Morning Audibles 6.22.10 - Parsing the news 102

I swear... I'm going to try to NOT make this a daily habit, but I can't help lately but pour through news headlines and regurgitate them to you all in a "Cliff's Notes" version...
Without further ado... (I'm trying to make "Cliff" proud)...


Excerpt:
“The announcement out of China elicited an emotional response from the market,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Investments in Richmond, Virginia, which oversees $63 billion. A closer look at the announcement suggests China’s approach is very gradual and it is continuing at its own pace. It’s a less dramatic move when looked at more closely.”

Translation: "Since none of us know what the fuck we're doing, we prematurely interpreted Sunday's announcement as being potentially POSITIVE for equities... The markets said "NOT SO FAST", so now we're in the RETROFIT phase"...



Excerpts:
"Whereas Obama called on the G-20 to reaffirm its “unity of purpose to provide the policy support necessary to keep economic growth strong,” Merkel said that “it’s not about growth at any price, it’s about sustainable” growth."

Translation: "Since none of us know what the fuck we're doing, ANY announcement that any of us make, WE HOPE, will potentially be POSITIVE for equities... When the markets say "NOT SO FAST", we'll steal money from taxpayers to mitigate the damage...

"Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the U.S. isn’t worried about “loose monetary policy” and said it would be a risk for the euro region to allow Axel Weber, president of the Bundesbank, to succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as head of the European Central Bank, German newspaper Handelsblatt reported"

Translation: "I never knew what the fuck I was EVER doing... That's why I'm a proud NOBEL recipient"...

Obama’s Budget Director Orszag Plans to Leave Post 

Excerpt:
"A former director of the Congressional Budget Office, Orszag has worked to advance two of Obama’s top legislative priorities: the $862 billion economic stimulus measure passed in February 2009 and the $940 billion health-care overhaul passed in March. As director of the budget office, he prepared both of Obama’s first two spending blueprints."

Translation: "Fool me once, shame on you... Fool me TWICE... We won't get fooled again..." (But you know damn well we will)...

"Upon leaving the administration, Orszag will likely join a think tank, said one of the administration officials."

Translation: A "THINK TANK"... Wasn't CHAUNCEY GARDENER held in high esteem by those organizations?



China’s Restrictions on Rare Earths Said to Be Targeted by U.S.

"China controls 97 percent of production of the materials, known as rare earth elements, giving it “market power” over the U.S."

Translation: What ever happened to SHOVEL READY jobs in America? We have ABUNDANT natural resources... Petroleum, Nat Gas, Shale, Aquifers, probably these RARE EARTHS too... Is there ANYBODY in this country who wants to stick a shovel in the ground?... No... because we're too busy fighting wars in the Middle East, cleaning up spills in the deep water GOM... And flapping our yaps about GLOBAL WARMING to actually go to Home Depot, buy a shovel, and stomp it into the ground with a foot...

Meanwhile... This is CV's own NEWS (parse away suckas!)... It's the VIX (annotated) over the past 3 years... Cliff would tell you that there's this RECTANGULAR BOX in the 22-25 area... Then, there are a bunch of "notes" above and below that box...

Make of those what you wish...

Or... You might 'noodle about' upon the sustainability of THIS...

Or... You could just slide in with the GIB...


332 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 332   Newer›   Newest»
wunsacon said...

Many "shovel-ready" jobs are available in PR firms, on Wall Street, and on Madison Avenue.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6718420906413643126&hl=en&emb=1

Anonymous said...

Great post and I love the Being There clip!

I often feel that my incessant visits to this site seem like a guilty pleasure, being surrounded by people who see the world the same way I do is not usually a good thing as I discovered from my religious upbringing. Anyway we've already had the groupthink debate.

Now I hope LB stops by again today, I find his on-line persona hilarious, he lights up the forum when he saunters in.

Regards to all, Bertie

Privately Employed said...

Men and Women and Leftback:

Love the article about the goofy 6 month ban on drilling by the Obama administration, especially since evidence is turning up the O administration knew the BP well was leaking since February....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gulf-rig-owner-criticizes-apf-2120468600.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Gulf rig owner criticizes Obama's drilling halt

...When we had 3 mile island did we shut down all the nuclear plants? No, and with good reason.

Hot in the south today.

BinT said...

It appears Krugman's and Obama's efforts to save the world are going unanswered. Europe has decided that our two boys are the ugly sisters at the dance, and I don't think they are going to get asked out. Meanwhile the debt clock is down for repairs, when it was made they didn't expect this kind of wear and tear.

Off to do what I do.

McFearless said...

so the big question today is whether or not yesterday was a b wave or the start of something else.....

Anonymous said...

excellent post-

speaking of Krugman- I liked this from him yesterday-

Spend Now, Save Later . . .now is not the time for fiscal austerity. How will we know when that time has come? . . . when the Federal Reserve has regained traction over the economy

and there we have it- Krugman puts a lot of faith in the Fed- but we know it's all bullshit because the USG never saves- good times or bad- reminds me of another saying-

"if not now- when?"

CV said...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Obama-is-in-over-his-head-96764199.html

Nic said...

Good Morning
UK budget was brutal, VAT (sales tax) up to 20% and Cap gains up an additional 10% for higher rate tax payers. Sign of things to come everywhere methinks ...

CV said...

Gen. Stanley McChrystal, top commander in Afghanistan, ordered home over Rolling Stone comments

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2010/06/22/2010-06-22_gen_stanley_mcchrystal_top_commander_in_afghanistan_ordered_home_over_rolling_st.html

CV said...

@Nic

That ought to help those "profit margins" (from above)...

Anonymous said...

and this from Bloomberg today- appears to be the world's answer to Krugman-

World leaders from the U.K.’s David Cameron to Naoto Kan of Japan are betting they can deliver fiscal austerity without derailing economic prosperity. History suggests they may be right.

but . . .then we have this from the same article-

Some investors are cool to the idea so far, and even President Barack Obama is pressing for more stimulus, not less, in the U.S. as he prepares to meet Cameron, Kan and other Group of 20 counterparts at a summit in Toronto June 26-27.

more stimulus . . .hahahahahaha-

thats a great idea . . .good thing the rest of the world is getting clued in to our inept ways

Nic said...

