A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Weather warning!!! The creditcane has been upgraded to a Cat 6 from a Cat 3. CYA
SPXBearish long day. Closed below mid of long day on 6/15/10. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is anxiously waiting for retest. Still above the SMA(21) but now below the SMA(233). Midpoint still above EMA(10). Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1091.60). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day (did confirm bullish engulfing). Down move is over. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) held (91.80 is next). Back above the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.40).
VIXBullish long day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps (still holds true)." Back above the SMA(55) and back above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (yet).
GOLDBullish short day (but did confirm bearish engulfing). Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1258.30).
EURUSDBearish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1936).
JNKBearish short day. Tested the 50.0% retrace (failed). Still above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish long day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint back below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95). Can you hear the cries of GS "Tio! Tio! No Mas!"
BPSpinning top day. Almost an inverted hammer (I said almost). Still trapped by candle body from the long down day on 6/9/10. Still below the 0.0% retrace. Still below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.86).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested 14.2% retrace (failed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.58). "It's a safe haven...for now."
75 comments:
Headline seen on CNBC at 3PM:
"DOW ON TRACK FOR BEST MONTH SINCE MARCH."
More CNBC...
"Is Drop in Home Sales Good News?"
C,
have been enjoying your headline pulling last few days.....some thoughts for the prudent from EWI:
these are from the May EWT:
Look at figure 6 from the April issue and notice that at the rally peak of February 1931, the 3-year cycle was topping out. On the chart is is marked, "peak of cycle; optimism still dominant." At that time the DOW had rallied back to the level of the 1929 low, and records show that investors and economists continued to declare that the worst was ove. The same thing should happen this time, on a larger scale......
it goes on
This scenario implies tat the banking system will not close down all at once; the crisis will come in waves, each one more devastating than the last....it also implies that the accompanying bear market in commodities will be drawn out over the entire time, keeping inflationists committed until the bitter end.
Continue to keep the bulk of your money in the safest possible forms.
CV
LMAO at that first headline. Did the news readers start freaking out again?
@McF
There's a headline running right now...
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Obama-Administration-Knew-About-Deepwater-Horizon-35000-Feet-Well-Bore.html
and links it to a plan to invade Iran...
But I hardly find this credible...
sounds like more conspiracy theory nonsense to me, which is only going to get a lot worse...but I'm going to read it anyway.
Ra,
thanks much for answering my 3lb question on the bottom thread.
As for the death cross, LB's got a good idea there, I'm just a novice at looking at the stuff but from what Iv'e been reading there are so serious astro implications right toward the end of this month early next month as well.
Beware the Death Cross.
The candle for the England football team may be an Abandoned Baby. Good luck USA against Algeria, the team has shown talent and heart. This is where the rubber meets the road. Who wants to show up?
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ah8dizHgptr4&pos=8
McChrystal Offers Resignation After Magazine Report
By Roger Runningen and Nicholas Johnston
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- General Stanley McChrystal offered his resignation after he and aides made comments in a magazine article disparaging administration officials over their handling of the war in Afghanistan, according to a government official.
McChrystal, who was summoned to a White House meeting tomorrow to discuss his comments with President Barack Obama, verbally offered to resign to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, said the official, who asked not to be identified.
Obama said after a Cabinet meeting at the White House that he is waiting to speak with the general before making a decision on his future. The remarks by McChrystal and his aides “showed poor judgment,” the president said.
Why is it impossible to read comments above 200 mark. I tried clicking at the bottom and top of the empty screen.
No problem up to 199. Weird.
From Can
Anon
Click the "newest" link at the bottom of the page. The link at the top never seems to work on blogger.
@Amen, thanks for the response.
Doesn't work. I tried all sorts of tricks. Even googled for an answer.
I miss reading comments made during the day.
Can
@Ra - thanks again for the most excellent charts...
on the previous thread- it appears manny waded in ready to debate-
I have to agree w/ CV though- sometimes its best to agree to disagree-
manny- a good man- has a lot of compassion for people-
but if you run that out to its logical limit- no-one would be allowed to suffer for their stupid actions-
as the Buddhists say- life is suffering
@ahab-
i do a funny thing, cv kinda called me out on it, in a "lite" way one time...i listen to the nightly MSM news... what is the machine telling the sheeple...
