choose to fade today's surge?
Thanks!
whoaa, it just got NC17 up in here, lol.
@td,
above, right on AT's H&S but also has retracement levels up to the 1180's as well. And I do think he said he still has shorts, I do as well, I guess you might call them "core" shorts,.... for me anyway.
"A bone works for me, too!"
of course-
it works for all women- except for maybe Janet Napolitano and Elena Kagan
@McF (9:51)
CV's thread tomorrow is already destined to be TECHNICAL in nature...
Not that my POV is any more valid than that of anyone else...
It's just that... To CV?... It's getting awfully TECHNICAL as of late (the only explanation, in my mind)...
I'll give you all my 2 cents on the subject...
DAMN... I HATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS... It takes CV twice as long to "annotate" charts as it does to EMBED music videos... :-(
Now, ahab, you have to delete your 9:51 and the mystery will intens..ify..
CV, you have got to get that Kinny and Horne recording, Forgetting to Remember..
altho this might be a bit frightening:
http://www.myspace.com/kinnyandhorne
trading diary @ 9:49
I’m hoping for some weakness overnight/early morning. May or may not get it.
DL@10:03
thanks for letting me know your thought.
alright-
gotta wrap it up- still nursing a cold-
karen- it's all in good fun- I leave my posts for posterity-
the good and the bad-
check you all out in the AM
DL, you an me both.. the jobs number is a cr*p shoot.. not the number itself which is bound to a BIG BTE, but the reaction..
Re:"above, right on AT's H&S but also has retracement levels up to the 1180's as well. "
thanks---I will keep 1180 in my mind as well!
Ahab, that is no fun! teasing is fun..not that i don't ever follow thru..
Karen,
Have you heard Florence and the Machine yet? Might be worth checking out if not.
@karen
If you want to know the TRUTH?
Lately... My classes have been going "batsh**" (no offense 72bat) for Christina Aguilera...
NOT MYSELF TONIGHT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-ZFqfDOeKg
They're going effin crazy!
@mcfear:
Yes, they are "core shorts" at this point. There's an old saying: "your position should reflect your view."
I'm bearish longer term but pretty convinced we're a little 'washed out' shorter term...thus only a 20% short. I have to keep some on in case I'm wrong and Prechter/EWI has it "nailed."
Ha.
Best. AT
@cv: There's most definitely an appreciation for outdoor sports and activities both here and in WI. Never thought I'd live here (the thought literally never entered my mind until late' 04 when it came out of the blue), but now it's hard to envision leaving any time soon. Just a good, solid place to live. There are good places to visit and good places to live. For example: NYC is a great place visit but Minny's a great place to live. It's definitely crucial to figure out that distinction when choosing a place to live (vs. visit).
Minneapolis was recently rated the best biking big city in the country, I believe. MN also has the most (or one of the most) golf courses per capita, I think.
I guess I missed a classic karen post before she removed it? Why remove it, karen? Couldn't have been THAT bad?
It may be THE SONG of 2010...
CV, her voice is spectacular, but i can't get into that at all.. not for spin or anything that i can imagine..
I don't like how x-tina is always doing tons of RUNS...that gets a little old, she can really sing though.
There's an old saying: "your position should reflect your view."
+1
I see her new album has the Parental Advisory. Fitting I suppose, she came out with Dirrty in 2002.
@karen
I learned a long time ago (because I basically PERFORM every day - day in & day out)...
Lyrics MATTER... It's the "message" that someone is trying to convey...
There's something UNIDENTIFIABLE about it (if it's the RIGHT message - or, if it NEEDS to be heard - if only to provide contrast)...
I can only OFFER IT UP... I can't predict the outcome...
In a minute... I'll "entertain" you with another musical selection... (THESE AREN'T MY FAVORITE SONGS - THEY'RE JUST THE SONGS THAT MASSES OF PEOPLE ARE ASSIGNING THEMSELVES TO IN A GROUP EXPERIENCE IN MY CLASSES)...
No "opinions" here... Just "observations"...
@karen
I get to do this every day (for more than 25 years now)...
It's one of the PLEASURES in my life :-)... to observe this phenomenon...
@karen
Here you go...
The #2 song that my people are "tying into" at the moment is by Kaylah Marin...
Kind of cheesy video... But her voice is incredible... She has a GOSPEL background (and is a BIG Obama supporter... WTF cares?)...
She has talent... Real talent needs to live & CV recognizes that...
THE PEOPLE don't lie... They love this song in my classes...
It's moving UP the Brazil Dance Charts at the moment...
Hey who deleted the post? I missed out on something juicy? That's what I get for trying to create a trin using dollar volume in adv/decl issues.
NEW POST UP!
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