WEEKEND EDITION - Fly Down (in the Belmont)

A smart person knows when to quit while they're ahead... (or, I think that's the accepted logic)...


Frankly, CV never bought into that theory very much... It's utterly stupid... I mean what's the purpose? To "lock in" gains? (which, in your newly transformed QUITTERS role, you'll probably wind up tossing back into the arena in another way anyway)... What are you supposed to do after? Take up knitting?...


So why quit? To gain comfort? I hate hearing things on TV like what I heard recently about LeBron James (and where he winds up in free agency)... The comments (from the sportscasters) are like... "Well it doesn't matter where he goes because he's SET FOR LIFE financially"... Screw that... If I don't think that I have the capacity to rebuild, multiple times over, and generate anything from scratch, I might as well just pack it in...


But others think, once you're set for life financially, all your worries will disappear, so at that point, why bother even having ANY GOALS at all?... Quit while you're ahead! Right?


OTOH




OK OK... This is all just CV being overly dramatic in doing one simple thing... I managed to nail the KENTUCKY DERBY winner with my call on SUPER SAVER... It seemed to me that "Socioeconomics" were at play (with that NAME)... 


So I'm going to try to BOOKEND that call by taking FLY DOWN in the Belmont Stakes... $200 on his nose...


He looked pretty impressive in the Grade 2 Dwyer (at Belmont)... We'll see how it goes...





33 comments:

BinT said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Private-employers-hold-back-apf-573465896.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

Private employers hold back on hiring in May

"The number of net jobs created each month is calculated from a government survey of companies. The unemployment rate, which has not fallen far from its quarter-century high of 10.1 percent in October, is derived from a separate survey of households.

Some analysts think the rate could peak in June at 10.4 percent. About 125,000 new jobs are needed each month just to keep up with population growth and prevent the rate from rising."

...I still think that the current administration moves are a deterrent to hiring. In the salt mine, we've decided to cut staff this fall, and will reduce the number of employees. Costs to employers for each new employee are going up, and employers, whether Obama believes it or not, understand this.

In previous recessions, we've cut taxes. The idea was to stimulate the economy from the bottom up. This time we have tried to do it from the top down. Both ways increase the deficit. It appears that to me at least what had been tried and true should have been used. But in the end it is still all about 50 or so years of debt accumulation. And all methods of treating the huge debt load involve severe pain.

May we get out of this mess as soon as possible.....

McFearless said...

Are there any bears in the race?

Another good post CV.

qqqqtrader said...

Weekly Scorecard

Indices
S&P 500 1,064.88 -3.46%
DJIA 9,931.97 -3.19%
NASDAQ 2,219.17 -2.57%
Russell 2000 633.97 -5.45%
Wilshire 5000 11,008.18 -3.65%
Russell 1000 Growth 477.43 -2.68%
Russell 1000 Value 547.30 -4.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 656.06 -2.36%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 810.23 -6.51%
Morgan Stanley Technology 544.28 -2.41%
Transports 4,157.17 -5.13%
Utilities 354.27 -2.08%
MSCI Emerging Markets 37.81 -.98%
Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 960.63 +.22%
Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 850.80 +.32%
Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 896.78 +3.82%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +81,644 -2.87%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -256 -127
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 43.0 +7.50%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +24,875 -38.49%
CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,367,020 +1.56%
Total Put/Call .96 -8.57%
OEX Put/Call .91 +3.41%
ISE Sentiment 85.0 -16.67%
NYSE Arms 12.40 +3,657.58%
Volatility(VIX) 35.48 +19.54%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 14.87 +2.29%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,966.99 +1.30%
Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.840 Trillion -.3%
AAII % Bulls 37.09 +24.38%
AAII % Bears 40.85 -19.71%

Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 248.94 -3.41%
Crude Oil 71.51 -4.53%
Reformulated Gasoline 199.53 -2.44%
Natural Gas 4.81 +10.85%
Heating Oil 195.77 -2.88%
Gold 1,217.70 +.34%
Bloomberg Base Metals 181.18 -8.13%
Copper 281.95 -11.04%
US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 370.67 USD/Ton unch.
China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,285 Yuan/Ton -.56%
S&P GSCI Agriculture 283.46 -5.23%

Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 124.10 -1.19%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +8.20 -13.5 points
Fed Fund Futures imply 90.0% chance of no change, 10.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/23
US Dollar Index 88.23 +2.38%
Yield Curve 247.0 -5 basis points
10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.20% -9 basis points
Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.318 Trillion +.05%
U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.33 +17.19%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 150.67 +10.78%
10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98% -7 basis points
TED Spread 42.0 +4 basis points
N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 122.51 +3.31%
Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 164.98 +9.56%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 294.50 +5.97%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 334.0 unch.
M1 Money Supply $1.699 Trillion +.96%
Business Loans 605.60 -.38%
4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 459,000 +.4%
Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.6% unch.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.79% +1 basis point
Weekly Mortgage Applications 639.0 +.87%
ABC Consumer Confidence -44 +1 point
Weekly Retail Sales +2.70% -10 basis points
Nationwide Gas $2.73/gallon -.02/gallon
U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 33.0% above normal
Baltic Dry Index 3,844 -5.74%
Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 55.0 +15.79%
Rail Freight Carloads 225,111 +4.65%
Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 83.50 +.07%

Best Performing Style
Large-Cap Growth -2.68%

Worst Performing Style
Small-Cap Value -6.44%

Leading Sectors
HMOs +2.59%
Computer Services -.26%
Restaurants -1.12%
Foods -1.28%
Drugs -1.42%

Lagging Sectors
Banks -6.77%
REITs -7.36%
Networking -7.47%
Coal -9.17%
Oil Service -9.96%

karen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
karen said...

Very EXCITING, CV! Fly Down it is! (sorry about the shoes!)

karen said...

have just returned from two plus hour beach walk.. it is still overcast as you can see in this foto .. hoping for sun in about an hour..

Wes said...

...yesterday lefts, today breaking right

same beach?

did the swell change direction, or is it a beach break breaking both ways?

Andy T said...

Walter Zimmermann at ICAP sent out a pretty scary bulletin on Friday afternoon.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Basis the S&P 500, on a decisive break below the 1055.00 – 1050.00 zone there is the high risk of a collapse.

The risk to the downside from here is an acceleration lower.

We would not rule out that Monday 7th June could be a ‘Black Monday’ for the record books.

We repeat our advice that there is no technical justification for holding any length in the stock market

If you feel the need to buy something in equities, we suggest buying Puts.

Best Regards,
Walter J. Zimmermann Jr.
United ICAP

BinT said...

Thanks, Andy.

CV said...

Grrr...

Fly Down came in 2nd by a neck...

But... THIS IS TRUE I SWEAR (lol)...

At the window, CV hedged and instead of going $200 to win... Did $100 Win & $100 Place (no exotics)...

So I got paid $340 in the end...

Better than losing :-)

CV said...

HOWEVER...PEOPLE

Remember CV was calling for the winner of this race to have something to do with "Socioeconomics"?

Consider the following... The winner of the Belmont turned out tho be Drosselmeyer

A quick overview on "Drosselmeyer" (famous character from "The Nutcracker" - which was, co-incidentally, the last ballet CV attended last Christmas when the Moscow Ballet came to Baltimore)...

---
THE NUTCRACKER

Although several productions of the work greatly change the ending of the ballet, its basic plot very frequently remains the same. The work opens with a brief "Miniature Overture", which also opens the Suite derived from the ballet. The music sets the fairy mood by using upper registers of the orchestra exclusively. The curtain opens to reveal the Stahlbaums' house, where a Christmas Eve party is under way. Clara, her little brother Fritz, and their mother and father are celebrating with friends and family, when Clara's mysterious godfather, Herr Drosselmeyer, (affectionately known as "Uncle") enters. He quickly produces a large bag of gifts for all the children. All are very happy, except for Clara, who has yet to be presented a gift. The show foreshadows the fantasy events of the ballet, which will take place later on that night.

Herr Drosselmeyer has brought to the party three life-size dolls, which each take a turn to dance. When the dances are done, Clara approaches Herr Drosselmeyer asking for her gift. It would seem that he is out of presents, and Clara, in some productions, runs to her mother in a fit of tears and disappointment. In others, she is still quite happy; in Baryshnikov's production, she gently hints to Drosselmeyer that she would like a toy.

