TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 6.4.10 In Limbo

Morning Audibles 6.4.10 In Limbo

Don't ask me, I'm a friggin' ball!

But here are some numbers to mull over in your dome...

JUST ABOVE (stacks & stacks of resistance)
1105 = 200 Day Moving Average
1106 = Close of Sept 28th, 2008, the day the crash accelerated
1110 = .09 fibo retrace from 1219.8
1115 = 2009 close
1121 = 50% re-tracement of 666-1576

JUST BELOW (as in "lookout")
1101 = KT
1097 = Wangers Magical Mystical Number

So basically, CV has determined that the only thing holding up the entire market these days are karen & Wanger...

Now... What can either of you do about plugging that oil gusher?

529 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 400 of 529 Newer› Newest»

McFearless said...: wow:

Even worse: They will continue to sell the perfect-game seats all season up to a full stadium capacity of 75,000, even though the baseball capacity is 37,000. In other words, they will be selling tickets that were not for sale that night.

and that pic of Ruiz and Halladay is hilarious.; June 4, 2010 at 11:58 AM
I-Man said...: Karen!

Isnt this exactly what we've been saying?

From Coop-Dog:

" don’t know when I can recall so many astute technicians/traders pointing to a potential short-term Inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern that could project to 1140. However, in the markets, what's obvious is often obviously not worth knowing. Many of these same technicians are bearish looking "to play" the pop to 1140 anticipating a long, broad right shoulder to be carved out over the summer. Perhaps. But I haven't heard anyone point to the possibility that the S&P has already traced out a "dwarf, droop" right shoulder. This is the same pattern that existed prior to the crash in 1929. "; June 4, 2010 at 12:00 PM
Mannwich said...: @cv: WTF?!?!?! Are you fucking serious? Sounds like some of the shenanigans that Wall Street pulls, only on a much smaller more inconsequential scale. Our new country's motto should be: "Counterfeiting and fraud - the new economy. Catch the Fever."; June 4, 2010 at 12:01 PM
I-Man said...: @ anon

Market calls bullshit on that...

only EUR buying I'm seeing is on behalf of those selling AUD...; June 4, 2010 at 12:01 PM
McFearless said...: I-man,

P3 isn't supposed to let anyone in on the short side....I wonder if this keeps happening all the way down, giving bulls hope to buy dips and keeping bears worried about a larger bounce and thinking they'll get better short entries.; June 4, 2010 at 12:02 PM
Mannwich said...: @cv: I would say BOTH to answer your question. That really says it all about the sad state of affairs in this country. I wonder if anyone will end up selling jars of oil from the epic oil spill? I mean, after all, you want to own a part of this historic event.; June 4, 2010 at 12:02 PM
McFearless said...: those tickets selling is truly insane, disgusting, if I played on the marlins i'd be ashamed of the beating I took and then my employers attempt to profit of it in such a sleazy manner, as long as I have my whip and giant house that is.; June 4, 2010 at 12:04 PM
McFearless said...: Manny 12:02

man, really not funny but that is a great comment:

"I wonder if anyone will end up selling jars of oil from the epic oil spill?"

I can just see it "authentic spilled gulf oil sold here"

later they will sell portions of the busted pipe.; June 4, 2010 at 12:05 PM
karen said...: I-Man.. I almost posted that quote separately, too.. don't we at least have to get to 1048?

Ben, I have lot of short positions.. my only problem is deciding whether to sell out completely in fear of some intervention.. or just sell higher priced shares, keeping a core..; June 4, 2010 at 12:07 PM
karen said...: just received this report from stockcharts.. A break below 107 would increase the chances of a bigger break below the February-May lows. Should SPY hold above 107, a break above 111 would show bullish resilience and keep the major support level intact.; June 4, 2010 at 12:08 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Just catching up on some comments.

Couldn't find where KO conversation came from - albeit I did not look too hard either - but long term BAMInvestor has a target of $12 (not a typo).; June 4, 2010 at 12:08 PM
Mannwich said...: This is REALLY bad. Tar balls washing ashore the FL panhandle.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/04/oil-on-florida-beaches-ta_n_600503.html; June 4, 2010 at 12:11 PM
CV said...: How about grains of sand that Obama walked on and touched on his concerned trip down there (the day before his vacation)?

Hell, they sold a former clunky old cigarette smelling Jeep Cherokee of his on e-Bay the other week...

http://digital-bids.com/2010/05/12/photo-obamas-jeep-sold-26k-at-auction-post-chronicle/; June 4, 2010 at 12:12 PM
karen said...: faz was at 18 last week and is barely 15 today.. maybe i should take my point gain and forget about it..; June 4, 2010 at 12:12 PM
AmenRa said...: CV

I'm over here CTFU at the Magic 8 Ball.; June 4, 2010 at 12:13 PM
AmenRa said...: Karen

Can you add a trailing stop to your positions? At least you could ride it out and get stopped out if there is intervention.; June 4, 2010 at 12:15 PM
CV said...: @McF

Colbert had another hilarious schtick on that yesterday too... (first two videos)

http://www.colbertnation.com/home; June 4, 2010 at 12:16 PM
Mannwich said...: @ben: Not funny at all but would you put it past SOME people at this point to do this? I wouldn't.

