A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
How do we keep avoiding the wall?
SPXSpinning top day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is anxiously waiting for retest. Still above the SMA(21) but now below the SMA(233). Midpoint now below EMA(10). Still above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1091.60). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day (profit taking?). Down move is done. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) held (91.80 is next). Back below the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.40).
VIXDoji day. Start of evening star or pause before exploding higher? Midpoint below 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps (still holds true)." Still above the SMA(55) and above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (yet).
GOLDSpinning top day (bulls holding strong for now). Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). New low on daily 3LB (reversal still 1258.30).
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed again). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1936).
JNKBearish short day. Lower shadows are getting longer. Tested the 38.2% retrace (passed). Still above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSSpinning top day. Resembles bullish thrusting. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint back below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95). One step forward and two steps back.
WTIBearish long day. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the weekly 3LB mid at 77.58 (failed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.48).
XHBBullish harami day (but first day is too small IMO). Below all SMA's. Still below 38.2% retrace. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.59).
67 comments:
What a FANTASTIC Day.
Every trader I know was watching that game. Unreal finish.
The beautiful thing about the whole score was that it was America's best players all touching the ball to score it. Beautiful, indeed.
Hat tip to England. The Defoe goal looked great as well. Maybe England's pulling it together a bit.
I'm happy as hell we're not facing Germany.
@ Ra
Thx for the wrapper my brother. Love the 3LB for my mental strat.
@ AT
The I didnt watch the game... have it recorded for tonight, whereupon I'll crack my first pint since last friday!
Landon aint my fav, but I'm looking fwd to seeing it later...
Andy, I was delighted for Donovan and the US team, for giving 110% for 95 minutes.
FWIW, neither Ghana nor Germany are that frightening. The loss of Ballack and Essien has left both teams a little unbalanced - both teams walked in through the middle in today's game with alarming ease.
Thanks Ra
This video says it is raining oil in Louisiana.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hY-tIEqzcmU
I am more and more convinced that the entire effing oil reservoir under this well is going to leak out in toto. This is what you get for working at the edge of the technology without a decent safety net.
If you google "carcinogens" and "hydrocarbons" you will save yourself from getting a biology degree, and then you won't need to listen to the reassurance from BP and the government that it's all OK.
BTW, the TBTF banks are solvent too, Canada doesn't have a housing bubble, nor does Australia or China, and Goldman Sachs is a very nice company that has your best interests at heart.
Nic,
5:54...oh fantastic...and how do we quantify the damage of that....disaster...this thing is so depressing.
Not sure if that is really rain in the true sense, but wind-borne micelles and particulates can be carried far inland.
The Gulf States are going to become the Forbidden Zone. Enter at your own risk.
it could have just been oil on the road too I guess, either way, this thing blows...
We can sue BP. If the price of shrimp and oysters go up I will see them in small claims court :) (not)
I agree with LB, I am not convinced. For all we know a car leaked oil on the street and when it rains that happens. The science behind how it would be in the rain is dodgy, IMO
...just some motor oil that was already on the road when the rain shower came...
I think all the BP execs should be taken out and shot and all assets of the company forfeited and given to the Obama admin to dole out as necessary-
I am pretty upset that they were licensed to drill for what everyone desperately wants-
cheap fuel-
bastards
@wes
It's not even motor oil... (likely)
Tires leave oil on the pavement from regular wear and driving...
Ever lived in Los Angeles?... it doesn't rain for 6 months, then the first rain that comes it's slicker than s*** on the roads...
My @ss could tell you because I've set down my motorcycle on slick roads like that on many occasions...
@cv - ...all of the euro pros know...were talking serious road rash here...not so much down here though...
Don't get me wrong, I think the gulf is an unmitigated disaster.
I am just not convinced its in the rain.
Ahab
How do you feel about everyone else being allowed to continue to drill in deep water?
I think there has to be an overhaul and proper investigation first. The MMS that signed off on BP's stuff were the same ones signing off on the other rigs and there is never just one cockroach.
ahab@7:25-
...you are not being sarcastic, are you ;-)?
...in any case, bp tried to get it as "cheap" as possible, that is one thing that is for sure...
...and the people and industries/businesses do want it as cheap as possible as well...
...low probability, high consequence event...a black swan, a fat tail...you know different business, same language...
and a follow up to my last comment-
this country is awash with hypocrites-
BP = bad-
and we're aghast at its terrible affront to nature and human lives-
while we all continue on with our fuel and oil wasting ways-
that is where the gas tax comes in- make that fuel dear- make people use it sparingly-
use the tax to develop other fuels, other modes of transportation-
different communities and ways of living will result
any earthquake experts here?
is it normal for tremors from an earthquake like this to be felt as far as New Jersey?
Wes-
the way I see it- someone gave them the authority to drill-
for something this country wants every single second of every single day- cheap oil
all this nonsense about energy independence is exactly that- nonsense-
we've been talking that talk for 40 years- all platitudes
global unity....and energy independence
lol
@ahab
My next ROCK BAND, I'm going to name...