Drosselmeyer then produces a Nutcracker, in the traditional shape of a soldier in full parade uniform. The other children reject it, so he gives it to Clara. Clara is overjoyed, but her brother Fritz is jealous, and breaks the Nutcracker.

As the party ends, Tchaikovsky quotes the traditional German dance tune, the Grossvater Tanz[9] (Grandfather's Dance), and the Stahlbaum family go to bed. (In the Balanchine version, while everybody is sleeping, Herr Drosselmeyer repairs the Nutcracker, but in most productions, he simply binds it with a handkerchief during the Christmas party.)

...continued...

PS... Think of THAT story as the ECB most likely meets this weekend :-) (ostensibly to dispense with toys)

McFearless said...

damn CV, pretty close, I don't know anything about anything about horses but it seems you certainly do....sweet

McFearless said...

"If you feel the need to buy something in equities, we suggest buying Puts."

Nice.

Anonymous said...

NY Times has an article about shitpile of bad loans on European bank books. It's huge. $2.6 trillion.

http://global.nytimes.com/

"Debtor's Prism: Who Has Europe's Loans?"

"Frankfurt - Europe is trying to solve a $2.6 trillion mystery about which banks are holding all that debt from Greece, Portugal, and Spain(GPS)?"

-Significant portion of that mountain of debt may never be paid.

Limited disclouser and spotty accounting have been long voiced concerns of analysts who follow European banks.

-No disclouser from hundreds of smaller mortgage lenders, state-owned banks and thrifts.

-Deutsche bank holds 500 million euros of Greece govt.debt.

-France is largest holder of debt from GPS countries - 229 billion, followed by Germany(226 billion), British and Dutch bank( 100 billion each) etc.

Moral Hazard anyone?

My concern is, should their accountants be held responsible? Should stakeholders sue regulators?

Do G20 Finance Ministers and CBs even have moral credibility left?

BinT said...

G20 apparently told Geithner that they were about finished with stimulus. Debt was biting them in the arse. Good for them and their poor taxpaying citizens...

mcHAPPY said...

If you need a fundamental reason for the EUR/USD to bounce and the DXY to take a breather, the respective reactions to stimulus from European countries and Timmy this weekend may provide it.

Anonymous said...

http://indiaplay.blogspot.com/

Comedic (Bear) look at Indian stock market by some Indian dude.

Last thread is old -july 7, 2009.

Perhaps run over by an immortal bovine.

Privately Employed said...

From Zero Hedge this weekend:

"Total US debt today was $13.06 trillion. Total debt on March 6, 2009 was $10.95 trillion. The government has spent $2.1 trillion dollars to create a bear market rally which has now fizzled, and to fund a fiscal stimulus that is now dancing its death rattle. GDP will now gradually roll over, the unemployment rate will once again start increasing, diffusion indices, manufacturing and all other economic output will begin declining, but not before the bill is in. It cost Americans $2.1 trillion in debt to generate a 14 months sugar high (for which all will promptly receive a much higher tax bill). Luckily, we will never pay this debt off, so perhaps "the joke is on them" after all."

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben

I'm trying to remember you comments around and just after 'flash crash'.

Were you saying something about not thinking the flash crash ended something?

Please refresh my memory on that, if possible, thanks.

karen said...

Wes, those were two different breaks along same stretch of beach.. the first was an older shot of Cottons (which has a left and right).. this avatar is of Uppers (or Upper Trestles).. also a left and right.. anyway, it's been very peaky the last few days.. the big surf contests are held at Lower Trestles.. you can see the breaks on this map below.. I live above Cottons on that "Private Road."

http://www.surfline.com/surfdata/report_google.cfm?id=4738

CV! Congrats! That'll do!!

BinT said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704764404575286451653109876.html?mod=rss_opinion_main

Slouching Towards Athens

"The increasing size of the federal work force is an early indication of what lies ahead. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that in the last year the federal government added 86,000 permanent (non-Census) jobs to the rolls. And high-paying jobs at that: The number of federal salaries over $100,000 per year has increased by nearly 50% since the beginning of the recession.

Today, the average federal worker earns 77% more than the average private-sector worker, according to a USA Today analysis of data from the federal Office of Personnel Management. To pay for bigger government, the private sector will bear a heavier tax burden far into the future, suppressing the innovation and entrepreneurship that creates growth and real opportunity, not to mention the revenue that pays for everything else in the first place.