I lived in NYC through 9/11 and the number of people hawking ghoulish items down there right after the event was enough to make anyone as cynical as me.; June 4, 2010 at 12:17 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Another couple of interesting things I've noticed playing with the FIBO's. Let us assume that wave 1 ended at 1040.78. From 1219.80 (just before the close on April 26th) to 1040.78 (just before the close on May 25th) is 21 days.

8 days from the bottom takes us to just before the close on Monday, June 7th. This happens to be a .382 retracement in terms of days.

13 days from the bottom takes us to just before the close on Monday, June 14th. This happens to be a .618 retracement in terms of days.

.382 retracement of 1219.90-1040.78 is 1109.17.

.618 retracment of 1219.78-1040.78 is 1151.41.

Interesting numbers.; June 4, 2010 at 12:18 PM
karen said...: AR, that's what i was thinking i might do.. and yes, i can.. never used it before but under the circumstances..; June 4, 2010 at 12:19 PM
I-Man said...: Karen, have you considered just holding the best one, and leveraging into it?

I always trade best with one position, myself.

Things get too hectic for me if I have more than three.; June 4, 2010 at 12:20 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I added some long positions in here. Hoping to unload on Monday. We'll see.; June 4, 2010 at 12:21 PM
AmenRa said...: Carry traders are being carried out on stretchers.

*with oxygen masks on; June 4, 2010 at 12:22 PM
karen said...: i-man.. i do have too many tickers right now, so i think i will scale down..; June 4, 2010 at 12:22 PM
karen said...: but then i look at spy and it isn't even slightly oversold yet, laughing..; June 4, 2010 at 12:23 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Don't dicker with the ticker.; June 4, 2010 at 12:24 PM
karen said...: is that a rev H&S on DRV? or an OBVIOUS rev H&S ???; June 4, 2010 at 12:25 PM
karen said...: same with SRS.. silly to have both but i couldn't help myself. : ); June 4, 2010 at 12:29 PM
CV said...: @karen

Want something to short?

WHR

Now that's what I call a "Whirlpool" (if you're long)...; June 4, 2010 at 12:29 PM
CV said...: look at it over 10 years...; June 4, 2010 at 12:30 PM
I-Man said...: Damn girl, you need inverse etf rehab...; June 4, 2010 at 12:32 PM
CV said...: @DL

Your 1150 call yesterday looks like it's kind of caught in a Whirlpool today as well... :-); June 4, 2010 at 12:32 PM
Mannwich said...: @karen: Precisely why I don't play with the money vampires anymore. I can't believe those pieces of crap are still trading.; June 4, 2010 at 12:32 PM
CV said...: Must be the pause that refreshes...

Feeling "refreshed"?

Note: CV is practically in the same boat (because I was yapping about the 1120's)... LOL; June 4, 2010 at 12:33 PM
I-Man said...: A lot of EUR squeeze rumors going around... GS is kind of telegraphing squeeze...

But I dont buy it. Sounds like a parlor trick to I and I.; June 4, 2010 at 12:33 PM
CV said...: @Manny (12:32)

I would say, however, that a VIX over 30 makes those "money vampires" more intriguing 9for a day trader - at least)...; June 4, 2010 at 12:35 PM
karen said...: CV, the insanity of WHR hitting an all time high this year is truly an upset to me.. i'll bet their books are cooked, too.; June 4, 2010 at 12:35 PM
I-Man said...: How many times does the SPX need to get pimp slapped by PHI before it gets the message?; June 4, 2010 at 12:35 PM
karen said...: remember i'm a no margin girl! i can't short stocks.. can only short via etfs..; June 4, 2010 at 12:36 PM
Mannwich said...: Possibly, cv. I do think they're going to shoot higher at SOME point. The question, as always, is timing.; June 4, 2010 at 12:37 PM
CV said...: I gotta say...

Remember a few weeks ago? CV "shorted" BIDU within cents from the top...

And I could never get that thing down to 62 (where I wanted to unload)...

I finally had to unload it around 72...

It's still jerking around trying to make it back to 82...

STUBBORN!; June 4, 2010 at 12:38 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 12:36

Which will forever remain a mystery.; June 4, 2010 at 12:39 PM
CV said...: @karen

If I had Warren Buffet type money (and a long timeframe)...