...in any case, the advertisement from big pharma to the baby boomers is dominant... big pharma is helping us to live longer...read SS
tonight there was an article on child obesity...i've been observing this casually, the kids, and americans adults, in general are getting really over weight - the serving size in typical restaurants is enormous, at least here in Tejas, read healthcare
Wes
Here is why kids are getting fat ... and its not fat that causes it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM
Nic-
...you are lovely, but, 1:30 hour video...from a day trader...;-)
Wes-
regardless of the serving size- no-one has a gun to my head making me eat all of it-
sometimes you step away- because you are full- consider- if the restaurant served a whole side of beef when you order a steak- are you going to eat the whole thing?
not sure of your big Pharma point
Nic-
exactly!!!!! everyone has their head's in the wrong direction-
sugar and simple carbs are the obesity epidemic- huge sugar and carbs- insulin imbalance- obesity-
pretty much it- low calorie rice cakes are not the answer
@ahab - sorry for not being more clear, yes, for you and me and... cv,... we step away...but, we are not necessarily typical, no?...nothing elitist in that, but, people don't think to take care of themselves - it is an epidemic...hence, big pharma and healthcare...follow the money, or debt. however you think of it...
"manny- a good man- has a lot of compassion for people-"
I agree, I've been talking to Jeff on these blogs for about two years now, he seems to me to be a good guy, and a lot more compassionate than me.
there is a pattern to obesity that they traced back to the Roman Empire at the socionomics institute, I'll see if I can dig it up....
people don't think to take care of themselves - it is an epidemic...hence, big pharma and healthcare...follow the money, or debt. however you think of it...
If I follow your point- because people aren't taking care of their health- then we need big pharma and national health care- to step in and handle things-
is that it? just trying to understand- although- unless someone is a child and unable to make their own decisions- not sure I care
b22 @ 8:26
agreed-
but-
as Popeye would say- "I am what I am and that's all that I am"
so that's how I look at it- I don't try to be that which is not in my nature
@ahab,
dude, no...
i do not think that we NEED, as CV would clarify, big pharma and nat health care to do anything,
.., i think big pharma and the whole health care system are leaches on the backs of the tax payers...
>> but if you run that out to its logical limit- no-one would be allowed to suffer for their stupid actions-
Ahab, I submit that is *not* the "logical" limit but an "extreme", one even a lefty like me does not aspire to...
Wes-
my man- guess I wasn't catching on-
but please refer to Popeye reference @ 8:46(-:!!!!
@wes
The only thing the CV likes about "big pharma" is that they pay for a helluva lotta TV advertising (so that sports get aired on TV)...
TDF... coming up!
ahab,
nobody commented on this from the bottom of the last thread, ....thoughts?
http://www.numbersusa.com/content/news/june-21-2010/senators-challenge-pres-obama-rumors-executive-order-amnesty.html
@wunsacon
I'm never against helping a brother out... In fact, I'm usually the first in line to do so...
My only thing is that I like to be able to look straight into the eyes of the person I'm helping out (and have it a "one to one" experience)... Instead of being ordered by some ruler to SEND HIM (to the ruler) & HIS CRONIES some money so that they can do the helping out on my behalf...
Totally pumped over the US/Algeria match tomorrow. I really like their chances to break out of their Game 3 slump in World Cups.
As LB said above....they've showed talent and heart.
The S&P is in VERY bad shape. Horriblus Maximus. My first scenario from Slide 3 from my last report (http://www.scribd.com/doc/32987378/SP500-Update-13-June-10) seems to be the correct interpretation. The only subtlety is that we maybe seeing a triangle being carved from the 5/25 lows. So, maybe several days of chop before a collapse.
The situation does not look good. 1076 looks like the key support now, "if" there is any support.
Wes,
In short, sugary soda, fruit juices and sugar in everything is killing children.
High fructose corn syrup is not the same as glucose and the video explains the science of why. And corn syrup is in just about every processed food there is.
It shows the correlation between the size of soda drinks and the amount of sugar in them vs the increase in obesity. Why has the sugar increased so much? Why is it in everything? To disguise all the salt.
Why is there salt in the drinks? so we drink more.
Why is there so much salt in processed food? Because they put it in to replace the flavour of the fat that the anti-fat people made them remove.
It is poison.
@McF
Frankly, I think the immigration issue is just a "lightning rod"...
I'd rank it LOWER on my list of priorities than some other issues like:
1. BUDGET
2. BUDGET
3. BUDGET
4. BUDGET
5. BUDGET
100. BUDGET
We'd be getting pretty close by then...
In the last hour I got a chance to read BR's "speech" to the nation.....that guy is unreal. I think he's becoming a Statist in order to become controversial or something. I don't think he really believes what he writes. At least I hope he doesn't...
@Andy
"Horriblus Maximus"
LMFAO!