Afghanistan is a goat-rope. A war we will never win, don't believe what they tell you. We need to get out of there.

CV said...

Nice to know Obama has time for important things...

Constance McMillen, set to meet Obama and march for Gay Pride, can take pride in 'ruining' her prom

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2010/06/22/2010-06-22_she_can_take_pride_in_ruining_the_prom.html

No time to put a budget together though...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Obama-is-in-over-his-head-96764199.html

CV said...

@Nic

The Soviets could have told you that 30 years ago...

Anonymous said...

McChrystal having to bow down and kiss Obama's ring-

enough to make me nauseas-

and it kills me that people have to preface everything by saying-

"well I voted for him"- Cramer said that on the Jon Stewart show- and McChrystal says it in the Rolling Stones article-

why is that necessary- to justify their criticism?

CV said...

But Obama's handling of it has been utterly inept...

Yeah - Tell them that you're going to be out by July 2011...

So great, the Taliban can just buy a calendar, a couple of red sharpies, and sit in a cave and wait it out...

Anonymous said...

CV-

you do realize that Obama mentioned "two father" families in his father days speech-

of course! Had to get that in there- how many two father families can their really be- I don't know of one-

but their must be such a significant percentage that they get a mention by the President-

what of three father families- why are they snubbed? Has to be a few of them out there

Anonymous said...

Nic-

who says we're trying to win? Maybe its a big training exercise- for future endeavors in the desert-

besides- it gives the military something to do

CV said...

@ahab

Yeah, gets them away from Pendleton (and provides a little more peace and quiet for karen)...

CV said...

You should read the ZH comment section on the Orszag story...

You thought CV was bad... Somebody's going to have to read them The Riot Act...

Anonymous said...

>> "well I voted for him"-
>> why is that necessary- to justify their criticism?

A little nitpick here... Don't you think it makes the criticism more "legit"? I do. (It means, for instance, that you didn't start off disliking the guy because you're a "birther" or some other reason.) ... That's why I sometimes say it when I criticize him.

CV said...

If TWSWB with his "typical recovery", or franklin411 with his "Obamajammies" were to accidentally stroll in there, I think they'd get crucified...

CV said...

@anon

I think it adds perspective (from a starting point), but it doesn't get much more mileage after that...

McFearless said...

wouldn't criticism be more legit coming from someone that said they didn't vote for Obama? What am I missing by saying that?

As for Afghanistan, I've had a cousin there for two years...he tells me he's not sure exactly what his mission is....sort of hard to "win" that....

CV said...

@McFearless

Sounds like Vietnam...

CV said...

kill Charlie...

Anonymous said...

Nic-

you're a Brit right? The 20 billion BP set aside- extortion?

anon @ 9:18-

I find it weak- it's a secret ballot after all- someone could have voted for Lyndon LaRouche as far as you know-

so it comes off like- hey I voted for him- yeah I was on board with the hope and change- but just want to pass along a few suggestions-

why always prefaced that way? I find it ridiculous

McFearless said...

ahab,

I don't recall anyone saying...well I voted for Bush, but I do have some suggestions for Katrina.

That's an Obama thing going on there.....the same people saying it found it entirely appropriate to bash Bush without making the point they voted for him (and its doubtful many of them did)....it's an interesting social dynamic, not a defense of Bush, just an observation.

Anonymous said...

b22 @ 9:21-

exactly-

should I have to preface my comments by- "well I didn't vote for Obama" and here's what I think-

how stupid is that?

Anonymous said...

b22 @ 9:31-

bingo

CV said...

Look... It's simple...

People always hated Bush from day one...

Most people liked Obama from day one...

This country is more DIVIDED politically than it's ever been... It's PERSONAL to people...

If you don't fall in line with their political viewpoint, you're immediately "cast out"... Most will hardly listen to what you have to say, good or bad, or consider whether it makes sense or not...

That's the way it is...

So it's "tactical" to say you VOTED FOR one or avoid saying you VOTED FOR the other because it puts you on the side where more ears might be willing to listen to you...

It has nothing to do with anything else...

You don't walk into a Harvard party wearing a Yale sweater...

karen said...

morning! can't comment much cuz i think i'm still drunk on port.. but i got the vix chart : )

CV said...

@karen

That's OK karen

It's all going to hell, so why not just sit back and enjoy the fireworks with a nice glass of wine? :-)

Nic said...

Ahab
My first impression about the BP fund was extortion but I think now they have been pretty smart. Anyone they can deal with without litigating gets people their money quicker but saves BP money too.
Plus it does go someway to help their appalling PR

Anonymous said...

CV-

You don't walk into a Harvard party wearing a Yale sweater. . .

assuming you are trying to get along(-:!!!

also- wading through ZH comments is brutal-

but now I will have to go and see what all the fuss is about regarding Orszag

Nic said...

Mr Topstep says:
Buy stops above 1117.50 and again above 1121 all kind a small, sell stops under 1108 small and big under 1103

CV said...

@Nic

Yeah, just dial up the "pay czar" to dole out the cash and get back to your "brackets" (as O was apparently doing back in February-March when the blowout leak actually started)...

karen said...

in case you were wondering: U.S. existing-home sales dip in May; economists had forecast a sales rise 06/22/2010 10:02:13 AM

Anonymous said...

Existing Home Sales Fall Unexpectedly in May, Down 2.2 Percent

duh- unexpectedly no less- LOL

what planet are these forecasters on? and we all know- ahab's forecast has been "on the money"

I-Man said...

Its gonna be a good day...

McFearless said...

C,
re: Vietnam, I think as of this month the Afghan war is now longer than the war in Vietnam, and I think you nailed the idea up above of why people say they voted for Obama before offering up a different view/idea than is.

CV said...

@karen

More 'economists' collecting fat checks for forecasting...

I mean... You might as well just be a horse racing tout, or a football betting tout...

"I think this horse is going to win"...

Then it doesn't... NEXT RACE...

Nic said...

Good article about Nattie:
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/06/fracking-in-pennsylvania-201006

McFearless said...

crap, huge battle last night btwn Kenny and Dan, wonder what that's all about.

McFearless said...

Karen, I had a bad episode with some port about two years ago....I woke up in our downstairs bathroom with no clothes on, no idea how I got there or where the heck all my clothes were...