I think I'd just slap a huge hunk of SHORT money on Whirlpool and call it a decade!; June 4, 2010 at 12:40 PM
I-Man said...: This next wave down is gonna be a doozy... 1072 is going to be a cream puff support level.; June 4, 2010 at 12:41 PM
CV said...: CV hasn't made a trade since putting on the hedge at 1042 (8 days ago)...

I'm kind of itchin to get back in the drivers seat... So this day is really kind of disappointing to me...

A "pop" at the open would have given the opportunity to un-hedge and go SHORTER...

All this does is delay things (for a week or more)...; June 4, 2010 at 12:43 PM
karen said...: DL@12:36, you must be forgetting how I love to kiss, sighing delightedly.; June 4, 2010 at 12:45 PM
CV said...: @I-Man (12:41)

I don't see it that way...

I think 1072 has a good chance to hold... (and if not - I'm MORE confident that 1065 would - for now)...; June 4, 2010 at 12:45 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

Ra has a good point, using trailers in 08 worked well, got me through September without getting burned with some of the huge swings.

Manny,

that 9/11 stuff, I don't even know what to say, that's just sick. Also, i saw people on tv this morning scooping up tar balls in FL, one of them said you could smell the oil just standing on the shore.....; June 4, 2010 at 12:46 PM
mcHAPPY said...: mcHAPPY's theory is resting on 1074.92 and after that 1069.89.; June 4, 2010 at 12:47 PM
McFearless said...: C,

us and our fibo's, I haven't done anything in 8 days either.; June 4, 2010 at 12:47 PM
CV said...: @karen

I don't see why you don't just get a MARGIN ACCOUNT...

I have one... I just don't go into margin usage (unless by 'clerical error')...; June 4, 2010 at 12:47 PM
mcHAPPY said...: CV,

I'd be interested in your thoughts regarding my FIBO jibberish above.; June 4, 2010 at 12:47 PM
I-Man said...: I-Man is getting deja vu of the flash crash day where all eyes were on the EUR, when it was the JPY making all the noise...; June 4, 2010 at 12:47 PM
CV said...: @McF

The market will teach you PATIENCE... if nothing else...; June 4, 2010 at 12:48 PM
McFearless said...: I know there is a lot of news about the spill but I'm a bit surprised at the level of complacenecy about this when I discuss it with people.

Of course last night, I did have a client tell me she wanted all the BP's execs to be shot.; June 4, 2010 at 12:48 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 12:48

I just hope it doesn't come up the east coast. I may want to go to Cape Hatteras this summer.; June 4, 2010 at 12:50 PM
CV said...: @McF

scooping up tar balls in FL, one of them said you could smell the oil just standing on the shore...

Aaah so that explains it (why McF likes Florida)...

It would "smell" just like Wilmington, Deleware :-); June 4, 2010 at 12:51 PM
karen said...: CV, i'll be changing my account sometime this year as a result of my D. I would rather short individual stocks, it is true..; June 4, 2010 at 12:51 PM
CV said...: @Mchappy (12:18)

I'll have to dig back among the posts, but I spoke of the June 7th & June 14th dates in the comments on a thread over a week and a half ago...

Saying those days were circled in red on my calendar...; June 4, 2010 at 12:53 PM
I-Man said...: Only thing I smell right here is a bull trap.; June 4, 2010 at 12:53 PM
McFearless said...: CV,

Oh, so you've driven through here with the windows down?

495 in the morning when it is raining and hot....wow, you choke trying to breath.; June 4, 2010 at 12:54 PM
Anonymous said...: You don't have to use margin. You can also set stops on your shorts. What's not to like?; June 4, 2010 at 12:54 PM
Mannwich said...: Why be surprised, ben? Think about complacent many were, and still are, during the financial crisis? Some people just live in their own little la-la land bubble.; June 4, 2010 at 12:54 PM
karen said...: looking ahead.. consumer credit and some auctions on monday.. not much on tuesday..; June 4, 2010 at 12:54 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

have you seen this?, re: oil on the east coast:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE-1G_476nA&feature=player_embedded

scary; June 4, 2010 at 12:55 PM
CV said...: @karen

It surely improves ones "ARSENAL" of trading ideas to have that...; June 4, 2010 at 12:56 PM
McFearless said...: yeah good point manny, sometimes I forget it's not just with money that people do that.; June 4, 2010 at 12:56 PM
karen said...: oops, GS nearing HOD; June 4, 2010 at 12:57 PM
mcHAPPY said...: No worries, CV. Don't think I'm trying to take any credit for a call or anything. You most likely did throw something like this out there. I'm just trying to make sense of this stuff because quite frankly it feels like Mr. Market can't decide if he wants fried bear or smoked bull for supper this evening.; June 4, 2010 at 12:58 PM
CV said...: @McF

Wait until the first Hurricane picks it up and rains it down on everyones heads...