Is that like... one of those latin definition terms that they used to use when they STOP FRAMED the Road Runner or the Coyote?
@Andy
I read that speech too...
Started to comment... Only stopped because I honestly was too lazy to type in my username and password...
I figured it wasn't worth the effort...
Stuffed Turkey
@Andy
Actually... I started in to writing a parody of that speech...
Maybe it will be published some day...
@ahab - we cool...
@cv - TDF coming up soon, i'm jazzed - thanks...
@nic - i am with you girlfriend, it is an absolute shame what we feed our kids...
C,
It's not so much the immigration idea as it is that of letting someone that did something illegal just get away with it...you know, sort of like the public already has seen with banksters, the Wizard(s) are really starting to press the wrong buttons now.
b22-
my impression is that the Obama administration is full on illegal immigrant = American citizen-
if only to smooth over and seal the next presidential election-
but maybe it has more to do with borders- I mean really- what the hell are those good for?
but in the end- if he sues AZ- then that will be a colossal blunder- states will feel violated-
but maybe Obama is not too bright- and doesn't understand the nation's mood
re BR's post-
I actually agree w/ a gasoline tax-
you have to force the issue w/ the consumers-
oil is not going to last forever- better to prepare for it now-
a wise country thinks ahead
@cv-
did you know that the Tour of California...
...'s foundation level sponsor is Amgen?
...inventors/makers of EPO! - talk about ironic...to the max...
@ahab
Thinking ahead...
When was the last time anybody did that?
Not that I think it's a bad idea...
I've just given up on the idea that any GROUP (large or small - whether it be a NATION or SMALL BAND OF BLOG REFUGEES) would, or could ever pull that off...
Actually... McF is my new hero in that respect... As I learned today, ANYONE who could sit for hours and contemplate DOW 400 has my complete attention... :-)
EURUSD 1.2264 and falling
EURCHF 1.3520 and falling
*If 90 day Treasury bill was 5 bps higher before the last FOMC does that mean they'll say the range is now 0.0% - .20%?
@Ahab. Indeed...that was the only point I agreed with him on.
I personally think we need a massive gasoline (scaled in over a few years) tax with some sort of refund back to the lowest earners because a big gas tax is regressive.
Generally speaking...over the next several decades we will need to become much more energy efficient. A big tax on gasoline seems like the most elegant approach to get there quickly. We'll get their eventually, but a higher prices at the pump now will get us there sooner.
No "state mandated" solutions....just let the economy sort it out.....
I would DISMANTLE the Dept of Energy and basically all the other money we spend in the name of "energy efficiency"...it's all a waste of time and effort and creates huge unintended consequences.
If you want more of something, subsidize it. If you want less of something, then tax it.
@wes
Totally!... And totally to my point...
Anyway... LET THE WHEELSUCKING BEGIN!
Trying to catch up here tonight. Mrs. mcHAPPY and lil' mcHAPPY are coming home tomorrow. Bedroom has been ready for weeks - just needed a baby.
Anyways....
Trying to catch up on some comments from the last few days:
Andy: Yes, cried. No sobbing but very emotional. The greatest moment of my life - even better than the flash crash lol.
Ben: I'm confused (granted haven't put a lot of thought in to it) about the B wave you've mentioned. Would this imply you are expecting a new high? i.e. break of 1219?
Andy 9:06: I was looking back at the May 31/June 6 charts a couple of nights ago and liked that one as well (878). My question to myself, you and anyone who'd care to take a stab: at 900 level, is this the end of a minor 3, minor 5 and intermediate 1, or the end of a correction?
Probably asking for a bit too much there but any insights to get some other people's views is appreciated.
And CV,
July 5th? What are you expecting?
andy-
Dept of Energy- what a joke- right after the Dept of Education- the biggest joke of all-
it could be abolished tomorrow with zero effect on education
"Ben: I'm confused (granted haven't put a lot of thought in to it) about the B wave you've mentioned. Would this imply you are expecting a new high? i.e. break of 1219?"
Hell no McHappy....I'm referring to the small B in Andy's charts...last S&P update.
@Amen
How much have they already "rolled over" this year thus far?
Isn't it like 700-800b?
And it's only June... And there WILL BE NO BUDGET...
Yikes!
Should've tried electing someone who'd at least RUN A DAIRY QUEEN...
BHO: "I'm the POTUS... I'm the CEO & CmdrIC of a great nation"
KAOS Agent: "I find that hard to believe"
BHO: "Would you believe a former state Senator from a corrupt political machine?"
KAOS Agent: (shakes his head)
BHO: "Dairy Queen Soda Jerk?"