Nic said...

I am happy to hear you are having fun Karen :)

CV said...

@McF

"I think you nailed the idea up above of why people say they voted for Obama before offering up a different view/idea than is."

That's the hardest thing for me to wade through...

Telling people I "didn't" vote for him but trying to get them to listen to anything I have to say...

And usually if I decide to stick my foot in the door anyway and have my say... The NEXT argument from these people is...

"Oh well, McCain wouldn't have been any better"...

Then I tell them I didn't vote for McCain either and they just stand there with a dumb look on their face...

McFearless said...

this still could be a second wave but I'm pretty convinced it wasn't the top of 2 yesterday if it is a second wave. You can't count the pattern everyone is using properly on all the time frames....I think EWI has already called the top of this second wave 2 or 3 times now.

karen said...

Ben, that is too funny! fortunately, i only had to walk straight across the street to get home.. although i surely wasn't walking straight.. will someone please tell me what this market is doing?

McFearless said...

we may be setting up for a big drop down today though.....charts are looking interesting this morning.

CV said...

@McF

I think it "wants" to be a wave 2...

But, TPTB (PPT), with their tape painting is turning it into something else...

Of course, it will eventually get resolved... But there is a battle of what these waves "should" be, and what they're being forced into being...

Anonymous said...

CV-

the ZH Orszag thread is is hysterical-

a lot of "one liners"- so quick reading-

anyway gotta roll out-

all have a great day

karen said...

"So just as a week ago Monday, a dramatic late day reversal led to zero consequences on Tuesday - even though the textbooks say it should. But the textbooks don't account for the power of the 'urgent buyer' who is with us most days in premarket.

As long as this 200 day holds, bulls still have the ball in their court, but as I noted the past few weeks I would feel more comfortable over 1120. We had that for a few hours yesterday but the close is what counts, not the intraday pricing."

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/

I-Man said...

I-Man is short, price target 1101.

CV said...

And here we go with the first Tropical Storm/Hurricane of the season heading to the GOM to help Obama "distribute" the oil profits to all Gulf Coast residents... (on their roofs & lawns)...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Anonymous said...

@McFearless, RE: your 8:40PM post yesterday.

The discussion may have started with a claim that "the street" was to blame for the losses. I didn't see those comments. What I did see was a claim that it's just a matter of devoting time to the issue, that the information was out there, that it's not complicated... Yet according to Steve Keen, 99% of professional economists (academia, not Wall Street marketeers) missed the boat on this crisis. Supposed experts disagree whether we need austerity or more spending right now; whether we will have deflation or inflation next year; whether joining the Euro zone was the key to prosperity or the kiss of death. These are not fine details... A lot of these experts (will) have been fundamentally fucking wrong!

No doubt there will be a handful who will have gotten everything right... but how much time should the average American have to devote to this issue before he can successfully choose from the diametrically opposing opinions of economics professors, policy makers, Nobel laureates, and central bankers? (Rhetorical question.)

Nic said...

We could have slow markets today grinding into tomorrow's FOMC ... range on my fx pairs is very tight today

karen said...

Oh, Nic, I'm in such a fog.. completely forgot about FOMC tomorrow!

CV said...

@anon

Who says ANYONE needs to listen to any of them?

Why not apply a little "common sense" to the matter?

McFearless said...

Nobody has learned a damn thing from any of this, further's my belief in Primary Wave 3 for certain, even people here yesterday still buzzing about nominal rates of return on cash, amazing to me, 10 years of negative stock returns and still stuck on that. Most massive credit and now money supply deflation ever and people still talking about how savers are forced to take risk. I'm a seller of this idea.

but anyway, over in Spain, they certainly also do not understand that you can not foce people to take on debt, even when you make it "free" to borrow, and I'm thinking with the current unemployment over there, this will be a giant fail just like the other things they've tried so far:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spain-goes-broke-sweeping-toxic-crap-under-rug-second-time-many-years

My head is spinning after reading this.

AmenRa said...

EURUSD & EUFCHF are being decimated. So much for Eurotarp and SNB intervention.

Mannwich said...

I see we've continued our little "debate" from yesterday. Personally, I just think we should all (myself included, as I am often the worst offender) refrain from totally disdaining average people who have better things to do with their lives than to sit around on blogs like these and stew about the world. Again, just trying to see the "other" side here, folks.

karen said...

spx getting perilously close to rolling over so expect a high volume surge any minute..

actually, was just looking at 15 min charts over last couple of weeks.. last 15 minutes of every day is when the volume comes in..

Mannwich said...

And believe me, when I'm out there in that "real world", I often try to challenge conventional wisdom out there on the street with my friends and family and it ain't easy. It drives me crazy too, but I try to see their side of it if they'll see mine (many do, most don't). I think we forget that sometimes this blogosphere thing is it's own group-think "bubble" just like the little "bubbles" out in the real world. We should all be careful in disdaining those who choose not to partake.

I-Man said...

People with no interest or inclination to learn about the markets, should not participate in them, period.

The fact that they have been seduced by the sell side machine of Wall St into believing that its all good to have your retirement savings in mutual funds is a tragedy.

However, lets not forget that the Market is constantly trying to teach these people to get out...

Yet they continue to ignore the call. They are focused only on greed, until fear grabs them by the neck.

Mannwich said...

Probably true, I-Man, but it ain't gonna happen. A lot of people "should" do a lot of things. The world ain't a perfect place.

I-Man said...

BTW,

CV, I plunged the press with less pressure today, and sludge reduced greatly... and tastily.

Nic said...

Au revoir Les Blues!! ha ha
(France vs South Africa)

I-Man said...

Then those folks have no one to blame but themselves for losses they may incur, even if they are paying someone else to "take care of it."

I've seen how well its "taken care of" from the inside, and determined that no one is better disposed to take care of my money, than I and I.

Nothing wrong with cash, bank cds, and T-bills and bonds...

Alot of wealth to be compounded at 4% over the course of ones life, right?


But no, rather risk it all because some guy in a suit with some colorful hypo's who I've met twice tells me he can get me 10% a year because thats what stocks do over the long term. (snark)


Just waiting on the inevitable generational flush out...

McFearless said...

