A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
SPXSpinning top day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still kryptonite. Failed to retake 200 SMA (yay). Midpoint above 10 SMA. Still above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Still above the trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Currently not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYHanging man day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Make a move already. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXDoji day. Possible start of morning doji star pattern. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing only the painters can paint the tape. Still above the 14.6% retrace (failed) but fell below 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBearish long day (confirmed hanging man). Now below the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1176.10).
EURUSDInverted hammer day (DID NOT WANT TO GO LOWER). If low gets taken out then look out. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.2387.
JNKBearish long day (bearish engulfing?). Tested the 14.6% retrace (failed) and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSHanging man day. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 (failed). Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).
COPPERBearish long day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Closed below weekly 3LB reversal and monthly 3LB reversal. Tested 76.4% retrace (failed) and 85.4% retrace (passed). No daily 3LB changes.
39 comments:
McHappy made an interesting comment yesterday...
Since the most recent low, the (SPX)candles have gone:
RED-GREEN-RED-RED-GREEN-GREEN (tomorrow green?)
That would be 1-1-2-3 (next up 5 REDS - Starting next Monday?)
Monday would also be DAY 21 from "flash crash"...
Interesting Study on Flash Crash
The only worrysome thing about EURUSD is that now you have a Goldman analyst calling for 1.18...
Quick! Run the other way! (at full speed)
CV would rather listed to Ken Fisher tout stocks than Goldman analysts make currency calls...
But if you start from when we first closed under 1110 you have R-G-R-G-R-G-R-R-G-G. Broken up looks like R-G R-G R-G / R-R G-G ?-? So I see two more red days and then another pattern of three begins.
CV
I've been busy today with some family matters but I was wondering if you got that comment. Probably doesn't mean anything but..... if we have a big up day tomorrow I will strongly consider all in with a stop of 1173.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/03/250586/more-on-those-usd-swap-lines/
"Much of the sudden demand for dollar funding in international markets immediately after Lehmans’ failure appears to have resulted from the drawing of dollar funds by commercial banks in the USA from their related foreign offices."
bob
R-G-R-G-R-G-R-R-G-G: is it statistical illusion/fooled by randomness or something real?
@Amen/McHappy
While it's rare to get the tape you "hope"...
CV's favorite scenario would involve the following (which is basically the scenario I've been "twiddling my thumbs" on since I put on the HEDGE at 1040)... 1042 EXACTLY - as that was my fibo number (I don't fiddle with perfection)...
- A "green" day tomorrow that covers the GAP... Possibly brought about by various factors like intervention in the Euro, a "spun" jobs number, or HELL - basic tape painting... I don't really care, nor am I concerned with the logic or justification...
- I frankly would be happy as hell to go into the weekend with some POSITIVE vibes (therefore... HIGH VOLUME GREEN? - Bring it on!)... I want people feeling CONFIDENT AS HELL going into Monday...
- Push it to wherever you want... My current thesis is in the 1120's... But I'm not MARRIED to any particular number... I'll start shorting AT WILL...
uh, the fibonacci sequence is not an illusion, unless of course the entire universe is.....:0)
This is about all CV thinks anyone needs to know about FIB ratios...
https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/lmsims/www/China2004/SignsWonders_files/VitruvianMan.gif
Banana Ben says "you must lend NOW"........LOL.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHCJHOTC1yr0&pos=3
I sometimes wonder if Taleb has been fooled by himself given his awful trading record, further Elliott discovered fractals before Mandelbrot, but those guys won't give credit where it's due. Look at the drawings in RN Elliott's book and look at Mandelbrots, almost identical, but Elliott drew them decades earlier on his death bed.
I wonder if the next edict will be forcing people and businesses to borrow. Then it will be complete.
My wife and I have kept a lot of our credit powder dry. If Banana Ben really wants us to borrow, then we'll borrow if/when desperation time hits....
but I'm not saying anything about paying it back.
Seems like desperation time to me for old Benny. The old adage, you can give away free money to the banks but you can't make them lend seems to be holding true here. LOL.
Keep in mind that 1121 was the 50% retrace from 666 back to 1576...