"The Plati-DUDES" :-)
Mel can be the drummer... (since neither I-Man OR McF gave me any kudos for my REO Speedwagon thread)...
test?
ahab-
...i hear ya' man...total freakin' nonsense,
...and, in the reasonably near future, impossible!
...the USG via the MMS leased the rights to drill for oil to bp on a 3 mile by 3 mile patch of ocean and seafloor...no doubt about it...
and, the MMS was regulating them and approving their well designs, no less!
..to extend my prior analogy, can you say MMS=SEC, or is it more like MMS=Moody's, Fitch, S&P?
Wes-
exactly my point-
BP was allowed to drill-
it can't all be about BP-
maybe now the thought is- it's dangerous to drill down that far-
but I guess it took a disaster to really question the viability of it-
all's I know- if we ship it in from the middle east-
my beaches are clean- beautiful sunrises and sunsets- and beautiful views-
that way I'm oblivious
CV-
the platiDudes-
sounds cool as long as you are singing songs that have no meaning but make people feel good-
you have to live up to the name(-:!!!!
Love Love me Do
You Know I Love You
I'll always be true
So pleeeeeeeeese... Love me Do...
---
HOW IS THAT FOR A START
CV-
crack me up- excellent point!!!! I guess the name is a winner(-:!!!!
b22 @ 8:00-
dude- it's just survival-
who knows how shit turns out- but- a wise country thinks ahead-
if you make gasoline expensive- then the country figures other ways- or is less dependent on foreign sources-
tax is a disincentive-
tell me a better way
ahab,
I've got no problem with a gasoline tax
I was simply making the point there that many of these political catch phrases are a silly contradiction.
Tax me on my molotov cocktails?
NO WAY!
c,
oh man I did think about saying something about it this morning, I have an REO greatest album that I rock out to every once in a while...mainly when I'm wearing a jean jacket.
..cv...you are so blue
...not talkin' politico here, just mood, social mood...
...freakin' molotov cocktails! damm...you bad
HAHAHA: Ridiculed By Americans Everywhere, Krugman Now Threatens, Gives Unsolicited Advice To Germany, Pisses Entire Nation Off
cv- that luv, luv me do, comment,
..is absolutely excellent...
i am not a pop culture expert dude like you, but, that was an excellent reference, my man...
...great stuff, Ra-
ZH...blasting Krugman and Keynsianism...
no surprise, but, i read this stuff over the weekend, and, hmmmmmm..........he has gone beyond credibility...
@Amen
I know right?
I nominate that as THREAD OF THE YEAR! (thus far)...
LMAO
My first inclination was to do a Hugh Hendry vs. Krugman thread tomorrow...
McF we had an aftershock, and yes you could have felt it.
...Krugman is toast...no credibility left, whatsoever...asshat
Krugman-
what a douche bag-
unfortunately- the whole USG is buying into the Keynesian nonsense-
thankfully other counties are stepping away
...Keynes was/is a fraud...he justified Gov policies with bs...in the end we are all dead - asshat number 1
Wes
The problem is that the government left off the other part of Keynes solution. They are supposed to pay down debt in good times instead of spending more.
Beard #2
an assistant VP of the GIB
...Ra, yes, he said that...agreed, but, it never played out that way because of the insatiable desire of the masses exploited by the politicos, as, i am sure, you well know...good times or bad...greed is good...theory does not always work in practice...
...got it b22 - took sec or two, but... he, he, he...
Great theory always works great...
In theory...
- Augusta has it's "green jacket"
- Michigan/Minnesota has its "little brown jug"
Nobel ought to change the trophy from "gold medal" to "asshat"
I thought it was a gold jacket ?
anyway- out for the evening-
all have a good night
@ahab
Gold Jacket is effin Century 21 real estate... lol
They might as well get "asshats" too...
While we're doling them out...
...here is my post from...TUESDAY, MAY 11, 2010
bp
I was getting pretty worked up over the past weekend about the attitude and corporate cultural behavior exhibited by bp. Nothing new, I've witnessed it many times in the past, but to see this behavior as being so ingrained, so culturally pervasive still coming to the forefront, still being the driver of decisions both in the forefront and in the background of the events that have played out since April 20th 2010, had me in a fit of outrage.
My intention was to post about this topic on Sunday, but after two hard days on the bike, I was a bit low on energy, so to speak. And, indeed the European bank bailout started drawing my short-term attention away from the blowout over the weekend. Now that the congressional hearings are scheduled for today, whereby you will witness first hand, from the mouths of the company leaders exactly what I am going to describe in the following few snippets.
It is all an incremental financial calculation, everything that bp does. It is in their culture. It is not about beyond petroleum, it is not about safety, it in not about the environment. The business of business is to make money, that goes without saying, but at what level of risk? What level of supervision and oversight? Ring fencing the blame and finger pointing is about to be displayed in all its gory detail on your television screens in front of some congressional panel today.
First, let's be clear - the bottom line - this is bp's responsibility, full stop.
bp leased acreage from the USG in deepwater with the intention to make money. No one put them up to this. It is their business. So, when it all goes horribly wrong, how can this all of a sudden be a blame game? If it was not for bp leasing this acreage and drilling a hole into this reservoir, none of this would have happened. There is only one ultimately responsible entity and that is bp.