Anon, I'm still missing your point exactly....how did 99% of economists being wrong cause anyone to lose any money? In order for the individual to lose, based on what you are saying, they still had to take action on someone else's opinon yes?

Here's the thing, lets take your side for a minute and say this is just way too hard for the average person to figure out. If that is truly the case (which I completely disagree with), then the average person should step aside and not at all be involved. They are best leaving their money in cash.

As I said last night, there are plenty of ways to make money, stick with what you understand, what you are willing to put a lot of time and effort into, and you'll likely have more success than blindly following others.

As for this:

"but how much time should the average American have to devote to this issue before he can successfully choose from the diametrically opposing opinions of economics professors, policy makers, Nobel laureates, and central bankers?"

um, you spend as much time as it takes if your goal is to win, to have success, and if you aren't spending the time, then as I've been saying, your interests are elsewhere. I wonder if when Bill Gates was developing things he thought to himself....oh crap, this is going to take a long time. And if you just want to be the average American, then you do the average, and you should therefore expect your average effort to produce average results and you shouldn't blame someone else for those average results, they were earned. But hey, thanks for making my point, which is that most people want a handout and don't really want to do hard work, they only want the reward side.

Mannwich said...

So we're into "blame the victim" if the system they engage in is fraudulent in many respects? Sorry, not buying that meme? It's an elitist one.

I-Man said...

People who are lame, love to blame.

I-Man said...

What I mean is, I dont think there is any victim, we're all responsible for our own shit in this game.

And if you dont want to learn to play well, then you will lose.

Mannwich said...

@ben: "Most people want a handout?" C'mon man, even I'M not that cynical. I totally disagree. Most people want their financial advisors whom they PAY to help manage their money to DO THEIR JOBS, period. That's why people hire other people - for expertise and knowledge THEY don't have themselves or can't make the time to learn due to other priorities in life. I wonder if McHappy's finding that out now with a newborn in his life? When the system is as fraudulent and corrupt as it is, so that means all average people should just sit in cash? That's blaming the victim. Empathy, folks. It's a healthy thing to see the other side once in a while.

I-Man said...

Nic,
eurusd... 5min chart

Squeeze before the plunge?

Mannwich said...

And if the "game" were merely about "investing" in companies, then I'd be more inclined to agree with you. People should do their homework and then try to find the companies that are the best "investments". It's not. It's a fraudulent market and system that has been distorted a million times over by the Feds and insiders in the game. Shouldn't we at least try to fix THAT instead of saying, "well, if you can't bone up on all the intricacies of said fraudulent system and you lose, it's your own damn fault that you got raped by those criminals"?

Anonymous said...

@McFearless

"how did 99% of economists being wrong cause anyone to lose any money?"

I didn't say it did. I said it makes figuring things out difficult.

"say this is just way too hard for the average person to figure out. [..] then the average person should step aside and not at all be involved. They are best leaving their money in cash."

The problem is that cash is not (or at least doesn't feel like) a neutral position. Perhaps this is where our opinions differ. Do you think that the average person should be satisfied with whatever wealth protection an FDIC insured CD provides? With a Fed chairman who openly advocates throwing money out of helicopters...?

Perhaps you are right that they should.

But let me bring up an analogy real quick... do you know much about vaccinations? Do you take your children to get vaccinated? How would you feel if it suddenly turned out that 99% of the medical experts were wrong and vaccinations cause your child to be disabled or die? The information is out there, you know, people have been saying for ages that vaccination is bad for you... And in worst case you could just go and get your Ph.D. in biochemistry and figure it all out for yourself.

I-Man said...

The whole game isnt fraudulent, come on Manny...

What is fraudulent, is the idea that participation in capital markets is some kind of right...

Its a choice, just like everything else.

Shortcrone said...

In defense of the "common man", the majority of Americans do their investing through their 401k program at work. The information that they are given and the "advice" available to them is through the 401k provider, usually a mutual fund company or an insurance company. Everything is based on the rational market theory. Everything has to be based on diversification and risk tolerance questions in order to pass through compliance. Everyone knows it's a crock of doodoo, but we must comply. Everyone has been told that if you are patient and have a long enough time frame, you will be rewarded with substantial returns.

Our Fed Reserve Chairman, lead economists, etc. all told us that everything was contained and that the market would be fine in 2008. You really had to seek out contrary opinions-they weren't easily available. Working people are supposed to be working. Give them some credit-they used the resources that were made available to them.

Now, on the other hand, if they persist in using them after they were shown to be so blatantly wrong, then they are fools and deserve what they get next.

CV said...

Life's a bitch and then you die... :-) lol

I-Man said...

No one ever taught me a thing about money.

Not in grammar school, high school, or college.

I had to go out and take the knowledge that I have accumulated, I had to work hard to gather understanding.

I'm probably not the best person to be debating this, because the business I have chosen to work hard in for my living is trading.

But it would be no different if I was a farmer, mechanic, or longshoreman at the port.

Working for a bank, I've seen plenty of people with alot of cash in savings accounts and bank cds that wouldnt dare by a share in stock or a mutual fund...

But they were all over 75 or so...

There is a lesson there.

We should all seek to understand that lesson, for it is the future we are about to inherit.

Mannwich said...

Far too much of it is, I-Man. You're drinking the Kool Aide if you think it isn't. Like Anon mentions above, if other industries were anywhere close to as fraudulent and shady as Wall Steet is, it wouldn't be accepted and usually isn't.

Like he/she says - if you accept the advice of other so-called "professionals" in other fields and their ending being disastrously wrong, is it YOUR fault that you listened to them and that you should have boned up more on pharmaceuticals? Some of this financial stuff is now pretty complicated and takes a lot of time to go through for average people. Too bad for you or your kid you listened to the wrong "experts"? It may not be for you and others here but it is for other people, but you and others here are also not experts on other things. What do you do for the knowledge you don't have? You hire and count on other people to provide that to you in a legitimate system.

I-Man said...

"Lifes a bitch and then you die, thats why we get high, cuz you never know when you're gonna go..."

-Nas

CV said...

Don't like the "system" you're in? Or the corrupt nature of the people who call the shots?

Unplug from it... Go it on your own...

BinT said...

