A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
SPXBearish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is kryptonite. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Back below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back below the trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Currently confirming monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Tested the 85.4% retrace (failed). No daily 3LB changes.
VIXTakuri day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing it's not a dream. Think BP. Tested the 23.6% retrace (passed) and rose above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBullish short day. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). Daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1176.10.
EURUSDSpinning top day (had support from somewhere). Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.
JNKInverted hammer day (which confirmed hanging man). Back below gap support. Back below the 14.6% retrace and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish short day. Resolved doji lower. Back below the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 and failed. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).
BPBearish short day. Closed below the 14.6% retrace. Still below the 10 SMA. Daily 3LB reversal (down) with reversal now 45.38.
31 comments:
What was the deal with the Euro today? It just took off around 9:40 and never looked back.
Short squeeze. When everyone is betting one way, watch out the other way.
bob
Ben
The SPX is also below the 23.6% retrace of the 666.79 to 1219.80 move by closing under 1089.29.
Brian Wesbury just on Bloomie at the gym proclaiming the "glass is half full" strategy always works. I can't believe people pay this man money to do what he does.
Manny
"Same as it ever was."
Thanks, Ra.
There really is a lot of good stuff in Andy's work. There is so much, I'm still working through it. Going to give it a lot more thought tonight in conjunction with my own.
Problem I am seeing, from an EW perspective, and why I continue to believe we will go higher than 1103 before we go down HUUUUURRAAAAAY HAAAAAAARD (any curlers out there understand) is there is a bunch of waves breaking rules but just at .1 and .01 of points but it is still breaking the rules. Even when you work off multiple counts and possibilities it is extremely hard to five true 5's that work in the context of an impulsive wave pattern.
I am not too sure about the labelling on Andy's charts (or anyone else's for that matter) but the form of chart 2 and 10 are looking very much like possibilities.
My head is going in to the sand and will have to wait for a break of 1040.78 unless we skyrocket at the open.
mcHappy: I'm glad you got something out of it.....
Ra,
Very interesting on the 23.6 from low to high. Very interesting.
McHappy,
keep in mind AT labels different than traditional EW. It took me a while to get used to just looking at his labels to understand the degree instead of having to look at the labeling key he's got in the back of the updates.
AT,
Dare I say it but that H&S is looking good right now.....
AT,
The larger count slide you have which labels the 07 highs to the 09 lows as an ABC is really interesting. The price and time implications are a little tough to swallow which might be the "fundamental" issue of debt creeping up and influencing. That said, the quickness of that move will be great to trade, it actually matches up with the calls from some other analysts I follow, Harry Dent has a very similar call though a more bearish outcome. Prechter's Primary Wave 3 call would likely get us to that price by next March though if it has indeed started, just a lower ultimate bottom. So far I think your corrective labeling has a cleaner look in a lot of ways than the impulse label, but you could see a subdividing third taking shape here, but as you've pointed out....its taking a long time though.
The slide with the Triple (EWI calling it a Triple ZZ) I've basically seen no solid examples in any market.....the larger shape is correct but perhaps in between that's what a few trillion in pretend money does to markets.
No there is no bubble in Canada.
Check out the reasons for the rate hike:
"Activity in Canada is unfolding largely as expected. The economy grew by a robust 6.1 per cent in the first quarter, led by housing and consumer spending. Employment growth has resumed," the statement read.
LOL ROFLFMAO: housing and consumer spending is driving our GDP - Allelujiah! Praise J-Dawg! The recovery is here!
I am embarrassed to be a Canadian today. After witnessing the effects of a housing bubble of our closest neighbour, ally (i.e. we'll do whatever you want as long as you don't point the nukes at us!), and trading partner over the last 4-5 years, we are indeed that stooopid to follow the exact same path. TSK TSK TSK. Shameful.
Another gem from Canadian MSM:
"The bank's optimism was tempered by worries about "spillover" from the European debt crisis -- which, it noted, has so far been limited -- and said there remains "considerable uncertainty" about an "increasingly uneven" global recovery."
