Morning Audibles 6.23.10 - Roll With The Changes

I'm not in a particularly grumpy mood... (Nor am I really a "grump" for that matter)...


Headlines sure have a way of making one that way (Unless you tune into CNBC, like, yesterday at 3PM when the caption read "DOW ON TRACK FOR BEST MONTH SINCE MARCH." - I kid you not)...


So I like to intersperse "cranium cracking numbnutted-ness" (which is fed into your skull daily by the MSM), with another sort of HEAD BANGING, or WAILING, or whatever you want to call it... 


It's a SURVIVAL instinct, after all... What more could you expect from SURVIVOR CAPITAL?... Especially when the WAILING contains the proper message...





REO SPEEDWAGON

As soon as you are able, woman I am willing
To make the break that we are on the brink of
My cup is on the table, my love is spilling
Waiting here for you to take and drink of

So if you're tired of the same old story,
Oh, turn some pages
I will be here when you are ready
To roll with the changes, yeah, yeah

I knew it had to happen, felt the tables turnin'
Got me through my darkest hour
I heard the thunder clappin', felt the desert burnin'
Until you poured on me like a sweet sunshower

So if you're tired of the same old story
Oh, turn some pages
I will be here when you are ready
To roll with the changes, ooooh

So if you're tired of the same old story
Oh baby, turn some pages
I will be here when you are ready
To roll with the changes, baby,
Roll with the changes,
Ah you know you know you know you got to

(Keep on rollin') Oh yeah
(Keep on rollin'), oooh roll with the changes
Keep on rollin' (keep on rollin' keep on rollin')
Oh now roll with the changes oh baby
(Keep on rollin') oh babe (keep on rollin')
Oh you got to learn to roll with the changes
Got to, got to, got to, got to keep on rollin'
Keep on rollin', got to learn to, got to learn to,
Got to learn to roll

Keep on rollin', keep on rollin', oooh
Keep on rollin', keep on rollin', oooh
Keep on rollin', keep on rollin', oooh
Keep on rollin', keep on rollin', oooh, aah

---

What do we have here? 7 trading days?, More? G-20 meetings?, "Ass kicking?", "General Resigning?", "WH Budget Director Escape?", "Rats Leaving Ships?", "4th of July?", "England-Slo/USA-Alg?

CV is reminded of the thought...


"A Soldier of the Legion lay dying in Algiers,
There was a lack of woman's nursing, there was dearth of woman's tears;
The dying soldier faltered, and he took that comrade's hand,
And he said, 'I nevermore shall see my own, my native land'."


Stephen Crane - "The Open Boat" (1897)

Don't be depressed... Just pick up a set of drumsticks, and just beat a tune out... You can get real good at it if you practice! :-)


262 comments:

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karen said...

bat, pls don't tax my memory! and you meant 08, i think..

okay, 35.56 (five cents off the low, i believe.)

72bat said...

commenter illyia at zerohedge cites this interesting take on how People are seriously underestimating how much liquidity in the global financial world is dependent on a solvent BP. BP extends credit – through trading and finance... It is likely to dwarf any banking entity in multiples

McFearless said...

McHappy,

Is five up the "best" count into tomorrow....I'm not so sure about that idea....we could have just as easily completed a c wave....but that'd just be better for bears :)

McFearless said...

McHap,

If you need help seeing that count, use this chart Kenneth has up:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/TCJPNOw7nII/AAAAAAAAF_Y/gepLB29UTcE/s1600/SPXTOS.png

McFearless said...

McHappy,
I also think some counts work that show we just completed a wave iv of of 1 of 3 (sorry, no degreez) like this:

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/7665/wave10623.png

McFearless said...

I man....gonna start calling you I mini....every tick counts on the mini's.

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben

Yeah those are good too.

What sites did you get the charts from?

I-Man said...

Indeed it does...

I-Man said...

I think I've found my market...

:)

Always loved my girl SPX, but her cousin ES, is my soul mate.

karen said...

i have to leave 10 min before the close.. what can possibly happen of import in the last 10 min??

McFearless said...

Kenny's/Dan's...one is from Ken, one is from maxcherry, who isn't even much of a wave guy but has ok counts sometimes.

someday I'll be able to put my own up here ....but for now can only offer some text.