Well, CV, the fits hit the shan. People were debating whether Obamacare will be the solution for the high costs of American health care. I think we now see how really inept this unprepared man is proving to be in the oval office. Notice what is happening to medicare, and this has been around since Lyndon Johnson:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-06-20-medicare_N.htm

Doctors limit new Medicare patients

...and they tell me there is no budget for next year.....I suppose the numbers are just to scary to let the voters see them...

I-Man said...

I-Man dont drink no babylon kool-aid...

CV said...

Don't have the courage to 'go it on your own'?

Then live with it...

Mannwich said...

I agree, short crone. I do think that SOME people are finally turning away from equities. Problem is their diving into junk bonds instead! ;-)

CV said...

@BinT

That's right... No budget...

They didn't even try to put one together... They're hoping people won't notice until after the elections...

Mannwich said...

Don't like being raped? Then don't wear that skimpy dress. Might as well put it that way. She was asking for it.

Shortcrone said...

Or, worse, those lovely, lyrical, astronomically costly variable annuities promising boundless guaranteed income for life! The latest to cross my desk had a prospectus with over 1700 pages-more than the health care bill! Care to guess how many actually read it?

Mannwich said...

Defective products aren't allowed in other sectors of our economy. Why are they allowed on Wall Street? I'll let others here decide that one.

McFearless said...

Whoa Manny, not everyone has an advisor, this is an entirely different topic, in fact, something like 10% of all millionaires even have a written financial plan in place with an advisor, it's not as if there are masses pounding my door every day so eager to pay me fees to manage their money for them (though if it was all about not having the time, shouldn't they be?), and btw, you are aware I would hope that many people that pay their advisors, still make up their own mind and often go against the advisors advice. I have it happen to me all the time and I know other advisors do too.

Further on this point for people that do pay an advisor, what are you saying, that if people have an advisor then they should expect what exactly, to make money every year? Is that how an advisor "does their job"?....that's an impossible expectation but certainly one that most people share (doesn't mean it's right) and somehow I should feel empathy toward this view point. Uh....no. Are there lots of shitty advisors....of course there are, but if we want to play this "see the other side game" then who's at fault in the case where a prospect comes to see me this year and wants to put all their money in oil and I say I dont' think it's a good idea so they hire one of my co-workers down the street instead that says it is, and then they lose money.....this is also common, people seek out an advisor that shares views they already developed themself. Of course many people have been burned by advisors, not denying that, but to think that you "win" simply because you hire someone else....very foolish. You can treat a business that deals with probability like you would someone that frames windows or builds your deck, or does your taxes, it's apples and oranges.

I-Man said...

@ Nic, Bob

What do yall think the best spx proxy right now is: audusd, or audjpy?

eurusd is looking a little off kilter to spx.

CV said...

@Manny

"Don't like being raped? Then don't wear that skimpy dress. Might as well put it that way. She was asking for it."

That's about the worst analogy that I've ever read...

McFearless said...

I maintain most people do want a handout in markets, they want high returns with low risk and low volatility and they don't want to have spend much time getting it, it's what nearly every single person desires. I've seen data that has shown that the average investor made about 3% per year in the 90's, yet somehow they are not to blame for following the same old advice that they have available from their 401k provider? What? Short Crone said yesterday that clients want him/her to be in and out of the next bubble just in time for them to make money and push the crap off to the next chump, this isn't some random topic that never comes up with advisors and clients....I lost a client a few months back right before we turned down because I "wasn't taking advantage of the upturn in stocks", I could give countless examples.

this idea that the system is now just so corrupt, please, there has always been corruption in markets, and there always be same with every single other business ever known to man for that matter. We've even got corrupt charities! How do you know it's more corrupt now? Do you think there wasn't massive massive corruption in the 80's and 90's when these people could have made a killing in stocks? There was.

I'm not going to promote herding or use it as an excuse, this idea people have to be in stocks, but the system is just so messed up I should feel bad when they lose, I mean it's not their fault, it's "the systems". The very idea that people MUST be in stocks comes from an optimistic social mood, there have been periods in this country where the last place the net wanted their money was in stocks, now it's the other side of that extreme, we'll see stocks widely hated by the public again. These are just my view points, views that I'd gather 99% people will reject because they think social mood is nonsense and they feel the same about wave theory, and if they lose....who's fault is that? I'm not feeling bad for anyone that is unable emotionally to break away from the pack, hard choices often have the greatest rewards....I'm not giving an excuse to anyone that does something because "everyone else is doing it", that never worked for me growing up, it shouldn't as an adult either.

I don't think this makes me elitist, but perhaps I'm guilty of thinking others should be able to do what I have done.... but in my own mind, I'm not some boy wonder, I'm a nothing, I just took the time needed to learn and I've done pretty well for myself as a result.

I'd argue the most healthy thing for people to do is to stop thinking like everyone else and to think for themselves for a minute.

Anonymous said...

"I'd argue the most healthy thing for people to do is to stop thinking like everyone else and to think for themselves for a minute."

And I'd argue that we live in a world too fucking complicated to do this in every aspect of your life.

CV said...

@I-Man (11:44)

How about EURJPY?

Mannwich said...

I'm not saying that at all, ben, but I DO think they should be able to "invest" in a legitimate environment. You're missing my point.

Sure, many people falsely expect 7-10% every year. That's ridiculous but it's the industry that pitches that everywhere you look. YOUR industry. Not mine.

CV said...

@Anon

"a world too fucking complicated"

Then UNPLUG from it...

Mannwich said...

An old coach once cautioned me when I became a young coach - "do not expect others to be able to do what you can do (and did". It's a recipe for disappointment.

Mannwich said...

@cv: A world whereby we THINK we don't need others to survive is a pretty depressing one to think about, IMO. Count me out on that world.

CV said...

Last time I checked, nobody FORCED you to buy a iPhone, or have a high speed internet connection, or a high def TV...

Hell, you're not even forced to have friends...

I'm sure there are many happy people on this planet that have never used, don't need, or don't want any of these things...

Think any of them are crying about who's stealing their money, or what "entitlements" they're getting gipped out of?...

Nic said...

Sorry I-Man, shower.
EURUSD 5min is two equal swings off the bottom today so maybe rally over

I-Man said...

