A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
We brushed up against the wall of the creditcane today. Is the ship about to flip?
SPXBearish short day. Closed below the three dojis. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is anxiously waiting for retest. Still above the 21 SMA and above the 233 SMA. Midpoint now above 10EMA. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1091.60). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish engulfing day (even enclosed the shadows from the previous day). Down move is probably done. Midpoint below 10EMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is still holding (91.80 is next). Back above the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal still 88.23).
VIXBullish engulfing day (same as DXY). Midpoint below 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps (still holds true)." Below the 55 SMA and back above the monthly 3LB mid. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is now 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (yet).
GOLDBearish engulfing day. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is now 1258.30).
EURUSDBearish short day. Indecision decided. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Back below the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1936).
JNKBearish short day. Did not test the 50.0% retrace. Still above the 233 SMA. Failed to retake the 144 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish long day. Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint now above the 10EMA (not for long). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).
BPSpinning top day. Still trapped by candle body from the long down day on 6/9/10. Still below the 0.0% retrace. Still below the 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.86). Time to buy? Yeah right.
GOOGBearish long day. Tested the 23.6% retrace (failed miserably). Back below the 21 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 472.05).
29 comments:
How much money was stolen today by greedy algo-creators.
CASINO!
Algo says...
"mmmm... sausage..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5kewcC7uaw
We may have seen the highest highs we'll see on the S&P....today's move higher seemed like a gift of sorts.
Spain looked better today. That team is so loaded between Xavi, Torres, Fabregas.....
@Andy
Torres still looks a little rusty to me... I think he missed on two great chances...
Xavi & Fabregas are great players, but they still seem kind of out of sorts in the shifted roles...
Who STEPPED UP today were Villa, Pique, & Ramos...
But... that said... if this team is rounding to form (after being out of sorts vs. the Swiss), then they still could go deep...
I like Argentina so far, but Spain was much improved here...
@Andy (7:59)
What I'm thinking is that these silly little "tape painting" jobs might turn out to be quite profitable during P3...
Let them PAINT THE TAPE for the last 10 minutes of every day and then buy e-Mini puts right at the close...
CV
Yeah that little move at the end felt desperate.
EURCHF 1.3658 and falling. SNB must be sweating bullets right about now.
EURUSD is weak also. May break below 1.2300 before the night is over.
AT,
Would today's move (high) satisfy your B wave count? Or I guess what I'm asking is if it would have the right look?
C,
8:18, take a look at the DOW rallies from 30-32, if you were even able to catch half those countertrend moves you could have made a ton, huge moves, and many lasted for a month or more so even on larger than last 10 minute degree....but it will be very hard to do that....maybe near impossible.
@McF
I think one could do it to some degree...
But certainly not in an entire way... IOW... If you were playing with 100% cash, and only made moves with, say 1/6th of that cash...
Basically having like 3 tranches of CALL SIDE & 3 TRANCHES of PUT side cash to play with (or whatever % one wanted)... Ebb and flow and adjust the ratios as you went along...
I think a clever person could manage the swings if they stayed disciplined...
Basically, you're just profiting off the volatility...
Frankly, I think that's the environment the banks WANT to engineer... They don't want stability, they want CHAOS...
They're just "trading houses" now anyway...
My main interest right now is from where do they decide to start the first volley...
My guess was that 2009 was all about getting that first volley up to the highest cliff they could find...
More "margin" in the end...
I think they were HOPING for the 1300's... They have thus far fallen short... We'll see if something can be done to pick it back up...
If not? So what... It means the base will eventually be adjusted lower...
In 2009 maybe they were thinking a 1300-600 margin would be enough "playroom"...
Now they might be thinking 1220-480... Who knows? (but that's the game)...
I would like to sing a little song, dedicated to the hard working, 4 day a week until the November elections, elected representatives and senators and of course, my good folks in the executive branch of government:
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm (tuning up)
You ain't nothing but a hound dog
You said you was high class
But that was just a lie
You ain't never caught a rabbit
And you ain't no friend of mine....
...Thank you. Pleassse hold the applause.
@BinT
"Thank you. Pleassse hold the applause."
That's fine... Just don't ask me to "Hold the Chicken"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wtfNE4z6a8
..and hold the overripe tomatoes....
By the way, CV, this weekend in addition to the good news, I saw a red fox cross the highway with a cat squirrel in its mouth, a very tiny very lost newborn fawn looking for its mother in a state park (on the road), a group of crows try to catch the second hatch of killdeers at the track where I run (the first hatch only had one surviving chick), and two of the largest velvet buck whitetails on our place in the north pasture I've ever seen.
Country living is for me.
