A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
I dream of hitting the wall of the creditcane.
SPXBearish long day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is anxiously waiting for retest (and got it). Back below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint now below EMA(10). Back below the trendline using 2010 lows but above the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (barely). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 1117.51). Again confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYDoji day. Thinking about down move. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) held (91.80 is next). Back below the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.40).
VIXBullish long day. Back above weekly 3LB mid (aka bullish bias). Midpoint back above 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (yet).
GOLDSpinning top day. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 1258.30).
EURUSDDoji day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed yet again). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1936).
JNKBearish short day. Tested the 38.2% retrace (failed). Back below the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10) - barely. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSSpinning top day (again). Bulls looking weak. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).
10YR YIELDBullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested 0.0% retrace (passed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 33.79). Can you say 2.0%?
XRTBearish long day. Consumers are enjoying staycations. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.92).
54 comments:
XRT says...
Pass the remote please... I want to watch to watch my recording of "Downfall"...
JNK says...
It's not too late to sell me & pay a nominal capital gains tax...
EURUSD says...
"Can they postpone this G-20 meeting for a few more months so that my "Wil E Coyote" over the cliff moment can be put into SUPER DUPER slo mo?
EURUSD says...
PLEASE... PLEASE... Goldman Sachs... Re-iterate your SUPER DOUBLE SECRET "sell" rating on me (so I can charge to 1.35)....
Beep Beep!
@Nic
That Sienna commercial/video was priceless. new found respect for those commercials now - lol.
As for markets today, I'm not quite sure what to think. S&P broke through the days lows but there was very little follow through. There is no doubt 1072 is significant resistance.
As Ben mentioned, EWI were calling for 1077-1071 with possibility of lower. Their alt count was ruled out today (wave 1 ended yesterday lows).
Working off 1131.23-1085.31 as wave 1 (it is not but lets say it was), wave 2 should have hit at least 1102. We only hit 1099.64. I'm noticing during possible wave 2 conclusions we are always just missing that .382 retracment to go down hard, then head up to a higher retracement high - basically messing with both bulls and bears.
Today would have been the end of wave 1 of minor 3. I'm not sure if we had a bottom at 1074.63 or 1071.60. We could be in an expanded flat ABC where B is lower than A. With all the discussions on fractals (interesting stuff BTW), this would be sort of simlar to what the NAZ and RUT did from May 25-June 21.
I am leaning towards a face ripper tomorrow UP after a possible lower start to atleast 1096/1097 (.382) but more likely 1103/1104(.5 retracement).
I do not think there has been enough of a retrace for there to have been a proper end to the first wave down before 1074/1071.
As we all should know by now, wave 2's are nucking futs to figure out.
mcHAPPY
It's all about GDP (bs I know) tomorrow.
Odd how the SPX held the trendline from 3/6/09-5/25/10 ;-)
G** I get sick of this shit every so often...
ESPECIALLY when it comes to "pretenders"
CV
I'm trying to figure what time tonight will they give up supporting futures and head for the exit.
For you NON BIBLICAL scholars out there...
Understand that we're at a point that it would require a BIBLICAL effort (at this point)... to SAVE your finances from ARMAGEDDON...
That's CV's clarion of HOPE (that you "voted for" in 2008)... FOR "OPTIMISM" sake..
Now...
Go ahead and call me a JERK...
I can take it... (You're right - You'll ALWAYS be right)... WHY? Because I'm a JERK! That's why!
@CV, You high on hopium? NOT!
What happens when J6P opens his/her 401k statement and see $100 left? Especially after 30 years at a job they probably can't stand.
@Amen
can't be easy...
J6P told me this... (but CV is just a LIAR - I kno)
I'm completely pumped for this weekend's matches in the World Cup.
I think Germany has made it to 10 of 14 World Cup quarterfinals in the last 14. That history alone suggests they'll take the English side. But, man, I followed a lot of those English players this season and would really like to seem them beat the Germans.
There is a classic irony to the US taking on Ghana in the last 16. Scrappy and resilient team is Ghana, but you gotta love the US chance there. My bet is US comes out flat after the last game, but comes up big in the second half.
The S&P...well.....we said it was "horriblus maximus." That stated, the recent decline is NOT impulsive in nature. My bet is we grind a bit more before the big tumble. Seeems like 1103 on the futures will be a "cap."
CV isn't SMART... smart like...
- like CRAMER
- or LAZLO BIRYNI
- or Stiglitz
- or Ritholtz
- or Bernanke
- or (God forbid) OBAMA (the ALL TIME GENIUS)
- or Fisher
- or Bernanke
- or Summers
- or Geithner
- or Trichet
God knows I'm EVEN DUMBER THAN the COLLECTIVE IQ's of ALL THEIR FLUNKIES...
Difference?
I got NOTHING TO LOSE...
That makes me a VERY DANGEROUS MF...
@Amen: Things are percolating at a lot of companies these days. My wife showed me a three page email screed today from someone at her company who sent it the CEO. Scathing would be an understatement.
CV, you are reminding me of Bruce Willis in those Die Hard movies, laughing.. what are you drinking tonight? Unfortunately or not, I'm sober. My sons helped me drink a single bottle of Pinot during dinner and I'm too tired to open another.. I am going to take a second bottle of pelegrino to bed with me tho, shortly.
AR, i just checked futures.. that's not real, right? Thanks for the wrap, btw.. we will dream together tonight!
@karen
Whether or not you like it...
My last post was from the >3
oh, just tell what you are drinking!!! hmm, what is >3 supposed to depict?! LOL
Karen
I still haven't ben able to find what caused the futures to jump. AH shenanigans.
@karen
I'm COMPLETELY sober enuf to banter about MARKETS enuf (for the next several hours)...