McFearless said...

I,

if I had more time during the day to give trades attention I would only trade ES and nothing else, I'd keep my "retirement funds" all cash/govies.

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man,

SPX turns into a pumpkin at 4:00 P.M.

Not always convenient.

karen said...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- As House and Senate negotiators continue to work out differences in their versions of bank reform, a House proposal to have $3 billion used to help unemployed homeowners avoid foreclosure may prove to be a sticking point.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-eyes-fee-to-pay-for-3-bln-for-unemployed-2010-06-23

arbitrage789 said...

McF @ 3:08

If you've got at least $25K in the account, you don't have to be using much (effective) leverage.

McFearless said...

DL,

It's more the monitoring I'm worried about not the leverage....I don't use stops...almost ever, my phone rings all day and from 4-8 or 9 most days I'm in meetings.

i've been trading a lot of options lately, fortunately since my wife works with me she can help me keep an eye on them during the day if I'm tied up.

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

What is maxcherry? I've been googling but no site comes up. If you could give a site, I'd appreciate it.

I-Man said...

I'm going to catch hell for not putting a stop on that short off 1094.75...

But shit was going too fast... and sometimes, you just know.

arbitrage789 said...

McF,

The point is, if you've got $25K in the account, the result of holding an ES is going to be very similar to what you'd get holding SSO or QLD (if you were long). And ES is better for establishing a short position than any of the ETF's.

Depending on how much money one has in the account, an S&P future COULD be used like an ETF.

I-Man said...

Sometimes my judgement is most clear when I'm in the moment. If I have a stop out there, I start to doubt it.

I-Man said...

Especially if the stop is going to get in the way of a good trade.

I-Man said...

My new boss just referred to stops as a "necessary evil"... I think that makes alot of sense.

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man,

So what does your "new boss" require in terms of trading results?

(Just curious).

McFearless said...

Oh, DL, I see what you are saying now...totally agree as well.

McHappy,

sorry, that's not a site, just the handle of a poster over at Dan's site...he's had some great charts lately.

C,

I'm sure you've seen on Disqus there is a nice feature where you can put your charts right into your comment box....does blogger have anything like that?

McFearless said...

I,

I'm not against stops or anything....I have mental ones, lol, but I've found many times that stops trigger right when the trade is about to move my way...i've royally screwed myself several times getting stopped out at exactly the wrong moment.

if I was taking risk with someone elses money though like I do with my own...stops would be a must.

I-Man said...

DL, its on a case by case basis...

I didnt have any "results" to speak of, so I'm basically treated as if I'd never made a trade at all...

But if you have a track record, then its a different story.

If you want to learn more, hit me up at my dread email.

Nic said...

I felt the quake here, v weird, not what you expect in Canada.

McFearless said...

well, we can say for sure now that was no impulse around the Fed...the whole thing got retraced on S&P and NAZ.

I-Man said...

If 1086 goes... we be closing at 1077 I think...

mcHAPPY said...

Cool... Thanks, Ben.

I got turned off Daneric and, especially, the comment section months ago. Maybe time to go back.

McFearless said...

I,

On the mini's...do you see about 1072 as a big support level there?

Nic said...

Quebec is finally seperating! (earthquake)

McFearless said...

McHappy,
Dan does a lot of really bad counts, and sometimes some really good ones...ignore all his counts on individual stocks... he really shows his bias when he does those....getcha killed.

I read a few people at his site, I ignore most of them...same with kenny's...your mind starts spinning with 55 counts every day, or 61 counts anyway.

McFearless said...

shit, I didn't see your post up there about 1077...in the ballpark.

I-Man said...

McF,

Yep... and I see it being tested in the next few days...

CV said...

any mr. topstep video out today?

McFearless said...

As predicted a year ago by this dude named Robert:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/06/investors-fly-into-municipal-bonds-like.html

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

The least probable count I have is calling the truncated 5th. I believe that is what Dan is working off?

McFearless said...

it's Brian today:

http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv

McFearless said...

@McHap,

yeah I think he still is...saying that Wave 2 had topped the other day and we are going for wave 3 down now....he also kept running with that LDT which I thought made no sense nor can I find an example of where that occurs with a truncated fifth....but he provided about 10 posts worth of "evidence" on that.