Actually my favorite Jack line is "Never trust a fart" from the Bucket List.
...and now I am an old fart. A part I was born to play.....!
everyone- mch and BinT congrats on the growing families.
BinT-
The story you posted this morning was accurate. The top of the well is 5000 feet below sea level. The problem is below the top.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/multimedia/archive/00031/Montara_well_repair__31545a.jpg
It's not a diagram of that rig, but it gives an idea of what they are up against. They are trying to hit the first well bore near the bottom, 10,000 feet below the ocean floor, or 15,000 feet below sea level. They are also trying to hit it from the side.
Think of drilling a block of wood, then trying to hit bottom of the hole when drilling another hole from the side. Now, make the drill bit 15,000 feet long. It's actually got to be longer, they are not drilling straight down as the first well was. They are coming at it from the side. The target is the size of a dinner plate, the diameter of the original well bore at the bottom of the hole.
They are essentially going to have to keep stabbing at it. The "telemetry", or the ability to know where the drill bit is when it is 10,000 ft away isn't that exact. GPS and radio location doesn't work with that much earth over you.
The drill string is also "flexible" so it's not like aiming a gun, the drill bits wander off course. If each 40' section of the drill string can flex 1/8 of an inch there is quite a bit of flex when you line up 475 sections you have about 60 feet of flex in the total string, for example. Think of fiberglass tent poles. They may have more, I am not familiar with their set ups. But given that they are trying to drill it from the side, they probably have more flex than I detailed above.
It's why I have been saying that it is going to take a lot of luck, or a lot of time to hit the old well bore.
I wonder if sovereign debt concerns "return" tomorrow at 12.30 when the Argentina/Greece game begins....SELL!!!!
STL
Bob, if that is true, they are not going to hit a dinner plate at 15000 feet. Annie Oakley, they are not. No wonder they didn't go to that plan as plan A B or C....
Bob are you a geological (petroleum) engineer?
A video I took last year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trOON6_jTYY
Look at that work squirm. I prefer the country too, just further north, I can't stand that heat.
But I heard the retired CEO of Shell interviewed this afternoon, and he thought within 8 weeks the well would be capped.
...Probably an old fart..
@bob
If this was the movie "Armageddon", and this is the drilling...
We'd be at the point that Bruce Willis says...
"Prepare the Earth for bad news..."
Bob,
Where I live the climate is supposedly almost the twin to Chicago...1900 feet..
But as I was flipping thru the channels tonight, Rachel Maddow had a guy on that was talking about how NASA has a project that converts algae to biofuel...
So Rachel is on the solution...
We're all saved!
Gotta go boys, sorry. Sending Uncle a little more money...and a big day in the mine tomorrow.
Go Tipper!
Not a geologist, civil engineer by training. Been involved with a lot of drilling, including directional drilling, most of it field work, none in the oil field.
You can't see very far down those holes, especially with the string still in it.
CV
The craziest part of that movie is putting a drill rig in space. Any idea the weight of that stuff? The weight works for you when you are drilling, providing down force.
Sundance Resources board killed in plane crash
By John Letzing
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The entire board of directors of Australian miner Sundance Resources Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22x!e:sdl (AU:SDL 0.13, 0.00, 0.00%) was killed in a plane crash in the Republic of Congo on Saturday, the company said in a statement released Tuesday. Rescuers have found the wreckage of a plane that was carrying board members when it went missing on Saturday, but located no survivors. Authorities are waiting to study the plane's black box for clues as to why it crashed. Sundance Resources said in a statement that its board members were on their way to visit the company's Mbalam iron-ore project in Cameroon and Congo, and to meet with government representatives of both countries. Shares of Sundance have been suspended since Monday in Sydney, following news that the plane was missing.
Damn.
Thanks for the congrats everybody. CV, thanks for the mention in the morning audibles. This blog is awesome. Reading - very briefly - through the comments from today/tonight there are great insights that one would never read through the financial MSM. Such a valuable resource - even if the views are not agreeable to your own, they are still insightful and offer pause for thought.
I've been pretty busy as you parents out there can imagine - but oh so gratifying.
Saw the open and giggled. Went back to hospital for the day.
Came home to pick up a few things and saw the close. Fell on the flor and laughed my ass off - seriously, and I'm still in on the short side and still down a bit.
Unless:
1) Intermediate 1 is over already
OR
2) We are going to new highs,
this week should be be extremely volatile with ups and downs initially getting us nowhere in the big picture then to be followed by much lower lows and much lower highs. *Think of going down a staircase with the steps getting larger the farther down you go*
I'm liking Andy's target of 878 sometime within the next 4-6 weeks.
Looking forward to your update, Andy.
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