It would be apropos for a 1938 style Hurricane to come along and dump it all on Lloyd Blankfeins lawn in the Hamptons...; June 4, 2010 at 1:00 PM
karen said...: more fed madness from zh: For all who think that the Fed has received the Ukrainian-cum-Marriott Garden Inn unlimited one-hour special giftset only from the TBTF banks, you are wrong: it appears the broke real-estate industry has also provided some favors to the FRBNY, and is now demanding, and receiving, preferential treatment. Tishman Speyer, whose 5.7 million sq. foot portfolio acquired from Blackstone in 2007, has been unable to renovate its insolvent properties as lenders have been unwilling to negotiate a restructuring. One of the lenders is none other than the Federal Reserve, which took over loan commitments by Bear Stearns. Crains New York reports that the FRBNY has finally relented and at what likely is a loss to taxpayers, has given Tishman $100 million to restructure its loans at preferential terms. Tishman's take on this development was pretty clear: "It's great for our tenants and it's great news for everybody we do business with,” said Casey Wold, Tishman senior managing director in Chicago. “We now have enough capital to improve the properties and lease up the entire portfolio to stabilization." Thank you taxpayers - you now have indirectly bailed out the following Chicago properties: Civic Opera Building, 10 & 30 S. Wacker Drive complex,1 N. Franklin St., 161 N. Clark St. and 30 N. LaSalle St.; June 4, 2010 at 1:00 PM
AmenRa said...: Lloyd & Jamie caling BB "We need more money! We can only hold off the bears for so long. We don't care if it's repo, talf, tarp, mob, or drug. Just hurry it up!"; June 4, 2010 at 1:01 PM
CV said...: Then he could be doing "Gods Work" cleaning up the mess...; June 4, 2010 at 1:01 PM
CV said...: IMO...

Were looking at the last wiggle coming up...

1065-1072

PPT better be ready to make a last stand at 1065...; June 4, 2010 at 1:03 PM
arbitrage789 said...: At least this oil spill is going to create a lot of job opportunities.... cleaning beaches.; June 4, 2010 at 1:04 PM
AmenRa said...: Karen

Don't forget the Fed owns Red Roof Inn. Wonder if they'll get a break now LMAO.; June 4, 2010 at 1:05 PM
CV said...: @Amen

Red Roof Inn...

They ought to contemplate a name change...

"Red INK Inn"; June 4, 2010 at 1:06 PM
I-Man said...: Keep your eyes on the yen crosses, folks...

I smell a bloodbath.; June 4, 2010 at 1:06 PM
CV said...: @DL (1:04)

And who, may I ask, pays the bill for that?; June 4, 2010 at 1:08 PM
karen said...: CV, QE pays the bill i bet!!; June 4, 2010 at 1:10 PM
Obama said...: CV,

More "stimulus".; June 4, 2010 at 1:10 PM
karen said...: one more break of 72 by crude and I think 70 is next..; June 4, 2010 at 1:11 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 1:08

No one has to pay for it until after the next presidential election.; June 4, 2010 at 1:11 PM
McFearless said...: who pays for it....pfft, no worries, it'll come from the "profits" the government somehow claims off eventual fines for BP.

not to mention, the jobs would only likely be temp and only serve to offset jobs lost by the same oil spill.; June 4, 2010 at 1:14 PM
Mannwich said...: @cv: "Pay?" "Bill?" Whatever do you mean? ;-); June 4, 2010 at 1:14 PM
Mannwich said...: Maybe Census workers can also be put to work cleaning up the spill? Then when another catastrophe comes along, we can just shift them to that one and on and on.; June 4, 2010 at 1:15 PM
AmenRa said...: Trin (using $ VOL)

S&P 0.52
NYSE 2.03
NASDAQ 2.59

Net $ VOL

S&P -53M
NYSE -15M
NASDAQ -24M

Bull shish kabobs are almost ready. Who wants one?; June 4, 2010 at 1:16 PM
I-Man said...: We might end up with one of those flash thingy's here shortly...

I'm not sure if the market is ready for another massive carry liq...; June 4, 2010 at 1:17 PM
CV said...: That's what irks me about politicians in general (but PARTICULARLY these ones)...

In the way they act, I honestly believe that THEY THINK that it's their policies that are creating jobs...

Like Obama just walks into office and through his benificience, effin CENSUS jobs are created...

Oh thanks... we're so glad you had the ultimate wisdom to not DISCONTINUE something that has been going on on a decade basis that is REQUIRED in the Constitution...