... at your disposal (even EAST COAST TIME)...
THIS IS A VERY PASSIONATE MOMENT FOR ME... I think Amen is ON BOARD with that...
The rest?
If they want to sleep" THAT'S THEIR ISSUE...
To CV?...
This is where money is MADE & LOST...
Buon appetito to the rest!
@Amen
NOT jumping... (AH)...
Just "probing"... Stay with me bro... Here tonite...
I'll at least give you a view of what I see..
@karen
sorry...
means <3
ALL of the Asia markets are down yet US futures are higher.
@Amen
I'd give it 50-50, at this point, that we FLASH CRASH tomorrow...
The FRACTAL is IDENTICAL to May 5th...
The ONLY way we DON'T, will be VIA some INTERVENTION...
Understand... This is WEIRD for me to call AHEAD of a G-20 meeting (which is the ONLY thing that might stand in the way)...
It's TRICKY
CV
The futures are treading water in the middle of the ocean. Unfortunately they're bleeding and a family of sharks are nearby...
Wait...
It's TRICKY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kv8J8QHwmaI
AR, i'm seeing futures down 1% basically.. what am i missing?
oh, CV, that was headache material.
copper seems to be having a 2% turnaround, however.
Karen
Futures
DJ +31
SP +2.1
ES +2
NAS +2
Honestly this move is weak to me. But I know how they like to ramp futures at 3am.
AR, i am using this link: http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
CV
I haven't heard that in ages. Back in the break dancing days. That reminded me of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fGHjBwc7x0
@karen
CV seriously doubts that anything INDICATIVE will occur overnight...
BUT...
Look at the May 5th/May 6th FRACTAL... (in the other thread)...
versus...
TODAYS (yesterdays)/ tomorrows candles...
If that doesn't give one PAUSE... I don't know...
After tomorrow... If the tape paints differently, I'll change my tune... BUT FOR NOW...
I'd be careful..
Just saying...
(Disclosure: NOT ABUNDANTLY "short" - But ZERO longs)...
@Amen
Just to let you know...
KRAFTWERK worked "excellent" on BREAKBEATS back in the day...
CV knows because he was a CLUB DJ - Whiskey a Go Go, Rainbow, & Roxy in that day...
But NOBODY rocked the house like RUN DMC...
CV
Shhh! I'm going to say this only once...I'm a house head. I still DJ every now and then. I have an insane amount of records.
Karen
I also go here for quotes: http://www.quote.com/us/futures/indices.action
A weekly close below 3.195 and the 10yr yield will be trending down.
Damn... Despite the potential "VOLATILE" precipice the markets seem to be perched on... OVERNIGHT...
I can see that tomorrow morning I'm going to have to give you all a splash of AQUA VELVA...
In Italiano:
Peggio per vuoi! Tutti sieti SUONABULISTI!... MANAGA!... Spero che AL MENO non si perdi molto soldi domani!...
Ma probabilmente non si e possibile, si come tuttu di vuoi siete abbastanza PIGRE...
Beh! Buon FINE DI SETTIMANA!
Another "Tricky":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sy7U6AZ9gwU
>> JNK says...
>> It's not too late to sell me & pay a nominal capital gains tax...
But, think of the *yield*. ;-)
G'nite, all. (Posting & running..)
CV
I used translate.google.com (figures they would have one) Got the gist of it. And...and...I know what you're talking about but I'll leave it alone.
He'll be next in line for food stamps: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-half-says-little-about-second-half-2010-06-25
Is past prologue?
Commentary: A dismal first half isn't always followed by a bad second half
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Is the past prologue?
We had better hope not, since the stock market over the first half of 2010 has been a disappointing performer -- falling far short of its long-term average pace of around 10% a year.
Following Thursday's decline of 146 points, for example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now down 2.6% for the year to date -- with just four more trading sessions left in 2010's first half. If the second half of the year is just as poor for the stock market, the full year will sport a loss of more than 5%.
Fortunately, a disappointing first half does not automatically doom the second half of the year.
A clue to this comes from just anecdotal evidence. Take 2009, for example, when the market lost ground for the first six months. Yet the second half of the year witnessed one of the strongest rallies in recent memory.
To be sure, poor first halves have not always been followed by such pleasing reversals. There have been plenty of other years in which poor first halves were followed by poor second halves as well.
But the historical record shows there is a largely random relationship between the market's performance in the first and second halves of each year.
CV
We're going to test 1064, recover and test it again. The second or third test will be final and we head to 1041. That's what I see for tomorrow.
I talked about huge volume on XLF put (JUL and AUG at the money) in last thread.
Now here is rumor on who is the seller:
"Well I found out who has been selling the XLF puts.
Tudor Asset Management is what I was told.
Can't verify, but I trust the individual who told me."
The SPX will be higher next Friday than it will be end of tomorrow.
How long since you slept CV, take it easy man
Bertie
CV
On your list of reeeeeeaaaaaaally smart people you forgot the guy that invented the internet. Just saying (actually I am laughing really hard).
I am flat right now, markets too scary. It could be a face ripper or a total colllapse so I am watching to see
you have got to be kidding me: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-gdp-data-may-be-delayed-due-fire-commerce-department
US GDP Data May Be Delayed Due To Fire At Commerce Department
And now for the envelope... oops, it just burned down. Oh well. First no budget, now, no GDP. According to unsubstantiaed rumors, the fire is headed to the records room at the US Treasury next. Unfortunately for our creditors, there will soon be no paper record we owe money to anyone. And like that, our $13.1 trillion in debt, it's gone.
KB Homes reported a loss of 40 cents a share.
Gold back above 1250.
1Q GDP is 2.7% aka revised lower.
I actually like gold short here from 1250. 61.8fib retracement and gartley fib pattern
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