CV 11:49

I'm not seeing the same corellation in the eur crosses that I was a few weeks ago...

There is something about the aud pairs I cant figure out, but they seem to be tracking the spx better.

Dont know why, but an observation...

Mannwich said...

@CV: I honestly don't see how that's a related topic. Tangential at best.

CV said...

@Manny (11:51)

Fine then... If that's the set of parameters you establish then PUT UP WITH the crap...

There's always a choice...

I-Man said...

Nic,

LOL... I need a shower and toilet in my office, so I dont have to leave the screen.

Mannwich said...

OK cv. We should all just learn how to do EVERYTHING like you. Total self-sufficiency. Now THAT'S realistic. LOL.

I-Man said...

I propose we all chill, forget the debate, and give this a listen...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Olzn-qQMLsw

Sed Way.

CV said...

I'm tired of this idiot debate...

So... THE FINAL OFFICIAL POV of CV is that

"Manny is right"... What we NEED to do is live in this utopian world where nobody screws anybody, and everyone sits around the campfire holding hands and sings "kumbay-fucking-ya"...

There... You win... I'm retired...

McFearless said...

Manny,

another produce of social mood, again my opinion, is that when you are in stocks you are somehow investing....it's speculation holmes, and it always will be.

You are buying little slips of paper, perhaps this would ring more true with people if they still got stock certs and everything wasn't electronic.

McFearless said...

Anon,

in some respects I agree with you, I can't be an expert at everything, that's for sure, I have to pick and choose, but this goes back to the original point, nobody is forced into taking risk with their money.

Mannwich said...

Ah, the old fall back argument when you can't win the real one. Throw out a grenade and a diversion. Please.

Mannwich said...

If only everyone were more like CV, the world would be a better place. TOTAL self sufficiency and brilliance in EVERYTHING they do. A lot of alone time though, probably not a recipe for true contentment.

McFearless said...

oh well, next topic, decent debate....

McFearless said...

at least we aren't all sitting here talking about who won the latest reality show....I could think of worse topics.

Nic said...

I-Man, AUD and CAD are better correlated since the Euro swoon IMO. Although often SPX moves tick for tick with EUR and it could come back

I-Man said...

We're all kin-dread here...

I-Man said...

Thx, Nic

CV said...

@Manny

No... I'm just sick of arguing the point (because I've already made up my mind on the subject and neither yourself or anyone else is going to change my mind)...

It's not about WINNING the argument... I'm not craving victory here... I'm already satisfied with my stance...

I made my points public... People either decide to consider them or reject them... You reject them... So be it...

I'm NOT into "groupthink"... That's why I started a different blog...

At least I'm not BANISHING YOU AWAY here for expressing your own opinion and telling you that you're not welcome...

BinT said...

Who did win?


....(Giggle...)

BinT said...

CV,

The rest of the room asked me to tell you we took a vote today and you won.....


Grumpiest old fart of the week.

Pbtttttttttttt!

I-Man said...

Portugal.

Mannwich said...

Fair enough, cv. Not trying to "win" either. Just trying to present the "other side".

No other industry in our economy is allowed to be as defective and corrupt (and quasi-fraudulent) as the financial industry. There's plenty of blame to go around but blaming it all on the victim in this case just doesn't sit well with me. In no other industry would we do that. Not one.

BinT said...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Obama-is-in-over-his-head-96764199.html

"The new cliche is that such magical budgeting practices are "unsustainable." They are sadly much more sustainable when everyone in power agrees to pretend that they aren't there.

Thus do the Democrats steel themselves to face a furious electorate: "What deficit? We don't have no stinking deficit. We haven't even passed a budget yet."

Democrats in the rank and file appear to understand that this will not work in the age of Tea Party activism. Clueless Dems like the very flappable Rep. Bob Etheridge, D-N.C., erupt in anger at the appearance of a flip phone, while others cower in their district offices, afraid they will be asked deeply unfair questions like, "Do you support the entire Obama agenda?" The White House advance office is scrambling to line up gigs for the president in the fall, where his act is suddenly as popular as Melanie backed up by the Lettermen.

The Gulf spill parade of fiascos is adding to the president's ever-present and growing aura of vincibility, and Hill staffers are freshening up the resume. They should be.

There is a vast, coast-to-coast recognition of "oiiohh" -- Obama is in over his head. I have offered the T-shirt to my radio audience, and they are moving quite briskly. The "messiah" has become a punch line."

CV said...

@BinT

Do I get a trophy for that? Can I put it next to by Nobel Prize? or my patch that says I bowled a 750 series once?

Mannwich said...

"Smart people" (and resourceful, hardworking) here can't expect everyone to be "like them". Would you even WANT that in reality? I think not.

OK, I'm done. I guess I have to play my role as the gadfly from time to time since nobody else will do it. Too much agreeing on this board for my liking sometimes. ;-)

AmenRa said...

This market today reminds me of fire drills in kindergarten. Everyone is lined up and ready to go but are getting anxious because no one has pulled the alarm yet.

CV said...

@Nic

I think your earlier comment was right...

It just seems like it's going to churn sideways all day here (waiting eventually for FOMC)...

Not that THAT means anything, but, it's an excuse to go sideways and print another DOJI...

CV said...

@Manny

lol - you're a PEACH! :-)

I-Man said...

could be setting up a run at the 1116...

AmenRa said...

It's funny. I used to enjoy listening to Obama. Now I can't press the mute button fast enough when he's on. His new slogan should be: "Futility - when you can't do a damn thing about it."

CV said...

@Manny

Another thing...

It's hard to see (because all there are on a blog are words, pictures, and stories)...

But I seriously doubt anybody who contributes to this blog (at least any that I know of), are REALLY TRULY DEEP DOWN PESSIMISTIC PEOPLE...

We banter about using dark humor, and poking jabs at the system (and the actors IN the system) because it provides a little COMIC RELIEF... And "brotherhood" to go along with that...

With the world as crazy as it is, there's the need for the human brain to "COMPARTMENTALIZE"...

Blogging is a way of doing that (to pass the time so that your brain doesn't melt away like acid was poured on it watching the ticks of the tape all day)...

During the day here, you can just package that all up and lock it neatly away into it's own space...

I seriously doubt anyone is outright CONSUMED by these antics... And if they are, THEN they should be worried...

karen said...