So you mean Europe is not affecting China? Oh and China is not already in a pickle? Oh and where do most of our natural resources go to? Oh and what trend is oil on? Oh and what does all this have to do with Canadian jobs? Oh right, a lot. Oh yeah, and what do jobs have to do with the INSANE amount of debt the average Canadian is carrying? Oh right, it services the debt. Oh yeah, and almost forgot - what happens to the costs of servicing debt when interest rates rise?
I think I'll stop here.
Hello & sorry not around today.
I just read that sales of gold this year for speculative purposes have just passed those for jewelry for the first time since 1980. That didn't work out too well in 1980 so let's see what happens this time.
What an ugly chop slop day in the markets, maybe this is how the week goes until nonfarm.
Ben22: Yeah, that H&S got kaput when the neckline was violated to the downside. The "spirit" is there, but it's not really a H&S now.....
The whole mess is "corrective" the last few days. That much is for sure, and it's not good for bulls.
It's funny what pops out when you look at the futures on a "line on close" basis....The count on Slide 11 actually looks "clearer" when viewed in that context.
Japan's PM quit. Bloomberg.com. Market down.
How much carbon foot print this news will cause,"Al Gore and Tipper split after 40 years". new.yahoo.com
Why why why must they game the futures in the overnight session? Is this the only time TPTB can trade with indiscretion?
I am going to have to start attending our partners' meeting. Turns out we are going to start laying off nurses in the fall. One or two. I always thought we had too many people working in the salt mine, but now apparently others do too.
Had a great weekend, and I bet you guys did too.
here's what some current estimates look like:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aD8QSy9AdOtc&pos=10
so it should be interesting as the market goes lower to see all the claims that people are "too bearish".
AT,
I might have been confusing above, I meant the larger H&S on page 2, I wasn't really a buyer of the inverse, thought too many people were talking about it, was eerily similar to last summers failed pattern.
Ben
Best quote in article from El-Erian:
“Structural changes are often omitted from analysts’ assessments until the evidence is truly overwhelming and the implications have already imposed themselves,” El-Erian, who oversees $1.1 trillion as chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg. “Structural changes are among the hardest things for analysts to identify and to price.”
I wonder what the analysts at PIMCO have as estimates for the S&P.
Ben
Another quote (aka famous last words):
“There’s no way the European debt problems are going to be enough to derail the growth that’s taking place in our economy and in Asia,” said Ramsey, who estimates the S&P 500 will rally at least 19 percent by year-end. “We’re in the camp that hasn’t revised down because of the pullback.”
Ben22: Gotcha. Would suggest that the bigger one is still in play. -AT
AmenRa @ 9:42
Volumes are certainly a lot lighter overnight.
But if you think ESM0 is mispriced, there's nothing preventing you from placing a bet on it.
(For example, I could see some merit in placing a limit order to sell ESM0 at 1080... should it get there tonight).
DL
No futures buying here. Options, ETF and stocks are my forte.
More "pre-November" sentiment indications pouring in...
Sparks wins Dem race for Al. governor; GOP tied
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100602/ap_on_el_gu/us_alabama_governor
You know you want to go to the futures, Ra... liquid 24/5.
The I is conflicted about these SPX monthly charts...
Bounce at 1000 sets up two month rally to 1300s folowed by massive carnage into retest of March 09 lows in the fall?
or
Complete liquidation to 950s now and summer churn out a rounded top around PHI and then sell off again to 800 into the fall?
This is how you earn that NOBEL PEACE PRIZE...
Global arms spending hits record despite downturn
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – Worldwide military spending surged to a record $1.5 trillion last year, defying an economic downturn caused by the global financial crisis, a leading think tank said on Wednesday.
Military spending last year rose 5.9 percent in real terms compared to 2008 with the United States accounting for more than half of that increase, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said in its annual report on arms spending.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_arms_spending
AmenRa @ 11:21
My hat is off to you with respect to the options. (assuming you're making money with them)
DL
One thing I've learned is that if you're using front month options then use ITM options. That way you won't get stopped out as fast if using a 10% or 20% trailing stop. Options (ITM, ATM or OTM) in the other months are not as volatile. I had to learn that quick believe me.
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