One of the few "Constitutional" matters he hasn't trampled all over in his tenure...; June 4, 2010 at 1:17 PM
karen said...: BnT to arrive any minute with popcorn?; June 4, 2010 at 1:18 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

Bruce might to do nuts on Friday's. funny comment though.; June 4, 2010 at 1:22 PM
McFearless said...: wow, what the hell did I just post...Bruce might do doughnuts on friday...

yikes, better just stick to the tape.; June 4, 2010 at 1:22 PM
Mannwich said...: Put those Dow 10K hats back in the closet - AGAIN.; June 4, 2010 at 1:23 PM
karen said...: $vix candle is too short !!; June 4, 2010 at 1:23 PM
CV said...: Do you all realize that the Lincoln Penny is the only coin in which the figure faces RIGHT?; June 4, 2010 at 1:24 PM
McFearless said...: well, wouldn't mind seeing us bust through the 1069.89 with some authority.; June 4, 2010 at 1:25 PM
karen said...: LB, this is for you! Manhattan Empty Condos May Become Rentals as Leases Beat Sales:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601206&sid=aQ26jbABFaxA; June 4, 2010 at 1:26 PM
CV said...: Last Friday was a 20:1 up day...

The price level of that move has now been reclaimed...; June 4, 2010 at 1:26 PM
AmenRa said...: Karen

Did you see the Trin ($ VOL) I posted? There is a lot of money flowing into the S&P to keep it from blowing up.; June 4, 2010 at 1:27 PM
CV said...: I meant, Last Thursday...

Short week, I forgot...; June 4, 2010 at 1:28 PM
CV said...: @Amen

What's HILARIOUS is that it's all right on 10,000...

Just like the 8 ball says... :-); June 4, 2010 at 1:29 PM
McFearless said...: Ra,

Trin has been hard to read lately....all over the place, but I do think the trend there is meaningful since this rally started.; June 4, 2010 at 1:29 PM
I-Man said...: I saw it Ra, and what I cant figure out is how the hell they havent figured out that the longer they put the shit off, the deeper the low is going to be...; June 4, 2010 at 1:31 PM
I-Man said...: Doesnt have to be this way...; June 4, 2010 at 1:32 PM
I-Man said...: I just remembered that those Bilderberg DB's are meeting over the weekend... I bet thats a real fun crowd to party with... PFFTTT!!!; June 4, 2010 at 1:34 PM
AmenRa said...: Ben

I constructed a Trin using the $ VOL instead of just volume to try and get a better picture. The readings are a little different but it shows the dollar amount being traded into the issues. You can have adv beating decl but then have more money going into decl which says something different.; June 4, 2010 at 1:36 PM
karen said...: http://www.risk.net/risk-magazine/news/1652754/mortgage-lenders-fret-fasb-hedging-proposals

Mortgage lenders fret over FASB hedging proposals
Author: Duncan Wood Source: Risk magazine | 04 Jun 2010 Categories: Accounting, Derivatives Topics: mortgages, hedging, IAS 39, duration, interest rate risk, Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), Prepayment risk
Popular risk mitigation strategies could be sunk by new rules on the designation of hedges
Banks and derivatives end-users worry they will find it harder to hedge if a bumper package of US accounting reform proposals is implemented. The exposure draft, published on May 26, is the Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) first attempt to rewrite the rules for financial instruments, and touches on a host of topics that are close to the banking industry's heart. The proposals on hedge accounting are prompting squawks of alarm from mortgage lenders in particular.; June 4, 2010 at 1:36 PM
karen said...: A developer talking: Cisneros: Profiteers, Not Government, To Blame for Housing Crisis

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/06/03/cisneros-profiteers-not-government-to-blame-for-housing-crisis/; June 4, 2010 at 1:38 PM
I-Man said...: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2010/jun/04/bilderberg-charlie-skelton-protesters; June 4, 2010 at 1:39 PM
AmenRa said...: Paging Mr. Phat Phinger. Paging Mr. Phat Phinger. Your shift begins at 2:30 today. Try to be on time.; June 4, 2010 at 1:39 PM
karen said...: 1065 could stop the drop..; June 4, 2010 at 1:41 PM
Tim Geithner said...: Stop the selling!

The economy is recovering!; June 4, 2010 at 1:41 PM
karen said...: if 1070 doesn't..; June 4, 2010 at 1:41 PM
CV said...: What happened to your money at the bank... EXPLAINED...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnU0MlaJBOM&feature=related; June 4, 2010 at 1:43 PM
mcHAPPY said...: I might buy some TNA because the stop is obviously very short here.