For reference to that number... Keep in mind the following:
- In 2000, the SPX high was 1553... The '02 low was 769... 50% retrace was 1161 (which is where the market STOPPED DEAD IN ITS TRACKS in March '04 and took an entire year of fooling around and backtesting before finally breaking free in '05)...
- The market, ever so briefly (on NO VOLUME) pushed past that same level in March & April and quickly collapsed below (after visiting a near 61.8% retrace of 666-1576)...
Nah - FIB's don't really matter... Nor would it matter that 1124 would retrace 61.8% of WAVE 1 (from 1220 to 1040)...
Just a coincidence...
“Our collective challenge is to help ensure that creditworthy borrowers have access to credit so that, should they choose, they can expand their businesses or increase payrolls, helping our economy to recover"
Hmm....so the fed needs to expand credit...it is their "collective challenge", and unfortunately while they can influence borrowing and lending, they can't force it
BB makes my point for me in that line right there, these guys aren't in control...
@Manny
The only things the banks do anymore with the cash they get is "trade" with it...
It's just a big casino...
@McF
BB still thinks it's a LIQUIDITY problem...
It's the only thing that validates his PHD thesis...
When that is exposed to be INVALID, so goes everything he ever built his manhood on...
I doubt I'll ever get a PHD for teaching people how to do fucking jumping jacks!
C,
If not jumping jacks there is always storytelling.
I agree with you about the Wizard, the expert on the depression that still doesn't really understand what happened it seems.
Lakers-Celtics tonite! :-)
I think the first quarter of this game is going to say A LOT...
I want to see how physical LA wants to be in the paint...
It could be a warzone...
C, can't wait, I know Manny is ready too. Bynum is a key for the Lakers...we'll see if that knee can hold up.
@Ra
You notice on the shape taking form on the VIX chart? I'm seeing an A and B completed with a C underway. I think a push down to 24.91 is in the cards and with it a push up to 11??
As for the BB Bloomie article above..... what can we say? He was TIME's POY afterall.
CV,
If anyone is going to get the tape they "hope" it will be you, my friend.
I have not, nor will I ever, forget the little horse bet nor the EUR/USD call.
Ra,
have you taken a look at options at all on GS?
What's wrong with my stock opinions? Have I ever been wrong?
I'm ready, ben & cv! My dog might be hiding behind the chair soon (she gets a little freaked by my hollering at the TV like a lunatic).
I think there are MANY keys. Hard to nail down just one or a few, but here are mine:
Lakers - Artest - if he plays well, especially in D covering Pierce, they have a great shot.
Celtics - the Bench - if they play well throughout the series, I think the C's bring home numbah 18.
The Celts already dispatched Wade, Lebron, and Howard in that order, so why not Kobe and his team?
Celtics in a cruel 7 games winning the final game at Staples Center with a little 1969 deja vu for many long time Laker fans.
@cv: Agree with you about the banks though. Why lend when you can just buy treasuries, stocks and commodities? It's much easier than actually lending to an already overleveraged populace.
This is the buying opportunity of the decade. Be long or be wrong.
"The Celts already dispatched Wade, Lebron, and Howard in that order, so why not Kobe and his team?"
nice point there Manny, it would complete the set.
DL's earlier comment about the Fed creating inflation-
dude- the money supply is going down- M3 is going down- where is inflation going to come from-
BB's undershorts?
maybe if he drops trillions and trillions from a helicopter for the masses to spend on awesome Chinese made goods, restaurants and nail salons-
he'll get some inflation-
how likely is that?
Maybe the great "irony" is that "Helicopter Ben" didn't actually follow through....
If you actually dropped dollars from a helicopter onto the middle and lower class neighborhoods over and over again...you would actually create some inflation eventually.
Giving to the banks first was the mistake....
Ahab @ 8:31
At no point in the last 12 months have I argued that "inflation" was imminent.
Ben
Every now and then I take a look at GS options.
Good game tonight. I don't think the Celts are going to be able to physically over power the Lakers this go round.
Anyone see Chris Rock jawing towards Kobe? Anyone notice Kobe's reaction? Kobe does not feel cold steel.
Currnecy market madness pre NFP.
EURUSD new low. EURCHF falling of of a cliff. EURJPY below risk off line of 112.
Almost a Flash Crash in Currencies. Still, I think, quite possible that this reverses hard up.
Prashant
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