I just frightened myself.. i thot i typed in $xad:uup and i typed in $xau:uup.. the latter is clearly in an uptrend! LOL

CV said...

@karen

I see the port hasn't worn off yet... :-)

karen said...

CV, ha ha, i was just trying to get a little attention : )

I-Man said...

I want to see the hammer drop!

McFearless said...

"No other industry in our economy is allowed to be as defective and corrupt (and quasi-fraudulent) as the financial industry."

Perhaps....education system might take the cake though, if not...maybe boxing? lol....this seems an easy observation because it's top of mind, my guess is the masses would have picked another "most currupt" industry in the 90's.

I'd also argue since politicking is now a career that it is likely the most corrupt industry and best yet...they make the laws!

McFearless said...

at this point it's already 1 and no severe action to the downside, has to given anyone that called yesterday the top of Wave 2 pause....

karen said...

hey, ben.. what is RR's point of view these days.. still bearish?

McFearless said...

Karen,

yesterday RR wrote probably his most bearish letter of the year for his daily update, not only did he mention going back to the March lows but he even acknowledged Prechter specifically and said DOW 400, yes, a 4 with only two 0's after, is a distinct possibility for the next move down. He said it was an idea he used to laugh out, but now one that he thinks is very real. He's talking about the biggest bear market ever.

He's been in and out of the hospital a lot lately as well, hope he'll be around for a while still.

McFearless said...

anyone looking at the dollar....EWI marked the recent low as the end of wave A of 2 any near term pop being wave B of 2....On the impulsive overall count, it could still also work that we are just in a wave 4 right now and five up is still to come. they are calling wave 1 extended but it's about the same size as what they label as 3 and the wave 5 looks compared to 3 and 1 just doesn't seem very logical to me....color me confused about the dollar's near term as a result, and happy not to be involved for the time being.

McFearless said...

lunar eclipse on 6/26.

karen said...

the market is sleeping.. or dead.

karen said...

on the full moon?! and i've got a dinner date!

CV said...

don't order the port...

McFearless said...

an observation: some of the pundits that did the best job in identifying the issues with real estate are currently pounding the table that a second dip in housing has started.....now square that in the face of the economic ASSumptions Timmay recently put out and one of these things does not belong....my money is on the people that saw the first leg down in housing, not the Treasury.

BinT said...

"Do I get a trophy for that? Can I put it next to by Nobel Prize? or my patch that says I bowled a 750 series once?"


...In this day and age, a tattoo is required. Perhaps in the area of George Schultz's....

McFearless said...

and while we may disagree with BR about his typical recovery crap talk....I do agree with this comment from him today:

"Get ready for another leg down — not just volume –in PRICE."

CV said...

CV would like to go short her, but the old saying "never short a dull market" keeps ringing in my head...

CV said...

@McF

I wonder if Timmay sold his house yet?

72bat said...

not to worry, karen, unless your dinner date is in hawaii, western alaska or the south pacific

I-Man said...

The problem with getting short right here is you fall into the triangle trap.

I'm short from 1112.25, and could have covered at that move to 1106, and be sitting out this congestion...

But I didnt, and have thus ridden the whole pattern...

But sticking to the initial price target of the trade, 1101.

I wont say what stops me out, just in case Lloyd's thugs are snooping the board... :)

CV said...

This from ZH...

House Democrat leader Steny Hoyer will today announce that the US will not pass a budget in 2010 as “It isn’t possible to debate and pass a realistic, long-term budget until we’ve considered the bipartisan commission’s deficit-reduction plan, which is expected in December." Yet "the House has never failed to pass an annual budget resolution since the current budget rules were put into place in 1974." The real reason of course is that the budget would indicate new and unprecedented trillions in deficits, which would wreak havoc on Democrat chances to contain their upcoming mid-term election loss to just "landslide" status, instead of what is increasingly shaping up as being more in the "apocalyptic" category. Those whose memory spans longer than 24 hours, will recall that Peter Orszag resigned yesterday. Something tells us these two events may be correlated. In the meantime, we are now convinced that realizing the hopelessness of its political situation, the administration and the Fed will now create the most ridiculous, unprecedented, destructive and historic market melt up in history to preserve any chances of demonstrating just how "effective" their market manipulation, pardon, economic resurgence efforts are. If you are short, be ready to have all your shares forcibly called in over the next 4 months.

McFearless said...

i agree I and C, yesterday was a better level to short, not so much yet today.

C,

I believe it was reported earlier this month that he couldn't sell it so decided to rent....

karen said...

CV, you don't think i'd be a lot of fun on port? anyway, he doesn't drink so he's perfect for me : )

Ben, i fear that BR is a contrary indictor.. RR, too! then again i am full agreement with your 1:20.. and seriously, how much longer can a jobless recovery continue.. let alone be TYPICAL!!

I better put some limit sells in to save myself in the event e*trade goes down on the next leg down.

McFearless said...

"the administration and the Fed will now create the most ridiculous, unprecedented, destructive and historic market melt up in history to preserve any chances of demonstrating just how "effective" their market manipulation, pardon, economic resurgence efforts are."


oh right, b/c their efforts at reflation have been such a success that this will surely follow the same path....er, wait a minute, no, they have failed in every way with every effort....and do not bring up the stock market rally, it's complete nonsense to state the market rally is proof that the Fed's plans are working.

I had no idea how popular views like this were going to get, quite amazed really, I see the ideas on social mood being rejected by virtually everyone over the next 12 months, of course, what else is new.

BinT said...

CV,

I do think if we ever get out of the Obama era, that the US will be loathe to vote for a socialist again. Sure, something for nothing sounds fine, and Krugman says we never have to pay the bill, but I think most Americans, even poor ones, aspire to something better.

I have always been a happy ant, happy to be able to better myself, and happy to be an ant. Grasshoppers confuse me....

I-Man said...

I need to stop looking at my p&l before I do something cheap.

karen said...

There goes my jaw:

http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68971717047885

(AP:WASHINGTON) Unsafe consumer loans for mortgages and credit cards were at the heart of the financial crisis. Banks handed out loans to people who couldn't afford them. The banks ended up with trillions in bad debt.