KAOS Agent (rolls his eyes)
BHO: Community Organizer?
My own thoughts on question to Andy is if we reach to 870-900 range in the next few weeks, it would be the end of minor 3. I'd be looking for nothing higher than 1040 at that point with most likely some serious resistance taking shape in a triangle around 1000 (because we know the *utterly useless* fascination with round numbers - see DOW 10K) and a final break to the downside. This most likely would take us up to the end of the year.
841 would be the 1.618 of minor 1 assuming 1040.78 was the end of minor 1.
Ben,
You are envisioning slide 6 on June 13th with the "b" around 1150?
@mcHappy
You get a PASS because I know you've been occupied with MUCH more important things...
But... You'll have to browse thru the thread to gain context...
I was only anticipating July 5 as being POSSIBLY the date of the GOLDEN CROSS (50MA over 200MA)...
LB suggests, correctly, that it is an ominous sign on the immediate horizon...
@wes
BTW - You heard "Lance" was riding again this year right?
CV,
Right... sorry I did see that comment from LB. Thanks for the pass! My mind is racing tonight trying to 'catch up' with the last few days.
Good read on why a bankrupt BP will do more damage than Lehman: http://jsmineset.com/2010/06/22/jims-mailbox-470/
McHappy,
yeah, that's the one.
Ben
Planetary alignment in full effect: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/t-minus-7-days-libor-induced-liquidity-crunch
McHappy:
One of the things I've learned to do (via the school of hard knocks) is to just take it "one leg at a time."
i.e. Why worry about what to label a move to 850-900 if we get one? A move to 875 would be a fairly dramatic and profitable decline no matter what you call it.
That said...if we were to drop to 875 (for example) from here, it would have to be labelled a big ABC down from the highs until proven otherwise.
Best wishes to McHappy Jr. and the family. Hope everyone is doing OK. The births of my two daughters rank as the two best days of my life.
best exchange tonight on TBP-
BR says-
I got no problem with tax cuts — but you gotta PAY FOR THEM.
Curmudgeon says-
BR- if you have to pay for tax cuts, well that’s not fiscally stimulative. I ask you sir, are you now or have you ever been a non-Keynsian?
LOL- and- no shit!
all have a good night
cv@10:13 -
errrr, yes, i did, and the whole rest of the freakin' peloton ;-)
...my friend, this is what i am into...
Andy,
Good advice. Just to be sure I am clear:
"i.e. Why worry about what to label a move to 850-900 if we get one? A move to 875 would be a fairly dramatic and profitable decline no matter what you call it."
Hopefully at 850-900, the charts would most likely show a solid 5 wave decline. At that point the retrace would be watched looking for clues along the way to get the 'right' count.
Am I correct in this thinking? I really need to work on my setups for entries and exits of positions.
BTW Andy,
Have you looked back at April 4th, specifically slide 4?
as the Buddhists say- life is suffering
....Southerners have an even pithier saying: Life is a bitch, and then you die.
...Not for some of us, though.
...i can't imagine it BinT...
@ahab (10:17)
"needs" to spout Keynesian crap because probably 90% of the Fusion clients he signed up in the last year are well heeled "clueless" liberals...
Nothing wrong with that... As long as you can look at yourself in the mirror every evening and convince yourself that you're just siphoning money off of people because you told them what they wanted to hear over a lobster dinner...
Sounds like a "Great American" (as Kudlow would say)...
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/06/22/interior-secretary-seeks-renew-drilling-stay/
Interior Secretary Salazar Seeks to Reimpose Drilling Moratorium
...ASSHOLE......
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37856183/ns/business-us_business/
Oil spill puts Gulf oyster industry on ice
Suppliers on other coasts struggle to meet new demand
...I have friends on the coast. First the idiots at BP, then the idiots in power try to end all the remaining drilling jobs.Whammer slammer...----
...Community organizer....joins the lexicon of pithy insults.....
But there's no f'in BUDGET!!!!!!!
The numbers must be "horriblus maximus" (hat tip AT) for them to not even have one to present.
AND the state/municipal budgets are due by July 1st. They are broke also and may not be able to pass a budget due to deficits. July is going to be a fun month :-)
@Amen
T-minus 7 days :-)
CV
That means two days of major volatility followed by a three day weekend.
To Anon at the top of the thread.. if you make a post (after 200) you will be deposited at the last comment... otherwise try another browser, GOOG's Chrome, for instance, free and easy, what more could you ask for.
I'm currently in the Pursuit of Happiness thanks to Andy and Lissie.. will resume from where I left off, now.
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