On second thought, I do not think I have the testicular fortitude to do that.; June 4, 2010 at 1:44 PM
McFearless said...: Ra,

interesting, it would seem doing it that way eliminates the noise so to speak. How long have you been doing that, long enough to see any trends?; June 4, 2010 at 1:47 PM
karen said...: cute southpark!; June 4, 2010 at 1:47 PM
CV said...: @McHappy

Not even if we offer you all our "athletic support"?; June 4, 2010 at 1:48 PM
McFearless said...: "Paging Mr. Phat Phinger. Paging Mr. Phat Phinger. Your shift begins at 2:30 today. Try to be on time."

sorry, he's booked today, was requested to travel to the gulf to use his giant thumb to plug the leak.; June 4, 2010 at 1:48 PM
karen said...: wow, if you look at srs on a weekly.. the trendline off the 23.94 low taps every candle!; June 4, 2010 at 1:49 PM
karen said...: sell this week and by again next week under 27.50?; June 4, 2010 at 1:51 PM
AmenRa said...: Ben

Not that long. I've been trying to better track money flows because where the money is going the market is going. Rock (at sis board) brought up the idea.; June 4, 2010 at 1:51 PM
McFearless said...: if we can't close below 1069 we may have a pretty large rally next week.; June 4, 2010 at 1:51 PM
karen said...: seeing gs green is annoying as heck.; June 4, 2010 at 1:52 PM
CV said...: It's a STRETCH to say this does this precisely...

But if you take the LOWS from now (thru the 5/26 low)...

...and extend it backwards to last year?

You're at the launch point from last July's lows...

Just saying...; June 4, 2010 at 1:53 PM
karen said...: You can look for one, but you won't find it ...

Look for what?

A better index that shows what the market is really doing, that can't be manipulated, or traded as an index.

Long time readers know that this index is called the Institutional Index of "core holdings". It represents where Institutional Investors have most of their money invested at any given point in time.

The core stocks in this index changes fairly often, and it does so, in accordance to what percentage of the overall Institutional funds have been invested in particular stocks.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm; June 4, 2010 at 1:54 PM
AmenRa said...: Uh oh. Dow finally took out its earlier low...; June 4, 2010 at 1:54 PM
karen said...: They are bombing on Camp Pen as if there is a war starting tomorrow.. my house is shaking.. and i have a big solid house.. UFB.; June 4, 2010 at 1:56 PM
McFearless said...: you can really see people holding on to the bull idea, apple is down today but really, what, $13 from the peak in April? And some simple math shows people are slapping a 125x multiple on sales of the iPad.....; June 4, 2010 at 1:57 PM
I-Man said...: Time to unleash the Uruk-Hai...; June 4, 2010 at 1:57 PM
McFearless said...: no, that wasnt' stated right, 125x p/e on incremental earnings from iPad.; June 4, 2010 at 1:58 PM
McFearless said...: Frodo just ran by the office here.; June 4, 2010 at 1:58 PM
McFearless said...: I'm with David Einhorn, we do not need these guys, as if anyone paying attention needed to be told:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100604-709550.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope; June 4, 2010 at 2:00 PM
mcHAPPY said...: I keep having to tell myself two things right now:

1) Markets do not top on bad news.

2) Even if this is the start of minor 3, minute 1 is going to be over soon enough.; June 4, 2010 at 2:03 PM
CV said...: @McHappy

Or, you could just tell yourself...

MUST...NOT...CLOSE...UNDER...10,000; June 4, 2010 at 2:08 PM
CV said...: A couple of years ago, CV looked at all these "academics" (like Bernanke & Obama) and just laughed them off as that... "academics"...

Who realized they were THIS pathetic?; June 4, 2010 at 2:10 PM
AmenRa said...: The trendline using the 3/6/09 & 2/5/10 lows has been broken to the downside. This was the 5th crossing of the line.; June 4, 2010 at 2:12 PM
CV said...: If we hold 1065, put up a solid bounce from there... then retrace 61.8% of that...

CV may nibble some on the long end...; June 4, 2010 at 2:12 PM
McFearless said...: Doug Kass
Memo to Tim "Mr. Bates" Collins
6/4/2010 11:03 AM EDT

I am now more than all-in on mortgage insurers!
I am very committed to the group, which has the best reward vs. risk of any sector I follow in the markets.
MGIC Investment (MTG) is my favorite.
More to come, Tim. I will write them up next week as a Kass Katch.
P.S. -- If you look back at the archives, they were in the last bubble a Kass Katch as well (but in that case as SHORTS!).
Position: Long MTG, PMI and RDN; June 4, 2010 at 2:13 PM
CV said...: @Amen

Trace a trendline from the July 10th close (last year) - through the May 26th closing candle - then through the forming candle today...

See what you see...; June 4, 2010 at 2:14 PM
karen said...: vxx has crazy gaps above 31.. check on the daily chart.; June 4, 2010 at 2:15 PM
karen said...: oh, cv @ 2:14.. can't you just give the number? please?; June 4, 2010 at 2:16 PM
CV said...: @McF

Is that "Mr. Bates" or "Master Bates"?; June 4, 2010 at 2:17 PM
McFearless said...: the latter.; June 4, 2010 at 2:19 PM
CV said...: @karen

I don't know the number, it's just a visual (I'll try to put the chart in the thread here)...

All I know is that we're right on it...

I can't say if the market is trying to SUPPORT here, or if it's ready to break down...