I don't know....I think AT is right up there with EWI in counting and I think he's more objective...his corrective count looks the most logical because of the form thus far...it could turn into a five...but lets just take what we can get in the near term...his and EWI's point down...and after that moves is over we'll see what the deal really is.

McFearless said...

Oh, and the other thing that we talked about with that pattern of his, if we want to keep in mind is what we were discussing from EWP:

page 135 of the 10th edition:

"A leading diagonal in the wave 1 position is typically followed by a zig zag retracement of 78.6%"


doesn't have to be that way of course...it's just what is "typical"

McFearless said...

that Brian guy is an awful speaker for those videos....he cracks me up.

McFearless said...

maybe the options pits are wrong but lots of upside bets on the VIX through sept on that report....

I-Man said...

Flat.

Exhausted...

CV said...

@McF

That's kind of normal if you ask me...

McFearless said...

thoughts on gold?

McFearless said...

What CV, vix?

CV said...

@McF

Yeah VIX... I'd think...

With all the uncertainty out there, and the VIX just hit down in the 22's again as SPX was completing its up wave...

VIX is about to reverse on the monthly 3lb as well...

I'd be very bullish on VIX thru Sept...

CV said...

Gotta go...

see y'all later...

AmenRa said...

CV

The VIX reversed higher in May. Now I'm looking for confirmation (monthly close above 32.07).

McFearless said...

did you all notice the Fed statement says housing starts remain at a depressed level....clowns...last one they said housing starts are edging up.

why oh why for the life of me I will never understand why so many people think they can control and dictate so much.....

Nic said...

Greek 10-year government bond yields are above 10% (10.364%). These are not sustainable levels for financing and EU loans won't last forever

Leftback said...

I am glad I missed all that lot today, went flat in front of the FED.

Germany scraped through after what was almost an amazing comeback by the Aussies. If I was the US I wouldn't be afraid of Ghana and then it is Uruguay/South Korea. With the commitment they showed this morning they can take on Ghana with confidence. For England, the old adversaries are ahead: Germany first.

mcHAPPY said...

@Nic

That tennis match at Wimbledon is insane. At this point, who cares who wins... neither will be able to move tomorrow!

Leftback said...

This German team are missing Ballack a lot, and for those who don't follow futbol closely, can be best understood as being like a smoking hot babe in a bikini - we could use Karen as an example - on the beach:

SPECTACULAR and DANGEROUS up front.
FIRM and with a GOOD SHAPE at the back, and then
LITTLE to NO COVERAGE in the middle.

Leftback said...

Greek bonds are going to be as viable as their football team......

I-Man said...

I'm having a tough time grasping this yuan issue...

From todays article in the FT, pg 21

"But while most observers have focused on the prospect of capital inflows INTO china, some analysts are more concerned about the risks being stacked in the opposite direction.
A global double dip or an unexpected slowdown in China, could prompt Beijing to depreciate the renminbi.
That would trigger severe outflows... such sudden outflows would be more problematic."


I'm having a hard time grasping that last part, can someone help me on my macro... LB? Ben?


Their objective is to let the yuan appreciate, but if it goes nutso, that puts upward pressure on the dollar, and is good for USD assets, like govies...

Wouldnt china want that?

I-Man said...

Or is it a problem of inflation that they are worried about? I really could have benefited from some basic econ classes in school...

Too busy with other 'extracurricular" things...

Leftback said...

I-

If you own Chinese stocks and the RMB depreciates then you lose money, and that's what triggers capital repatriation from dodgy emerging markets in times of market stress. Think Latin America in past recessions.

China is in a bind. They own our govvies, so strong dollar good for their assets, but bad for US consumer demand for plastic thingys.

I-Man said...

Got it... I was thinking more about fx flows, and not enough about the equity part.

Thanks Lefty!

I-Man said...

I-Man is off to hit the neighborhood pool with the wife and pickney.

One love I-verybody~

McFearless said...

just wrapped a mtg...I'm with lefty, think it's about the equity...and yes, a real catch 22 for them, hence all the recent talk about how to stimulate internal consumption, which unfortunately was done via credit expansion.

One thing is for sure...govt's should stop trying to "make" their currencies do things....doesn't always happen right away...but those actions just don't end well.

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