The financial overhaul being crafted by House-Senate negotiators would tighten protections for consumers. It would create a regulator to oversee financial products and services such as mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. The regulator is intended to make those products safer and easier to understand.

BinT said...

I will say we are having a called meeting at the salt mine tonight. Discussion will be on how to cut overhead, since the medicare cuts may be permanent. Of course, my partners, all but one are younger than me, and as Ben said, I have always been relatively frugal. But in my business overhead translates into labor costs, and I imagine there are thousands like us across the country in the same business who are planning cuts in overhead next year.

karen said...

Tue Jun 22 13:30:00 EDT 2010 | Briefing.com
Results from an auction of 2-year Treasuries was released at the top of the hour. The auction drew strong interest as the dollar demand was $138.0 billion, which is the second highest of the previous eight auctions (including this one). The auction produced a bid-to-cover of 3.5 and an indirect bidder participation rate of 41.4%. During the prior auction the bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.93 and indirect bidder participation was 36.2%.

Treasuries have ticked higher in response to the announcement. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is now up almost 15 ticks and its yield is back below 3.20%. The 2-year Note is flat and its yield stands at 0.70%.

karen said...

thanks, bat.. great link!

karen said...

Merkel's Message

http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/06/merkels-message-to-obama-partys-over.html

CV said...

@karen (re:)

When I read that post earlier about drinking port and winding up naked in the bathroom without remembering how it all happened...

I thought it was YOU, not McF...

Somehow it all made sense to me :-)

karen said...

from ZH: All this bickering and ongoing pissing contests are getting just a little confusing. So now Obama appeals, and appellate court overturns the overturned decision, only to capture even more of the rig workers' wrath? Drillers now all over the place, and for some reason BP is up, as if the firm will be doing fresh drilling in the GoM any time soon. And somehow this news is casuing the EUR to spike. Sigh.

karen said...

confirmed:

White House's offshore-drilling moratorium blocked by judge: report
06/22/2010 01:49:37 PM

karen said...

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Andrew J. Hall, the former Citigroup Inc. energy trader whose proposed $100 million payout became a symbol of excessive Wall Street compensation, raised $1.08 billion for the offshore version of a commodities fund.

Hall’s firm, now owned by Occidental Petroleum Corp., lined up 37 investors for its Astenbeck Offshore Commodities Fund II Ltd., according to a filing yesterday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund began raising money in 2008, the filing shows.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aP.acl3Zd9O0

Anonymous said...

test

Nic said...

Mr Topstep is back!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4AeNBI30uk

Nic said...

I think I might try the two week free trial, free is free right?
http://www.drakoncapital.com/futuresmonster.php

I-Man said...

Thx nic, was wonderin what happened to those dudes...

I like em.

McFearless said...

Karen,

for a time in 08 RR was def. a contrary indicator, he held on to his PTI too long....I'm not sure he is anymore, maybe on gold? :)

BR on housing, I agree with him, maybe I"M the contrary indicator.

karen said...

love that Danny!

McFearless said...

well, near term as I've been posting all day I'm not sure about the count, but I did just remember something I posted right before I left last week, which was that max pain was at 1130 and therefore we'd see it before options expy or very early the following week, well we can put a check market on that at least.

McFearless said...

I've been missing the TopStep videos, those are really quite valuable.

Nic said...

Sorry Karen and McF but who is RR?

AmenRa said...

I'm just in awe that the House will not pass a budget for 2011. The revolution will not be televised. They've spent so much already that passing a budget will show how utterly clueless they are. Dow 400 here we come!

karen said...

Richard Russell

McFearless said...

RR = richard Russell
RP = robert Prechter
RIP = stubborn longs.

McFearless said...

I've sat around for hours and hours trying to imagine what a DOW at 400 would be like, there is no clear idea on what that actually means though....all I know is that it's possible, and perhaps highly probable.

karen said...

i am fascinated with JNK.. the trend turned up yesterday (13 crossed back over the 34) but rather ominous on a seven month chart.. H&S, anyone?

karen said...

BEN! you have me in stitches! i can think of a lot of stuff that would be more fun that sitting around for hours and hours trying to imagine what a DOW at 400 would look like.. i am pitying your wife right now!

CV said...

@Amen

Forget about "passing" one...

They're not even bothering to draw one up...

These are the guys that vote themselves pay raises every year, and EXEMPT themselves from the HC bill...

Nic said...

Nice trade today I-Man

McFearless said...

"i am pitying your wife right now!"


eh, pretty common reaction when people meet me, lol!!!

McFearless said...

The I had good trades yesterday too, he's got a whole new outlook on life. Props to the I.

I-Man said...

flat.

McFearless' wife said...

I just want McFearless to go long.

I-Man said...

thx yall... that was fun.

karen said...

I'm just putting this out there for thot:

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

The year-over-year % change has now gone positive which means that "China has stopped exporting deflation."

This is a noteworthy event for investors because this could end up being an event-trigger for inflation to return. Should this occur, this would change the dynamics of the market ... therefore, it is important for investors to start observing the movement of the 10 and 30 year bond yields in order to monitor this possibility.

CV said...

@ben

I've sat around for hours and hours trying to imagine what a DOW at 400 would be like, there is no clear idea on what that actually means though

See... here's the thing...

CV does have a decent idea...

It would mean many "goods & services" that you take for granted...

- Fully stocked shelves in grocery stores
- At Wal Mart
- At Home Depot
- Gas at the pumps
- Uninterrupted electricity into your home
- Waste removal

liquor, cigarettes, basic personal health items

Would NOT be in abundant supply...

Therefore, it would be a very wise move to convert as much CASH as possible into GOODS (while you still can)...

CV said...

DL will be trading e-minis through it...

karen said...

keep this in mind:

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/6/18/gold-vs-dollar-correlation.html

McFearless said...

CV,

yeah, I think that's a pretty safe assumption, the country in general will not function like it does today if we get a DOW 400, not sure what that means for any of us, I know my business will hardly continue to exist if that plays out.

I-Man said...

Now I'm straight exhausted...

Putting a new sell-limit in for 1102.25 and taking a breather.

CV said...

the infamous "KT" revisited...

McFearless said...

Where is DL?

arbitrage789 said...

CV,

Why not?

(Assuming I have electricity and internet).

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