Hayward heard about the blowout at breakfast in London on April 21, about four hours after it began. He said his first reaction was “unprintable.” For the first few days, he kept a low profile. BP judged that Transocean, the owner of the drill rig, should take the lead. Later Hayward deferred to U.S. government agencies such as the Coast Guard.
In early May, BP changed strategies and put Hayward in front of the cameras. The company hired Marine Spill Response to deploy four 210-foot oil-skimming ships and two planes to spray dispersants on the oil. As the crisis mounted, Hayward tried everything at once.
The first comment I heard from Hayward was something to the effect that bp takes responsibility for the oil spill, but it was Transocean's equipment that failed. Well, Transocean says that it was the Cameron BOP that did not work when needed - the last line of defense. Cameron says, it worked when we delivered the BOP to Transocean in 2001, has Transocean modified it without our approval? Or was it Halliburton's "fault" they were contracted to do the casing cementing job that may have failed.
bp designed the well construction plan. bp's company man was onboard directing and approving every critical step of the well construction operations.
bp can try to shed blame to their contractors and subcontractors, but the bottom line, as we all know in this industry, is that the operator is the essential link in the HSE chain and clearly that chain was broken.
...and the rest of the story...
_______________
You can't make this stuff up....A special visit by bp officials to the Deepwater Horizon was underway with a celebration literally taking place at the time of the blowout. The celebration - 7 years of safe operations.
________________
And here is a truly harrowing tale -
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/08/us/08rig.html?pagewanted=1&ref=todayspaper
So these rig hands who survived an unbelievable nightmare, taking a long boat ride to shore and are immediately forced to sign waivers, and all kind of rights away including not to talk to anyone about what happened. Incredible.
________________________________
bp - Texas City Refinery, Alaska oil pipeline leak due to ignored maintenance, Macondo well blowout...
...and if that is not enough, check this out -
http://www.truthout.org/slick-operator-the-bp-ive-known-too-well59178
Apparently, Oil Spill Recovery systems work on the same principal as the fractional reserve banking system - it ain't there when you really need it...
Complicit in the Valdez spill? Perhaps, not so directly, but the following article sheds light on the bp culture.
__________________________________________
On the hesitance of bp's Tony Hayward to swing into action since it was "not our equipment" - asshat.
In terms of the 52 yo's tenure at the top of bp, yeah right - Hayward is toast.
Interesting question and answer on the Neowave (Neely) site today. He revealed his much longer wave count on Gold and rationale behind the count if you follow it through. [First time I've seen it.]
I don't believe the count for reasons I could cite from his own work on EW, but it's his count....so...I guess we need to give it consideration.
-AT
http://www.neowave.com/qow.asp
As an aside note on Glenn Neely, I found out this dude is taking a two week vacation for the first time in decades, because it's his 50th B-Day.
Couple of thoughts crossed my mind when I read this:
a) WTF? I'm not sure I want take advice from someone who hasn't had a real vacation in decades.
b) WTF? Neely wrote Mastering Elliott Wave in his late 20's....that's NUTS. That book is "sick" to have been written by someone in their 20s.
-AT
does it make sense that the wave ii would be a few years while iv was 20 years?
McFear: Exactamundo.
That's my issue with that count....
Also, the E-wave of his "four" lasted way longer than any other wave....that's not supposed to happen.
He probably has some explanation for that, but it would be a lively discussion be me and Neely. :-)
-AT
Andy,
Prechter has a similar story, didn't take a day off for something like 34 years...said he was too worried he would miss something important in the wave count, 29 when he co-wrote EWP.
figures....
Also, seeing as tho' Karen approved, I'm passing on this fairly intense cover of a not so intense song:
Pursuit of Happiness
Love the way she goes "Joe Cocker" at the end....
-AT
Yeah. I definitely understand "passion," especially when it comes to money and trading...I took vacations but always knew what my book and the market was doing when away, so never really a vacation. [Sidenote: Whenever CNBC tells you that the market is acting stupid because the big traders are on vacation and the juniors are in charge....that's all BULLSHIT. Senior traders always know what's going on.]
That said...some of these guys are 'driven.' I consider Prechter a genius. Don't always agree with his counts, but that dude is really enlightened.
...hands on the wheel, fuck that...
good evening! you all are riled up as always.. i was at first taken aback by Andy's enthusiastic "What a FANTASTIC day." until i realized he was all about futbol! (I didn't see any of it, btw; no tv.) Anyway, i have enuf of my own stuff going on here to be riled about..
it is almost incomprehensible that this deep water well is completely uncontained and getting worse.. eroding the opening so far down. the gulf may become a black sea.. when all the while our fear has been of a nuclear or viral event.. another black swan.
karen.
Agreed on the oil spill. My tendency is to 'fade' such developments and headlines, but the whole situation is really messed up.
The old adage comes to mind: "It's ok to panic...as long as you panic early."
Any one notice the bassist in Andy's music link is also playing drums? That is incredible.
oh, hey, Andy.. yes! i loved that clip! i'm going to watch it again..
wow, here she is only a couple of years ago.. tough business.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zPYQ0u2t2E
NEW THREAD
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