My "gut" tells me that it'll find a way to support, FOR NOW...; June 4, 2010 at 2:19 PM
karen said...: U.S. banking institutions spent $1.8 million on lobbyists during the first quarter as they aimed to get their voices heard in regard to the financial regulation overhaul. The American Bankers Association reported the amount, which was paid by its members, including Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), among others.

http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/06/04/bank-of-america-nyse-bac-citigroup-nyse-c-several-others-spend-total-of-1-8-million-lobbying-in-q1/; June 4, 2010 at 2:19 PM
CV said...: chart forthcoming...; June 4, 2010 at 2:20 PM
I-Man said...: Looks like we'll play the same game again, but this time with GS at 144, we have SPX at 1072...; June 4, 2010 at 2:20 PM
karen said...: we have to do 1070 at a min.. and that should break.. it's already broken 4 times since May!!!!; June 4, 2010 at 2:21 PM
AmenRa said...: CV

1073 using closes and 1048 using the lows.; June 4, 2010 at 2:23 PM
72bat said...: karen -
ONLY "$1.8 million on lobbyists during the first quarter"? not per day?; June 4, 2010 at 2:28 PM
AmenRa said...: NYSE TICK just made a new low (-1197) since hitting -1131 at the open.; June 4, 2010 at 2:29 PM
CV said...: @Amen @karen

Chart in Thread Now

Amen - The interesting thing is that a few days off that July low of last year, equities put in a 23:1 up day (that's where the daily gap resides in the low 900's)...

Today - we just covered - DOWN - a 20:1 up day from 5 days ago...

So the fact that this trendline "connects", to me, is NOT insignificant...; June 4, 2010 at 2:30 PM
karen said...: Brief Update On Tishman Speyer's Fed "Rescue" Conflict Of Interest
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/04/2010 13:24
Earlier we reported that the Fed is now in the business of bailing out real estate companies, specifically Tishman Speyer. Little did we realize we are about to have another Stephen Friedman moment on our hands. It may, but probably won't, come as a surprise, that Jerry Speyer is on the Board of Directors of the very same Fed that approved the restructuring of his firm's loans in Chicago. We are confident Jerry recused himself of any deliberations that used taxpayer money to provide his firm with a couple hundred million in immediate funding.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/brief-update-tishman-speyers-fed-rescue-conflict-interest; June 4, 2010 at 2:33 PM
CV said...: Mr. TOPSTEP says... (not Danny)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7XHiag6Q-Y; June 4, 2010 at 2:35 PM
karen said...: i shouldn't jinx this but we aren't bouncing very hard off 1070...; June 4, 2010 at 2:36 PM
CV said...: It keeps looking like they're going to mark that 1065...; June 4, 2010 at 2:37 PM
karen said...: crude still dropping..; June 4, 2010 at 2:37 PM
karen said...: yup 1065 coming up.; June 4, 2010 at 2:38 PM
mcHAPPY said...: oh shit... just saw 1069.86; June 4, 2010 at 2:38 PM
AmenRa said...: $Trin (using dollar amount of volume):

S&P 0.58
NYSE 6.07
NASDAQ 2.91

Pushing higher on all of them.; June 4, 2010 at 2:39 PM
CV said...: It feels almost like an OPEX day where the market is hellbent on printing a strike...; June 4, 2010 at 2:40 PM
karen said...: just sold half my srs but have the really cheap shares left : ); June 4, 2010 at 2:40 PM
CV said...: @karen

Did you look at the TOPSTEP link?

That's the number they were talking about yesterday too...; June 4, 2010 at 2:41 PM
Mannwich said...: @karen: UFB. They don't even bother to hide the corruption and criminality anymore and no doubt find it TOTALLY justified.; June 4, 2010 at 2:42 PM
CV said...: But you all know what's coming?

1065... Then that "miracle save" in the last 30 minutes... To take us to...

1073 SPX

10,000 (plus a smidge) on DOW...; June 4, 2010 at 2:43 PM
karen said...: yes, CV.. i watched, sighing. darling fellow but his voice leaves a lot to be desired : ); June 4, 2010 at 2:44 PM
karen said...: that makes SIX times on a daily basis spx had undercut 1070 in 30 days...; June 4, 2010 at 2:45 PM
McFearless said...: C,

i think so, huge battle to stay above 1070 at the close I'm thinking; June 4, 2010 at 2:47 PM
AmenRa said...: OMG NYSE Trin at 7 and climbing. On 5/6/10 its high was only 3.37.; June 4, 2010 at 2:47 PM
Mannwich said...: There goes GS into the red.; June 4, 2010 at 2:48 PM
AmenRa said...: OK calm down. It had a high of 10.55 on 5/20/10.; June 4, 2010 at 2:49 PM
Mannwich said...: There she blows. Phat phingers abound.; June 4, 2010 at 2:49 PM
Mannwich said...: And on cue we get this gem from our friend Dick "the Dick" Bove:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dick-bove-cuts-goldman-price-target-200-182; June 4, 2010 at 2:51 PM
CV said...: I'm going to take a chance and go a little long here...