If these trends are not reversed, it is hard to see how our culture of free enterprise will not change. More and more Americans, especially younger Americans, will grow accustomed to a system in which the government pays better wages, offers the best job protection, allows the earliest retirement, and guarantees the most lavish pensions. Against such competition, more and more young, would-be entrepreneurs will inevitably choose the safety and comfort of government employment—and do so with all the drive that is generally thought to be "good enough" for that kind of work.

What will happen as our increasing number of state employees confront a shrinking private-sector tax base? Just look to the streets of Athens."

CV said...

@karen (11:59)

if my history serves me correct...

Didn't "TRESTLES" come right after "Santa Cruz"?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1FaflUn4Co

But BEFORE Redondo Beach?

DL said...

B in T @ 12:40

“Today, the average federal worker earns 77% more than the average private-sector worker, according to a USA Today analysis of data from the federal Office of Personnel Management”.

Totally meaningless statistic.

How about if we pay air traffic controllers, FAA employees, SEC employees, FBI agents, and NIH researchers the same amount that we pay landscapers? That would save money.

The better way to go would be to just fire half the Federal employees.

CV said...

@DL

"The better way to go would be to just fire half the Federal employees."

That would be fine with me...

But what stop at half?

Take it to a full 61.8% fib as far as cv is concerned...

CV said...

Starting with the POTUS, the Cabinet, and Congress...

CV said...

Federal "waste management consultants" could be retained for the time being...

CV said...

@DL

And I wasn't TOTALLY joking or being IRREVERENT there...

Consider your purported logic...

- SEC Employees (with their track record - especially recently - deserve to be paid BIG BUCKS?)... Answer me honestly

CV would counter that a "landscaper" (which is much of the type of work that CV performs - for his personal benefit - is work that is put to better use)...

When they decide to ban "short selling" (coming soon to a theatre near you)... Then answer...

In the mean time, let them enjoy their porn (on the taxpayers tab)...

DL said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
DL said...

CV,

O.K., 61.8%.

. . . . . . . . . .


As bad a job as the SEC and CFTC employees may be doing at their current salary, they would be that much worse if you cut their salaries by 50% (or so).

Another misconception out there is that Federal employees receive exorbitant pension benefits. They don't.

Anonymous said...

@DL,

"Another misconception out there is that Federal employees receive exorbitant pension benefits. They don't".

Compared to who? Factory/labour, private company workers?

Here in Canada, Fed. Govt. employees have very good benefit/pay packages.

By, Resident Alien

DL said...

Resident Alien

How about compared to government workers at the state level.

CV said...

@DL

"they would be that much worse if you cut their salaries by 50%"

Oh great... Let's follow that logic out further... Instead, let's DOUBLE their salaries (so as to "incentivize" them NOT to watch porn all day)... That ought to work!

OR

"Another misconception out there is that Federal employees receive exorbitant pension benefits. They don't."

DL... Are you PURPOSEFULLY attempting to be annoying as hell this afternoon? Normally I wouldn't bother, but there are thunderstorms rolling thru so I have a spare moment...

Let me take THAT argument a step further...

Now just think for a MOMENT... Just THINK... If NO HUMAN BEING on the planet were granted or guaranteed ANY type of pension or assistance for any of the work or toil that they'd worked hard to produce during their productive years...

It ought to "change" ones attitude no?

- Less BORROWING for things they didn't need, dererve, or could afford...

- Less corruption from entities scribed with the task of "inflating" so called SAVINGS to meet the new standard...

- More honesty and TRUE REWARD (overall)...

I guess that type of system might SUCK to you...

It'd be harder to trade E-Mini-s off of...

Wes said...

@Karen -

Awesome, I thought you were further north...

i've surfed Cotton's and Trestles, but, that was many, many moons ago.

I was recalling that Cotton's was a left break near the old Nixon complex...just a stroll south from San Clemente...

There were no houses between the SD freeway and the beach at Trestles way back when, I think we had to trespass Camp Pendelton to get there...

I guess it has changed - very cool beach at Trestles, dunes, and a great walk to the beach, lower, in particular...and it was a right break...

i ride goofy foot...so, i really liked Cotton's point, but the swell had to be pretty good size for it to come into it's own...sweet

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