Who's going to carry me on the shield? :-); June 4, 2010 at 2:52 PM
Mannwich said...: Uh oh. Someone call Timmy!; June 4, 2010 at 2:52 PM
Mannwich said...: @cv: What are you buying? C?; June 4, 2010 at 2:53 PM
AmenRa said...: NYSE Trin new high 12.46. Looks like we may need crowd control.; June 4, 2010 at 2:53 PM
AmenRa said...: Let's see how long the defense of 1065 can last during the onslaught.; June 4, 2010 at 2:55 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Last time I ever go conservative.; June 4, 2010 at 2:55 PM
CV said...: @Manny

No... Just the "indices"...

Very tight on the stop here (I'll probably chicken out and close it up by the end of the day)...; June 4, 2010 at 2:56 PM
CV said...: All I can say is... TARGET HIT...

1065...

Roll the Dice and take your chances...; June 4, 2010 at 2:57 PM
karen said...: oops, not much of a bounce off 1065.. well, an hour to go..; June 4, 2010 at 2:58 PM
Mannwich said...: @cv: You and Wanger.; June 4, 2010 at 2:58 PM
McFearless said...: C,

On the wave count, and I'm a bit gun shy of this count, but fwiw, EWI did say this on Wed:

A break of 1069.89, the wave (b) of ii (circle) low in the S&P, will be the initial signal that wave iii (circle) of 3 down is underway. The equivalent DJIA level is 10,013.90.; June 4, 2010 at 2:59 PM
CV said...: @karen

I was going to say... "Let's see if we get a promising bounce off of here"...

I'M GUMBY DAMMIT! :-); June 4, 2010 at 2:59 PM
I-Man said...: I wouldnt go long here even for a swing...; June 4, 2010 at 3:00 PM
I-Man said...: Remember the Alamo, CV.; June 4, 2010 at 3:01 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Ben,

EWI alternate count is still in play though. I really do not know what to do. Next stop 1040.78.; June 4, 2010 at 3:03 PM
Mack said...: EW also said a break of $17.80 in silver would lead to another nice decline. Anyone feeling the love on ZSL like I am today?; June 4, 2010 at 3:03 PM
CV said...: @McF

I went for it anyway...

My initial thoughts are that we'll get a decent enough bounce to put a STOP on (and break even at worst)...

Seems kind of oversold here...

The most I'd expect now would be to get back to 1080-ish...; June 4, 2010 at 3:03 PM
McFearless said...: "I really do not know what to do. Next stop 1040.78."

then don't do anything; June 4, 2010 at 3:05 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

I'm just doing a trade so that I can look like a fool and you all can BEAT ME UP over the weekend for making a dumb call :-)...

CV is "takin one for the team" here...; June 4, 2010 at 3:05 PM
McFearless said...: C,

yep, makes perfect sense to me, I'm sort of with the I-man, not messing long here, I was actually looking at GS calls last night and then I slapped myself in the face.; June 4, 2010 at 3:05 PM
McFearless said...: Yo Mack,

there is no count on silver but good enough when that sentiment hits 95% bulls, three times in a row now it preceeded large declines....Nice going on the ZSL.; June 4, 2010 at 3:06 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Don't do anything is a given.

My thoughts right now are a break of 1081.02 puts this in doubt as the start of minor 3 and a break of 1040.78 confirms it.

Screw it. I'm off.; June 4, 2010 at 3:07 PM
I-Man said...: Hey, I-Man has made enough bad trades to never give anyone else shit about their's.

It was just a word of caution, meant in the kindest way possible.; June 4, 2010 at 3:07 PM
karen said...: for you ben, from Jim Sinclair!

If you do not see the hand of intervention in the gold market early this morning you are either wearing welders gear or are simply inept in this field.

Like the euro intervention being useless in the grand scheme of things, so is the gold intervention this morning.

Above $1224 the manipulators will lose their influence in the price of gold. We sure witnessed that last US night in the euro.

The real numbers now that you will not hear on F-TV are $1.19 and then $1.10, below which the euro will collapse. This will return us to the dark ages in Forex, but will be good for the business of Forex trading.; June 4, 2010 at 3:07 PM
CV said...: @McF

I'm going to get my answer, probably, in the next 5 minutes...

Spider senses are tingling...; June 4, 2010 at 3:08 PM
CV said...: I had the 1068 level calibrated as sort of a 261.8% of the move down...

So I'm kinda watching that as the barrier to the overthrow...; June 4, 2010 at 3:10 PM

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Morning Audibles 6.4.10 In Limbo

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